1

Climate Change and Adaptation

in Asia: Key Findings of the IPCC
5th Assessment Report

Juan M. Pulhin, Professor and Dean

College of Forestry and Natural Resources
University of the Philippines Los Baños
 Outline
 Overview of IPCC WG2
 Observed and projected climate change in
Asia
 Sectoral Impacts and Vulnerability
 Food security
 Water resources
 Terrestrial ecosystem
 Marine and coastal ecosystems
 Key Risks and potential for adaptation
 Towards a climate-resilient pathways
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CLIMATE CHANGE 2014:
IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY

AR5, IPCC WGII

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 WG 2 Framework: the solution space
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IPCC WG2 SPM, 2014

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Chapter 24, Asia: 
Coverage ‐ 51 countries/regions

Source: IPCC, 2013

5
Observed and projected changes 
in annual average temperature in Asia

IPCC WG 2 Asia, 2014

6
 Observed and projected changes 
in annual average precipitation in Asia
7

A wetter and drier Asia

IPCC WG 2 Asia, 2014

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 Source: IPCC, 2013
Observations of Past Events
Climate  Asia Southeast Asia
Phenomenon
Heat Waves It is likely that the frequency of heat waves has  No Specific 
increased in large parts of Asia. Observations
Drought More megadroughts occurred in monsoon Asia and  No Specific 
wetter conditions prevailed in arid Central Asia  Observations
monsoon region during the Little Ice Age (1450–
1850) compared to the Medieval Climate Anomaly 
(950–1250) (Medium confidence)
Floods Past floods larger than recorded since the 20th  No Specific 
century occurred during the past five centuries in  Observations
eastern Asia (high confidence). In the Near East 
and India modern large floods are comparable or 
surpass historical floods in magnitude and/or 
frequency (medium confidence).
 Source: IPCC, 2013
Future Projections
Climate  Asia Southeast Asia
Phenomenon
Precipitation Future increase in precipitation 
extremes related to the monsoon is very 
Future  increase in precipitation 
likely in East Asia, South Asia and  extremes  related to the monsoon is very likely in 
Southeast Asia.
Southeast Asia.
Indian monsoon rainfall is projected to  There is low confidence in projections of future changes in 
increase. For the East Asian summer  the Madden‐Julian Oscillation due to the poor skill in model 
monsoon, both monsoon circulation and  simulations of this intraseasonal phenomenon and the 
rainfall are projected to increase.  Future 
sensitivity to ocean warming patterns. 

El Niño‐ Natural modulations of the variance and 
Southern  spatial pattern of El Niño‐Southern 
Oscillation Oscillation are so large that confidence 
in any projected change for the 21st
projections of regional climate 
extremes in Southeast Asia are 
therefore of low confidence.
Reduced precipitation in Indonesia in Jul‐Oct due to pattern 
of Indian Ocean warming (RCP 4.5 or higher end scenarios) 
Low Confidence in any projected 
change for the 21 century.
st

century remains low. Confidence is low 
in changes in climate impacts for most of 
Asia.
 Source: IPCC, 2013
Sea Level Rise (IPCC 2013)

• Projected climate change (based on RCPs) in AR5 is similar

to AR4 in both patterns and magnitude, after accounting for
scenario differences.

• Projections of global mean sea level rise has increased in

confidence since the AR4 because of the improved physical
understanding of the components of sea level, the improved
agreement of process-based models with observations, and the
inclusion of ice-sheet dynamical changes.

• Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st
century. Under all RCP scenarios the rate of sea level rise will
very likely exceed that observed during 1971–2010 due to
increased ocean warming and increased loss of mass from
glaciers and ice sheets.
 Source: IPCC, 2013
Sea Level Rise (IPCC 2013)

Global mean sea level rise for 2081−2100 relative to 1986–2005 will
likely be in the following ranges:
• 0.26 to 0.55 m (RCP2.6)
• 0.32 to 0.63 m (RCP4.5)
• 0.33 to 0.63 m (RCP6.0)
• 0.45 to 0.82 m (RCP8.5) – medium confidence

Sea level rise will not be uniform. By the end of the 21st
century, it is very likely that sea level will rise in more than about
95% of the ocean area.

About 70% of the coastlines worldwide are projected to

experience sea level change within 20% of the global mean
sea level change.
 Assessing risk

Risk Level
Very Very
Low Med High

Present

Near Term (2030-2040)

2°C
Long Term
(2080-2100)
4°C

Risk Level with Risk Level with

High Adaptation Current Adaptation

Potential for
Additional Adaptation
to Reduce Risk
 Risk-Level
Very Very
Low Med High

Ecosystems Health Rate Present

Near Term (2030-2040)
Long Term 2°C
(2080-2100) 4°C

Risk Level with Potential for Risk Level with

High Adaptation Additional Current Adaptation
Adaptation to
Reduce Risk

Flood

Water
Wildfire Heat Flood Heat
Fisheries

Flood Heat Drought

Water

Water
Crops
Coral

Reefs

Food Livelihoods
Disease

Disease Coasts
Coasts Flood Coasts
 Food Security

The impacts of climate change will vary

by region with many regions to
experience a decline in productivity
(medium confidence)
Most models show that higher
temperatures will lead to lower rice
yields as a result of shorter growing
periods.
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 Food Security
 There are a number of regions that are
already near the heat stress limits for rice.
 However, CO2 fertilization may at least in
part offset yield losses in rice and other crops.
 Agricultural output has been noticeably
impacted by intensified floods and droughts
which caused almost 90% of rice production
losses in Cambodia during 1996-2001
(Brooks and Adger, 2003; MRC, 2009).
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 Food Security

Sea level rise will inundate low lying

areas and will especially affect rice
growing regions.
There are many potential adaptation
strategies being practiced and being
proposed but research studies on their
effectiveness are still few.

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 Water Resources

Water scarcity is expected to be a major

challenge for most of the region due to
increased water demand and lack of
good management (medium confidence)
Water resources are important in Asia
because of the massive population and
vary among regions and seasons.

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 Terrestrial Ecosystems
 Terrestrial systems in many parts of Asia have
responded to recent climate change with shifts
in the phenologies, growth rates, and the
distributions of plant species, and permafrost
degradation
 The projected changes in climate during the
21st Century will increase these impacts (high
confidence)

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 Terrestrial Ecosystems

 Boreal trees will likely invade treeless

arctic vegetation, while evergreen conifers
will likely invade deciduous larch forest.
 Large changes may also occur in arid and
semiarid areas, but uncertainties in
precipitation projections make these more
difficult to predict.

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 Terrestrial Ecosystems

 The impacts of projected climate

changes on the vegetation of the
lowland tropics are currently poorly
understood.

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 SPM 5: Many species cannot move fast enough
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IPCC WG2 SPM, 2014

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 Coastal and Marine

 Coastal and marine systems in Asia are

under increasing stress from both climatic
and non-climatic drivers (high
confidence)
 Vietnam and Cambodia are two of the
countries most vulnerable to climate
impacts on fisheries (Allison et al., 2009;
Halls, 2009).
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Coastal and Marine
 In the Asian Arctic, rising sea-levels are expected
to interact with projected changes in permafrost
and the length of the ice-free season to cause
increased rates of coastal erosion (high
agreement, medium evidence).
 Mangroves, salt marshes and seagrass beds may
decline unless they can move inland, while coastal
freshwater swamps and marshes will be vulnerable
to saltwater intrusion with rising sea-levels (include
Mekong delta).
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 Coastal and Marine

 Widespread damage to coral reefs

correlated with episodes of high sea-
surface temperature has been reported
in recent decades
 There is high confidence that damage to
reefs will increase during the 21st
century as a result of both warming and
ocean acidification.
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 Key risks and the potential for risk reduction
through mitigation and adaptation
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Key Risk Adaptation Time Frame Risk for Current

Issues and and high
adaptation
Prospects
Very Low Medium Very
Increase risk of Autonomous high
crop failure and adaptation of Present
lower crop farmers on-going
Near-term
production could in many parts of
lead to food Asia. 2°C
insecurity in Asia Long-term
(medium (2080-2100)
confidence) 4°C

Mekong River Commission IPCC WG 2 Asia, 2014 6 – 8 October 2014

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 Key risks and the potential for risk reduction
through mitigation and adaptation
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Key Risk Adaptation Issues Time Frame Risk for Current

and Prospects and high
adaptation
Very Low Medium Very
Water Limited capacity for high
shortage in water resource Present
arid areas adaptation; options
of Asia include developing Near-term
(medium water saving
confidence) technology, changing 2°C

drought-resilient crops, Long-term

building more water (2080-2100)
reservoir 4°C

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Siem Reap, Cambodia
 Key risks and the potential for risk reduction
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through mitigation and adaptation
Key Risk Adaptation Issues Time Frame Risk for Current
and Prospects and high
adaptation
Adaptation measures include Very Low Medium Very
Increased
extreme weather exposure high
flooding
reduction via effective land-use Present
leading to planning, selective relocation
widespread and structural measures;
damage to reduction in the vulnerability of Near-term
infrastructure lifeline infrastructure and
services (water, energy, waste
and management, food, biomass, 2°C
settlements in mobility, local ecosystems and Long-term
Asia (medium telecommunications) and
(2080-2100)
confidence) measures to assist vulnerable
sectors and households. 4°C

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 Key risks and the potential for risk reduction
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through mitigation and adaptation
Key Risk Adaptation Issues Time Frame Risk for Current
and Prospects and high
adaptation
Very Low Medium Very
Increased risk Disaster high
of flood preparedness Present
related deaths, including early-
injuries, warning systems and Near-term
infectious local coping
diseases and strategies.
mental 2°C

disorders Long-term
(medium (2080-2100)
confidence) 4°C

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 Key risks and the potential for risk reduction
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through mitigation and adaptation
Key Risk Adaptation Issues Time Frame Risk for Current
and Prospects and high
adaptation
Very Low Medium Very
Increased risk Heat health-warning high
of health- systems, urban Present
related planning to reduce
Near-term
mortality (high heat islands and
confidence) improvement of built
environment.
2°C

Long-term
(2080-2100)
4°C

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 Key risks and the potential for risk reduction
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through mitigation and adaptation
Key Risk Adaptation Issues Time Frame Risk for Current
and Prospects and high
adaptation
Very Low Medium Very
Increased risk Disaster high
of drought- preparedness Present
related water including early-
Near-term
and food warning systems and
shortage local coping
causing strategies.
2°C
malnutrition
Long-term
(high (2080-2100)
confidence) 4°C

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 Key risks and the potential for risk reduction
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through mitigation and adaptation
Key Risk Adaptation Issues Time Frame Risk for Current
and Prospects and high
adaptation
Very Low Medium Very
Increased risk Early-warning high
of water and systems, vector Present
vector-borne control programs,
diseases water management Near-term
(medium and sanitation
confidence) programs.
2°C

Long-term
(2080-2100)
4°C

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 Key risks and the potential for risk reduction
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through mitigation and adaptation
Key Risk Adaptation Issues Time Frame Risk for Current
and Prospects and high
adaptation
Very Low Medium Very
Exacerbated Insufficient emphasis high
poverty, and limited Present
inequalities understanding on
Near-term
and new urban poverty,
vulnerabilities interaction between
(high livelihoods, poverty
2°C
confidence) and climate change.
Long-term
(2080-2100)
4°C

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 Key risks and the potential for risk reduction
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through mitigation and adaptation
Key Risk Adaptation Issues Time Frame Risk for Current
and Prospects and high
adaptation
Very Low Medium Very
Coral reef The limited adaptation high
decline in Asia options include
Present
(high minimizing additional
stresses in marine Near-term
confidence)
protected areas sited
where sea surface
temperatures are 2°C
expected to change Long-term
least and reef resilience (2080-2100)
is expected to be 4°C
highest.

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 Key risks and the potential for risk reduction
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through mitigation and adaptation
Key Risk Adaptation Issues Time Frame Risk for Current
and Prospects and high
adaptation
Very Low Medium Very
Mountain top Adaptation options high
extinctions in are limited. Reducing Present
Asia (high non-climate impacts
confidence) and maximizing Near-term
habitat connectivity
will reduce risks to 2°C
some extent, while Long-term
assisted migration (2080-2100)
maybe practical for 4°C
some species.

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 Building Long-Term Resilience from Tropical
Cyclone Disasters
 Tropical cyclone frequency is likely to decrease or
remain unchanged over the 21st century, while
intensity (i.e. maximum wind speed and rainfall
rates) is likely to increase (AR5 WG1)
 Densely populated Asian deltas, including the
Mekong delta, are particularly vulnerable to
tropical cyclones due to their large population
density

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 Inland and storm surge flooding (cyclone Nargis)
in Irrawaddy Delta and to the east of Myanmar
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IPCC WG 2 Asia, 2014

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 Building Long-Term Resilience from
Tropical Cyclone Disasters

Preparation for extreme tropical cyclone

events through improved governance and
development to reduce their impacts
provides an avenue for building resilience
to longer-term changes associated with
climate change

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 Where do want to go?
38

IPCC WG2 SPM, 2014

 Possible Resilient Pathways for LMB

 Transboundary adaptation planning and

management with the following components:
a shared climate projection across the LMB
 improved coordination among adaptation
stakeholders and sharing of best practices across
countries;
 mainstreaming climate change adaptation into
national and sub-national development plans with
proper translation from national adaptation
strategies into local action plans; IPCC WG 2 Asia, 2014

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 Possible Resilient Pathways for LMB

 integration of transboundary policy

recommendations into national climate change
plans and policies;
 integration of adaptation strategies on a
landscape scale between ministries and
different levels of government within a country
(MRC, 2009; Lian and Bhullar, 2011; Lebel et
al., 2012; Kranz et al., 2010)

IPCC WG 2 Asia, 2014

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 Possible Resilient Pathways for LMB

 A multi-stakeholder Regional Adaptation

Action Network to scale up and improve
mainstreaming of adaptation through tangible
actions following the theory and successful
examples of the Global Action Networks
(GANs) (Waddell, 2005; Waddell and
Khagram, 2007; WCD, 2000; GAVI, 2011;
Schaffer and Ding, 2012) .
IPCC WG 2 Asia, 2014

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42

Thank you