OR2_TugasGT1_21S18052

For the
upcoming
planting
season, Farmer
McCoy can
plant corn
(a1), wheat
(a2), or
soybeans (a3)
or use the land
for grazing
(a4). The
payoffs
associated
with the
different
actions are
influenced by
the amount of
rain: heavy
rainfall (s1),
moderate
rainfall (s2),
light rainfall
(s3), or
drought (s4).
The payoff
matrix (in
thousands of
dollars) is
estimated asX S1 S2 S3 S4
A1 -20 60 30 -5
A2 40 50 35 0
A3 -50 100 45 -10
A4 12 15 15 10

Develop a course of action for Farmer McCoy based on each of the four decisions under uncertainty
criteria.
1
Expected Payoff: × [ P 1+ P 2+ …+ Pn ]
n
Laplace
1
Given P { S 1 }= , j 1 to 4, the expected values for the different actions are computed as
4
1
E { A 1 }= × [ (−20 )+ 60+30+ (−5 ) ] =$ 16.250
4
 1
E { A 2 }= × [ 40+50+35+0 ] =$ 31.250
4
1
E { A 3 }= × [ (−50 ) +100+45+ (−10 ) ]=$ 21.250
4
1
E { A 4 }= × [ 12+15+15+10 ] =$ 1 3.00 0
4
Criterion of Optimism

MAXIMAXX MAXIMA
S1 S2 S3 S4 X
A1 -20 60 30 -5 60
A2 40 50 35 0 50
A3 -50 100 45 -10 100
A4 12 15 15 10 15

The MAXIMAX – Pay off is 100 in A3 (soybeans)

MINIM
INX MINIMI
S1 S2 S3 S4 N
A1 -20 60 30 -5 -20
A2 40 50 35 0 0
A3 -50 100 45 -10 -50
A4 12 15 15 10 10

The MINIMIN – Cost Matrix is -50 (A3 = Soybeans)

Criterion of Pessimism
MAXIMI
MAXIMINX
S1 S2 S3 S4 N
A1 -20 60 30 -5 -20
A2 40 50 35 0 0
A3 -50 100 45 -10 -50
A4 12 15 15 10 10

The MAXIMIN is 10 in A4 (A4 = for grazing)

MINIMAX
S1 S2 S3 S4 MINIMAX
A1 -20 60 30 -5 60
A2 40 50 35 0 50
A3 -50 100 45 -10 100
 A4 12 15 15 10 15
The MINIMAX is 10 in A4 (A4 = for grazing)

Savage
MAXIMIN – the minimization problem
The regret matrix is determined by subtracting 40, 100, 45, 10
RT = Max Payoff – payoff
S1 S2 S3 S4 MAXIMIN
A1 60 40 15 15 15
A2 0 50 10 10 0
A3 90 0 0 20 0
A4 28 85 30 0 0
The MAXIMIN is 10 in A1 (A1 = for corn)

MINIMAX – the maximization problem

The regret matrix is determined by subtracting -50, 15, 15, -10
RT = Cost – Mini cost
S1 S2 S3 S4 MINIMAX
A1 30 45 15 5 45
A2 90 35 20 10 90
A3 0 85 30 0 85
A4 62 0 0 20 62
The MINIMAX is 10 in A1 (A1 = for corn)

Hurwicz Criterion / Criterion of Realism

Weighted Arg. Criterion
Assume that α = 0,5
Minimization the problem – payoff
S1 S2 S3 S4 MIN MAX W0
A1 -20 60 30 -5 -20 60 20
A2 40 50 35 0 0 50 25
A3 -50 100 45 -10 -50 100 25
A4 12 15 15 10 10 15 12,5
The Minimization is by A4 for the grazing = 12,5
w 0=α × Min+ ( 1−α ) × Max
S 1=( 0,5 ×(−20) ) + ( 1−0,5 ) × 60=20
S 2=( 0,5 × 0 ) + ( 1−0,5 ) ×50=25
S 3=( 0,5×(−50) ) + ( 1−0,5 ) × 100=25
S 4=( 0,5 ×10 )+ ( 1−0,5 ) ×15=12,5

Maximization the problem – cost matrix

S1 S2 S3 S4 MAX MIN W0
A1 -20 60 30 -5 60 -20 20
A2 40 50 35 0 50 0 25
A3 -50 100 45 -10 100 -50 25
A4 12 15 15 10 15 10 12,5
The Maximization is by A4 for the grazing = 25 by A2 = wheat or by A3 with the second optimum
after wheat which is A3 by Soybeans.
w 0=α × M ax+ ( 1−α ) × M ∈¿
S 1=( 0,5 ×60 )+ ( 1−0,5 ) ×(−20)=20
S 2=( 0,5 ×5 0 )+ (1−0,5 ) ×0=25
S 3=( 0,5× 100 ) + ( 1−0,5 ) ×(−50)=25
S 4=( 0,5 ×1 5 ) + ( 1−0,5 ) × 10=12,5