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  • State of Nature State 1 State 2 State 3 Altern Ative A A Prior Proba Bility

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    1) The document contains information about three cases labeled E1, E2 and E3. E1 and E2 provide information about alternatives and their maximum payoffs in different states of nature. E2 also includes prior probabilities. E3 provides additional information about outcomes and probabilities. 2) Case E2 involves choosing between alternatives A1 and A2, with A2 having the maximum payoff of 220. A2 is also most likely based on its prior probability of 0.6 for state 3. 3) Across the cases, the optimal choices are A1 for E1, A2 for E2, and developing gas for E3.

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    Book2

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    1) The document contains information about three cases labeled E1, E2 and E3. E1 and E2 provide information about alternatives and their maximum payoffs in different states of nature. E2 also includes prior probabilities. E3 provides additional information about outcomes and probabilities. 2) Case E2 involves choosing between alternatives A1 and A2, with A2 having the maximum payoff of 220. A2 is also most likely based on its prior probability of 0.6 for state 3. 3) Across the cases, the optimal choices are A1 for E1, A2 for E2, and developing gas for E3.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    5 views4 pages

    State of Nature State 1 State 2 State 3 Altern Ative A A Prior Proba Bility

    Uploaded by

    rizqighani
    1) The document contains information about three cases labeled E1, E2 and E3. E1 and E2 provide information about alternatives and their maximum payoffs in different states of nature. E2 also includes prior probabilities. E3 provides additional information about outcomes and probabilities. 2) Case E2 involves choosing between alternatives A1 and A2, with A2 having the maximum payoff of 220. A2 is also most likely based on its prior probability of 0.6 for state 3. 3) Across the cases, the optimal choices are A1 for E1, A2 for E2, and developing gas for E3.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 4

    E1 Alterna State of Nature

    tive State 1 State 2 State 3 Max


    A1 4 2 8 8 Max
    A2 3 1 3 3
    A3 4 6 5 5
    Choose A1

    E2 State of Nature
    Altern
    ative State 1 State 2 State 3
    Max

    A1 150 110 170 170


    A2 180 200 220 220 Max

    Prior
    Proba 0.1 0.3 0.6
    bility Choose A2

    s1 0.1 150
    E3 s2 0.3 110
    A1 150 s3 0.6 170
    s1 0.1 180
    s2 0.3 200
    A2 210 s3 0.6 220

    10
    Case 0.75 Success 0.3 Success
    Electrical
    0.25 Fail -3
    5.975 -6.1 0.7 Fail
    8.44 0.6 Success 15
    Gas 0.8 Success
    0.4 Fail -7
    8.44 0.2 Fail
    -1.4

    Choose to develop gas


    Min

    1
    4 Max
    Choose A3

    Min Likelihood Bayes

    110 Mostlikely State 3 A1 150

    180 Max Max Payoff 220 A2 210

    Choose A2 Choose A2 Choose A2

    Choose A2

    10
    3

    -10
    15
    3

    -19

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