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The new president-elect of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, came into

office without a clear policy platform. On the campaign trail, Duterte had
vowed to get tough on crime, duplicating his efforts as mayor of Davao on
a national level. He had made vague promises of changing the Philippines’
political system to reduce the power of entrenched elites, and he had
offered contradictory, sometimes confusing statements on the Philippines’
major security challenges---the ongoing threat of militant groups in the
southern Philippines, and the growing contest with China over control of
disputed parts of the South China Sea.

Since his election in early May, Duterte’s plans for his six year
presidential term have become clearer. The first president to have come
from the southern Philippines (Duterte was not born in Mindanao, but he
served as mayor of Davao for decades), Duterte clearly intends to make
ending the decades-long wars with southern insurgents and communist
militants a centerpiece of his administration. He also clearly sees a need
for a dramatic decentralization of power away from Manila, both to reduce
the power of elites and to end insurgencies in the south. The
decentralization of political and economic power in Indonesia since 1998
is an obvious inspiration for Duterte, according to several of his advisors;
before the end of the Suharto regime, Indonesia was one of the most
centralized states in the region. Today, Indonesia is one of the most
federalized states in Southeast Asia, and other countries in the region, like
Myanmar, also are looking at Indonesia as a potential model of
decentralization.

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Politics and Government


Philippines
Rodrigo Duterte
As a new Wall Street Journal  article notes , Duterte intends to change the
constitution to transform the Philippines into a more federal country,
proposing a national referendum for these constitutional change by
2019. Duterte will confront significant hurdles; as the Journal notes,
previous Philippine presidents have not been able to push through
constitutional changes. Still, the idea of decentralization makes real sense
in such a large and diverse country, and decentralization has been
effective in Indonesia in fostering political engagement and promoting
economic competitiveness.

Asia Unbound
CFR fellows and other experts assess the latest issues emerging in Asia today. 1-3
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Duterte also has made clear that he intends to continue many of the
Aquino administration’s economic policies, which should be reassuring to
domestic and foreign investors. The Duterte administration, however,
hopes to shift the Philippines’ economy in a way that brings broader
growth. Duterte has promised to use his power to foster growth that not
only expands the economy but helps reduce the Philippines’ high income
inequality. Such a strategy includes fostering investment in the south and
other outlying regions, and in making the economy more reliant on
agricultural and manufacturing exports, rather than consumption,
according to Duterte economic advisor Ernesto Pernia. As he notes, an
economy so dependent on consumption is not creating enough jobs,
especially given the Philippines’ high birth rate. The government also
apparently plans to create new special economic zones, designed to attract
investment, in areas other than Metro Manila and Central Luzon.

Finally, Duterte has begun to offer some clarity about his policies on the
South China Sea. Although, on the campaign trail, he often offered an
olive branch to Beijing, suggesting he would break from the Aquino
administration’s tough rhetorical approach and increasing military
buildup. But there is little evidence that Duterte is going to completely
break from Aquino’s policies. He has said that he will not rely on the
United States for long-term security guarantees, and that his
administration would be open to direct talks with Beijing about disputed
areas, but he also has stated that the Philippines is not going to give up its
rights to Scarborough Shoal. He also has not pulled back from the
Philippines’ case before international arbitration in The Hague, as some of
his critics suggested he might.

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