Ecological Modelling 272 (2014) 59–67

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Ecological Modelling
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolmodel

A time series sequestration and storage model of atmospheric

carbon dioxide
G.L.A.F. Arce a , J.A. Carvalho Jr a,∗ , L.F.C. Nascimento b
a
Department of Energy, São Paulo State University – UNESP, Guaratinguetá Campus, Brazil
b
Medical School, University of Taubaté – UNITAU, Taubaté, Brazil

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: One of the main challenges of environment planning is to identify a model that connects all factors that
Received 18 October 2012 determine the carbon cycle, that is: ocean–terrestrial ecosystem–anthropogenic emissions–atmosphere.
Received in revised form 9 September 2013 Basic principle of mass conservation can be applied in statistical modeling with a historic time series to
Accepted 10 September 2013
obtain the atmospheric CO2 concentration, making it possible to create scenarios that will help in the
Available online 20 October 2013
decision making process. A model that links all carbon cycle factors has been developed this article, focus-
ing on the Boreal, Temperate, Tropical, and Polar thermal climatic zones to calculate atmospheric CO2
Keywords:
level. It was developed with nonparametric models based on carbon dioxide records from measurement
Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration
Thermal zones
stations: EIA (Energy Information Administration), CDIAC (Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center),
Time series model FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization), and SIO (Scripp Institution Oceanography). The advantage of
the model developed here is that it is able to analyze different scenarios, considering both the behavior
of particular countries or groups of countries in each thermal zone and their influence on the predicted
concentrations of atmospheric CO2 . Results show that in 2100, the atmospheric CO2 concentration will be
four times that of the pre-industrial period. The Temperate zone already emits almost half of the carbon
dioxide to the atmosphere; by 2100, this emission will increase 15 times more than that of the tropical
zone. China will be responsible for nearly two times the emissions of the United States. CO2 concentra-
tions in the atmosphere will stabilize when anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions decrease by at least
36% in the Temperate zone by 2100.
© 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Atmospheric CO2 concentration has not been as high as it is now
for the past 420,000 years, and probably not for the past 20 million
years (Prentice et al., 2005). Until the beginning of the industrial
age (1750), atmospheric CO2 concentration was approximately
280 ppm (±10). It has continuously risen ever since, reaching
397 ppm in 2013. Currently, the atmospheric CO2 concentration
growth rate is about 2 ppm yr−1 . Carbon dioxide is the largest con-
tributor to the anthropogenically enhanced greenhouse effect, and
is likely to remain so for the foreseeable future (Khatiwala et al.,
2013; Pan et al., 2011; Houghton, 2007; Keeling et al., 1995, 2001;
Bousquet et al., 2000; Sundquist, 1993).
The four major reservoirs ascribed to sinks and sources of
CO2 are the atmosphere, anthropogenic influence, terrestrial
ecosystems, and oceans (Wang et al., 2013; Sabine et al., 2004;
∗ Corresponding author at: Department of Energy, São Paulo State University –
UNESP, Campus of Guaratinguetá, Av. Ariberto Pereira da Cunha, 333, CEP 12516-
410, Guaratinguetá, SP, Brazil. Tel.: +55 12 31232838; fax: +55 12 31232835.
E-mail addresses: joao.a.carvalho.jr@pq.cnpq.br, joao@feg.unesp.br
(J.A. Carvalho Jr).
Gruber et al., 2002; Bousquet et al., 2000; Houghton et al., 1999)
Variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration can be regulated by
physical, chemical, and biological processes, which can be quanti-
fied by mass balance among these reservoirs.
For over 20 years, the main problem with atmospheric CO2 con-
centration has been the excess of anthropogenic CO2 emissions
(fossil fuel consumption and land use change) over CO2 sink from
terrestrial ecosystems and oceans. Approximately half of anthro-
pogenic CO2 emissions go to the atmosphere, and the other half
is captured by land ecosystems and oceans (Ajani et al., 2013;
Sundquist, 1993).
The importance of CO2 in global warming has provided the
impetus for research on the global carbon cycle. Carbon balance
assessments of the continental regions are very difficult to be car-
ried out in long periods due to seasonal variability between the
net CO2 exchanged. Therefore, in order to predict the future of
carbon sinks and, consequently, atmospheric CO2 concentration,
a quantitative assessment of CO2 sink and source is necessary
and the mechanism of the CO2 fluxes must be understood (Pan
et al., 2011; Gruber et al., 2009; Houghton, 2007; Gitz and Ciais,
2003).
In this situation, statistical models are needed to understand
the global carbon cycle. In this study, CO2 fluxes among four major

0304-3800/$ – see front matter © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.09.006
60 G.L.A.F. Arce et al. / Ecological Modelling 272 (2014) 59–67

reservoirs give the CO2 growth rate into the atmosphere, which Table 1
Evaluation of the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 .
allows forecasts to be made. The model does not directly consider
the effects of specific issue of climatic variables. Flux Zone

Boreal Temperate Tropical Polar

2. Historical data
Anthropogenic–Atmosphere RCO2 ,AAB RCO2 ,AATE RCO2 ,AATR RCO2 ,AAP
Ecosystem–Atmosphere RCO2 ,EAB RCO2 ,EATE RCO2 ,EATR RCO2 ,EAP
To establish the human impact on the global scale, it is necessary Oceanic–Atmosphere RCO2 ,OAB RCO2 ,OATE RCO2 ,OATR RCO2 ,OAP
to show the global carbon cycle in its simplest form, as in Fig. 1. RCO2 total ˙RCO2 ,B ˙RCO2 ,TE ˙RCO2 ,TR ˙RCO2 ,P
Fluxes of CO2 among the four reservoirs are identified.
Mass balance was applied to help understand the fluxes among
the reservoirs; thus, the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 concentra-
tion is represented by the differences between CO2 sink and sources where subscript K represents the fluxes between the reservoirs,
from each reservoir by means of and J is the thermal zones. Table 1 shows the CO2 growth rate
 
dmCO2 among fluxes and thermal zones. As it can be noted, each ther-
ACUMatm = INatm − OUTatm = (1) mal zone has three fluxes: anthropogenic–atmosphere, terrestrial
dt
RESERVOIR ecosystem–atmosphere and ocean–atmosphere. The CO2 growth
where ACUMatm is the CO2 growth rate (RCO2 ) in the atmosphere, rate for each thermal zone (˙RCO2 ,J ) is calculated through the sum
which is the result of the difference between the CO2 streams that of the CO2 growth rates given for each fluxes (RCO2 ,KJ ). Thereby, the
enters into the atmosphere (INatm – CO2 sources) and the CO2 total CO2 growth rate (RCO2 total ) is calculated through the sum of
stream that comes out of the atmosphere in address to other reser- all ˙RCO2 ,J . Note that the mass balance was supported by the inlet
voirs (OUTatm – CO2 sink). and the outlet of CO2 from the atmosphere.
To determine the atmospheric CO2 concentration in the m + 1 CO2 growth rates given for each fluxes (RCO2 ,KJ ) in Table 1
year, it is necessary to calculate the CO2 growth rate (RCO2 ) and to were calculated by time series, which follow the theory which is
sum the atmospheric CO2 concentration in the “m” year, according afterwards presented. All RCO2 ,KJ are based on historical records
to: from measuring stations. Those database were divided into four
thermal zones: Boreal, Temperate, Tropical, and Polar, due to simi-
[CO2 ]m+1 = [CO2 ]m + [RCO2 ]total (2)
lar climatic characteristics (average summer temperature, average
where [CO2 ]m is the CO2 concentration in the base year (in this winter temperature, precipitation, dry period, CO2 partial pres-
paper [CO2 ]1994 = 360.5 ppm), [RCO2 ]total is the CO2 growth rate, m sure), which determine oceanic and forest behavior (Malhi et al.,
is the base year, m + 1 is the next year. Thereby, to determine the CO2 1999).
growth rate in the atmosphere (RCO2 total ), the following equation The data for anthropogenic CO2 emissions were taken from the
was used: web sites of the Energy Information Administration (EIA), http://
 www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=90&pid=44
[RCO2 ]total = RCO2 ,KJ (3) &aid=8, and the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
J K (CDIAC), http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/. To obtain data for the

Fig. 1. Global carbon cycle with CO2 fluxes among the reservoirs.
 G.L.A.F. Arce et al. / Ecological Modelling 272 (2014) 59–67 61

Table 2 3. Modeling of sequestration and storage of atmospheric

Forest area for each thermal zone (ha).
CO2
Year Boreal Temperate Tropical

1995 1,372,000,000 1,038,000,000
2000 1,214,983,887 1,020,851,113
2005 1,231,985,753 1,044,510,247
Source: http://www.fao.org/forestry/sofo/en/.
ocean–atmosphere flux, data have been reorganized, taken from
Takahashi et al. (2002).
Data for the terrestrial ecosystem–atmosphere flux have been
considered as functions of the Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) and
the forest area of each thermal zone (AJ ) (Malhi and Grace, 2001;
Houghton et al., 1999). They were obtained by multiplying these
two parameters:
RCO2,EAJ = NEE × AJ
Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) is the carbon balance between
the terrestrial-ecosystem and the atmosphere. In it, photosyn-
thesis processes are CO2 sinks and respiration processes are CO2
sources. Houghton (2002) explains these processes. NEE data are
taken from experimental data for each thermal zone from dif-
ferent authors. For the Boreal zone, the Net Ecosystem Exchange
values (−9,000,000 gC ha−1 yr−1 ) are taken from Lindroth et al.
(1998); for the Temperate zone, the Net Ecosystem Exchange values
(−2,900,000 gC ha−1 yr−1 ) are taken from a number of studies that
were summarized by Malhi et al. (1999); and for the Tropical zone,
the Net Ecosystem Exchange values (−1,000,000 gC ha−1 yr−1 ) are
taken from Grace et al. (1995).
For generating the terrestrial ecosystem–atmosphere flux
database, it was assumed that each thermal zone presents a repre-
sentative type of tree, thus the NEE was considered as a constant
value. Nevertheless, due to land use change, the forest area (AJ )
constantly changed, and this had an influence on the RCO2 ,EAJ .
To obtain the forest area for each thermal zone, the data were
downloaded and reorganized from the website of the Food and
Agriculture Organization (http://www.fao.org/forestry/sofo/en/),
shown in Table 2.
Table 3 shows the real data for CO2 flux for each thermal zone.
It should be noted that natural CO2 fluxes have only been deter-
mined for three years: 1995, 2000, and 2005. Thus, the database
uses the following assumption: the polar zone does not have ter-
restrial ecosystem–atmosphere flux (RCO2 ,EAP ) and anthropogenic
CO2 emissions (RCO2 ,AAP ) because there are no forests and people
living there.
1,755,000,000 After the database was generated, data were fitted into an
1,820,363,000 equation following the time series theory. The goal was to build
1,675,526,000 models based on the database. Usually, many models found in lit-
erature are based on frequency-domain and the models proposed
are non-parametric. Therefore, the equation for each CO2 growth
rate (RCO2 ,KJ ) is a function of time which is considered as:
f (t) = RCO2 ,KJ = T (t)KJ + S(t)KJ (5)
in which T(t) is the component that smoothly varies with time,
represented by a polynomial with deterministic tendencies of rank
m, where m > 0,
T (t) = ˇ0 + ˇ1 (t) + · · · + ˇm (t m ) (6)
(4)
and S(t) is the component with harmonic tendencies, representing
cyclical and seasonal variations, given by

p
S(t) = {˛n cos(n t) + ˇ sin(n t)} (7)
n=1
The time series analysis resulted from observation of the
stochastic processes. Its basic goal is to approximate a time function
for a harmonic or sinusoidal component (Hamilton, 1994).
Frequently models with one and more periods are used; thus,
one or constant periods are represented as
S(t) =  + A cos(wt) + B sin(wt) (8)
Models with multiple periods are represented as
S(t) =  + A1 cos(w1 t) + B1 sin(w1 t) + A2 cos(w2 t) + B2 sin(w2 t)
(9)
in which  is a constant, A, B, A1 , B1 , A2 and B2 are amplitudes, and
w is frequency.
The measured data were used to determine the tendency and
dependence on seasonal effects for some of the fluxes. Addition-
ally, the following assumption was considered for the model: the
ocean–atmosphere flux was considered constant for a time scale of
hundreds of years; according to Fletcher et al. (2006), the small
potential impact of long-term changes in ocean circulation and
biochemistry has remained stable.

Table 3
Database of CO2 fluxes by thermal zone (TgC).

Year Zone

Boreal Temperate

CO2 flux: Terrestrial CO2 flux: CO2 flux: CO2 flux: Terrestrial CO2 flux: CO2 flux:
ecosystem ↔ Atmosphere Ocean ↔ Atmosphere Anthropogenic ecosystem ↔ Atmosphere Ocean ↔ Atmosphere Anthropogenic

1995 1235 −390 660 −3010 −2430 4564

2000 1095 −320 666 −2961 −2170 4876
2005 1109 −396 741 −3029 −2178 5660

Year Zone

Tropical Polar

CO2 flux: Terrestrial CO2 flux: CO2 flux: CO2 flux: Terrestrial CO2 flux: CO2 flux:
ecosystem ↔ Atmosphere Ocean ↔ Atmosphere Anthropogenic ecosystem ↔ Atmosphere Ocean ↔ Atmosphere Anthropogenic

1995 −1755 1070 2953 – −470 –

2000 −1820 1200 3045 – −440 –
2005 −1676 1359 3214 – −397 –
62 G.L.A.F. Arce et al. / Ecological Modelling 272 (2014) 59–67

4. Results and discussion T (t)AAT = [a + b(t)] (20)

The equations for T(t) and S(t) were fitted to historical database
from 1995 to 2005. As previously stated, the CO2 growth rate was
fitted for each CO2 flux in every thermal zone. Thus, for the Boreal
zone, the ˙RCO2 ,B is given by the sums of CO2 growth rate of each
flux (˙RCO2 ,KB = RCO2 ,AAB + RCO2 ,EAB + RCO2 ,OAB ), where K are the
fluxes and B is the Boreal zone. In this sense, the CO2 growth rate
for anthropogenic–atmosphere flux (RCO2 ,AAB ) is represented by Eq.
(10) which is composed of the tendency (T(t)AAB ) and the compo-
nent with harmonic tendency (S(t)AAB ), both represented by Eqs.
(11) and (12), respectively. Now, to determine CO2 growth rate
in the terrestrial ecosystem–atmosphere flux – RCO2 ,EAB (Eq. (13)),
the tendency (T(t)EAB ) and the component with harmonic tendency
(S(t)EAB ) were fitted to the database by means of Eqs. (14) and (15),
respectively.
S(t)EAT = [A + B sin(C(t) + D)] (21)
In the same way, for the Tropical zone, the ˙RCO2 ,TR is
given by the sums of CO2 growth rate of each flux (˙RCO2 ,KTR =
RCO2 ,AATR + RCO2 ,EATR + RCO2 ,OATR ), where K denotes the fluxes
and TR represents the tropical zone. Thus, the CO2 growth
rate for anthropogenic–atmosphere flux (RCO2 ,AATR ) (Eq. (22))
is determined by the sum of the tendency (T(t)AATR ) and the
component with harmonic tendency (S(t)AATR ), both represented
by Eqs. (23) and (24). The CO2 growth rate for terrestrial
ecosystem–atmosphere flux – RCO2 ,EATR (Eq. (25)) is determined by
the sums of the tendency (T(t)EATR ) and the component with har-
monic tendency(S(t)EATR ), which are represented by Eqs. (26) and
(27), respectively.

RCO2 ,AAB = T (t)AAB + S(t)AAB (10) RCO2 ,AATR = T (t)AATR + S(t)AATR (22)

T (t)AAB = [a exp b(t)] (11) T (t)AATR = [a exp(bt)] (23)

S(t)AAB = [A + B cos C(t) + D sin E(t) + F cos G(t) + H sin I(t)] (12) S(t)AATR = [A + B sin(C(t) + D) + E cos(F(t) + G)

+ H sin(I(t) + J) + K cos(L(t) + M)] (24)

RCO2 ,EAB = T (t)EAB + S(t)EAB
T (t)EAB = [a + b(t)]
S(t)EAB = [A + B sin(C(t) + D)]
Similarly, for the Temperate zone, the ˙RCO2 ,TE is given by
the sum of CO2 growth rate of each flux (˙RCO2 ,KTE = RCO2 ,AATE +
RCO2 ,EATE + RCO2 ,OATE ), where K denotes the fluxes and TE repre-
sents the Temperate zone. Eq. (16) represents the CO2 growth rate
for anthropogenic–atmosphere flux (RCO2 ,AATE ). It is composed of
the tendency (T(t)AATE ) and the component with harmonic tendency
(S(t)AATE ) which is determined by Eqs. (17) and (18), respectively.
The CO2 growth rate for the terrestrial ecosystem–atmosphere flux
– RCO2 ,EATE (Eq. (19)) is determined by the sums of the tendency
(T(t)EATE ) and the component with harmonic tendency(S(t)EATE ),
represented by Eqs. (20) and (21), respectively.
RCO2 ,AATE = T (t)AATE + S(t)AATE
T (t)AAT = [a exp(bt)]
S(t)AAT = [A + B cos(C(t) + D) + E sin(F(t) + G)]
RCO2 ,EATE = T (t)EATE + S(t)EATE
(13)
RCO2 ,EATR = T (t)EATR + S(t)EATR (25)
(14)
T (t)EATR = [a + b(t)] (26)
(15)
S(t)EATR = [A + B cos(C(t) + D)] (27)
As it can be seen, the ˙RCO2 ,OAJ were not fitted for all thermal
zones because it was considered as a constant value, according to
the aforementioned supposition. Tables 4 and 5 show the coeffi-
cient for the S(t) and T(t) equations.
The S(t) and T(t) equations were fitted to the annual database
of the anthropogenic–atmosphere flux in 1995 until 2005. For the
terrestrial ecosystem–atmosphere flux, a database was built for the
years of 1995, 2000, and 2005. In spite of having little data, the
dynamics or seasonal variation was repeated for the subsequent
years by means of the harmonic component and tendency (S(t) and
T(t), respectively). To validate the model, Fig. 2 presents the forecast
(16)
obtained from the model and compared with real data from NOAA.
(ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/co2 annmean mlo.txt).
(17)
Fig. 3 shows the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 for each ther-
mal zone in 1995, 2000 and 2005. The temperate and polar zones
(18) behave as CO2 sinks for 1995, although between 2000 and 2005, the
Temperate zone became a CO2 source in response to the variability
(19) of its natural fluxes (terrestrial ecosystem and ocean) and due to an

Table 4
Coefficient of the S(t) equation of each thermal zone.

Coefficient Zone

Boreal Temperate Tropical

S(t)AAB S(t)EAB S(t)AATE S(t)EATE S(t)AATR S(t)EATR

A 30.2278 0.21 × 10−8 172.0537 0.21 × 10−8 1.5986 0.21 × 10−8

B −27.1774 137.9271 −243.4100 103.9271 205.2956 53.9271
C 1.1786 3.1415 0.75015 3.1415 −2.5067 3.1415
D −12.8825 −0.2862 −1.8364 −0.2862 15.7613 −0.2862
E 0.1738 – 165.8007 – 67.0641 –
F 14.8974 – 31.6383 – −2.5067 –
G 1.4448 – −0.1130 – 10.8501 –
H 6.1478 – – – 189.7516 –
I 1.4447 – – – 2.5515 –
J – – – – −15.5533 –
K – – – – −128.0480 –
L – – – – 12.5515 –
M – – – – −22.4813 –
 G.L.A.F. Arce et al. / Ecological Modelling 272 (2014) 59–67
Table 5
Coefficient of the T(t) equation of each thermal zone.
Coefficient Zone
Boreal
T(t)AAB T(t)EAB
a 626.526 1192.35
b 0.01136 −12,589
Fig. 2. Comparison between real data and model data.
increase in anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Nevertheless, the polar
zone remains the same: it is a CO2 sink throughout this period.
The annual CO2 fluxes in each thermal zone were computed
and are shown in Table 6. For the Boreal zone, an opposite pat-
tern was observed between its natural fluxes; thus, the terrestrial
ecosystem–atmosphere flux in this zone indicates a CO2 source,
because the Boreal forest is frequently an increasing carbon source
in summer, when soil temperatures are high and there is a total
loss of carbon. Normally, in wintertime, there is a small but per-
sistent CO2 source, due to snow cover insulation maintaining the
surface soil temperature close to zero. During spring thaw, rates
of CO2 exchange rise rapidly from the wintertime; respiration ini-
tially picks up more rapidly than photosynthesis, resulting in a brief
peak of carbon loss from the system into atmosphere. During the
period of 1995–2005, it decreased by approximately 125 TgC. The
ocean–atmosphere flux is a CO2 sink, increasing by around 8 TgC
in the same period of time. Even though there is some variability
between the natural fluxes increased CO2 uptake from the atmo-
sphere, anthropogenic emissions were still around 81 TgC higher.
Fig. 3. Growth rate of atmospheric CO2 concentration from thermal zones.
63
Temperate Tropical
T(t)AATE T(t)EATE T(t)AATR T(t)EATR
4454.774 −2980.30 2900.02 −1808.7
0.018509 −1.8880 0.008775 7.9474
For the Temperate zone, it should be emphasized that both
natural reservoirs are CO2 sinks but had variations in the period
of 1995–2005. The terrestrial ecosystem–atmosphere flux CO2
sequestration increased by around 19 TgC. This is probably because
the bulk fluxes are larger in temperate forests, which have higher
CO2 emissions than any other zone at low troposphere levels. Thus,
the plants often acclimatize to higher concentrations of CO2 so
that their photosynthesis and growth rates return to the rates
observed at ambient levels. However, within a few years, all exist-
ing ecosystems often show an initial CO2 increase in their biomass
that diminishes over time. The ocean–atmosphere flux CO2 seques-
tration decreased by approximately 262 TgC. Many thermal zones
have atmospheric CO2 uptake, especially in Boreal, Temperate and
Polar zones, because mid-depth and deep waters are formed by
the sinking of cold surface waters. The atmospheric CO2 concen-
tration is lower, which would be in equilibrium with the average
concentration of surface waters. Any process that lowers the den-
sity of these mid-latitude surface waters, i.e. melting ice, increasing
precipitation, increasing river, and warming may reduce the rate
of oceanic CO2 uptake, which would explain a decrease in CO2
sequestration over these zones. Nevertheless, the changes of CO2
sequestration for the Temperate zone are a result of these changes
between the natural fluxes, and by the increase of the anthro-
pogenic emissions up to around 1044 TgC in this period.
For the Tropical zone, an opposite pattern was observed
between its natural fluxes. The data shows that the terrestrial
ecosystem–atmosphere flux indicates CO2 sequestration, despite
the fact that its CO2 sequestration capacity decreased by around
87 TgC between 1995 and 2005. These decreases of CO2 seques-
tration in tropical forests are due to the forest clearance rate and
land use changing faster than some NEE increases, whereas the
ocean–atmosphere flux is a CO2 source. The tropical zone is an
exception to the oceanic uptake pattern. It is common in the car-
bon cycle due to the solubility of the ocean being driven by vertical
mixing, and also because of a variation in temperature and sea-
water’s carbon chemistry. This solubility results from the fact that
CO2 is approximately twice as soluble (CO2 uptake) in cold surface
waters than in the warm surface waters near the tropical zone.
These equatorial patterns increased by around 289 TgC in the same
time period. In addition, anthropogenic emissions increased around
203 TgC.
The mass balance of the global carbon cycle as a whole is
the resultant of dynamics, as summarized above, quantifying the
growth rate of CO2 . Therefore, there is an increase of approximately
2 ppm per year (1 ppm CO2 = 2.12 × 1015 gC).
The modeling of atmospheric CO2 concentration is appropri-
ately simple; it does not take into consideration unexpected and
uncontrollable instabilities that frequently arise due to the lack
of data on fluxes before 1995, the results show an average error
of approximately 1.7%. This means that, the relative error would
be reduced if more historical data were available (specifically ter-
restrial ecosystem–atmosphere flux and ocean–atmosphere flux).
Despite the assumptions adopted in the model, the computation
data does not considerably affect the forecast results of atmospheric
CO2 concentration (see Fig. 2).
64 G.L.A.F. Arce et al. / Ecological Modelling 272 (2014) 59–67

Table 6
Annual CO2 fluxes by thermal zone (TgC).

Year Zone

Boreal Temperate

CO2 flux: Terrestrial CO2 flux: CO2 flux: CO2 flux: Terrestrial CO2 flux: CO2 flux:
ecosystem ↔ Atmosphere Ocean ↔ Atmosphere Anthropogenic ecosystem ↔ Atmosphere Ocean ↔ Atmosphere Anthropogenic

1995 1231 −387 644 −3009 −2484 4564

1996 1203 −372 643 −3000 −2424 4538
1997 1175 −357 628 −2990 −2364 4705
1998 1147 −343 637 −2980 −2305 4735
1999 1119 −328 667 −2970 −2245 4788
2000 1090 −313 680 −2961 −2185 4981
2001 1093 −329 670 −2974 −2192 5028
2002 1096 −346 672 −2988 −2200 5130
2003 1099 −362 702 −3001 −2207 5305
2004 1103 −379 727 −3015 −2215 5486
2005 1106 −395 725 −3028 −2222 5608

Year Zone

Tropical Polar Global

CO2 flux: Terrestrial CO2 flux: CO2 flux: CO2 flux: CO2 flux: RCO2 CO2 flux: RCO2
ecosystem ↔ Atmosphere Ocean ↔ Atmosphere Anthropogenic Ocean ↔ Atmosphere (TgC) (ppm)

1995 −1757 1056 2965 −468 2355 1.11

1996 −1770 1083 2886 −462 2324 1.10
1997 −1782 1109 2964 −456 2631 1.24
1998 −1795 1135 2995 −450 2776 1.31
1999 −1808 1161 2974 −444 2913 1.37
2000 −1821 1187 3065 −438 3285 1.55
2001 −1792 1219 3034 −430 3326 1.57
2002 −1763 1250 3098 −421 3529 1.66
2003 −1735 1282 3108 −412 3778 1.78
2004 −1706 1314 3141 −404 4052 1.91
2005 −1670 1345 3168 −395 4235 2.01

4.1. Future atmospheric CO2 concentration
With Eq. (3), models for each of the fluxes were obtained and
then, by means of Eq. (1), the annual average CO2 growth rates
(RCO2 ) were computed. To determine future atmospheric CO2 con-
centrations, Eq. (2) was used.
Fig. 4 shows the atmospheric CO2 concentration forecast for
the next 90 years. By the year 2100, atmospheric CO2 concentra-
tion will have reached 1072 ppm. This forecast is 92 ppm, 172 ppm
and 260 ppm higher than that predicted by Cox et al. (2000) and
the models showed for IPCC – Bern and ISAM model, respectively
(Prentice et al., 2005) because the temperature was not linked to cli-
matic variables. For a complete analysis, climatic variables such as
temperature and spectral irradiance should be included (Cox et al.,
2008; Bartsev et al., 2008; Keeling et al., 2007). In this paper, these
variables have not been considered because it was assumed that the
real data obtained from the measurement station is already influ-
enced by these variables. The advantage of the present model is the
ability to analyze different scenarios, considering both the behavior
and the influence of particular countries or groups of countries in
each thermal zone on the predicted concentrations of atmospheric
CO2 .
The present forecast still indicates that global carbon emissions
will more than double by 2050 and atmospheric CO2 concentration
will reach around 550 ppm with few signs of stabilization. Based on
scientific consensus, this could lead to significant effects on climate
change as a consequence of such CO2 levels.
Fig. 5 shows that until the year 2100, the Temperate zone
will most contribute to atmospheric CO2 concentration, clearly
as a result of anthropogenic CO2 emissions: They will increase
five times over the anthropogenic CO2 emissions in 2005. Anthro-
pogenic CO2 emissions from the Tropical zone will reach twice
the level of 2005, and the Boreal zone will increase three times

Fig. 4. Atmospheric CO2 concentration forecast. Fig. 5. Anthropogenic CO2 emissions until 2100.
 G.L.A.F. Arce et al. / Ecological Modelling 272 (2014) 59–67
Fig. 6. Terrestrial ecosystem–atmosphere flux until 2100.
in relation to the same year. This can be explained by the fact that
the developed and developing countries in the Temperate zone use
more energy derived from fossil fuels.
Fig. 6 shows the variations in the terrestrial
ecosystem–atmosphere fluxes up to the year 2100. The Boreal
zone will change from CO2 source to sink, probably due to climate
change and/or global warming because of the expected increase
in thawing. The Boreal forest will sequester more CO2 from
the atmosphere due to an increase in photosynthesis time. The
Temperate zone will increase its CO2 sequestration up to around
130 TgC, and the Tropical zone will decrease its CO2 sequestration
down to around 644 TgC. There are two possible explanations: (1)
forest respiration will increase due to a climatic change and, (2)
deforestation and land use change will increase in the Amazon
forest.
4.2. Influence of the United States and China
As mentioned above, the Temperate zone has the most anthro-
pogenic CO2 emissions. However, it is important to recognize which
65
Fig. 7. World’s largest fossil fuel emitters.
Source: http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=90&pid=
44&aid=8.
countries have more influence on these emissions. Fig. 7 shows the
main countries with anthropogenic CO2 emissions in 2005. USA
and China are the main CO2 emitters, responsible for 70% of all
CO2 emitted on this thermal zone, followed by Russia, Japan and
India.
Recently, preliminary estimates made by the Carbon Dioxide
Information Analysis Center (Le Queré et al., 2009) suggest that
globally, 9139 TgC was emitted into the atmosphere in 2010, which
was up 6% from 2009 global estimates, and is the largest increase
on record. Much of the 6% global increase from 2009 to 2010
was due to increased emissions from the world’s largest fossil-fuel
emitters.
Today, China has overtaken the United States and consequently
will increase its emissions. In 2010, China’s emissions rose to
2247 TgC, an increase of about 10% (204 TgC), and the United
States’ emissions were 1498 TgC, which increased 4% (60 TgC). This
dramatic raise was largely driven by the energy demand from
developing countries, especially China (IEA, 2011).
80% of China’s energy comes from fossil fuels. This country
draws over 66% of its energy supply from coal, 17% from oil,
and 3% from natural gas. The United States’ energy production
is 24% from coal, around 38% from oil, and 24% from natu-
ral gas. The emission factor of oil (102.12 kg CO2 /MMBTU) and
coal (103.63 kg CO2 /MMBTU) are nearly twice that of natural gas
(57.71 kg CO2 /MMBTU) (Saygın et al., 2009). Therefore, China’s
energy matrix is more polluting than the Unites States’ energy
matrix. In the future, coal is expected to supply a great majority
of China’s growing energy demand. Power generation is rapidly
increasing and there are large coal reserves, compared to the
limited reserves of other energy sources.
Thereby, China will be responsible for 59% of the CO2 emissions
forecast for 2100, followed by the United States with 22%, which
is larger than the estimate made by DOE in 2006, suggesting a
reduction of up to 15% of CO2 emissions from the United States.
To obtain knowledge about the impact produced by anthro-
pogenic CO2 emissions from these countries on global atmospheric
CO2 concentration, forecasts were developed using the model in
order to assess the influence of each country. The first scenario did
not consider China’s anthropogenic CO2 emissions, and the sec-
ond scenario did not consider the United States’ anthropogenic CO2
emissions.
Fig. 8 shows the influence of China and the United States on
global atmospheric CO2 concentration from 1995 to 2100 based on
results of the model. Atmospheric CO2 concentration without the
United States’ emissions would decrease to 944 ppm and, without
China, to 812 ppm.
Table 7 shows that, without China’s emissions, global anthro-
pogenic CO2 emissions could reduce to 22,232 TgC, and, without
the United States’ emissions, to 37,383 TgC in 2100.
66 G.L.A.F. Arce et al. / Ecological Modelling 272 (2014) 59–67
Table 7
Percentage of influence of China and the United States on atmospheric CO2 concentration.
Scenarios Global anthropogenic CO2 emissions [TgC]
Model 41,008
Without China 22,232
Without the United States 37,383
Fig. 8. United States’ and China’s influence on global atmospheric CO2 concentra-
tion.
4.3. Stabilization of the atmospheric CO2 concentration
According to Prentice et al. (2005), approximately 34% of the
increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration comes from burning
fossil fuel. In order to maintain the increasing rate of electricity
production from fossil fuels, clean fossil fuel power plants must be
developed. This result could only be obtained with carbon capture
processes (Damm and Fedorov, 2008).
Today, it is important to get to know how much these anthro-
pogenic CO2 emissions should be reduced to stabilize atmospheric
CO2 concentration. Atmospheric CO2 concentration would be
671 ppm in 2100 if a reduction of 34–46% from anthropogenic CO2
emissions were obtained.
Fig. 9 shows that should the anthropogenic CO2 emissions
be reduced to 12,674 TgC in the Temperate zone, global anthro-
pogenic CO2 emissions would reduce to 21,999 TgC (approximately
the same as China without its anthropogenic emissions). To meet
the requirements of the Kyoto protocol proposal, the Temperate
zone would have to decrease its emissions by around 36%, reach-
ing an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 565 ppmv, as shown in
Fig. 10.
Fig. 9. Reduction of anthropogenic CO2 emission in the Temperate zone.
Atmospheric CO2 concentration [ppmv] Influence %
1072 –
812 24
944 11
Fig. 10. Forecast of atmospheric CO2 concentration with 36% emission reduction in
the Temperate zone.
5. Conclusions
Unlike natural reservoirs, anthropogenic influence has no CO2
sink. This produces unstable feedback among the natural reser-
voirs of the global carbon cycle. These instabilities could result in
an increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration and have con-
sequences on the climate by causing a thermal imbalance on the
Earth.
According to the model developed here, atmospheric CO2 con-
centration will reach 1072 ppmv by the year 2100. The Temperate
zone will be the major culprit of increased CO2 emissions. CO2 emis-
sions are significant in the northern hemisphere (Temperate zone).
The two largest CO2 emitters, China and United States, are located
in this zone. China’s influence is twice that of the United States.
Atmospheric CO2 concentration levels must be reduced, but a
significant decrease in anthropogenic CO2 emissions and fossil fuel
consumption is certainly not feasible in the near future. In order
to comply with the proposals in the Kyoto protocol, the Temperate
zone would have to decrease its anthropogenic CO2 emissions by
nearly 36%. This would be like China not emitting anthropogenic
CO2 ; therefore, it is in fact quite impossible.
An appropriate balance on the global carbon cycle is needed in
order to create fluxes of anthropogenic CO2 sinks. This would only
be possible with the use of new CCS technologies (Carbon Capture
and Storage).
Natural reservoirs will not sequester more anthropogenic CO2
by the year 2100, since there are few changes in the absorp-
tion capacity of the natural reservoirs. For example, the natural
reservoirs of the Temperate zone have a greater capture capac-
ity; however, in the year 2003, a portion of the anthropogenic CO2
emissions was sequestrated by reservoirs in this zone, but the other
portion goes into atmospheric circulation toward the Tropical zone.
This could affect the capacities of the reservoirs in other thermal
zones.
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank FAPESP (Fundação de Amparo
à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo) for funding this work through
 G.L.A.F. Arce et al. / Ecological Modelling 272 (2014) 59–67
project 2011/19920-7. The authors would like to acknowledge the
English language peer-review provided by FDCT – Foundation for
Scientific and Technological Development.
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