Crypto

Market Roundup

BTC rallied to a new all-time trading high last week due to optimism towards Coinbase’s entrance on the Nasdaq, as
the top cryptocurrency tested close to the $65,000 benchmark level.

Coinbase’s reference price was set at $250.00 on the Nasdaq, however, the official opening price was $381.00. The
company stock price also briefly exceeded a market valuation of $100 billion on its first day of trading.

Coinbase’s share price eventually pulled back towards the $300.00 support level, after hitting $429.00 on day one
trading. No clear bearish price catalyst was attributed to the pullback.

Andrew Fisher Twitter

Source: Twitter.com

Bitcoin’s euphoric rise proved to be short-lived on the cryptocurrency market, following news that the U.S. Treasury
was investigating financial institutions for illicit use of cryptocurrencies. BTC fell back under the $60,000 support
level, and subsequently collapsed towards the $51,300 level during another wild weekend of crypto trading action.

Bearish fundamental news surrounding Turkey banning cryptocurrencies also prompted a major price pullback in
BTC. The Turkish central bank took the steps just one day after keeping the nation's interest rate at a staggering
19%.

Crypto traders feared Bitcoin could come under pressure over the coming weeks, as Turkish citizens move into sell
mode. The ban of cryptocurrency transactions in Turkey comes into effect on April 30th.
 Documenting Bitcoin Twitter
Source: Twitter.com

On-chain data from crypto behavioral platform Santiment showed a number of large spikes in Token Age Consumed,
signalling that short-term volatility was on the rise last week.

Data from crypto behavioral platform Santiment also showed that BTC exchange inflows spiked as traders became
nervous about Turkey’s announcement to ban cryptocurrencies.

On-chain data from Cryptoquant also revealed that Bitcoin’s estimated leverage ratio across a selection of top
cryptocurrency exchanges reached a new 2021 high last week.
 BTC Estimate Exchange Leverage Ratio
Source: Cryptoquant.com

Yellow-flags also emerged last week as positive sentiment towards BTC exploded during the days leading upto the
Coinbase IPO, while Bitcoin’s funding rate also rose to its second highest level in eight weeks, amidst low spot volume.

On-chain data showed that open interest on the futures market hit a new record high last week. Glassnode also
revealed data showing that BTC open interest exceeded $27 billion for the first time ever.

The PI Cycle Top Indicator, which is closely followed by technical traders, also flashed its first major sell signal in two
years last week, which suggested that the cycle high could be in for Bitcoin.

Interestingly, the PI Cycle Top indicator called all the last three previous meaningful tops in BTC, and Bitcoin started to
pull back sharply just forty-eight hours after the signal was issued.

Positive Sentiment
Source: santiment.net

The crypto total market capitalization excluding BTC advanced to yet another new all-time record high last week, and
briefly exceeded the $1 trillion mark.

Bitcoin’s overall market dominance hit a fresh multi year low last week, as Ethereum hit a new ATH, and Ripple tested
towards the $2.00 benchmark levels.
Dogecoin also gained over 100 percent last week, as Elon Musk released another bullish Tweet, which helped the
DOGE/USD bulls ride another wave of optimism towards the ever popular altcoin.

During my upcoming webinar I will be looking at the Fibonacci retracement analysis, and charting Bitcoin Cash,
Cardano, Crypto.com, and DODO.

DOGE/USD Daily Chart

Source: Tradingview

The Week Ahead

Bitcoin (BTC) is set for a tense week this week after coming under some pretty severe pressure over the weekend, and
reversing a good portion of its monthly gains.

Given the events that are going on in the global economy it is unlikely that digital assets have peaked for 2021.
However, a more cautious mood will be in the air after the weekend’s price pullback.

Very little evidence exists on-chain right now that a meaningful top has formed. Aside from a major spike in new daily
active addresses after the Coinbase IPO, on-chain data points concurrent with market tops are not flashing the type of
red flags you would expect to see if a cycle high had just been achieved.

However, some yellow-flags did start to emerge on-chain last week that BTC was looking overstretched in the short-
term. These metrics alluded to a possible short-term correction rather than the end of the current bull market.

For what it's worth, some classic on-chain indicators that I closely monitor, such as NUPL and Miner Capitulation are not
signalling a meaningful price top at this stage, which is encouraging.

Social sentiment towards BTC is also starting to get back to neutral. This is also leading me to believe that last week's
pullback to $51,300 could just be a pitstop on the way to $70,000, and possibly higher.

The ongoing draining of Bitcoin’s market dominance by Ethereum and Ripple are two very valid reasons while BTC
could consolidate or more softening in the near-term.

The big risk in the crypto market is over upcoming crypto regulation from the U.S. and other countries, however, the
risk of this happening is purely speculative right now.

Looking on the economic docket, data events from the eurozone and China largely overshadow the United States this
week, as the European Central Bank and People’s Bank of China meet to decide on rates and monetary policy. The
crypto market will be on high-alert for central banks' thoughts on cryptos after Turkey recently banned cryptocurrency
payments.
 Economic Calendar
Source: Forexlive

Bitcoin (BTC) still looks like it could recover, despite last week's strong reversal from the $64,900 level and an
ongoing steep decline in its overall market dominance in percentage terms.

A large inverted head and shoulders pattern across various continues to project that Bitcoin is going to rally towards
the $70,000 level, and possibly even the $75,000 level.

The mentioned pattern is only activated while the price holds above the $60,000 level, hence why we have been
seeing numerous technical tests of this region lately, and such a steep drop when the $60,000 support level was
breached over the weekend.

On-chain data has shown large spikes in Token Age Consumed and BTC inflows over recent weeks. The size of these
spikes also indicates that Bitcoin could stage another big move this week.

Sentiment has played a big part in Bitcoin’s rise this month. High levels of pessimism have returned towards BTC as
the euphoria towards Coinbase’s IPO subsides, and obviously the weekends steep decline. This bodes well for BTC.

In terms of what bears need to do to change the technical landscape, I believe that sustained selling price under the
$55,800 level is needed for starters and weakness under the March 25th swing-low, around $50,000.

Overall, no big red flags right now to indicate that BTC is in trouble, despite its falling market dominance and recent
correction. I suspect that the trading action on either side of $55,800 and $60,000 will be key for forming a new price
trend this week.
 BTC/USD H4 Chart
Source: Tradingview

Ethereum (ETH) had an extremely impressive former trading week and could easily continue to explode higher this
week, with the $2,800 and $3,000 levels the main bullish targets now that the $2,400 level has been broken.

ETH/BTC is extremely interesting right now, and a strong upside breakout in this cross pair could absolutely turbo
charge the uptrend in ETH/USD. Sustained strength above the 0.4125 level in ETH/BTC should be closely watched as it
could start the mentioned move.

A coming upside breakout in ETH/BTC does make sense on many levels right now as Bitcoin’s market cap dominance is
receding and altcoin season is in full swing.

It must be said that ETH/USD looks to be trading inside a broadening expanding wedge pattern on the daily time
frame, however, it is still far from the top of the pattern, which is now located around $2,900.

These types of patterns are extremely bearish, and indicate that a strong and decisive pullback from the $2,900 level
could take place eventually. If ETH/BTC does start to breakout, ETH/USD could get to $2,900 much sooner than some
people are expecting.

To the downside, strong weekly support for ETH comes in at $2,145. It is also noteworthy that ETH/USD pair has solid
technical support around the $2,000 and $1,845 levels. Below $1,845 and ETH/USD will start to come under heavy
pressure.

ETH/USD Daily Chart

Source: Tradingview
Litecoin (LTC) exploded higher last week alongside a number of other top coins, and for all intents and purposes looks
to be on its way to a new all-time over the coming months ahead.

The LTC/USD pair’s all-time high comes in around $420.00, which is not that far away if we consider the strong, and
pretty significant weekly gains Litecoin posted last week.

Perhaps the most noteworthy point to make is that the LTC/USD pair will form a huge cup and handle pattern if it does
reach $420.00. This pattern is almost a carbon copy of the one that Cardano has recently formed.

These types of cup and handle patterns have been prevalent across a number of altcoins since 2020. Almost each and
every one of these patterns has caused a price explosion once they have been activated on the crypto market this
year.

With this in mind buying dips is probably advised right now. In terms of pick-up spots, the charts show that the $240.00
or $225.00 levels offer great support and could be potential reversal spots.

LTC/USD Daily Chart

Source: Tradingview

Best,
Nathan Batchelor
Lead Bitcoin Analyst at SIMETRI Research

Disclaimer
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