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Abbreviation
USTR: United States Trade Repetitive

Chapters
Chapter 1: Cutting edge tech influencing trade

Chapter 2: US India fresh currents (Appendix1)

Chapter 3: Thoughts on tensions: Resolving weighty Challenges Game plan:

3.1 Ongoing issues Discuss critically thoughts on trade,

Chpter 4: Brexit and changing games (UK, Inida, US) Funny gestures

Chp: 4.1: Remodelling their stance Examine from technology point of view

Chapter xx: China- We all have to deal with them!

Chapter xx.1: Impact of COVID-19 on International Trade

Chapter Y: Defence Export Controls

Chapter Z: Future: & positioning shrewdly

Chapter 1: Tech and trade

1.1 Razor Edge Tech

1.2. AI’s sway on modern defence:

With the rise of the artificial intelligence in the recent times the departments of defence have
developed advanced multi-decade strategy to better manage the intelligent forces that enhance the
decision processes. The conventional forces are ‘swarms’ of superior cognitive robots like precision
strike weapons that restrict the opponent’s (US military capable of infiltrating) access in contested
areas.

Advancements in AI has transformed International Security landscape, offer advantage like analysed
data, visuals and image recognition and is no longer used to produce just killer robots.

1.3 Impact on Export Controls & Outcome:

Razor Edge Trade Tensions & Tariff:

With growing trade between India and the US, tension haven’t deteriorated with US making earnest
attempts to stir things up. The imposition of the Section 232 tariffs on Indian steel and aluminium in
2020 ensured more harm’s way than anticipated. India making no meek gestures to the super power’s
googly hits back with tariffs(PARPIANI, 2020). Except there were no winners, no more money to
make, deals to sign or handshakes to exchange- Except for those gazillion handshakes when Mr.
Trump drop shipped to India(The Print, 2020).

A recent unresolved encounter which perfectly explains the dynamic exchange between the 2
countries are the defence and the pharma covenants. Modi’s government could look into alternative
options to resolve this festering pharma price capping problem which seems like it needed resolving
yesterday. If rendering helpless to the USTR’s demands is not an option and the rationalised approach
proposed did not get the juices to flow both parties need to hire private consultants (Appendix 1). Did
USTR not realize it was asking India to make amends in areas it would hit its economy hard than it
has already impacted (Sivaraman,2020).

How Did the USTR not realize signing a lofty trade deal would be farfetched an idea if it asked the
world’s largest democracy to sign o something that could be a clincher to its economy if not a
catastrophe(Dean.E, 2019). Isn’t this what you learn in the trade school- to not be fixated on a
damming clause that could turn off the other partner and deter business? Trade craft 101. Private
consulting for trade? No way! Well, way! Privatising a few functions of trade like early scoping,
pitching products & services along with early negations and drawing up draft contracts is can be
consigned to a separate committee with corporate ties. This would make trade deals less dependent on
political motivations alone and ensure prudent business.

Sporadic actions to control every step by the US contradicts fair multilateral business world ideology-
towards a developing country like India has caused requited delays. Not to mention savouring big
deals for an undefined ‘later’ as claimed by Mr.Trump doesn’t sound anything but convenient.
Sensitivity in measured quantities if exercised to achieve rational resolutions both party appear to
benefit.

The US having put the defence deal on a pause mode is a classic example of negotiations gone cold
due to multiple essential and non-essential, irrelevant factors which mean no unfettered ‘business’. To
avoid such future pointless pauses from presidents whose whims and fancies are intangible and
unrequited, business would be smooth and a mutually amiable committee if formed to carry out
function without political bias. Such semi-autonomous can carry out activities like a private agency
and receive final approvals from their respective federal governments. In post Covid world progress
and peace-making shall be tested like never before say Mr. S. Jaishankar (Nayar.M, 2020). Thereby
reiterating a need for a platform which can work on issues to reach moderation sooner rather than
later.
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On the contrary the US perceived India to be slow, and indecisive in terms of overall decision making
thus leaving US officials grouchy. The Indian representatives who weren’t vested with powers to take
collective decisions on behalf of the relevant ministries led to frustration for the US before Trumps’s
arrival in early 2020 (Sirohi, 2020). The US’s compulsive need to control 6.5 Billion dollar Indian
funds for purchase of US oil and gas despite declaring India as a developed country to avoid them
from benefiting under the Generalized System of Preference (GSP) cannot be mistaken for intensions
of friendly exchanges (The Economic Times, 2020). The US approaching WTO for India’s retaliatory
tariffs too was no plush cushy mattress experience for both to bounce with joy.
The mini-trade deal bouncer:

The recent US India Strategic and Partnership Forum (USISPF) seems to be a sign of long concerted
efforts from both parties to sign a mini bilateral trade deal before the presidential elections in
November 2020. It’s probably best for the Indian authorities to not bank on the Trump administration
at this point of time and expect all the previous differences to be discounted that have previously
deterred trade (Aulakh, 2020).
With the US Fed reserves being in soft-spot like never before, it probably isn’t wise for the US to not
welcome money through bilateral trade. Besides it would serve them to curb that surmountable trade
deficit with India and not to mention all things Chinese except its cuisine.
The change of course to streamline ‘ease of doing business’ for US investors and global
manufacturers in India should be at the very top of the very enterprising Modi Ji’s agenda. The
entrepreneurial urgency to stretch global supply chains through the Indian borders is felt deeply and
sharply.
The USIPF while professed a win-win scenario depends on India’s ability to streamline problem areas
like policy predictability, lack of infrastructure and ease of doing business procedures (Aulakh, 2020).
These factors play a prominent role in appealing to Anti-China investors, manufacturing giants and
curb mishaps for the American investors too – all of whom seem to perceive India as the next best
alternative to China.
Modi and Chopper Deals:

Modi unlike Mr. Trump has something about him that screams sturdiness. USISP is his
administration’s baby given shape and form since Covid and Chinese crafty intrusions across the
border. While there are the strategic energy ties, pharma trade conundrums and global supply chain
markup to be drwn through and over India – a deal which caught everyone’s eyes is the defence
transaction.
The Chinese barging in on the Indians was the perfect excuse for the U.S.-India Major Defense
Partnership (MDP) to take off. Improvising security partnerships and sharing innovations to co-
develop global defence supply chains under Defence Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI) were
agreements mapped prior the Covid phase. Since then India and the US see new opportunities for
progress since to strengthen ties than just arrange for 24 of those ‘Romeo’ and 6 Apache choppers.
(The Indian Express, 2020)While the sweet 3 Billion USD deal procured by the Indian army was extra
cash for the US, let’s not forget the baseline interest to raise more capital to keep their respective
administrations well-oiled and indulge in some more ‘business politics’ (a catch phrase for the times
we live in) is always the agenda!
While India aspires to procure Romeos, a multi-use chopper capable of logistics chores also designed
for war missions with built in tracking and destroying submarines and Boeing’s attack Apache
helicopters, China has been working on advantages of its own (Roblin, 2020). As the Modi’s team got
busy with Trump’s administration to overhaul the US perception of India’s ‘unfair’ practices and
undo the GSP cancellation, it failed to convince the US fully that it could open markets fairly
(Congressional Research Service, 2020). Though India opening up its markets is not full-fledged
reality, being closed off is a thing of the past too.
Remodelling their stances:

The Chinese seem to have made a more headway since both India and the US did not reach consensus
and sign the deal (The Indian Express, 2020). Not that it matters now. Since the pandemic the Chinese
seem to be clamouring to put off one fire after another. The dragon is no longer a cheery ride that
nations wish to gallop on.
The new shiny USIPF too emphasises it is in the best interest of all 4 parties US, India, Japan and
Australia’s (The Quad) vested interests to counter the Chinese intimidating regime translating
intensions to a baseline driving force (Aulakh, 2020).
India’s basic ideology to resolve conflicts through talks and favourable position of moderation makes
it a perfect candidate for it a permanent seat at the Security Council (Mandira Nayar, 2020). Chinese
blocking India’s entry into UNSC is no longer a valid concern, for an overwhelming majority of
countries have supported Indian endeavours. The US too have recognized that backing India is in its
own best interests, resulting in increased strategic defence cooperation and trade tension otherwise
(PARPIANI, 2020).
India’s fair stance globally and moderated responses towards other minority, racing for a spot in
UNSC although appealing to both Congress and the Trump administration is yet to receive
unflinching support. Chinese fashioning tensions along Pangong Tso border and declaring it open for
international tourists is part of barrage of dirty tricks it is known to unravel (Kaushik, 2020).

Respecting human lives with enhanced AI:

Although States primary responsibility being protecting civilians, collateral damage cannot be
discounted although unintentional larger economies with sizable defence budget can benefit on the
operation basis using AI. Contextual use of AI in their supply chains boots productivity and reduce
chances of accidents.
While India’s position had been clear that it wished to reduce interdependence on the economically
industrialized economies ant put interests of the domestic requirements first, its military achievements
are not precedented to advance technologically(Dhar, 2020). Making its it less dependent but not
completely self-sufficient in terms of defence manufacturing or deep innovative exploration to give
military ‘forward edge(United States Department of Defense, 2018). A weakness Chinese will
sufficiently exploit.
Shifting international security via changing AI strategy:
Although advancements in AI have transformed International Security landscape and nation have
begun sharing analysed data, visuals and image recognition contributing to inter-dependent geo-
politics on other international players and allies. Sooner India and the US partner and align with US’s
AI strategy via the Joint Artificial Intelligence Centre (JAIC) and establish mutually beneficial world-
class AI team to share trusted SME better are their chances to counter rise of their competitors- China
and Russia.

While peace along India’s boarders seems to be a fleeting idea after 5 th round of non-conclusive talk
between India and China, both the US and India’s stances need to be rapidly structured. Strengthening
ties with allies under ‘National Missions Initiatives’ (NMI) based on lessons learnt from past and
deploying joint forces for select group of high priority challenges posed either by the Chinese or the
middle-east would reform the way world looks at global trade. As we near the quarter-mile mark into
the 21st century and rise of the strategic long-term competitor like China and Russia, India’s unhurried
and measured steps of ‘no focus’ towards enhancing the defensive AI decision mechanisms to manage
the intelligent forces is to impede the world without restoring order.

India’s pressing need to sit at the High-table (UNSC):

It is worth mentioning Mr. Turmp’s dilly-dally to pick the most obvious ally (India) and start the
initial sequence of cross-functional strategy to deter China from maintaining its strategic position in
the pacific region has been dismaying to India. Nevertheless India’s ambition to sit at the high table is
almost insatiable without proactive support from US counterparts. The Indian government expressed
these intensions through the practical measures PM Modi took by regrouping the G4 aspirants during
UN’s 75th anniversary. Broad consensus to reform UNSC memberships is not just requirement to
acquire permanent seat to India for it stands to benefit from the change in its image ‘Brand India’
combined with streamlined defence supply chain wooing to bring in business.

Although this urge to find a level playing field on paper and spirit, drives India and the US relations,
India has to seriously invest time and effort to develop DEFENSE INNOVATION UNIT in coalition
with the US as a long term strategy. Lack of adopting commercial technology like AI along with wide
range of areas could prove costly to India in the long run if an exemplary measure like what the US
did in early 2016; awarding 100 plus prototype contracts within 90 days’ timeline might prove to be a
saving grace for India.
US considering to extend support and co-operation to India (and the Quad) is imperative as India
might just be the single non-aligned force capable of swinging the balance between US- China world
domination. Australia joining the India, Japan and the US for the high-end Malabar Naval Exercise
was just in time for kicks.

The End Game?