Is part of every decision we make.

 We constantly face the

With uncertainty and ambiguity, and variability. In spite of the
We have access to information is not unprecedented, we can not
Accurately predict the future. Monte Carlo simulation allows you to
See all the possible outcomes of your decisions and evaluate
The impact of risk, allowing for better decision-making process within the framework of
Uncertainty.
What is Monte Carlo simulation?
Monte Carlo simulation is a computerized mathematical Technology that allows people to
calculate the risk Quantitative analysis and decision making. This technique is Used by
specialists in these various areas throughout the Wide Financial, project management,
energy, manufacturing, Engineering, research and development, insurance, oil and gas,
Transport and the environment.

Monte Carlo simulation provides the decision maker with

Range of possible outcomes and the possibilities and will
Talk about which option to work .. It shows the extreme
Broke the possibilities of the results going to Olmazm
Take the conservative side by side with all possible consequences for
East of the road - decisions.

Was the first to use the technology by scientists who are working on an atom
Bomb; named for Monte Carlo, Monaco Resort
Famous for its casinos. Since its introduction in World War
Have used the second, Monte Carlo simulations to model group
Variety of
Physical and conceptual systems

Other Part of each of our decisions. We constantly confronted with With uncertainty and

ambiguity, and variability. Despite of We have access to information is not unprecedented,
we can not Accurately predict the future. Monte Carlo simulation will can See all possible
outcomes of your decisions and assess The incidence of risk, allowing decision-making
process better under Uncertainty.
What is the Monte Carlo?
Monte Carlo is a mathematical computer model
A technology that allows people to calculate the riskThe quantitative analysis and decision
making. Thistechnique is Used by specialists in these areas through Wide Financial, project
management, energy, manufacturing, Engineering, research and development, insurance,
Oil and Gas Transport and the environment.

Monte Carlo simulation provides the decision maker

Range of possible outcomes and opportunities and
Discuss the option of working .. It shows the extremeBroke the potential outcomes will Olma
zm Take the conservative side by side with all
possible consequences for
East of the road - decisions.
Was the first to use the technology by
Scientists working on an atom
Bomb; name Monte Carlo, Monaco Resort
Famous for its casinos. Since its introduction in War
World
Chose the second, Monte Carlo
the model group
Variety
Physical systems and conceptual

Good

Monte Carlo analysis of risk through

Construction
Model results can replace a set of
values
aprobability distribution of any factor that has inherent
Uncertainty. then calculates the results are becoming
Additionally, all
Time using a different set of random values
of
probability functions. It depends on the number of
Uncertainties and ranges of some of them, and Monte Carlo
May cause the simulation of thousands or tens of
thousands of
The new calculations before it is complete. Simulation
Monte Carlo
Produces a distribution of values of the potential outcome.
Using probability distributions, it can be
variables
Various possibilities for the different results that
occur.
Probability distributions is a more realistic
Describe the uncertainty of variable risk analysis.
joint probability distributions as follows:
Normal - "bell curve" or simply means that
the user knows or
The expected value and standard deviation to describe
The disagreement on the environment. The values in the east near the
center
More likely to occur. It is symmetrical, and describes
many
Natural phenomena such as the highlands. Examples
Variables described by a normal distribution, including
inflation
Prices and energy prices.
And tend to positive values, and not as the
symmetrical - lognormal
Normal distribution. It is used to represent
values
Do not go below zero, but positive potential
is unlimited.
Examples of variables described by distributions log-
normal
Include the value of real property, the prices of
stocks, and oil
Reserves.
Uniforms - all values have an equal chance to
produce, and
User known simply as the minimum and maximum.
Examples
Variables that can be distributed evenly
include
Manufacturing costs in the future or the product of
Sales of new
Product.
Triple - The user specifies the minimum, most likely,
and
Maximum values. About the highest values
likely more vulnerable
Occur. Variables that can be described by
triangular
And includes the distribution of past sales history
per unit time and
Inventory levels.
Bert, the user specifies the minimum, most likely, and
maximum
Values, as the distribution of the trio. About
values
Probably more likely to occur. However,
values
Between the two extremes, and probably more likely
occur
Triangular, that is, the maximum is not as
Said. Example of the use and distribution of Bert
To describe the duration of the task in Project Management
Model.
Also - the user selects certain values
can occur
The outlook for each. For example, results
can be
Follows: 20% chance of a positive decision, 30% change
negative rule, 40% chance of settlements, and
10% chance of
Mistrial.
Through Monte Carlo simulations, and taking
random samples in the values
The probability distributions of the input. Each set
samples
Called iteration, and the consequences of this
The sample is recorded. Monte Carlo is that
Hundreds of
Or thousands of times, the result is that there is a
possibility
Distribution of possible outcomes. In this way, Monte
Carlo
Simulation provides a more comprehensive view of what can
Happen. No, do not tell you what can happen, but
how
It is likely to occur.
Monte Carlo simulation provides a number
advantages over
Deterministic or "point estimate" analysis:
• The results of probability. The results showed no
only this
Possible, but what is the probability of each outcome.
• Graphical results. Due to data and Monte Carlo
Simulation generates, it is easy to create graphs
different
Results and the probability of occurrence. This is important
For the results to other stakeholders.
• sensitivity analysis. With some cases,
deterministic analysis, it is unclear who
The variables that most affect performance. In Monte
Carlo
Simulation, it is easy to see which inputs are most
great
Impact on the bottom line.
• Scenario Analysis: In deterministic models, it is
very
Difficult to model different combinations of values
different inputs to see the effects of different really
Scenarios. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we
can be seen, analysts
Exactly what the input values and when
some
Impact on results. This is very valuable in
pursuit of more
Analysis.
• Link inputs. In Monte Carlo, it is
Possible to model the relationships between inputs
Variables. It is important to ensure the accuracy of the
representation of the way in
Indeed, when the rise of certain factors, while
others go up or down
Accordingly.
The continuation of Monte Carlo simulations is the use of Latin
Hypercube sampling, which samples more accurate
that
All distribution functions