What next after India-US sweet Courting?? A Honeymoon in store?

The Basic Exchange and Co-operation Agreement (BECA) 2-2 is a sure manifestation of all
the past courting efforts between the US-India duo and the new economic order stirred up by
COVID-19. This having resulted in a covetous approach for polarising forces to instrument
actions that serves their own national interests first and to the fullest which was not
unexpected. It is worth taking a look at the future dynamics from Ms. Harris’s and Biden’s
lens between both the powers if the emerging relationship can induce a variable status quo as
Russia and China both would assert their strategic interests. The recent BECA geo-spatial
cooperation agreement is a sure sign of deepened Quad’s combined interests and framework
of US-India Parliamentary Exchange having been established.
Using New age defence to sway the status-quo:
While it looked like the trade tensions between India and the US may escalate surely but slowing
early this year, Covid and 2020 has lured in changes that was earlier considered impossible in a short
timeline. Previous imposition of Section 232 tariffs on Indian steel and aluminium in 2020 ensured
more harm’s way than India had anticipated. India making no meek gestures to the super power’s
googly hit back aptly with tariffs (PARPIANI, 2020). Except there were no winners, no more money
to make, deals to sign or handshakes to exchange- or so it seemed before Trump drop shipped
to India early this year (The Print, 2020).

A recent unresolved encounter which perfectly explains the dynamic exchange between the 2
countries are the defence and the pharma covenants. Modi’s government could look into alternative
options to resolve this festering pharma price capping problem which seems like it needed resolving
yesterday. If rendering helpless to the USTR’s demands is not an option and the rationalised approach
proposed did not get the juices to flow both parties need to hire private consultants (Appendix 1). Did
USTR not realize it was asking India to make amends in areas it would hit its economy hard than it
has already impacted (Sivaraman, 2020).

How did the USTR not realize signing a lofty trade deal would be farfetched an idea if it asked the
world’s largest democracy to sign something that could be a clincher to its economy if not a
catastrophe (Dean. E, 2019). Isn’t this what you learn in the trade school- to not be fixated on a
damming clause which could turn off the other partner and deter business? Trade craft 101. Have the
two powers considered private consulting for trade? No way! Well, way! Privatising a few functions
of trade like early scoping, pitching products & services along with early negations and drawing up
draft contracts can better be consigned to a separate committee with corporate ties. This would make
trade deals less dependent on political motivations alone and ensure prudent business.

US’s need to control every step of the global business venture contradicts fair multilateral business
world ideology- towards a developing country like India has caused requited delays. Not to mention
savouring big deals for an undefined ‘later’ as claimed by Mr.Trump doesn’t sound anything but
convenient. Sensitivity in measured quantities if exercised to achieve rational resolutions both party
appear to benefit.

The US having put the defence deal on a pause mode is a classic example of negotiations gone cold
due to multiple essential and non-essential, irrelevant factors which mean no unfettered ‘business’. To
avoid such future pointless pauses from presidents whose whims and fancies are intangible and
unrequited, business would be smooth and a mutually amiable committee if formed to carry out
function without political bias. Such semi-autonomous can carry out activities like a private agency
and receive final approvals from their respective federal governments. In post Covid world progress
and peace-making shall be tested like never before say Mr. S. Jaishankar (Nayar.M, 2020). Thereby
reiterating a need for a platform which can work on issues to reach moderation sooner rather than
later.
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On the contrary the US perceived India to be slow, and indecisive in terms of overall decision making
thus leaving US officials grouchy. The Indian representatives who weren’t vested with powers to take
collective decisions on behalf of the relevant ministries led to frustration for the US before Trumps’s
arrival in early 2020 (Sirohi, 2020). The US’s compulsive need to control 6.5 Billion dollar Indian
funds for purchase of US oil and gas despite declaring India as a developed country to avoid them
from benefiting under the Generalized System of Preference (GSP) cannot be mistaken for intensions
of friendly exchanges (The Economic Times, 2020). The US approaching WTO for India’s retaliatory
tariffs too was no plush cushy mattress experience for both to bounce with joy.

The mini-trade deal bouncer:

The recent US India Strategic and Partnership Forum (USISPF) seems to be a sign of long concerted
efforts from both parties to sign a mini bilateral trade deal before the presidential elections in
November 2020. It’s probably best for the Indian authorities to not bank on the Trump administration
at this point of time and expect all the previous differences to be discounted that have previously
deterred trade (Aulakh, 2020).
With the US Fed reserves being in soft-spot like never before, it probably isn’t wise for the US to not
welcome money through bilateral trade. Besides it would serve them to curb that surmountable trade
deficit with India and not to mention all things Chinese except its cuisine.
The change of course to streamline ‘ease of doing business’ for US investors and global
manufacturers in India should be at the very top of the very enterprising Modi Ji’s agenda. The
entrepreneurial urgency to stretch global supply chains through the Indian borders is felt deeply and
sharply.
The USIPF while professed a win-win scenario depends on India’s ability to streamline problem areas
like policy predictability, lack of infrastructure and ease of doing business procedures (Aulakh, 2020).
These factors play a prominent role in appealing to Anti-China investors, manufacturing giants and
curb mishaps for the American investors too – all of whom seem to perceive India as the next best
alternative to China.
Modi and Chopper Deals:

Modi unlike Mr. Trump has something about him that screams sturdiness. USISP is his
administration’s baby given shape and form since Covid and Chinese crafty intrusions across the
border. While there are the strategic energy ties, pharma trade conundrums and global supply chain
markup to be drwn through and over India – a deal which caught everyone’s eyes is the defence
transaction.
The Chinese barging in on the Indians was the perfect excuse for the U.S.-India Major Defense
Partnership (MDP) to take off. Improvising security partnerships and sharing innovations to co-
develop global defence supply chains under Defence Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI) were
agreements mapped prior the Covid phase. Since then India and the US see new opportunities for
progress since to strengthen ties than just arrange for 24 of those ‘Romeo’ and 6 Apache choppers.
(The Indian Express, 2020)While the sweet 3 Billion USD deal procured by the Indian army was extra
cash for the US, let’s not forget the baseline interest to raise more capital to keep their respective
administrations well-oiled and indulge in some more ‘business politics’ (a catch phrase for the times
we live in) is always the agenda!
While India aspires to procure Romeos, a multi-use chopper capable of logistics chores also designed
for war missions with built in tracking and destroying submarines and Boeing’s attack Apache
helicopters, China has been working on advantages of its own (Roblin, 2020). As the Modi’s team got
busy with Trump’s administration to overhaul the US perception of India’s ‘unfair’ practices and
undo the GSP cancellation, it failed to convince the US fully that it could open markets fairly
(Congressional Research Service, 2020). Though India opening up its markets is not full-fledged
reality, being closed off is a thing of the past too.
Remodelling their stances:

The Chinese seem to have made a more headway since both India and the US did not reach consensus
and sign the deal (The Indian Express, 2020). Not that it matters now. Since the pandemic the Chinese
seem to be clamouring to put off one fire after another. The dragon is no longer a cheery ride that
nations wish to gallop on.
The new shiny USIPF too emphasises it is in the best interest of all 4 parties US, India, Japan and
Australia’s (The Quad) vested interests to counter the Chinese intimidating regime translating
intensions to a baseline driving force (Aulakh, 2020).
India’s basic ideology to resolve conflicts through talks and favourable position of moderation makes
it a perfect candidate for it a permanent seat at the Security Council (Mandira Nayar, 2020). Chinese
blocking India’s entry into UNSC is no longer a valid concern, for an overwhelming majority of
countries have supported Indian endeavours. The US too have recognized that backing India is in its
own best interests, resulting in increased strategic defence cooperation and trade tension otherwise
(PARPIANI, 2020).
India’s fair stance globally and moderated responses towards other minority, racing for a spot in
UNSC although appealing to both Congress and the Trump administration is yet to receive
unflinching support. Chinese fashioning tensions along Pangong Tso border and declaring it open for
international tourists is part of barrage of dirty tricks it is known to unravel (Kaushik, 2020).

Respecting human lives with enhanced AI:

Although States primary responsibility being protecting civilians, collateral damage cannot be
discounted although unintentional larger economies with sizable defence budget can benefit on the
operation basis using AI. Contextual use of AI in their supply chains boots productivity and reduce
chances of accidents.
While India’s position had been clear that it wished to reduce interdependence on the economically
industrialized economies ant put interests of the domestic requirements first, its military achievements
are not precedent to advance technologically(Dhar, 2020). Making its it less dependent but not
completely self-sufficient in terms of defence manufacturing or deep innovative exploration to give
military ‘forward edge (United States Department of Defense, 2018). A weakness Chinese will
sufficiently exploit.
Shifting international security via changing AI strategy:
Although advancements in AI have transformed International Security landscape and nation have
begun sharing analysed data, visuals and image recognition contributing to inter-dependent geo-
politics on other international players and allies. Sooner India and the US partner and align with US’s
AI strategy via the Joint Artificial Intelligence Centre (JAIC) and establish mutually beneficial world-
class AI team to share trusted SME better are their chances to counter rise of their competitors- China
and Russia.

While peace along India’s boarders seems to be a fleeting idea after 5 th round of non-conclusive talk
between India and China, both the US and India’s stances need to be rapidly structured. Strengthening
ties with allies under ‘National Missions Initiatives’ (NMI) based on lessons learnt from past and
deploying joint forces for select group of high priority challenges posed either by the Chinese or the
middle-east would reform the way world looks at global trade. As we near the quarter-mile mark into
the 21st century and rise of the strategic long-term competitor like China and Russia, India’s unhurried
and measured steps of ‘no focus’ towards enhancing the defensive AI decision mechanisms to manage
the intelligent forces is to impede the world without restoring order.

India’s pressing requisite to sit at the High-table (UNSC):

It is worth mentioning Mr. Turmp’s dilly-dally to pick the most obvious ally (India) and start the
initial sequence of cross-functional strategy to deter China from maintaining its strategic position in
the pacific region has been dismaying to India. Nevertheless India’s ambition to sit at the high table is
almost insatiable without proactive support from US counterparts. The Indian government expressed
these intensions through the practical measures PM Modi took by regrouping the G4 aspirants during
UN’s 75th anniversary. Broad consensus to reform UNSC memberships is not just requirement to
acquire permanent seat to India for it stands to benefit from the change in its image ‘Brand India’
combined with streamlined defence supply chain wooing to bring in business.

Although this urge to find a level playing field on paper and spirit, drives India and the US relations,
India has to seriously invest time and effort to develop DEFENSE INNOVATION UNIT in coalition
with the US as a long term strategy. Lack of adopting commercial technology like AI along with wide
range of areas could prove costly to India in the long run if an exemplary measure like what the US
did in early 2016; awarding 100 plus prototype contracts within 90 days’ timeline might prove to be a
saving grace for India.
US considering to extend support and co-operation to India (and the Quad) is imperative as India
might just be the single non-aligned force capable of swinging the balance between US- China world
domination. Australia joining the India, Japan and the US for the high-end Malabar Naval Exercise
was just in time for kicks.