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13 M E1I‘C h 1958

DAILY BRIEF

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*g$go\rietiIQl13l\[l/E§V launching attempt: The Guided
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.,_\
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>140 Satellite Vehicle from its Tyura Tam

ballistic missile
test range at about 1935 GMT
on 12.March, but that upon
completion of the countdown an undeter ' ' I

causing an extensive delay.

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I I. -ASIA-AFRICA
*Indonesia (as of 0100 EST 13 March): Inclonesian
governiiiefifforces which captured the Central Sumatran
oil center of Pakanbaru are moving westward along the
g/A highway leading to the dissident strongholds of Bukittinggi
and Padang. They are meeting some resistance from
small dissident units which have managed to regroup
several miles outside Pakanbaru.
(Page 2)= (Map) I I

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King Saud‘s The King's long-waning reputation

7"; pOS1t1()l'14 appears to have suffered a serious
G
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in the Arab Middle East

I

setback as a result of the misfiring of his campaign

against
added
Nasir G To Saud's reputation for prodigality has been im-
an impression of naivete and subordination to Western
. .
. .
O

perialism Saud, beset with problems of his own security,

effective influence
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becomes less capable of exercising

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thus
the Arab Middle East and specifically of strengthening
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the Iraqi-Jordanian Federation.

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government and the use of tribal elements, resemble the
charges which Syrian leftists made against the West in
con-
nection with previous alleged plots. The Cairo
press has
seized on Selwyn Lloyd's stopover in Baghdad as evidence
of British involvement. Alleged involvement
of the oil \
against
company may furnish a pre xtior subsequent action
the pipelines crossing Syria..T Page 4)

Lebanon: Prime Minister Sulh's resignation on 12 March

\

is apparently a maneuver designed to enable him

to reshuffle
his cabinet. Lebanese President Chamoun is
particularly
anxious that elements be brought into the government
which
aspira-
would provide additional support for his second-term focal
1

1 ,»
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tions. Foreign Minister Malik, who is unpopular

and a
overnment's
point for criticism, may be dropped; but the
orientation is likely to remain unchanged.

Taiwan Strait: Unusual Chinese Communist naval

com-
activity, primarily in the Shanghai area,
has been
munications
far as
noted since 1 March and has extended southward as
Foochow and Amoy. This activity suggests the possibility
of impending East China naval and naval air
exercises. It is

13 Mar 58 DAILY BRIEF ii \

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military operation S fig‘ainst the Chinese Nationalists in the
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near future. This and other topics are discussed in the re-
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port of the -IAC Current Intelligence G ro up for the Taiwan

-Strait_Prob1em, covering the period from 13 uary to
12 March 1958.
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-(Pages 5-6)

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France-Tunisia Pr emi er Gaillard has specified that

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Tunisia must moves to re-establish "normal relations"

as the minimum position acceptable to his cabinet. -He agreed
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that regro upi'ng and subse q uen-t evacuation of some Fren ch

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troops might occur -simultaneously with Tunisian fulfillment

7’/0 of French conditions. Ultranationalis-ts in the French cabinet
and parliament can be expected, however, to continue insist-
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position; Gai11ard's sti pula-»
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tions on restoring relations and Paris’ adamant stand on not

ivin u Bizert probably unacceptable to Bourguiba.
e

(Page 7)

The political struggle between President Siles

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‘Bolivia:
and leftist labor leader Juan Lechin has been intensified by
\
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effort s of L ec h1n's suppert ers
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3% -arr e s t an d e xpuls io1ri from Bolivi a of t he rin i
Trotskyite a
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\ Communist leaders
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-see
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linke..d.with.Le‘chin.l (Page 8) (Map -

xii-\ _‘\

v*Cuba: President Batista"'s 45-day suspension of const1_tu-

\§ tional gu ara n tee s on 12 March could pro voke a serious th rea t
~~.
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to his regime and will make difficult the holding of free elec-
tions by 1 June. (Page 9)
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I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC

fioviet Atternpt to Launich or Efilfl

The Guided Missiles Intelligence Committee issued

the following statement on 12 March:

the USSR attempted to launch an ICBM/

\

l \

ESV on 12 March at about 19352, but an unknown maliunc=

tion occurred causing an extensive delay.

This detected Soviet failure to latmch a

is the first
test ICBM or
earth satellite within a few minutes of zero
time, after the valid countdown has begun. The cause of
the lengthy delay is not known at this time. It is not pos-
sible to predict a time for the next attempt at a launching,
as troubles causing delays of several hours‘ duration could
result in still further postponements.

Q
Available evidence does not indicate firmly whether
the attempted latmching was an ICBM or an ESVO However,
lack of activity of certain indicators previously associated
with ESV launchings suggests that of the two possibilities
an attempted ICBM launching was the more likely.

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Pielwria PreSS1n§_!l’1i1£*%rYr§emPaisn in Ceni¥215“r{1%tlTi

Indonesian government forces which captured the Cen-
tral Sumatran oil center of Pakanbaru on 12 March have
begun to move westward along the highway leading to the
dissident strongholds of Bukittinggi and Padang.
some 300 Djakarta goops were
attacking two dissident companies which were defending a
\

junction nine miles outside the city.

At least a part of the main government force of three

to four battalionscoming up the Siak River and overland from
Dumai has probably arrived in Pakanbaru. These units can
be expected to give impetus to the westward drive.

Meanwhile, the shelling of Padang by two navy corvettes,

accompanied by orders to all ships in the harbor to leave by
1000 on 13 March, may be the prelude to an amphibious at-
tack in that area. According to a military official in Djakarta
3 1/2 battalions as well as the navy's 900-man marine corps
are available for this operation.

In Djakarta, the prospects of any agreement between

President Sukarno and former vice president Hatta appear to
have all but vanished. Hatta has indicated that there is no
basis for compromise as long as force is being used against
the dissidents, and there is some reason to believe that he
may soon be taken into "protective custody" by the military.
Sukarno is on an "inspection" trip of Java and East Indo-
nesia calling for support of the military campaign against
the dissidents. His trip is to be climaxed on .16 March with
an address to a mass meeting in Bandung.

SEGR+E—'P

13 Mar 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 2

Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177778
 Q
Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177778
*""~
“TOP-S-EGR-E-'I-'

Decline iniKing Saud's Position

King Saudis position as a senior spokesman in the
Islamic world appears to have been seriously damaged
by Nasir's expose of Saud's efforts to overthrow him, al-
legedly in connivance with the West. The use of ridicule
in the unprecedented public attack on the guardian of
Islamls holy places highlights the humiliation to which
Saud has been exposed at home and elsewhere in the Arab
world. Saud has been described as the head of a decadent
social system, and a conspirator with Western political
and oil interests against the popular Arab aspiration for
independence and imity. Saud is vulnerable to such charges
at home because his pro-Western orientation has not pro-
duced the desired solutions of the Gulf of Aqaba and
Buraimi disputes.
Sand increased internal security precautions after ex-
plosives found in his palace last spring were traced to the
Egyptian military attache. Leadership of the royal body-
guard and the tribal auxiliaries, as well as the Defense Min-
istry, is now entrusted to loyal sons. Dissident members of
the royal family, including the crown prince and the interior
minister, have been increasingly excluded from participation
in policy making.

Although incipient opposition groups in Saudi Arabia ap-

pear to lack cohesion and leadership at the moment, Saud in
the light of Nasir's attack now is likely to be even more con-
cerned over his security problems. He may therefore be
able to give even less attention and support to the Iraqi-
Jordanian federation than he indicated he intended to do in
his recent interview with the Jordanian and Iraqi foreign
ministers. Lesser potentates in the area, such as the
Ruler of Kuwait, are also even less likely than before to
risk an attack fro '

with
l .

Iradgagd Jordan.
if‘

—*1=e1=—sseasi-‘

13 Mar 58 AY>'|5F6\T€d‘rE>r §éE'Z1'sé§E'c3'1‘9'/'55/25 'c'b's'1'7%?'7s Page 3

 Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177778
__,-—5E€-RE?‘ ,.

Lnaqipppppgiptting. Against Sy ria

\

Another anti-Nasir plot financed by the Iraqi Petroleum

Company has been reported‘
The oil company is alleged to have placedl
the incredible sum of $140,000,000 at Iraqi Prime-~Mi_nister
\ \

Nuri~Said?s disposal for action against -Syria. The plotters

contemplate the formation of a ",fr_e,e_, Syrian" government com-
posed of Syrian political refugees now in Turkey and Iraq,
Other alleged details include the possible use of tribes on
the Syrian border in a coup, and the assassination of Presi-
dent Nasir.
'

‘ex-Syrian
dictator_Shishakli and other political refugees were plotting
\

in Baghdad toward these -ends. Nuri~Said is reported to have

intimated to the Pakistanis that -"grave happ " '

e ected in Syria before the end of -March.

possibly a reflection of ideas being discussed in Iraqi
government circles, which usually react to adverse events in
Syria in such terms.

The Damascus and Cairo press meanwhile are inter-

preting Selwyn Lloyd's Baghdad stopover as evidence of
British involvement in a new series of plots against "Arab
nationalism represented by the UAR." The governmente
controlled Egyptian news agency accuses the US Government
and American oil companies of plotting with Israel to invade
the UAR.
The charges involving Western-owned oil companies,
coming after .Nasir's reference to oil interests‘ associating
with Saudis alleged plot, suggest that the'.1UAR leader may bei 1

considering some action against the pipelines crossing Syria.

The "UAR now controls the principal sea and land routes used
for oil transit, \ \

sseesrsz
13 Mar 58 CENTRAL lNTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 4
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12 MARpH ‘I958
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71213

Apprev\/ed for R'éi€§§éT2'E>'1“§/os/20 003177778

 Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177778

{G —"1=eP-seen-E13 "e

Report‘No, 1l*i_oi the IAC Currentflintelligence Groupfiior

The Taiwan Strait Problem 0*CoveringtheykPeriod Fromlilp
March"1958
C ‘

_F_‘ebruary to 12
‘

1. There were no significant combat operations in

the area during the period. \ \

2. Unusual Chinese Communist naval communications

activity in the East China area has been noted since 1 March.
Fleet Headquarters in Peiping and Shanghai are involved, to-
gether with naval air activities in the Shanghai~Ningpo area
and various East China naval stations extending southward as
far as Foochow and Amoy.

The sigiificance of this unusually high communica-

tions activity is not yet apparent; it may indicate impending
East China naval andnaval air exercises. It is not regarded
as indicative of Communist intent to launch military opera-
F‘°‘“”’“”“i“% inese Nationalists in the near future.

3.
redeployment of army
\an extensive
\

units may be planned, with some perhaps‘ moving to the

Southeast China area. Such a redeployment would be caused,
at least partially, by Peiping's announced decision to with-
draw its troops from North Korea. \
\

4. The Chinese Communist jet light bombers which

were deployed to the South China area last October have
now probably been withdravm to North China. On 23 Feb-
ruary, possibly 20 IL.-28's were noted flying from Suichi
to Hankow. Later, on 25 February, an additional 16 IL~28's
followed the same route and, after a short stop at Hankow,
six departed for Tangshan, home base of the 10th Air Divi-
sion. These movements probably represent the return of
a regiment of the 10th Air Division which moved into South
China last autumn to engage in joint exercises with jet
fighters at Canton and Suichi. There are still about 90
Chinese Communist jet light bombers within range of
Taiwan. These are located in th .-Hanszchow-Nanking area
just south of the Yangtze River:/T \

13 M31‘ 53 AasattatarFaarégé;'2?>?§/6é72o“é6é1'?‘%'%%8 Page 5

 2019/08/20 C03177778
3
Approved for Release:

V TOP

5. Two British merchant ships, en route from Hong

Kong to Foochow, were briefly detained in the Matsu area
on orders of Chinese Nationalist naval headquarters on 7
March. The Nationalists’ motive is unknown, but it may
have been to dramatize their reiteration of their "port clo-
sure" policy on 3 February. This is the first Chinese Na-
tionalist interference with British shipping in the Taiwan
Strait since the summer of 1957, These interceptions may
presage further harassment of non- Communist shipping,
bufg,.»i"t' is believed unlikely that the Chinese Nationalists will

L/again fire on such shipping.

‘ ‘

‘TOP slzcasrz
13 Mar 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULtFTlN Page 6
Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177778
 2019/08/20 C03177778
Q
Approved
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for Release:
—‘i-E€Rfi‘7“—

111. THE WEST

Gai1%e1id'S Terms Z911 Tunisia P§2Pab,1Y Una°°‘?Pt3P.1§.

French Premier Gaillard appears willing to modify

several important details of the minimum conditions his
cabinet says Tunisia must satisfy before "normal rela»
tions" with France can be re-established. In talks with
US and UK good offices representatives, he agreed that
the regrouping at Bizerte of four or five thousand French
troops now stationed "around Tunis" could occur "simul-
taneously" with the return of French civilians to their
Tunisian domiciles, return of French consuls to their posts,
and restoration of liberty of circulation for French troops.
He also stated categorically that the regrouped troops would
be evacuated from Tunisia, but adamantly rejected "any
formula which would provoke the departure of the French
from Bizerte." Gaillard also indicated his willingness to
separate the questions of neutral control of the airfields
and of the frontier.

Gaillard's willingness to relax the cabinet's "minimum"

demands may be motivated partly by a recommendation re-
portedly made by the French commander in Tunisia in favor
of evacuation of ground forces and abandonment of the air-
fields, and by evidence that many French civilians in Tunisia
see Bourguiba as their best hope of protecting their status
and property. Nevertheless, ultranationalists in the French
cabinet and parliament can be expected to continue insisting
on an even stiffer French position which may hamstring the
good offices negotiations.
Gaillardts demands, particularly the insistence on re-
maining at Bizerte, are unlikely to be readily accepted by
Bourguiba, who continues to demand a substantial evacuation
by 20 March, the anniversary of TL1I1iSi3.'S independence.

-SEGRFT’

13 Mar 53 A'55'rB§7é'E1?6rFEEi'駧é;'Eb?Za76's726'E6éT%'ii%s Page '7

 Approved for Relea s/e: 2019/0 8/20 C031 77778
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Civil War Threatens in Bolivia

Strikes begun on 1,1 March in the Bolivian mines by Comm

munist and Trotskyite followers of leftist labor leader Juan
Lechin will Seriously test the ability of President Siles Zuazo
to retain control of the government. With the pro- and anti==
government forces about equally divided in the mining areas, ,

Siles has thrown a protective cordon of militia and police

around the key city of Oruro and sent a force of 100 miners
into the city to defend it against attack. Another such cordon
is reported to be trying to isolate the town of Catavi, where
the Lechin forces are concentrated"

In La Paz, Siles has reportedly ordered the arrest and

expulsion of certain Trotskyite and orthodox Commtmist leadm
ers who were linked with Juan Lechin. The Presidentfs
ability to implement these orders, however, will depend on
his success in ousting the pro-Lechin chief of secret police,
whose dismissal was reported on 10 March although he was
subsequently granted permission "to stay on for a few days."

—SE€=R-El

13 Mar 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 8

Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177778
 Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177778
as -SE€R-Ed’-"— A

Qluban Government Suspends; Constitutional Guarantees

Cuban President Batista's 45-day suspension of con-
stitutional guarantees on 12 March--the seventh such sus-
pension since January 1957---may result in the most serious
threat to the government since the abortive naval uprising at
Cieniuegos last September. Coming at a time when the na-
tion is preparing for general elections on 1 June, the suspen-
sion may result in the withdrawal of opposition parties from
the campaign and will certainly mock Batista's assurances
that he will hold free elections.

‘Minister Emilio Nunez Portuondo resigned im-

Prime
mediately after guarantees were suspended; the other min-
isters, who resigned briefly, were reappointed under the
premiership of former Foreign Minister Gonzalo Guell,

There was no apparent reason for Batista‘s decision to

suspend constitutional guarantees, and his action may be
considered a tactical error. Rebel leader Fidel Castro's
rejection of church mediation on 11 March had placed
Batista in a more advantageous position since he had at
least nominally supported the Church's proposal for a peace-
ful solution of Cuba's political problems.

adverse reaction to the suspension becomes widespread S

if
it is conceivable that the armed forces, in which
dissatisfac-
tion with Batista has become more pronounced lately, might
move to take control of the situation. It is also possible that
Fidel Castro might take advantage of the situation to call for
a general strike, which he had planned before the end of
March and to intensify his campaign to oust Batista by force.

‘‘‘
,.

13 Mar 58 /-\p}>F<3\;E6r‘o'r R'é|é32é? 'z'6i‘§/6'5/'zo“c'6E>,'1'%7'13's Page 9

 ~ t AF;D{9\1ed_[_0_r_|Rle|ease: 2019/08/20 C03177778
l aqi ‘U1

CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

»l:;~l’I§1:I

s; \»§».§QI
13 March 1958 l§’~:>1-:s~>§

Kati;

\
DAILY BRIEF
{Q-:S*l§:
».»\e~.
\\
§

I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC

: A
~
\
*s9vi<;pj1c1g,M/Esv launching attempt: The Guided
\»_<\3tB\¥\!3
‘I

Fhlissiles "Intelligence Committee; \

\concluded
ii§i€§§{\§{l
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:\:\“>\

to launch an ICBM or Earth

USSR had attempted
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that the ::2t\§fi_\'§

\§
Tam
e"e\~<§s

Satellite Vehicle from its Tyura ballistic missile

\
test range at about 1935 GMT
on 121 March, but that upon I_R.l_i$~:i‘\Y

ma
> \l‘:l'2§‘:>{\‘

d
2&3-ERR;

completion of the cotmt down an un deter If unction

7'

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occurred, causing an extensive delay“
3;-.>_~_-$33

resignation on 12 March
EEEEEE

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14 fm§rim*eEE.l\}Iinister-Su1l1?‘s \

is apparently a maneuver designed to enable him to reshuffle

: 1 <_<\\1e>; ‘k

his cabinet. Lebanese President Chamoun is particularly \\\\

anxious that elements be brought into the government which
would provide additional support for his second-term aspira-
\\ “\-

\
tions. Foreign Minister Malik, who is unpopular and a focal
X

Q poi n tfoMr¥cr'itic is‘m,Hmay b e d ropped; b utthe

overnmen t's
to f~eiiiai%if‘uiT6I1ang"éd;
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The P olitical struggle between Presi en 1 es

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3

1‘ and leftist labor leader Juan Lechin hasbeen intensified by

efforts of Lechin's supporters to seize physical control of Efhkbfi

theiBo1ivian mining area. Meanwhile, Siles has ordered the

arrest and expulsion from Bolivia of the principal Trotskyite and
1
t
I Communist leaders linked with .Lechin.\ "
\\
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,.

\‘==_s\\§?e
»*Cuba: .President Batistais 45=day suspension of constitu-
:§ :
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tional 3uarantees on 12 March could P rovoke a serious threat

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difficult the holding of free elec--

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