Fundamental of Hypothesis Testing:
One-Sample Tests
• Hypothesis Testing Methodology
• Z Test of Hypothesis for the mean (σ Known)
• One-Tail Tests
• t Test of Hypothesis for the mean (σ Unknown)
• Z Test of Hypothesis for the Proportion
• Application in PH Stat Excel
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Learning Outcome
• To understand about the basic concept of a
hypothesis testing on one sample
• Calculate and interpret the result of one-sample
hypothesis-testing related problems
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10.1 HYPOTHESIS TESTING METHODOLOGY
A hypothesis is a claim (assumption) about a
population parameter through sampling
It typically begins with some theory, claim, or
assertion about a particular parameter of a
population
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10.1 HYPOTHESIS TESTING METHODOLOGY
Example 1 :
The population mean age is μ = 50
The mean monthly cell phone bill of this city is μ = $52
The proportion of adults in this city with cell phones is π = .68
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10.1 HYPOTHESIS TESTING METHODOLOGY
Null Hypothesis (H0) :
• It is an initial allegation about the statements that may be
accepted or rejected.
• It refers to the status quo or the current belief in a situation
• Always contains “=” , “≤” or “” sign
• May or may not be rejected
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10.1 HYPOTHESIS TESTING METHODOLOGY
Alternative Hypothesis (H1) :
• Is the opposite of the null hypothesis
• Represents a research claim or specific inference you would
like to prove
• Never contains the “=” , “≤” or “” sign
• May or may not be proven
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10.1 HYPOTHESIS TESTING METHODOLOGY
Example 2:
• Claim: The population mean age is 50.
H0: μ = 50, H1: μ ≠ 50
• Sample the population and find sample mean.
Population
Sample
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10.1 HYPOTHESIS TESTING METHODOLOGY
Types of H0 and H1:
One population mean: One population proportion:
• One-way : • One-way :
H0: m ³ mo H0 : p ³ p o
H1: m < mo H1 : p < p o
H0: m £ mo H0 : p £ p o
H1: m > mo H1 : p > p o
• Two-way : • Two-way :
H0: m = mo H0 : p = po
H1: m ¹ mo H1 : p ¹ p o
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10.1 HYPOTHESIS TESTING METHODOLOGY
Error in Decision-Making
Possible Hypothesis Test Outcomes
Decision Actual Situation
H0 True H0 False
Do Not Reject No Error Type II Error
H0 Probability 1 - α Probability β
Reject H0 Type I Error No Error
Probability α Probability 1 - β
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10.1 HYPOTHESIS TESTING METHODOLOGY
The Test Statistic and Critical Values
Lower-tailed test
Represents critical value Upper-tail test
a
Rejection region is shaded a
0 0
Two-tailed test
a/2 a/2
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10.1 HYPOTHESIS TESTING METHODOLOGY
Steps of Hypothesis Testing:
1. State the null hypothesis, H0 and state the alternative
hypotheses, H1
2. Choose the level of significance, α, and the sample size n.
3. Determine the appropriate test statistic and sampling
distribution
4. Determine the critical values that divided the value of the
test statistic
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10.1 HYPOTHESIS TESTING METHODOLOGY
Steps of Hypothesis Testing:
5. Collect data and compute the test statistic from the
sample result
6. Compare the test statistic to the critical value to determine
whether the test statistic falls in the region of rejection.
7. Make the statistical decision: Reject H0 if the test statistic
falls in the rejection region.
8. Express the decision in the context of the problem
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10.2 HYPOTHESIS FOR THE MEAN
The Test Statistic and Critical Values
Hypothesis σ known σ unknown
Test Statistic Critical Values Test Statistic Critical Values
H0: m ³ mo x o x o
z t t t ;n 1
z z s/ n
H1: m < mo / n
H0: m £ mo x o x o
z z z t t t ;n 1
H1: m > mo / n s/ n
H0: m = mo x o x o
z z z / 2 or t t t / 2 or
H1: m ¹ mo / n z z / 2 s/ n t t / 2
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10.2 HYPOTHESIS FOR THE MEAN
Example 2 :
The manager of a fast food restaurant wants to determine
whether the waiting time to place an order has changed in
the past month from its previous population mean value 4.5
minutes and standard deviation 1.2.
To examine it, he selected a sample of 25 orders and the
sample mean is 5.1 minutes. Determine whether the mean
waiting time is 4.5. Use a level of significance α=5%.
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10.2 HYPOTHESIS FOR THE MEAN
Continued Example 2 :
Step 1 : Hypothesis statements
H0: μ = 4.5 H1: μ ≠ 4.5 (This is a two-tailed
test)
Step 2 : Level of significance = .05 and sample size n = 25
Step 3 : Determine the appropriate technique
σ is known so use a Z test
Step 4 : Critical values :
For = .05 the critical Z values are ±1.96
H0 rejected if Z<-1.96 or Z>1.96
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10.2 HYPOTHESIS FOR THE MEAN
Continued Example 2 :
Step 5 : Statistical Test
5.1 4.5
z 2. 5
1.2 / 25
Step 6 : Because z=2.5 > 1.96, so we reject H0
Conclusion there is statistically significant evidence that the
population mean waiting time to place an order has changed
from its previous value of 4.5 minutes, or is not 4.5 minutes.
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10.2 HYPOTHESIS FOR THE MEAN
Continued Example 2 :
Is the test statistic in the rejection region?
= 0.05/2 = 0.05/2
Reject H0 Do not reject H0 Reject H0
Reject H0 if Z
0
< -1.96 or Z > -Z= -1.96 +Z= +1.96
1.96;
otherwise do
not reject H0 Here, Z = 2.5 > 196, so the test
statistic is in the rejection region
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10.2 HYPOTHESIS FOR THE MEAN
Example 3 :
The Saxon Home Improvement Company said that over the past
five years, the mean amount per sales invoice was $120. To
inform the amount change, this company collected a sample of
12 sales invoices as follows:
108.98 152.22 111.45 110.59 127.46 107.26
93.32 91.97 111.56 75.71 128.58 135.11
Test a hypothesis that the meant amount per sales invoice is
more than $120.
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10.2 HYPOTHESIS FOR THE MEAN
Continued Example 3 :
Step 1 : Hypotheses :
H0: μ ≤120 H1: μ > 120 (This is a one-tailed
test)
Step 2 : level of significance = 0.05 and sample size n = 12
Step 3 : Determine the appropriate technique
σ is unknown use a t-test
Step 4 : Critical
t0.05;12 1 values :
1.7959
t t ;n 1
Ho rejected if
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10.2 HYPOTHESIS FOR THE MEAN
Continued Example 3 : Conclusion:
Step 5 : Statistical Test
There is no
112 .85 120
t 1.1908 statistically
20.80 / 12 significant
n
xi evidence that
x 112 .85
i 1 n
the meant
n
xi x 2 amount per
s s2
n 1i 1
20.80 sales invoice is
Step 6 : Because t=-1.1908 < t0.05;121 1.7959 more than
do not reject Ho $120.
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10.2 HYPOTHESIS FOR THE MEAN
Continued example 3 :
Is the test statistic in the rejection region?
= 0.05
Do not reject H0 Reject H0
0
t0.05;121 1.7959
Here, t = -1.1908 < 1.796, so the test statistic is
NOT located in the rejection region
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10.2 HYPOTHESIS FOR THE MEAN
Rejecting a Null Hypothesis using P-value
P-value is the probability of getting a test statistic equal to or
more extreme than the sample result, given that the null
hypothesis is true.
The smaller P-value, the stronger the evidence that you should
reject the null hypothesis.
Reject H0 if P-value < α
Do Not Reject H0 if P-value ≥ α
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10.2 HYPOTHESIS FOR THE MEAN
Example 4
Continued from Example 2 :
Step 5 : Statistical Test z =2.5
P(z>2.5) = 1-P(z<2.5)
= 1-0.9938
= 0.0062
Because it is a two-tailed test P-value=2(0.0062)=0.0124
Step 6 : Because P value <α=0.05, so reject Ho
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10.2 HYPOTHESIS FOR THE MEAN
Continued Example 4 :
The rejection by P-value
/2 = .025 /2 = .025
P-value = 0.0062 P-value = 0.0062
-1.96 0 1.96 Z
-2.5 2.5
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10.3 HYPOTHESIS FOR THE PROPORTION
• Involves categorical variables
• Two possible outcomes
– “Success” (possesses a certain characteristic)
– “Failure” (does not possesses that characteristic)
• Fraction or proportion of the population in the “success”
category is denoted by p
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10.3 HYPOTHESIS FOR THE PROPORTION
• The steps for hypothesis test is same as hypothesis test for
mean
• Statistical Test :
p po
Z
po (1 po )
n
– Z is the standardized normal value for the level of confidence desired
–
p is the sample proportion
– po is hypothesized proportion of successes in the population
– n is the sample size
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10.3 HYPOTHESIS FOR THE PROPORTION
The Test Statistic and Critical Values
Hypothesis Test Statistic Critical Values
H0 : p ³ p o
z z
H1 : p < p o
p po
H0 : p £ p o Z z z
po (1 po )
H1 : p > p o n
H0 : p = p o z z / 2 or
z z / 2
H1 : p ¹ p o
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10.3 HYPOTHESIS FOR THE PROPORTION
Example 5:
A marketing company claims that it receives 8% responses
from its mailing. To test this claim, a random sample of 500
people were surveyed with 30 responses. Test at = .05
significance level.
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10.3 HYPOTHESIS FOR THE PROPORTION
Continued Example 5 :
Step 1 : Hypotheses :
H0: p = 0.08
H1: p ≠ 0.08 (This is a two-tailed test)
Step 2 : level of significance = .05 and sample size n = 30
Step 3 : Determine the appropriate technique Z test
Step 4 : Critical values :
For = 0.05, the critical Z values are ±1.96
Ho is rejected if Z<-1.96 or Z>1.96
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10.3 HYPOTHESIS FOR THE PROPORTION
Continued Example 5 :
Step 5 : Statistical Test
.025 .025
p 30 / 500 0.06
z
0.06 0.08 -1.96
0
1.96
Z 1.648
0.08(1 0.08) -1.648
500
Step 6 : Because z = -1.648 > -1.96, so donot reject H0.
There isn’t sufficient evidence to reject the company’s claim of
8% response rate, or that the responses is not 8%.
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EXERCISES
1. An electronics company claims that its particular product’s
components has an average length of 82.5 mm. An
experimenter tested this claim by measuring the lengths of a
random sample of 25 components. It was found that mean
sample was 82.40 mm and the sample standard deviation
was 0.14. Use a hypothesis test to assess whether the
experimenter has a sufficient evidence to conclude that the
average lengths of the components is different from 82.5
mm.
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EXERCISES
2. A builder claims that heat pumps are installed in 70% of all
homes being constructed today in the city of Richmond,
Virginia. Would you agree with this claim if a random survey
of new homes in this city showed that 8 out of 15 had heat
pumps installed? Use a 0.10 level of significance.
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EXERCISES
3.
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EXERCISES
4.
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