STATISTICS DO THREE THINGS –

DESCRIBE, COMPARE AND RELATE

By David Wetzel

Fear of statistics is often a barrier to learning and applying Six Sigma methods. One way
to minimize this fear is to remember that only three things can be done with statistics –
describe, compare and relate. Many people are skeptical when they first hear this
statement. “It couldn’t be that simple,” they think. However, beginning Six Sigma
practitioners may find that this classification system is a helpful way to focus on the goal
of the statistical application rather than immediately getting bogged down in statistical
equations, symbols and theories. This system not only allows for better cataloguing of
current knowledge but also provides a basis for absorbing new material – such as
advanced statistical methods – with a clearer understanding.

Why care about reducing the fear-induced barrier to learning statistics? The simple
answer is that without statistical thinking there is no data-based decision-making. Six
Sigma initiatives give teams permission to improve processes. Most of the decisions
made to improve processes are – hopefully – based on data. The language of these data-
based decisions is statistics.

Essentially, data-based decision-making is using statistically based decision limits to

make better decisions. It is specifically the fitting of distributions and the establishment
of probabilities and decision limits that enable better decision-making.

For example, when a person is presented with a weather map on the morning news with
temperature predictions and cold fronts, they decide whether to take an umbrella with
them. They are the decision-maker looking at a communication – the weather map,
which contains information, temperatures and fronts. That map is based on vast amounts
of data and weather prediction models. Every person has some internally determined
decision limit or threshold, above which, they decide to grab the umbrella.
Not only do people use statistics to make daily decisions, everyone thinks statistically.
People are pattern-based creatures. Everyone calculates probabilities all day long. “What
is the probability of snow?” “Should I go home this way or that?” We absorb statistics
and probabilities easily but the statistics behind the scenes are a bit tougher. To break
through the confusion, take a step back from the equations and symbol logic and
remember the three things that can be done with statistics.

1. Describe
Descriptive statistics are concerned with taking data and turning it into useful and
consumable information. Transforming data into information starts with summary
statistics (mean, median, range, and standard deviation). This is similar to the weather
person reporting average temperatures with record lows and highs. Understandably,
many folks do not like numerical summaries, tables and spreadsheets. The old saying that
“A picture is worth a thousand words” – or numbers in this case – is dead on. Several
graphical techniques are available to illustrate and improve communication, including
Boxplots, histograms, Paretos, run charts and many others, including a weather map, for
example. Another critical part of descriptive statistics is fitting data to distributions (i.e.,
Poisson, binomial, normal) which is critical for purposes of prediction and decision-
making. Think of that 50 percent chance of rain prediction that convinced at least some
in the office to carry an umbrella.

2. Compare
The ability to compare things is one of the most useful skills in the Six Sigma body of
knowledge. In project work, comparative experiments are used to validate whether a
project was successful or not. At least two checks are regularly made to validate
projects: First, did the team shift the mean of the main pain project metric? Second, did
the team decrease the variability of the main pain project metric? Other uses for
comparative experiments are to stratify data, validate relationships and check control
groups.
Even though many different types of comparative experiments exist, it is useful to
remember that comparative experiments answer only one question, “Did I make a
difference?” To answer this question, hypotheses are proposed, assumptions made,
samples drawn from one or more populations, test statistics calculated and decisions
made. Often a stepwise procedure is employed and it is the same for any comparative
experiment: one recipe to answer one question. The only place to mess this up is to pick
the wrong test. Therefore, a project team should find a good comparative experiment
decision tree to help decide which test to use.
In the weather example, a viewer could explore whether it is more likely to rain in March
or April, whether two different TV stations make different predictions, and so forth.

3. Relate
Relating things to one another – in other words, discovering and exploring
relationships – helps in understanding and ultimately in establishing predictive models.
Relational statistics break up into two broad categories: historical studies and designed
experiments. Historical data is analyzed with regression and is comprised of correlations
and regression. Correlations ask, “How do two things vary together? Is there a
correlation between humidity and rainfall?” Regression asks, “How well can you predict
one thing if you know other characteristics?” Designed experiments negate problems
with regression with good research methods but require greater planning and execution
skills. It may help to think of design of experiments (DOE) as active and regression as
passive. DOE explores cause-and-effect relationships between and amongst many
variables and also generates prediction models. For example, if a cloud is seeded with
compounds X, Y and Z, then how much will it rain? In summary, both DOE and
regression are focused on creating predictive models to make better data-based
decisions.

Conclusion: A Pyramid to Insight

All three of these statistical wrenches build a foundation upon which advanced statistical
analysis and data-based decision-making can be accomplished. It also is worth
mentioning that the wrenches are used in a particular order. It takes descriptive statistics
to complete comparative statistics and comparative statistics to complete relational
statistics. Think of it as a pyramid building toward more advanced and insightful analysis
and decision-making. Keeping statistics simple is an ongoing battle. The barrier needs to
be kept low to enable more folks to leverage the power of Six Sigma without losing the
statistical rigor.