Case Study- The Total Flood Warning

System

Submitted by:
Farooque Ahmed(U1122089)
Table of Contents
1. Background 3
2. Introduction 3
3. Aims and Objectives 4
3.1 Monitoring and Prediction 4
3.2 Interpretation 4
3.3 Message Buildup 4
3.4 Communication 4
3.5 Protective Behavior 4
3.6 Reviews and upgrade 4

4. System Design 5
5. Elements of Flood Prediction 5
5.1 Lead time warning 5
5.2 Flood height and time 6
5.3 Frequency Prediction 6

6. Stakeholders 6
7. Challenges and improvements 7
7.1 Accuracy of system 7
7.2 Proper warning system 7

8. References 7

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1. Background
The flooding of rivers occurs mostly due to the heavy rainfall and high
tides in coastal areas in Australia. Many fatalities and damage occur if
it’s not handled properly and safety and precautionary measures are not
followed. The major risk of rainfall is in urban areas where drainage
system is not installed properly.
The output of Machine learning based algorithm to detect flood
prediction is show below and is based on rainfall in mm.

2. Introduction
The “Total Flood warning system” is established by Australian
government. Some specified agencies are hired under this system and
their working is to complete specific task. Their major task is to
contribute in the development of effective Flood Management System.

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3. Aims and Objectives
In order to achieve the effective flood warning system, it must have six
components which are stated below:
3.1 Monitoring and prediction
It must predict the river level during heavy rainfalls by measuring the
intensity of rain and predict the flood accordingly.
3.2 Interpretation
The risk of upcoming flood must be calculated before time and safety
will be taken accordingly.
3.3 Message buildup
The message is created which best describes the maximum danger
occur due to the flood.
3.4 Communication
The warning message must be spread to the people who are in
danger of the upcoming flood.
3.5 Protective behavior
The agencies which are working for this system must take all
necessary actions so that the disaster will not create much danger.
3.6 Reviews and Upgrade
It must be reviewed and upgraded after specific regular intervals. The
faults in the system must be improved with time.

The efficient flood warning system will work only if all above six
components are present in the system and working in pipeline instead of
isolate working.
Pipeline working phenomenon is described in image shown below:

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4. System Design
In order to establish the Total Flood Warning System, it must fulfill the
following points:
 Effect of flood on different rainfall levels and that can easily be
made through Machine learning based algorithm.
 Way of communication for warning messages.
 At what threshold value warning of flood is required.
 Required warning time for upcoming flood.
The below illustration describes the warning time and accuracy of flood.

5. Elements of Flood Prediction

5.1 Lead time of warning
The lead time of warning represents the timing between the
prediction warning time and the time at which the predicted height is
achieved by flood. Lead time of warning should be large for the
efficient flood warning systems. Prediction of flood contain time
because it requires
 Meteorological forecasting
 Collection of data from network gauges
 Run the hydrologic and hydraulic flood prediction models.
 Preparation of warning message.

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 5.2 Flood height and time
The main prediction during flood prediction is prediction of expected
height of flood in specific time. By measuring the flood height, it
determines that the flood is of minor level, moderate level or risk
level. We can predict this estimated height using convolutional neural
network (CNN) of machine learning.
The predicted flood height and time graph of Ipswich is shown below:

5.3 Prediction Frequency

The prediction frequency optimal value is dependent on area and it
varies for different areas and it predicts the speed of rise and fall of
flood accordingly. In flatten valleys, flood travels for a long distance
and where gradients are more steep flood travels shorter distance.

6. Stakeholders
This system is established by Australian government and some
agencies are part of it and act as a stakeholder including
 Catchment Management Authority (CMA)
 Local Government (LG)
 Fire and Emergency Services Authority (FESA)
 State/Territory Emergency Service (S/TES)
 Bureau of Meteorology (BoM)
 Department of Community Safety (DCS)
 Melbourne Water (MW)

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7. Challenges and improvements
7.1 Accuracy of system
The accuracy of this system is still not so good and the betterment in
accuracy will be achieved if we make more layers in convolutional
neural Network (CNN) and take more input data of previous years for
its better training. The alterative way is to use Linear Kernel
Convolutional Neural Network (LKCNN) which has higher prediction
efficiency.
7.2 Proper Warning System
Many of times, flood occurs in urban areas of Australia and the
people are somehow unaware of digital media and warning message
must also be delivered in their traditional way to make it spread at
appropriate time.

8. References:

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