11/18/21, 11:45 AM Example of Decomposition - Minitab

Example of Decomposition
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A marketing analyst wants to predict sales of a golf driver. The analyst collects previous sales data
to predict the sales of the product for the next 3 months.

1. Open the sample data, GolfDriverSales.MTW.

2. Choose Stat > Time Series > Decomposition.

3. In Variable, enter Sales.

4. In Seasonal length, enter 12.

5. Under Model Type, choose Additive.

6. Select Generate forecasts. In Number of forecasts, enter 3.

7. Click OK.

Interpret the results

The time series decomposition plot shows that the model underpredicts the data at the end of the
series. This indicates that Decompostion does not adequately model the trend or the seasonal
pattern. The analyst should try Winters' method to determine whether it provides a better fit to the
data.

Time Series Decomposition for Sales

Method

Model type Additive Model

Data Sales

Length 48

NMissing 0

Fitted Trend Equation

Yt = 173.06 + 2.111×t

Seasonal Indices

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11/18/21, 11:45 AM Example of Decomposition - Minitab

Period Index

1 -42.8472

2 -32.2639

3 -25.4306

4 -18.5972

5 -1.3056

6 47.3194

7 84.1111

8 30.5278

9 23.2361

10 4.1111

11 -22.8472

12 -46.0139

Accuracy Measures

MAPE 7.265

MAD 16.621

MSD 518.119

Forecasts

Period Forecast

49 233.672

50 246.367

51 255.312

52 264.256

53 283.659

54 334.396

Time Series Decomposition Plot for Sales

Decomposition - Component Analysis for Sales

Decomposition - Seasonal Analysis for Sales

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