This spreadsheet was prepared by U Dinesh Kumar, Professor of Decision Sciences and

Information Systems. Copyright © 2018 by the Indian Institute of Management Bangalore.

No part of the publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means –
electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise (including internet) – without
the permission of the Indian Institute of Management Bangalore.
Date Sales Beat 81 S Sales Beat 98 SKU 95
week 1 137 98
week 1 160 65
week 1 147 60
week 1 191 60
week 1 171 59
week 1 165 58
week 1 168 55
Week 2 208 68
Week 2 161 66
Week 2 126 49
Week 2 154 48
Week 2 174 45
Week 2 136 51
Week 2 151 60
Week 3 181 86
Week 3 171 50
Week 3 83 46
Week 3 165 56
Week 3 200 70
Week 3 161 87
Week 3 126 59
Week 4 183 97
Week 4 212 53
Week 4 104 75
Week 4 187 51
Week 4 154 39
Week 4 144 53
Week 4 116 65
Week 5 199 70
Week 5 196 70
Week 5 102 56
Week 5 179 61
Week 5 140 23
Week 5 141 67
Week 5 181 72
Week 6 177 129
Week 6 140 60
Week 6 151 71
Week 6 194 63
Week 6 148 73
Week 6 178 77
Week 6 144 45
Week 7 218 68
Week 7 183 57
Week 7 115 82
Week 7 162 71
Week 7 175 60
Week 7 178 50
Week 7 129 69
Week 8 213 108
Week 8 139 56
Week 8 103 62
Week 8 192 73
Week 8 183 66
Week 8 142 65
Week 8 130 75
Week 9 154 94
Week 9 253 53
Week 9 119 69
Week 9 233 66
Week 9 98 83
Week 9 104 64
Week 9 198 92
Date Sales Beat 81 SKU 95 3day MA MAD 4 day MA MAD 5 day MA MAD 6 day MA
8/1/2015 137
8/2/2015 160
8/3/2015 147
8/4/2015 191 148 43
8/5/2015 171 166 5 158.75 12.25
8/6/2015 165 169.6667 4.666667 167.25 2.25 161.2 3.8
8/7/2015 168 175.6667 7.666667 168.5 0.5 166.8 1.2 161.8333
8/8/2015 208 168 40 173.75 34.25 168.4 39.6 167
8/9/2015 161 180.3333 19.33333 178 17 180.6 19.6 175
8/10/2015 126 179 53 175.5 49.5 174.6 48.6 177.3333
8/11/2015 154 165 11 165.75 11.75 165.6 11.6 166.5
8/12/2015 174 147 27 162.25 11.75 163.4 10.6 163.6667
8/13/2015 136 151.3333 15.33333 153.75 17.75 164.6 28.6 165.1667
8/14/2015 151 154.6667 3.666667 147.5 3.5 150.2 0.8 159.8333
8/15/2015 181 153.6667 27.33333 153.75 27.25 148.2 32.8 150.3333
8/16/2015 171 156 15 160.5 10.5 159.2 11.8 153.6667
8/17/2015 83 167.6667 84.66667 159.75 76.75 162.6 79.6 161.1667
8/18/2015 165 145 20 146.5 18.5 144.4 20.6 149.3333
8/19/2015 200 139.6667 60.33333 150 50 150.2 49.8 147.8333
8/20/2015 161 149.3333 11.66667 154.75 6.25 160 1 158.5
8/21/2015 126 175.3333 49.33333 152.25 26.25 156 30 160.1667
8/22/2015 183 162.3333 20.66667 163 20 147 36 151
8/23/2015 212 156.6667 55.33333 167.5 44.5 167 45 153
8/24/2015 104 173.6667 69.66667 170.5 66.5 176.4 72.4 174.5
8/25/2015 187 166.3333 20.66667 156.25 30.75 157.2 29.8 164.3333
8/26/2015 154 167.6667 13.66667 171.5 17.5 162.4 8.4 162.1667
8/27/2015 144 148.3333 4.333333 164.25 20.25 168 24 161
8/28/2015 116 161.6667 45.66667 147.25 31.25 160.2 44.2 164
8/29/2015 199 138 61 150.25 48.75 141 58 152.8333
8/30/2015 196 153 43 153.25 42.75 160 36 150.6667
8/31/2015 102 170.3333 68.33333 163.75 61.75 161.8 59.8 166
9/1/2015 179 165.6667 13.33333 153.25 25.75 151.4 27.6 151.8333
9/2/2015 140 159 19 169 29 158.4 18.4 156
9/3/2015 141 140.3333 0.666667 154.25 13.25 163.2 22.2 155.3333
9/4/2015 181 153.3333 27.66667 140.5 40.5 151.6 29.4 159.5
9/5/2015 177 154 23 160.25 16.75 148.6 28.4 156.5
9/6/2015 140 166.3333 26.33333 159.75 19.75 163.6 23.6 153.3333
9/7/2015 151 166 15 159.75 8.75 155.8 4.8 159.6667
9/8/2015 194 156 38 162.25 31.75 158 36 155
9/9/2015 148 161.6667 13.66667 165.5 17.5 168.6 20.6 164
9/10/2015 178 164.3333 13.66667 158.25 19.75 162 16 165.1667
9/11/2015 144 173.3333 29.33333 167.75 23.75 162.2 18.2 164.6667
9/12/2015 218 156.6667 61.33333 166 52 163 55 159.1667
9/13/2015 183 180 3 172 11 176.4 6.6 172.1667
9/14/2015 115 181.6667 66.66667 180.75 65.75 174.2 59.2 177.5
9/15/2015 162 172 10 165 3 167.6 5.6 164.3333
9/16/2015 175 153.3333 21.66667 169.5 5.5 164.4 10.6 166.6667
9/17/2015 178 150.6667 27.33333 158.75 19.25 170.6 7.4 166.1667
9/18/2015 129 171.6667 42.66667 157.5 28.5 162.6 33.6 171.8333
9/19/2015 213 160.6667 52.33333 161 52 151.8 61.2 157
9/20/2015 139 173.3333 34.33333 173.75 34.75 171.4 32.4 162
9/21/2015 103 160.3333 57.33333 164.75 61.75 166.8 63.8 166
9/22/2015 192 151.6667 40.33333 146 46 152.4 39.6 156.1667
9/23/2015 183 144.6667 38.33333 161.75 21.25 155.2 27.8 159
9/24/2015 142 159.3333 17.33333 154.25 12.25 166 24 159.8333
9/25/2015 130 172.3333 42.33333 155 25 151.8 21.8 162
9/26/2015 154 151.6667 2.333333 161.75 7.75 150 4 148.1667
9/27/2015 253 142 111 152.25 100.75 160.2 92.8 150.6667
9/28/2015 119 179 60 169.75 50.75 172.4 53.4 175.6667
9/29/2015 233 175.3333 57.66667 164 69 159.6 73.4 163.5
9/30/2015 98 201.6667 103.6667 189.75 91.75 177.8 79.8 171.8333
10/1/2015 104 150 46 175.75 71.75 171.4 67.4 164.5
10/2/2015 198 145 53 138.5 59.5 161.4 36.6 160.1667
10/3/2015 241 133.3333 107.6667 158.25 82.75 150.4 90.6 167.5
10/4/2015 230 181 49 160.25 69.75 174.8 55.2 165.5
10/5/2015 77 223 146 193.25 116.25 174.2 97.2 184
10/6/2015 172 182.6667 10.66667 186.5 14.5 170 2 158
10/7/2015 160 159.6667 0.333333 180 20 183.6 23.6 170.3333
10/8/2015 161 136.3333 24.66667 159.75 1.25 176 15 179.6667
10/9/2015 160 164.3333 4.333333 142.5 17.5 160 0 173.5
### 148 160.3333 12.33333 163.25 15.25 146 2 160
### 192 156.3333 35.66667 157.25 34.75 160.2 31.8 146.3333
### 78 166.6667 88.66667 165.25 87.25 164.2 86.2 165.5
### 179 139.3333 39.66667 144.5 34.5 147.8 31.2 149.8333
### 181 149.6667 31.33333 149.25 31.75 151.4 29.6 153
### 193 146 47 157.5 35.5 155.6 37.4 156.3333
### 171 184.3333 13.33333 157.75 13.25 164.6 6.4 161.8333
### 114 181.6667 67.66667 181 67 160.4 46.4 165.6667
### 221 159.3333 61.66667 164.75 56.25 167.6 53.4 152.6667
### 109 168.6667 59.66667 174.75 65.75 176 67 176.5
### 160 148 12 153.75 6.25 161.6 1.6 164.8333
### 172 163.3333 8.666667 151 21 155 17 161.3333
### 128 147 19 165.5 37.5 155.2 27.2 157.8333
### 196 153.3333 42.66667 142.25 53.75 158 38 150.6667
### 206 165.3333 40.66667 164 42 153 53 164.3333
### 194 176.6667 17.33333 175.5 18.5 172.4 21.6 161.8333
### 128 198.6667 70.66667 181 53 179.2 51.2 176
### 189 176 13 181 8 170.4 18.6 170.6667
### 154 170.3333 16.33333 179.25 25.25 182.6 28.6 173.5
### 150 157 7 166.25 16.25 174.2 24.2 177.8333
### 174 164.3333 9.666667 155.25 18.75 163 11 170.1667
### 160 159.3333 0.666667 166.75 6.75 159 1 164.8333
MAD 35.1236 MAD 33.70455 MAD 33.02069 MAD
MAD 7 day MA MAD 8 day MA MAD 9 day MA MAD 10 day MA MAD

6.166667
41 162.7143 45.28571
14 172.8571 11.85714 168.375 7.375
51.33333 173 47 171.375 45.375 167.5556 41.55556
12.5 170 16 167.125 13.125 166.3333 12.33333 163.4 9.4
10.33333 164.7143 9.285714 168 6 165.6667 8.333333 165.1 8.9
29.16667 165.1429 29.14286 165.875 29.875 168.6667 32.66667 166.5 30.5
8.833333 161 10 161.5 10.5 162.5556 11.55556 165.4 14.4
30.66667 158.5714 22.42857 159.75 21.25 160.3333 20.66667 161.4 19.6
17.33333 154.7143 16.28571 161.375 9.625 162.1111 8.888889 162.4 8.6
78.16667 156.1429 73.14286 156.75 73.75 162.4444 79.44444 163 80
15.66667 150 15 147 18 148.5556 16.44444 154.5 10.5
52.16667 151.5714 48.42857 151.875 48.125 149 51 150.2 49.8
2.5 155.2857 5.714286 157.625 3.375 157.2222 3.777778 154.1 6.9
34.16667 158.8571 32.85714 156 30 158 32 157.6 31.6
32 155.2857 27.71429 154.75 28.25 152.6667 30.33333 154.8 28.2
59 155.5714 56.42857 158.75 53.25 157.8889 54.11111 155.7 56.3
70.5 161.4286 57.42857 162.625 58.625 164.6667 60.66667 163.3 59.3
22.66667 164.4286 22.57143 154.25 32.75 156.1111 30.88889 158.6 28.4
8.166667 167.5714 13.57143 167.25 13.25 157.8889 3.888889 159.2 5.2
17 161 17 165.875 21.875 165.7778 21.77778 157.5 13.5
48 158.5714 42.57143 158.875 42.875 163.4444 47.44444 163.6 47.6
46.16667 157.1429 41.85714 153.25 45.75 154.1111 44.88889 158.7 40.3
45.33333 159.4286 36.57143 162.375 33.625 158.3333 37.66667 158.6 37.4
64 157.1429 55.14286 164 62 166.1111 64.11111 162.1 60.1
27.16667 156.8571 22.14286 150.25 28.75 157.1111 21.88889 159.7 19.3
16 155.7143 15.71429 159.625 19.625 153.4444 13.44444 159.3 19.3
14.33333 153.7143 12.71429 153.75 12.75 157.4444 16.44444 152.1 11.1
21.5 153.2857 27.71429 152.125 28.875 152.3333 28.66667 155.8 25.2
20.5 162.5714 14.42857 156.75 20.25 155.3333 21.66667 155.2 21.8
13.33333 159.4286 19.42857 164.375 24.375 159 19 157.5 17.5
8.666667 151.4286 0.428571 157 6 161.6667 10.66667 157.1 6.1
39 158.4286 35.57143 151.375 42.625 156.3333 37.66667 160.6 33.4
16 160.5714 12.57143 162.875 14.875 156.1111 8.111111 160.1 12.1
12.83333 161.7143 16.28571 159 19 161.2222 16.77778 155.3 22.7
20.66667 167 23 163.75 19.75 161.1111 17.11111 162.9 18.9
58.83333 161.7143 56.28571 164.125 53.875 161.5556 56.44444 159.4 58.6
10.83333 167.5714 15.42857 168.75 14.25 170.1111 12.88889 167.2 15.8
62.5 173.7143 58.71429 169.5 54.5 170.3333 55.33333 171.4 56.4
2.333333 168.5714 6.571429 166.375 4.375 163.4444 1.444444 164.8 2.8
8.333333 164 11 167.75 7.25 165.8889 9.111111 163.3 11.7
11.83333 167.8571 10.14286 165.375 12.625 168.5556 9.444444 166.8 11.2
42.83333 167.8571 38.85714 169.125 40.125 166.7778 37.77778 169.5 40.5
56 165.7143 47.28571 163 50 164.6667 48.33333 163 50
23 165 26 171.625 32.625 168.5556 29.55556 169.5 30.5
63 158.7143 55.71429 161.75 58.75 168 65 165.6 62.6
35.83333 157 35 151.75 40.25 155.2222 36.77778 161.5 30.5
24 161.2857 21.71429 161.375 21.625 156.2222 26.77778 158.9 24.1
17.83333 162.4286 20.42857 164 22 163.7778 21.77778 158.9 16.9
32 157.2857 27.28571 159.875 29.875 161.5556 31.55556 161.6 31.6
5.833333 157.4286 3.428571 153.875 0.125 156.5556 2.555556 158.4 4.4
102.3333 149 104 157 96 153.8889 99.11111 156.3 96.7
56.66667 165.2857 46.28571 162 43 167.6667 48.66667 163.8 44.8
69.5 167.5714 65.42857 159.5 73.5 157.2222 75.77778 162.8 70.2
73.83333 173.4286 75.42857 175.75 77.75 167.6667 69.66667 164.8 66.8
60.5 161.2857 57.28571 164 60 167.1111 63.11111 160.7 56.7
37.83333 155.8571 42.14286 154.125 43.875 157.3333 40.66667 160.8 37.2
73.5 165.5714 75.42857 161.125 79.875 159 82 161.4 79.6
64.5 178 52 175 55 170 60 167.2 62.8
107 174.7143 97.71429 184.5 107.5 181.1111 104.1111 176 99
14 168.7143 3.285714 162.5 9.5 172.5556 0.555556 170.7 1.3
10.33333 160 0 169.125 9.125 163.5556 3.555556 172.5 12.5
18.66667 168.8571 7.857143 160 1 168.1111 7.111111 163.2 2.2
13.5 177 17 167.875 7.875 160.1111 0.111111 167.4 7.4
12 171.5714 23.57143 174.875 26.875 167 19 160.1 12.1
45.66667 158.2857 33.71429 168.625 23.375 171.8889 20.11111 165.1 26.9
87.5 152.8571 74.85714 162.5 84.5 171.2222 93.22222 173.9 95.9
29.16667 153 26 143.5 35.5 153.1111 25.88889 161.9 17.1
28 154 27 156.25 24.75 147.4444 33.55556 155.7 25.3
36.66667 157 36 157.375 35.625 159 34 150.8 42.2
9.166667 161.5714 9.428571 161.5 9.5 161.3333 9.666667 162.4 8.6
51.66667 163.1429 49.14286 162.75 48.75 162.5556 48.55556 162.3 48.3
68.33333 158.2857 62.71429 157 64 157.3333 63.66667 157.7 63.3
67.5 162.4286 53.42857 166.125 57.125 164.1111 55.11111 163.7 54.7
4.833333 166.8571 6.857143 155.75 4.25 159.7778 0.222222 158.6 1.4
10.66667 164.1429 7.857143 166 6 156.2222 15.77778 159.8 12.2
29.83333 162.8571 34.85714 165.125 37.125 166.6667 38.66667 157.8 29.8
45.33333 153.5714 42.42857 158.5 37.5 161 35 162.8 33.2
41.66667 157.1429 48.85714 158.875 47.125 162.6667 43.33333 164.5 41.5
32.16667 170.2857 23.71429 163.25 30.75 164.1111 29.88889 167 27
48 166.4286 38.42857 173.25 45.25 166.6667 38.66667 167.1 39.1
18.33333 169.1429 19.85714 161.625 27.375 168.2222 20.77778 162.8 26.2
19.5 173.2857 19.28571 171.625 17.625 164.6667 10.66667 170.3 16.3
27.83333 170.7143 20.71429 170.875 20.875 169.6667 19.66667 163.6 13.6
3.833333 173.8571 0.142857 168.125 5.875 168.5556 5.444444 167.7 6.3
4.833333 170.7143 10.71429 173.875 13.875 168.7778 8.777778 169.1 9.1
33.79651 MAD 31.77143 MAD 32.80208 MAD 32.4672 MAD 31.57073
 1 1
Date Sales Beat 81 SKU 95 Weightages 3 Day WMA MAD Weightages 4 day WMA
8/1/2015 137 0.487627196 0.41770471469
8/2/2015 160 0.347946263 0.36971758122
8/3/2015 147 0.164426542 0.20393574956
8/4/2015 191 146.6470294 44.35297 0.00864195373
8/5/2015 171 160.5739214 10.42608 148.0095273
8/6/2015 165 166.2558725 1.255873 161.610741
8/7/2015 168 179.7659846 11.76598 168.3175866
8/8/2015 208 168.4190428 39.58096 178.1045538
8/9/2015 161 173.1141801 12.11418 168.4896394
8/10/2015 126 180.7668647 54.76686 174.843822
8/11/2015 154 178.1635492 24.16355 180.9981908
8/12/2015 174 147.670895 26.32911 173.4338765
8/13/2015 136 143.6349693 7.634969 146.7446797
8/14/2015 151 157.9992475 6.999247 146.2274277
8/15/2015 181 156.9962315 24.00377 157.6975821
8/16/2015 171 148.6183883 22.38161 155.3207032
8/17/2015 83 164.7269187 81.72692 151.0253407
8/18/2015 165 161.4067363 3.593264 165.5825895
8/19/2015 200 139.3941696 60.60583 157.1788493
8/20/2015 161 130.7694989 30.2305 137.4918549
8/21/2015 126 176.520413 50.52041 137.8513967
8/22/2015 183 174.2625316 8.737468 176.787336
8/23/2015 212 152.4392647 59.56074 170.3428555
8/24/2015 104 159.9736195 55.97362 152.9872107
8/25/2015 187 180.1007448 6.899255 164.4222535
8/26/2015 154 170.3111401 16.31114 177.6454533
8/27/2015 144 141.1008669 2.899133 166.470874
8/28/2015 116 168.447432 52.44743 145.2290248
8/29/2015 199 144.2723288 54.72767 165.4165037
8/30/2015 196 143.3009644 52.69904 142.9421535
8/31/2015 102 158.0336631 56.03366 145.3137554
9/1/2015 179 182.0067866 3.006787 162.8804318
9/2/2015 140 160.4978001 20.4978 177.9362403
9/3/2015 141 135.0400708 5.959929 157.2956901
9/4/2015 181 159.1818872 21.81811 138.5548483
9/5/2015 177 147.0894345 29.91057 156.8487396
9/6/2015 140 160.837206 20.83721 149.0508355
9/7/2015 151 172.8667267 21.86673 163.1217482
9/8/2015 194 159.8508982 34.1491 170.9005052
9/9/2015 148 152.7064421 4.706442 158.1650331
9/10/2015 178 165.4684096 12.53159 155.1485594
9/11/2015 144 175.3636472 31.36365 166.5193814
9/12/2015 218 157.7806817 60.21932 173.2979214
9/13/2015 183 172.7468887 10.25311 158.8807211
9/14/2015 115 176.1606585 61.16066 173.6302418
9/15/2015 162 188.885947 26.88595 179.0619785
9/16/2015 175 155.8866967 19.1133 183.5705529
9/17/2015 178 141.2190668 36.78093 153.507418
9/18/2015 129 169.1541261 40.15413 145.1573143
9/19/2015 213 168.4802178 44.51978 169.7841159
9/20/2015 139 166.7055621 27.70556 167.0565024
9/21/2015 103 159.8717515 56.87175 166.6845534
9/22/2015 192 169.165057 22.83494 161.8709434
9/23/2015 183 135.1885412 47.81146 163.0264853
9/24/2015 142 147.1213407 5.121341 136.8790077
9/25/2015 130 180.6471565 50.64716 152.5567608
9/26/2015 154 160.0195965 6.019597 177.939953
9/27/2015 253 139.7977633 113.2022 156.7823676
9/28/2015 119 158.5751749 39.57517 140.9698748
9/29/2015 233 182.691751 50.30825 163.8622575
9/30/2015 98 203.08667 105.0867 184.1470035
10/1/2015 104 155.2129165 51.21292 198.0396261
10/2/2015 198 164.8162307 33.18377 156.7355241
10/3/2015 241 116.5303317 124.4697 156.4779463
10/4/2015 230 159.2333849 70.76662 121.8476797
10/5/2015 77 218.2233386 141.2233 167.7815364
10/6/2015 172 210.2066382 38.20664 219.3781234
10/7/2015 160 167.2274824 7.227482 202.8913487
10/8/2015 161 123.7022979 37.2977 160.9999997
10/9/2015 160 166.0159529 6.015953 129.7757615
### 148 160.3479462 12.34795 165.2163922
### 192 158.5145087 33.48549 160.266014
### 78 161.0862942 83.08629 158.2470181
### 179 151.7997776 27.20022 161.3806927
### 181 150.196581 30.80342 150.2599715
### 193 130.0785063 62.92149 147.1059694
### 171 181.9978641 10.99786 137.3406825
### 114 183.5310897 69.53109 182.5253999
### 221 172.3554854 48.64451 182.8182424
### 109 159.3883901 50.38839 168.9972635
### 160 150.4081174 9.591883 159.5870841
### 172 171.9999995 4.75E-07 152.9376322
### 128 137.1041315 9.104131 166.7280943
### 196 158.9137058 37.08629 140.8677459
### 206 160.6366014 45.3634 158.2217772
### 194 164.4856161 29.51438 160.9207107
### 128 199.1506095 71.15061 169.6181528
### 189 188.9993746 0.000625 198.7016513
### 154 170.2134139 16.21341 185.5094872
### 150 153.4998121 3.499812 168.2332826
### 174 170.4092457 3.590754 156.0452248
### 160 155.8967458 4.103254 167.976761
MAD 34.58303 MAD
 1
MAD Weightages 5 day WMA MAD
0.254758199
0.2785144
0.404485646
0.052241754
22.99047 0.01
3.389259 150.6117425 14.38825753
0.317587 169.5430272 1.543027199
29.89545 170.1126408 37.88735923
7.489639 173.8815249 12.88152491
48.84382 169.9484016 43.94840164
26.99819 182.629459 28.62945905
0.566123 173.9750229 0.024977128
10.74468 158.5809455 22.58094552
4.772572 148.8497393 2.150260665
23.30242 153.9861318 27.01386816
15.6793 152.4028212 18.59717883
68.02534 154.4489753 71.44897527
0.582589 159.6780316 5.321968444
42.82115 164.0327057 35.9672943
23.50815 137.9293946 23.07060535
11.8514 145.4788298 19.47882984
6.212664 157.6678583 25.33214166
41.65714 171.2726331 40.72736693
48.98721 158.4378908 54.4378908
22.57775 162.2450098 24.75499025
23.64545 176.1217679 22.12176787
22.47087 159.0415186 15.04151863
29.22902 168.0982819 52.09828193
33.5835 149.5506478 49.44935223
53.05785 156.8269775 39.1730225
43.31376 138.6152804 36.61528044
16.11957 160.7448786 18.25512137
37.93624 171.3741624 31.37416243
16.29569 157.2945141 16.29451409
42.44515 159.4678522 21.53214779
20.15126 141.6434919 35.35650814
9.050835 152.8519674 12.8519674
12.12175 158.7953709 7.795370875
23.09949 166.7498176 27.25018241
10.16503 161.8647783 13.86477833
22.85144 156.7764503 21.22354972
 22.51938 165.7038174 21.7038174
44.70208 163.1031897 54.89681029
24.11928 172.3444796 10.6555204
58.63024 158.7444123 43.7444123
17.06198 184.3411451 22.34114509
8.570553 179.049995 4.049995019
24.49258 163.2344362 14.76556376
16.15731 155.0988882 26.09888824
43.21588 155.7905462 57.20945382
28.0565 170.8784797 31.87847972
63.68455 158.8543902 55.8543902
30.12906 175.7223637 16.27763634
19.97351 155.7117805 27.28821947
5.120992 146.4994365 4.499436507
22.55676 152.7398581 22.7398581
23.93995 162.4540618 8.454061813
96.21763 165.6500994 87.34990062
21.96987 149.3281595 30.32815952
69.13774 149.0804898 83.91951025
86.147 186.8914209 88.89142088
94.03963 170.9830267 66.98302667
41.26448 198.0018856 0.001885588
84.52205 142.2628168 98.7371832
108.1523 141.4734462 88.52655375
90.78154 148.910222 71.91022197
47.37812 191.9073483 19.9073483
42.89135 216.3384077 56.3384077
3.479E-07 167.1860146 6.18601462
30.22424 159.5802065 0.419793467
17.21639 142.2494841 5.750515907
31.73399 163.3415841 28.6584159
80.24702 159.9716134 81.97161341
17.61931 156.2526666 22.74733335
30.74003 165.5075441 15.49245592
45.89403 133.8901328 59.10986719
33.65932 154.4263857 16.57361427
68.5254 154.7297778 40.72977781
38.18176 184.1518939 36.84810611
59.99726 177.1971189 68.19711887
0.412916 155.5410863 4.458913676
19.06237 171.9999728 2.720377E-05
38.72809 144.7617334 16.76173336
55.13225 161.6429168 34.35708315
47.77822 150.5494235 55.45057648
33.07929 152.7393353 41.26066466
41.61815 171.4492416 43.44924162
9.701651 181.9368155 7.063184508
31.50949 194.3537335 40.35373349
18.23328 169.699837 19.69983703
17.95478 171.0659512 2.934048755
7.976761 157.1153239 2.884676121
32.81146 MAD 31.00221267
 Alpha 0.064808

Date Sales Beat 81 SKU 95 ES method MAD

8/1/2015 137
8/2/2015 160 137 23
8/3/2015 147 138.4905728 8.509427
8/4/2015 191 139.0420476 51.95795
8/5/2015 171 142.4093132 28.59069
8/6/2015 165 144.2622044 20.7378
8/7/2015 168 145.6061694 22.39383
8/8/2015 208 147.0574578 60.94254
8/9/2015 161 151.0069923 9.993008
8/10/2015 126 151.6546143 25.65461
8/11/2015 154 149.9920025 4.007997
8/12/2015 174 150.2517509 23.74825
8/13/2015 136 151.7908158 15.79082
8/14/2015 151 150.7674523 0.232548
8/15/2015 181 150.7825232 30.21748
8/16/2015 171 152.7408426 18.25916
8/17/2015 83 153.9241732 70.92417
8/18/2015 165 149.327754 15.67225
8/19/2015 200 150.3434333 49.65657
8/20/2015 161 153.5615518 7.438448
8/21/2015 126 154.0436191 28.04362
8/22/2015 183 152.226182 30.77382
8/23/2015 212 154.2205565 57.77944
8/24/2015 104 157.9650985 53.9651
8/25/2015 187 154.4677547 32.53225
8/26/2015 154 156.5760886 2.576089
8/27/2015 144 156.4091387 12.40914
8/28/2015 116 155.6049333 39.60493
8/29/2015 199 153.0382361 45.96176
8/30/2015 196 156.0169037 39.9831
8/31/2015 102 158.6081086 56.60811
9/1/2015 179 154.939478 24.06052
9/2/2015 140 156.4987805 16.49878
9/3/2015 141 155.4295356 14.42954
9/4/2015 181 154.4943933 26.50561
9/5/2015 177 156.2121558 20.78784
9/6/2015 140 157.5593642 17.55936
9/7/2015 151 156.4213855 5.421386
9/8/2015 194 156.070039 37.92996
9/9/2015 148 158.5281854 10.52819
9/10/2015 178 157.8458799 20.15412
9/11/2015 144 159.1520183 15.15202
9/12/2015 218 158.1700537 59.82995
9/13/2015 183 162.0474836 20.95252
9/14/2015 115 163.405364 48.40536
9/15/2015 162 160.2683329 1.731667
9/16/2015 175 160.3805579 14.61944
9/17/2015 178 161.3280076 16.67199
9/18/2015 129 162.4084779 33.40848
9/19/2015 213 160.2433576 52.75664
9/20/2015 139 163.6623843 24.66238
9/21/2015 103 162.0640765 59.06408
9/22/2015 192 158.2362807 33.76372
9/23/2015 183 160.4244233 22.57558
9/24/2015 142 161.8874903 19.88749
9/25/2015 130 160.5986315 30.59863
9/26/2015 154 158.6156104 4.61561
9/27/2015 253 158.3164841 94.68352
9/28/2015 119 164.4526872 45.45269
9/29/2015 233 161.5070116 71.49299
9/30/2015 98 166.1402943 68.14029
10/1/2015 104 161.7242914 57.72429
10/2/2015 198 157.9833237 40.01668
10/3/2015 241 160.5767049 80.4233
10/4/2015 230 165.7887385 64.21126
10/5/2015 77 169.9501106 92.95011
10/6/2015 172 163.9262453 8.073755
10/7/2015 160 164.4494852 4.449485
10/8/2015 161 164.1611251 3.161125
10/9/2015 160 163.9562605 3.95626
### 148 163.6998651 15.69987
### 192 162.6823959 29.3176
### 78 164.5823969 86.5824
### 179 158.9712072 20.02879
### 181 160.2692234 20.73078
### 193 161.6127335 31.38727
### 171 163.6468641 7.353136
### 114 164.1234025 50.1234
### 221 160.8750295 60.12497
### 109 164.7715793 55.77158
### 160 161.157162 1.157162
### 172 161.0821692 10.91783
### 128 161.7897266 33.78973
### 196 159.5998986 36.4001
### 206 161.9588985 44.0411
### 194 164.8130927 29.18691
### 128 166.7046236 38.70462
### 189 164.1962732 24.80373
### 154 165.803741 11.80374
### 150 165.0387699 15.03877
### 174 164.0641447 9.935855
### 160 164.7080627 4.708063
MAD 30.91076
 Date X Sales Beat 81 SKU 95 Average Demand Seasonality Factor
8/1/2015 1 137 181.357142857143 1.1193637935963
8/2/2015 2 160 188.615384615385 1.1641627626435
8/3/2015 3 147 110.923076923077 0.6846340553556
8/4/2015 4 191 181.307692307692 1.1190585773045
8/5/2015 5 171 162.307692307692 1.0017876954232
8/6/2015 6 165 152.384615384615 0.9405409595419
8/7/2015 7 168 157.230769230769 0.9704521561351
8/8/2015 8 208 1.1193637935963
8/9/2015 9 161 1.1641627626435
8/10/2015 10 126 0.6846340553556
8/11/2015 11 154 1.1190585773045
8/12/2015 12 174 1.0017876954232
8/13/2015 13 136 0.9405409595419
8/14/2015 14 151 0.9704521561351
8/15/2015 15 181 1.1193637935963
8/16/2015 16 171 1.1641627626435
8/17/2015 17 83 0.6846340553556
8/18/2015 18 165 1.1190585773045
8/19/2015 19 200 1.0017876954232
8/20/2015 20 161 0.9405409595419
8/21/2015 21 126 0.9704521561351
8/22/2015 22 183 1.1193637935963
8/23/2015 23 212 1.1641627626435
8/24/2015 24 104 0.6846340553556
8/25/2015 25 187 1.1190585773045
8/26/2015 26 154 1.0017876954232
8/27/2015 27 144 0.9405409595419
8/28/2015 28 116 0.9704521561351
8/29/2015 29 199 1.1193637935963
8/30/2015 30 196 1.1641627626435
8/31/2015 31 102 0.6846340553556
9/1/2015 32 179 1.1190585773045
9/2/2015 33 140 1.0017876954232
9/3/2015 34 141 0.9405409595419
9/4/2015 35 181 0.9704521561351
9/5/2015 36 177 1.1193637935963
9/6/2015 37 140 1.1641627626435
9/7/2015 38 151 0.6846340553556
9/8/2015 39 194 1.1190585773045
9/9/2015 40 148 1.0017876954232
9/10/2015 41 178 0.9405409595419
9/11/2015 42 144 0.9704521561351
9/12/2015 43 218 1.1193637935963
9/13/2015 44 183 1.1641627626435
 9/14/2015 45 115 0.6846340553556
9/15/2015 46 162 1.1190585773045
9/16/2015 47 175 1.0017876954232
9/17/2015 48 178 0.9405409595419
9/18/2015 49 129 0.9704521561351
9/19/2015 50 213 1.1193637935963
9/20/2015 51 139 1.1641627626435
9/21/2015 52 103 0.6846340553556
9/22/2015 53 192 1.1190585773045
9/23/2015 54 183 1.0017876954232
9/24/2015 55 142 0.9405409595419
9/25/2015 56 130 0.9704521561351
9/26/2015 57 154 1.1193637935963
9/27/2015 58 253 1.1641627626435
9/28/2015 59 119 0.6846340553556
9/29/2015 60 233 1.1190585773045
9/30/2015 61 98 1.0017876954232
10/1/2015 62 104 0.9405409595419
10/2/2015 63 198 0.9704521561351
10/3/2015 64 241 1.1193637935963
10/4/2015 65 230 1.1641627626435
10/5/2015 66 77 0.6846340553556
10/6/2015 67 172 1.1190585773045
10/7/2015 68 160 1.0017876954232
10/8/2015 69 161 0.9405409595419
10/9/2015 70 160 0.9704521561351
10/10/2015 71 148 1.1193637935963
10/11/2015 72 192 1.1641627626435
10/12/2015 73 78 0.6846340553556
10/13/2015 74 179 1.1190585773045
10/14/2015 75 181 1.0017876954232
10/15/2015 76 193 0.9405409595419
10/16/2015 77 171 0.9704521561351
10/17/2015 78 114 1.1193637935963
10/18/2015 79 221 1.1641627626435
10/19/2015 80 109 0.6846340553556
10/20/2015 81 160 1.1190585773045
10/21/2015 82 172 1.0017876954232
10/22/2015 83 128 0.9405409595419
10/23/2015 84 196 0.9704521561351
10/24/2015 85 206 1.1193637935963
10/25/2015 86 194 1.1641627626435
10/26/2015 87 128 0.6846340553556
10/27/2015 88 189 1.1190585773045
10/28/2015 89 154 1.0017876954232
10/29/2015 90 150 0.9405409595419
10/30/2015 91 174 0.9704521561351
10/31/2015 92 160 1.1193637935963
Deseasonalised Demand Deseasonalized Forecast Seasonalized Forecast MAD
122.390951702886 159.839434621837 178.918475904583 41.91848
137.437826680427 159.88731635268 186.134859916785 26.13486
214.713245492372 159.935198083523 109.49708325802 37.50292
170.679179690544 159.983079814366 179.030437689858 11.96956
170.694849598607 160.030961545209 160.317048162735 10.68295
175.430956330033 160.078843276052 150.560708857213 14.43929
173.115180318703 160.126725006895 155.395325537792 12.60467
185.819839081753 160.174606737738 179.293655435746 28.70634
138.29681309718 160.222488468581 186.525054813194 25.52505
184.039924707747 160.270370199425 109.726553502972 16.27345
137.615673677193 160.318251930268 179.40551492103 25.40551
173.689496082793 160.366133661111 160.652819464294 13.34718
144.597636732633 160.414015391954 150.875951960715 14.87595
155.597572786453 160.461897122797 155.720594040345 4.720594
161.698994585564 160.50977885364 179.668834966909 1.331165
146.886677264707 160.557660584483 186.915249709603 15.91525
121.232648815421 160.605542315326 109.956023747923 26.95602
147.445364654135 160.653424046169 179.780592152203 14.78059
199.643098945739 160.701305777012 160.988590765853 39.01141
171.178084661426 160.749187507855 151.191195064216 9.808805
129.836385239027 160.797069238698 156.045862542898 30.04586
163.485723807504 160.844950969541 180.044014498072 2.955986
182.105120351566 160.892832700384 187.305444606012 24.69456
151.905969600045 160.940714431227 110.185493992875 6.185494
167.10474660802 160.98859616207 180.155669383376 6.844331
153.725186188219 161.036477892913 161.324362067412 7.324362
153.103380069847 161.084359623757 151.506438167718 7.506438
119.531910220057 161.1322413546 156.371131045451 40.37113
177.779557583023 161.180123085443 180.419194029235 18.58081
168.361337683524 161.228004816286 187.695639502421 8.30436
148.984700953891 161.275886547129 110.414964237827 8.414964
159.955880442971 161.323768277972 180.530746614549 1.530747
139.750169262018 161.371650008815 161.660133368971 21.66013
149.913726318392 161.419531739658 151.82168127122 10.82168
186.510997843364 161.467413470501 156.696399548004 24.3036
158.125536141684 161.515295201344 180.794373560398 3.794374
120.258098345374 161.563176932187 188.08583439883 48.08583
220.555782784681 161.61105866303 110.644434482778 40.35557
173.360004502437 161.658940393873 180.905823845721 13.09418
147.735893219847 161.706822124716 161.99590467053 13.9959
189.252789253006 161.754703855559 152.136924374721 25.86308
148.384440273174 161.802585586402 157.021668050557 13.02167
194.753485191453 161.850467317245 181.169553091561 36.83045
157.194514265739 161.898349048089 188.476029295239 5.476029
167.972947153896 161.946230778932 110.87390472773 4.126095
144.764539842242 161.994112509775 181.280901076894 19.2809
174.687711577522 162.041994240618 162.331675972089 12.66832
189.252789253006 162.089875971461 152.452167478223 25.54783
132.927727744718 162.137757702304 157.346936553109 28.34694
190.286662136603 162.185639433147 181.544732622724 31.45527
119.399111928621 162.23352116399 188.866224191647 49.86622
150.445335276968 162.281402894833 111.103374972682 8.103375
171.572787961175 162.329284625676 181.655978308067 10.34402
182.673435535352 162.377166356519 162.667447273648 20.33255
150.976944235544 162.425048087362 152.767410581724 10.76741
133.958175246615 162.472929818205 157.672205055662 27.67221
137.578150089375 162.520811549048 181.919912153887 27.91991
217.323563438426 162.568693279891 189.256419088056 63.74358
173.815484446206 162.616575010734 111.332845217633 7.667155
208.210727057051 162.664456741577 182.03105553924 50.96894
97.8251184834123 162.712338472421 163.003218575207 65.00322
110.574663383779 162.760220203264 153.082653685226 49.08265
204.028605375614 162.808101934107 157.997473558215 40.00253
215.300871243762 162.85598366495 182.295091685051 58.70491
197.566875853114 162.903865395793 189.646613984465 40.35339
112.468842876957 162.951747126636 111.562315462585 34.56232
153.700622548553 162.999628857479 182.406132770413 10.40613
159.714479156592 163.047510588322 163.338989876766 3.33899
171.178084661426 163.095392319165 153.397896788728 7.602103
164.871600303527 163.143274050008 158.322742060768 1.677258
132.217962423555 163.191155780851 182.670271216214 34.67027
164.925392016513 163.239037511694 190.036808880874 1.963191
113.929477200034 163.286919242537 111.791785707537 33.79179
159.955880442971 163.33480097338 182.781210001585 3.78121
180.677004545894 163.382682704223 163.674761178325 17.32524
205.201058010281 163.430564435066 153.713139892229 39.28686
176.206522824394 163.478446165909 158.648010563321 12.35199
101.843565650576 163.526327896753 183.045450747377 69.04545
189.83599810234 163.574209627596 190.427003777283 30.573
159.209141215432 163.622091358439 112.021255952489 3.021256
142.977323300979 163.669973089282 183.156287232758 23.15629
171.693065093336 163.717854820125 164.010532479884 7.989468
136.09189339542 163.765736550968 154.028382995731 26.02838
201.96771037182 163.813618281811 158.973279065874 37.02672
184.033109859813 163.861500012654 183.42063027854 22.57937
166.643364850018 163.909381743497 190.817198673692 3.182801
186.961193353902 163.95726347434 112.25072619744 15.74927
168.891963149282 164.005145205183 183.531364463931 5.468636
153.725186188219 164.053026936026 164.346303781443 10.3463
159.482687572758 164.100908666869 154.343626099232 4.343626
179.297865330085 164.148790397712 159.298547568427 14.70145
142.938337755195 164.196672128555 183.795809809703 23.79581

MAD 21.32276
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.047268
R Square 0.002234
Adjusted R Square -0.008852
Standard Error 27.1684
Observations 92

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 148.754668417 148.7547 0.201531 0.6545667646
Residual 90 66430.9781369 738.122
Total 91 66579.7328053

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept 159.7916 5.71150183977 27.97715 3.534E-46 148.4446576 171.1384482
X 0.047882 0.10665927019 0.448922 0.654567 -0.164015526 0.259778987
 Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
148.4446576 171.13844819
-0.164015526 0.2597789875
 Date Sales Beat 81 SKU 95
11/1/2015 168
11/2/2015 126
11/3/2015 164
11/4/2015 171
11/5/2015 137
11/6/2015 165
11/7/2015 178
11/8/2015 167
11/9/2015 119
11/10/2015 146
11/11/2015 143
11/12/2015 137
11/13/2015 159
11/14/2015 179
11/15/2015 195
11/16/2015 67
11/17/2015 147
11/18/2015 141
11/19/2015 171
11/20/2015 149
11/21/2015 206
11/22/2015 176
11/23/2015 62
11/24/2015 174
11/25/2015 167
11/26/2015 151
11/27/2015 154
11/28/2015 178
11/29/2015 194
11/30/2015 85