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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

22 September 1958 E

DAILY BRIEF

\,-s
I_ THE COMMUNIST 121.00
>1
Taiwan Strait Situation Chinese Nationalist Premier
_
'

Chen Cheng told Ambassador Drumright on 20 September

that Nationalist. patience and endurance are overstrained
and that if the interdiction of the Kinmens is to be lifted
Communist communications and airfields must be destroyed.
Ambassador Drumright believes the Natio n alist s W1'11 un der - »

take military countermea ures within a week to ten days.

\
a(Pas'é Ii -(Map)

USSR: According to the American..Embas'sy in Moscow,

the Taiwan Strait crisis has not given rise to popular appre-
A

hension which during the Middle East crisis of last summer

led to scare buy in g and hoardin g in the Sov1'et Un1on._ Th e '

general consensus‘ among Western diplomats‘ in the USSR is

that the Soviet leaders do not want or even expect war to de-
‘J/Q)
velop from the strait situation. High Soviet Foreign Ministry
i

officials g ave the Finni sh am bassa dor th e i mpression th ere

~

‘ 1

would be no war. Ulbricht reportedly told his central com- 1

mittee colleagues that Moscow expected to bring the strait //

crisis to the United Nations‘ for adjudication, with the ultimate-L
goal of obtaining UN 1

East eerma'ny= An East Germaniparty plenum in mid-

Qctober may adopt measuresto ‘modify quietly the hard course
1

L
-launched by the fifth party congress last July. Such a change L

"

at a time when other satellites are tightening up would

'

Qt the Ulbricht regime's alarm over the growing-discontent in 1

East Germany, exemplified by the large refugee movement to
the West. (Page 5)
\ \

L’
 A (. (
ASIA— AFRICA
t

I I.

Lebanon: Tension in Beirut as a result of the recent

wave of Christian- Moslem kidnappings will probably re-
main high for the next few days. The pro-Chamoun Christ-
ian Phalange party is likely to carry out its threat to call
a protest strike on 22 September and will probably be sup-
ported by other pro- Chamoun groups. Extensive violence,
is however, is not likely prior to Shihab‘s inauguration on 23
September in view of the elaborate precautions taken by
the Lebanese Army. \
\(Page 6)

Jordan: King Husayn, confronted with growing faction-

alism in the government. a'nd_..in the .=.arri1y,. consider-
ing ke y p ersonnel ch a n g es , i nc ludin g rep 1 aceme nt of hi s au-
thoritarian prime minister, Samir Rifai, and Rifai's pro-
tegé, Army Deputy Chief of Staff Sadiq Shara. f

A UN represe ntat'1ve will arrive in Jor d an about 24.semi- Sep-

' '

tember to establish a ""watchdog" mission there. The

official Cairo newspaper Al Ahram, however, has, denied
that Nasir agreed to establishment of elements of such a
mission in the UAR. \
‘(Page 8)

IIL THE WEST

France-- A1 eriai Premier De Gaulle, in statements

which are now public, let it be known that he regards either
independence or integration for Algeria as "unrealistic."
He inay have underestimated, however, the extent of mili-
tary and other opposition to any solution for Algeria other
than integration, and he is likely to face open opposition
"
from the army, possibly during his 2-3 October visit to A1-
'

geria. \
(Page 10) \

J
4

22 Sept as DAILY BRIEF 11

 I‘I'1I\ I-\ flu IW I\ |\ Ifi rru
Approved for Release: 202 0/ 01/23 C02996632
, 4

I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC

Taiwan Strait Situation

Ambassador Drumright, after talks with Chinese Nation-

alistPremier Chen Cheng on 20‘ September, believes within a
week to ten daysrthe Chinese Nationalists will take military
countermeasures against the mainland to break the blockade
of Kinmen. Chen stated that Communist airfields and commu-
nications must be destroyed, since attacks against Communist
artillery emplacements are of doubtful value. He added that
his government would never withdraw from the islands "under
any circumstances" nor agree to their demilitarization or
neutralization, nor agree to a cease-fire. While Chen said
that he was. not speaking with the specific authority of Chiang
Kai-shek, he implied. that Chiang was in favor of even "more
speedy action." Chen implied, however, that American com-
manders would be consulted regarding tactics before action
isltaken.
\ \

Communist jet fighters are flyinggenerallv defensive pa-

trols. ‘Communist
pilots were attack a "big one,"
probably a Nationalist transport engaged in a night airdrop
mission, but when the presence of "two American aircraft"
was reported the pilots were immediately ordered to return
to .their bases. The Taiwan Defense Command, nevertheless,
expects a clash in the near future between Communist fighters
and American night fighters flying cover for the Nationalist
transports.

—'FeP—sseRE—1"

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During the afternoon of 20 September. at least 10 Nation-

alist jet fighters were notedg
flying 50 miles inland in the moy area. Six flights of Chi-
\

nese Communistjjet fighters reacted. to this flight but there

was no engagement. \ \

A study of the Kinmen supply situation by the American

Taiwan Defense Command reveals that as of 14. September,
there were rations for 30 days and ammunition for 34 days
available on the islands. In order to sustain operations for
60 days, without firing, a total of 97 tons of supplies per day
are required, of which approximately 50 tons are transport-
able by air. However, under this plan supplies would be
completely exhausted at the end of the 60 days. The minimum
daily requirement for sustained existence allowing firing of
1,500 rounds of counterbattery artillery fire per day is esti-
mated to be about 309 tons. This total could be cut to 234
-

tons per day if counterbattery fire were excluded. Supplies

for the 47,000 civilians on the islands are not included in
either estimate. During the period 7-19 September, a daily
average of 106 tons has arrived on Kinmen. ‘T
—

Two of the three eight-inch howitzers landed on 20 Sep-

tember were rendered immobile, one damaged by a Nation-
alist mine and one off road in at ditch; The convoy sched-r,
.a-
‘-

uled for 21 September was canceled‘ in order not to provoke

Communist gunfire». American authorities plan to have five
howitzers firing by 23 September.

The pattern of Chinese Communist artillery fire has

leveled off to a steady harassment of the entire island com-
plex with "not a safe place on the island." Whenever a target
of opportunity appears, Communist guns cease harassing
fire and concentrate all fire on the target in order to inter-
dict or destroy it. Nationalist personnel are in shelters most
of the time. The Communists apparently now are using newer
ammunition, which isvery effective. Shell fragments indi-. -

cate that at least some of the ammunition is of Soviet manu-

facture.
‘

-res-ssens-T

22 Se p t 58 ~

|=|\|TnA| |r\|'r|=|||r:|:r\|r|: n|||||:1-nu Page 2

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2020/01/23 C02996632
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7

Tatan and Erhtan are now illuminated at night by Commu-

nist searchlights, which prevents the Nationalist garrisions
there from moving or working safely in the open. The Com- A

munists have also used searchlights to illuminate Nationalist

transports on resupply-airdrop missions.

Communist China continues to number its warnings to the

United States, in an apparent effort to underscore its relative
restraint and‘ American "provocations" in the present situation.
In its "ninth grave warning" on 21- September, Communist
China's Foreign Ministry declared that the United States has
ignored "repeated warnings" and "disregarded the progress"
of the Sino-American talks in Warsaw. There is still no indi-
cation that Peiping considers that American convoying activi-
ties warrant military cotmteraction at this time. Referring to
the warnings issued by Peiping's Foreign Ministry, a People's
Daily editorial on 21 September states only that 600,000,000
Chinese will fight "if" the United States should "impose a war
on us ."
A

The editorial for the first time in recent months acknow-

ledges what appears to be the true estimate of the Chinese
Communist leaders regarding American nuclear capability,
stating,"We know very well the immense destructive power of
atomic weapons." Although it repeats Peiping's generalized
boast that "people and not weapons" are decisive in war, it
declares that any American nuclear attack on the mainland
would result in an attack on the United States "by the same
means." The passage on retaliation is attributed to Khru-
shchev's 19 September letter to President Eisenhower, sug-
gesting that Communist China does not possess nuclear weap-
ons of its own.

The People’s Daily editorial continues Peiping's effort

to develop a case for maintaining military pressure against 1.
the offshore islands. It states that Kinmen and Matsu are
"situated in China's inland sea" and that attacks against Kin-
men are part of a "civil war." The editorial continues Peiping's

—'F6P—S-EGR-IE-F

22 Sept 58' (A?E>'r'5\E/'eAd'ro?F§§E'§s'§55§6751/'§§'b'0'§§§?s'ss2 Page 3

 v
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aa

practice of distinguishing between the immediate "threat"

from the offshore islands and the long-range aim of "lib-
erating" Taiwan.

The Chinese Communists are avoiding substantive com-

ment on the talks at Warsaw ‘except to insist that a cease-fire
should not be the immediate aim of the negotiations. Question
ing US sincerity, a People's Daily editorial on 22- September
calls for withdrawal of US forces from the Taiwan Strait area
and the cessation of armed "pro
' ' '
n n this, all
other talks are pure nonsense."

22 Sept 58‘ Page 4

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EaSt,G§£_1I1a12Y May Ease Herérpéine Program

The East German Communist party's central committee
will hold a plenum in mid- October to formulate measures to
alterqui_e'tl. the hard, line adopted last July at the fifth party
congress, FY These meas-
ures reportedly will include eased restrictions on travel to
\

West Germany and a slowdown in the drive for full socializa-

tion.

‘Party First Secretary Ulbricht and

a few trusted. colheagues are now preparing the agenda for the
\

plenum and that they expect to ease restrictions without fan-

fare in order to minimize the contradictions with the fifth con-
gress program, Such a relaxation at a time when other satel-
lites are imposing harsher measures would reflect official
East German alarm over the growing discontent in East Ger-
many, which.._ has caused serious manpower and talent losses
through refugee flights to the West.

Already East Germany has granted sweeping concessions

to physicians in what is openly admitted by the party press to
be a move to stem the serious loss of doctors. Additional
concessions are not likely to appease the populace and may
inspire popular demands for even further liberalization. Fur- -

thermore an easing in travel restrictions to the West is likely

to increase the refugee flow and thus heighten the dilemma of
the Ulbricht regime. \

22 $9 p 58-
'5 |:|\|-rn,\|
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 7

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Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C02996632
id

I I. ASIA- AFRICA

Tension IIlCI'C_.':'=717’SlI1_gW in HI_Le2ba<n9_1_i_

The pro- Chamoun Christian Phalange party in Lebanon

has called. on its supporters to prepare for a general strike
on 22 September, the day before General Shihab's inauguration
as president, in protest against recent rebel "'provocations."
The Lebanese Army imposed a round-the-clock curfew in Bei-
rut on 21 September and has instituted other precautions in an
effort to forestall further and more serious violence prior to
Shihab's inauguration.- The Phalange, however, has called on
its supporters to ignore the curfew.

Tension in Beirut continues high, reflecting the wave of

MQslém- Christian kidnappings in the city on 19 and 20 Sep-
tember. The incidents began when members of the opposition
seized the editor of the pro- Cham.oun Christian Phalange party
newspaper, The Phalangists believe their editor may have been
murdered. yB0th sides retaliated,‘ in turn, by.'.seizing';hostages.
By noon of 20 September, 96 Moslems had been abducted, in- '

cluding the cousin of rebel leader Saib Salam. Armed Pha-

langists are said to have resisted a Lebanese Army attempt
to surround their headquarters, and Christians in areas ad-
joining the rebel-held Basta quarter are fearful of further rebel
kidnappings, Despite the release of many captives by both
sides, the new tensions have increased the prospect'of Mos-
lem-Christian conflict,

If the present situation, which Christians term "electric,"

continues, the success of the planned general arms collection
by Shihab would be diminished considerably. Shihab has sup-
plied arms to the recently legalized pro- Chamoun Popular
Social party (PPS), possibly to counterbalance armed rebel
groups and to ensure PPS support in the face of possible rebel
recalcitranceo

about 300
armed men from Syria have arrived to augment rebel Druze"
leader Jumblatt's forces in the mountains southeast of Beirut.
They brought arms, ammunition, and winter clothing for

_SE€R'E-T-

22 Sept 58*
Czgaavaa fa:sazsgaasaro1a¢»:'¢a5§§@632Pa@@ 6
 Approved for Re|e§'s'§/§c'>Ec'>76'¥/23 002996632

Jumblatt's men» Two Syrian officers are reported to have ac-

companied the party. Lebanese Army officers are very dis-
turbed by this move and feel it is aimed at the future Shihab
government, since the present government will leave office on
23 September. Other reports indicate that Syrian reinforce-
ments arrived recently in northern Lebanon, that 90 Syrian 1::
-

command.os returned to Beirut on 11 September, and that a

"committee for destructive activities and terrorism" composed
of UAR Ifficers "

L
" '

Basta.

Opposition leader Nasim Majdalani, a Druze, told the Amer-

ican ambassador in Cairo that, while the Egyptian attitude to-
ward Lebanon appeared favorable, Syria continues to be un-
friendly. He intimated that Saraj, UAR minister of interior
for Syria, was behind this animosity.

‘efforts of the Lebanese

Government to sell American wheat sent
\

to alleviate the gr in
shortage have been blocked bv rebel pressure

-5E6RE‘1"—

22 Sept 58 Ct/l'5IJ3v’;h rgF'§§|'e'a'§é;:§d§o7o17§§ 'c'5'§§‘9'ess21-)age 7

 Approved for Release? §oEcVoT/23 002996632

Developments in Jordan

King Husayn has indicated the desirability of certain per-

sonnel and policy changes within the Jordanian Government in
the near future to avert growing friction amen tha.;~eJ.a.ce, the gov-
ernment, and the army. The consider-
ing replacing his unpopular authoritarian prime minister, Samir
Rifai. Another candidate for dismissal .-is Rif'ai_'s pr0.teg-d,»
Army Deputy Chief of Staff Sadiq Shara, whose loyalty to the
-.

King remains in question. If Husayn is to succeed in develop-

ing a more popular and stable government, he will have to re-
move other unpopular ministers, including Interior Minister
Madadha, and seek some sort of accommodation with Jordan's
Arab neighbors, These reforms, however, would involve risk
to Jordan's pro-Western orientation and to the position of the
monarchy. The King's d.ecision to implement reforms and
changes in key personnel is rend.ered more critical by the im-
pending departure, possibly by the end of October, of British
troops, which have maintained him in power since mid-July.

The King's disenchantment with Rifai reflects in part the

influence of Court Minister Hazza Majali
Iwho has sought to
\ \

impress the King that Rifai's unpopularity threatens the mon-

archy, Rifai inturn has accused Majali of gross corruption
when he was an official of the Jordan Development Board, and S

has made common cause with Sadiq Shara. Recent testimony

from officers arrested in connection with the UAR-supported
conspiracy against the King in July has further implicated
Col, Salih Shara, brother of the deputy chief of staff. The
_

King is concerned that if the colonel were arrested, his broth-

er, and possibly Premier Rifai, would resign. Before bring-
ing on such a crisis, Husayn would need to line up a consider-
able number of replacement officers and government officials, a
most difficult task in view of the unpopularity of the Kingfs "

pro-Western orientation.
_

While UN Secretary General Hammarskjoldis report to

the General Assembly on the results of his Middle East

-SE€-R-E11;

22 Sept Page 8
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mission has not yet been released, the semiofficial Cairo

newspaper A1 Ahram has denied reports that Nasir agreed
to establishment of elements of a UN '"wat'chdog" mission
in Damascus to facilitate communication with the UN mis-
sion which is to be established in Jordan about 24 Septem.-
ber.

‘at least three high-rank-

ing Lordanian diplomatic officials abroad have recently re-
ceived. romises of financi 1 reward if they defect to the -

-5E€RET—

22 Sept 58‘ 9
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 and-nr\'\n-un-1
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III. THE WEST

De Gaulle Faces Showdown on Algerian Integration

When Premier De Gaulle visits Algeria on 2-3 October,
he may face a showdown with French Army leaders on his
reluctance to come out clearly for a policy of integrating A1-
geria with France. He had earlier seemed intent on conceal-
ing his personal views ‘on an Algerian solution, pending the
expected adoption of his new constitution in the 28 September
referendum.
he considers integration "unrealistic," however,
\ \

and on 20 September he was reported to have told a small

gathering in Rennes that independence for Algeria was a "fool-
ish solution," just as much as integration was.

Both the military and the settlers in Algeria have main-

tained they will interpret the expected favorable vote in A1-
geria as a demand for integration. \

Much of De Gaul1e's support in the Socialist and Radical

parties stems from the belief that he will publicly "break with
the rightists" in formulating an Algerian solution soon after
the referendum. Recent moves have increased the govern-
ment's authority over the armed forces, but De Gaulle may
have underestimated the full extent of the military's opposition
to any policy except integration. \ \

SECRET‘

22 $9 p t 53: FMTDAI
(Approved
m'rr:|||r'.~.|=mr|= P.llll|=TlI\l
for Release: 2020/01/23 C02996632
P ag e 10
 Appr0veg1,1’_9r_F§<3I<3e_1§<;_:_ g9g01g1_/gs 002996632
‘W ‘€
THE PRESIDENT
The Vice President
Executive Offices of the White House
Special Assistant for National Security Affairs
Scientific Adviser to the President
Director of the Budget
Office of Defense and Civilian Mobilization
Special Assistant for Security Operations Coordination
Board of Consultants on Foreign Intelligence Activities
Special Assistant for Foreign Economic Policy
Special Adviser to the President
The Treasury Department
The Secretary of the Treasury
The Department of State
The Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Political Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Administration
The Counselor
Director, International Cooperation Administration
The Director of Intelligence and Research
The Department of Defense
The Secretary of Defense
The Deputy Secretary of Defense
The Secretary of the Army
The Secretary of the Navy
The Secretary of the Air Force
The Chairman, The Joint Chiefs of Staff
Commandant, United States Marine Corps
The Director, The Joint Staff
Chief of Staff, United States Army
Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy
Chief of Staff, United States Air Force
Assistant to Secretary of Defense for Special Operations
Deputy Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff
Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army
Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy
Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force
Supreme Allied Commander, Europe
Commander in Chief, Pacific t

The Department of the Interior

The Secretary of the Interior
Federal Bureau of Investigation
The Director
Atomic Energy Commission
The Chairman
National Security Agency
The Director
National Indications Center
The Director
United States Information Agency
The Director ,

Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C02996632

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