The Weather and Climate Authority

UPDATE ON EL NIÑO
National Forum on El Nino (111th COF)
22 March 2019
Amihan Conference Room
3/22/2019 PAGASA, Quezon City 1
Contents:
• El Nino Update and outlook
• What do we expect?
• Forecast of Rainfall, Temperature, Tropical Cyclones, Dry days
• Dry Spell /Drought Outlook
• Actions taken/to be taken for the current El Nino
• Summary

3/22/2019 2
 PAGASA ENSO Alert System Status

• Weak El Niño is present in the Tropical Pacific;

• The PAGASA ENSO Alert System is El Niño Advisory
• Varying impacts are present and becoming severe

3/22/2019 3
 CPC/IRI OFFICIAL NINO3.4 Forecast

Season La Niña Neutral El Niño

FMA 2019 0% 11% 89%
MAM 2019 0% 20% 80%
AMJ 2019 1% 26% 73%
MJJ 2019 2% 32% 66%
JJA 2019 3% 36% 61%
JAS 2019 6% 37% 57%
ASO 2019 10% 39% 51%
SON 2019 12% 38% 50%
OND 2019 14% 37% 49%

3/22/2019 4
NINO3.4 Model Forecasts

Models indicate weak or even

moderate strength El Niño
conditions for the Mar-May
season, continuing into June-Aug
and Aug-Oct 2019 season,
weakening but not disappearing
Oct-Dec 2019 season.

Source: International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society.

3/22/2019
NOTE: Forecasts are better when made between June and December than when 5
they are made between February and May.
WHAT DO WE EXPECT?
OUTLOOK FOR APRIL to SEPTEMBER 2019
• Rainfall
• Temperature
• Tropical Cyclones
• Dry Spell/Drought Outlook

3/22/2019 6
 about our
Rainfall
Maps..

Percent of Normal = Forecast Rainfall x 100%

Normal Rainfall
PERCENTAGE (%) RAINFALL CONDITION

Less than 40 way below normal

41 – 80 below normal
81 – 120 near normal
Greater than 120 above normal

3/22/2019 7
Updated : 19 march 2019
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Normal (mm) April 2019
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal

No. of provinces
3/22/2019 likely to 8
experience: 26 57 0 0
Updated : 19 march 2019
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Normal (mm) MAY 2019
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal

No. of provinces
3/22/2019
likely to
9
experience: 0 34 49 0
Updated : 19 march 2019
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Normal (mm) JUNE 2019
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal

No. of provinces
3/22/2019 likely to 10
experience: 0 32 51 0
Updated : 19 march 2019
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Normal (mm) JULY 2019
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal

No. of provinces
3/22/2019 likely to 11
experience: 0 5 76 2
Updated : 19 march 2019
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Normal (mm) AUGUST 2019
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal

No. of provinces
3/22/2019 12
likely to experience: 5 16 35 27
Updated : 19 march 2019
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Normal (mm) SEPTEMBER 2019
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal

No. of
3/22/2019 provinces 13
likely to experience: 2 60 17 4
 FORECAST RAINFALL in Percent of Normal FORECAST RAINFALL in Percent of Normal
(APRIL - SEPTEMBER 2019) as of March 19, 2019 (APRIL - SEPTEMBER 2019) as of March 19, 2019
PROVINCE APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER
PROVINCE APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)
CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR) AKLAN 28.7 72.4 82.5 83.8 112.7 48.9
ABRA 35.7 87.5 65.3 113.4 36.9 124.3 ANTIQUE 27.5 80.0 75.4 91.4 109.6 45.4
BENGUET 42.6 85.8 61.0 113.4 41.8 130.0 CAPIZ 26.8 73.8 83.6 81.7 107.8 48.4
IFUGAO 45.4 89.7 69.8 112.5 51.0 109.4 GUIMARAS 22.2 91.0 80.6 100.6 115.2 47.0
KALINGA 39.4 89.0 67.7 114.1 46.1 106.7 ILOILO 25.6 82.1 80.2 89.8 108.7 46.2
APAYAO 34.1 87.7 60.4 114.8 47.2 106.2 NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 37.3 81.9 91.9 95.9 134.4 56.1
REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 42.4 88.9 68.1 114.7 44.8 114.7
NEGROS ORIENTAL 34.1 80.4 96.4 90.1 138.7 54.6
REGION I BOHOL 60.2 70.7 95.0 89.6 115.5 58.3
ILOCOS NORTE 16.5 85.8 62.8 121.8 36.6 117.7 CEBU 42.7 68.5 97.6 82.3 137.5 57.7
ILOCOS SUR 37.3 86.1 64.9 120.7 37.1 133.1 SIQUIJOR 38.5 78.3 97.5 87.5 125.8 51.5
LA UNION 45.1 83.3 60.2 111.0 39.0 130.0 REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)
PANGASINAN 51.2 79.4 61.3 107.5 53.2 107.0 BILIRAN 49.3 66.9 76.3 78.6 135.8 26.1
REGION II EASTERN SAMAR 46.1 76.6 88.3 83.7 128.1 102.1
BATANES 59.2 82.9 96.7 113.3 33.3 72.9 LEYTE 56.2 67.8 89.3 86.3 129.2 45.8
NORTHERN SAMAR 43.2 73.0 76.8 80.6 118.2 41.8
CAGAYAN 35.1 88.8 64.3 116.1 57.7 94.2
SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 48.8 71.3 79.0 81.1 128.2 64.8
ISABELA 47.6 91.7 80.0 110.0 74.4 76.9 SOUTHERN LEYTE 52.1 70.2 86.4 92.7 113.7 50.0
NUEVA VIZCAYA 50.9 89.2 70.8 116.6 66.9 104.0 REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)
QUIRINO 63.2 91.5 83.1 109.3 88.8 70.3 ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 44.8 81.3 96.0 87.1 111.2 50.2
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON) ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 57.7 83.1 96.2 87.1 114.7 52.1
BATAAN 30.4 70.7 61.0 102.9 66.8 79.6 ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 52.9 84.2 95.9 87.6 115.3 53.6
BULACAN 56.4 85.2 73.1 92.5 73.8 75.1 REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)
NUEVA ECIJA 35.1 87.6 73.0 102.3 87.1 88.5 BUKIDNON 51.6 91.0 95.1 88.0 85.3 77.4
CAMIGUIN 55.7 81.1 93.6 91.4 107.0 60.8
PAMPANGA 56.1 78.1 64.9 96.3 72.6 81.1
LANAO DEL NORTE 55.4 82.9 93.2 88.7 104.8 67.6
TARLAC 40.7 78.7 63.4 101.9 70.5 93.6
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 45.8 78.8 95.7 87.4 106.1 57.2
ZAMBALES 41.9 72.9 60.7 103.7 66.1 90.8 MISAMIS ORIENTAL 53.1 86.8 96.4 87.1 97.6 67.4
AURORA 68.3 91.0 86.9 98.1 103.4 61.0 REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION COMPOSTELA VALLEY 58.9 95.4 100.2 83.6 91.0 72.0
METRO MANILA 54.5 73.5 70.5 100.0 75.3 71.9 DAVAO CITY 70.9 94.2 95.6 91.9 107.4 101.3
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON) DAVAO DEL NORTE 60.5 95.0 98.7 86.6 88.5 83.7
BATANGAS 62.3 75.5 73.8 101.8 97.0 60.9 DAVAO DEL SUR 67.4 92.0 89.8 89.9 118.3 98.1
DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 59.3 90.9 86.4 83.1 106.2 75.6
CAVITE 9.5 68.8 68.2 103.9 72.4 70.0
DAVAO ORIENTAL 61.2 93.9 97.7 84.5 100.2 70.9
LAGUNA 28.9 76.8 75.0 91.8 90.4 68.6
REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
RIZAL 46.5 80.8 75.2 92.5 83.5 74.9 SOUTH COTABATO 57.4 89.0 85.3 82.0 107.9 70.5
QUEZON 44.0 75.5 80.3 87.5 140.6 56.3 COTABATO 64.4 89.2 91.2 91.3 117.1 89.4
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA) SARANGANI 56.5 89.7 84.7 80.4 101.7 67.0
MARINDUQUE 41.2 72.3 81.4 96.4 158.8 40.4 SULTAN KUDARAT 60.9 87.7 88.6 85.5 118.4 70.7
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 36.3 79.0 74.2 100.7 126.6 67.8 REGION XIII- CARAGA
ORIENTAL MINDORO 37.8 79.7 77.6 98.8 133.0 59.5 AGUSAN DEL NORTE 68.5 87.6 98.6 79.4 116.2 50.2
ROMBLON 31.8 66.2 84.5 93.7 134.2 44.6 AGUSAN DEL SUR 65.4 93.1 103.4 79.5 102.1 53.8
DINAGAT ISLANDS 65.7 79.4 82.5 82.6 123.5 44.9
PALAWAN 29.8 81.5 78.3 94.6 145.2 52.3
SURIGAO DEL NORTE 67.9 84.0 86.3 83.3 125.8 52.8
REGION V (BICOL) SURIGAO DEL SUR 70.3 91.6 102.2 79.3 125.1 49.5
ALBAY 54.6 70.3 82.8 85.1 129.0 49.9 ARMM
CAMARINES NORTE 31.0 71.4 81.5 84.7 162.2 37.2 BASILAN 66.6 91.3 96.9 89.0 127.2 42.0
CAMARINES SUR 38.6 70.2 83.3 82.4 139.5 40.3 MAGUINDANAO 66.6 85.6 89.9 88.1 125.8 72.8
CATANDUANES 39.3 71.4 86.1 79.2 143.6 43.4 LANAO DEL SUR 60.1 85.3 91.5 89.7 106.9 73.3 14
3/22/2019 MASBATE 32.3 68.1 78.9 92.2 142.0 44.6 SULU 50.6 89.4 91.2 90.0 121.6 56.7
SORSOGON 48.0 70.9 80.9 88.0 129.7 46.1 TAWI-TAWI 48.5 87.3 88.7 91.5 122.8 59.4
 PROVINCE APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER
CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR) MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN
ABRA 6.3 43.1 29.3 153.3 187.9 169.1 146.6 215.4 184.0 322.2 768.8 516.9 147.9 240.7 189.0 372.6 575.5 475.3
BENGUET 39.2 47.3 45.8 201.5 242.8 224.3 199.9 233.4 215.6 703.8 942.3 842.7 253.3 345.9 300.9 564.8 685.7 642.8
IFUGAO 39.7 47.4 44.4 167.7 218.7 191.7 129.0 202.6 166.0 252.4 828.2 512.4 153.2 267.8 202.4 251.1 620.0 437.5
KALINGA 18.9 44.7 36.3 138.4 179.0 157.6 112.8 183.2 139.3 236.8 598.5 345.9 133.6 209.3 160.8 229.8 495.3 337.7
APAYAO 15.8 40.2 30.9 132.0 158.1 147.0 110.6 159.6 133.7 224.8 471.3 316.2 127.7 167.8 144.8 270.7 422.3 343.7
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 33.4 46.5 43.3 156.4 205.4 180.2 121.9 209.4 165.9 260.3 811.3 522.1 153.6 254.1 199.0 257.1 618.0 441.6
REGION I
ILOCOS NORTE 0.5 27.6 11.7 156.0 173.0 165.2 151.3 202.8 174.3 375.3 598.5 488.9 137.1 194.5 169.9 384.3 504.4 454.1
ILOCOS SUR 4.3 47.1 29.8 170.3 222.2 188.7 193.2 235.6 217.5 507.0 951.7 783.0 164.3 303.9 246.2 497.0 685.8 584.2
LA UNION 41.0 47.1 45.7 203.1 228.5 215.9 222.8 241.1 234.7 661.3 951.7 848.1 280.5 326.1 305.2 564.7 685.5 646.3
PANGASINAN 10.8 41.3 35.1 171.0 221.0 187.6 186.5 261.3 227.7 473.6 711.0 566.3 263.0 444.7 326.4 386.9 583.5 462.2
REGION II
BATANES 26.6 43.4 32.6 184.2 192.6 188.8 225.0 246.1 236.7 268.3 301.4 277.6 92.9 158.3 123.1 175.5 307.6 245.9
CAGAYAN 9.4 49.7 27.0 125.0 178.7 138.1 105.1 204.4 118.2 196.7 497.6 251.7 116.9 173.9 142.0 212.2 395.3 252.8
ISABELA 18.2 92.3 47.6 137.4 207.9 171.0 111.3 184.0 140.6 195.2 413.9 247.2 139.1 236.5 178.5 135.5 376.0 200.8
NUEVA VIZCAYA 36.4 166.1 63.0 192.8 237.2 217.6 159.1 204.5 183.0 335.7 821.9 578.0 181.3 305.8 237.1 231.1 619.9 440.5
QUIRINO 44.0 166.1 93.2 192.0 237.5 215.6 154.3 193.2 178.1 223.3 505.7 326.7 160.7 225.5 196.7 131.7 367.8 231.6
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON)
BATAAN 8.5 42.2 22.1 117.2 143.8 130.6 191.0 234.9 214.3 456.4 682.5 578.9 339.2 476.3 417.7 285.5 393.9 346.4
BULACAN 5.7 55.8 18.6 128.3 192.6 168.0 192.8 207.2 199.3 297.5 556.0 412.7 264.0 410.8 332.5 265.0 326.7 288.8
NUEVA ECIJA 4.8 123.3 36.1 162.6 222.2 193.6 179.6 204.8 188.9 262.2 635.7 401.6 231.4 418.5 317.6 228.7 496.9 315.2
PAMPANGA 7.5 40.8 27.2 132.7 171.4 153.5 196.0 238.9 212.2 414.4 726.7 569.8 360.9 502.3 434.4 297.8 416.6 350.1
TARLAC 8.8 37.9 27.8 156.8 188.2 168.4 195.0 256.5 220.6 441.6 779.1 581.3 333.6 546.7 444.5 314.2 448.0 385.0
ZAMBALES 13.6 43.5 26.0 137.4 173.9 161.1 226.3 278.2 254.5 572.0 897.3 758.4 381.0 606.9 509.8 380.7 474.4 434.9
AURORA 33.6 192.2 128.9 184.1 250.1 220.9 176.9 208.3 195.4 234.9 357.0 276.7 164.4 272.8 219.3 126.5 285.1 185.1
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
METRO MANILA 7.0 40.2 21.8 103.1 152.3 123.9 178.8 196.7 188.6 406.0 479.1 441.6 269.5 415.1 348.0 229.7 284.9 262.7
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)
BATANGAS 12.2 52.7 37.4 97.7 144.4 116.8 173.0 199.8 179.8 236.1 405.1 298.0 201.1 315.7 240.6 105.6 249.5 159.2
CAVITE 1.2 30.6 13.2 98.7 113.2 103.8 174.9 184.2 178.2 341.2 442.7 389.6 229.2 313.6 271.9 190.1 253.3 224.0
LAGUNA 6.8 96.4 36.1 99.2 142.2 116.5 172.7 191.5 179.5 238.0 428.5 316.5 193.9 322.8 231.4 144.8 269.1 210.3
RIZAL 19.5 96.9 59.0 113.2 174.5 143.1 180.1 205.6 194.7 300.5 435.8 378.3 223.4 380.7 297.1 212.3 288.2 268.7
QUEZON 29.1 123.1 57.8 91.4 195.7 123.9 130.5 209.4 173.2 142.5 352.1 234.2 195.6 294.2 251.3 84.9 290.4 167.2
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)
MARINDUQUE 39.0 46.4 41.0 106.1 119.6 112.2 168.8 198.1 182.2 241.6 256.2 251.7 268.0 305.5 285.5 98.7 118.6 104.8
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 6.1 46.6 26.5 127.5 147.2 138.6 196.0 250.6 232.4 280.1 460.6 357.7 292.2 579.9 431.5 158.3 321.3 238.8
ORIENTAL MINDORO 9.0 53.8 33.9 124.0 157.0 138.9 201.1 245.6 227.1 258.2 422.5 313.7 266.2 524.6 376.2 127.5 284.5 193.7
ROMBLON 19.8 40.4 26.0 93.2 122.1 100.9 188.6 227.0 207.7 215.4 293.0 254.3 250.3 348.7 301.2 99.2 162.8 123.4
PALAWAN 1.8 25.2 19.8 109.3 134.9 117.7 147.0 244.5 190.1 141.3 506.5 270.3 333.8 682.9 387.6 86.5 353.9 155.4
REGION V (BICOL)
ALBAY 60.0 105.1 88.0 106.4 120.0 113.9 169.7 188.1 179.5 188.6 234.9 221.9 234.8 284.4 271.2 106.4 141.7 135.5
CAMARINES NORTE 30.2 58.7 36.8 100.8 124.8 104.9 149.3 164.5 154.2 188.0 211.3 198.6 244.9 269.6 259.3 85.1 134.3 99.6
CAMARINES SUR 35.2 83.1 50.9 100.8 114.0 106.8 152.0 191.3 174.3 194.1 228.3 209.5 244.2 283.3 260.9 85.0 136.1 109.2
CATANDUANES 51.0 62.1 56.0 108.9 112.4 110.3 185.3 191.9 190.3 186.6 198.9 192.4 231.9 245.3 237.8 96.0 112.8 102.9

3/22/2019
MASBATE 14.1 51.5 29.2 91.1 103.6 95.6 130.9 202.6 148.2 199.7 238.1 215.8 235.8 287.3 263.7 63.9 131.6 101.8 15
SORSOGON 40.1 98.8 70.4 102.2 116.0 110.0 141.2 178.5 162.3 187.2 230.8 204.7 235.1 279.3 254.2 83.7 141.1 116.1
 PROVINCE APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER
REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS) MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN
AKLAN 19.3 29.0 24.4 101.7 116.0 108.8 213.1 227.5 219.6 200.0 302.0 229.0 232.6 351.7 277.4 108.7 165.1 123.6
ANTIQUE 13.5 29.1 19.5 108.5 126.2 118.5 205.3 242.0 214.7 229.6 409.5 272.4 279.2 490.4 344.1 109.8 260.5 124.3
CAPIZ 16.4 28.2 20.4 97.2 116.0 106.2 212.8 244.3 226.3 198.9 263.1 222.6 218.5 321.0 274.1 108.7 130.9 115.9
GUIMARAS 13.8 25.6 17.8 125.6 138.5 130.9 248.3 271.1 259.7 353.7 412.0 378.8 418.0 469.5 441.1 147.7 175.0 158.6
ILOILO 11.4 41.2 19.1 96.9 125.9 115.9 192.2 264.8 236.0 213.9 358.3 280.9 247.7 417.8 348.4 112.1 153.0 126.8
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 22.2 40.9 32.3 101.1 155.2 124.2 201.2 287.6 256.6 216.3 434.3 354.9 273.7 520.4 398.0 120.2 199.8 172.3
REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)
NEGROS ORIENTAL 12.6 41.3 28.8 80.9 138.8 105.0 162.8 281.8 205.7 108.9 418.0 223.5 159.6 468.2 274.6 76.3 199.3 126.9
BOHOL 23.2 56.1 45.9 65.4 79.2 71.4 115.7 161.6 130.1 109.6 152.5 128.5 132.1 186.8 151.1 75.5 111.9 94.6
CEBU 16.5 56.1 34.1 63.2 102.0 85.3 150.1 233.4 194.9 120.3 269.1 191.8 175.2 303.1 244.6 73.0 157.6 122.9
SIQUIJOR 19.1 38.8 30.0 82.7 88.1 85.4 143.8 158.5 151.8 100.1 109.0 103.2 140.9 149.6 144.8 69.5 71.9 70.1
REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)
BILIRAN 49.2 63.9 56.4 97.3 102.0 100.3 136.9 152.7 146.8 182.4 196.8 190.9 247.9 259.4 255.4 55.2 77.1 64.9
EASTERN SAMAR 62.0 89.0 71.8 113.6 148.8 129.1 161.9 199.0 187.8 138.4 233.5 202.5 188.5 222.9 205.7 71.4 256.2 197.2
LEYTE 29.3 76.1 61.0 68.7 111.6 92.8 120.9 174.7 155.8 139.0 191.7 155.8 180.1 256.8 219.8 61.6 135.9 90.0
NORTHERN SAMAR 37.1 62.8 58.2 98.9 124.3 113.0 129.7 181.5 156.8 166.4 214.6 183.3 195.3 252.4 208.6 55.3 183.4 90.8
SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 47.8 77.7 64.2 96.7 135.8 115.7 127.5 190.7 165.2 151.3 230.8 202.4 206.0 263.5 228.9 52.8 225.8 133.7
SOUTHERN LEYTE 29.2 129.5 52.6 67.7 100.1 83.8 111.1 146.6 125.3 148.0 168.7 160.2 173.0 208.5 192.2 86.0 111.9 99.8
REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 25.4 54.2 42.6 97.3 125.2 113.4 165.1 253.5 223.1 136.2 232.3 200.9 168.0 260.5 225.1 71.2 125.9 106.4
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 36.3 56.8 53.0 97.4 137.3 120.4 160.3 256.6 222.9 138.4 232.8 196.6 194.5 243.1 221.3 64.5 130.2 107.5
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 49.3 56.8 51.9 108.7 126.0 117.9 180.2 241.6 214.9 163.7 217.6 196.1 213.2 239.9 226.7 89.6 122.4 111.9
REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)
BUKIDNON 23.7 94.0 63.0 130.8 197.9 177.2 207.7 284.3 261.6 190.0 315.9 272.3 153.2 291.1 215.5 140.6 238.3 205.7
CAMIGUIN 70.2 77.0 74.6 96.6 105.8 101.1 134.0 146.3 139.6 140.5 155.4 146.1 148.3 160.8 154.1 103.0 113.0 107.5
LANAO DEL NORTE 34.7 84.3 59.3 131.4 157.8 142.3 224.6 258.5 245.0 215.0 259.0 232.5 202.1 253.5 227.4 126.0 192.8 151.8
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 33.3 59.6 47.2 105.6 133.4 121.0 207.5 255.4 236.5 168.5 231.7 207.1 184.2 240.0 214.1 93.6 133.3 119.2
MISAMIS ORIENTAL 23.8 79.8 53.8 110.4 149.3 128.6 151.3 239.6 198.4 123.3 249.3 186.8 137.8 208.3 166.4 88.4 188.6 145.5
REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)
COMPOSTELA VALLEY 62.8 146.8 81.0 176.3 199.1 186.1 193.0 258.6 223.4 109.5 197.2 138.0 139.9 186.5 162.0 108.6 177.6 136.8
DAVAO CITY 86.1 147.2 119.4 190.9 218.5 204.3 218.2 274.5 245.9 178.3 277.0 238.2 189.3 310.6 268.7 195.8 238.4 226.3
DAVAO DEL NORTE 64.7 130.6 84.2 182.0 205.0 192.7 197.5 276.5 246.9 139.7 277.3 197.5 149.1 257.2 195.2 134.4 231.1 186.0
DAVAO DEL SUR 59.2 146.8 105.4 139.1 209.2 173.8 156.1 228.1 194.6 143.4 243.2 198.8 170.3 297.4 239.9 131.7 224.2 186.6
DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 49.2 104.3 72.3 113.1 167.5 131.8 120.8 180.8 141.0 87.8 180.4 119.6 111.8 221.1 149.2 69.9 177.2 110.0
DAVAO ORIENTAL 72.2 161.0 89.7 148.1 200.3 177.3 167.6 244.1 197.6 109.5 154.9 128.0 154.6 194.2 168.1 103.1 169.3 124.3
REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
SOUTH COTABATO 31.2 77.1 59.1 101.5 159.6 130.1 117.3 202.1 152.7 78.5 206.4 129.8 88.2 234.9 155.1 68.3 151.3 102.2
COTABATO 79.6 136.6 96.2 167.9 204.0 188.8 204.4 283.7 260.3 215.0 316.0 285.9 243.9 316.5 290.3 173.5 239.2 213.5
SARANGANI 32.2 77.8 55.8 105.5 143.5 117.7 115.0 167.6 130.0 76.6 152.4 98.4 94.1 180.9 120.2 64.1 138.4 83.7
SULTAN KUDARAT 68.1 98.9 78.7 132.9 174.0 153.1 164.9 234.9 198.0 142.0 254.1 194.7 160.3 275.1 218.9 95.7 189.1 132.8
REGION XIII- CARAGA
AGUSAN DEL NORTE 75.3 123.2 85.8 113.7 152.6 129.1 124.8 214.4 172.2 106.0 172.1 123.4 125.0 152.3 139.7 67.8 127.5 83.6
AGUSAN DEL SUR 66.9 256.2 113.0 131.3 213.9 177.2 158.8 269.5 238.0 108.9 250.1 172.3 142.7 224.9 172.8 68.7 192.9 116.3
DINAGAT ISLANDS 87.0 150.9 115.7 104.5 118.7 111.4 119.1 144.0 130.2 143.2 159.5 155.3 174.8 201.6 191.3 69.2 92.0 83.9
SURIGAO DEL NORTE 88.4 163.1 124.4 108.1 137.8 122.2 113.3 160.3 132.8 112.7 158.8 138.6 145.5 194.2 164.1 74.0 100.5 86.7
SURIGAO DEL SUR 87.2 260.1 140.4 128.5 218.5 170.5 147.4 250.4 211.2 110.1 177.0 143.1 147.7 233.3 190.4 69.5 103.4 85.7
ARMM
BASILAN 50.2 56.7 54.5 101.7 111.2 106.2 160.9 173.2 164.9 140.3 165.8 147.9 199.0 226.8 204.1 66.5 91.5 74.6
MAGUINDANAO 75.7 106.5 92.1 158.1 190.8 175.9 197.7 276.5 245.3 202.4 304.2 263.0 231.1 320.4 283.5 135.0 208.9 166.5
LANAO DEL SUR 52.5 100.5 80.6 141.9 188.3 165.0 237.3 283.7 262.9 233.3 315.7 274.6 217.8 297.1 257.2 140.9 226.3 182.2
3/22/2019 SULU 36.9 56.8 48.2 111.8 122.9 118.3 175.1 203.2 193.9 168.3 228.4 207.0 209.8 272.5 251.5 94.8 132.9 121.8 16
TAWI-TAWI 29.8 48.1 46.7 119.5 131.3 128.8 207.4 214.4 208.0 232.4 274.8 235.7 273.6 349.3 279.4 135.9 154.9 137.3
 Monthly Rainfall
Forecast

Updated : 19 march 2019

Rainfall Condition (based

on recent conditions):
April – September 2019

3/22/2019 17
Updated : 19 march 2019

PROBABILISTIC FORECAST

How certain or
uncertain are
we?

Forecasting rainfall in
probabilistic terms is a
way of expressing
uncertainty in the
future
weather/climate.

3/22/2019 18
 Updated : 19 March 2019

NUMBER OF PROVINCES THAT WILL LIKELY RECEIVE…

Way below Below

MONTH Near Normal Above Normal
Normal Normal

APRIL 2019 26 57 0 0

MAY 2019 0 34 49 0

JUNE 2019 0 32 51 0

JULY 2019 0 5 76 2

AUGUST 2019 5 16 35 27

SEPTEMBER 2019 2 60 17 4

3/22/2019 Slide # 19
 DRY SPELL/DROUGHT OUTLOOK
APRIL TO JUNE 2019

3/22/2019 20
 OUTLOOK OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES
By End of April 2019
AREAS DRY DRY SPELL
CONDITION
NONE (12)
LUZON IFUGAO, BATANES, CAGAYAN,
ISABELA,
NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO,
BULACAN, PAMPANGA, TARLAC,
AURORA, BATANGAS, RIZAL
NONE (3)
VISAYAS BOHOL, CEBU, SOUTHERN LEYTE
NONE (17)
MINDANAO BUKIDNON, CAMIGUIN, LANAO
DEL NORTE, MISAMIS ORIENTAL,
COMPOSTELA VALLEY, DAVAO
CITY, DAVAO DEL NORTE, DAVAO
DEL SUR, DAVAO OCCIDENTAL,
DAVAO ORIENTAL, NORTH
COTABATO, SARANGANI, AGUSAN
61% OF THE COUNTRY WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE DROUGHT; DEL NORTE, AGUSAN DEL SUR,
SURIGAO DEL SUR, BASILAN,
39% OF THE COUNTRY WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL LANAO DEL SUR
3/22/2019 TOTAL 0 32
DROUGHT
(27)
ABRA, BENGUET, KALINGA, APAYAO,
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE, ILOCOS NORTE,
LA UNION, PANGASINAN, BATAAN,
NUEVA ECIJA, ZAMBALES, METRO
MANILA, CAVITE, LAGUNA, QUEZON,
MARINDUQUE, OCCIDENTAL
MINDORO, ORIENTAL MINDORO,
ROMBLON, PALAWAN, ALBAY,
CAMARINES NORTE, CAMARINES SUR,
CATANDUANES, MASBATE, SORSOGON
(13)
AKLAN, ANTIQUE, CAPIZ, GUIMARAS,
ILOILO, NEGROS OCCIDENTAL, NEGROS
ORIENTAL, SIQUIJOR, BILIRAN,
EASTERN SAMAR, LEYTE, NORTHERN
SAMAR, SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR)
(11)
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE,
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR, ZAMBOANGA
SIBUGAY, MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL,
SOUTH COTABATO, SULTAN KUDARAT,
DINAGAT ISLANDS, SURIGAO DEL
NORTE, MAGUINDANAO, SULU, TAWI-
TAWI
51
Slide # 13
 OUTLOOK OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES
By End of May 2019
AREAS DRY DRY SPELL DROUGHT
CONDITION
LUZON NONE NONE (20)
PANGASINAN, BATAAN,
PAMPANGA, TARLAC,
ZAMBALES, METRO MANILA,
BATANGAS, CAVITE, LAGUNA,
QUEZON, MARINDUQUE,
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO,
ORIENTAL MINDORO,
ROMBLON, ALBAY, CAMARINES
NORTE, CAMARINES SUR,
CATANDUANES, MASBATE,
SORSOGON

VISAYAS NONE (3) (9)

BOHOL, CEBU, AKLAN, ANTIQUE, CAPIZ,
SOUTHERN LEYTE SIQUIJOR, BILIRAN, EASTERN
SAMAR, LEYTE, NORTHERN
SAMAR, SAMAR (WESTERN
SAMAR)
MINDANAO NONE NONE (2)
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL, DINAGAT
37% OF THE COUNTRY WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE DROUGHT; ISLANDS
4% OF THE3/22/2019
COUNTRY WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL TOTAL 0 3 31
Slide # 14
 OUTLOOK OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES
By End of June 2019
AREAS DRY DRY SPELL DROUGHT
CONDITION
LUZON NONE NONE (12)
PANGASINAN, BATAAN,
PAMPANGA, TARLAC,
ZAMBALES, METRO MANILA,
BATANGAS, CAVITE, LAGUNA,
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO,
ORIENTAL MINDORO, MASBATE
VISAYAS NONE NONE (4)
ANTIQUE, BILIRAN, NORTHERN
SAMAR, SAMAR (WESTERN
SAMAR)

MINDANAO NONE NONE NONE

TOTAL 0 0 16

19% OF THE COUNTRY WILL LIKELY

EXPERIENCE
3/22/2019
DROUGHT Slide # 15
 FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL for selected Dams and Lakes in
(mm) and (%N)
FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL (APRIL - SEPTEMBER 2019 )
NAME Angat Watershed Lake Buhi Lake Lanao Magat Watershed Malinao Watershed Pantabangan Watershed San Roque Cascade WS

MIN 9.6 45.8 23.7 37.8 41.3 42.4 36.7

MAX 57.4 103.2 91.9 69.5 52.9 131.3 47.2
APRIL
MEAN 25.8 66.4 61.4 47.9 47.9 76.8 45.2
%NORMAL 39.7 45.5 53.9 45.9 56.3 51.3 42.5
MIN 168.9 103.4 126.3 178.5 68.0 208.6 215.0
MAX 192.2 117.6 179.5 225.2 74.1 227.3 242.1
MAY
MEAN 182.4 109.7 156.6 207.5 71.3 217.9 227.9
%NORMAL 90.1 69.9 86.6 89.1 70.0 89.2 86.2
MIN 197.5 166.6 213.9 146.7 120.2 179.7 200.9
MAX 207.0 185.6 277.0 203.2 128.5 190.8 223.1
JUNE
MEAN 203.4 178.4 252.2 179.8 124.2 182.6 210.1
%NORMAL 77.2 83.1 92.3 68.4 94.0 73.8 61.2
MIN 299.1 205.6 213.3 330.1 123.1 344.2 680.8
MAX 395.9 232.8 305.2 846.4 136.6 601.2 890.9
way below normal JULY
MEAN 358.5 218.7 263.4 610.8 130.9 453.9 813.3
below normal %NORMAL 88.5 83.7 90.1 115.1 91.0 115.3 114.3
near normal
MIN 264.6 256.3 182.2 167.5 140.9 219.0 266.3
above normal
MAX 303.6 279.2 283.4 287.3 153.6 278.0 343.5
AUGUST
MEAN 282.9 267.5 231.0 230.6 147.0 250.8 303.9
%NORMAL 73.8 132.5 98.2 56.0 112.6 81.7 45.3
MIN 266.6 99.1 154.4 314.2 92.2 261.6 549.5
MAX 287.9 141.5 217.7 629.3 100.7 457.6 666.8
SEPTEMBER
MEAN 283.7 126.1 187.2 485.5 96.4 345.2 627.1
%NORMAL 75.9 45.7 75.3 112.0 58.4 93.8 127.7
Slide # 16
Most Dams and Lakes in April will likely experience way below to below normal rainfall conditions
3/22/2019
while generally below to near normal rainfall conditions will be likely during the rest of forecast period.
 FORECAST RANGES OF TEMPERATURE (EXTREME)
Updated : 19 Mar. 2019

Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19

TMAX Summary
Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range
Northern Luzon 30.5 39.5 31.8 40.7 31.3 38.5 31.3 38.5 31.6 36.4 31.2 37.0
Lowlands Luzon 30.4 39.1 30.6 40.4 31.5 37.6 31.5 37.6 30.6 37.1 31.3 36.8
Mountainous Luzon 27.2 28.9 26.2 28.5 26.2 28.0 26.1 27.8 24.5 26.4 25.5 27.2
Metro Manila 35.1 38.0 36.2 38.2 33.7 37.1 33.6 36.8 32.2 35.0 32.4 35.1
Lowlands Visayas 32.1 38.0 32.8 38.3 32.8 37.2 32.8 37.2 32.2 36.6 32.4 36.2
Lowlands Mindanao 33.3 38.9 32.9 38.8 32.9 37.2 32.5 37.1 32.5 38.2 32.5 36.5
Mountainous Mindanao 33.9 36.0 33.2 35.9 32.0 33.3 32.0 33.1 32.0 33.6 32.0 33.4

Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19

TMIN Summary
Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range
Northern Luzon 15.3 23.4 18.2 23.9 17.2 24.0 16.6 24.5 18.7 25.4 17.8 23.9
Lowlands Luzon 19.4 26.0 21.5 26.3 20.8 26.7 20.6 25.7 20.4 25.4 20.7 25.3
Mountainous Luzon 12.1 14.8 15.2 16.3 15.0 16.1 15.0 15.7 15.1 15.6 14.6 16.3
Metro Manila 21.2 25.9 23.0 26.9 23.1 25.4 22.5 25.3 22.7 24.8 22.2 25.1
Lowlands Visayas 19.5 25.5 21.8 25.3 21.1 25.3 21.4 25.6 20.3 25.4 19.7 25.3
Lowlands Mindanao 18.4 24.5 19.0 24.5 18.4 24.6 18.4 24.4 17.8 24.4 18.5 24.7
Mountainous Mindanao 13.9 16.3 16.8 18.0 16.1 18.2 16.0 17.3 15.3 18.0 16.1 18.0

3/22/2019 25
Forecast Tropical Cyclone Frequency
MONTH NUMBER OF TC

APRIL 2019 0 OR 1

MAY 2019 1 OR 2

JUNE 2019 1 OR 2

JULY 2019 2 OR 3

AUGUST 2019 2 OR 3

SEPTEMBER 2019 2 TO 4

3/22/2019 26
SUMMARY:
• Weak El Niño is present in the Tropical Pacific;
• PAGASA ENSO Alert System is now El Niño Advisory No. 2.
• Varying impacts are now present (i.e., warmer than average surface temperatures,
prolonged dry season ;
• Impacts becoming severe in March and April 2019;
• Rainfall forecast for the whole country:
• APRIL 2019: Generally way below normal rainfall to below normal rainfall
conditions in most parts of the country;
• MAY 2019: Generally below normal rainfall conditions in most parts southern
Luzon and Visayas while near normal in most parts of northern Luzon and
Mindanao;
• JUNE 2019: Below normal rainfall conditions expected in most parts of Luzon
(except the eastern sections) while most parts of Visayas and Mindanao are
expected to have near normal rainfall conditions;

3/22/2019 27
SUMMARY:
• JULY 2019: Most parts of the Luzon will likely receive near normal rainfall with
some patches of above normal rainfall conditions; while near normal rainfall
condition with patches of below normal in Visayas and Mindanao is expected;
• AUGUST 2019: Generally below normal rainfall conditions in most parts of
Luzon while near normal to above normal in most parts of Visayas and
Mindanao are expected.
• SEPTEMBER 2019: Generally below normal rainfall conditions in most parts
of Luzon while near normal to above normal in most parts of Visayas and
Mindanao are expected.

• Generally near average to slightly warmer than average temperature is

forecasted during the period (esp. night time temperatures);
• 8-11 TCs may develop/enter PAR during the forecast period; Based from
historical perspectives, TC frequency for 2019 will be below average;

3/22/2019 28
 Actions taken for the current El Niño
Actions Taken Date Issued
• Issued El Niño Watch (more than 50% probability of El Niño in July 2018 - Jan. 2019
the coming months)
• Issued Monthly Climate Assessment and Outlook August 2018- February 2019
(under El Niño Watch)
• Issued Monthly Dry Spell/Drought Assessment
• Released Press Statement - Weak El Niño 20 February 2019
• issued El Niño Advisory No. 1
• Issued Dry Spell/Drought Assessment and Outlook
• Issued Dry Spell/Drought Assessment and Outlook 01 March 2019
• Issued El Niño Advisory No. 2 08 March 2019
• Issued PAGASA Briefer on El Niño 14 March 2019

3/22/2019 Slide # 29
 Actions taken for the current El Niño
• Conduct of Regular Climate Outlook Forum monthly;
• Provincial Climate Outlook Forum (conducted)
• Tarlac, Quirino, Isabela, Pangasinan
• National Forum on El Nino;
• Regular attendance to meetings and special briefings to various government
agencies:
• Technical Management Group Meeting thru NDRRMC
• Department of Agriculture- various Philippine Council for Agriculture and
Fisheries (PCAF) Committees;
• National Water Resources Board (NWRB)- Technical Working Group (TWG) for
Angat Dam Operation
• Water Crisis Meeting – Committee on Metro Manila Development (Congress)
• Meeting with Committee on Public Service (Senate)
• Monthly assessment of dry spell situation and outlook at possible affected areas;
• Dissemination of forecasts and advisories thru Press Briefings/quad-media
3/22/2019 Slide # 30
 Actions to be taken:
• Continuous conduct of monthly Climate Outlook Forum every 3rd
Wednesday of the month;
• Provincial Climate Outlook Forum (to be conducted)
• Zamboanga del Sur, Siquijor, Bohol, Albay, Occ. Mindoro, Roxas, Cebu, N. Cotobato, Sarangani, S. Kudarat,
Zambales, Nueva Ecija (co-organized with LGUs, DA and Rice Watch Action Network (NGO)

• Regular attendance to meetings and special briefings to various

government agencies;
• Regular update of rainfall forecast;
• Continuous update of monthly assessment of dry spell/drought
situation and outlook at possible affected areas;
• Continuous dissemination of forecasts and advisories thru Press
Briefings/quad-media
3/22/2019 Slide # 31
 PAGASA will continue to closely monitor this El Nino and
updates/advisories shall be issued as appropriate.
Weekly ENSO monitoring is available at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/index.php/climate/climate-prediction/el-nino-southern-oscillation-enso-status

112th COF
22 APRIL 2019
3/22/2019 32
 Website:
www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
www.bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph

Facebook:
T H A N K
www.facebook.com/
pagasa.dost.gov.ph

Twitter:
@dost_pagasa

Y U!
Typhoon Flood
+632-9271541 +632-9266970
+632-9271335
Climate
+632-9204052
IEC
YOU!
+632-4351675 +632-4342696
+632-4340955 +632-9279308

3/22/2019 33
Occupational hazards such as risk of heatstroke will rise, especially
among farmers and construction workers. Labor could shift to dawn and
dusk, times when more disease-carrying insects are out.

PREVENTION

Don’t wear thick clothes

Limit outdoor time

Use sunscreen

Cool shower
 Historical El Niño and La Niña Episodes Based on the ONI
computed using ERSST.v5
Recent Pacific warm (red) and cold (blue) periods based on a threshold of +/- 0.5 ºC for the Oceanic Nino Index
(ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region (5N-5S, 120-170W)]. For historical
purposes, periods of below and above normal SSTs are colored in blue and red when the threshold is met for a minimum
of 5 consecutive over-lapping seasons.
The ONI is one measure of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and other indices can confirm whether features
consistent with a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon accompanied these periods. The complete table going back to
DJF 1950 can be found here.

3/22/2019 39