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Abstract
This paper, which is the first in a two-part series, sets out the development of a conceptual model on
the variables influencing investors’ decisions to use derivatives in their portfolios. Investor-specific
variables include: the investor’s needs, goals and return expectations, the investor’s knowledge of
financial markets, familiarity with different asset classes including derivative instruments, and the
investor’s level of wealth and level of risk tolerance. Market-specific variables include: the level of
volatility, standardisation, regulation and liquidity in a market, the level of information available on
derivatives, the transparency of price determination, taxes, brokerage costs and product availability.
Keywords: variables, instruments, crisis, conceptual model, South Africa, stock exchange, financial
markets, investor, volatility, availability, wealth
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Risk governance & control: financial markets & institutions / Volume 1, Issue 1, Winter 2011
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Risk governance & control: financial markets & institutions / Volume 1, Issue 1, Winter 2011
Investor Market
characteristics characteristics
P1 Level of volatility
0
P
1
Needs, goals and
P1 Level of
return
expectations 1 standardisation
P
2
P1 Level of
2 regulation
Knowledge of Use of
financial markets
derivative
P instruments
3 P1 Level of liquidity
3
Familiarity with
different asset P
classes 4 Level of
information
available on
derivative
P instruments and
P1
Familiarity with 5 the transparency
4
different of price
derivative determination
instruments
P
Level of wealth 6
P P1 Taxes
7 5
P
Level of risk 8 P1 Brokerage costs
tolerance 6
P
9
P1 Product
7 availability
Figure 1. Conceptual model of the variables influencing the use of derivative instruments in South Africa
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Risk governance & control: financial markets & institutions / Volume 1, Issue 1, Winter 2011
2. Research Design and Methodology A special, and the most traded, form of
credit derivatives is credit default swaps. Although
A phenomenological research paradigm the name suggests otherwise, credit default swaps
was adopted in this study, given the exploratory are not similar to interest rate or currency swaps. In
nature of the research. The conceptual model was the case of credit default swaps, cash-flows are not
developed based on an extensive literature review exchanged on certain predetermined dates, but only
as well as a pilot study conducted among six when certain ‗credit events‘ occur, such as failure
experts in the local financial services industry. by a debtor to pay interest or a complete default by
Before providing more details on the a debtor (Bodie, Kane and Marcus, 2009:810).
variables contained in the conceptual model, a brief Like collaterlised debt obligations, credit
overview of the role of derivatives in the 2008/2009 default swaps also promised high returns at almost
global financial crisis will be presented. no risk, at least according to rating agencies, such
as Fitch, Moody‘s and Standard & Poor‘s which
issued AAA – BBB ratings for most of these
3. The Role of Derivatives in the products (Beeken and Eversmeier, 2008). In times
2008/2009 Global Financial Crisis when interest rates were low, stock markets were at
their peaks and bond prices were high, only low
Through the securitisation of debt, returns were available for investors, increasing the
financial institutions, especially those in the USA, demand for these products.
created complex and high-risk credit derivatives. The simultaneous increase of interest rates
The most prominent credit derivatives developed and decline in housing prices in the USA led to
were collateralised debt obligations and credit major problems for debtors as they were no longer
default swaps. able to service their loans and mortgages
Collateralised debt obligations are a (Tomlinson and Evans, 2007:52). As a result the
special form of asset-backed securities in which cash-flows provided from debtors were no longer
financial institutions pool different illiquid debt available for financial institutions and their special
instruments, such as mortgage loans, credit card purpose vehicles could not service the interest
loans or consumer credits. In order to make these payments of their investors. Many financial
debts liquid, they are sold to special purpose institutions therefore had to provide huge amounts
vehicles which refinance themselves by issuing of cash themselves to pay investors, which led to
securities on the pooled assets by selling them to severe problems for many financial institutions and
investors (Lucas, Goodman and Fabozzi, 2006:3). some of them went bankrupt.
With credit derivatives, buyers and sellers As evident from the above, derivatives
reach a mutual bilateral agreement which provides were therefore not the main reason for the crisis,
the seller of the risk (protection buyer) with but were the underlying and accelerating factors
protection from the credit risk, as the seller that contributed to the crisis. For the first time after
transfers the credit risk to the protection seller. two decades of continuous growth of 20 percent or
Sellers of credit derivatives have to pay a premium more, the global derivatives markets grew only
to the buyer, which is based on the rating of the marginally by 0.12 percent in 2009 compared to
bonds or loans and the possible credit default risk. 2008 (Futures Industry Association, 2010).
It is essential for both parties to clearly specify the The impact the 2008/2009 global financial
credit default or ‗credit event‘ in terms of its crisis had on the South African derivatives market
occurrence and its possible cause. This is important will be illustrated in the following section.
as once the ‗credit event‘ occurs or is being
triggered, the payments from the protection seller to 4. The Impact of the Crisis on the South
the buyer are interrupted (Bloss, Ernst and Häcker, African Derivatives Market
2008:156).
Credit derivatives serve an important The 2008/2009 global financial crisis dealt
purpose. With the transfer of the default risk, they a major blow to the South African derivatives
provide protection to buyers (the sellers of the market. As indicated in Table 1, the total volume of
credit risk) with protection against payment defaults standardised contracts traded on the Johannesburg
in their credit portfolios. Thus, they are instruments Securities Exchange (JSE) decreased by 67.6
used for hedging (Bloss et al., 2008:156). percent in 2009 compared to 2008, leaving the JSE
the 15th largest derivatives exchange in the world.
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In 2008, the JSE was the leading global the Agricultural Division of the JSE also
derivatives exchange in terms of volumes traded in experienced a major decline in futures and options
single stock futures. Due to the 2008/2009 global traded (JSE, 2010).
financial crisis the contracts traded contracted by The main reasons why the local
78.8 percent in 2009 compared to 2008, resulting in derivatives market declined sharply in 2009 were
the JSE slipping from first to fourth place (World an increase in risk-aversion by local, but
Federation of Exchanges - 2009 market highlights, predominantly foreign investors who played a large
2010). role in the South African derivatives, equity and
Other standardised equity derivative bond markets, and the fact that many local investors
products‘ trading volumes, such as single stock lost large sums of money in the derivatives market.
options, index options and futures, Can-Do options, Furthermore, an overall decline in equity markets
dividend futures and variance futures (South across the world led to many investors pulling out
African Volatility Index Square) also declined of emerging equity and derivatives markets in
between 13 percent and 30 percent year-on-year. general.
The only exceptions were Can-Do futures which However, it is necessary to mention that
experienced a substantial growth in volumes traded contracts for difference, already a very popular
(JSE, 2009a; JSE, 2009b; JSE, 2008a; JSE, 2008b). market overseas, especially in Europe and the USA,
Despite the introduction of new underlying is also gaining in popularity in South Africa. These
commodities, such as gold, crude oil and platinum, over-the-counter traded products are preferred by
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Risk governance & control: financial markets & institutions / Volume 1, Issue 1, Winter 2011
many investors to futures and options as they are 5. The Variables Influencing the
more transparent and easier to understand. Use of Derivatives in Portfolios
Credit derivatives do not play a major role
in the South African financial services industry and As indicated in the conceptual model
were hardly used by local investors prior or after (Figure 1), there are six investor-specific and eight
the 2008/2009 global financial crisis. The main market-specific variables that could influence
reasons for that are that South African investors are investors‘ decisions whether or not to use
protected by exchange controls that do not allow derivatives in their portfolios. Each of these
them to invest large portions of their assets in variables, along with their suggested propositions,
overseas products. Furthermore, the local credit will be discussed next.
derivatives market is very immature and credit
derivative products are hardly available (Selby, 5.1 Investor-specific variables
2008:10).
The following section will focus on the The investor-specific variables are
variables influencing investors‘ decisions whether outlined in Table 3.
or not to use derivatives in their portfolios.
The investor‘s P1: Investors with clearly defined investment goals and Jooste (2010); Venter
needs, goals and return expectations are more likely to use derivative (2010); Chen (2008); Maier
return instruments. (2004); Cummins, Phillips
expectations P2: Investors with high return expectations are more likely to and Smith (1998)
use derivative instruments.
The investor‘s P3: Investors who have a greater knowledge of financial Martin et al. (2009); Mayo
knowledge of markets are more likely to include derivative instruments in (2008); Stultz (1996); Mian
financial their portfolios. (1996)
markets
Familiarity with P4: Investors who have a greater knowledge of different asset Martin et al. (2009); Mayo
different asset classes are more likely to include derivative instruments in (2008); Stultz (1996); Mian
classes their portfolios. (1996)
Familiarity with P5: Investors who have a greater knowledge of different Martin et al. (2009); Mayo
derivative derivative instruments are more likely to include derivative (2008); Stultz (1996); Mian
instruments instruments in their portfolios. (1996)
The investor‘s P6: High net worth private investors are more likely to use Bartram, Brown and Fehle
level of wealth derivative instruments than less affluent private investors. (2003)
P7: Institutional investors with higher levels of assets under
management are more likely to use derivative instruments
than smaller institutional investors.
The investor‘s P8: Risk-averse investors are more likely to use derivative Maier (2004); Hentschel
level of risk instruments for hedging purposes than risk-seeking investors. and Smith Jr. (1997)
tolerance P9: Risk-seeking investors are more likely to use derivative
instruments for speculating purposes than risk-averse
investors.
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5.1.1 Investors’ needs, goals and derivative instruments for hedging purposes, thus
return expectations avoiding major declines in returns due to
unfavourable market developments. Nevertheless,
Investors‘ needs, expectations and investors should be careful when using derivative
investment goals are closely linked to each other. instruments in order to satisfy their return
When creating portfolios investors first think about expectations and meet their investment goals, as
the needs they have in terms of capital preservation, these products bear risk.
capital growth and/or income. After that they Independent studies conducted by
formulate their investment goals, which are Cummins, Phillips and Smith (1998:51) and Chen
reflected in their return expectations. (2008) show that institutional investors, who cannot
According to HSBC-Trinkhaus (2010), afford or who are not willing to lose returns, prefer
investors‘ needs and investment goals are primarily to use derivative instruments to hedge their long
reflected by the expected returns. In order to meet positions in their portfolios. Although they will
the expected returns, investors have to choose the suffer a decline in returns, it will not lead to major
appropriate asset classes and determine how much capital depreciations due to their hedging strategy,
of their money they are going to invest in them. A as return losses in the underlying long positions will
basic rule is that the higher the potential returns of be off-set by the hedging strategy‘s positive returns.
assets are, the higher the risk associated with them. The benefit of the hedging strategy is that investors
Thus, the higher the income needs investors have to avoid major return declines which could cost them
derive from their investment, the more risky asset a lot of money.
classes and securities they have to use. Private investors can also make use of
Investors in the accumulation phase derivative instruments to protect their portfolios of
generally prefer more risky investments as they potential declines in returns which in effect will
want to accumulate as much capital as possible and reduce their incomes and living standards.
increase their monetary wealth. Investors therefore Considering the independent studies of Cummins et
follow a capital appreciation strategy and will al. (1998) and Chen (2008), the different phases of
predominantly use derivative products for the investor life cycle and the different investment
speculating rather than hedging. Although this strategies to achieve the investors‘ goals, the
strategy is very risky, investors can realise following two propositions can be made:
considerable profits due to the leverage and
flexibility derivatives offer (Lundell, 2007). P1: Investors with clearly defined
Investors in the consolidation phase investment goals and return expectations are more
generally prefer less risky asset classes and likely to use derivative instruments.
securities. As derivatives are considered risky,
investors with a capital preservation strategy will P2: Investors with high return
typically use them less frequently for speculation, expectations are more likely to use derivative
but rather for hedging. instruments.
Investors in the spending phase generally
do not have a need to use derivatives for 5.1.2 The investor’s knowledge of and
speculation as they should have obtained enough familiarity with financial markets and
funds to cover their living expenses. In order to different asset classes (including
protect their capital, investors in the spending phase derivatives)
can use derivatives for hedging, but as they
generally prefer less risky assets and securities, they Once investors have formulated their
generally do not use them at all. This might be a bit income and distribution needs and established their
different in South Africa as only about ten percent investment goals and return expectations, the next
of the population will be able to retire and maintain step is to decide which asset classes are most
their living standards with the funds they are suitable for their portfolios. Investors‘ knowledge
currently saving and investing (Jooste, 2010:59). and familiarity with financial markets and different
As derivatives offer the potential for high asset classes play an important role in this regard as
returns in a short period of time due to their investors need to understand what the dangers and
leverage effect, investors with high return benefits of each asset class and financial security
expectations and a short investment horizon are are (Martin, Rojas, Erausquin, Yupanqui, Vera and
generally more interested in derivative instruments Bauer, 2009:73).
than investors with long-term investment Investors with greater knowledge and
objectives. In addition, investors, regardless of experience in dealing with different asset classes
which phase of the life cycle they are in, can use
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(unlimited) financial losses and the studies money market instruments. In general, money
conducted by the International Swaps and market instruments and bonds issued by
Derivatives Association (2009) and Bartram, governments are considered the safest asset classes,
Brown and Fehle (2003:40), the following as government receives taxes and can pay back
propositions can be stated: debts (Bodie et al., 2009:747; Brigham and
Ehrhardt, 2005:163).
P6: High net worth private investors are It is not only the asset classes and
more likely to use derivative instruments than less securities investors should take into consideration
affluent private investors. when making investment decisions and determining
their level of risk tolerance, but also the country and
P7: Institutional investors with higher market they are going to invest in, as different
levels of assets under management are more likely countries bear different risks. Investing in emerging
to use derivative instruments than smaller markets is more risky than investing in developed
institutional investors. countries‘ markets due to the greater volatility that
emerging markets are exposed to (Bodie et al.,
5.1.4 The investor’s level of risk 2009:871).
tolerance Despite the fact that derivative instruments
are often considered complex and volatile, they are
The extent to which investors are willing suitable for investment strategies of all three groups
to expose themselves to risks is referred to as ‗risk of investors (risk-seeking, risk-averse and risk-
tolerance‘. Investors‘ risk tolerance is basically neutral). Derivative instruments can be used either
investors‘ willingness to accept risks in order to for speculation or hedging as their leverage offers
achieve a certain return. There are three types of great return possibilities and they can provide
investors, namely risk-averse investors, risk-neutral positive returns in declining markets (Bloss et al.,
investors and risk-seeking investors (Maier, 2008:7).
2004:17). As investors have certain investment Considering the study of Hentschel and
needs, goals and return expectations they, need to Smith Jr. (1997:305) as well as the assumption that
find asset classes that can satisfy their needs and private investors are typically risk-averse, whereas
yield the expected returns. The asset classes institutional investors are risk-seeking, the
identified during the asset allocation process might following propositions can be made:
be suitable for investors‘ needs and investment
goals as well as return expectations. However, too P8: Risk-averse investors are more likely
often the identified asset classes or securities bear to use derivative instruments for hedging purposes
risks that investors are not willing to take or cannot than risk-seeking investors.
afford to take.
The risk of an asset class or security is P9: Risk-seeking investors are more likely
determined by two major variables. The first is the to use derivative instruments for speculating
volatility. The greater the up and down swings of an purposes than risk-averse investors.
asset class or security, the greater the potential risk
that investors can experience losses, but also the 5.2 Market-specific variables
greater the chance of high returns. The second
factor is the expected return of an asset class, and is The market-specific variables that could
closely related to the first variable. Equities and impact on investors‘ decisions to use derivatives are
derivative instruments offer high returns, but their outline in Table 4.
price fluctuations are greater than those of bonds or
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5.2.1 The level of volatility in a market in increasing but also declining markets (Bloss et al.,
2008:59).
One major feature with which investors can Nevertheless, investors have to keep in mind
differentiate the risk of a market is volatility. The that derivative instruments are used for rather short-
greater the up and down price fluctuations of the term strategies, thus they are only efficient in
market are, the greater the risk involved in investing temporary market conditions. Furthermore, derivative
in it. The volatility of markets is influenced by several instruments should only be used for hedging strategies
factors, such as the general economic conditions, when investors feel that their long positions could
interest rates or investor confidence (Brigham and suffer losses. Hedging strategies are less efficient in
Ehrhardt, 2005:162). times of low volatility and bull markets.
Investors creating portfolios and selecting According to Steinbrenner (2001:322), risk-
asset classes must determine whether or not their risk averse investors generally seek more protection
tolerance allows them to invest in more volatile, more (hedging) in highly volatile markets, and although
risky markets. Investors also have to consider which less volatile markets with upward trends offer better
asset classes will provide them with their expected investment conditions for risk-seeking and risk-
returns. Thus, they have to identify how these asset neutral investors for speculation, they also offer high
classes are currently performing and what variables return possibilities in volatile markets.
influence future developments (Mayo, 2008:146). Derivatives are therefore suitable for both
Derivative instruments are financial products strategies and market conditions, and the following
that are certainly beneficial in markets with high proposition can be stated:
volatility, as investors can apply different strategies, P10: Investors are more likely to use
such as protective puts, straddles, strangles or collars. derivative instruments when markets exhibit a great
Such strategies allow investors to profit from deal of volatility.
uncertain market movements, as their pay-out profiles
are structured in such a way that profits can be made
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5.2.4 The level of information available 5.2.5 The level of liquidity in a market
on derivatives and the transparency of
determination in a market ‗Liquidity‘ in financial markets generally
refers to the ease of trading financial securities
In order to make sound investment decisions, speedily and without excessive deviations from the
investors need to know how the company or current competitive price. Thus, liquid financial
government they purchase assets and securities from markets offer investors the possibility to trade
is performing at the time, and what the future securities frequently and at times when they want to
expectations of all are (Organisation for Economic purchase or sell financial products with little or no
Co-operation and Development, 2006:12). loss in value (Firer, Ross, Westerfield and Bradford,
It is important that investment markets are 2004:25).
transparent and continuously provide information Markets with low or little liquidity carry
about prices. Only with prices that are current can major risks for investors. The main problem or
investors determine whether there is still value in a constraint in markets with low liquidity is that
particular asset class and to what extent the asset class investors are often not able to purchase or sell
and individual securities are under- or overvalued. In securities they want to, as no counterparty is available
addition, it is only possible with continuous and or interested in buying or selling at the current prices.
transparent price findings for investors to trade This in turn leads to limited trading activities and
regularly and to react to current market trends (Maier, insufficient price determinations (Brink, 2010:22;
2004:108). Bodie et al., 2009:955).
Transparency and access to information give Regulated and standardised markets, such as
all investors the same opportunities, implying that stock exchanges, generally provide investors with a
nobody will be disadvantaged. What can happen to substantial level of liquidity. Although there are
investors should they not get proper and transparent individual securities which are traded less frequently,
information about securities was seen in 2008/2009 the JSE can be considered a liquid market.
during the global financial crisis. Although rating Just how problematic illiquid markets can
agencies provided complex and risky securities with become for investors was evident in the 2008/2009
investment grades, those products left investors with global financial markets when the markets for credit
huge losses. derivatives dried up. Investors were no longer able to
Investors can only make efficient use of sell credit defaults swaps or collateralised debt
derivative instruments if they understand the market obligations as there were no counterparties to
dynamics and have the necessary technological tools purchase them. As a result investors had to write off
and information available to use them (Steinbrenner, their investments, and experienced major losses.
2001:98). According to Securities Industry and Futures
Transparency of derivative products is Market Association (2010), the advantages of liquid
essential because without it investors may end up markets for investors are twofold. Firstly, they can
buying securities that are complex, high risk and not gain access to and trade securities readily once they
suitable for their risk-return profile. Without expect to make profits on them. Secondly, they can
transparency investors are exposed to dangers of exit markets easily and sell their assets once they
paying prices that do not reflect the current intrinsic expect them to decline in value, or if they need to
value of a security. Investors need to be informed as invest the proceeds somewhere else. In addition,
to how prices are determined in order to avoid easier trading conditions lead to a reduction in the
overpriced investment. liquidity risk premium demanded by investors.
Considering the studies of Wurgler (1999) There are five major characteristics of a
and Thorbecke (1995) as well as the effects of the liquid financial market, namely depth, tightness,
2008/2009 global financial crisis and the excessive resilience, timely dependable clearance, and
use of derivative instruments traded in over-the- settlement. Without the necessary liquidity investors
counter markets with very little or no price and might end up with securities in their portfolios that
information transparency, the following proposition they are unable to sell at the current market prices.
can be made: This is a particular problem for investors who make
use of derivative instruments. Derivatives increase
P13: Investors are more likely to use and decline in value at a fast pace, and investors wish
derivative instruments in markets where information to realise profits once their derivative products
is readily available and price determination is develop favourably and not wait until prices decline.
transparent. If investors are unable to sell derivative products
quickly, they expose themselves to greater risk should
markets develop unfavourably.
The following proposition will thus be
empirically tested:
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Risk governance & control: financial markets & institutions / Volume 1, Issue 1, Winter 2011
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Risk governance & control: financial markets & institutions / Volume 1, Issue 1, Winter 2011
lead to ineffective investments and high losses, the conceptual model and the propositions semi-
especially concerning derivative instruments structured personal interviews with 21 experts in the
(Steinbrenner, 2001:80). South African financial services industry were
By increasing the product range, financial conducted in the period between June and July 2010.
institutions have to make sure that there is sufficient The empirical findings are reported in the second
demand for their latest products and that investors are paper in this series.
willing to invest in it. If this is not the case, investors
will end up in markets with very little trading activity
and infrequent price determinations, thus reduced
liquidity. This in turn increases the risks investors are
exposed to, as their portfolios may then include
investments that develop unfavourably and they are
unable to sell (HSBC-Trinkhaus, 2007:13).
Based on the above, the following
proposition is formulated:
Summary
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Risk governance & control: financial markets & institutions / Volume 1, Issue 1, Winter 2011
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Risk governance & control: financial markets & institutions / Volume 1, Issue 1, Winter 2011
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