BRAND SWITCHING ANALYSIS

SUBMITTED BY:
ARCHITA GUPTA(2K20/UMBA/58)
PARUL AGGARWAL(2K20/UMBA/91)
 Introduction
Brand switching otherwise known as brand jumping is
the process of choosing to switch from routine use
-of one product or brand to steady use of a different
but similar product. When consumers switch from
one brand to another, building a picture of likely
brand switching behaviour occurs.
Brand switching is a situation where a brand loses a
once loyal customer to a competitor. In other words,
a shopper changes their buying habits, choosing
deliberately to purchase another brand instead of
their usual choice.
Customer switch brands due to various reasons, some
of the reasons could be: the price of your product
doesn’t match its value, your level of customer
service is either poor or lacking, your customers are
suffering from brand fatigue or you don’t understand
your customers well enough.
Definition of Terms
Brand: A brand is a name given to a product and/or service such
that it takes on an identity by itself. (can be a name, sign, symbol or
design)

Brand Loyalty: Brand loyalty is the positive association (trust)

consumers attach to a particular product or brand.

Brand Image: Brand image is the current view of the customers

about a brand. It can be defined as a unique bundle of associations
within the minds of target customers.

Global Brand: This is the brand that reflects the same set of
values around the world. It transcends its origin and creates strong
and enduring relationship with customers across countries and
cultures.

Selective Perception: It is a broad term to identify the

behaviour all people exhibit to tend to "see things" based on their
particular frame of reference.

Selective Exposure: Consumers select which promotional

messages they will expose themselves to. Selective attention
consumers select which promotional messages they will pay attention
to.

Selective Retention: It is the process whereby people more

accurately remember messages that are closer to their interests,
values and beliefs, than those that are in contrast with their values
and beliefs, selecting what to keep in the memory, narrowing the
information flow.

Material and Method

We administered 50 questionnaires randomly to
consumers of the juices considered. Descriptive
technique using Markov brand switching model was
used for the analysis of the data generated.

Markov Chains
A Markov chain is a stochastic model describing a
sequence of possible events in which the probability
of each event depends only on the state attained in
the previous event. A countably infinite sequence, in
which the chain moves state at discrete time steps,
gives a discrete-time Markov chain. Predicting
traffic flows, communications networks, genetic
issues, and queues are examples where Markov chains
can be used to model performance.
Notations of
Markovian Model
Suppose Xn with n n 0 denotes random variable on
discrete space S. The sequence X = (Xn: n  0 ) is
called a stochastic process. If P is a probability
measure of X such that P(Xn+1 = j/X0 = i0…, Xn = in)
= P(Xn+1 = j/ Xn = in) for all i0,… in, J  S and n 0 ,
then the sequence X is a Markov chain on S. The
probability measure P is the distribution of X, and S
is the state space of X. If the conditional probability
P(Xn+1 = j/Xn = in) are independent of time index n 
0 , then the Markov chain X is homogeneous and
denoted by P(Xn+1 = j/Xn = i) = Pij for all i,j  S.

Pij describes the probability of movement from state

i to state j during a specified or discrete time
interval.
where Pi j = 1, Pij ≥ 0 for all i,j and S1 S2, . . . Sn are
discrete states. However, if a Markov chain has
initial probability vector X0 = (i1, i2, . . . in) and
transition matrix Pij, the probability vector after n
repetition is X0 . p n i, j which defines the future
state probabilities.
Data Analysis and Results
Table 1: Brand Preference. 

Brands  Number of Percentage

Consumers 

B Natural 5 10
Paper Boat 6 12
Real 17 34
Tropicana  9 18
B Natural to Tropicana 1 2
Paper Boat to Real 1 2
Paper Boat to 1 2
Tropicana 
2 4
Paper Boat to B Natural
3 6
Real to Tropicana
1 2
Real to B Natural
1 2
Real to Paper Boat
Tropicana to Real 2 4
Tropicana to Paper Boat 1 2

Total  50

Table 2: Brand Insistence and Switching Rates 

Real Number of Percentage  Probability

Consumers 

Brand insistence 17 77 0.77

Switching to Tropicana 3 13 0.13
Switching to B Natural 1 5 0.05
Switching to Paper Boat 1 5 0.05

Sub Total  22
 Real Juice Brand Switching
Brand Insistence Switch to Tropicana
Switch to B Natural Switch to Paper Boat
5%
5%

13%

77%

This pie charts represents Brand Insistence and Switching

Analysis of Real juice.

Tropicana
Brand Insistence  9 75 0.75
Switching to Real 2 17 0.17
Switching to Paper Boat 1 8 0.08

Sub Total  12
 Tropicana Juice Brand Switching
Brand Insistence Switch to Real Switch to Paper Boat

8%

17%

75%

This pie charts represents Brand Insistence and Switching

Analysis of Tropicana juice.

B Naturals
Brand Insistence  5 83 0.83 
Switching to Tropicana 1 17 0.17

Sub Total  6
 B Natural Brand Switching
Brand Insistence Switch to Tropicana

17%

83%

This pie charts represents Brand Insistence and Switching

Analysis B Natural juice.

Paper Boat
Brand Insistence 6 60 0.60
Switching to Real 1 10 0.10
Switching to Tropicana 1 10 0.10
Switching to B Natural 2 20 0.20

Sub Total 10
 Paper Boat Brand Switching
Brand Insistence Switch to Real Switch to Tropicana Switch to B Natural

20%

10%

60%
10%

This pie charts represents Brand Insistence and Switching

Analysis Paper Boat juice.

The transition matrix is shown below:

REAL TROPICANA B NATURAL PAPER BOAT
REAL 0.77 0.13 0.05 0.05

TROPICANA 0.17 0.75 0 0.08

B NATURAL 0 0.17 0.83 0

PAPER BOAT 0.10 0.10 0.20 0.60

This matrix shows only the existing and the next brand preference
of the consumers. The transition diagram showing the three states
and the probabilities of moving from one state to another is shown:

Table 3: Computation of Steady State Probabilities of the

Product Brands  
 

Real Tropicana B Natural Paper

Boat
1 0.34 0.18 0.10 0.12

2 0.30 0.20 0.12 0.10

3 0.27 0.21 0.13 0.09

4 0.25 0.22 0.13 0.08

5 0.23 0.22 0.13 0.07

6 0.22 0.22 0.13 0.07

7 0.21 0.22 0.13 0.07

8 0.21 0.22 0.13 0.07

Discussion of Results
From Table 1, 34% of the respondents were of the opinion that they
would not drink any other juice apart from Real, 18% of the
consumers believed that they would only drink Tropicana and those
that insisted that they would drink Paper Boat were 12% of the
consumers and the rest 10% preferred B Natural.

From table 2, the total demands for Real, Tropicana, B Natural and
Paper Boat are 22, 12, 6 and 10 respectively. Out of these, only 17,
9, 5 and 6 insisted on drinking Real, Tropicana, B Natural and Paper
Boat respectively.
Those that would switch from Real to Tropicana, B Natural and
Paper Boat are 13%, 5% and 5% respectively. Those that would
switch from Tropicana to Real and Paper Boat are 2% and 1%
respectively. Consumers switching from B Natural to Tropicana is
only 1%. The number of consumers switching from Paper Boat to
Real, Tropicana and B Natural are 1%, 1% and 2% respectively.

From Table 3, the balanced vector was analysed using matrix

Algebra Tool V 2.1 and sequel to the examination of the Tables 3,
and interpretation of the brand preferences, we discovered that
Real seemed to be the preferred brand compared to others in the
long run. The implication of this is that consumers showed the most
brand loyalty towards Real followed by Tropicana, Paper Boat and B
Natural.

Conclusion
We have used transition matrix as a forecasting tool that could be
used to determine market environment in the future. This would be
of no help for Marketeers to look at the seriousness picked up in a
specific timeframe with item life cycle and furthermore permit
them to gauge the impact of underlying changes, for example,
advancements and value cuts.

At the point when consumers can't get fulfilment from an item, they
change to different brands. This makes an item to lose market to
others which at last decreases the benefit level of the item that
loses market to others. For the degree of exchanging and piece of
the pie to be limited, makers of items should be buyer arranged and
keep up nature of their items. Marketeers ought not additionally
permit their items to be out of market to stay away from
irreversible substitute.