iblika ng Pilipir Deputnent Agere 83 Pambansang Pangasiwaan ng Patubig Tl (NATIONAL IRRIGATION ADMINISTRATION) BALOG-BALOG MULTIPURPOSE PROJECT Matatalaib, Tartac City FEASIBILITY UPDATING STUDY OF BALOG - BALOG MULTIPURPOSE PROJECT PHASE If (BBMP-II) MAY 2010 MAIN REPORT VOLUME! niaconsult, ime. EDSA, QUEZON CITY, Pippines44 FISHERY ‘The scope of works of the Project are the construction of the Balog-Balog Dam and Reservoir across the Bulsa river, imigation structures and facilities to cover the service area of 34,410 ha ‘and one unit each of 29 MW and 14.5 MW hydropower piants at the foot of the Dam. With the Dam height of 113.5 meter, the volume of water that will be stored is 625 MCM in a reservoir area of 1,800 hectares. The 1,800 hectare Balog-Balog Reservoir could provide a good source of livelihood for the nearby communities in the area. This is possible through fish production using cage nets in at least 150 hectares within the reservoir area. Tilapia production with the use of fishnet cage has been proven successful by the Fishcage Operators in Magat Dam Reservoir in Ramon, Isabela, and Region 2. Tilapia is mainly lacustrine fish and is well adapted to enclosed waters. They produced high yields and considered as important source of protein in many tropical countries. Tilapia is a valuable fish that each breeder can reproduce 10,000 fingerlings in a year and they grow faster compared to other inland fishes. It can live on small aquatic plants and algae or feed ‘supplements like rice bran and formulated feeds, Nowadays, the demand for tilapia particularly in the rural areas is high due to its palatability and low price compared to galunggong and other sea/inland fishes. To maximize the benefits that could be derived out of the Balog-Balog Dam and Reservoir construction, a fishery component in the reservoir area is considered, 4.4.1 Fishery Description Balog-Balog reservoir will be a body of stored water of about 625 million cubic meters (MCM) upon completion of the proposed Dam with a height of 113.5 meter between the foot of the Maa and Maamot mountains. The proposed dam and reservoir is located on the western part of the province of Tarlac, municipality of San Jose and Barangay of Maamot. It is 48 km away from Tarlac City and very accessible through the concrete road pavement. The fishery component consists of the construction and production of tilapia species in fixed floating cages of at least 150 hectares within the Balog-Balog reservoir area. The main beneficiaries in this component are the residents, holders/owners of the agricultural jand/homelots utilized as reservoir area and Businessmen in San Jose and Tarlac City. Each of the interested families will be allocated of one (1) unit module consisting of five (5) units nursery cage and ten (10) units of growing/fattening cages with a dimension of 10m x 10m x 3m per cage The estimated cost of production per tilapia cage is P66,890.00 (Table 4.14) and the computed net return above all cost for the first cropping is P59,110.00 and P93,540.00 for the second ‘cropping with an annual return of P152,650.00. The cost and retum analysis of tilapia fishcage culture production is presented in Table 4.15, am ssBolog-Balog Multipurpose Project, Phase I Feosibility Updating Study Table 4.14 — Cost of Production on Tilapia Fishcage Culture BBMP Reservoir Area PARTICULAR COST (P) A. Fixed Costs 4. Materials for Construction of Fishcage 4.1._1 roll, knotless netting, # 17 mesh size 4,700.00 4.2 _1 roll, polytheiine Evelon Rope # 10 3,000.00 1.3 5 pes. Spool Twine # 20/14 270.00 1.4 80 pcs. Full length bamboo 4,000.00 4.5 _1kg. Monofitament (tanse) # 100 480.00 1.6 Labor Costs (40% of material cost) 4,980.00 2. Fishcage Maintenance 1,200.00 3. Boat & Containers 15,000.00 4. Permit & other fees 2,000.00, Sub-Total 35,630.00 B. Variable Costs 4. Fingerlings (size 17 @ PO.45/pc x 16,000 pc) 8,100.00 2. Feeds 2.1 1/2 bag, Fish crumble 260.00 2.2 1.5 bag, Juvinile Floating 900.00 2.3 20 bags, Finisher, Aqua Float 10,000.00 3,_Labor (40% of Variable Cost) 12,000.00 Sub-Total 31,260.00 TOTAL 66,890.00 pe E—e ‘Based on the data provided by the Operators of Fisheage Tilapia Production in Magat Reservoir, Ramon, Isabela, August 2009 S WiAConsult, inc. 2010 ‘Volume E Main Rapon 90a Bolog-Balog Multipurpose Project, Phase I! Feasibility Updating Study Table 4.15 Cost and Return Analysis of Tilapia Fishcage Culture BBM Reservoir Area " ee GROPPINGIGROWING PERIOD Total PARTICULAI t Fs ‘Add’. i dun-oct | Nov-Mar | Aug-Dec | Per Year at 1 Gross Retumn: 1.1. Production (kg/cage) 2,100.00] 2,100.00] 2,100.00| 6,300.00 4.2 Farmgate Price Pikg ™ 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 - 1.3 Gross Return P/cage 126,000.00 | 126,000.00 | 126,000.00 | 378,000.00 2. Production Costs: " iam A. Fixed Cost 2.1 Fishcage 17,430.00 | 17,430.00 | 34,860.00 2.2 Fishing Boat 415,000.00 0 0| 15,000.00 i 2.3 Fisheage Maintenance 1,200.00] 1,200.00] _ 1,200.00 3,600.00 2.4 Permits & Other Fees 2,000.00 0.00 | 2,000.00 | "4,000.00 a ‘Sub-Total 35,630.00 | 1,200.00 | 20,630.00 | _ 57,460.00 B. Variable Cost" 4. Fingerlings 8,100,00[ 8,100.00| 8,100.00 | 24,300.00 ca 2. Feeds 14,160.00 | _ 11,160.00 | _11,160.00 33,480.00 3, Labor 42,000.00 | 12,000.00 | 12,000.00 | "36,000.00 Sub-Total 31,260.00 | 31,260.00 | 31,260.00 93,780.00 Ee C.Total Costs 66,890.00 | 32,460.00 | 51,890.00 | 151,240.00 e 3. Net Return ‘A. Above Fixed Costs 90,370.00 | 124,800.00 | 105,370.00 | 320,540.00 B. Above All Costs. 59,110.00] 93,540.00] 74,110.00 | 226,760.00 - "Based on the data provided by the Fishcage Operators in MRIIS Reservoir, Isabela ” Computed based on the recommended density per cubic meter with 20% mortality ¥ The current market price in Tarlac City is P 80g 4.4.2 Soil and Water Quality Soil and water samples were collected within the tributaries upstream of the proposed Balog- Balog reservoir and were analyzed at the NIA-Soils and Water Laboratory in Diliman, Quezon as City. The general assessment of the quality of the river waters had qualified for industrial fishery and agricultural purposes. The physical and chemical parameters satisfactorily meet the requirements for the production of tilapia and other aquatic species. The results of the soil and water samples analysis is presented in Tables 4.16, 4.17 and 4.18. ‘NIAConsutt, Inc. 2010 Volume E Main Report 1Bolog-Balog Multipurpose Project, Phose It Feosibilty Updoting Shady Table 4.16 Soil Analysis Balog-Balog Reservoir Area pH Electrical bneaiaduce (1:1 Soil Water ees Ratio) (mitlimhos/cm) 4. Bulsa River 68 0.08 2. Maiilit River 65 0.07 3. Buybuy River 62 0.08 4, Tangan-Tangan River 64 0.06 TOTAL 388 0.39 AVERAGE 65 0.06 NOTE: ‘The soil samples were analyzed at NIA-Soils & Water Laboratory 2nd Floor, inigation Engineering Center, NIA Compound, EDSA, Diliman, Quezon City Table 4.17 Water Sample Quality Analysis Balog-Balog Reservoir Area, 2009 WATER SAMPLES SITES hiaeeale ea Bulsa ‘Buybuy | Tangan | TOTAL | AVERAGE River River_|_ River 1. pH 7e7 | 787 | 757 787 | 30.98 774 2. Electrical Conductivity (EC 25 X 10) icorbateet 220 | 223 287 317 | 1,047.00] 261.75 3. Cations (meq/li) 3.1Na 050 } 060 } 060 0.50 2.20 0.55 3.2K o10 | 013 | 0.20 0.23 0.66 0.16 3.3Ca 058 | 077 | 0.89 0.91 3.15 0.79 3.4Mg 1.01 0.73 1.10 1.42 4.26 1.06 4, Anions(meqll) 41 S04 032 | 033 | 065 06s 1.95 0.49 42 Cl 025 | 025 | 025 0.25 1 0.25 43 CO3 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 4.4 HCO3 153 | 158 | 187 217 7.15 1.79 5. Sediment (ppm) o93 | 537 | 2.73 067 97 2.42 NiAConsult, Inc. 2010 ‘Volume EMain Ropar 92Balog-Balog Multipurpose Project, Phos ty Updating Study Table 4.18 Water Quality Analysis - Fishery Component BBMP Feasibility Study, Bulsa River 2009 Parameter Sta.1| Sta.2|Sta.3 Sta.4| Sta.5 | Sta6| TOTAL | AVERAGE 1.Temperature, °C 273 | 28.5 | 26.0 27.2 | 264 | 276 | 1632 27.2 2.Color, Units 40 | 10 | 10 10 | 10 | 5 55 9.17 3.Turbidity, ppm,SiO2 05 | 05) 05 05] 05/05) 05 0s 4.Total Solids, ppm 445 | 160 | 152 144 | 187 | 153 | 911 151.83 5.Dissolved Solids, ppm 419 | 131 | 125 130) 124 | 117 | 746 124.33 6.Suspended Solids, ppm 24 | 27 | 2 12 | 31 | 36 | 156 26 7pH 8.35 | 8.45 | 8.40 8.20 | 8.30 | 8.40 | 50.10 8.35 8.Total Alkalinity, ppm 20 | 20 | 20 2 | 18 | 18} 116 19.33 9.Phenolpthalein, ppm 10 | 20] 6 4 | 15 | 15 | 70 11.67 10.Total Hardness, ppm 116 | 116 | 112 114 | 114 | 114 | 686 114.33, 11.Calcium Hardness, ppm 46 | 50 | 46 62 | 46 | 48 | 298 49.67 12.Calcium, ppm 48 | 20 | 18 25 | 18 | 19 | 118 19.67 13.Magnesium, ppm. 17 | 16 | 16 12 | 16 | 16 | 93 15.50 14,.Phosphate, ug/1 25 | 17 | 38 23 | 105 | 25 | 233 38.83 15.Silica, ppm 39 | 40 | 41 44 | 24 | 39 | 227 37.83 16.Chloride, ppm 7 117) 14 14'{| 14) 12: | 78 26 17 Sulfate, ppm 2 | 6 | 24 36] 3 } 3 20 3.33 18.Nitrate, ug/1 as N 22 | 21} 23 16 | 32 | 21 | 135 225 19.Nitrite, ug/1 as N 0,62 | 0.22 | 0.62 057 | 0.94 | 062 | 3.59 06 20.Ammonium, ug/t as N 23 | 42 | 78 23 | 78 | 61 | 305 508 21.BOD, ppm 03 | 06] 09 03 | 05] 05) 31 0.52 22.COD, ppm 4), 4)4 4/4 | 4 24 4 NOTE: The water samples ware tasted and analyzed at NIA Soils and Water Laboratory 2nd Floor, irrigation Engineering Center, NIA-Compound, Diliman, Quezon City ‘The water temperature varies from 26 °C to 28.5 °C with an average of 27.2 °C. The values are within the temperature range suitable for the production of tilapia which is 20 to 30 °C. The color of the collected water samples ranged from 5 to 10 units. Waters recommended for sustenance of fish, other aquatic life and wildlife should be less than 50 color units. This is required because 10% of the ight striking the ‘surface of a body of water must arrive at the bottom of the photosynthetic zone to maintain adequate dissolved oxygen concentration. Color in Voume i Main Repot 93.Bolog-Balog Multipurpose Project, Phase I Feasibility Updating Study ‘excess of 50 units may limit photosynthetic thus dissolve oxygen levels will cause unbalance between aquatic life forms. The average turbidity of the water samples collected in the Bulsa River is 0.5 units, Turbidity in water is caused by the presence of suspended particles such as clay, silt, finely divided organic matter, planktons and other microscopic organisms. For water designated for aquatic life preservation, turbidities due to the discharge of waste should not exceed 50 Jackson Turbidity Unit (JTU) in warm water streams or 10 JTU in cold water streams. Turbidities in warm water lakes/reservoir should not exceed 10 units. 4.4.3 Fishcage Belt Area ‘The selected area intended for the Tilapia culture was based on the designed water level of the teservoir and physical conditions of the area. The sources of water to be stored in the reservoir are the Tangan-tangan, Buybuy, Mallit and Bulsa Rivers. These rivers originate from the eastern slopes of the Zambales mountain range. The watershed area is mostly covered by grassland and second growth forest trees. The design maximum normal water level of the reservoir is 238 mas! and the minimum water level for power generation and irrigation is 190 mas! and 180 masl, respectively. To prevent the reservoir from pollution, BFAR allows only 10% of the body of water for fishcage culture. The normal required water depth of a fishcage is 6-10 meter thus; fishcage area of 150 hectare could be put up in the reservoir when the water level is at elevation 228 masl. Taking into consideration the volume of water that will be released for the daily irrigation requirement of the 34,410 hectares of the project a drawdown of water in the reservoir is expected thus fishcage area is limited to elevation 205 masl. The fish cage belt area is confined to water elevation between 205 masl to 228 mas|. The coverage of the fish cage belt area and fishcage sites is shown in Figure 44. 4.44 Fish Sanctuary Area One kilometer stretch from the Dam axis going upstream is designated as Balog-Balog Reservoir Fish Sanctuary Area, The Fishermen are strictly prohibited to catch fish within the sanctuary area. Similarly, nobody will be granted permit to establish fishcage in any portion under the coverage of the sanctuary area 4.4.5 Number of Fishcage and Operators Typical design of a fishcage has a dimension of 10 m (L) X 10 m (W) with 3-6 meter height of net. The minimum distance between any two fishcage shall be twenty (20) meters when they are ‘owned by different individuals/cooperatives and five (5) meters when they are owned by same individual/cooperative. Permit to constructioperate fishcage shall be granted only within the designated 150 hectare fishcage belt area, Each of the individual operators will be granted an area of not more than 1,000 sq. meter and not more than 25,000 sq. meter for cooperatives/associations or corporations, No fisheage shall be constructed within the identified navigational channels or at river outlets. With this condition, about 54 units of fishcage will be established per hectare and a ‘NIAConsult, Inc. 2010 Recon 94Bolog-Balog Multipurpose Project, Phose It Feasibility Updoting Study maximum of 14,850 fishcage within the reservoir depending on the reservoir water surface level per year. 4.4.6 Schedule of Establishment and Operation The climate in the area is characterized by two distinct seasons, wet from May to October and dry from November through April. About 90% of the total annual rainfall is recorded during wet season with an average of 2,500 mm in the mountainous area. Considering this situation, the schedule of establishing and operating the fishcage in the reservoir is set as presented in Table 4.19 below. Table 4.19 Schedules of Establishment and Operation CROPPINGIGROWING | AREA nO ee RESERVOIR WATER FISHCAGE PERIOD (ha) | (40m x 10m x 3m) LEVEL (Mean above sea level) 1 June - October 125 6,750 205-230 2 Nov. - March 125 6,750 238-205 ‘Add'l, Aug. - December 25 1,350 215-238 TOTAL PER YEAR 275 14,850 4.4.7 Number of Fingerlings per Cage/Stocking Density During the nursery stage, a stocking density of 1,400 fingerlings per cubic meter is advisable but during the growing stage, about 140 fingerings per cubic meter could grow but it needs intensive feeding. In this study a stocking density of 60 fingerlings per cubic meter during the growing stages was adopted. At 60 fingerlings/cubic meter x 300 cubic meter/cage, the total number of fingertings is 18,000 fishicage. With 30% allowance for mortality, the number of fish that will be harvested after 4-5 months per cage is 12,600 pieces. 4.4.8 Production Value per Cage, Production Cost and Benefits The normal saleable number of cultured tilapia in a fishcage grown from 4-5 months period according to Fisherfolks in MRIIS Reservoir is 5-7 pc per kilogram with a farmgate price of P75.00/kg. The prevailing market price of tilapia in Tarlac City is P80/kg and P90/kg in Metro Manila. Considering the profit and transportationnandling cost of the merchantsitraders the farmgate price of tilapia in the Balog-Balog reservoir area is set at P60.00/kg. Hence, ‘the production value per Fishcage in the reservoir is calculated as: & ‘NiAConsult, Inc. 2010 Volume i Main Repo 95)Balog-Bolog Multipurpose Project, Phase Il Feasibility Updoting Study Production Value per Fishcage = 12,600 fish’6 fish per kg = 2,100 kg 2,100 kg x P 60 per kg. = P126,000.00 ‘The production cost in the establishment and operation of the fishcage used in the study was based on the current prices of the materials and labor consummated by the Fishcage Operators in MRIIS Reservoir (refer to Table 4.5.5 - Cost and Retum Analysis). 1® Cropping June — October = P66,890.00 2" Cropping Nov. - March = 32,460.00 ‘Add’l. August - December = 51,890.00 The total Annual Benefits for Tilapia Fishcage Culture at the Balog-Balog Multipurpose Project Reservoir at full development is estimated at P1,130,436,000.00 as shown below: 4 Cropping : 6,750 cages x P59,110 per cage = P398,992,500.00 2" Cropping .8,750 cages x P93,540 per cage = P631,395,000.00 Add’. 2 1,350 cages x P74,110 percage = P100,048,600.00 TOTAL, anaamenennnnnee -P1,130,436,000.00 4.5 IMPLEMENTATION PLAN 4.5.1 Implementation Organization The National Irrigation Administration (NIA) is the lead implementing agency and the supporting agencies are national line agencies such as the Department of Agriculture (DA), Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR), and Department of Agrarian Reform (DAR). The Engineering Department, Engineering and Operations Sector of the NIA Central Office will be responsible for the project implementation conceming policy matters, monitoring of progress of implementation and coordination with concemed national government agencies. At the field level, the Project Management Office (PMO) of BBMP will take charge of the implementation of the Project. The PMO has been carrying out preparatory works for construction, assessment of the effects of Mt. Pinatubo eruptions, relocation of irrigation service areas, and some modifications of plans and designs. The existing PMO shall be re-organized in order to undertake the construction supervision and support services when the major works are started. Local Goverment Units (LGUs) such as Provincial and Municipal Agricultural Offices ‘and NGOs shall be involved particularly in the resettlement planning and in agri-institutional development of irrigators’ associations (IAs). The existing organizational chart of NIA and the proposed organization chart for the implementation of BBMP is presented in Figure 4.5. & ‘NiAConsult, Inc. 2010 Votune Fain Rapot 96Balog-Balog Multipurpose Project, Phase I Feasibility Updating Study Figure 4.5 — Proposed Organization Chart for implementation of BBMP Government Agencies: (National Level) - DA - DAR ~ ENR Engineering ank (Manila) Government Agencies: {Provincial Level) Deputy Administrator for 1d Operations, = Local Government Units (igus) = NGOs (Tarlac) se] Project Management Office Equipment Division Administrative Division Engineering Division Institutional Development Division SEE aa ae efter 1 Irigators’ Association (IAs) 1 1 1 ‘Area Management Irrigation Aspect | ‘Area Management Dam Aspect Dam Division Contactos & ‘NIAConsult, inc. 2010 Volume Main Rapot 97Balog-Balog Multipurpose Project, Phast Feasibility Updating Study 4.5.2 Implementation Schedule All project construction works and procurement and installation of equipment under the Project can be completed in six (6) years inclusive of preparatory works and some minor works being conducted by the NIA. The construction of Balog-Balog dam will be completed in four (4) years. Land acquisition and compensation including resettlement will be completed prior to the start of construction works. The overall implementation schedule is presented in Figure 4.6 beiow. Figure 4.6 Balog-Balog Multipurpose Project Implementation Schedule [estes tte Nees 1st 2nd | 3rd ath | Sth | 6th Remarks Year | Year | Year | Year | Year | Year Description |. Pre-Construction Works 7. Loan Agreement & Procurementof — Consultants 2. Review of Detailed | samme Design & Estimates Ul. Construction and Procurement 1, Preparatory Woks — Including 2. Balog-Balog Dam | vor Plant A= 34,410ha 3. Imrigation Facilities = Sub-Area | (TARRIS Existing) (TARRIS Ext'n.) —_——_— ~ Sub-Area Il (M/Paniqui Extn.) (S/Sta. Maria Ext'n.) > Sub-Area il (SMORIS Existin) —e (SMORIS Extn.) (Concepcion Ext'n.) 4. Resettlement eerie 5. Agr-institutional al Development 6. Consulting Services a 2010 ‘Voune EMan Raper 9BBolog-Bolog Multipurpose Project, Phase It Feasibility Updating Study 4.5.3 Construction and Procurement Engineering consulting firms shall be hired to undertake all physical works such as review of design and cost estimates, preparation of tender documents, and construction supervision. The consulting firms will be selected through intemational competitive bidding (ICB). Major project works and equipment procurement will be carried out on a contract basis ‘employing contractors through intemational competitive bidding. Contractors who will apply to tender will be invited through shortlisting selection and pre-qualification screening. Minor works such as rehabilitation of existing irrigation facilities and construction of on-farm facilities will be carried out by force account works. 4.6 OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE 4.6.1 Operation and Maintenance Organization The responsibility for the operation and maintenance (O&M) of the project facilities and equipment will be transferred to the NIA’s Tarlac Provincial Irrigation Management Office (TPIMO) after full completion of the project work. The major functions of TPIMO will include the release of water from the Balog-Balog Dam for irrigation and hydropower generation, irrigation water management, and collection of irrigation service fees (ISF). Institutional and agricultural support services shall also be continuously rendered by the TPIMO to Irrigators' Association (IAs), in cooperation with agricultural offices of LGUs. The proposed O&M organizational chart of the Project is presented in Figure 4.7. 4.8.2 Operation and Maintenance Costs The Project's facilities and equipment to be operated and maintained after completion of construction works are a) Balog-Balog Dam including hydropower, b) irrigation facilities, and ¢) O&M of equipment. Total operation and maintenance costs are estimated to be about P93.960 M per annum as shown in Table 4.20. NiAConsult, Inc. 2010 Voune Main Repot 99)Phase it Feosibil Bolog-Bolog Multipurpose Pr Updating St Figure 4.7 Proposed Organizational Chart of O&M of BBMP Government Agencies: Engineering and Operations -DA ‘Sector-NIA (Manila) -DENR -DAR ‘Operations Department - NIA (OD-NIA) (Mania) Regional Office Region ttl) Regional Level Management Office (TPIMO) (Tariac) Local Government Units (LGUs) Institutional Engineering Administrative Operation & Development Section Services Maintenance Section Section & WiAConsult, Inc. 2010 Vouune E Main Raper 100~ Bolog-Balog Multipurpose Project, Phase I Table 4.20 Annual Operation and Maintenance Costs ‘Amount (P’000/year} i Balog-Balog Dam a) Balog-Balog Dam 40,396 : b) Hydropower Plant 14,450 L Sub-total 1 54,846 Irrigation Facilities e a) Sub-Area | (TARRIS - 13,825 ha) 13,272 b) Sub-Area Il (Moncada/Paniqui, Sinait/Sta, Maria ~ 14,089 13,525 ha) c) Sub-Area Ill (San Miguel, SMORIS, Concepcion ~ 11,237 10,787 ha) Sub-total 2 37,584 1,530 Equipment for O&M - 93,960 a 4.7 PROJECT COST AND ESTIMATES 4.7.1. Updating of Quantity and Cost Estimate ‘Due to the constraint mentioned above, the updating of quantity estimate for all civil work items is not possible. Updating of unit costs for major construction items was performed. However, there are lot of specific items which could not be done with the limited time of the study period. All ‘other cost without updated costing will be escalated to about 6 percent from the base cost . presented in the January 2008 Project Report. The updated Project Cost is shown in Table 4.21 & ‘NiAConsult, Inc. 2010 ‘Volume F Main Report TOTZOL_ vedo me 1 aurien eat scesor otog “24h “ynsuoaviIN avseesart — = = —— 7 E ‘SHHOIA NOUTALENGD | 105, Er = sap wowaay | 45092108 worse | navisos | wna Inrssoo sar) iniow 1500 136044 rans ss00 ato wowanosa0 deol | owenoe, | axcay | veer 1sa3.2oue | NOUMWES | NODES ‘aivaun | 22.220 yso9 Welold ZaseUd = ZY AeL 11 Bi0qg ‘Peleg aod Boj09-BOpPGECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ANALYSISBalog-Bolog Multipurpose Project, Phose Il Feasibility Updoting Study SECTION 5 5 ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS The financial and economic evaluation of the project is made primarily to assess whether the development of the project would represent efficient use of the scarce resources relative to other investments elsewhere in the economy. In all large irrigation and power development projects, the evaluation is centered on the determination of economic intemal rate of return (EIRR), net present value, (NPV), and benefit cost ratio (BCR). 5.1 BASIC ASSUMPTIONS The Balog-Balog Multipurpose Project (BBMP) feasibility study was evaluated and approved by NEDA in 2000, but due to increases in the costs of construction, equipment and labor, delays in the implementation and possible decreases in project benefits, updating and re-evaluation is required to determine if the project is still economically viable. The methods used were economic internal rate of retum (EIRR) and benefit-cost ratio (BCR) analysis for the economic evaluation ‘and crop/farm budget analyses for the financial evaluation. The irrigation benefit is measured through the estimated net incremental income derived from the harvested area forecasted during without-project and with-project situations. 5.1.1 Source of Data and Information The data and information used in the updating of the feasibility on the derivation of irrigation benefits have been sourced-out from the results of agro-economic survey done during the updating study, research institutions/agencies and statistics offices. The population, area ‘coverage, number of barangays and farmers in Tarlac City and municipalities of Victoria, La Paz, Paniqui, Gerona, Pura, Ramos, Concepcion and Capas within the coverage of the onginal project area of 39,150 ha served as basis in the determination of sample respondents, Stratified sampling technique was adopted in the determination of sample respondents to ensure that all farmers within the target project service area are represented. With the limited available resources and time constraint, 276 farmers and 76 Barangay Officials were interviewed. There ‘were 205 Barangays identified in the project area with a total population of 604,382 representing about 48% of the population in Tarlac province (see Table 5.1) Coriicoraan re t00 Tamara napa TOSBalog-Bolog Multipurpose Project, Phase I Feasibility Updating Study Table 5.1 Record of Population, Number of Farmers and Targeted No. of Respondents. Agro-Economic and Farm Management Survey, BBMP Service Area, 2009 City/Municipalty Population | __ Proposed Irrigable Area(Ha) (No. of Barangay) Total Existing | Extn, Total (A. SUB-AREA | 225,017 8,600 5,225 13,825 4. Tarlac City (27 Barangays} 119,301} 4,043 4,043 2. Pura (8 Barangays) 12,817, 321 785 3. Victoria (22 Barangays) 49,688 | 1,865 4821 4, LaPaz (9 Berangaye) 2ag00} 1053) 1g 2,858 5. Gerona (9 Barangays) sgatt| 1318 4318 B. SUB-AREA IL 170,024 12,255 Paniqui - Right Bank (24 Berangaye) 64,256 3474 . Panigu - Left Bank (6 Barangays) 7,789 4,110 3, Gerona - Right Bank, Extn. (19 Barangays) 199 Z 2,908 Ramos-Right Bank Extn (Barangays) 19,648 . Tarlac City, Extn. (15 Barangays) 134 C. SUB-AREA Ill (SMORIS Existing) 4, Tarlac City (14 Barangays) 2, LaPaz (12 Barangays) 3. Capas (9 Barangays) 4, Concepcion (23 Barangays) TOTAL (205 Barangays) Source: National Statistics Otce, Tarlac City Barangay Survey, July - 2009 & ‘NIAConsult, Inc. 2010 ‘Volume Main Rapon 104Baleg-Balog Multipurpose Project, Phase Il Feasibility Updating Study 5.1.2 Prices of Agricultural Inputs and Outputs In the financial and economic evaluation of the project, all cost is expressed in June 2009 constant prices. The exchange rate of a dollar to peso currency that was applied in the ‘computation is P48,00 to US $1.00. The derivation of the economic and financial prices of tradable products such as rice, corn, sugar and fertilizers are based from the World Bank ‘Commodity Price Data of June 2009. 5.1.3 Cost of Production The cost of production of rice, sugarcane, corn and other crops were computed on a per hectare basis under ‘without” and “with” project conditions. The physical input requirements for each crop were based on the experiences of the farmers and the results of applied researches conducted in the area by different line agencies and non-government organizations. The valuation of rice and diversified crops production costs are based on the prevailing domestic prices in the project area Tables 5.2 to 5.7 present the price structures for rice, sugarcane, com and fertilizer nutrients. ‘The crop production per hectare based on the physical input and prices assumptions are shown in Tables 5.8 to 5.20, and the financial and economic cost of production for rice, diversified crop including sugarcane are presented in Tables 5.21 to 5.35. Results of the cost and retum analysis for all crops are presented in Tables 5.36 to 5.48 while the Economic analysis of the net value of production is shown in Table 5.49. 5.1.4 Economic Cost of Farm Labor and Net Value of Crop Production The labor requirements in all of the farming activities starting from seedbed preparation up to storing of produce for all the crops were accounted. The prevailing average wage rate in the service area was P150 per man-day. The economic value of farm labor was determined by applying a shadow wage rate of 0,60. The total economic cost of farm labor in future without project and future with project are P289,374,120 and P442,838,250 respectively. The irrigation benefits that would accrue annually to the project at full development are estimated as the difference of the net production value between ‘with" and “without” project conditions. 5.1.5 Project Development Period and Economic Life The full agricultural development of the project is expected to be attained five (5) years after the construction of the facilities and structures are completed. The economic life of the project is assumed to be fifty (50) years starting from the initiation of project activities. Onan Tne. 2010 ‘Volume t Main Repo 105- Bolog-Balog Multipurpose Project, Phase Il Feasibility Updating Study Table 5.2 Rice Price Structure Expor price, Rice (Thal), FOB Bangkok Less: Quality discount (20%) (Ocean freight and insurance Import Price CIF Phitippine Port Plus: Port handing charges Importer's margin Ex-warehouss prios he Pius: Average cost of transportation and Handling to Distribution center * Trading margins Wholesale price in Metro Manila Less: Average cost of transportation (Tarlac City-Metro Manila) * Ex.mil price - Loss: Ming cost” Plus: Vaive of by-product Pre-mill value - Paddy equivalent price (65% miling recovery) Less: Average cost of transportation from farm to mill Farmgate paddy rice * All value expressed in terms of constant 2008 prices world Bank EPDCS as of une 2009 #4 US Dollar = P48,00 9 Estimated at 7.5 of C.LF. 7 + Assuming @ 50% foreign exchange component ata shadow exchange rate (SER) of PST. 60 per US Doar # Assuming @ 30% foreign exchange component ata shadow exchange rate (SER) of PS7.60 per US Daler & ‘NiAConsult, Inc. 2010 Volume k Main Repot 106Feasibility Updoting Study Financial Economic (Ptton) | (Piton) _|_USstton Export price, Rice Maize (U.S), No. 2, Yellow, fob, US Gulf Poris™ 1795 ‘Ocean freight and insurance to Philippine Port 40, Import Price CIF Philippine Port * 6,696 8068 1395 Plus: Port handing charges 200 200 Ex-warchouse price . 6,896 8,268 Plus: Average costo anspor f sling contr # 40 40 ‘Wholesale price | Matro Manila 726 8708 Less: Average cost of transportation (Tari City-Metro Marita) 400 440 Sxl price 6,86 8.268 Less: Miling and Packaging cost 750 825 Les: Average costo transportation fom farm to mil 100 110 Farmgate prio of corn 6,046 7,333 "Al value expressed in ferms of constant 2009 prices world Bank EPOCS as of June 2009 1 US Dollar = P48.00 «» Assuming a 50% foreign exchange component at a shadow exchange rate (SER) of P57.60 per US Dotiar Assuming a 30% foreign exchenge component at @ shadow exchange rate (SER) of P57.60 per US Dotiar & WiAConsult, Inc. 2010 ‘Volume i Nain Report 107Bolog-Balog Multipurpose Project, Phase I Feasibility Updating Study Table 5.4 —_Urea Price Structure a/ Financial (Piton) ‘Export price, FOB indonesia (Ocean freight and insurance Import Price CIF Philippine Port Importer's margin # Contingencies Administrative and operating cost * ‘Average cost of transportation and handling fo distribution center # Dealer's margin ‘Average cost of transportation from distribution center to farm 9 Urea Farmgate price Nitrogen Farmgate Price (per kg, Nutrient) ~All value expressed in terms of constant 2009 prices ‘world Bank EPOCS as of June 2009 1 US Dollar = P48.00 9 Estimated at 24% of CLF. 0.80 of C.F. and importers cost #54 of CLE, contingencies and importers margin Assuming @ 50% foreign exchange component at a shadow exchange rate (SER) of P57.60 per US S ‘NiAConsult, inc. 2010 Voume t Moin Repo 108:7 Bolog-Balog Multipurpose Project, Phase I! Feasibility Updating Study. Table 5.5 Triple Superphosphate (TSP) Price Structure ” 2008 os eee Financial Economic (Phton) [ (Pon) | Usston Export pre, FOB Vanoower ” 20 Fe ‘Ocean freight and insurance | 40 Import Price CIF Philippine Port” 12,480. | 14,976 260 Importer's margin # 2,995 3.594 a ‘Contingencies * 124 | 149 Administrative and operating cost 780 | 936 fas ‘Average cost of transportation and handing to distribution center 7 | 400 40 Dealer's margin 150 | 180 ‘Average cost of transportation from distribution center to farm 100 110 ce TsPFaimgate price Phosphorus Farmgate Price (per kg. Nutrient) “All value expressed in terms of constant 2009 prices ‘world Bank EPDCS as of June 2009 1 US Dollar= P48,00 Estimated at 2496 of CLF. 0,800fC.LF. and importers cost * 5% of C.LF., contingencies and importers margin a 1 Assuming @ 50% foreign exchange component at a shadow exchange rate (SER) of PS7.60per US & ‘NiAConsult, Inc. 2010 Volume t Main Repo 109Bolog-Balog Multipurpose Project, Phase Il Table 5.6 Muriate of Potash Price Structure * Feasibility Updating Study 2008 Toe M Financial Economic (Plton) | (Piton) | USSHon Export price, FOB Vancouver 717.50 (Ocean freight and insurance 5h Import Price CIF Philippine Port # sigs. | 44438 | 771.50 Importer's margin # 8,888. 10,666 Contingencies # 387 4a Administrative and operating cost " 2314 277 ‘Average cost of transportation and handling to distribution canter 7 400 40 Dealer's margin 150 180 Average cost of transportation from distribution center to farm # 100 110 Muriate of Potash Farmgate Price/ton 49252 | 59,022 Potassium Farmgate Price (por kg. Nutriont) 8209 e37 ~All value expressed in terms of constant 2009 prices. ‘word Bank EPOCS as of June 2009 1 US Dollar= P48,00 Estimated at 24% of C.LF. ¥0.800fC.LF. and importer’s cost 5% of CLF, contingencies end importers margin Assuming a 50% foreign exchange component at a shadow exchange rate (SER) of PS7.60 per US Volume E Main Repo 110). Balog-Bolog Multipurpose Project, Phase it Feasibility Updating Study Table 5.7 Sugarcane Price Structure ” Composite price of sugar per picul®, (P) bad ‘Sugarcane price equivalent per ton cane, (P} ++ Value of by-products, (P) ~ Sugarcane price equivalent per ton, ex-mill, (P) # Farmgate price of sugarcane “, (Pipicul) Pron ~ Philippine Sugar alocaton for sugar exports around 14% and for domesBic sugar around 85% and for reserved is 19% Export + rice (US, Domestic fr June 2009) is USD 0.4915 or Pt, 492/picul: domestic price is P1460.0@picul and for reserved P1,460.00picul. The exchange rate Is P48.00 per US dat © Ton cane fo piculsugaris 1.4 a «The price of molasses is estimated at P15.00 per gafon. “* Equivalent to farmer's share of 63%. 1 & ‘NiAConsult, Inc. 2010 ‘Youre E Main Repor 111r Jog Multipurpose Project, Phase I! Feasibility Updating Study Table 5.8 Rice Crop Production: Physical Input and Price Assumptions Input Unit —— Future Without Project Cuttvation “Mechanica | % area 90 “Animal area 10 Piha Seed (kg) 0 Pikg(inb) (ka) Pikg(hyb) Fertilizer N (nutrient, kg) 58 Pkg P (aulrient, kg) % Pik K (nutrient, kg) 35 Pkg Organic Fertizer (ka) Pig Foliar (liter) Phiter Threshing “Mechanical | % area 98 Piha “Manual” % area 2 Pha Insecticides (iter) 1 Phiter (kg) 0 Phkg Herbicides (iter) O75 Phiter (ka) 0 Pikg Moluckscides (iter) 07 Prter (ka) 2 Pikg Rodentcides (ok) 4 Plpk. INPUT Unit Unit Future With Project Cultivation “Mechanical | % area 100 Piha Animal % area 0 Piha Sood (ka) 60 Phkg(inb) (kg) 40 Pikg(hyb) Fertilizer N (nutrient, kg) 120 Pikg ci (nutrient, kg) wv Pikg * (nutient, ka) x Pig Organic Ferilizer (ko) Pig Foliar (iter) Pater ‘Threshing -Mechanical % area 100 Pha T% of gross -Manual® % area Piha ‘value of prod'n insecticides: (liter) 1 Phiter (ka) Pkg Herbicides (iter) 1 Priter (ko) Pikg Molluckscides (iter) 1 Prhiter (ko) 4 Pikg Rodentcides (kg) 4 Phkg © Econ, = Economic; Fin. = Financial Labor used for manual harvesting and threshing were imputed at opportunity cost S ‘NAConsult, Inc. 2010 ‘Voune E Main Repost 112Cc Bolog-Balog Multipurpose Project, Phase Feasibility Updating Study Table 5.9 Com Crop Production: Physical input and Price Assumptions Future Without Project Cultivation -Mechanical 3,500 Animal area 2,700 Seed (ka) Pikg(hyb) 160 (ka) Pikg(bio) 230 Fertlizer N (nutrient, kg) 50 Pkg 39.40 Fo (utiont, kg) |] 28 Pkg 36.48 « (autient, ka) | 28 Phkg 76.42 Organic Fertilizer (kg) Pg 75 Foliar A (iter) Priter Sheling “Mechanical ‘area 8 Pha 7% of gross value of “Manual area 2 Piha prod’n Insecticides (itor) 05 Priter 624 57 (a) 2 Pkg 455 400 Herbicides (iter) Piter (ka) Pikg Rodenticides (a) Phkg a 5 Future With Project Cultivation “Mechanical % area 0 Pha 3990 | 3500 Avimal % area 2 Phha 2700 | 2700 Seed (ka) 20 | Phat) 160 160 (kg) 20 | Phg(bio) 200 230 Fertilizer nN (nutter, kg) 0 Phkg arat | 3940 P (nutrient, kg) 0 Pkg 4247 | 35.48 « {utient, ka) 0 Pig o1s7 | 76.42 Organic Fertilizer (ko) Pkg 75 75 Foliar (iter) Phiter Sheling Mechanical area Pha T% of gross value of Manual %area Piha prodn Insecticides (ite) Phiter 624 (kg) Pikg 455 Herbicides (itr) Piter 667 (ta) Pkg 268 Rodentcides (ko) Pig 28 Econ, = Eoonomic; Fin = Financial Labor used for manual harvesting and sheling were imputed at opportunity cost & ‘NIAConsult, inc. 2010 Volume E Main Rapor 113Bolog-Balog Multipurpose Project, Phose It Feasibility Updoting Study Table 5.10 Mongo Crop Production: Physical Input and Price Assumptions Input Future Without Project Cultivation “Mechanic | %area Animal area Seed (kg) Fertlizer nN (austen, ko) P (autient, kg) « (outient, kg) Insecticides (iter) kg) Herbicides (iter) (ka) Rodentcides O) Future With Project Cultivation “Mechanical | % area Animal % area Seed to) Fertiizer N (outiont, kg) P (nutient, kg) « (nutrient, kg) Insecticides (iter) (kg) Herbicides (iter) (kg) Rodenticides (ka) Econ, = Economic, Fin, = Financial & WiAConsult, Inc. 2010 Volume F Min Repon 114Bolog-Balog Multipurpose Project, Phose i Feasibility Updating Study Table 5.11, Peanut Crop Production: Physical Input and Price Assumptions : Input Unit ms Future Without Project ‘ Cultivation “Mechanical | %area u Animal % area Seed (ka) 4 (outtient, kg) 7 + (outrient, kg) 4 {oultiant, kg) Organic Fertiizer (ia) Foliar (iter) Shelling % area 5% of gross value of % area prod’ Rodenticides (kg) Future With Project 7 Cultivation area area | Seed (kg) Ferilizer 1 (outient, kg) (nutrient, kg) (ction, kg) Sheling % area 5% of gross value of ‘area prod'n + Insecticides (iter) (ka) Fungicides (iter) 7 Eoon. = Eoonom Fin, = Financial & ‘NiAConsult, Inc. 2010 Volume t Moin Report 115)Bolog-Balog Multipurpose Project, Phase I Feasibility Updating Study Table 5.12 Eggplant Crop Production: Physical Input and Price Assumptions Unit Future Without Project Cultivation -Mechanical % area Animal % area Seed ka) Fertiizer N {nutiont, kg) P (nutrient, kg) * (nutriont, kg) Organic Fertilizer (ko) Foliar (iter) Harvesting Mechanical | % area area Insecticides (iter) (ka) Rodentcides. (iter) (a) Fungicides (iter) (kg) Future With Project Cultivation “Mechanical | % area ‘area 20 2700 Seed (ka) 08 8,000 (nutrient, kg) 8 30.40 (outent, kg) 80 35.48 (outriont, kg) ° 76.42 Organic Fertizer ko) 400 75 Foliar (iter 0 Insecticides (iter) 4 saT (ko) 4 400 Herbicides {iter) 585 tka) 235 Fungicides (iter) 0 (kg) 2 490_} 3,500 2,700 8,000 39.40 BB 76.42 7.50 ‘= Econ = Economic, Fin. = Finandial Labor used for manual harvesting and sorting were imputed at opportunity cost. ‘NiAConsult, Inc. 2010 ‘Voume k Main Repo 116Bolog-Balog Multipurpose Project, Phase I Feasibility Updoting Study Table 5.13 Tomato Crop Production: Physical Input and Price Assumptions | Unit [re T aued Input Future Without Project Cuttvation “Mechanical | % area 3500 -Animal area 2,700 Seed ro) 3,800 Fertilizer N (nutrient, kg) 39.40 P (nutrient, kg) 35.48 *« (nutont, kg) 7642 Organic Fertilizer (kg) 75 Insacticides: (iter) 7 (kg) Herbicides: liter) (ka) Fungicides (iter) (ka) Future With Project Cultivation “Mechanical | % area cy 3,500 Animal %area a 2,700 Seed (9) 04 3,800 Feriizer N (outent, ka) % 30.40 P (nuit, kg) % 35.48 * {eutient, kg) 0 7642 Organic Fertiizer ) 100 7.50 Insecticides (iter) 2 m7 oo) 2 400 Herbicides (iter) 0 585 (ka) 0 Fungicides (lites) 0 kg) 2 490 | "7 Econ, = Economic, Fin = Finandal & ‘NiAConsult, Inc. 2010 ‘Voune Eman Rape 117Baleg-Balog Multipurpose Project, Phase It Feasibility Updating Study Table 5.14 Sweet Potato Crop Production: Physical Input and Price Assumptions Input Future Without Project Animal Cuttings Fertilizer N P «K Organic Fertilizer Insecticides Herbicides Future With Project P * Organic Fertilizer Insecticides. Herbicides ‘a Econ, = Economic; Fin. =Financial ‘NIAConsult, Cultivation -Mechanical Cuttvation -Mechanical “Animal Cuttings: Fertilizer N (liter) % area bundles Rainfed]imgated] Unit] Input Price al Econ. | Fin. 3,990| 3,500] 2,700] 2,700] 120/120) 47.11] 39.49] 3,990] 3,500} 2,700] 2,700] 120} 120 4711] 39.44 42.47| 35.48] 91.57] 76.42| 75 75| 624] 547] 456] 400) ‘vote E Main Report 118Feasibility Updating Study Table 5.15 Okra Crop Production: Physical Input and Price Assumptions. Input Price a/ Future Without Project i Cultivation ~Mechanical bet ~Animal Seed drilled Fertilizer N L ° * Insecticides Herbicides Future With Project Cuttvation -Mechanical Animal Seed riled Fertilizer N a K Insecticides, Herbicides ‘@”_ oon. = Economic; Fin, =Financial & WIAConsult, Inc. 2010 ‘Voure F Main Roper 119Bolog-Bolog Multipurpose Project, Phose It Feasibility Updating Study Table 5.16 Turnip Crop Production: Physical Input and Price Assumptions FUTURE WITHOUT PROJECT Cuttivation “Mechanical -Animal Seed Drilled Fertilizer insecticides Fungicides Cultivation “Mechanical “Animal Seed Drilled Fertilizer N P * Insecticides: Fungicides ‘a Econ. = Economic; Fin, =Financial & WiAConsuilt, Inc. 2010 ‘Valune Main Roper 120Bolog- Balog Multipurpose Project, Phase il Feasibility Updating Study Table 5.17 Stringbeans Crop Production: Physical Input and Price Assumptions Herbicides. Cuttivation Seed Fertilizer Insecticides Fungicides Herbicides FUTURE WITHOUT PROJECT Cuttivation -Mechanical Animal Seed Fertiizer N P * Insecticides Fungicides FUTURE WITH PROJECT -Mechanical “Animal N * « ‘a! Econ, = Economic; Fin. =Financlal & iAConsult, Inc. 2010 ‘Volume E Main Repo 121= Bolog-Balog Multipurpose Project, Phase It Feasibility Updeting Study Table 5.18 _Bittergourd/Ampalaya Crop Production: Physical Input and Price Assumptions, FUTURE WITHOUT PROJECT a Cuttivation -Mechanical Animal Seed Fertilizer N ie P K Organic Fertilizer = Trellis and other materials Insecticides Le Fungicides FUTURE WITH PROJECT Cuttvation “Mechanical “Animal Seed Fertilizer N P * ca Omganic Fertilizer Trelis and other materials Insecticides Fungicides: ‘al_ Econ. = Economic ; Fin. Hl & NiAConsullt, Inc. 2010 ‘Vouune F Wain Repon 122Bolog-Balog Multipurpose Project, Phase I Feasibility Updating Study | Table 5.19 Squash Crop Production: Physical input and Price Assumptions Input Price af Econ. | _ Fin. Input Unit | Rainfed] irrigated] Unit FUTURE WITHOUT PROJECT Cultivation “Mechanical % area 60] Animal % area 40/ Seed Driled 9) 5 . Fertilizer N |(rutrient,kg.) 54) - |(nwtrient, ka.) 30) z po K |{nutrient, kg.) 30] Pikg 76.42] 76.42) Organic Fertilizer (9) 100) Pikg 7.50) 7.50) Insecticides: liter) 1.0} Piliter: 624) 847] L (ko) 20| Pig | 456) 400) Herbicides Miter) Phiter FUTURE WITH PROJECT Cutivation “Mechanical | % area 80] “Animal area 2a} Seed «@) 5 = Fertilizer N rutin a) 60 P utente) 30] « (ution. kg.) 30) 7 Organic Fertiizer 9) 4109] Insecticides iter 2 'g 4 Herbicides liter i ‘a’ Econ, = Economic, Fin. =Financial ro & NiAConsult, Inc. 2010 Volume i Main Report 123r Balog-Balog Multipurpose Project, Phose Il Feasibility Updating Study Table 5.20 Sugarcane Crop Production: Physical Input and Price Assumptions. (Cuttivation Cuttings Festiizer Insecticides Herbicides Cuttivation Seed Fertilizer Trput Price af Input Future Without Project “Mechanical “Animal N P K Unit Econ. 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