Monte Carlo disruption analysis is a technique used in project management and risk analysis to

assess the potential impact of uncertainties and risks on a project's schedule and cost. It derives
its name from the Monte Carlo simulation method, which is a statistical technique used to model
the probability of different outcomes in a situation with uncertainty.
Here's how Monte Carlo disruption analysis works and why it is used:
Modeling Uncertainties: In any project, there are various uncertainties and risks that can affect
the project's progress, such as delays in tasks, changes in resource availability, unexpected
events, and more. Monte Carlo disruption analysis starts by identifying these uncertainties and
modeling them as probability distributions. For example, the duration of a task might be modeled
as a range with a minimum and maximum duration.
Simulating Project Outcomes: Using the modeled uncertainty distributions, Monte Carlo
simulation runs thousands or even millions of iterations to simulate the project's progress. In
each iteration, random values are sampled from the probability distributions to estimate the
impact of uncertainties on the project's schedule and cost. These simulations generate a range of
possible project outcomes.
Analysis of Results: Once the Monte Carlo simulations are completed, the results are analyzed to
provide insights into the project's risk profile. This includes assessing the likelihood of meeting
the project's deadlines and budget under different scenarios. Key performance metrics such as the
probability of on-time completion and the range of potential costs can be derived from the
simulations.
Risk Mitigation: The insights gained from Monte Carlo disruption analysis help project
managers and stakeholders make informed decisions about risk mitigation strategies. For
instance, if the analysis shows a high risk of schedule delays, project managers can allocate
additional resources, adjust task priorities, or develop contingency plans to reduce the likelihood
of disruption.
Improved Decision-Making: Monte Carlo disruption analysis provides a more realistic and
probabilistic view of project outcomes compared to deterministic scheduling methods. This
enables project teams to make more informed decisions, allocate resources more effectively, and
communicate project risks and uncertainties to stakeholders.
In current project, we have developed a schedule plan. In that schedule we have taken three
scenarios as: best, expected and worse case scenarios. once monte Carlo disruption is ran in MS
Project, we have extracted its report in excel format which depicts the analysis. it shows the
original model and the probability analysis within expected dates. Further, completition time
with their expected probabilities are shared.