SOAL 1

∑Y = n.a + b. ∑X
∑XY = a. ∑X + b. ∑X 2

Dengan demikian rumus yang digunakan dalam perhitungan menurut trend least square sebagai b

Y’= a+bX
a = ∑Y / n
b = ∑XY / ∑X 2
t trend least square sebagai berikut :
 dari data dibualah ramalan penjualan tahun 2021 dengan menggunakan metode least square

n penjualan (Y) nilai ( X) X.Y X2

2016 98 -2 -196 4
2017 113 -1 -113 1
2018 126 0 0 0
2019 140 1 140 1
2020 153 2 306 4
5 630 0 137 10

Y’ = a + b X
a = ∑Y / n a = 630 / 5 = 126
b = ∑XY / ∑X 2 b=137/10= 13.7

jadi persamaan Y= 126 + 13.7 X

Y'21= 126 + 13.7X=
Y'21= 126 + 13.7(5)= 68.5

MALANG 4/6 X 68.5 = 46

SURABAYA 2/6 X 68.5 = 23
69
metode least square
MALANG
susu vanila 45 % X 46 = 21
susu coklat 30 % X 46 = 14
susu strawberry 25 % X 46 = 11
JUMLAH 46
SURABAYA
susu vanila 45 % X 23 = 10
susu coklat 30 % X 23 = 7
susu strawberry 25 % X 23 = 6
JUMLAH 23
TOTAL 69

MALANG
TRIWULAN I
susu vanila 22.69 x 21 = 476 x 1750 = 833,000.00
susu coklat 22.69 x 14 = 318 x 2200 = 699,600.00
susu strawberry 22.69 x 11 = 250 x 2000 = 500,000.00
jumlah 2,032,600.00

susu strawberry
MALANG
TRIWULAN II
susu vanila 23.8 x 21 = 500 x 1750 = 875,000.00
susu coklat 23.8 x 14 = 227 x 2250 = 510,750.00
susu strawberry 23.8 x 11 = 159 x 2700 = 429,300.00
jumlah 1,815,050.00

TRIWULAN III
susu vanila 25 x 21 = 525 X 1750 = 918,750.00
susu coklat 25 x 14 = 238 x 2250 = 535,500.00
susu strawberry 25 x 11 = 167 x 2700 = 450,900.00
jumlah 1,905,150.00

TRIWULAN IV
susu vanila 28.8 x 21 = 605 x 1750 = 1,058,750.00
susu coklat 28.8 x 14 = 250 x 2250 = 562,500.00
susu strawberry 28.8 x 11 = 182 x 2700 = 491,400.00
jumlah 2,112,650.00
total triwulan I + II + III + IV = 7,865,450.00
 SURABAYA
SURABAYA TRIWULAN I
susu vanila 22.69 x 10 = 227 x 2250 = 510,750.00
susu coklat 22.69 x 7 = 159 x 2700 = 429,300.00
susu strawberry 22.69 x 6 = 136 x 2500 = 340,000.00
jumlah 1,280,050.00

TRIWULAN II
susu vanila 23.8 x 10 = 238 x 2250 = 535,500.00
susu coklat 23.8 x 7 = 167 x 2700 = 450,900.00
susu strawberry 23.8 x 6 = 143 x 2500 = 357,500.00
jumlah 1,343,900.00

TRIWULAN III
susu vanila 25 x 10 = 250 x 2250 = 562,500.00
susu coklat 26 x 7 = 182 x 2700 = 491,400.00
susu strawberry 27 x 6 = 162 x 2500 = 405,000.00
jumlah 1,458,900.00

TRIWULAN IV
susu vanila 28.8 x 10 = 288 x 2250 = 648,000.00
susu coklat 28.8 x 7 = 202 x 2700 = 545,400.00
susu strawberry 28.8 x 6= 173 x 2500 = 432,500.00
jumlah 1,625,900.00
total triwulan I + II + III + IV = 5,708,750.00
 perusahaan susu murni
anggaran penjualan
Tiap triwulan pada tahun 2021
Daerah triwulan
Penjualan dan I II III
Jenis Susu kds rp kds rp kds
Malang
susu vanila 476 833,000.00 500 875,000.00 525
susu coklat 318 699,600.00 227 510,750.00 238
susu strawberry 250 500,000.00 159 429,300.00 167
SUBTOTAL 1044 2,032,600.00 886 1,815,050.00 930
SURABAYA
susu vanila 227 510,750.00 238 535,500.00 250
susu coklat 159 429,300.00 167 450,900.00 182
susu strawberry 136 340,000.00 143 357,500.00 162
SUBTOTAL 522 1,280,050.00 548 1,343,900.00 594
TOTAL 1566 3,312,650.00 1434 3,158,950.00 1524
wulan
III IV
rp kds rp

918,750.00 605 1,058,750.00

535,500.00 250 562,500.00
450,900.00 182 491,400.00
1,905,150.00 1037 2,112,650.00

562,500.00 288 648,000.00

491,400.00 202 545,400.00
405,000.00 173 432,500.00
1,458,900.00 663 1,625,900.00
3,364,050.00 1700 3,738,550.00
soal 2

PRODUK
Tahun Y X XY X2
2015 55,000 0 - 0
2016 60,000 1 60,000 1
2017 67,000 2 134,000 4
2018 75,000 3 225,000 9
2019 73,000 4 292,000 16
2020 70,000 5 350,000 25
2021 72,000 6 432,000 36
472,000 21 1,493,000 91

Y’ = a + b X
∑Y = n.a + b. ∑X
∑XY = a. ∑X + b. ∑X 1

472000 = 7.a + b.21 x2 944,000.00 21a + 42b

1493000 = 21.a +b.91 x1 1,493,000.00 21a + 91b
(549,000.00) (49 b)
b= 11,204.08

472,000 a= 7.a + b.20

472,000 a= 7.a + 11,204.08 x 20
a= 33,816.33
Y=a+Bx Y2022=33,816.33 +11,204.08(7) = 112,244.89
Y2022=33,816.33 +11,204.08(7) = 112,244.90
Y2022=33,816.33 +11,204.08(7) = 112,244.91
TRIWULAN MEDAN MALUKU PAPUA
I
II
III
IV

Perbandingan 3:2:1
tahun 2022
3 / 6 112,244.89 56,122.45
2 / 6 112,244.89 37,414.96
1 / 6 112,244.89 18,707.48
jumlah 112,244.89
tahun 2023
3 / 6 123,448.97 61,724.49
2 / 6 123,448.97 41,149.66
1 / 6 123,448.97 20,574.83
jumlah 123,448.97
tahun 2024
3 / 6 134,653.05 67,326.53
2 / 6 134,653.05 44,884.35
1 / 6 134,653.05 22,442.18
jumlah 134,653.05
tahun 2022

3 / 6 112,244.89 56,122.45
2 / 6 112,244.89 37,414.96
1 / 6 112,244.89 18,707.48
jumlah 112,244.89

Triwulan MEDAN MALUKU PAPUA

Triwulan I 11,224.49 11,224.49 3,741.50
Triwulan II 16,836.73 7,482.99 3,741.50
Triwulan III 16,836.73 7,482.99 4,676.87
Triwulan IV 11,224.49 11,224.49 4,676.87

tahun 2023
3 / 6 123,448.97 61,724.49
2 / 6 123,448.97 41,149.66
1 / 6 123,448.97 20,574.83
jumlah 123,448.97

Triwulan MEDAN MALUKU PAPUA

Triwulan I 12,344.90 12,344.90 4,114.97
Triwulan II 18,517.35 8,229.93 4,114.97
Triwulan III 18,517.35 8,229.93 5,143.71
Triwulan IV 12,344.90 12,344.90 5,143.71

tahun 2024
3 / 6 134,653.05 67,326.53
2 / 6 134,653.05 44,884.35
1 / 6 134,653.05 22,442.18
jumlah 134,653.05

Triwulan MEDAN MALUKU PAPUA

Triwulan I 13,465.31 13,465.31 4,488.44
Triwulan II 20,197.96 8,976.87 4,488.44
Triwulan III 20,197.96 8,976.87 5,610.54
Triwulan IV 13,465.31 13,465.31 5,610.54
 Tahun Harga
2015 1550
2016 1650 harga rata-rata
2017 1700 12500 / 7 1786
2018 1725
2019 1775 kenaikan harga 15 %
2020 1850 harga 2022,2023,2024 = 115 % x 1786
2021 2250 harga = 2054
jumlah 12,500.00
tahun 2022
MEDAN Harga Jumlah
% Penjualan
Triwulan I 20% 11,224.49 2054 23,055,102.46
Triwulan II 30% 16,836.73 2054 34,582,643.42
Triwulan III 30% 16,836.73 2054 34,582,643.42
Triwulan IV 20% 11,224.49 2054 23,055,102.46
jumlah 56,122.44 115,275,491.76

Maluku Harga Jumlah

% Penjualan
Triwulan I 30% 11,224.49 2054 23,055,102.46
Triwulan II 20% 7,482.99 2054 15,370,061.46
Triwulan III 20% 7,482.99 2054 15,370,061.46
Triwulan IV 30% 11,224.49 2054 23,055,102.46
jumlah 37,414.96 76,850,327.84

PAPUA Harga Jumlah

% Penjualan
Triwulan I 20% 3,741.50 2054 7,685,041.00
Triwulan II 30% 3,741.50 2054 7,685,041.00
Triwulan III 25% 4,676.87 2054 9,606,290.98
Triwulan IV 25% 4,676.87 2054 9,606,290.98
jumlah 16,836.74 34,582,663.96
tahun 2023

MEDAN Harga Jumlah

% Penjualan
Triwulan I 20% 12,344.90 2054 25,356,424.60
Triwulan II 30% 18,517.35 2054 38,034,636.90
Triwulan III 30% 18,517.35 2054 38,034,636.90
Triwulan IV 20% 12,344.90 2054 25,356,424.60
jumlah 61,724.50 126,782,123.00

Maluku Harga Jumlah

% Penjualan
Triwulan I 30% 12,344.90 2054 25,356,424.60
Triwulan II 20% 8,299.93 2054 17,048,056.22
Triwulan III 20% 8,299.93 2054 17,048,056.22
Triwulan IV 30% 12,344.90 2054 25,356,424.60
jumlah 41,289.66 84,808,961.64

PAPUA Harga Jumlah

% Penjualan
Triwulan I 20% 4,114.97 2054 8,452,148.38
Triwulan II 30% 4,114.97 2054 8,452,148.38
Triwulan II 25% 5,143.71 2054 10,565,180.34
Triwulan IV 25% 5,143.71 2054 10,565,180.34
jumlah 18,517.36 38,034,657.44
tahun 2024

MEDAN Harga Jumlah

% Penjualan
Triwulan I 20% 13,465.31 2054 27,657,746.74
Triwulan II 30% 20,197.96 2054 41,486,609.84
Triwulan III 30% 20,197.96 2054 41,486,609.84
Triwulan IV 20% 13,465.31 2054 27,657,746.74
jumlah 67,326.54 138,288,713.16

Maluku Harga Jumlah

% Penjualan
Triwulan I 30% 13,465.31 2054 27,657,746.74
Triwulan II 20% 8,976.87 2054 18,438,490.98
Triwulan III 20% 8,976.87 2054 18,438,490.98
Triwulan IV 30% 13,465.31 2054 27,657,746.74
jumlah 44,884.36 92,192,475.44

PAPUA Harga Jumlah

% Penjualan
Triwulan I 20% 4,448.44 2054 9,137,095.76
Triwulan II 30% 4,448.44 2054 9,137,095.76
Triwulan II 25% 5,610.54 2054 11,524,049.16
Triwulan IV 25% 5,610.54 2054 11,524,049.16
jumlah 20,117.96 41,322,289.84