How the New Normal Will Look Like the Old Normal

Covid didn’t transform human nature, which means that the more some things have changed, the more
they’ll stay the same.

As the Covid-19 pandemic recedes across much of the U.S., the difference between the lasting and
temporary changes that it wrought are starting to emerge. Hype and wishful thinking have contributed
to predictions that are likely to prove wrong; just because a change was striking or desirable doesn’t
mean it will stick.

One way to think about the changes is to analyze the balance of power between competing interests —
employers and employees, buyers and sellers, doctors and patients, among many others. Another is to
ask which changes were already underway before the pandemic and see whether those are likely to
accelerate or stall.

The pre-pandemic world operated as it did for specific reasons — and those reasons will reassert
themselves as life continues to normalize.

Take remote work. It may be a great arrangement for many workers, giving them more control over
their time and allowing them to avoid commuting. It may be great for many employers, letting them
save on costly real estate while maintaining a productive workforce.

But I am skeptical that it is the way of the future. One reason why: Workers compete with each other,
and those looking to get ahead will put in more face time at the office, knowing that deeper professional
relationships can lead to better opportunities and advancement. This will create pressure for other
workers to do the same. This was true before the pandemic, and will be true after it is a memory. In part
because of this, even if employers continue to offer more generous work-from-anywhere policies, they
will probably find before too long that most employees are in the office most days.

The same competitive dynamic could keep business travel at close to pre-pandemic levels. Maybe fewer
people will fly from New York to Los Angeles for a meeting. But for many occupations, getting on a plane
and traveling to meet a supplier, a customer or a potential colleague is a way to communicate the
importance of that interaction.

The pandemic suspended this dynamic, but it didn’t eliminate it forever. As the virus fades, it will
reassert itself. I live and work in Washington. It will be harder to get me to California than it used to be,
but I suspect I’ll be in New York, Boston and Chicago just as often.

Other aspects of pandemic life accelerated pre-existing trends. In some instances, I don’t think we’ll see
a reversal, despite forces that will be pushing for a return to the way things were.
Telemedicine is an example. For years, it has become steadily easier to receive routine medical care
through innovations like medical clinics inside retail stores staffed by nurses authorized to write
prescriptions.

The pandemic hit the gas pedal on ease. I had a sinus infection last fall. Within one hour, I had booked
an appointment, completed a video conference with a provider on my phone, and picked up my
prescription at a local pharmacy.

Some doctors may be concerned about inadequate patient interaction and too many non-physicians
with prescription pads, but the convenience offered to patients and the productivity boost enjoyed by
the health-care sector means that this change is here to stay.

Or consider e-commerce, which has been steadily growing as a share of total retail sales for the past two
decades. Online shopping surged during the pandemic, fell back a bit last summer, but remains above its
pre-virus trend.

Now that it’s safe to shop in brick-and-mortar stores, traditional retailers will try to lure customers back.
They will succeed to some extent, but many consumers who were wary of shopping online before the
pandemic will have enjoyed the experience.