DATA ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

4.1. Trend of Total Fertility Rate

Total Fertility Rate

8.000

7.000

6.000

5.000

4.000

3.000

2.000

1.000

0.000
60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 14
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20

The fertility rate trend graph indicates that the fertility rate decreased for a major part of the
period under study. So it can be said to decrease over time.The mean Total Fertility Rate
between 1960 and 2016 is 6.313 with a standard deviation of 0.345.

4.2 Derivation of three state transition probability matrix

The close observation of Total Fertility rate over the study period shows that it involves
one of the three different states of transition at the end of each year. The possible
movements of the fertility rate of such states are either increase, decrease or same. For
the purpose of development of transition probability matrix these three different
movements are considered as three different states in the Markov chain. The transition
probability provides the information regarding the transition behaviour of Markov chain.
The elements of transition probability matrix indicate the probability of transitions from a
particular state to another state. In other word, the transition probability refers to the
probability of occurrence of a typical state from one of the existing states. This transition
probability helps to make an idea about the likelihood of occurrence of future state and
accordingly one can make the decisions.
 Decrease in rate (D) Increase in rate (I)

Decrease in rate (D) 40 1

Increase in rate (D) 1 14

The transition probability matrix of using the above information can be constructed as;

PTFR = 0.9756 0.0667

[
0.0244 0.9333 ]

The transition diagraph for the explicit presentation of transition probability of TFR shown
below.

Figure 1: Transition diagraph of Total Fertility Rate