CONCOURS EXTERNE ENA 2015 ANGLAIS

TEXTE 2

Politics and deal-making: Donald Trump's brazen genius

24th July 2015
The Economist

WHEN Donald Trump began roiling the calm but crowded waters of the Republican
presidential race with slanderous comments about Mexican immigrants, it was hard not to
wonder what the rentier reality-TV star was up to. When someone runs for president, the
safest inference is that he or she wants to be president. Even if it's a longshot, the attention is
nice, and something good might come from having raised one's public profile. So if you have
the money, why not run? Mr Trump's lust for attention, combined with his fortune, seemed to
be all the explanation needed. "Do I look like I have a plan?" says the Joker in "The Dark
Knight". "I'm a dog chasing cars. I don't know what I'd do if I caught it". Mr Trump's havoc-
spreading run seemed to share this improvisational spirit.
But now that he's leading the Republican field in national polls, it seems that Mr Trump may
have already caught the car, and always knew what he'd do with it: sell it for a profit.
When asked if he would pursue a third-party candidacy should he fail to secure the GOP
nomination, Mr Trump was coy: "so many people want me to, if I don't win," he said. "I'll
have to see how I'm being treated by the Republicans," Mr Trump explained, with just a hint
of blackmail. “If they're not fair, that would be a factor."
These are the words of a negotiator looking to cut a deal, and Mr Trump has put himself in a
fine position to get one. The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll not only has Mr Trump
leading the Republican pack, but also shows that a third-party run by Mr Trump could very
well ruin the party's chances of winning back the White House. The poll has Hillary Clinton,
who retains a commanding lead in the Democratic race, with a six-point lead in a hypothetical
contest against, Jeb Bush, a former Florida governor and the likeliest GOP-establishment
candidate. That gap would probably narrow into margin-of-error territory should the
Republican electorate, whose loyalties are now fragmented, eventually coalesce behind Mr
Bush. Which is to say, an election would probably be very close, but not if Mr Trump makes a
third-party bid.
In a hypothetical three-way race, Mr Trump would steal enough votes from Mr Bush to put
Mrs Clinton ahead by 16 points, according to the ABC News/Washington Post poll. The
Donald's conservative vote-siphoning effect would be less dramatic, no doubt, should
Republicans settle on a candidate more appealing to the party's most conservative members.
(There is method in Ted Cruz's refusal to condemn Mr Trump's madness.) Nevertheless, it
appears that Mr Trump could very well hand the election to Mrs Clinton, even if he manages
to draw only one or two percent of the voters who would have voted for the Republican
candidate in a two-way race. And it's a prospect he has yet to rule out.
It's tempting for establishment Republicans to write off Mr Trump as a flash in the pan, this
election season's Herman Cain. There are signs that Mr Trump is peaking. In three key swing
states, voters with a dim view of Mr Trump outnumber those who like him by a 2-to-1
margin. Still, Mr Trump is famous, which ought to be enough to keep him from sliding into
oblivion. And he is willing and able to fund his own campaign. That makes the threat of a
third-party candidacy something Republicans cannot afford to ignore.