Business Economics

(SM5301)
Project on

Submitted by:

YASHI SHEKHAR (401706026)

BIR ANANT SINGH (401706007)

Course: BE-MBA (2017-22)

Submitted to:

DR. PIYUSH VERMA

 A Brief about the

In this project of demand forecasting, we are trying to forecast the demand of the
analysed the data for the month of September 2020.

Objective:
Our aim is to forecast the demand of internet data usage of a Random individual
month of September 2020 and forecasting for the next month i.e october 2020.

Occupations that we selected were:

1. Student
2. Working official –work from home/ work from office
3. Businessman/ woman
4. Housewife
5. Retired
Determining the factor for bifurcation:

Firstly, we collected the data from some random individuals with different age gro
their occupation and not on the basis of the age groups. The reason being that th
than with respect to the age groups.
For ex- Most of the people who were considered, were lying in the range of 18-28
were in 50-55 age group.
Selecting suitable method:
For the complete set of data we applied simple average method and moving aver
methods and found that simple average method gave more accurate results.
For the bifurcated data we used exponential smoothing method as the data was s
occupations.
𝐹_(𝑡+1)=𝛼𝐴_𝑡+(1−𝛼) 𝐹_𝑡
Collecting the data:
We collected the data with the help of google forms with a total sample size of 11
Attaching the link to the form below:
https://forms.gle/MsTeY5FZZHe97vgs7
https://forms.gle/MsTeY5FZZHe97vgs7
 A Brief about the Project

orecast the demand of the internet data usage in the COVID-19 situation. For this purpose we

ge of a Random individual of the next month on the basis of his occupation considering the
month i.e october 2020.

duals with different age groups and occupations. We decided to bifurcate them on the basis of
s. The reason being that there was more data available, with respect to occupations rather
lying in the range of 18-28 or above 55 and very less data was available from the people who

e method and moving average method both, then we compared the results from the two
more accurate results.
g method as the data was short term and did not have any trend in the data of different

)=𝛼𝐴_𝑡+(1−𝛼) 𝐹_𝑡 , where 0≤𝛼≤1

th a total sample size of 114 samples.

Your Occupation/Designation Name Age Native Place
Businessman/woman Agam singh 29-39 Chandigarh
Businessman/woman Amandeep kaur 29-39 Mohali
Businessman/woman Gobind anmol chopra 40-50 Delhi (NCR)
Businessman/woman Gurinder singh 29-39 Mohali
Businessman/woman Gursimran 40-50 Mohali
Businessman/woman Harkanwal kaur 29-39 Chandigarh
Businessman/woman Inder mohan singh 50-55 Chandigarh
Businessman/woman Iqbal singh kochhar above 55 Chandigarh
Businessman/woman Jasman kochhar 29-39 Mohali
Businessman/woman Jay kapoor 18-28 Delhi (NCR)
Businessman/woman Kailashi 29-39 Agra
Businessman/woman Poonam 40-50 Delhi (NCR)
Businessman/woman Rajeev Kakran 50-55 Delhi (NCR)
Businessman/woman Surinder singh juneja 40-50 Delhi (NCR)
Housewife Amarjeet kaur 50-55 Chandigarh
Housewife Anu Sharma 40-50 Agra
Housewife Aparna Jaura 40-50 Agra
Housewife Archana Sharma 50-55 Agra
Housewife Deepshikha 50-55 Delhi (NCR)
Housewife Harpreet kaur 40-50 Chandigarh
Housewife Kalpana Jethi 50-55 Agra
Housewife Megha Sharma 29-39 Delhi (NCR)
Housewife Neena above 55 Mohali
Housewife Rachna Bhardwaj 40-50 Jaipur
Housewife Rachna Bhardwaj 40-50 Jaipur
Housewife Rhythm jain 40-50 Agra
Housewife samiksha shekhar 40-50 Delhi (NCR)
Housewife Shubhi Singhania 40-50 Delhi (NCR)
Housewife Sueksha Bhardwaj 40-50 Delhi (NCR)
Housewife Yashwika 40-50 Patiala
Retired Amrit Khurana above 55 Mohali
Retired Amritpal singh chowdry above 55 Chandigarh
Retired Ashok bajaj above 55 Chandigarh
Retired D M Singh above 55 Mohali
Retired Dilpreet above 55 Mohali
Retired Dr. KP Sharma above 55 Delhi (NCR)
Retired Gurdial singh above 55 Chandigarh
Retired H S khurana above 55 Mohali
Retired Harmeet singh above 55 Chandigarh
Retired Jatinder singh above 55 Chandigarh
Retired Kavita above 55 Chandigarh
Retired Mankinder above 55 Chandigarh
Retired Nargis bakshi above 55 Mohali
Retired Om Sharma above 55 Delhi (NCR)
Retired Rama thakural above 55 Mohali
Retired SK Sharma above 55 Agra
Retired Sunny binder above 55 Mohali
Retired Vidyawati above 55 Delhi (NCR)
Student Aarushi sudan 18-28 Patiala
Student Aayansh shekhar 18-28 Delhi (NCR)
Student Abhilasha 18-28 Delhi (NCR)
Student Abhinav Chauhan 18-28 Delhi (NCR)
Student Aditya Mahendroo 18-28 Chandigarh
Student Aditya Narayan Mishra 18-28 Agra
Student Anant ki bund 18-28 Patiala
Student Avantika Kakran 18-28 Delhi (NCR)
Student Bir anant singh 18-28 Chandigarh
Student Bir anant singh 18-28 Chandigarh
Student Bir anant singh 18-28 Chandigarh
Student Diksha Bathla 18-28 Ludhiana
Student Divya mittal 18-28 Bathinda
Student Dr. Kartikey Sharma 18-28 Agra
Student Gitansh Jain 18-28 Ludhiana
Student Goyam 18-28 Ludhiana
Student Harman Juneja 18-28 Mohali
Student Harman kaur 18-28 Mohali
Student Jaskirat kaur 18-28 Mohali
Student Kamakshi Behl 18-28 Amritsar
Student Kushara Tandon 18-28 Patiala
Student lakshyata chaudhary 18-28 Agra
Student Maheep 18-28 Mohali
Student Naina Kapoor 18-28 Patiala
Student Paridhi Bhardwaj 18-28 jaipur
Student Poorvi Bhardwaj 18-28 Jaipur
Student Shaurya Chaudhary 18-28 Agra
Student Shubham Patel 18-28 Agra
Student Trikush 18-28 Ludhiana
Student Vaibhav Mishra 18-28 Varanasi
Student Yaman Goyal 18-28 Chandigarh
Student yasharth kabeer 18-28 Delhi (NCR)
Student Yashi Shekhar 18-28 Delhi (NCR)
Student Yashit Jain 18-28 Patiala
Student Yogen aggarwal 18-28 Patiala
Student yukta mittal 18-28 bathinda
Student Yuyutsu 18-28 Patiala
Working official- Work from home Abhishek soty 29-39 Mumbai
Working official- Work from home Arshpreet kaur 29-39 Chandigarh
Working official- Work from home Arvinder 40-50 Chandigarh
Working official- Work from home Astha Sharma 18-28 Agra
Working official- Work from home Eshika Agarwal 18-28 Agra
Working official- Work from home Japneet kaur 29-39 Mohali
Working official- Work from home Jatinder Kaur 40-50 Mohali
Working official- Work from home Naman Bansal 29-39 Delhi (NCR)
Working official- Work from home Parul Sharma 29-39 Mumbai
Working official- Work from home Pragati 29-39 Delhi (NCR)
Working official- Work from home Pranav Pandey 29-39 Delhi (NCR)
Working official- Work from home Prashant Bhardwaj 40-50 Delhi (NCR)
Working official- Work from home rahul jain 18-28 Chandigarh
Working official- Work from home Roopshi Bhardwaj 18-28 Delhi (NCR)
Working official- Work from home Swati Joshi 29-39 Dehradun
Working official- Work from home Swati Nehra 18-28 Agra
Working official- work from ofiice Abhimanyu 18-28 Delhi (NCR)
Working official- work from ofiice Anirudh Sharma 18-28 Delhi (NCR)
Working official- work from ofiice Archita gupta 18-28 Delhi (NCR)
Working official- work from ofiice Dr. Chandrashekhar Sharma above 55 Agra
Working official- work from ofiice Kapil Sharma 29-39 Delhi (NCR)
Working official- work from ofiice Karun kataria 29-39 Chandigarh
Working official- work from ofiice Prakhar Sharma 29-39 Agra
Working official- work from ofiice Prasoon Bhardwaj 40-50 Jaipur
Working official- work from ofiice Raj Shekhar Sharma 40-50 Agra
Working official- work from ofiice Sanjeev 50-55 Delhi (NCR)
Working official- work from ofiice Shashank 29-39 Delhi (NCR)
Working official- work from ofiice Shrikant Sharma 40-50 Delhi (NCR)
Working official- work from ofiice Shubham Nehra 18-28 Agra

Method Used : Simple Average

Online classes and studies Simple Moving Average N=3
0
0
0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
 0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
15 0
5 5
20 7
15 13
15 13
20 17
20 17
40 18
20 27
20 27
0 27
5 13
15 8
10 7
10 10
15 12
30 12
25 18
30 23
15 28
15 23
10 20
25 13
15 17
10 17
5 17
20 10
10 12
10 12
15 13
15 12
10 13
20 13
15 15
10 15
10 15
20 12
0 13
0 10
0 7
0 0
0 0
5 0
5 2
0 3
0 3
10 2
 0 3
0 3
0 3
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0

e Average 5
office work Simple Moving Average N=3 entertainment
20 5
10 5
15 15
20 15 10
5 15 5
15 13 5
30 13 10
20 17 5
30 22 5
10 27 5
25 20 5
25 22 25
20 20 15
15 23 10
0 20 35
0 12 15
0 5 15
0 0 15
0 0 15
0 0 20
0 0 15
0 0 10
0 0 20
0 0 15
0 0 10
0 0 15
0 0 10
0 0 15
0 0 5
0 0 10
0 0 5
0 0 5
10 0 5
5 3 30
0 5 30
0 5 5
0 2 5
0 0 5
5 0 15
5 2 10
0 3 20
0 3 20
 0 2 20
0 0 5
0 0 15
0 0 5
0 0 20
0 0 5
0 0 25
0 0 5
0 0 20
0 0 30
0 0 15
30 0 30
5 10 10
0 12 20
0 12 5
0 2 25
0 0 25
5 0 35
0 2 10
0 2 5
5 2 50
5 2 50
5 3 50
0 5 30
0 3 25
30 2 40
0 10 10
0 10 10
0 10 25
0 0 5
0 0 10
0 0 5
0 0 10
0 0 5
5 0 20
0 2 5
0 2 5
0 2 30
0 0 25
0 0 10
0 0 10
0 0 10
30 0 40
20 10 10
25 17 5
35 25 5
20 27 5
25 27 10
25 27 5
40 23 5
20 30 15
20 28 5
35 27 25
15 25 5
15 23 5
15 22 5
25 15 5
40 18 20
20 27 30
40 28 30
10 33 5
15 23 5
0 22 5
20 8 5
10 12 5
15 10 5
10 15 5
10 12 10
50 12 0
25 23 5
5 28 5
5 27 0
12

9 14
Simple Moving Average N=3 other activities Simple Moving Average N=3
10
5
15
8 10 10
10 5 10
10 10 10
7 15 8
7 20 10
7 15 15
7 5 17
5 0 13
5 15 7
12 15 7
15 10 10
17 10 13
20 5 12
20 5 8
22 5 7
15 5 5
15 5 5
17 5 5
17 5 5
15 5 5
15 5 5
15 5 5
15 5 5
13 5 5
12 5 5
13 5 5
10 5 5
10 0 5
7 5 3
7 5 3
5 10 3
13 10 7
22 0 8
22 5 7
13 5 5
5 5 3
8 5 5
10 10 5
15 5 7
17 5 7
20 0 7
15 25 3
13 5 10
8 10 10
13 0 13
10 5 5
17 5 5
12 10 3
17 35 7
18 5 17
22 5 17
25 5 15
18 20 5
20 20 10
12 20 15
17 20 20
18 5 20
28 0 15
23 0 8
17 5 2
22 5 2
35 30 3
50 0 13
43 0 12
35 15 10
32 5 5
25 5 7
20 0 8
15 10 3
13 5 5
13 0 5
7 5 5
8 0 3
7 10 2
12 5 5
10 0 5
10 5 5
13 5 3
20 5 3
22 5 5
15 5 5
10 5 5
20 5 5
20 5 5
18 5 5
7 5 5
5 5 5
7 5 5
7 5 5
7 5 5
8 5 5
8 10 5
15 0 7
12 5 5
12 0 5
5 0 2
5 15 2
10 5 5
18 15 7
27 0 12
22 5 7
13 0 7
5 5 2
5 10 3
5 5 5
5 5 7
5 5 7
7 10 5
5 15 7
5 0 10
3 5 8
3 7

7
Your Occupation/Designation Name Age Native Place
Businessman/woman Agam singh 29-39 Chandigarh
Businessman/woman Amandeep kaur 29-39 Mohali
Businessman/woman Gobind anmol chopra 40-50 Delhi (NCR)
Businessman/woman Gurinder singh 29-39 Mohali
Businessman/woman Gursimran 40-50 Mohali
Businessman/woman Harkanwal kaur 29-39 Chandigarh
Businessman/woman Inder mohan singh 50-55 Chandigarh
Businessman/woman Iqbal singh kochhar above 55 Chandigarh
Businessman/woman Jasman kochhar 29-39 Mohali
Businessman/woman Jay kapoor 18-28 Delhi (NCR)
Businessman/woman Kailashi 29-39 Agra
Businessman/woman Poonam 40-50 Delhi (NCR)
Businessman/woman Rajeev Kakran 50-55 Delhi (NCR)
Businessman/woman Surinder singh juneja 40-50 Delhi (NCR)

BUSINESS MAN / WOMEN

Online classes and studies A(t) Exponential (a=0.5) F(t)
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0

Exponential Smoothing
1
1
1 Actual
Value

0 Forecast
0
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Data Point
 office work A(t) Exponential (a=0.5) F(t)
20 20
20 20.00
25 20.00
20 22.50
20 21.25
20 20.63
20 20.31
20 20.16
20 20.08
15 20.04
20 17.52
15 18.76
20 16.88
20 18.44
19.22

N 14

MAD 1.85
MSE 6.51
Actual MAPE 0.10
Forecast

Exponential Smoothing
30
20 Actual
Value

10 Forecast
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Data Point
error A(t)-F(t) Absolute value of error |A(t)-F(t)|
0.00 0
0.00 0
5.00 5.00
-2.50 2.5
-1.25 1.25
-0.63 0.63
-0.31 0.31
-0.16 0.16
-0.08 0.08
-5.04 5.04
2.48 2.48
-3.76 3.76
3.12 3.12
1.56 1.56

-1.56 25.88
Square of error A(t)-F(t)^2 |(A(t)-F(t))/A(t)|
0.00 0
0.00 0
25.00 0.20
6.25 0.13
1.56 0.06
0.39 0.03
0.10 0.02
0.02 0.01
0.01 0.00
25.39 0.34
6.15 0.12
14.14 0.25
9.74 0.16
2.43 0.08

91.18 1.39

20 Expone
15

Value
10
5
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Data P
 entertainment A(t) Exponential (a=0.5) F(t) error A(t)-F(t)
5 5 0.00
10 5.00 5.00
5 7.50 -2.50
10 6.25 3.75
10 8.13 1.88
10 9.06 0.94
10 9.53 0.47
15 9.77 5.23
15 12.38 2.62
10 13.69 -3.69
5 11.85 -6.85
10 8.42 1.58
10 9.21 0.79
5 9.61 -4.61
7.30
4.61

N 14

MAD 2.85
MSE 12.07
MAPE 0.37

20 Exponential Smoothing
15
Actual
Value

10
Forecast
5
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314
Data Point
Absolute value of error |A(t)-F(t)| Square of error A(t)-F(t)^2
0.00 0
5.00 25.00
2.50 6.25
3.75 14.06
1.88 3.52
0.94 0.88
0.47 0.22
5.23 27.40
2.62 6.85
3.69 13.63
6.85 46.86
1.58 2.49
0.79 0.62
4.61 21.21

39.89 168.99
|(A(t)-F(t))/A(t)| other activities A(t)
0 5
0.5 10
0.50 10
0.375 5
0.1875 5
0.09375 5
0.05 5
0.35 5
0.17 10
0.37 10
1.37 5
0.16 10
0.08 5
0.92 10

5.12

MAD
MSE
MAPE

Exponential Smoothing
12
10
8
Actual
Value

6
4 Forecast
2
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Data Point
 Exponential (a=0.5) F(t) error A(t)-F(t) Absolute value of error |A(t)-F(t)|
5.00 0.00 0.00
5.00 5.00 5.00
7.50 2.50 2.50
8.75 -3.75 3.75
6.88 -1.88 1.88
5.94 -0.94 0.94
5.47 -0.47 0.47
5.23 -0.23 0.23
5.12 4.88 4.88
7.56 2.44 2.44
8.78 -3.78 3.78
6.89 3.11 3.11
8.44 -3.44 3.44
6.72 3.28 3.28
8.36
6.72 35.70

14

2.55
9.03
0.36

onential Smoothing

Actual
Forecast

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Data Point
Square of error A(t)-F(t)^2 |(A(t)-F(t))/A(t)|
0.00 0.00
25.00 0.50
6.25 0.25
14.06 0.75
3.52 0.38
0.88 0.19
0.22 0.09
0.05 0.05
23.84 0.49
5.96 0.24
14.28 0.76
9.67 0.31
11.87 0.69
10.74 0.33

126.35 5.02
Your Occupation/DesignatioName Age Native Place
Housewife Amarjeet kaur 50-55 Chandigarh
Housewife Anu Sharma 40-50 Agra
Housewife Aparna Jaura 40-50 Agra
Housewife Archana Sharma 50-55 Agra
Housewife Deepshikha 50-55 Delhi (NCR)
Housewife Harpreet kaur 40-50 Chandigarh
Housewife Kalpana Jethi 50-55 Agra
Housewife Megha Sharma 29-39 Delhi (NCR)
Housewife Neena above 55 Mohali
Housewife Rachna Bhardwaj 40-50 Jaipur
Housewife Rachna Bhardwaj 40-50 Jaipur
Housewife Rhythm jain 40-50 Agra
Housewife samiksha shekhar 40-50 Delhi (NCR)
Housewife Shubhi Singhania 40-50 Delhi (NCR)
Housewife Sueksha Bhardwaj 40-50 Delhi (NCR)
Housewife Yashwika 40-50 Patiala

HOUSEWIFE
 entertainment A(t) Exponential (a=0.5) F(t) error A(t)-F(t)
30 30 0.00
25 30.00 -5.00
25 27.50 -2.50
20 26.25 -6.25
20 23.13 -3.13
20 21.56 -1.56
20 20.78 -0.78
15 20.39 -5.39
20 17.70 2.30
15 18.85 -3.85
15 16.92 -1.92
15 15.96 -0.96
15 15.48 -0.48
15 15.24 -0.24
10 15.12 -5.12
10 12.56 -2.56
11.28

N 16 -37.44

MAD 2.63
MSE 10.62
MAPE 0.16

Exponential Smoothing
40
30
20 Actual
Value

10 Forecast
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15

Data Point
Absolute value of error |A(t)-F(t)| Square of error A(t)-F(t)^2 |(A(t)-F(t))/A(t)|
0.00 0.00 0
5.00 25.00 0.20
2.50 6.25 0.10
6.25 39.06 0.31
3.13 9.77 0.16
1.56 2.44 0.08
0.78 0.61 0.04
5.39 29.06 0.36
2.30 5.31 0.12
3.85 14.80 0.26
1.92 3.70 0.13
0.96 0.93 0.06
0.48 0.23 0.03
0.24 0.06 0.02
5.12 26.22 0.51
2.56 6.55 0.26

42.05 169.99 2.63

 other activities A(t) Exponential (a=0.5) F(t) error A(t)-F(t)
10 10.000 0.000
5 10.000 -5.000
5 7.500 -2.500
5 6.250 -1.250
5 5.625 -0.625
5 5.313 -0.313
5 5.156 -0.156
5 5.078 -0.078
5 5.039 -0.039
5 5.020 -0.020
5 5.010 -0.010
5 5.005 -0.005
5 5.002 -0.002
5 5.001 -0.001
5 5.001 -0.001
5 5.000 0.000
5.00

N 16 -10.000

MAD 0.62
MSE 2.08
MAPE 0.12

Exponential Smoothing
12

8
Actual
Value

4
Forecast
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15

Data Point
Absolute value of error |A(t)-F(t)| Square of error A(t)-F(t)^2 |(A(t)-F(t))/A(t)|
0.000 0.00 0.000
5.000 25.00 1.000
2.500 6.25 0.500
1.250 1.56 0.250
0.625 0.39 0.125
0.313 0.10 0.063
0.156 0.02 0.031
0.078 0.01 0.016
0.039 0.00 0.008
0.020 0.00 0.004
0.010 0.00 0.002
0.005 0.00 0.001
0.002 0.00 0.000
0.001 0.00 0.000
0.001 0.00 0.000
0.000 0.00 0.000

10.000 33.333 2.000

Your Occupation/Designation Name Age Native Place
Retired Amrit Khurana above 55 Mohali
Retired Amritpal singh chowdabove 55 Chandigarh
Retired Ashok bajaj above 55 Chandigarh
Retired D M Singh above 55 Mohali
Retired Dilpreet above 55 Mohali
Retired Dr. KP Sharma above 55 Delhi (NCR)
Retired Gurdial singh above 55 Chandigarh
Retired H S khurana above 55 Mohali
Retired Harmeet singh above 55 Chandigarh
Retired Jatinder singh above 55 Chandigarh
Retired Kavita above 55 Chandigarh
Retired Mankinder above 55 Chandigarh
Retired Nargis bakshi above 55 Mohali
Retired Om Sharma above 55 Delhi (NCR)
Retired Rama thakural above 55 Mohali
Retired SK Sharma above 55 Agra
Retired Sunny binder above 55 Mohali
Retired Vidyawati above 55 Delhi (NCR)

RETIRED
Exponen
15
10

Value
5
0
1 3 5 7

Dat
 office work A(t) Exponential (a=0.5) F(t) error A(t)-F(t)
5 5 0.00
0 5.00 -5.00
10 2.50 7.50
5 6.25 -1.25
5 5.63 -0.63
0 5.31 -5.31
0 2.66 -2.66
0 1.33 -1.33
5 0.66 4.34
5 2.83 2.17
10 3.92 6.08
0 6.96 -6.96
0 3.48 -3.48
5 1.74 3.26
0 3.37 -3.37
0 1.68 -1.68
10 0.84 9.16
5 5.42 -0.42
5.21

N 18 0.42

MAD 3.59
MSE 19.45
MAPE 0.26

Exponential Smoothing
15
10
Actual
Value

5
Forecast
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17

Data Point
Absolute value of error |A(t)-F(t)| Square of error A(t)-F(t)^2 |(A(t)-F(t))/A(t)|
0.00 0.00 0.00
5.00 25.00
7.50 56.25 0.75
1.25 1.56 0.25
0.63 0.39 0.13
5.31 28.22
2.66 7.06
1.33 1.76
4.34 18.80 0.87
2.17 4.70 0.43
6.08 37.01 0.61
6.96 48.41
3.48 12.10
3.26 10.63 0.65
3.37 11.36
1.68 2.84
9.16 83.86 0.92
0.42 0.18 0.08

64.59 350.14 4.69

Exp
40
30
20

Value
10
0
1
 entertainment A(t) Exponential (a=0.5) F(t) error A(t)-F(t)
5 5 0.00
5 5.00 0.00
5 5.00 0.00
30 5.00 25.00
30 17.50 12.50
5 23.75 -18.75
5 14.38 -9.38
5 9.69 -4.69
15 7.34 7.66
10 11.17 -1.17
20 10.59 9.41
20 15.29 4.71
20 17.65 2.35
5 18.82 -13.82
15 11.91 3.09
5 13.46 -8.46
20 9.23 10.77
5 14.61 -9.61
9.81

N 18 9.61

MAD 7.85
MSE 105.53
MAPE 0.91

Exponential Smoothing
40
30
20 Actual
Value

10 Forecast
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17

Data Point
Absolute value of error |A(t)-F(t)| Square of error A(t)-F(t)^2 |(A(t)-F(t))/A(t)|
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
25.00 625.00 0.83
12.50 156.25 0.42
18.75 351.56 3.75
9.38 87.89 1.88
4.69 21.97 0.94
7.66 58.62 0.51
1.17 1.37 0.12
9.41 88.62 0.47
4.71 22.16 0.24
2.35 5.54 0.12
13.82 191.08 2.76
3.09 9.54 0.21
8.46 71.50 1.69
10.77 116.04 0.54
9.61 92.43 1.92

141.37 1899.57 16.39

 other activities A(t) Exponential (a=0.5) F(t) error A(t)-F(t)
0 0 0.00
5 0.00 5.00
5 2.50 2.50
10 3.75 6.25
10 6.88 3.13
0 8.44 -8.44
5 4.22 0.78
5 4.61 0.39
5 4.80 0.20
5 4.90 0.10
10 4.95 5.05
5 7.48 -2.48
5 6.24 -1.24
0 5.62 -5.62
25 2.81 22.19
5 13.90 -8.90
10 9.45 0.55
0 9.73 -9.73
4.86

N 18 9.73

MAD 4.58
MSE 49.08
MAPE 0.37

Exponential Smoothing
30
20
Actual
Value

10
0 Forecast
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17

Data Point
Absolute value of error |A(t)-F(t)| Square of error A(t)-F(t)^2 |(A(t)-F(t))/A(t)|
0.00 0.00
5.00 25.00 1.00
2.50 6.25 0.50
6.25 39.06 0.63
3.13 9.77 0.31
8.44 71.19
0.78 0.61 0.16
0.39 0.15 0.08
0.20 0.04 0.04
0.10 0.01 0.02
5.05 25.49 0.50
2.48 6.13 0.50
1.24 1.53 0.25
5.62 31.57
22.19 492.42 0.89
8.90 79.29 1.78
0.55 0.30 0.05
9.73 94.60

82.53 883.42 6.70

Your Occupation/Designation Name Age Native Place
Student Aarushi sudan 18-28 Patiala
Student Aayansh shekhar 18-28 Delhi (NCR)
Student Abhilasha 18-28 Delhi (NCR)
Student Abhinav Chauhan 18-28 Delhi (NCR)
Student Aditya Mahendroo 18-28 Chandigarh
Student Aditya Narayan Mishra 18-28 Agra
Student Anant ki bund 18-28 Patiala
Student Avantika Kakran 18-28 Delhi (NCR)
Student Bir anant singh 18-28 Chandigarh
Student Diksha Bathla 18-28 Ludhiana
Student Divya mittal 18-28 Bathinda
Student Dr. Kartikey Sharma 18-28 Agra
Student Gitansh Jain 18-28 Ludhiana
Student Goyam 18-28 Ludhiana
Student Harman Juneja 18-28 Mohali
Student Harman kaur 18-28 Mohali
Student Jaskirat kaur 18-28 Mohali
Student Kamakshi Behl 18-28 Amritsar
Student Kushara Tandon 18-28 Patiala
Student lakshyata chaudhary 18-28 Agra
Student Maheep 18-28 Mohali
Student Naina Kapoor 18-28 Patiala
Student Paridhi Bhardwaj 18-28 jaipur
Student Poorvi Bhardwaj 18-28 Jaipur
Student Shaurya Chaudhary 18-28 Agra
Student Shubham Patel 18-28 Agra
Student Trikush 18-28 Ludhiana
Student Vaibhav Mishra 18-28 Varanasi
Student Yaman Goyal 18-28 Chandigarh
Student yasharth kabeer 18-28 Delhi (NCR)
Student Yashi Shekhar 18-28 Delhi (NCR)
Student Yashit Jain 18-28 Patiala
Student Yogen aggarwal 18-28 Patiala
Student yukta mittal 18-28 bathinda
Student Yuyutsu 18-28 Patiala

STUDENTS
Online classes and studies A(t) Exponential (a=0.5) F(t)
15 15.00
5 15.00
20 10.00
15 15.00
15 15.00
20 15.00
20 17.50
40 18.75
20 29.38
5 24.69
15 14.84
10 14.92
10 12.46
15 11.23
30 13.12
25 21.56
30 23.28
15 26.64
15 20.82
10 17.91
25 13.95
15 19.48
10 17.24
5 13.62
20 9.31
10 14.65
10 12.33
15 11.16
15 13.08
10 14.04
20 12.02
15 16.01
10 15.51
10 12.75
20 11.38
15.69

Exponential Smoothing
40
Actual
Value

0 Forecast
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34

Data Point
office work A(t) Exponential (a=0.5) F(t)
0 0.00
0 0.00
0 0.00
0 0.00
0 0.00
30 0.00
5 15.00
0 10.00
0 5.00
5 2.50
0 3.75
0 1.88
5 0.94
5 2.97
5 3.98
0 4.49
0 2.25
15 1.12
0 8.06
0 4.03
0 2.02
0 1.01
0 0.50
0 0.25
0 0.13
0 0.06
5 0.03
0 2.52
0 1.26
0 0.63
0 0.31
0 0.16
0 0.08
0 0.04
20 0.02
10.01

Exponential Smoothing
40
20 Actual
Value

0 Forecast
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34

Data Point
entertainment A(t) Exponential (a=0.5) F(t)
25 25.00
5 25.00
20 15.00
30 17.50
15 23.75
30 19.38
10 24.69
20 17.34
5 18.67
35 11.84
10 23.42
5 16.71
50 10.85
50 30.43
50 40.21
30 45.11
25 37.55
40 31.28
10 35.64
10 22.82
25 16.41
5 20.70
10 12.85
5 11.43
10 8.21
5 9.11
20 7.05
5 13.53
5 9.26
30 7.13
25 18.57
10 21.78
10 15.89
10 12.95
40 11.47
25.74

Exponential Smoothing
40
Actual
Value

0 Forecast
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34

Data Point
other activities A(t) Exponential (a=0.5) F(t)
5 5.00
5 5.00
10 5.00
35 7.50
5 21.25
5 13.13
5 9.06
20 7.03
20 13.52
5 16.76
0 10.88
0 5.44
5 2.72
5 3.86
30 4.43
0 17.21
0 8.61
15 4.30
5 9.65
5 7.33
0 6.16
10 3.08
5 6.54
0 5.77
5 2.89
0 3.94
10 1.97
5 5.99
0 5.49
5 2.75
5 3.87
5 4.44
5 4.72
5 4.86
5 4.93
4.96

40
20 Actual
Value

0 Forecast

Data Point
Exponential Smoothing
Your Occupation/Designation Name Age Native Place
Working official- Work from home Abhishek soty 29-39 Mumbai
Working official- Work from home Arshpreet kaur 29-39 Chandigarh
Working official- Work from home Arvinder 40-50 Chandigarh
Working official- Work from home Astha Sharma 18-28 Agra
Working official- Work from home Eshika Agarwal 18-28 Agra
Working official- Work from home Japneet kaur 29-39 Mohali
Working official- Work from home Jatinder Kaur 40-50 Mohali
Working official- Work from home Naman Bansal 29-39 Delhi (NCR)
Working official- Work from home Parul Sharma 29-39 Mumbai
Working official- Work from home Pragati 29-39 Delhi (NCR)
Working official- Work from home Pranav Pandey 29-39 Delhi (NCR)
Working official- Work from home Prashant Bhardwaj 40-50 Delhi (NCR)
Working official- Work from home rahul jain 18-28 Chandigarh
Working official- Work from home Roopshi Bhardwaj 18-28 Delhi (NCR)
Working official- Work from home Swati Joshi 29-39 Dehradun
Working official- Work from home Swati Nehra 18-28 Agra

WORKING OFFICIAL - WORK FROM

HOME

Your Occupation/Designation Name Age Native Place

Working official- work from ofiice Abhimanyu 18-28 Delhi (NCR)
Working official- work from ofiice Anirudh Sharma 18-28 Delhi (NCR)
Working official- work from ofiice Archita gupta 18-28 Delhi (NCR)
Working official- work from ofiice Dr. Chandrashekhar S above 55 Agra
Working official- work from ofiice Kapil Sharma 29-39 Delhi (NCR)
Working official- work from ofiice Karun kataria 29-39 Chandigarh
Working official- work from ofiice Prakhar Sharma 29-39 Agra
Working official- work from ofiice Prasoon Bhardwaj 40-50 Jaipur
Working official- work from ofiice Raj Shekhar Sharma 40-50 Agra
Working official- work from ofiice Sanjeev 50-55 Delhi (NCR)
Working official- work from ofiice Shashank 29-39 Delhi (NCR)
Working official- work from ofiice Shrikant Sharma 40-50 Delhi (NCR)
Working official- work from ofiice Shubham Nehra 18-28 Agra
WORKING OFFICIAL - WORK FROM
OFFICE
office work Exponential (a=0.5)
20 20.00
25 20.00
35 22.50
20 28.75
25 24.38
25 24.69
40 24.84
20 32.42
20 26.21
35 23.11
15 29.05
15 22.03
15 18.51
25 16.76
40 20.88
20 30.44
25.22

Exponential Smoothing
60
40
Actual
Value

20
0 Forecast
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15

Data Point

office work Exponential (a=0.5)

40 40.00
10 40.00
15 25.00
30 20.00
20 25.00
10 22.50
15 16.25
10 15.63
10 12.81
50 11.41
25 30.70
15 27.85
15 21.43
 18.21

Exponential Smoothing
60
Value 40 Actual
20 Forecast
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213
Data Point
entertainment Exponential (a=0.5) other activities
10 10.00 5
5 10.00 5
5 7.50 5
5 6.25 5
10 5.63 5
5 7.81 5
5 6.41 5
15 5.70 5
5 10.35 5
25 7.68 10
5 16.34 0
5 10.67 5
5 7.83 0
5 6.42 0
20 5.71 15
30 12.85 5
21.43

Exponential Smoothing Exponential Smoothing

40 20

20 Actual 10 A

Value
Value

Forecast F
0 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15

Data Point Data Point

entertainment Exponential (a=0.5) other activities

20 20.00 15
15 20.00 0
10 17.50 5
5 13.75 0
5 9.38 5
5 7.19 10
5 6.09 5
5 5.55 5
10 5.27 5
5 7.64 10
5 6.32 15
5 5.66 0
5 5.33 5
 5.16

Exponential Smoothing Exponential Smoothing

30 20
20 Actual 15
Value

Value
10 10
Forecast
5
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Data Point
Data Point
 Exponential (a=0.5)
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
7.50
3.75
4.38
2.19
1.09
8.05
6.52

ntial Smoothing

Actual
Forecast
5 7 9 11 13 15

Data Point

Exponential (a=0.5)
15.00
15.00
7.50
6.25
3.13
4.06
7.03
6.02
5.51
5.25
7.63
11.31
5.66
 5.33

onential Smoothing

Actual
Forecast

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Data Point
 Analysis of the Pr

We started the journey of Forecasting by deciding the topic which is “INTER

making the google form. Now after bifurcating the data and analysing the e
If a random individual who comes to know about the internet data that he
the data forecasted from September 2020 we can say that-
If he/she is a businessman/ woman then the forecast reveals that for the n
0 GB- Online classes and studies
18.29 GB- for office work
12.52 GB- for entertainment
11.27 GB- for other activities
If she is a Housewife then the forecast reveals that for the next month the
0 GB- Online classes and studies
0 GB- for office work
9.62 GB- for entertainment
5 GB- for other activities
If he/she is a Retired then the forecast reveals that for the next month the
0 GB- Online classes and studies
5.21 GB- for office work
9.81 GB- for entertainment
4.86 GB- for other activities
If he/she is a Student then the forecast reveals that for the next month the

15.69 GB- Online classes and studies

10.01 GB- for office work
25.74 GB- for entertainment
4.96 GB- for other activities

If he/she is a work from office official then the forecast reveals that for the
If he/she is a Student then the forecast reveals that for the next month the
15.69 GB- Online classes and studies
10.01 GB- for office work
25.74 GB- for entertainment
4.96 GB- for other activities
If he/she is a work from office official then the forecast reveals that for the
0 GB- Online classes and studies
25.22 GB- for office work
21.43 GB- for entertainment
6.52 GB- for other activities
If he/she is a work from home official then the forecast reveals that for the
0 GB- Online classes and studies
18.21 GB- for office work
7.67 GB- for entertainment
5.33 GB- for other activities
REASON BEHIND CHOOSING EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING WITH a=0.5 :

a=0.5 ensures that the forecast is responsive and stable at the same time.
Exponential smoothing is easy to use as only three pieces of data are requir
period. Second, it needs the actual value for that time period. And third, it
the weight given to the most recent data values.

Exponential smoothing is best used for forecasts that are short-term and in
like this are accurate when a reasonable amount of continuity between the
for short-term forecasting.
An exponential smoothing method produces a forecast for one period ahea
more periods ahead can then be generated. The forecast is considered accu
projections and what actually occurred.

LIMITATION
The only limitations was that this method cannot handle trends. if we are s
then this method would not have worked well.
 Analysis of the Project

g the topic which is “INTERNET CONSUMPTION DURING COVID-19” and then

he data and analysing the excel sheet, we came to a conclusion that:
t the internet data that he would be using in the month of October 2020 based on
n say that-
ecast reveals that for the next month the value would be :

at for the next month the value would be:

at for the next month the value would be :

hat for the next month the value would be :

orecast reveals that for the next month the value would be :
hat for the next month the value would be :

orecast reveals that for the next month the value would be :

orecast reveals that for the next month the value would be :

OOTHING WITH a=0.5 :

stable at the same time.

ee pieces of data are required. First, it needs the forecast for the most recent time
time period. And third, it needs the value of the smoothing constant, that reflects

that are short-term and in the absence of seasonal or cyclical variations. Methods

of continuity between the past and future can be assumed. As such, it’s best suited
orecast for one period ahead. Using the trend projection technique, forecasts for
forecast is considered accurate as it accounts for the difference between actual

t handle trends. if we are supposed to have the forecasting for longer time periods