Natural Resources Research (Ó 2018)

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11053-018-9396-1

Original Paper

Evaluation of Impact of Potential Extreme Rainfall Events

on Mining in Peru

Francisco R. Gonzalez ,1,2,5 Simit Raval,1 Ros Taplin,3,4 Wendy Timms,1

and Michael Hitch1

Received 11 April 2018; accepted 26 July 2018

The impact that climate change may play in the future sustainability of mining projects has
become increasingly important for the mining industry and its stakeholders. The most sig-
nificant areas of concern are mine infrastructure, supply chains, health and safety conditions,
environmental management, community relations and exploration. This is particularly rel-
evant to mining in a country as climatically vulnerable as Peru. This study focuses on the
identification of mining regions and main commodities in Peru that are potentially vulner-
able to future extreme rainfall events associated with climate change. From a mine design
and planning perspective, this study is a first step to illustrate the importance of considering
the impacts of different climatic scenarios on mining in Peru. Based on HadGEM2-ES global
climate model projections, mining regions across Peru were clustered into ‘‘super-regions’’
with differing potentials of extreme rainfall events during the next three decades. Five
indices for precipitation extremes were used, and their variations between 1971–2000 and
2015–2034 were computed. Current and future metallic mining projects expected to take
place across Peru in the next 30 years were retrieved from a mining database and subse-
quently exported into a geographical information systems software to represent their loca-
tion and interpolate the variation for each precipitation extreme index. The results of this
study point out at a decreasing trend in rainfall extremes intensity and frequency in regions
of southern Peru. For copper projects located in these regions, a decrease in rainfall events
could also imply an eventual decrease in total precipitation and consequently a deficit in
water availability during the next three decades. Mining regions in central Peru, with sig-
nificant number of zinc projects, are likely to experience a marked increase in overall annual
precipitation, average daily precipitation intensity, consecutive days of precipitation and
number of heavy precipitation days. At a lesser extent than in central Peru, gold projects in
northern Peru are also likely to experience an overall increase in precipitation extremes. The
approach used for this research could be extended to other mining regions around the world
with extreme weather events.
KEY WORDS: Extreme rainfall events, Mining, Climatic risk, Adaptation, Peru.

1
Australian Centre for Sustainable Mining Practices, School of
Mining Engineering, UNSW, Sydney 2052, Australia.
INTRODUCTION
2
Department of Mining Engineering, University of Chile, Santi-
ago, Chile. Climate change poses a significant risk to min-
3
Art & Design, UNSW, Sydney 2052, Australia. ing companies in productivity, safety and achieving
4
Centre for Energy Policy, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, sustainability goals over time (ICMM 2013). The
Scotland, UK.
5
To whom correspondence should be addressed; e-mail:
need for the mining industry to find appropriate
francgon@uchile.cl adaptation strategies for a changing climate and

Ó 2018 International Association for Mathematical Geosciences


associated extreme weather events has been clearly
identified, with the most significant areas of concern
being mine infrastructure, supply chains, health and
safety conditions, environmental management,
community relations and exploration (Nelson and
Schuchard 2011).
Actual impacts of climate change on the mining
sector have been documented in the last decade. The
early work carried out by Pearce et al. (2009) is
notorious in outlining how the mining industry in
Canada was exposed and sensitive to the impact of a
changing climate. Following along that seminal
work, Ford et al. (2010, 2011) continued exploring
perceptions of climate change impacts and extreme
weather events of concern among mining executives
and operators, respectively. Other countries worth
noting where relevant research on the impact of
extreme weather events on mining emerged early in
the decade are Australia (Hodgkinson et al. 2010;
Loechel 2012) and Greece (Damigos 2012).
The potential impact of extreme weather events
is perceived as having greater incidence in the future
for mining operations (Albanese and Mcgagh 2011).
However, to date, common practices and proposed
guidelines for mine feasibility studies generally have
not thoroughly assessed climate change projections
or vulnerability to extreme weather events as part of
project evaluations (Bullock 2011a). There is also no
clear agreement across the industry about how fea-
sibility studies should consider extreme weather
events (Bullock 2011b). Nevertheless, with open-pit
mine design guidelines, a detailed understanding of
local climate and extremes is recommended from
the perspective of formulating a water management
plan (Wetherelt and Wielen 2011). Mine planning
guidelines do not propose detailed assessments of
potential effects of future climate projections or
extreme weather events on planned mine production
(Bullock 2011c; Whittle 2011). In contrast to mine
design or mine planning, the need for a climate
change risk analysis in mine closure has been iden-
tified as a general issue to be assessed, specifically
from the perspective of water balance and water
management (Bingham 2011).
To date, a few initiatives have emerged that
propose frameworks or guidelines that consider cli-
mate change as an additional source of risk within a
mine operation (ICMM 2013; Locke et al. 2011;
Mason et al. 2013; Peñailillo et al. 2013). These ap-
proaches suggest analyzing climate change potential
impacts by means of standardized risk assessment
methodologies, which have usually been adopted by
Gonzalez, Raval, Taplin, Timms, and Hitch
mining companies. However, their implementation
and applicability to obtain practical inputs for mine
design and mine planning are yet to be developed.
Peru is an important producer of several com-
modities, significant reserves of which are contained
within its territory (KPMG 2016). The mining
industry represents an important economic activity
for Peru, in terms of GDP (INEI 2014) and as a
source of employment (IPE 2012; MINEM 2014). At
the same time, Peru is a country rich in biodiversity
and has a range of climatic zones (UNFCCC 2010).
It is prone to heavy precipitation and floods (IN-
DECI 2012) and, with respect to climate change, has
been identified as a country that is becoming more
vulnerable to floods in the near future, namely in the
period to 2030 (DARA 2012). All the above factors
advocate the need, for the mining industry in Peru,
to assess future climate projections and potential
impacts of extreme rainfall events.
Rainfall has been selected as the weather event
of interest in this study for a number of reasons. As
stated in the previous paragraph, Peru is expected in
the coming decade to experience variation in heavy
precipitation and droughts across the country
(DARA 2012). In addition, rainfall might bring
disturbance to the infrastructure and operational
continuity of mining projects. On one hand, varia-
tion in rainfall directly affects slope stability and has
already been highlighted in the literature pertaining
to impacts of climate change on mining (ICMM
2013; Mason et al. 2013; Nelson and Schuchard 2011;
Pearce et al. 2011). On the other hand, rainfall de-
crease could directly impact water availability, thus
limiting the capacity of processing plants to perform
mineral concentration at their designed capacity. In
particular, southern Peru and northern Chile have
been identified as water-scarce mining-intensive
zones where adaptation options such as desalination
could prove an effective solution (Dixon 2013;
Ecosecurities and CCG-UC 2010).
In this study, an innovative approach that
explicitly considers climate projections is proposed
to identify vulnerability of mining regions due to
exposure to extreme rainfall events or rainfall pat-
terns. A distinction of this approach is the incorpo-
ration of precipitation indices to assess extreme
rainfall event variation, by using recent climate
projections from publicly available databases. The
nature of this approach is neither limited by climate
types nor number of commodities or regions. Test-
ing this approach with Peru as country case study
served to prove its potential in two ways. Firstly, it
Evaluation of Impact of Potential Extreme Rainfall
was possible to consider a number of different
commodity types of strategic value. Secondly, a
range of climatic zones was covered by using Peru as
an example. These allowed the identification and
grouping of mining regions with similar variation
trends in precipitation indices, whether the change
was positive or negative in value.
The structure of this article includes an over-
view of Peru and its mining context, followed by
background information on PeruÕs climate and fu-
ture climate projections. Subsequently, the methods
and data considered for the Peru case study are
presented. Results are provided in the form of
mining regions identified as potentially vulnerable to
extreme rainfall events in the future decades. Fi-
nally, the extent of these results and a series of
conclusions and recommendations for further re-
search are discussed.
MINING IN PERU
The mining industry represents a significant
economic activity for Peru. The sector accounts for
24% of all foreign direct investment (KPMG 2016)
and 55% of all shipments overseas, and it con-
tributes 11.7% to PeruÕs nominal GDP (INEI 2014).
The International Council on Mining and Me-
tals (ICMM) is a mining organization representing
the largest mining companies and associations
globally. Out of its 23 member mining companies
(ICMM 2015), 14 have projects located in Peru
(KPMG 2016; MINEM 2015). ICMM ranks Peru
among the top 10 mining countries in terms of raw
mineral and metal production value (ICMM 2014).
Additionally, roughly 14% of all goods produced by
the manufacturing sector in Peru are used by the
mining industry, while at the same time contributing
nine new indirect jobs for each mining project (IPE
2012).
In terms of key commodities and production,
Peru is the worldÕs third largest producer of zinc, tin,
copper and silver, and the sixth largest producer of
gold (MINEM 2013). With respect to total mining
reserves (proven and probable), Peru takes third
place in the worldÕs zinc reserves accounting for
7.6%; second place in the worldÕs reserves account-
ing for 13%; and first overall in the worldÕs silver
reserves accounting for 22% (Huamanı́ 2014).
According to a recent mining statistical bulletin re-
leased by the Ministry of Energy and Mines of Peru
(MINEM), while 14.8% of PeruÕs territory is under
mining concessions, only 0.9 and 0.3% are destined
for exploitation and exploration, respectively.
The relevance of the mining industry to the
economic growth of Peru was emphasized in its
second national communication to the United Na-
tions Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC). However, from the perspective of cli-
mate change, only the impact of this industry on
energy consumption, greenhouse gas (GHG) emis-
sions and related mitigation alternatives was dis-
cussed within the report (UNFCCC 2010). Potential
climate change impacts on this industry, or possible
adaptation measures were missed in the report.
CLIMATE PROJECTIONS FOR THE CASE
STUDY
PeruÕs climate is conditioned by the presence of
the Andes Mountains across the country from north
to south. The country is divided into three main
geomorphologic zones. In the west, there is an arid
coastal region, in the middle a high plateau zone
known as the Tropical Andes, and to the east the
Amazonian tropical jungle (UNFCCC 2010). This is
important background information since most min-
ing activities considered in this study take place in
coastal or high-altitude areas in the Andes Moun-
tains.
One of the challenges of simulating the climate
in Peru has to do with the presence of the Andes
Mountains. Precipitation estimation can be over-
estimated when compared to observations as shown
by Urrutia and Vuille (2009) and Chou et al.
(2012). In recent years, several studies have been
carried out to estimate the future climate across the
Andes Mountains. Rainfall over the Andes Moun-
tains has been overestimated in dynamical down-
scaling projects when compared to re-analyses or
station gridded datasets (Carril et al. 2012; Chou
et al. 2012; Solman et al. 2013; Urrutia and Vuille
2009). This is due to its complex orography, few
historical observations and a sparse weather station
network.
The regional climate model (RCM) Eta-
CPTEC and four members of the HadCM3 global
climate model (GCM) were used by Marengo et al.
(2012) to simulate the climate over the South
American continent up to 2100. Projections from
regional modeling for the period 2011–2040 indicate
rainfall increases in northern Peru and particularly
along the Peruvian coast from 10 to 50% and a dry

(or decreasing) trend in the south from 10 to
30% (Marengo et al. 2012).
In a different study for the period 2071–2100, a
general increase in mean annual precipitation with
altitude level might be expected in the Andes
Mountains (Urrutia and Vuille 2009). Up to eleva-
tions of 2000 m, the range of expected variation is
from 100 to 300 mm of precipitation. Above 2000 m
of altitude, the projected precipitation differences
are small and statistically insignificant (Urrutia and
Vuille 2009).
Torres and Marengo (2014) identified compa-
rable spatial distribution changes in precipitation
over South America in a study of CMIP3 and
CMIP51 ensembles, and they found that the magni-
tude of precipitation change decreases in CMIP5
compared to CMIP3 across the continent. Specifi-
cally, for Peru, the change in mean precipitation
determined in that study for the CMIP3 and CMIP5
datasets during austral summer is within 5–10% for
most of the country. During austral winter, the dif-
ferences between CMIP3 and CMIP5 become more
notorious. Mean precipitation change for the CMIP3
dataset was in the range of 10–20% in central and
northern Peru and 5 to 0% variation in PeruÕs
south. In contrast, the CMIP5 dataset showed values
of 0–5% in central and northern Peru and 15 to
0% in the south (Torres and Marengo 2014).
Another comparative study of CMIP models
was undertaken by Seiler et al. (2013), with ensem-
bles of 12 CMIP3 GCMs and 12 CMIP5 GCMs. For
Peru, the southernmost part of the country (south of
15°S) is the only area where three CMIP3 models
agree on significant (t test, 95% probability) annual
precipitation decrease for the period 2070–2099
compared to 1961–1990. In the case of CMIP5
models, the northwest of Peru is the only area where
two CMIP5 models show agreement on precipitation
decrease. Agreement in annual precipitation in-
1
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is a global
scientific collaboration aimed at improving the understanding of
past, present and future climate changes. From its inception in
1995, it has set standardized experimental protocols for studying
the output of coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation
models (WCRP 2018). Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5)
of this project provided the more recent datasets of climate
modeling outputs available, with CMIP5 involving a more
advanced modeling approach and more models (Eyring et al.
2016). CMIP3 and CMIP5 projections are not directly comparable
as the carbon emission scenarios defined in both phases were
different. With respect to the next phase, CMIP6, simulation is
currently underway and will extend until 2020 (Eyring et al. 2018).
Gonzalez, Raval, Taplin, Timms, and Hitch
crease for most central and northern Peru is above
eight CMIP3 and CMIP5 models (Seiler et al. 2013).
Projected precipitation changes for different
regions of the world were analyzed by Polade et al.
(2014) by using an ensemble of 28 CMIP5 GCMs.
The projected average change in daily precipitation
intensity during wet days over the period 2060–2089
was compared relative to a historical baseline period
from 1960 to 1989. Results of this study indicate an
estimated variation for Peru in the range of 5–10%
in the west of the country and 0–5% elsewhere
(Polade et al. 2014).
Climate projections to 2030 by the National
Service for Meteorology and Hydrology of Peru
(SENAMHI 2009) indicate that no significant
changes in the spatial distribution of rainfall will
occur. In terms of potential climate change impacts
and environmental disasters, Peru has been evalu-
ated as a country with a high level (5–15% increase)
of vulnerability to floods, and even higher (15–25%)
for droughts, by 2030 (DARA 2012).
METHODS
The methods involved in this research are por-
trayed in Figure 1. Two main inputs were used as a
starting point to establish an overview of Peru as a
suitable case study country: its mining industry and
climate antecedents. The outputs of this research are
also highlighted in Figure 1, namely the identifica-
tion of mining regions and commodity types that are
potentially more vulnerable to extreme rainfall
events in Peru. A description of each step is pro-
vided in the following paragraphs.
Overview of The Case Study
The main aspects of the mining industry and
climate are identified for Peru. Particular attention is
given to future climate projections and the role that
the mining industry plays in its economy.
Climate Database Description
A depiction of the features of the climate da-
tabase and projections of extreme events selected to
undertake this study is presented. To analyze the
variation in precipitation extreme indices for mining
Evaluation of Impact of Potential Extreme Rainfall
Figure 1. Flowchart for the assessment of potential extreme rainfall variation on the mining industry of Peru.
regions in Peru, the approach for selecting outputs
from climate projections is discussed in this paper.
Selection of Precipitation Indices
Five relevant precipitation indices, from the
core group defined by the Expert Team on Climate
Change Detection and Indices (Zhang et al. 2011),
were selected to assess the variation in frequency
and intensity of extreme rainfall events on the case
study country. The selected indices were used to
assess the exposure of mining regions in Peru to
extreme rainfall events.
Selection of Mining Projects
In this step, the criteria to select mining projects
for this vulnerability assessment were defined and
then applied to retrieve each projectÕs information
from a mining database. For Peru, it was decided to
consider only current and ongoing open cut opera-
tions for a 30-year period, from 2015 up to 2034. The
SNL Metals & Mining database (SNL Financial
2014) was accessed for the purpose of selecting en-
tries from all ongoing and future open-pit projects in
Peru for the next three decades. This database pro-
vided relevant information about each projectÕs
status, location coordinates, commodities and ore
reserves (among many other features).
Assessment of Climate Projections on Mining
Projects
A GIS-based comparison of climate model
projections and mining database information for
Peru was performed to draw conclusions about
potential vulnerability to extreme rainfall events at a
regional level. In order to establish a significant
change in the occurrence of extreme rainfall events,
a 30-year median ensemble was computed for each
precipitation index between 15 sets of future climate
projections against historical climate.
Identification of Vulnerable Regions
and Commodities
Results from the previous steps for each mining
project location were aggregated into regions and
commodity types. The exercise allowed the identi-
fication of four super-regions or areas in Peru with
similar pattern in the projected variation of extreme
rainfall events.
Description of the ETCCDI Climate Database
The Expert Team on Climate Change Detec-
tion and Indices (ETCCDI) is an international col-
laboration to address needs for research information
on climate variability and change from climate

models and observed data (Zhang et al. 2011). Cli-
mate extreme indices as defined by ETCCDI have
been computed for several CMIP3 and CMPI5
GCMs (CCCma 2012). The validation of the ex-
treme indices for present climate (Sillmann et al.
2013a) and analysis of projected future changes
(Sillmann et al. 2013b) has been performed for
CMIP5 models.
With respect to the outputs available and
timescale, the ETCCDI Extreme Indices Archive is
a comprehensive and practical climate database, as it
provides extreme precipitation indices on a yearly
basis for the remainder of the twenty-first century.
The following ETCCDI extreme indices for precip-
itation (Zhang et al. 2011) have been selected for the
purpose of this study:
 Annual total precipitation in wet days
(prcptot): annual sum of precipitation during
wet days (i.e., when daily precipitation is
greater than or equal to 1 mm; in units of
mm).
 Simple precipitation intensity index (sdii):
annual total precipitation in wet days divided
by the number of wet days, in units of mm/d.
 Max 5-day precipitation amount (rx5day):
monthly maximum consecutive 5-day precip-
itation, in units of mm.
 Number of heavy precipitation days
(r10mm): annual count of days when precip-
itation is more than 10 mm.
 Very wet days (r95p): annual total precipita-
tion from days above the 95th percentile of a
distribution for 1961–1990 as baseline period,
in units of mm.
This subset of ETCCDI precipitation indices
has been chosen to cover three possible categories
of indices (Sillmann et al. 2013a). These are abso-
lute values (prcptot, sdii, rx5day), thresholds
(r10mm) and percentile-based exceedance rates
(r95p). Those five indices proposed here aim at
quantifying the change in the frequency and
intensity of extreme rainfall events for mining re-
gions in Peru.
At the time of this study, the CORDEX project
(CORDEX 2014), a global initiative for regional
downscaling, did not count with simulations for
South America. This collaborative initiative pro-
vides with downscaled climate projections at a res-
olution of 0.44° (or 50 km).
Gonzalez, Raval, Taplin, Timms, and Hitch
Selection of Climate Database Projections
The HadGEM2-ES model (CMIP5 version) of
the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Re-
search, or commonly known as Met Office, has been
selected for this study (Jones et al. 2011). Precipi-
tation indices of available realizations of this model
were retrieved from the ETCCDI Extreme Indices
Archive (CCCma 2012) to use climate projections in
this vulnerability assessment exercise.
An earlier version of this model
(HadCM3—CMIP3) had already shown good rep-
resentation of the El Niño phenomena at a global
scale in terms of realistic sea surface temperature
variability (Coelho and Goddard 2009). The evalu-
ation of the HadGEM2-ES model with regard to
present climate (1981–2000) has also shown good
representation for climate extremes globally com-
pared to four different re-analyses. The estimated
root-mean-square value for all five ETCCDI pre-
cipitation considered in this study (prcptot, sdii,
rx5day, r10mm, r95p) was in the range of 0.3 to
0.1 (Sillmann et al. 2013a).
Chou et al. (2014) reproduced a 30-year climate
trend for the period 1961–1990 in South America, by
nesting three CMIP5 GCMs (HadGEM2-ES, BESM
and MIROC5) in the Eta RCM. For the western side
of the Andes Mountains in Peru, the estimation in
annual total precipitation (prcptot) mean variation
was in the range of 50–100 mm. For the 95th per-
centile of daily precipitation (r95p), the estimated
change was of 25–50 mm (Chou et al. 2014). It is
noteworthy that of the three GCMs considered in
Chou et al. (2014), only HadGEM2-ES shows a clear
increase in precipitation extremes across Peru. In
contrast, the other two CMIP5 models (BESM,
MIROC5) exhibit negative to zero trends in the
estimation of precipitation extremes in western
Peru.
Other models have had lower performance
when simulating precipitation across the Andes
Mountains. An ensemble of three RCMs
(PROMES, RCA3 and REMO) with LMDZ4 as
driver global model was evaluated by Carril et al.
(2012). The LMDZ4 model is the atmospheric
component of IPSL-CM4, another CMIP3 GCM
(Hourdin et al. 2006). The evaluation of simulated
precipitation over the period 1991–2000 also showed
overestimation in orographic precipitation along the
Andes Mountains, above 40% for Peru in the dry
and wet seasons (Carril et al. 2012).
Evaluation of Impact of Potential Extreme Rainfall
In addition, Yin et al. (2013) identified that
HadGEM2-ES had the best performance (in terms
of lowest root-mean-square error) in capturing pre-
cipitation spatial and seasonal distributions among
eleven CMIP5 models in tropical South America. A
comparative analysis of precipitation representation
of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in South America
found that the HadGEM2-ES model also performed
above its counterparts in the region south of the
equator line (Gulizia and Camilloni 2015). Linear
spatial correlation coefficients of rainfall computed
for summer, winter and the annual mean were
higher for HadGEM2-ES than for any other CMIP5
model or even GCMs ensembles of 8 and 19 CMIP5
models (Gulizia and Camilloni 2015).
Simulation of precipitation extremes indices has
improved in CMIP5 models from the previous
phase. In particular, CMIP5 GCMs simulate more
intense precipitation and fewer consecutive wet days
(daily precipitation greater than 1 mm) compared to
CMIP3 GCMs (Sillmann et al. 2013a).
Fifteen realizations of the HadGEM2-ES cli-
mate model were selected considering existing rep-
resentative concentration pathways (RCPs). A RCP
is a measure of radiative forcing, or energy change in
the atmosphere due to greenhouse gasses emissions.
Each RCP (2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) represents a pre-
scribed CO2 concentration by the year 2100 (421,
538, 670 and 936 ppm, respectively). This is the most
recent approach used by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to determine
GHG trajectories by the year 2100 and ultimately
climate change projections (IPCC 2013). As there is
no consensus on the likelihood of each RCP (Vu-
uren et al. 2011), all four scenarios for the remainder
of the twenty-first century were considered in this
research.
For each realization, the variation in each pre-
cipitation index was computed as the difference
between the median of future climate projections
(2015–2044) and historical data (1971–2000), ex-
pressed in percentage. The historical period con-
sidered here serves as a baseline for natural climate
variability, whereas the future climate projections
account for a reasonable long-term mining scenario.
Even though the period from 2015 to 2044 does not
represent an indication of long-term climatic vari-
ability, the analyzed climate projections have been
constrained for the purpose of this study to those
years as a way to include mining projects that will
likely take place in Peru in the near future.
RESULTS
The mining database information (SNL Finan-
cial 2014) was combined with the HadGEM2-ES
climate projections to assess the variation in pre-
cipitation indices at the regional level (Fig. 2). The
estimated variation of precipitation indices across
Peru for one HadGEM2-ES realization with the
carbon emission scenario RCP4.5 is presented in
Figure 2. The projected variation in ETCCDI pre-
cipitation indices r10mm, r95p and rx5day is overlaid
for 39 mining projects according to their location
and commodity type.
The potential increase in the occurrence of ex-
treme rainfall events is indicated by dark green areas
in Figure 2. The number of heavy precipitation days,
or r10mm, (Fig. 2a) shows a slight increase in central
and northern Peru. The variation in very wet days,
or r95p, (Fig. 2b) is of more than 30% in the mining
regions of Junin, Pasco and Ancash, which contain
considerable silver and zinc reserves. Less marked
increases are observed in Cajamarca and La Liber-
tad, which if combined represent more than 80% of
PeruÕs gold reserves. The maximum 5-day rainfall
variation, rx5day, (Fig. 2c) exhibits a widespread
increase of 8–12% over most mining regions in the
center and north of Peru.
On the other hand, the potential decrease in
extreme rainfall events occurrence is indicated by
brown areas in Figure 2. This is particularly evident
in the south of Peru, specifically the mining regions
of Tacna, Arequipa and Moquegua, where most of
the copper reserves of Peru are contained. The
example in Figure 2a shows decreases of 30–40% in
the number of heavy precipitation days (r10mm) for
Tacna and Arequipa at some extent. The variation
in very wet days (r95p) is in the range of 30 to
50% for most Tacna, Arequipa and Moquegua, as
seen in Figure 2b. The maximum 5-day rainfall
variation is less pronounced, but still considerable,
with decreases of 10–20% in the aforementioned
regions (rx5day, Figure 2c).
To complement the analysis of the results of
this exercise, Table 1 provides a summary of the
proportion of proved ore reserves by region of all
the mining projects considered in Figure 2. The
information has been extracted from the SNL Min-
ing & Metals database (SNL Financial 2014) and
includes gold, silver, copper, tin, zinc and iron ore.
Out of 24 regions in Peru, 14 regions show significant
mining activity for the next three decades.
 Gonzalez, Raval, Taplin, Timms, and Hitch

Figure 2. Variation of ETCCDI precipitation indices over Peru for the period 2015–2044 compared to 1971–2000: (a) r10mm, (b) r95p
and (c) rx5day. The variations based on HadGEM2-ES_rcp45_r4i1p1 projections in heavy precipitation days (r10mm), very wet days
(r95p) and max 5-day precipitation amount (rx5day) are indicated as percentages.

Table 1. Proportion of proved ore reserves by mining region and commodity type in Peru. Current and future projects over the period
2015-2034 are considered (SNL Financial 2014)

Region Copper (%) Gold (%) Iron Ore (%) Silver (%) Tin (%) Zinc (%)

Ancash 5.4 – – 5.2 – 22.4

Arequipa 32.8 – – – – –
Ayacucho – 0.7 – 1.8 – –
Cajamarca 3.5 53.9 – – – –
Cusco 6.4 – – – – 8.4
Huancavelica – – – 2.0 – –
Ica 1.1 – 100.0 – – –
Junı́n 9.9 – – 2.3 – 0.7
La Libertad – 40.3 – – – –
Moquegua 6.0 – – – – –
Pasco 0.1 0.1 – – – 68.4
Piura 3.2 5.0 – – – –
Puno – – – 88.7 100.0 –
Tacna 31.5 – – – – –

The variation in each precipitation index for all
mining projects was estimated using bilinear inter-
polation of adjacent grid cells in ArcMap10.2. The
interpolated values of all HadGEM2-ES realizations
were then used to display boxplots of the variation
in each precipitation index aggregated by region and
commodity type (Fig. 3). Lower and upper hinges of
the box represent the 25th percentile (Q1) and 75th
percentile (Q3) of the data. The middle line repre-
sents the 50th percentile or median. Outliers are
displayed as filled circles and are plotted beyond 1.5
times the interquartile range (Q3-Q1). Two addi-
tional indices have been included for this analysis:
annual total precipitation in wet days (prcptot) and
Evaluation of Impact of Potential Extreme Rainfall

Figure 3. Aggregated variation of ETCCDI precipitation indices over mining regions in Peru for the period 2015–2044 compared to
1971–2000: (a) Variation in precipitation indices for mining projects grouped by mining region. The variation is expressed in vertical
boxplots. Mining regions ordered from south to north and west to east where applicable. Outliers are represented beyond 1.5 times the
interquartile range as filled circles. (b) Number of mining projects per region by commodity type.

simple precipitation intensity index (sdii). They
serve the purpose to complement the analysis of the
data shown in Figure 2, as prcptot and sdii are pre-
cipitation indices of the type absolute values, which
provide a general overview of annual and daily
average precipitation trends, respectively.
The order in which mining regions are pre-
sented in Figure 3 intends to portray their relative
geographical location in Peru from south to north
and from west of east where possible. The number of
projects by commodity type is also presented in
Figure 3. A clear contrast is observed in Figure 3
with respect to the projected variation of precipita-
tion indices in the south and north of the country.
The southernmost regions, Tacna, Arequipa and
Moquegua, show decreases in the majority of pre-
cipitation indices. The northernmost regions, La
Libertad, Cajamarca and Piura, present the opposite
scenario, with the increase in the median of all five
precipitation indices. For the regions in between,
two major subgroups are identified. In the south
center of the country, little to no variation is mostly
observed for Puno, Cusco and Ayacucho, with Ica
being the exception. The second subgroup, in the
center of Peru, displays some of the highest in-
creases in precipitation indices, namely in Junin,
Pasco and Ancash (refer to Figure 2 for the location
of each region).
In terms of variation of individual indices,
r95p is by far the one that presents the highest
increase compared to other indices and to the
historical baseline (Fig. 3). In all regions, the
highest maximum value observed in any boxplot
corresponds to r95p. The highest outliers corre-
spond to r95p, with values as high as 120% in Ica
and 90% in Pasco. Particularly in the central re-
gions of Peru, from Ica to Ancash (following the
order presented in Figure 3), while prcptot, sdii,
rx5day and r10mm show comparable boxplot dis-
tributions, r95p indicates an increase in two to four
times higher than the other indices in terms of
median value and interquartile range. In 12 of the
14 mining regions, the r95p index has the highest
increase in median value and the highest
interquartile range. Second to r95p is r10mm, in
both median value increase and interquartile
range. The other three indices, prcptot, sdii and
rx5day, show less pronounced changes.
For the largest decreases, r10mm presents the
lowest minimum values observed in any boxplots for
seven mining regions. The index with the lowest
interquartile range variation is sdii, with nine mining

regions out of 14. When considering absolute values
only, sdii also presents the lowest median variation
in nine regions. It is noteworthy that only in six re-
gions sdii simultaneously presents the lowest
interquartile range and lowest median variation, and
they spread across the country from south to north
(Moquegua, Ayacucho, Junin, Ancash, La Libertad
and Cajamarca).
Mining projects involving zinc, silver and gold
will potentially be exposed to the largest variation in
precipitation indices. The highest variation in pre-
cipitation indices is observed for the case of zinc. As
it would be expected, the regions where mining of
zinc will take place, Ancash and Pasco, also present
considerably high variation in precipitation indices
(Fig. 3). The increase in precipitation indices for
zinc is particularly evident for prpctot, rx5day and
r95p, with median variation above 10%. Zinc is
mainly concentrated in central Peru, with six pro-
jects. It is not a coincidence that the commodity type
with the largest increase in the variation of precipi-
tation indices is also the one located mostly in three
regions with the largest individual increases in r95p
(see Figure 3 for Junin, Pasco and Ancash).
Eight out of 10 gold projects take place in
northern Peru (Fig. 3). Since gold projects are
mostly located in that area, the variation in precip-
itation extremes is not as marked as with zinc. This
becomes evident when visually contrasting in Fig-
ure 3 the boxplots of Cajamarca, La Libertad and
Piura (northern Peru) with the ones of Junin, Pasco
and Ancash (central Peru, where most zinc projects
take place). When compared to silver, only r10mm
exhibits a larger increase in median and interquartile
variation for gold.
Copper is the single commodity that comprises
projects in all super-regions, and as such, the varia-
tion of all precipitation indices represents an
aggregation of the climatic variability observed in
Peru from north to south. Only r95p exhibits a
boxplot with positive values for Q1, the median and
Q3. This is in line with the results observed in Fig-
ure 3, where r95p is the index with the largest in-
crease in most regions. In contrast to r95p, the
medians of the remaining indices are close to zero
for copper, with negative Q1 and positive Q3 values.
The marked negative variation in precipitation in-
dices for the regions representing southern Peru
(five projects) levels off with the noticeable increase
observed in central Peru (four projects) and at less
extent in northern Peru (one project).
Gonzalez, Raval, Taplin, Timms, and Hitch
DISCUSSION
There are marked differences in the variation of
precipitation indices across Peru from the north-
ernmost to the southernmost regions. Likewise, the
variation in some of the central regions is also sig-
nificant. Taking that into account, a classification of
mining regions is proposed here to assist in the
description of major changes in precipitation indices
estimated in this study. Four groups of mining re-
gions, or super-regions, were identified. The criteria
used to define each super-region are as follows.
Southern Peru: It entails PeruÕs southernmost
regions of Tacna, Arequipa and Moquegua. Other
than r95p in two cases, the median variation of all
precipitation indices in these regions is negative.
Another considerable feature of these regions is that
for the most part their Q1 and Q3 values are also
negative.
South-central Peru: It includes Ica, Puno, Cus-
co, Ayacucho and Huancavelina. One common
characteristic of these regions is that they present at
least two indices with medians close to zero and
narrow distributions in terms of interquartile range
(lower than 10%). Ica is the only case that could be
disputed from this group, as the variation in its
precipitation indices are more spread than the other
south-central regions. However, due to its geo-
graphical location, it was decided to allocate this
region into this group rather than in southern Peru.
Central Peru: It consists of Junin, Pasco and
Ancash. These regions present the three highest
r95p median values. At the same time, at least 75%
of the estimated distributions show an increase in
the variation of each precipitation index, as indi-
cated by positive Q1 and Q3 values in all cases.
Northern Peru: This super-region is comprised
by the northernmost regions of La Libertad, Caja-
marca and Piura. Similarly to central Peru, these
regions present only increases in the median of all
precipitation indices. In contrast to central PeruÕs
regions, the increase in r95p is not as marked, and in
some distributions, Q1 is negative.
The variation in precipitation indices aggre-
gated by commodity type is presented using blox-
plots in Figure 4. The four super-regions defined
previously have been used in the same figure to
indicate the number of mining projects for each
commodity. It is noted that the boxes for each
commodity type in Figure 4 are accounting for all
mining regions as specified in Table 1.
Evaluation of Impact of Potential Extreme Rainfall
Figure 4. Aggregated variation of ETCCDI precipitation indices over mining super-regions in Peru for the period 2015–2044 compared
to 1971–2000: (a) Variation in precipitation indices for all mining projects aggregated by commodity type. The variation is expressed in
vertical boxplots. Outliers are represented beyond 1.5 times the interquartile range as filled circles. (b) Number of mining projects per
commodity type grouped in mining super-regions.
Figure 4 shows that mining projects involving
zinc, silver and gold will potentially be exposed to
the largest variation in precipitation indices. The
increase in precipitation indices for zinc is particu-
larly evident for prpctot, rx5day and r95p, with
median variation above 10%.
Overall, mining projects located in the super-
region of southern Peru are the most likely to
experience a median decrease in precipitation ex-
tremes. That is particularly relevant for total annual
rainfall, rainfall intensity and frequency of extreme
events projected to occur in southern PeruÕs regions.
This is the super-region where copper is the most
important commodity, holding 70% of total reserves
(Table 1). Arguably this could be an indication that
Tacna, Arequipa and Moquegua might potentially
face dryer conditions in the future.
The south-central super-region has very specific
trends for each commodity type, largely governed by
its location. For iron ore, a single mining project
takes place in the coastal region of Ica, where all
precipitation indices in Figure 4 other than r10mm
show large variability and interquartile ranges. In
contrast, a single tin project is located in Puno, a
region situated on the opposite side of the Andes
Mountains and bordered by Bolivia to the West. The
distributions are the narrowest of the six commodi-
ties considered in this study and mostly of positive
variation. From Figure 3, it is clear that Puno is the
region with the narrowest distributions for prcptot,
sdii, rx5day and r10mm and second narrowest for
r95p. This fact explains why, in terms of commodity
type, tin presents the narrowest distributions among
all six commodities. Silver in south-central Peru also
experiences an increase in all precipitation indices.
Regions in central Peru are likely to experience
very wet conditions in the future. The median in-
crease in r95p is above 30% in all cases. Leaving
r95p aside, the increase in precipitation indices here
ranges between 5% and 20%. These wet projections
are particularly relevant for zinc projects, as this
super-region accounts for 90% of the countryÕs re-
serves according to Table 1.
Northern Peru holds almost 95% of the countryÕs
gold reserves (Table 1), and similar to central Peru, it
is also likely to experience an increase in precipita-
tion extremes. The increase in r95p for those mining
regions is less marked though, as the median increase
is ranging between 15% and 30%. It is interesting to
note that the variation in extremes related to rainfall
intensity or amount per day (r10mm) is observed with
greater increase in northern Peru as opposed to
 Gonzalez, Raval, Taplin, Timms, and Hitch

duration of events (rx5day), which in contrast will
likely increase more in central Peru.
Overall, r95p exhibited larger increases com-
pared to the other indices considered for this study.
This is possibly related to the standard baseline
period (1961–1990) used in the calculation of per-
centile-based ETCCDI indices, such as r95p. Skansi
et al. (2013) found evidence of decadal increase in
precipitation indices in Peru from 1950 to 2010.
Considering a more recent precipitation distribution
period (e.g., 1981–2010) for the calculation of r95p
could, in theory, lessen the variation between pro-
jections and historical values.
In this research, for the purpose of showing a
straightforward implementation of the proposed
methodology to estimate extreme rainfall variation
at a regional level, the same weight was assigned to
each mining project regardless of their proportion of
ore reserves. Different results could have been de-
rived in terms of aggregated precipitation indices
distributions should a weight had been assigned to
each project according to the ratio of ore reserves
per commodity type.
Figure 5 summarizes the main findings dis-
cussed in the latter paragraphs for each super-region
and commodity type. It is noteworthy to recall here

Gold with at least 75% of distribuons

showing posive variaon in all
precipitaon indices for Northern Peru.
Largest r10mm median increase
observed in this super-region.

Zinc in Central Peru shows

largest median increase in
each precipitaon index other
than r10mm amongst
commodity types.

Silver is the only

Iron ore only occurring in the coast commodity without
and with the widest distribuons scenarios of negave
for prcptot, sdii, rx5day and r95p. variaon in all five
Largest decreases in prcptot, sdii precipitaon indices.
and rx5day amongst commodity
types.
Tin only occurring in
South Central Peru,
with narrowest
distribuons for all
Copper for each region of precipitaon indices.
Southern Peru presents
negave median variaon
in all precipitaon indices
other than r95p.

Figure 5. Summary of findings for the variation in ETCCDI precipitation indices for Peru categorized by super-
regions and commodities. Only the main commodity types for each super-region are indicated in the figure.
Regions containing at least 10% of total ore reserves of any commodity are identified with the corresponding
legend symbol.
Evaluation of Impact of Potential Extreme Rainfall
the release of the latest environmental impact
assessments directive for the mining industry by the
Ministry of the Environment and the Ministry of
Energy and Mines of Peru (MINAM 2014). This
directive is pertaining to all regions in Peru, and in
terms of extreme rainfall, its only consideration is
with respect to 24-h design rainfall for the purpose
of effluent treatment. The findings of this study
highlight the importance of a thorough study of cli-
mate change and extreme weather events variation
in each individual mining region for the continuity of
projects over time. This is a relevant topic not only
for mining companies, but also for local govern-
ments.
The estimates presented here are based on one
GCM. A multi-model ensemble approach would be
desirable to produce more robust results. Other
GCMs that could be considered are CCCSM4
(CMIP5), given its good estimation of total precip-
itation and realistic capture of spatial distribution of
rainfall (Yin et al. 2013); MRI-CGCM2.3.2
(CMIP3), due to exhibiting better agreement with
observations in annual precipitation than two sub-
sets of CMIP3 ensembles across South America
(Gulizia and Camilloni 2015); or MIROC5
(CMIP5), as it has shown higher spatial correlation
of seasonal mean precipitation when downscaled
with the Eta model than a three-GCM one-RCM
ensemble (Chou et al. 2014). The source of uncer-
tainty from GHG emission scenarios was at least
partially addressed by considering all possible RCPs
and available realizations of the HadGEM2-ES
model.
Results from this research must be taken cau-
tiously. There are inherent uncertainties in global
and regional climate modeling, which may include
physical parametrization, numerical techniques,
horizontal and vertical resolution, just to name a
few. The emphasis in this research has been put into
the identification of trends and signals more than
absolute values. Considering a range of extreme
precipitation variation, mining companies and gov-
ernment institutions can take preventive measures in
order to better prepare for potential climate change
and extreme weather events impacts in the future.
CONCLUSIONS
AND RECOMMENDATIONS
This research provided an approach to identify
potential variation of extreme rainfall events asso-
ciated with a changing climate for the mining
industry at a country and regional level in South
America. The study presented here is the first re-
search that quantifies the variation in precipitation
indices at the regional scale for a mining country.
The use of ETCCDI climate change indices added
original value in the evaluation of potential scenar-
ios of extreme rainfall events change for the next
three decades in PeruÕs mining regions.
Peru was selected as case study country, due to
its relevance as a mining country and observed vul-
nerability to extreme rainfall events and subsequent
floods in the past. During this research, mining re-
gions across Peru with differing potentials of being
affected by extreme rainfall in the next few decades
were identified via examination of future climate
change scenarios and analysis of global climate
projections for precipitation extreme indices. It is
recommended that mining companies in the identi-
fied regions should take this information into ac-
count in decision making about design and planning
considerations for current and proposed new mining
projects or extensions.
The results of this study point out at a tendency
toward a decrease in rainfall extremes intensity and
frequency in southern Peru. For copper projects lo-
cated in these regions, a decrease in rainfall events
could also imply an eventual decrease in total pre-
cipitation and consequently a deficit in water avail-
ability during the next three decades. Mining regions
located in central Peru, with significant number of
zinc projects, are likely to experience a marked in-
crease in overall annual precipitation, average daily
precipitation intensity, consecutive days of precipi-
tation and number of heavy precipitation days. At a
lesser extent than in central Peru, gold projects in
northern Peru are also likely to experience an
overall increase in precipitation extremes.
It was also noticed that most commodity types
considered in this study are highly localized in
specific regions of Peru. Thinking ahead, copper
represents a varied venerability to precipitation ex-
tremes across the country. For example, drier con-
ditions expected in the south of the country as
opposed to wetter in the north.
The approach proposed in this study could rel-
atively easily be extended for other extreme weather
events. Considering a study of droughts or temper-
ature extremes in the Peruvian mining context
would provide a more complete picture of the
changes in extremes that the country may face in the
future. In South America, case studies of droughts in

Chile or Colombia would be equally relevant in the
mining context of those countries.
The direct application of the approach adopted
in this study is possible to apply where mine-site-
specific analysis of future climate scenarios is re-
quired. Such is the case of states or provinces where
the mining activity is significant and spread out
geographically, such as British Columbia in Canada
or New South Wales in Australia. The analysis of
extreme rainfall variation at the subregional level
would be possible with downscaled climate projec-
tions, which in the case of the aforementioned
countries is more abundant than in South American
countries.
It is stressed here that climate projections are
not to be considered forecast of future climate.
There is a degree of uncertainty in the baseline data
and the HadGEM2-ES climate projections selected
for this study. Uncertainty is inherent in the pro-
jection of any climate variable. For the case of pre-
cipitation, the confidence level in projected change
of magnitude and direction of this variable is less
certain than for temperature. The range of projec-
tions provided in this study should not be considered
as an explicit forecast of extreme precipitation
change over Peru for the next three decades. In-
stead, this research has provided a methodology to
provide with possible scenarios of future climate. In
the process, the reasoning behind selecting Had-
GEM2-ES as GCM and a set of five ETCCDI pre-
cipitation indices as metrics were described and
justified.
Future research can be directed toward devel-
oping a practical methodology for the assessment of
productivity losses associated with extreme rainfall
events at a mine-site level. For the purpose of an
assessment at the local level, analyses of historical
rainfall and production data need to be performed to
estimate operational impacts and losses. By con-
trasting future scenarios of precipitation extremes
with the long-term mine plan, the potential impact
in mined ore reserves due to the occurrence of ex-
treme rainfall events could be quantified. Consid-
eration of extreme rainfall events is equally
significant for effective mine closure planning.
This study is a starting point to detect potential
vulnerability of mining regions to extreme rainfall
events using Peru as a case example. It provides
relevant insight for companies operating in mineral
commodity markets, as well as information for
government bodies in charge of regulating and
promoting mining activities at a country and re-
Gonzalez, Raval, Taplin, Timms, and Hitch
gional scale. Given the operational consequences
and economic losses that an extreme event can in-
flict on mining projects, it is necessary to assess the
vulnerability implications from feasibility stage
through to mine closure.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Access to the SNL Metals & Mining database
has been possible through research funding granted
by the International Mining for Development Cen-
tre (IM4DC) and the Australian Centre for Sus-
tainable Mining Practices (ACSMP). The
corresponding author of this paper is also grateful
for the support to conduct his PhD research in the
School of Mining Engineering, UNSW, through a
Faculty Tuition Fee Scholarship and Research Sti-
pend. The quality of this paper was also improved
due to valuable feedback and comments provided by
two anonymous reviewers and by the Editor-in-
Chief of this journal, Dr John Carranza.
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