Peran Pajak dalam Pemulihan

Ekonomi Nasional
Arti Adji
Fakultas Ekonomika dan Bisnis
Universitas Gadjah Mada
Countries’ Responses to Pandemic (1)
• Many countries have already acted forcefully to limit the economic
hardship caused by the direct effects of containment measures.
• providing liquidity support to businesses to help them stay afloat.
• providing income support to vulnerable households.
• Policy adaptation will be key.
• Shift from support to limit hardship and maintain economic capacity to
stimulus for economic recovery as containment and mitigation measures are
relaxed.
• Specific support will be necessary for developing countries (facing the
pandemic with weaker healthcare systems, less favorable conditions
to sustain containment, larger informal economies and smaller scope
for fiscal and monetary policy).
Countries’ Responses to Pandemic (2)
• Immediate measures have supported business cash-flow, household
income and employment.
• Policy during containment and mitigation should protect household income
and employment, and keep businesses afloat.
• Tax support should be targeted to those that need help the most.
• While administratively costly, targeting may help improve outcomes over time
by allowing stronger support where the need is most pressing.
• Support can focus on the hardest hit sectors.
• SMEs could be prioritized as they may be less able to withstand liquidity and
solvency risks.
(OECD, 2020, Tax and Fiscal Policy in Response to the Coronavirus Crisis)
Tax Policies in the Aftermath of the Crisis
• Tax revenues are likely to be significantly reduced for a number of years, due to:
• the direct effects of the crisis
• policy action during the crisis
• The best way to boost tax revenue is to support solid growth, through strong and
sustained stimulus.
• Tax policy can contribute to cover the costs of the crisis and policy responses to it.
• Efforts to restore public finances should not come too early, but when they come tax will
play a key role.
• Revenue levels and tax structure may need to be adapted after the pandemic.
• The unprecedented nature of the crisis is prompting a reflection: some new tax
measures could be contemplated; more traditional ones reconsidered.
• This could include reflections on how to support progressivity of the overall tax system.
• Need to address the tax challenges of the digitalization of the economy and financing
SDGs (consider differential taxation to support green economy, less harmful products).
Fiscal Stimulus: US Case
Three giant legislative packages extended different types of
coronavirus-related relief:
• two rounds of stimulus checks,
• expanded unemployment benefits,
• a series of tax breaks.
• a $1.9 trillion stimulus package, provide many people with
yet another check.
(https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/12/your-money/taxes/covid-taxes-
2020.html)
Tax Breaks: US Case
• Tax breaks on unemployment benefits:
• The new relief bill will make the first $10,200 of benefits tax-free with income less than
$150,000. This applies to 2020 only.
• Untaxed stimulus payments:
• Economic impact payments are not treated as income.
• They’re technically an advance on a tax credit, known as the Recovery Rebate Credit.
• Two new tax credits:
• For sick leave and
• For family leave
• Can reduce tax burden or provide a refund.
• Taxpayers can use their 2019 income instead of 2020, if it’s higher and will generally result in
a larger credit.
• Additional child tax credits:
• Individuals can collect up to $1,400 a child as a refund, even if they don’t owe any tax.
American Rescue Plan (1)
• Stimulus checks, unemployment insurance, child tax credit
• $1,400 stimulus checks, on top of the $600 payments issued
previously. (Total of checks at $422 billion).
• Individuals earning less than $75,000 would receive $1,400
and married couples earning less than $150,000 would
receive $2,800.
• Expanded unemployment insurance and child tax credit
• Weekly benefit increases from $300 to $400 per week.
• Expansion of Child Tax Credit to $3,000 per child, and $3,600
for children under age 6.
• Expansion of the Child and Dependent Tax Credit so families
can claim up to half of their child care expenses on their taxes.
American Rescue Plan (2)
• Pandemic response
• $50 billion for coronavirus testing and contact tracing.
• $19 billion to increase the size of the public health workforce.
• $16 billion to fund vaccine distribution and supply chains.
• Aid for state and local governments and transit
• $350 billion for state and local governments, territories and
tribes.
• $90 billion for various transportation and infrastructure causes.
• $47 billion for the Disaster Relief Fund
American Rescue Plan (3)
• Schools and child care block grants:
• Almost $130 billion for K-12 education.
• Almost $40 billion for colleges and other higher-education institutions.
• Almost $40 billion would go to child care providers.
• Assistance for food, rent and mortgages:
• More than $5 billion in emergency nutrition benefits for school
children.
• $30 billion in emergency rental assistance and other relief for the
homeless.
• $10 billion goes to mortgage assistance.
(https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021/02/26/american-rescue-
plan-house-coronavirus-stimulus/)
Indonesian Story: Pemulihan Ekonomi Nasional
Insentif Pajak:
• PPh Pasal 21 Ditanggung Pemerintah (DTP) - Karyawan ber-NPWP dan
penghasilan bruto bersifat tetap dan teratur yang disetahunkan tidak lebih
dari 200 juta.
• Total Nilai Insentif: Rp25,66 T
• PPh Final UMKM Ditanggung Pemerintah
• Total Nilai Insentif: Rp2,4 T
• Pembebasan PPh Pasal 22 Impor
• Total Nilai Insentif: Rp14,75 T
• Pengembalian pendahuluan PPN sebagai PKP berisiko rendah bagi WP yang
menyampaikan SPT Masa PPN lebih bayar restitusi paling banyak Rp5 M.
• Total Nilai Insentif: Rp5,8 T
Taxation Problems and Challenges in Indonesia:
Further Agenda
What’s Going On?
What Can We Do?:
Structure: Progressive
vs Regressive Broadening Excise Tax
Reform:
Complexities:Fairness; Alterations of Income
Tax Problems: More equitable Brackets and Tax
Tax Evasion
taxation Rates: Toward
Low Tax Ratio Opportunity: Digital
More efficient Progressivity
Untapped Potential Economy
taxation Differential Taxation
Revenues Collection: Public and Tax Incentives for
Perception Taxation which Green Economy and
Late Response of supports SDGs Less Harmful Products
Regulation to Industry
Development
 Perlunya Ekstensifikasi Cukai: Perkembangan Pertumbuhan
Belanja APBN dan Penerimaan Cukai, 2002-2019
40.0%

35.0%
33.3%
30.0%
30.9% 30.1%

25.0%
24.3%
23.4%
22.5%
20.0%
19.3%
18.3%
16.9% 16.7% 16.4%
15.0% 14.7% 15.2% 15.3%
13.3% 13.5% 14.0% 13.6% 13.6% 14.1%

11.0% 10.7% 11.2% 10.7% 10.8%

10.0%
8.9% 8.0%
7.7%
6.8%
5.0%
4.1%
1.7% 2.4%
0.0%
-0.8%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
-5.0%
-5.7% -4.9%

-10.0%
Belanja APBN Penerimaan Cukai
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Belanja APBN (dalam triliun) 341,56 322,18 376,51 427,18 509,63 667,13 757,65 985,77 937,38 1.042,12 1.295,00 1.491,41 1.650,56 1.777,18 1.806,52 2.082,95 2.133,30 2.220,66 2.461,11
Pertumbuhan Belanja APBN
(%) -5,7% 16,9% 13,5% 19,3% 30,9% 13,6% 30,1% -4,9% 11,2% 24,3% 15,2% 10,7% 7,7% 1,7% 15,3% 2,4% 4,1% 10,8%
Penerimaan Cukai (dalam
triliun) 17,39 23,19 26,28 29,17 33,26 37,77 44,68 51,25 56,72 66,17 77,01 95,03 108,45 118,09 144,64 143,53 153,29 159,58 172,42
Pertumbuhan Penerimaan
Cukai (%) 33,3% 13,3% 11,0% 14,0% 13,6% 18,3% 14,7% 10,7% 16,7% 16,4% 23,4% 14,1% 8,9% 22,5% -0,8% 6,8% 4,1% 8,0%
Perlunya Ekstensifikasi Cukai: Rasio Penerimaan
Cukai terhadap Penerimaan Non-Cukai, 2001-2019
13.00%

11.66% 12.00%
11.41%
11.04% 10.86% 11.17%
11.00% 10.40% 10.30% 10.51%
10.07% 9.67%
9.58% 9.69% 9.28% 9.26% 10.00%
9.37% 9.23% 9.26%
9.10% 9.15% 9.15%
8.81% 8.28%
9.00% 9.59%
7.77% 7.71% 7.57% 7.64% 9.22% 9.20% 7.65%
7.24% 7.78% 8.00%
7.13%
6.73% 6.70% 6.67% 8.21%
6.33% 6.39%
7.77% 7.70% 5.94% 7.62% 7.64%
7.00%
5.79% 7.54%
7.23% 7.10% 6.00%
5.23%
6.72% 6.68% 6.65%
6.31% 6.36%
5.78% 5.92%
5.00%
5.22% 4.00%

3.00%
2.00%

1.00% 0.00%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Cukai terhadap Penerimaan Negara Cukai terhadap Penerimaan Pajak
Cukai terhadap Penerimaan Domestik
Efficient and Equitable Taxation: Shall We
Tax Sembako?
• Efficiency:
• Taxes on inelastically demanded goods create smaller dead weight
loss (inefficiency) than tax on elastically demanded goods.
• Equity:
• The Poor’s Marginal Propensity to Consume > The Rich’s Marginal
Propensity to Consume
• Therefore, taxing sembako is INEQUITABLE, especially in the
pandemic era when the poor, the vulnerable, and lower middle
class are the hardest-hit.
Deadweight Loss of Taxes (DWL) on Inelastic
Commodity vs Elastic Commodity
Excise Tax on Inelastic Commodity: Smaller Excise Tax on Elastic Commodity: Larger DWL
DWL
Concern: Who Consumes the Elastic
Concern: Who Consumes the Inelastic Commodity? The Poor or the Rich?
Commodity? The Poor or the Rich?
Thank You