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Uruguay Institutional Investor Presentation June 2020
Uruguay Institutional Investor Presentation June 2020
• March 1st, 2020: the new President Lacalle Pou takes office for a 5-year term,
leading a five-party political coalition with majority in Congress.
• March 13th, 2020: first cases of COVID-19 reported in Uruguay; the Government
declares sanitary emergency and launches swift policy response.
• April 16th, 2020: first Monetary Policy Committee of the new Central Bank
Board, announcing enhancements to the monetary policy framework and
communication strategy.
• April 23rd, 2020: Government submits to Congress a bill that includes key
structural reforms, including a new fiscal rule, changes to the governance of
state-owned enterprises and a roadmap for pension reform.
• May 15th, 2020: Finnish company UPM and the Government signed an MoU
confirming commitment to ongoing construction of the pulp mill.
2
Government’s strategy for virus containment after
Covid-19 onset in Uruguay
• To slow the spread of the virus, the Government did not enforce a
countrywide lockdown or mandatory house confinement; rather, it trusted
citizens to adhere to voluntary social distancing and follow hygiene
protocols, by appealing to “individual freedom with social responsibility”.
• In parallel, the Government took early and decisive action and sealed off
land borders, closed air traffic except to chartered repatriation flights,
suspended all public events and school classes, limited visits to nursing
homes and encouraged citizens to stay home and telework.
3
So far, Uruguay is holding up well in the face of adversity:
contagion curves are flattening and death toll remains subdued…
Mexico
3 120
Panama
Uruguay
2 80
Bolivia
1 40 Colombia
Argentina
0 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 10-Mar 5-Apr 1-May 27-May 16-Jun
Days since first confirmed case
Uruguay
As of June 19th, 2020, the number of active cases in Uruguay
had dropped to 15 patients.
Source: Johns Hopkins University; Our World in Data 4
…while ensuring an elevated number of daily tests and contact
tracing protocols, enabling the country to react to potentially new
bouts in the near future
Share of daily Covid-19 tests that are positive
(Rolling 7-day average, as of June 15th, 2020)
Uruguay
Protect household income and human capital through Preserve the financial health and credit quality of micro,
direct income transfers, expanded unemployment and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to ensure
health insurance, tax relief and deferral of mortgage functioning payment systems and supply chains between
obligations. producers, suppliers, intermediaries and creditors.
• Income transfers to vulnerable households to cover • State-owned development bank (BROU) introduced
food expenses and basic needs. more flexible loan repayment and financing terms.
• Targeted temporary deferrals in payroll, VAT and other • Capitalization of the National Guarantee System
income taxes, and partial reduction of mortgage (SIGa) to leverage banking system loans to SMEs,
obligations in state-owned mortgage bank. reducing the commission charged by the guarantee
system.
• Expanded social safety net for unemployment and
health insurance: • The National Development Agency launched direct
credit program for micro-entrepreneurs at subsidized
o more flexible terms for unemployment claims,
rates.
allowing firms to place employees in part-time
schedules. • The Central Bank deployed countercyclical monetary
policy tools:
o provision of unemployment benefit to self-
employed workers. o reduced commercial banks´ local currency
reserve requirements to inject additional liquidity
o Extensions of sick leave benefits for all workers
into the financial system.
65+ years old, in both the public and private sector.
o eased bank regulations, authorizing financial
institutions to defer companies´ loan payments
coming due for up to 180 days.
6
Banks’ strong capitalization and liquidity position supports credit
measures of the Central Bank; no spillovers to
financial system from Argentina
Solvency and liquidity of the banking system Banking system´s balance sheet exposure to Argentina
(To the non-financial sector, % of total)1/
Nº of times
the minimum Liquid assets Deposits
regulatory capital in % of total*
50
2,0 40 41,5
40
30
1,9
20
35 10,7
10
1,8
0
2001 2020*
1,7 30
Loans
20 18,1
1,6
15
25
10
1,5
5
1,4
0
1,4 20
2001 2020*
Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19
1/ End-period; data for deposits includes only private non-financial sector
(*) Liquid assets are those avaiilable within 30 days (*) As of April
Ghana
Gabon
Cameroon
Georgia
Panama
Qatar
Peru
Sri Lanka
El Salvador
Armenia
Costa Rica
Senegal
India
Bahrain
Malaysia
Paraguay
Kenya
Kuwait
Cote D'Ivoire
Zambia
Egypt
Brazil
Belarus
Lithuania
Bolivia
Kazakhstan
Dom. Republic
Angola
Ethiopia
Oman
Suriname
South Africa
Morocco
Belize
Vietnam
Uruguay
Source: J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Disclaimer: “Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but J.P. Morgan does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The Index is used with
permission. The Index may not be copied, used, or distributed without J.P. Morgan’s prior written approval. Copyright 2020, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.” 8
Uruguay remains a bastion of institutional, political and social
stability in Latin America
Strongest political stability and full democracy 1/ 2/ Highest adherence to the rule of law 3/
100
“Full Democracies” 0,8
80
0,6
60
0,4
40
20 0,2
0 0
URU CHL PAN ARG ECU PRY BOL PER BRA MEX COL URY CHL ARG PAN BRA COL PER ECU MEX BOL
8
60
6
40
4
20
2
0 0
CHL MEX COL PRY ECU PER BRA ARG PAN URY PAR MEX BOL BRA PAN PER COL ECU ARG CHL URY
Sources: 1/ Worldwide Governance Indicators, World Bank (2019); 2/ The Economist Intelligence Unit (2020); 3/ World Justice Project (2020); 4/ Verisk Maplecroft (first quarter of 2020);
Transparency International (2020) 9
Low informality and broad social safety net ensures efficient
work of automatic stabilizers
80
120 Jobless claims per month 60
70
100
Number of health insurance beneficiaries
60 as of each month (left axis) 50
80
50
40 60 40
30
40
20 30
20
10
0 0 20
URY CHL BRA ARG PAN ECU COL MEX PER PRY BOL Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jun-20*
• Given the COVID-19 containment measures, both sickness and unemployment insurance became a crucial policy instrument to
broadly and orderly cope with the health emergency and its fallout. Developed welfare system for working-age people in Uruguay
consists of near-universal access to healthcare, unemployment insurance, sickness insurance, and child and familiy benefits.
• The sharp increase in health insurance beneficiaries in March was mainly driven by the government's proactive policy of providing wage
compensation through sick leave to all elderly workers (over 65 years old) in the public and private sector, so that could stay at home.
Source: International Labour Organization – Regional Office for Latin America and Caribean (2015); Social Security Bank, Ministry of Economy and Finance 10
Low and declining virus incidence has allowed for faster
renormalization of business and social activities
Leading indicators suggest that economic downdraft may have bottomed-out, and a gradual
recovery is underway:
Electricity demand per day Fuel demand per day
(YoY change, in %) (Rolling 7-day, YoY change, in %)
10 0
0 -20
-10 -40
-20 -60
-30 -80
1-Mar 19-Mar 6-Apr 24-Apr 12-May 30-May 16-Jun 1-Mar 19-Mar 6-Apr 24-Apr 12-May 30-May 16-Jun
6
20
4
10
2 0,2
0
0
-10
-2 -1,4
-20
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020Q1* 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020Q1*
(*) YoY (*) YoY
49,6
40
-3 -2,7
20
-5 -4,4
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Apr-20*
0
1/ Does not Include inflows of funds to the Social Security Trust, of 1.2% of GDP
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2018 2019 2020Q1
(*) Last 12 months
13
The government is forging ahead with an ambitious reform
agenda backed by political majority in Congress
14
Milestones and timing of political & budget process
15
Inflation above target: shock to beef prices and FX depreciation
pass-through partially offset by falling non-tradable inflation
12
16 Tradables
11,1 15,5
Tradables without Beef
First Covid-19
cases confirmed 14 Non-Tradables
10 9,9
on March 13
Inflation
expectation1/
12
11,2
8
10
6 8
7,3
2 2
May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19 May-20 Dic-20 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19 May-20
1/ Median expectation in Central Bank´s market survey as of May 2020 1/ Excluding fruits and vegetables, and administred prices
17
New communication strategy and developing the FX
derivative markets
18
Floating exchange as a shock absorber; Central Bank intervenes
on both sides of the market to smooth out undue volatility
Currency performance vs USD since Covid-19 world outbreak Exchange rate and Central Bank FX intervention
(Percent change since February 19th, as of June 16th, 2020)
Year-end market
Spot market interventions (in expectation 1/
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 -150 28
Jan-18 Aug-18 Mar-19 Oct-19 May-20 Dic-20
Apreciation Depreciation
1/ Median expectation in Central Bank´s market survey as of May 2020
Current account balance compared with Latam In USD billion in % of GDP (right axis)
(In % of GDP, 2019) 20 35
15,9
30
1 0,7 15
29,2
25
10
0 20
5
15
-1
0 10
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Apr-20
-2
International reserves compared to LatAm
(In % of GDP, 2019)
-3
30
-4 25
20
-5 15
10
-6 5
URY MEX ECU ARG PRY PER BRA BOL CHL COL PAN
0
PER URY PAR BRA COL BOL MEX CHL ARG PAN ECU
Memo Item: Net Bond Issuance 2,132 • For the rest of 2020, the Government will strive to
rebalance currency mix in international debt market
1/ Projections.
(a) Excludes extraordinary transfers to the public Social Security Trust Fund. issuances: will aim to develop the global local currency
(b) Negative figure indicates an accumulation of Central Government liquid assets. curve (in CPI-linked and/or nominal fixed-rate), to the
extent that borrowing costs in local currency remain
consistent with sustainable debt dynamics and fiscal
restraint. Otherwise, does not rule out re-tapping
international debt market in dollars.
4.000
Foreign Currency
500 MEX
Local Currency
3.000
Available
redit Lines 400
from
Multilaterals
BRA
Liquid
URY
1.000 Assets 200 CHL PAN
PER
100
0
Debt service 100 200 300 400 500
Columna1
Liquidity buffer Columna2
over next 12 months February 19, 2020
1/ Debt service includes amortization plus interest payments (pre-Covid 19)
THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY OR SELL SECURITIES IN ANY JURISDICTION OR
AN INDUCEMENT TO ENTER INTO INVESTMENT ACTIVITY. THIS PRESENTATION HAS BEEN PREPARED BY THE REPUBLIC OF
URUGUAY (“URUGUAY”) SOLELY FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES. THIS PRESENTATION DOES NOT CONTAIN ALL THE
INFORMATION THAT IS MATERIAL TO AN INVESTOR. NO PART OF THIS PRESENTATION, NOR THE FACT OF ITS DISTRIBUTION,
SHOULD FORM THE BASIS OF, OR BE RELIED ON IN CONNECTION WITH, ANY CONTRACT OR COMMITMENT OR INVESTMENT
DECISION WHATSOEVER. THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT FINANCIAL, LEGAL, TAX OR OTHER PRODUCT ADVICE.
NO REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, IS MADE AS TO, AND NO RELIANCE SHOULD BE PLACED ON, THE
FAIRNESS, ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS OR CORRECTNESS OF THE INFORMATION OR ANY OPINION CONTAINED HEREIN. THE
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS PRESENTATION SHOULD BE CONSIDERED IN THE CONTEXT OF THE CIRCUMSTANCES
PREVAILING AT THE TIME AND WILL NOT BE UPDATED TO REFLECT MATERIAL DEVELOPMENTS THAT MAY OCCUR AFTER THE
DATE OF THE PRESENTATION. NEITHER URUGUAY NOR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES, AGENTS, DIRECTORS, EMPLOYEES, OFFICIALS
OR ADVISORS SHALL HAVE ANY LIABILITY WHATSOEVER (IN NEGLIGENCE OR OTHERWISE) FOR ANY LOSS ARISING FROM
ANY USE OF THIS PRESENTATION OR ITS CONTENTS OR OTHERWISE ARISING IN CONNECTION WITH THIS PRESENTATION.
The presentation may contain statements that reflect Uruguay’s beliefs and expectations about the future. These forward-looking statements are based
on a number of assumptions about the future, some of which are beyond Uruguay’s control. Such forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks
and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by the relevant forward-looking statements. Uruguay does
not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements to reflect events that occur or circumstances that arise after the date of this
presentation.
24
ANNEX
25
Economic pressures in Argentina have spilled through
inbound tourism, yet exports of other services picked up some of
the slack
Real effective exchange rate vis-à-vis other countries and regions Exports of services
(In USD million)
(Index base 100 = January 2017)
6.000 /1
Tourism Other
130
Real
Depreciation
120
Rest of the World
110 4.000
Overall
100
90
Brazil 2.000
Real
Appreciation
80
Argentina
70
0
2012 2014 2016 2018 2019
60
Jan-17 Sep-17 May-18 Jan-19 Sep-19 Apr-20 1/ Software, transport, logistics, maintenance, financial, personal and professional and
consultancy services
Currency and maturity structure of Government debt Government debt maturing in next 12 months
(End-period) (in % of total of total debt outstanding, as of end of each period)
(in % of GDP)
Debt in Foreign Currency (% of total)
Average Time to Maturity (in years, RHS)
100 15
14,4
15.5
Foreign Currency
Local Currency
75
12
57,6
50
9
4.5
25
0 6
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020Q1 2005 2020Q1
Baa2/BBB/BBB
February 2020. Confirmed Uruguay´s rating
Investment Grade at BBB- with Negative outlook.
Baa3/BBB-/BBB-
B1/B+/B+
35
Fossil Fuel
30 2%
Biomass
15%
Solar
25 3%
20 Wind Hidroelectric
30% 50%
15
10
Source: National Energetic Preliminary Balance 2019, Ministry of Industry, Energy and Mining; The International Energy Agency 29
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
Sweden
Switzerland
Finland
Denmark
Norway
Austria
U. Kingdom
France
Netherlands
Iceland
Uruguay
Ireland
Singapore
Luxembourg
Lithuania
Latvia
New Zealand
Spain
Colombia
Italy
Costa Rica
Canada
Chile
Israel
Hungary
United States
Slovak Rep.
Malta
Romania
Australia
Croatia
Malaysia
Peru
Panama
Georgia
Czech Rep.
Paraguay
Azerbaijan
Ecuador
Cyprus
Brazil
Korea, Rep.
Brunei Dar.
Mexico
Morocco
Albania
Thailand
Qatar
Sri Lanka
Argentina
Philippines
El Salvador
Greece
Armenia
Bulgaria
Montenegro
(Ranking position)
UAE
Namibia
Viet Nam
Ghana
Turkey
Bolivia
Poland
Indonesia
Dominican Rep.
Moldova
Oman
India
Energy Transition Index (ETI) in 2020
Jamaica
Guatemala
Trinidad and Tob.
China
Kenya
Russia
Tajikistan
Jordan
Algeria
Egypt
Honduras
Saudi Arabia
Bangladesh
Kazakhstan
Tunisia
Bahrain
Cambodia
Tanzania
Kuwait
Pakistan
Nepal
Transition Index: low air pollution and carbon footprint
Nicaragua
Ethiopia
Zambia
Botswana
Serbia
Iran
Ukraine
Top performer amongst developing economies in Energy
Mongolia
Developing economies
Mozambique
Benin
Venezuela
Cameroon
Nigeria
Lebanon
Haiti
30