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The rules and guidelines governing specific waves are described below, and along with the
specific waves to which they apply. You should note that rules are, in fact, requirements. If you
find a rule has been violated, even by a little, you should proceed to an alternate wave count.
On the other hand, Guidelines don't have to be true, but they are so frequently true
(somewhere along the order of 80 to 90% of the time) that they can be assumed to be true and
relied upon. 80% reliability is a huge statistical advantage in the stock market. It is these
guidelines that provide the real predictive power behind the Elliott Wave theory.
We break down the guidelines applicable to Elliott Wave Theory into two categories, major and
observational. The observational guidelines are covered in the sections for each of the
particular waves and wave structures.
Motive Waves -- Impulse Waves and Diagonals
Impulse Waves
RULES:
Wave 2 may never move beyond the origin of wave 1 (retrace more than 100% of
wave 1).
Wave 4 may never enter the price territory of wave 1.
Wave 3 may never be the shortest wave.
Impulse waves always subdivide into 5 waves.
Waves 1, 3, and 5 are always 5 waves.
GUIDELINES
Wave 3 always exceeds the pivot of wave 1
On rare occasion, wave 5 will not move beyond the pivot of wave 3. This is known
as Truncation
Normally, wave 3 will extend. Occasionally two waves will extend. Never will all
three extend.
When wave 3 extends, wave 5 tends to equal wave 1 in length.
When wave 5 extends it frequently reaches to the length of waves 1 plus 3.
Wave 1 is the least likely to extend.
Often the extended wave corresponds with the current parent wave. (eg. In a
higher degree wave 5, it is common for the lower degree wave 5 to extend)
Often the extended wave will match the number of the current parent wave
The center of Wave 3, normally has the steepest slope of the entire 5 wave
structure, except perhaps the "kickoff" of wave 1.
Wave 2 will develop into a zigzag, flat, or combination. Wave 2 cannot be a triangle
in its entirety.
Wave 4 will develop into a zigzag, flat, combination, or Triangle.
Wave 5 frequently ends near channel marked by line from 2-4 pivots, extended to
wave 3 pivot.
Leading Diagonals - 5 waves (3-3-3-3-3)
RULES
Will always subdivide into 5 waves.
Wave 2 never goes beyond the origin of Wave 1.
Wave 3 always goes beyond the wave 1 pivot.
Wave 4 always enters the price territory of Wave 1 but never ends beyond the
pivot of Wave 2.
Wave 5 will always end beyond the Wave 3 pivot - No truncation unless a
contracting diagonal.
Waves 2 and 4 will always be a zigzag. Waves 1, 3. and 5 can be zigzags, but may
appear as 5 wave structures.
A Leading Diagonal can only appear as wave 1 of an impulse or wave a of a zigzag -
the first wave of a sequence.
Leading Diagonal - Waves 2 and 4 of a leading diagonal, always subdivide into
zigzags. Waves 1,3, and 5 may or may not.
GUIDELINES
If Wave 1 is a leading diagonal, wave 3 is almost surely going to extend.
Ending Diagonals - 5 waves (3-3-3-3-3)
RULES:
Will always subdivide into 5 waves.
Wave 2 never goes beyond the origin of Wave 1.
Wave 3 always goes beyond the wave 1 pivot.
Wave 4 always enters the price territory of Wave 1 but never ends beyond the
pivot of Wave 2.
Wave 5 will always end beyond the Wave 3 pivot - No truncation unless a
contracting diagonal
Can only appear as wave 5 or wave c. - the final wave of a sequence
All 5 waves will always subdivide into zigzags.
GUIDELINES
If Wave 3 had not extended, Wave 5 almost surely not be an ending diagonal.
Most diagonals converge (trend lines 1_3 and 2_4)
Corrective Waves - Zigzags, Flats, Triangles, and Combinations
Zigzags - 3 waves (A5-B3-C5)
RULES:
A zigzag always subdivides into 3 waves
Wave A of a zigzag is 5 waves, it is either an impulse or (rarely) a leading diagonaal
Wave B of a zigzag never moves beyond the origin of Wave A.
Wave B of a zigzag always subdivides into a zigzag, flat, triangle, or combination of
the three.
Wave C of a zigzag always subdivides into an impulse or (rarely) an ending diagonal.
GUIDELINES
Wave B in a zigzag will normally retrace 50 to 79 percent of wave A.
Wave C of a zigzag almost always ends beyond the pivot of wave A, but it can
truncate.
Wave C of a zigzag is frequently equal in price distance with wave A.
Wave C often ends at a trend line drawn from the wave A origin to wave B and
duplicated to the wave A pivot. As with all corrections, they are normally
contained within these channel parallel lines.
Flats - 3 waves (A3-B3-C5)
RULES:
A flat always subdivides into 3 waves.
Wave A of a Flat is usually a zigzag.
Wave B of a Flat is usually a zigzag, but can be a triangle or combination.
Wave B of a flat must retrace at least 90 percent of wave A, or it is not a flat. It may
retrace up to 105% and still be considered a flat. Thereafter, it is considered an
Explanded Flat.
GUIDELINES
In an Expanded Flat, Wave B and normally between 105 and 138 percent of wave
A. Beyond that, it is less likelly to be a Flat at all.
Wave C of a Flat normally ends beyond the pivot of wave A, even in an Expanded
Flat.
Wave C of an Explanded Flat normally ends beyond the pivot of wave A as well, but
if it fails to do so it is called a "Running Flat."
Triangles - 5 waves (A3-B3-C3-D3-E3)
RULES:
A triangle is always subdivided into 5 waves, labeled A-E.
At least 4 waves of a triangle are 3 wave zigzags or a zigzag combination (a double
or triple zigzag).
Wave C of a triangle NEVER moves beyond the pivot of wave A. Wave D NEVER
moves beyond the pivot of wave B. Wave E NEVER moves beyond the pivot of wave
C.
A triangle never has more than one complex subwave. If it does, it is always a
zigzag combination or a triangle.
GUIDELINES
Wave B may exceed the origin of wave A, creating a "running triangle." This
happens about 40% of the time.
Waves B and D may at times pivot at about the same level. When this happens if
forms a "barrier triangle."
If a zigzag combination is going to form, it is usually it is wave C. It is longer lasting
and contains deeper percent retracements than the other waves. Wave D is the
2nd most likely. The wave X of a zigzag combination can be a triangle as well.
Wave C, D, or E can develop into an internal triangle. If this happens, it almost
always is wave E.
Most triangles are of the contracting variety, where each sucessive wave retraces
about .618 of the previous wave.
With expanding triangles, each wave expands the previous wave by approximately
105 to 125%
Combinations
Combinations are a series of two or possible 3 corrective structures that are separated by an X
wave. When the corrective structures are all zigzags, they are known as a double zigzag or a
triple zigzag. When they are not all zigzags, they are referred to as a double three or a triple
three and can be comprised of any corrective structures. A zigzag and a flat, a flat and a flat, a
flat and a triangle, etc.
RULES:
Each of the corrective structures in a combination adhere to the rules of that
structure.
GUIDELINES
X waves most typically are 3 wave zigzags, although can at times take the shape of
a 5 wave triangle.
Count the Waves
Counting all up and down pivots you have:
3 waves - Check for an ABC structure or a leg of a triangle or diagonal.
5 waves - Check for an impulse structure
7 waves - Check for a WXY structure.
9 waves - Check for an extended impulse
11 waves - Check for a WXYXZ structure
13 waves - Check for a double extended impulse wave (3 1-2's)
Wave Structure
A single "Wave" is composed of an 8 wave structure, which in turn is comprised of similar 8
wave structures. In the diagram below, note the 8 waves (1-5 and A,B.C) marked in gray. Inside
of those 8 waves are similar 8 wave structures marked
Determine the Elliott Wave Degree
What degree you are labeling your wave structure is not terribly important unless you are a
long term forcaster, but you need to be consistent in your labelling. if you also review and rely
on the charts of others, such as The Elliott Wave Lives On site, or Elliott Wave international, it is
very helpful to use wave degrees consistent with theirs.
We use the following method to identify degree. If the waves you are looking at are generally
visible (you can see a few of the swings, but not identify the internal waves) on the first time
chart listed, and clearly visible (you can identify most of the internal waves) on the second time
frame, we use the following wave degree:
Generally Visible Waves Clearly Visible Waves Probable Wave Degrees (smallest t
Weekly 2 Day Minor, Intermediate, Primary or
2 Day 3-4 Hour Minuette, Minute, Minor, Interm
Daily 1 Hour Subminuette, Minute, Minor, Inter
1 Hour 15 Minute Subminuette, Minute, Mino
30 Minute 10 Minute Micro, Subminuette, Minute, M
15 Minute 5 Minute Submicro, Micro, Subminuette, M
5 Minute 2 Minute Miniscule, Submicro, Micro, Subm
So as a general rule, we will look at a chart structure from a significant low or high on a daily
chart that encompasses all of the available data. If you are using a monthly chart, start labeling
the waves in the Cycle degree, If a weekly chart, start with the Primary degree, and daily as the
Minor or Intermediate degree.
Note that in the above impulse diagram, the smaller waves break down into yet
another identical wave structure, as opposed to 3 wave structures shown for the
diagonal. Simply put, the black waves 1 and 2 on the impulse chart will look like a
miniature version of the blue waves 1 and 2 on that chart with the same 5-3-5-3-5-
a-b-c internal structure. As is more frequently stated, impulse waves are fractal in
nature. If you would like to know more, take a look at the discussion of fractal
waves at StockCharts.com.
Confirmation of Wave 1
Confirmation always requires movement beyond prior pivots.
Confirmation of Wave 1 by Failed New High/Low
At times, the expected Wave one will quickly retest the wave 5 pivot. This is generally true on
shorter term intraday charts. This retest is actually wave 2 of a smaller degree, but can serve as
initial confirmation that Wave 1 is in progress. Using this as a basis for trading is beneficial in
three respects. First, the wave 5 pivot where you put your stop loss is substantially closer. If
your wave count is wrong, you can limit yourself to a much smaller loss. Second, if you buy
after crossing the wave B pivot (our second method of confirmation) you run the risk of a
significant draw down if the wave 2 does a deep retracement. It is much more likely there will
be angst, even if your wave count is right. And if it is wrong, you stand to lose a lot more
money. Finally, wave 1 may develop in such a way that you are comfortable taking profit at the
wave 1 pivot, but would not be be in a position to do so if you had entered the trade at the
wave B pivot. That is, it is much easier to take profit, sit out the wave 2, and reenter the trade
at a much better price.
Retracment
Trading
Do not get suckered. W2 must be a 3 wave structure, so don't prematurely start
the Wave 3 count.
Best conservative approach is to wait for W3.3 to clear W3.1, then enter.
Aggressive approach is to enter when W3.2 pivot is marked.
Once you are in a wave 3, do not attempt to trade it. Corrections are frequently
shallow and mal-formed. They can look like a single corrective wave. Time wise
they seem to be about right, Just hang on and ride them out unless you are on a
higher degree and can improve your position without much risk of being left
behind.
Prediction
When extended, can reach 200, 261.8, or 4.25 of W1.
Wave 4 interpretation
Wave 4 must not enter the price territory of wave 1 (except in a diagonal)
Can you have a very slight overlap without violating the rule? Yes. This is not really
an exception to the rule, but rather the manner in which the rule is defined. Elliott
developed the wave theory using a close only price chart, not HLC or candlestick
charts. Wicks did not come into consideration. Therefore, unless the price of wave
4 enters the body of the Wave 1 pivot, there has been no violation of the rule. This
mode of interpretation may further be warranted given that trading is highly
computerized these days and the enemy computers will clearly "gun" for the stops
people place immediately inside of the wave 1 because of this rule.
Overlap Alternatives
If W4 violates the rule that it can never overlap with W1, you must now re-label the
waves so as to adhere to the rules and guidelines. Most importantly, you must do
so in a manner that does not reflect any bias as to the direction you would prefer.
What is the next most probable formation. Generally, this translates into what is
the simplest formation.
As with all wave counts, when selecting your alternative count, avoid grasping at
the rare formations to form an answer. Yes, ending diagonals and triple Zigzags do
occur, but you shouldn't immediately jump to the conclusion that it must be a
complex or rare formations as your answer. You should always be forced into
selecting one of the rare formations because nothing simple works.
Alternative counts include:
A 1-2 / 1-2 formed and you are in the second W2 rather than a Wave 4.
It is an expanding ending diagonal in W5 - (W4 already terminated and
you are in W5.) These are pretty rare, so not likely the probable
answer.
W4 is breaking into a double (W-X-Y) or Triple (W-X-Y-X-Z) Zigzag. A
double and triple are pretty rare, therefore not the most probable
explanation.
It's not an impulse wave to begin with, but an A,B,C correction, and
you are in WB retracement.
Retracment
Standard Stochastics (14) will tend to pull down to the Bullish reversal level,
between 40 and 50.
MACD will tend to pull down to do a ZLR (Zero Line Reversal), although that is much
more common with Wave 4.
Trading
Can you trade Wave 4? Sure, but there are a lot of good reasons not to. Complex
corrections and triangles thrive in W4, so if you want to trade it you need to learn
to ignore your indicators and be on your toes and prepared to hold on for the ride.
Prediction
Notes
When W4 violates the overlap rule with W1, you must reject the current count. You
have 3 alternatives:
1. It is an Ending Diagonal, not an impulse wave. - If your wave 1,2,3 structure is
not comprised of 3 waves each, reject this.
2. What you thought was waves 1-3 is actually an X wave. You are not in a motive
wave at all but rather a complex correction. Your expected wave 4 is actually wave
A of the Y leg of the correction.
3. Instead of being 1,2,3,4 you are really in a 1-2/1-2 setup for a strong move.
Does the setup appear to be a 1-2/1-2? Check here.12_12_elliott_waves.html
, you should immediately consider Waves 1-3 to actually be Wave X in a complex
correction. The expected W4 is actually Wave A in the next corrective sequence
and there is more counter-trend correction to follow.
When W4 takes greater than 4x the time traveled in W2, it is far more likely that
what you are labeling as W4 is actually W2 of a larger structure. Don't blindly
accept a huge W4 when compared to a small W2.
Wave 5 Characteristics
Structure
W5 will always have 5 sub-waves
W5 is prone to truncation.
When truncated, W5 fails to push beyond the pivot of Wave 3. This
happens more frequently when W3 was particularly strong.
Truncated W5 are actually pretty rare. It is far more likely that you
either have mislabeled wave 3 (it is actually wave 5 and you are
currently in wave B of the correction) or that you have a complex W4
ongoing and you are in Wave X and have not yet reached W5.
Truncation typically appears as 3 waves then a sideways movement,
which can help differentiate if from a complex correction.
When wave 5 is extended, expect a double retracement. First is over the extended
portion, down to around W4 of the extended wave then the second retracement
over the rest of the previous wave, down to the primary W4.
Indicator Divergence -- Wave 5 almost always presents with indicator divergence.
One costly error is to close a trade because of indicator divergence when it is not
confirmed by price. You must let price, and perhaps an MA cross over signify when
the move is done.
Prediction
There are numerous methods to project the length of the 5th wave. Using
clustering of them all provides some much needed insight into the probabilities.:
Wave 5 = Wave 1
Wave 5 = .618 or 1.618 of Wave 1 + Wave 3
Wave 5 = Wave 1 (100%)
Wave 5 = 1.382 or 2.00 of the Wave 4 move
Wave 5 = 1.382 or 1.618 of the swing prior to W1.
When truncation occurs it signifies that the market is ready to move in the opposite
direction, and early. There is a sharp, swift, move in the opposite direction. Almost
a straight line. As one might expected, truncation usually predicts a much longer
Wave A in the correction.
When wave 5 is extended, the most common multiple for its length is 1.618 times
the length of wave 1 through wave 3.
Wave A Characteristics
Structure
Wave A is either a 3 wave structure or a 5 wave structure. Whichever it turns out
to be will determine the course of the remainder of the corrective waves B and C.
A 3 wave structure denotes the correction will be a Flat or Expanded Flat. It could
also be wwave A of a triangle, but that is only applicable to wave 4 corrections.
A 5 wave structure denotes a Zigzag correction or something more complex.
Remember the principle of Alternation. If you are in a wave 4 correction, look to
the alternate of the correction type in wave 2. (wave 4 typically a flat if wave 2 was
a zigzag.)
A sharp wave A is typically associated with a zigzag. A shallow sloped WA, a Flat.
Pay attention the the previous impulse waves. If the W5 was well extended, then
there is a probability that the ABC correction in its entirety is going to be deeper
than expected, or a double correction is expected.
Wave A may be a leading diagonal, so 3 wave internals and wave overlap can occur.
Trading
Trading Wave A can be challenging because you aren't ever quite sure when it has
started and when it has ended. At the beginning of WA, you are normally still open
to the possibility that the prior W5 impulse will push to a new extreme in an
extended W5. At the end of three waves in WA you may be expecting 2 more
waves, but the wave ends in 3 and reverses to create a flat. That all having been
mentioned, if you are trading the total correction you can certainly get it on at the
failed new extereme of WA.(2 or B) and ride it out.
IF the 3rd wave of A ends in the .382 retracement of wave 5, there is a good chance
that you are dealing with a Flat correction. Similarly, if Wave AC is extended, it is far
more likely to be a zigzag forming.
Wave B Characteristics
Structure
Wave B is always a 3 wave structure.
Retracment
In order, the most common retracements are:
.382 of WA
.618 of WA
.50 of WA
in a Zigzag, If Wave B reaches beyond .768, you have likely already finished the ABC
correction and are now in your next impulse wave.
Wave C Characteristics
Structure
As a general rule, in Zigzags Wave C will be shallow and Wave A will be sharp. In
flats, WA will be shallow and WC will be sharp.
The distance WC travels means something. The shorter it is the greater the
likelihood the reversal will be sharp and significant. The longer it is, the more likely
the reversal will be slower.
Retracement
The most common retracements, in order are
100% of WA (EQUALITY)
1.618 of WA
.618 of WA
Prediction
When Wave C fails to reach equality with WA, such as with only a .618
retracement, you can generally interpret that as being contrary pressure in the
market and expect a strong move in the other direction in the not too distant
future. The converse is NOT true, if extended beyond 100%, there it can be
interpreted as being a more volatile market. It too results in a strong move in the
opposite direction.
The short (.618) retracement is more reliable for a strong counter-move for the
next 1-2
Notes
If WC >162% of WA, then likely the wave count is wrong. More likely an impulsive
W3. Check WA structure for 5 waves.
Trading
Once you have determined that an extension is occurring, there is only one way to
trade it, which is the direction of the wave. Enter the trade and ride it out. You
won't be sorry. The following applies to all extensions, but is based on
observations of a third wave of a third wave. It is practically impossible to trade
the corrections of an extension. They don't last long, they frquently don't retrace
near what you are expecting (it is very hard to identify the wave degree in the
extensions) and, at times, the seem to be shortened versions of the typical A, B, C
waves. What you think is wave A is often times the entire retracement, leaving you
looking like an idiot when the trend resumes and you are still waiting for another
swing. When the extended wave is over, you will know it and will still show more
profit than if you tried to trade the corrections. Just don't do it!
Perhaps it is not apparent, but there are a couple of key areas where you should
pay attention to the wave structure. When a short correction after 5 takes back off
and clears the wave 5 you know the wave count will now go to 9. You can stay in
the trade until then. By the same analysis, when a short correction after 9 takes
back off and clears the wave 9 pivot you now know you are going to 13. If you have
been able to mark the 1-2,1-2 sequence(s) at the beginning of the chart, this gives
confirmation to that labeling.
Additionally if you happen to note an acceleration gap, use the measuring gap rules
to at least approximate the end of the wave.
Guidelines to exclude a 1-2 1-2 count
The second Wave 1 MUST have overlapped the first Wave 1 or it should be treated as a B
wave in an ongoing wave 2 correction. Potentially it is an internal wave 1-2, but not the
start of an extension. - To clarify, an extension suggests a massive elongation of the
impulse pattern. All impulse waves 1,3, and 5 have internal 5 wave structures as well.
The fact that you can see the internal 1-2 at times does not mean the larger wave will
extend. When the second wave 1 does not exceed the first, the probabilities are that the
wave is not going to extend.
Not every double pair of pivots is a 1-2/1-2, however. Here are some important considerations
to keep you on track. The 2nd wave 1 must advance beyond the pivot of the previous wave 1.
The Second Wave 2 should not overlap the trend line from the first wave 2
The 2nd wave 2 pivot must not move beyond the previous wave 2 pivot. It either of these is not
true, then you are likely still seeing the first wave 2 developing or a B wave triangle working in
the 1st Wave 2.
Prediction
The fact that wave 3 most normally extends, and in order to have that extension
you must have a second 1-2 structure (not necessarily visible on the same time
frame), it gives you an opportunity to enter the trade at the 2nd 1-2. That is, once
the price has passed the first wave 1 pivot you can look to enter the trade at the
2nd wave 2 pivot.
The more 1-2/1-2 waves you have the more choppy "unwinding" will need to be
done in the form of multiple wave 4s and 5s as final waves to close up the 1-2/1-2
structures.
As the chart below shows, beginning in February of 2016, the DJI Index began a
strong impulse wave higher. We noted 3 sets of concurrent 1-2 waves leading into
the circle IV correction (bright green), with a great deal of complexity still to come
in the remaining waves.
Zigzag
Structure and characteristics
5-3-5 structure
Common alternation with Zigzags.
Wave A is most commonly steeper than Wave C in a Zigzag. If you see a steep start
to Wave A, think Zigzag.
Wave A and C will alternate between being sudden and sharp, without defining
waves, and well defined. If wave A is a "screamer" you can expect wave C to be
well defined and shallow, and visa versa.
Because of the 5-3-5 wave structure of a Zigzag you will often be placed in a
situation of having to differentiate a Zigzag from a 1,2,3 wave count. Getting it
wrong has some serious repercussions.
The chart below raises the question of whether an impulse wave or a corrective
wave is developing.
While no single guideline you can apply will predict the answer, when using multiple guidelines
it is possible to determine which is more probable.
Flats
Structure
3-3-5 internal structure
Alternation also is common in the 3 waves of Waves A and B in the flat. WA and
WB alternate between a Zigzag and Flat.
The most common structure is that WA and WC demonstrate equality.
Regular Flats -- The typical structure of a regular flat is that Waves A, B, and C are
close to equal lengths. Wave C is 5 waves and normally will be steeper than wave
A.
Expanded Flats -- Wave B will result in a new price extreme beyond the origin of
WA. However, just because the structure is tight with previous W5 high do
assume that the following W5 will be shallow.
Running Flats -- Wave C does not travel the full expected extent, but stops short
and reverses strongly.
In a Flat, WA is expected to be steeper than WC.
Retracement
Regular Flat - Wave B will retrace 90% to 105% of WA. If greater than 100, it is an
Expanded Flat. Wave C will travel about the same distance as WA. If you see 5
waves and a reversal before 90% don't try to force the Flat interpretation, it is likely
wrong. Wave C can be an Ending Diagonal.
Expanded Flat - Wave B will retrace up to 1.382 of WA. It can be shorter or longer,
but beyond 1.5 favors a different wave interpretation. Wave C of an explanded flat
typically extends to 1.382 of WA.
Running Flat - Wave C, while still consisting of 5 waves is cut short (think
truncation) and reverses direction causing a very strong move in the opposite
direction.
Prediction
Flats generally show that the market continues to maintain a bullish or bearish
attitude to the point that they are not interested in strongly correcting the trend.
After the correction you can expect a decent move.
Note that when W2 is an expanded flat, you can pretty well count on W3 to
achieve a 2.618 multiple of W1. Expect bigger moves after flats.
Triangles (3-3-3-3-3)
Structure
Triangles only form in Waves 4, B, and X, the waves prior to the terminating wave
of the structure.
There are five Waves (A-E) and each wave will normally subdivide into a 3 wave
structure such as a Zagzag.
A running triangle is said to have formed when the B wave exceeds the origin of
WA. (think expanded flat.)
There are three types of triangles. The most common are the contracting,
symmetrical kind. Barrier triangles form where one side resembles a horizontal
line, and expanding triangles, which are very rare.
Wave C, or occasionally wave D, will normally become complex and form a double
(WXY) or triple Zigzag (WXYXZ) formation. X can be a triangle itself.
Infrequently, Wave E can develop into a smaller triangle, making a total wave count
of 9 waves, labeled A-E, with the interior triangle labeled a-e of the next lesser
degree. The ending pivot is E e.
Specifics
In a wave 2, a triangle may only form in wave B of the retracement. It can not comprise the
entire wave 2. However, in wave 4, a triangle may form as the entire wave 4 structure or as
wave B in the wave structure. These will resolve in opposite directions, so you need to be right
on where the triangle is located.
Retracement
Triangles rarely follow retracement rules, but these are the stated retracements
Contracting and Symmetrical Triangles
In a triangle, at least two waves frequently have a .618 relationship with their prior
wave.
With a running triangle you can expect Wave B to reach 1.382 of Wave A, before
the remainder of the triangle falls into suit with .786 retracements. The
relationships are somewhat more expanded than regular triangle relationships.
Expanding Triangles
As a general rules, these triangles conform to 1.618 relationships between the
waves.
Characteristics of Complex Corrections (Combinations)
Structure
Complex corrections are multiple ABC corrections which are joined by a three-wave
price move identified as wave X. See When to declare an X wave.l
Each of the waves in a complex correction adhere to the basic Elliott structures
identified for corrections. That is, Zigzags, Flats, or Triangles.
They can occur as the entire correction, being the major ABC waves and done, but
they can also occur as a single wave B in the ABC correction. This means you could
have a normal A, a double or triple as a wave B, and a normal C wave.
A "Double" consists of two ABC corrections joined by the X-wave. These are
denoted as A–B–C–X–A–B–C or abbreviated as simply W–X–Y. A double presents
itself as a 7 wave corrective structure.
A "Triple" is three ABC corrections joined by an X wave between the corrections.
These are denoted as A–B–C–X–A–B–C-X-A-B-C or abbreviated as W–X–Y-X-Z. A
triple presents itself as a 11 wave corrective structure.
Complex corrections are still a part of a larger corrective wave structure and that
structure still must adhere to the Wave Rules. As a W4, the complex correction
must still not overlap W1. However, this does not mean the expected retracement
will be the same as a common W4 pattern, like a Zigzag or Flat.
As a general rule, when you see a 3 wave WA, but Wave B does not retrace to near
the origin of wave A, you can't call it a flat. But with only 3 waves in A, you can't
call it a zigzag either. Therefore, the appropriate label is a WXY.
A triangle may still form as WB in one or more of the legs of a complex correction.
Retracement
Even though the entire wave of a complex correction (eg. Wave 4) must adhere to
basic Elliott rules, there is no predictable retracement. You must simply wait for the
wave to complete to signify the end of the correction.
Trading
Don't trade them on purpose. If you find yourself in one, find an appropriate exit
point or be prepared to wait out the correction and return to the trend.
Prediction
They provide no known predictive value, although we can predict you will be
miserable if you are holding through one of them.
Notes
A complex correction will first become obvious when your expected movement
into the next wave of a correction fails to breakout and instead pivots and
reverses. You can then mark the 3 wave structure as Wave X and expect another
one or two A,B,C corrections to follow.
Ending Diagonals
Structure (3-3-3-3-3)
A terminating wave pattern. May only form as Wave 5 or as Wave C in a Flat or
Zigzag (nothing else).
It is a Motive Wave, therefore shares the same general characteristics as an
impulse wave, EXCEPT that W4 will always cross into the W1 territory and that all 5
waves of the ending diagonal will divide into 3 wave substructures (3-3-3-3-3)
95% of the time they are the contracting variety and demonstrate zigzags, or
double or triple zigzags, but they are always comprised of the 3 wave structure.
An ending diagonal appears at the termination point of larger movements, most
often as wave 5. Rarely as wave C.
Frequently you will see a through-over the trend line in wave 5. You can almost
expect to see it. Very normal attempt to shake out weak hands before moving in
the opposite direction.
The retracements always start with a swift drop, commonly down to the wave 2
low of the diagonal, and ultimately ending about even with the origin of the
pattern.
Are generally thought to occur when the preceding waves have gone "too far, too
fast."
Retracement within the diagonal
W2 retraces to the range- .618 to .812 of W1
W4 retraces to the range .382 to .5 of W3
W5 frequently .618 of W3
Trading
In the diagram below, you will see three possible entry points (A-C) where the pattern has been
confirmed and which can be used as the location for a trade. The placement of the stop loss
reflects the Elliott Wave rule that wave 2 can never retace more than the origin of wave 1, so if
the labeling is correct and W5 is in fact finished, the trade will be profitable. Each entry point,
point has it benefits and drawbacks. is
Using point A, the break of the trend line has the potential of yielding greater
ultimate profit. It also has a better chance of never resulting in a drawdown during
the corrective wave 2 that is to follow. The risk to using point A is that Wave 5 may
not be finished. It may cross the trend line only to pull back through it to a new
high.
Using point B is more conservative. Once the wave 4 pivot is passed, Wave 5 is
clearly finished, but by waiting until then you have reduced the ultimate profit on
the trade and run the risk of a bigger drawdown, especially if W2 retraces up to
near the origin of Wave 1, near the stop loss line. Using point C is even more
conservative and has an even bigger reduction in profits and possible drawdown.
From the author's perspective, you may be better off taking the unconfirmed trade
right after the wave 5 pivot. While wave 5 may not yet be done, your potential loss
is very limited because you have a tight stop loss. Other considerations would be to
raise your stop loss up to the point where, should wave 5 reach it, wave 3 would be
the shortest wave. Contracting diagonals provide the unique opportunity to use
this technique.
Leading Diagonals
Structure (3-3-3-3-3) OR (5-3-5-3-5)
In real-time charting, you should NEVER label a developing wave as a leading diagonal. These
are so rare you should not even consider them as an option. You should label leading diagonals
as such only on past charts when there is no other wave count that fits.
A beginning wave pattern. May only form as Wave 1 or as Wave A of a Zigzag. .
Elliott Wave International notes that the vast majority of leading diagonals divide
into 3 wave substructures (3-3-3-3-3), but also note that a few have been found
with 5-3-5-3-5 structure, yet Wave 4 will still enter the price territory of Wave 1 -
which is what makes it a diagonal.
It would also be safe to say that, since W4 can overlap W1 in a leading diagonal,
there may be situations where a 1-2 1-2 count isn't working out because it was a
mislabeled leading diagonal rather than a 1-2 1-2. Best to keep this in mind in
when exploring alternate wave counts when a 1-2, 1-2 count isn't working out.
As with ending diagonals, this wave develops more as a diagonal wave than a
typical fast moving impulse wave.
It is a Motive Wave, therefore shares some of the same characteristics as an
impulse wave. W2 may never cross the origin of W1 and W3 may never be the
shortest wave. However, unlike impulse waves, W4 will (almost) always cross into
the W1 territory. This "almost" leaves open the possibility that Wave 1 could be a
3-3-3-3-3 structure without wave 4 overlapping wave one. Curious indeed.
Frequently you will see a throw-over the trend line in wave 5. You can almost
expect to see it. Very normal attempt to shake out weak hands before moving in
the opposite direction.
Notes:
Diagonals are usually followed by a quick thrust in the direction of the next wave
that completely eclipses the diagonal wave. That normally completes takes only
1/2 to 1/3 of the time it took for the pattern to form.
Wave Identification
Multiple Wave Structures
3 Waves - Correction
5 Waves - Impulse, Diagonal or, if lateral orientation, wave 4 corrective Triangle
7 Waves - Double Correction
9 Waves - Single Extended Impulse, or if lateral orientation, a double triangle.
11 Waves - Triple Correction
13 Waves - Double Extended Impulse
Multiple Wave Structures
5 then 3 ImCorrection
Channeling and Elliott Waves
Channeling an impulse wave can frequently help predict the approximate ending locations of
various waves.
In our practice, when we look at a daily chart and see the smallest impulsive waves in which the
swings (you can count waves 1,2,3,4,and 5 but not necessarily the internal structure of those
waves) can be recognized, we start with a Minutte (Pink, Parenthesis, italic) degree label. So,
the smallest clearly identifiable swings (but not necessarily the internal structure) are Minutte
degree and graduate up and down from there with the time frame being viewed.
Correction Times
Use the appropriate time frame to analyze the correction. If you are trying to track an ongoing
Intermediate degree correction on a 15 minute time frame you will be confused, exhausted,
and sadly disappointed. The difficulty is that on smaller time frames you will be tempted to
label the internals of the correction in the incorrect degree. Use the proper time frames to note
the swings, then look to the smaller time frames to establish the internals.
Do not rush the count. You must make sure the entire correction exhibits the "look and feel"
that is expected on the proper time frame for the degree you are working with.
Did it retrace far enough? Did it take an appropriate amount of time to retrace? A W4 Flat
should take at least twice as long as W2 zigzag, and perhaps up to 3-4 times as long. Beyond
that, your wave count is suspect or you should look to a complex correction analysis. Was the
prior impulse wave particularly long or a 5 of 5? If so, a complex correction is more likely.
Note that the charts below are for the wave 2 and wave 4 corrections for the given degree and
not the ABC corrections following wave 5 of that degree. For the wave 5 ABC corrections, you
should look to the analysis of W2 and W4 at one higher degree.
Subminuette (Blue small case italic waves ii and iv)
Micro circle red a, b, c
Chart View Time View Indicators on 5 minute chart
Generally visible on: 3 general swings visible on 15 min chart
Clearly visible on: 5 minute shows distinct waves
~1 hour (Can be 2 to 3 times longer in indecisive areas - such as ending di
Zigzag time to complete: tops.)
~ 3-4 hours (Can be 2 to 3 times longer in indecisive areas - such as endin
Flat time to complete: tops.)
Hold the position and do not trade the correction. Ride it out. As a whole
may be tradable on short term charts, but it is hard to catch the swings a
Are they tradable: predictable meaningful profit from them. Better to just wait for the trend
Minuette (Pink, parentheses small case Italic waves II and Iv)
Chart View Time 15 or 30 minute chart
Generally visible on: 3 general swings visible on hourly chart
Clearly visible on: 15 to 30 minute charts shows distinct waves
Zigzag time to complete: ~ 13 hours - about 2 days
Flat time to complete: ~ 20 hours - about 3-4 days
Are they tradable: Yes.
Minute (Green, circle small case italic waves ii and iv )
Chart View Time Hourly Chart
Generally visible on: 3 general swings visible on 2 hour chart
Clearly visible on: 1 hour chart
Zigzag time to complete: ~ 12 to 24 hours (2-5 days)
Flat time to complete: ~ 24 to 48 hours (4 to 8 days)
Are they tradable: Clearly tradable
Minor (Red, waves 2 and 4)
Chart View
Time 3-4 Hour Chart
Generally
visible on: 3 swings on the daily chart
Clearly visible
on: 3 hour chart shows distinct waves
Zigzag time to
complete: Normally 7-12 days (1-2 weeks) Longest we've seen is 43 days
Flat time to Normally 14 -24 days (2-4 weeks)
complete:
Absolutely. These can be large corrections (DJ 500 pts, SP100 to 200).
ZIGZAGS are pretty clear and can be very profitable to trade.
FLATS: (Wave 4) can be strong in the countertrend to the point you may question whether you
and are really in a larger ABC correction. Frequently a visible head and shoulders formation will f
the return to the larger trend and the beginning of (Wave 5).
**** Complex waves and ending fifth wave diagonals are often seen as the final culminating wav
C) in this kind of larger degree corrective action.
DO NOT try to analyze a minor degree Flat on the 15 minute or even 30 minute time frame. You
mistakes in the count and set yourself up for a loss. The 3 hour charts, while not showing the me
structure, will show you all you need to know to make the wave count and profit from the trade.
Don’t Jump the gun on declaring C to be over on the 1st pivot beyond A, as it frequently will mov
extreme.
Borrowing from other TA, look for Wave 4 corrections to blow through the 20 and 50 SMA and te
200 SMA despite what the wave theory may tell you about where they should end. The importa
Trading:
remember on a W4 correction is to be patient and wait for confirmation that it is over.
Intermediate (Blue, parentheses wave 2 and 4)
Chart View Time Daily Charts
Generally visible on: Monthly Charts
Elliott Wave Theory alone is really quite useful in understanding what the market is doing and where it is
headed. But using other technical analysis techniques can provide some helpful confirmation to the
analysis. We'll be looking at two sets of indicators. The first set is the default settings for RSI,
Stochastics, and MACD. (Note the RSI has lines at 70, 60, 40 and 30) As a general rule, if you shorten the
time period of these indicators you are likely to see more prominent peaks and valleys. You are
encouraged to try other settings for these common indicators and other indicators to see what works
best for you. The second chart shows our standard indicators, which can include a modified Ergotic
indicator and a modified Fisher Transform indicator. Both of these have momentum bands surrounding
them, which is another lesson.
On both sets, pay attention to where the peaks and valleys occur with respect to the levels (above or
below the Overbought/Oversold, the Zero Line, and the 60/40 reversal zones on the RSI. Being above or
below these areas definitive, but they are helpful in the analysis. What is more important is the
relationship between the peaks and troughs. (Lower highs)
Match the timeframe to the degree you are observing
It is not going to do you much good to try to analyze a minor degree wave on a 5 minute chart. You just
won't get much use out of the indicator. Same is true using a daily chart to analyze a Micro degree
wave. You should use the chart on which you are analyzing the wave degree in question. From there
you can raise or lower the time frame a bit in order to determine what time frame is working best for
that degree of wave. It is particularly important to note that when you are analyzing one degree of
waves, you are in actuality reviewing the wave structure of one lower degree (or two or more lower
degrees if you are analyzing an extension). Is the time frame you selected providing information about
these lower degree waves? If so, you are good to go.
Indicator Signatures
Indicators and oscillators have pretty common signatures which can be helpful to correctly identifying
your wave count. Contrary to what you might expect, Indicators do not register their highs and lows at
wave 5. The charts below willl demonstrate that the indictor highs and lows are almost always often
registered at the end of wave 3s and usually wave 3 of the preceding smaller degree or, in the case of an
extended wave, at the end of wave 3 of 2 smaller degrees.
Bull Market Indicator Signatures During Extended Impulse Waves
Because the extension of an impulse wave raises multiple small degrees of impulse waves into the time
frame you are examining, it is necessary to draw a distinction between what indicator signatures will
look like during an extended impulse wave as opposed to a regular impulse wave.
Extended Wave 3 of Larger Degree Wave 1
Below are two charts showing the indicator signatures during an extended wave 1.
Below are the common TA indicators at their default settings from most charting programs. Note the
divergence between the higher prices as the extended wave progresses and the lower high peaks on the
indicators.
The chart below shows our standard indicators.
Extended Wave 3 of Larger Degree Wave 3
Note for the charts below that we are still measuring a pink Minuette wave, this time wave 3. But
because of the extended nature of the wave we have had to raise the chart time by a factor of 8, from
15 minutes to 2 hours in order to filter out the noise from the smaller waves in the extension.
Some things to note in the charts below. First, the signatures for the extended wave 3 are pretty much
the same as the extended wave 1. The lesser degree wave (iii) creates the highest peak, followed by the
end of wave (iii) at a lower peak. To complete the wave, the 5th wave (V) peaks even lower than the
prior wave 3 of the same degree.
Indicator Signatures during Impulse Waves
Indicator Signatures during Corrective Waves
Other patterns of interest - SOAP