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Stock Guide: Risk Management
Stock Guide: Risk Management
2020 Q3
Guide
Risk Management:
Fine-Tuning Your Offense and Defense
Stock Screen:
Stock Screen:
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*All screen results are computer-generated and were run on July 31, 2020.
That being said, some diversification in the thinking, “I’m buying on sale, my
is warranted. For example, it’s best profits will be bigger!” The truth is this:
not to put more than 35% to 40% of the best stocks can cost more money
your portfolio in any single stock. As but will often bring the best rewards.
far as allocation to one industry group Research shows that stocks reaching
or sector, 25% to 30% might be a a new price high will often continue
reasonable limit for a new investor. As higher, and stocks moving down in price
you gain more experience, you can go will usually fall farther. Strength begets
above this limit. But you must be fast strength in the stock market.
on your feet, always executing strict sell
discipline to protect yourself.
MARKETSMITH TIP: Calculate the
3. Buy a stock in increments as it dollar value of a full position by taking
displays good initial performance. your total portfolio value and dividing
Building a full stock position in several it by the number of positions you feel
purchases can help you reduce risk if comfortable holding.
the trade goes against you. This buying
strategy is called pyramiding, a concept For example, say your portfolio is worth
made famous by legendary investor $100,000 and you feel comfortable with
Jesse Livermore. 8 full positions for 100% exposure. One
eighth of $100,000 is $12,500 – the
Here’s an example of an effective value of a full position.
pyramiding strategy: buy 50% of a full
position at the pivot (or as close as At the pivot point, your first buy would be
possible). When the stock performs 50% of your full position: $6,250.
well and rises, you add 30% more when
it’s 2-2.5% up and a final 20% when it’s At 2-2.5% above the pivot point, your
another 2-2.5% up. You’ve now rewarded second buy would be 30%: $3,750.
a stock that proved its strength and
brought you profits from your initial At 4-5% above the pivot point, your third
buy point. and final buy would be 20%: $2,500.
4. When the overall market shifts, a few hedging strategies that can help
adjust your exposure. protect your gains if the stock were
Three out of every four stocks follow the to falter.
overall market trend. If you’re trying to
pick winning stocks during a downtrend, Index ETFs: Buying index ETFs (like SPY
you’re facing a serious headwind when for the S&P 500 and QQQ for the Nasdaq
75% of stocks are likely to lose value in 100) can be an effective hedge against
the short term until the trend changes. losses in a specific stock or when sector
Don’t take those odds! rotation leaves your current stocks
underperforming.
When the market’s in an uptrend, you
can be 100% invested (or more, if you’re Inverse Index ETFs: If your portfolio is
on margin). But when the market trend long on growth stocks, inverse index
changes to “Uptrend Under Pressure,” ETFs can serve as a hedge if the market
consider reducing your overall exposure trend moves downward. Consider this
by selling your worst-performing stocks. when the market show signs of topping.
*All screen results are computer-generated and were run on July 31, 2020. This screen can also be found on marketsmith.com in
shared screens.
A CONVERSATION WITH
David Ryan
David Ryan is a highly successful money
manager and a three-time U.S. Investing
Champion. He developed his investing
skills under IBD founder and investing
legend William O’Neil, who wrote about
Ryan in his bestselling book, How to
Make Money in Stocks. After working as
a portfolio manager, he founded Ryan
Capital Management and continues
to advise investors on maximizing
their returns.
What kind of hedging strategies do you Bill did one thing really well; better than
favor? How much do they vary based on anyone I’ve ever seen, in fact. He was
market conditions? the only person who could take the
At the beginning of a new uptrend, I find entire market and narrow it down to one
that there’s little reason to hedge. As single stock. He could find the strongest
time goes on and your profits increase, name in the whole market, sit through
I would start to hedge more, especially corrections and take that stock through
when volatility increases. It still takes its entire run. To this day I’ve still never
a little while longer to reach a top— seen anyone else who could do that and
though less time than it used to due to sell very close to the top.
algorithmic trading moving the market
more quickly. For Bill, small details made the big
difference in his stock selection. He
Now, If I felt the market was due to would tell us that you have to study the
correct, I’d consider a few broad hedging charts extremely closely. You have to
strategies. One, I could buy put options train your eye to recognize what a stock
on index ETFs like QQQ or SPY. Two, looks like at the beginning of a move,
I could short double-leveraged index the middle part and at the end. It takes
ETFs like SSO (2x the S&P 500) and years of looking at the biggest winners
QLD (2x the Nasdaq 100). I’d especially to engrain in your mind what those
consider shorting QQQ or QLD if my charts look like, but when you gain that
portfolio were particularly concentrated ability you can look at current stocks
in tech stocks. When the market gets hit in MarketSmith and recognize similar
big and you’re heavy in growth stocks patterns in leading stocks of years past.
(particularly high-flying tech stocks),
your portfolio can correct 1.5x – 2x How do you react during big corrections
what the general market does. You have like this past March – do you take
to be careful when you’re running a money off the table or look for shorting
concentrated high-growth portfolio. opportunities?
In this case, it happened so quickly. On
You worked as a portfolio manager for February 19 we reached a new high
William O’Neil for many years. What did and then it went virtually straight down.
you learn about risk management I hate to ever take a loss, so I started
from him? selling the majority of my positions
quickly. You have to take it day by day As an investor who generally favors
and follow your rules: set and obey your growth stocks, do value stocks enter
stop-losses, and don’t rationalize not into your strategy during periods of high
selling by thinking that you’re locking volatility?
in losses. No, I’m never looking at value stocks. I’m
always looking at growth, because that’s
Stick with your stops—the classic rule is where the big money is made. Over
7 to 8 percent below the price you paid many years, growth has been shown to
for the stock. Personally, my stop-losses dramatically outperform value.
are less than that. Once the stock has
moved away from your buy point, you Let me tell you a quick story about when
can use other technical factors like I worked with Bill O’Neil. Every Monday,
moving averages and trend lines to Bill would hold an all-hands-on-deck
help with your sell decisions. A lot of it meeting with his salespeople, who would
depends on an individual stock: Some go all over the world selling institutional
are very fast movers that run up along investors on the O’Neil family of
the 10- or 21-day lines; when they break products and stock research. Every now
below those lines, that’s a sell signal. If and then, one of the salesmen would
you’re in a bigger, slower-moving stock, pipe up and ask Bill if he would finally
maybe you’re looking to sell when it add a product geared toward value
breaks the 50-day or 200-day lines. investors, because some institutional
clients were asking for one. Bill would
It is nice to have some short positions always answer these questions in a
to negate some of the downside. If way that taught a person to never ask
there’s a sector starting to roll over and it again. Growth was the way, and that
underperform, I might short it even if was that.
the broader market is still holding up.
When the market corrects, shorts can If you’re too worried about volatility and
help offset losses in long positions. If the quick moves that come with growth,
the market’s going so strongly that it’s then perhaps you’re too concentrated
starting to get ahead of itself, I’ll start in a specific type of growth name and
selling intro strength. If the market looks you should diversify a little more. There
like it’s going to correct in the near term, aren’t that many people who can have a
I’ll start hedging so I don’t give as much concentrated portfolio of 4-5 stocks (and
back as if I’d remained fully invested. be on margin) and feel comfortable.
s Pictured: The Proshares Ultra QQQ (Ticker: QLD), an ETF that seeks performance equal to 2x
daily performance of the Nasdaq 100 index. Note the steep price decline (over 50%) from the
February 19 highs to the March 23 lows. This is an ETF that David would consider shorting if he
felt the markets were going to correct.
Last question: You won the U.S. horse. It was fast and aggressive, the
Investing Championship three times way the early ‘90s Bulls played.
when you were in your twenties. Which
famous three-peat would you say that Now that I’m older, I don’t have the
most resembled: young Michael Jordan stomach or the energy to trade like that.
and the ’90-’93 Chicago Bulls or the These days I rarely go on margin. I’m
“Last Dance” ’95-’98 Bulls? still trading similar stocks, but I’m not as
I would probably say the early ‘90s concentrated. With my age and my risk
Chicago Bulls. When I won those three tolerance, I’ve adjusted my trading style
championships, I was in my late twenties to still stay profitable, but not take the
and I had a “no lose” attitude. Don’t get big swings that I did as a younger man.
me wrong, I was controlling risk—but my
portfolio was concentrated in a total of That being said, I’m still a long way off
3-5 growth stocks at a time, plus I was from my last dance. n
moving my money aggressively to my
strongest performers. At times, 30-40%
of all my capital was allocated in one
stock as it was running. As soon as it got
tired, I’d cut it down to a small position
and move the money into a stronger
My Buy Point: September 19, 2019 at position, as the market was starting
$141.25. The following day, the stock to sell off. Take a look at the Nasdaq
broke out to a breakaway gap on the (0NDQC in MarketSmith): MSFT was
news that Microsoft would execute mimicking what the Nasdaq was doing
a $40 billion stock buyback. It briefly right before the worst of the coronavirus
crossed the pivot point but ended up market crash. In hindsight, I was happy
closing below it (not a deal-breaker I used early warning signs and larger
for me). What gave me conviction in market trends to lock in my gains at 26%
this breakout was the fundamentals: on the position. The next day, Microsoft
a strong 94 Composite Rating, an EPS sold off in heavy volume.
Rating of 93 and ROE of 40%. This
stock also had a steadily rising relative My 3 Takeaways:
strength line throughout 2019 and • Microsoft has some of the
accelerating earnings growth quarter strongest institutional ownership
after quarter. of any stock in the game. It’s the
definition of “institutional quality.”
How I Held It: The first week I was a bit This is the kind of stock that
nervous, as the stock tested the 50-day institutional funds hold for 10–15
line on September 24 but bounced back years or more, which provides a
strongly the following day. I knew that very solid floor of price support.
this was a stock that I wanted to hold for • You will not always sell at the top.
the long term, so I tried to ignore daily Even though I was up 34.6% at one
movements and focus more on point, I was more than happy to wait
the weekly chart. for a sell signal and still make 26%,
rather than try to hope the stock
bounces back to its previous high. It
My Sell Point: February 21, 2020 at
didn’t, FYI.
$178. On February 20, 2020, I noticed
that MSFT fell below the 10-day line; the • The only way to make big money is
next day, it crossed below the 21-day by holding stocks and being patient.
This was a great “set it and forget
exponential moving average line (both
it” stock for me—good returns, no
are advanced warning signals). It was
stress, just buy and keep an eye on
time for me to lock in my profits on this
the weekly chart.
*All screen results are computer-generated and were run on July 31, 2020. This screen can also be found on marketsmith.com in
shared screens.
Irusha Peiris: For years, I had essentially The goal: I don’t want to lose too much of
the same approach to my personal my hard-earned profit when the market
portfolio and the ones I managed pulls back. I did this too many times when
professionally—a traditional CAN SLIM I was “riding my winners” and hanging on
strategy that favored leading growth to full positions even after they made
stocks with great fundamentals. I would big gains.
build heavily concentrated positions in
a small number of leading stocks, go on I also spread out my portfolio a little
margin and be aggressive in pursuing more. I find that it’s a lot easier to ride out
big returns. pullbacks and bumps when a position is
7% of your portfolio as opposed to 20-
I’ve changed my approach in the last 25%. It makes it easier to sleep at night,
few years. It started with the assets that’s for sure. n
I managed as part of my job, where I
shifted to a greater focus on reducing
volatility and smoothing out my equity
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Risk Management:
Fine-Tuning Your Offense
and Defense
CONNECT WITH US