Nat Hazards (2009) 50:269–287

DOI 10.1007/s11069-008-9337-0

ORIGINAL PAPER

Perception of flood risk in Danube Delta, Romania

Iuliana Armaş Æ Eugen Avram

Received: 14 July 2008 / Accepted: 11 December 2008 / Published online: 13 January 2009

Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009

Abstract For exposed and vulnerable communities, the perception of natural risk is an
essential link in the analysis of man–environment coping relationship and also an important
parameter in the quantification of complex vulnerability as a central predictive variable in
the risk equation. The topic of flood risk in related perception is of considerable interest, as
some recently published papers have proven (Messner and Meyer 2005, 2006; Raaijmakers
et al. 2008). The aim of the current study is to reveal the conscious and unconscious attitudes
towards the flood risk for the inhabitants of the Danube Delta/Romania. These attitudes,
defined by different degrees of psychological vulnerability, represent the background for a
series of psycho-behavioural patterns that generate certain adjustment mechanisms and
strategies. Application of a specially designed questionnaire and the statistical analysis of
the results revealed two psychological factors as essential in establishing the psychosocial
vulnerability degree of the interviewed subjects: (i) an internal control factor and (ii) an
external control factor. The persons characterized by inner control have a significantly
reduced general anxiety level in comparison to individuals with the control factor placed
externally. As confidence diminishes, it increases the tendency of the individual to rely on
the external factors for support and security. The lack of resources (indicating lower
resilience) and mistrust in the support given emphasizes non-adaptive behaviours.

Keywords Natural hazards perception
Vulnerability
Cognitive dissonance

1 Introduction

River deltas might have been cradles for prehistoric civilizations (Day et al. 2007); they
remain to be the favoured areas for human habitats, for their high productivity, biodiversity
and favourable economical conditions for river transport (Giosan and Bhattacharya 2005).

I. Armaş (&)
Faculty of Geography, University of Bucharest, Balcescu 1, Sect. 1, Bucharest, Romania
e-mail: iuliaarmas@yahoo.com

E. Avram
Faculty of Psychology, University of Bucharest, Panduri 90, Sect. 5, Bucharest, Romania

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At the same time, they represent regions with high vulnerability to environmental
changes, being extremely susceptible to natural disasters, especially to floods.
The Danube Delta, with an area of 5640 km2, is the largest ecosystem of the humid
zones of Europe. Its state reflects environmental conditions at both local and regional
levels via parameters of liquid and solid but has to insure the water supply for the local
economy and communities (Fig. 1). The Danube Delta lies between Bugeac Plain to the
north and Dobrogea Plateau, which limits it to the south and south-west, and it has evolved
inside a gulf after the Black Sea’s level stabilized 5200 years ago (Giosan et al. 2006).
Hydrologically, the Danube Delta evolved in a natural regime until 1860. The network
of main arms (i.e. Chilia, Sulina, Sf. Gheorghe from north to south) and backwaters
maintained its natural structure until the beginning of the twentieth century, when the
direction of the Sulina arm was rectified to enable sea navigation. During the first half of
the twentieth century a series of canals were built and after 1950, a massive project of
building navigational canals began, thus modifying the hydrographic network inside the
Delta.
Between 1945 and 2007, the average and maximum annual flows had a general ten-
dency to rise, while the average monthly distribution of maximum water flow was large
during the months between March and June. Major floods on the Danube occurred in 1895,
1926, 1942, 1970, 1975, 1981, 1988 and 2006.
Flooding of the delta is important for the dynamics of the entire natural system. Floods
sustain both alluvial processes and the water supply to deltaic lakes. Flooding frequency is
important in flushing the deltaic lake system water, insuring a normal evolution of both
terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. On the other hand, for human communities, floods are
perceived as a risk factor, entailing material damage, human victims and psychological
stress.

Fig. 1 Danube River and Delta

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In the perspective of risk assessment research, every populated place faces a certain risk
to be affected by a disaster, the size of which depends on the specific location, hazards
present, vulnerability and the number of elements at risk.
In this study we focus on social vulnerability as the socioeconomic circumstances and
individual characteristics that make people susceptible to the impact of a hazardous event
(Cutter 1996; Cutter et al. 2003). At the moment, social vulnerability still lacks a broadly
accepted definition; research assessments in this field having limited efficiency and/or
transferability (Birkmann 2005, 2007; Glade 2003; Rashed and Weeks 2003; Fuchs et al.
2007). In this study, an important element of social vulnerability is the perceived natural
risk of an area. From a geographical point of view, risk perception examines the judgments
people make when they evaluate the impact of natural hazardous events.
The topic of flood risk in related perception is of considerable interest, as some recently
published papers have proven (Messner and Meyer 2005, 2006; Raaijmakers et al. 2008).
A major development in the psychological research of risk perception has been the dis-
covery of a set of mental strategies that people employ when dealing with uncertainty
(Kahneman et al. 1982; Slovic 1987; Sjoberg 2000).

2 Objective and methodology

The objective of this study derives from previous studies in the field of natural risk
perception (Armas 2006; Armas and Avram 2008) and is focused on the complex evalu-
ation of flood risk perception. The study has an explorative character, based on the
hypothesis that there are common perceptions regarding the risk factors, and local
inhabitants differ under the aspect of social vulnerability according to a series of demo-
graphical, socio-economical and psychological variables.
Psychosocial investigations took place between 17–21 July 2007 in the village of Sf.
Gheorghe and 1–10 August 2007 in the city of Tulcea, consisting of a ‘‘face-to-face’’
application of a standardized questionnaire with a total number of 32 items.
A total of 153 subjects have been investigated on the field: 86 from the village of Sf.
Gheorghe/Tulcea county, 31 subjects from the central area of Tulcea city, without flood
risk, and 36 from the Tudor Vladimirescu district/Tulcea, which is major risk area (Fig. 2;
Table 1).
The sample has been randomly put together and is not representative of the population
of the Delta with regard to age, sex distribution, education, income etc. The subjects’
attitude has been, in most cases, friendly, most of them showing interest for the issue
presented. For a low percentage of subjects interviewed in the village of Sf. Gheorghe, we
encountered high susceptibility or even hostility as they refused to be interviewed. This
aspect should be interpreted from the perspective of the social tensions existing in the area
since the declaration of the Danube Delta Biosphere Reservation and restrictions imposed
on fishing.
The construction of the items of this questionnaire was made with help from a group of
experts, through qualitative methods (focus-group). To check its validity, the initial
questionnaire was applied to a pilot sample of 100 persons, on the subject of seismic risk in
Bucharest, some of the questions having suffered slight modifications afterwards. Taking
into consideration the complexity of the topic and the need to obtain a level of information
as large and as diverse as possible, six items were set to request open answers: the
indication of the largest considered danger for the household or the most difficult moment
experienced in life linked to a natural event, the behaviour in case of a disaster, the reaction

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in front of a negative scenario, the naming of a series of concrete measures during the
diaster, the evaluation of personal attachment towards material goods or people. The rest of
the items have been coded with answers on a Likert scale of five levels (1 being the lowest
and 5 being the highest).
The items detected cognitive elements, such as expectations (negative expectations
regarding the person, household, psychological balance, health, and the alteration of family
security or social relationships and lifestyle), post-disaster anticipations (degree of resil-
ience) and evaluations/judgements (assignment of the natural disasters), emotional aspects
(the feeling of shame, of fear), abilities (preparing against disaster) and behaviours (active
or passive reporting; strategies in case of future events, devised on the basis of experienced
past events). The level of resilience attributed, as an important variable for evaluating
psycho-social vulnerability, was estimated on the basis of the type of support expected
from entities such as family, friends, government, local authorities etc., the evaluation of
resource level and the orientation towards an external or internal control ‘‘locus’’ in case of
a disaster (Rotter 1966; Phares 1976; Barlow 1988, 2002).
The research stages consisted of descriptive processing of data, identifying common
factors of perceptional risk reporting through means of inferential analyses (correlations,
ANOVA test, clusters analysis, factorial analysis) evaluation of high psycho-social vul-
nerability categories and establishing a psychological profile of the individuals predisposed
to display strong unadaptive behaviour under the conditions of natural risks/floods.

3 Results

3.1 Descriptive analyses

The interpretation of open-answer items shows that around exposed areas, susceptible to
flood risk, the most difficult experiences, with natural causes, are centred on these events:
71.5% of the participants were from Tudor Vladimirescu district and 43.3% from the
village of Sf. Gheorghe.

Fig. 2 a Tulcea city and Tudor Vladimirescu district (investigated sample); b Sf. Gheorghe village
(investigated sample), (aerial photography, 2005 survey)

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Table 1 Main demographic characteristics (percentages)

Sex Age (years) Education Occupation Ownership status

M F 20–35 36–65 Over 66 Middle-school High-school College Civil servant Fishermen Work-at-home Others Retired Tenant Owner

52.4 47.6 10 64.1 25.9 64.7 22.8 12.5 21 8 20.3 12.3 38.4 4.9 95.1
273

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Subjects from districts not exposed to flood danger, in the central sector of Tulcea city,
have appreciated in proportion of over 80% that earthquakes are the largest natural danger
for their households.
Descriptive analyses show that most of the respondents’ evaluations are placed on the
middle level of the scale (on average): placing the blame for an eventual disaster on the
authorities (item 8), the tendency to become anxious during crisis situations (item 14),
the feeling that the risk affects everyday life (item 16), the probability of lifestyle alteration
because of floods (item 21), fear of the flood risk (item 23).
Evaluations set on the superior level of the scale (such as answers of the type ‘‘medium
probability’’ or ‘‘high probability’’) are recorded when reporting the risk to their own
person and personal properties: household damage in case of flood (item 15, 19), physical
and psychological health damage (item 17 and 18, respectively), affecting the family (item
20).
On a lower value seem to be scaled items that are centred on aspects of support and
preparation revolving around answers of the ‘‘low probability’’ type: there is no general
fear that floods would damage relationships with friends or acquaintances (item 22).
Personal preparation in case of a crisis has a low value, towards medium, showing that
interviewed subjects are not prepared well enough for such contingencies (item 25a);
respondents do not expect to be helped by many others in case of a flood (item 28),
recovering of their goods being appreciated as not very probable (item 30), and the locals
lack personal resources in case of crisis situations (item 31).

3.2 Risk perception

To psychologically detect the manner in which the interviewed persons relate to the
disaster of floods, a number of eight items were introduced into the research. They are as
follows: item 1 (the belief that the subject is a lucky person), item 3 (faith in destiny), item
4 (the imminence of danger regardless of personal effort), items 5 and 6 (the degree of
influence that destiny has), item 7 (the belief that misfortunes are punishment for personal
actions), item 8 (projecting disasters as authorities’ fault) and item 9 (the imminence of
disasters in a person’s life, regardless of personal effort). Negatively scaled items were
initially reversed in order to be aggregated (projectional items 3, 4 and 9, which evaluate
the locus of control).
The cluster analysis shows an initial association between items 5 and 6 referring to the
degree of influence upon destiny through personal effort (Fig. 3). On a different level, they
form a cluster with items 1 and 9 (reversed), which we could psychologically call the
internal place of control (sensu Rotter 1966). During subsequent processing we aggregated
the values of each person for these items, high scores being associated with an internal
control of the events. From a psychological point of view, people of this type are char-
acterized by the fact that they perceive adequate solving of major events in their lives as
depending, mostly, on themselves. Placed in the case of a negative scenario such as the loss
of their entire fortune as consequence of a catastrophic flood, persons with a high degree of
internal control gave the smallest number of fatalistic answers (around 6%) and were
constantly oriented towards not requiring support, mentioning that they were trying to
recover by starting all over again in the same place.
In turn, the reversed items 3 and 4 form a cluster, which evolves together with items 7
and 8 to what we may call a factor of external place of control (sensu Rotter 1966). Later,
we also aggregated the values of each person for these items, higher scores being asso-
ciated with an external control of events. Psychologically, people of this type are

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Fig. 3 The dendrogram of medium inter-group connections

characterized by the fact the they perceive solving negative events in their lives as
depending on other instances (luck, destiny, authorities and so on).
To detect the perception on floods in the case of the interviewed persons and their
vulnerability level with consequences on physical, psychological and social levels,
a number of 16 items were introduced in the research, and analysed on the basis of
explorational factorial analysis (Table 2).
The data show common factors of perceiving the risk of flood, the value of the Kaiser-
Meyer-Olkin index (0.84) being statistically acceptable (Morrison 1990; Popa 2004).
Moreover, the level of the Bartlett sphericity test (120) = 834,333, sig. = 0.001) justifies
the application of a factorial reduction procedure.
The items were subjected to a factorial analysis (CPA, Varimax), and only those with
strong enough saturations on certain groupings were kept. Five factors were identified,
based on the Eigen [1 criterium and their saturation mode is displayed in Table 3.
Factor 1 refers to cognitions (the estimated level of losses and consequent preoccupation
towards the imminence of a threat). It explains over 50% of the total variance of the
indicator variables, and concordant with the items in which it is saturated, we could call it
the factor of personal perceived vulnerability. Factor 2 is an emotional type factor, which
implies the energetic costs for stressful situations and the need for relational support, called
the factor of relational vulnerability. The persons who scored high on this factor could be
characterized by an excessive consumption of energetic resources in case of disasters.
Factor 3 is a psychological factor that identifies neurotic manifestations in case of stress
and an inappropriate behavioural adaptation to the demands of extreme events, thus being a
factor of behavioural vulnerability. Factor 4 shows the general direction in life, and it is

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Table 2 Items selected to analyse the perception

Nr. item Item content

10, 11, 12 Refers to the person’s state in front of destiny’s challenge (tiredness, comparative reporting
to the others, degree of unrest)
13 Pessimistic or optimistic attitude in life
14 Tendency to panic in critical situations
15, 19 Appreciating how the household might be affected in case of disaster
16 The feeling that flood risk affects life quality
17 Appreciating the degree of damage to personal health in case of a flood
18 Estimating the level of damage to psychological balance
20 The degree of damage upon their family in case of a flood
21 Probability of changing their lifestyle because of the floods
22 Altering relationships with friends, acquaintances, in case of such a disaster
23 Fear of the imminence of such a scenario (the risk of flood)
24 The level of expectation of such an event
27 The degree of mental exhaustion in such a scenario

Table 3 Saturation mode of the five factors Rotated Component Matrixa

Component

1 2 3 4 5

Item 20 0.849
Item 19 0.797
Item 17 0.781
Item 18 0.771
Item 21 0.727
Item 23 0.700
Item 16 0.696
Item 15 0.690
Item 27_r -0.740
Item 22 0.718
Item 10 0.591
Item 12 0.701
Item 14 0.626
Item 13 0.854
Item 11 0.823
Item 24 0.583
a
Rotation converged in ten iterations
Extraction method: Principal Component Analysis
Rotation method: Varimax with Kaiser Normalization

saturated in only one variable, while Factor 5 indicates that those who have the experience
of having successfully overcome traumatic situations in the past will not project such
events in the future. The factor was called perceived imminence of disasters.

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During subsequent data processing we aggregated the scores of these items which
saturate different factors. High scores of each factor mean that the person confronted with
the imminence of a disaster tends towards an increase of vulnerabilities and a general-
ization of his/her reactions on a physical, mental, socially narrow (family) and socially
extended (friends/aquaintances) levels at the same time.

3.3 Correlational studies

This section focuses on linking locus of control with the vulnerability factors resulting
from the factorial analysis and the manner of correlating the latter with the socio-
economical and demographical variables.
Coefficients with significant, but small values result from the correlational analysis of
the place of control to the factors synthesizing the vulnerability to the danger of floods. The
internal place of control associates significantly-negative with the perceived personal
vulnerability (F1), with the relationship vulnerability (F2) and with the imminence of
disasters (F5). The correlation shows that the interviewed subjects who rely on their
personal force to overcome crisis situations have a general low vulnerability level and the
tendency to not invest much energy in negative scenarios, which they project into future as
far as possible. The positive Chi-square test indicates a general level of anxiety signifi-
cantly low in case of those with conspicuous orientation towards an internal place of
control (Chi-square (8) = 27.6, p \ 0.001).
At the same time, the significantly positive correlation between the internal place of
control and the appreciation of the degree of behavioural correctness in case of a flood,
shows the active orientation of this type of person in the situation of a disaster (r = 0.38;
sig. = 0.001); a fact confirmed also by expert literature (Solomon et al. 1989; Staab et al.
1996; De Silva 1999; Ho 1998; Norris et al. 2001). Personal perceived vulnerability
correlates positively with all the other vulnerability factors. The increase in the values
shows the tendency of these persons to develop unadaptive behaviour during risk situa-
tions, with a generally higher energetic consumption and with a tendency to project such
events into nearer future. We may conclude that such subjects tend to develop a behav-
ioural pattern characterized by a lower capacity of adaptive reaction (Table 4).
In the second part of the analysis, the vulnerability factors mentioned were transformed
into values of rank orders and intercorrelated with socio-demographical variables, in order
to observe possible tendencies of significant association to suggest patterns of behavioural
specificity (Table 5).

Table 4 Table of correlation between factors

Internal control locus Total F2 Total F3 Total F5

Internal control locus (items 5, 6, 1, 9)

Pearson Correlation -0.228* -0.226*
Sig. (2-tailed) 0.006 0.007
Total F1
Pearson Correlation -0.289* 0.234* 0.229* 0.249*
Sig. (2-tailed) 0.000 0.005 0.006 0.003

* Significant correlation at p = 0.01 (bilateral)

Note: All N = 143

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Results thus gained draw attention to the specificity of relating to the environment
depending on the gender of the subjects and the importance of the personal level of
resilience appreciated in the equation of the perceived vulnerability. These variables
associate in patterns of expectations and associated mental constructs.
The correlation values thus obtained underline the tendency of male subjects to asso-
ciate an internal control of the events (r = 0.28; sig. = 0.001, bilateral) and to display a
lower level of vulnerability (correlations significantly negative, but smaller). Better con-
fidence in personal strength can also be sustained by the fact that this category displays a
larger professional activism, while being better remunerated, at the same time, which
increases its degree of resilience compared to the female sex, still caught in bounds of
dependency (even more so in isolated villages such as Sf. Gheorghe composed of an old
population, mostly female). From conversations with the locals it was always rendered
evident the fact that widowed old women, even when they had a family, experienced a
strong state of insecurity towards the environment and dependency.
Results obtained from the application of a number of tests of significance confirm the
differences between the two sexes, and a larger orientation towards an external place of
control in case of female subjects (Gustafson 1998; Ngo 2001; Armas 2006; Armas and
Avram 2008). In agreement with the sex of the subjects, the Mann–Whitney test shows that
more women from the tested samples believe that floods are a danger to their household
(U = 2014.50, N1 = 68, N2 = 52, p \ 0,5 bilateral), can destabilize social relationships
(U = 2263.00, N1 = 68, N2 = 52, p \ 0.01 bilateral), and consider themselves less
prepared to take active stand during the event (U = 1599.00, N1 = 68, N2 = 52, p \ 0.01
bilateral). The female sex generally displays a larger sensitivity to the presence of a food
scenario in the everyday life (U = 1910.50, N1 = 68, N2 = 52, p \ 0.05 bilateral),
anticipating to a larger extent that such events can affect their psychological balance
(U = 1912.00, N1 = 68, N2 = 52, p \ 0.01 bilateral).
The most important factor in identifying the level of vulnerability is appreciated
resilience. With respect to this, persons with a superior educational level have, averagely,
larger incomes and are more active in professional life. The larger the income, the lower
the stress level (r = - 0.23, p \ 0.05), and the locals experience a much more diminished
threat of floods over their households (r = - 0.42, p \ 0.01), or in everyday life (r =
- 0.28, p \ 0.01), maintaining their psychological balance (r = - 0.26, p \ 0.05).1 It is
also interesting how, as the education level grows, the criticism level increases too, and
people are more inclined to blame the authorities for the disasters (r = 0.37, p \ 0.01).
The lower the education level, the stronger the belief that floods will leave a major mark on
their general lifestyle (r = - 0.18, p \ 0.05) and the recovery of losses will be more
difficult (r = 0.37, p \ 0.01). The increase of the number of people in the household
generates a larger responsibility being attributed to the local authorities in case of an
eventual disaster (r = 0.18, p \ 0.05) and strengthens the fear perceived concerning the
security of the family (r = 0.18, p \ 0.05).
Age is negatively associated with monthly income at a significant level, in the sense that
older subjects have, on average, a smaller income compared to younger persons. Aging is
associated positively at a significant level with retirement from a professionally-active life.
The correlation of demographic variables with the items of the questionnaire (the Spear-
man test, bilateral) shows that older population displays a larger relationship vulnerability,

1
The relatively low values of these correlations should be explained in the context of a low economical
level of the tested populations.

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 Table 5 Table of correlation
F1 F2 F3 Type of Years of Income Professional 1-tenant,
support formal activism (1-active, 2-owner
expected education 2-passive)

1 Masc, Correlation cof. -0.182* -0.178* -0.192* 0.307** -0.367**

0 Fem Sig. 0.030 0.034 0.022 0.000 0.000
Nat Hazards (2009) 50:269–287

N 143 143 143 125 138

Religiousness degree Correlation cof. 0.202* 0.219** -0.208* 0.237**
declared: 1—low degree
2—medium degree Sig. 0.016 0.009 0.017 0.007
3—high degree N 143 143 130 129
Age Correlation cof. -0.376** 0.616** 0.171*
Sig. 0.000 0.000 0.041
N 125 138 143
Years of fomal education 1: Cof. de corelatie 0.351** -0.261** 0.221*
1–4, 2: 5–8, 3: 9–12, Sig. 0.000 0.003 0.012
4:13–16 N 113 125 129
Income: Euro, Correlation cof. -0.252** -0.539** -0.215*
1: up to 100 E,
2: 100–200 E,
3: 200–300 E, Sig. 0.005 0.000 0.016
4: 300–400 E,
5: 400–500 E, N 125 120 125
6: over 500

* Significant correlation at p = 0.05 (bilateral)

** Significant correlation at p = 0.01 (bilateral)
279

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through the fact that this category is more dependent on other people’s support and will be
strongly affected in the case of losing it (r = 0.18, p \ 0.05).
The degree of religiousness shows the tendency of the subject to orient himself to an
external place of control towards events, correlating positively at a significant level with
the factors of personal vulnerability (F1) and with a passive, unadaptive behaviour in case
of danger (F3).
Concerning the expected help, the hopes of those investigated, revealed in the answers
given, are presented—ordered by rank—in Table 6.
The rank differences thus illustrated are significant from a statistical point of view
(Friedman chi-square = 76.28; df = 42; p \ 0.001).
The correlations applied concerning the perception of support show that, as the edu-
cational level and income grow, the locals expect a lower support from the family (r =
- 0.29, p \ 0.01), friends (r = - 0.35, p \ 0.01), local authorities (r = - 0.30, p \ 0.01
and r = - 0.21, p \ 0.01), while their expectations from the government increase
(r = 0.23, p \ 0,.05 and r = 0.38, p \ 0.01) as well as from other organizations
(r = 0.38, p \ 0.01 and r = 0.35, p \ 0.01).
Concerning the type of support expected, subjects have mentioned several options:
financial (14%), labour help (19.6%), moral (7%), material goods (25.9%), and others:
including food, shelter etc. (24.5%). Around 9% did not answer this item.
The subjects who expect financial and material support are likely to place more
responsibility on the authorities in case of a disaster (Chi-square (4) = 4.32, p \ 0.01) and
anticipate a decrease in the number of persons who will offer support (Chi-square
(4) = 14.09, p \ 0.01).
Distinctly, the subjects who expect moral support rely mostly on their family (Chi-
square (4) = 25.17, p \ 0.01) and, next to those who expect help in the form of labour or
mixed support, appreciate that floods will have a greater impact on inter-human rela-
tionships (Chi-square (4) = 9.07, p \ 0.05).
Although the samples regarding the ownership title are very unbalanced (4.9% tenants;
95.1% owners), the Mann–Whitney test showed that owners anticipate to recover more of
the losses suffered during the floods (U = 288, N1 = 136, N2 = 7, p \ 0.05 bilateral).
The analysis of correlations between independent variables was run to identify any
possible tendencies of significant association relating to the risk of floods (Table 7).
Stronger correlations appear between the perceived level of personal damage (health,
psychological balance, everyday life, family, household) and the fear that such an event
could happen. Fear results from losing control during the events taking place. People
develop higher sensitivity when their degree of involvement in a dangerous scenario
increases, and the presence of negative thoughts affects the quality of life. Psychological
vulnerability in the presence of danger is also emphasized by the absence of resources and,
therefore, by lower resilience capability.
When self confidence drops, the individual’s orientation towards exterior help and
support increases. When these needs are not fulfilled by society, fear becomes a constant

Table 6 Expected help

Average rank

Family 3.76
Friends 2.48
Local authorities 2.17
Government 1.60

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 Table 7 Correlations between variables (Spearman correlations)
Items* 8 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 25 28
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14 0.19*
15 0.37**
16 0.26** 0.23** 0.58**
17 0.29** 0.48**
18 0.26** 0.38** 0.53** 0.50** 0.67**
19 0.31** 0.48** 0.50** 0.67** 0.71**
20 0.17* 0.27** 0.68** 0.61** 0.66** 0.59** 0.68**
21 0.38** 0.38** 0.54** 0.47** 0.58** 0.61**
22 0.19**
23 0.24** 0.21** 0.69** 0.63** 0.52** 0.57** 0.49** 0.60** 0.40** 0.26**
25 -0.22** -0.18**
28 -0.25** -0.18** 0.18*
30 -0.29** -0.18*
281

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 Table 7 continued
282

Items* 8 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 25 28

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31 -0.28** 0.22**
* Items: Item 8: blaming the authorities for an eventual disaster
Item 14: tendency to panic in critical situations
Item 16: the feeling that risk affects everyday life
Item 17: health damage
Item 18: damage to psychological balance
Items 15, 19: appreciating damage to household in case of flood
Item 20: family damage
Item 21: probability of lifestyle alteration because of flood
Item 22: alteration of relationship with friends, acquaintances, in case of a disaster
Item 23: fear of the risk of flood
Item 25: personal capacity and preparation in case of flood
Item 28: lack of trust in support
Item 30: to what extent can losses be recovered
Item 31: existence of personal resources in critical situation
** As people declare themselves more religious, there is a slight increase in the tendencies to give a larger responsibility to authorities (r = 0.17, p \ 0.05), to consider the
possibility of floods as a major factor of uneasiness in everyday life (r = 0.19, p \ 0.05), which can affect health (r = 0.19, p \ 0.05), psychological balance (r = 0.16,
p \ 0.05), family safety (r = 0.23, p \ 0.01). These persons also tend to display a negative orientation concerning the expectancy of recovering possible losses (r = -0.19,
p \ 0.05). The religiousness degree correlates negatively with the trust in family support, expectations increase for help from supreme authorities more distantly related such
as the government (r = 0.23, p \ 0.05), or other organizations (r = - 0.25, p \ 0.01)
For items 23 to 31: ** Significant correlations at step p \ 0.001; bilateral, * significant correlations at step p \ 0.05; bilateral
Nat Hazards (2009) 50:269–287
Nat Hazards (2009) 50:269–287 283

condition, which is also projected upon the natural environment. The lack of resources,
implying low resilience, and the lack of faith in support (through the scenario of rela-
tionships deteriorating during critical situations), strengthens unadaptive behaviour. Such
people display a low adaptive behaviour level and are most susceptible to severe post-
disaster traumas, demanding special attention (Freedy et al. 1994; Suar et al. 2002).
If social support and the trust in authorities increase, the perceived or unconscious level
of stress these people experience would drop. Lowering the stress levels would lead to an
emotional balance, reflected in a better general health condition. This is the reason why
local authorities and the image they manage to build for themselves in a community are of
major importance.
In case of a disaster, subjects oriented towards external support are the most vulnerable
segment of the population, characterized by non-action. In the post-disaster stage their
resilience level will be low, while their lack of initiative and orientation for support from
society remain the same. The expected support is larger as the recovery capacity is per-
ceived as smaller and personal resources are few.
The chi-square test shows the subjects who anticipate they would need material support
expect less help from the family, and therefore, economically speaking, it is a modest
segment of the population (Chi-square (4) = 25.17, p \ 0.01), expecting material support
from local authorities (Chi-square (4) = 21.36, p \ 0.01). The largest help expectations
from the government belong to subjects who think they will need most material help (Chi-
square (4) = 11.55, p \ 0.05).

3.4 Regionally differentiated analyses

Personal vulnerability (F1) has been researched regionally on the three sample categories:
the village of Sf. Gheorghe, the Tudor Vladimirescu district and Tulcea city, by applying
the unifactorial ANOVA procedure.
The analysis of unifactorial variance showed a significant difference between the means
of the three samples, representing personal vulnerability perceived in the three areas,
localized differently according to the imminence of flood danger (unifactorial ANOVA,
F(2, 140) = 11.98; p = 0.001). Subjects from the Tudor Vladimirescu district (M = 31.6,
SD = 6) feel the most vulnerable compared to those in Sf. Gheorghe village (M = 26,
SD = 6.4) and locals from the centre of Tulcea (M = 23, SD = 9.2). The Post Hoc Tests
Table displays comparisons between the means of the three groups, taken two by two
(Table 8). It can be noticed that the perceived vulnerability between the subjects inter-
viewed in what we called Tulcea city and Sf. Gheorghe village does not differ significantly
(p = 0.43), while the sample from the Tulcea district called Tudor Vladimirescu stands out
significantly both from the rest of the city (p = 0.002), and compared to Sf Gheorghe
village (p = 0.001).
The application of the unifactorial ANOVA test to emphasize the internal control place
on the three areals also shows significant differences between the means of the three
samples (unifactorial ANOVA, F(2, 140) = 3.54; p = 0.03). The subjects from Tudor
Vladimirescu district (M = 31.6, SD = 2.2) present an internal orientation of control
stronger compared to those in Sf. Gheorghe (M = 11.5, SD = 2.6) and the locals of Tulcea
centre (M = 10.4, SD = 2.5).
The Post Hoc Tests table displays comparisons of the mean for the three groups, taken
two by two (Table 9).
How can the high perception of vulnerability be explained, even though—on average,
the sample of the Tudor Vladimirescu district tends towards an internal place of control?

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Table 8 Post hoc tests—multiple comparisons (perceived vulnerability) dependent variable: F1

(I) 1 tulcea, 2 Sf. Gh., 3 TVladimirescu Diff. between Std. Sig. 95% trust interval
(J) 1 tulcea, 2 Sf. Gh., 3 TVladimirescu means (I–J) error inf.limit…sup. limit

Tamhane Tulcea Sfantu -2.92 2.09 0.438 -8.27 2.42

Tudor -8.38* 2.22 0.002 -13.99 -2.77
Vladimirescu
Sfantu Gheorghe Tulcea 2.92 2.09 0.438 -2.42 8.27
Tudor -5.45* 1.23 0.000 -8.47 -2.44
Vladimirescu
Tudor Vladimirescu Tulcea 8.38* 2.22 0.002 2.77 13.99
Sfantu Gheorghe 5.45* 1.23 0.000 2.44 8.47
* Significance level 0.05

Table 9 Post hoc tests—multiple comparisons (internal control place) Dependant variable: internal control
locus
(I) 1 tulcea, 2 Sf. Gh., 3 Tvladimirescu Mean difference Std. Sig. 95% trust
(J) 1 tulcea, 2 Sf. Gh., 3 TVladimirescu (I–J) error interval inf.
limit…sup.limit

Bonferroni Tulcea Sfantu -1.09 0.613 0.232 -2.57 0.39

Tudor -1.85 (*) 0.699 0.026 -3.55 -0.16
Vladimirescu
Sfantu Gheorghe Tulcea 1.09 0.613 0.232 -0.39 2.57
Tudor -0.76 0.515 0.415 -2.01 0.48
Vladimirescu
Tudor Vladimirescu Tulcea 1.85 (*) 0.699 0.026 0.16 3.55
Sfantu Gheorghe 0.76 0.51 0.415 -0.48 2.01

* Significance level 0.05

Compared to the area where they live, Tudor Vladimirescu (15.4%), Sf. Gheorghe
(60.1%) and Tulcea city (24.5%) respectively, statistics show that the locals from Tudor
Vladimirescu district experience a much stronger fear of such calamities, compared to the
subjects in the other two samples (Chi-square (8) = 49.6, p \ 0.001). This happens
because the recent floods (2006) still haunt people’s memory, and the defence dam was
only erected on small areas, during the investigation. The other side of the Tulcea city does
not present the risk of flooding, while the people in Sf. Gheorghe feel protected by the dam
which surrounds the village. Probably this is also why the locals of Sf Gheorghe, as
opposed to those in Tudor Vladimirescu, do not perceive the authorities to be responsible
for the disasters following eventual floods (Chi-square (8) = 49, p \ 0.001).
The subjects interviewed in the Tudor Vladimirescu district live with the fear of an
imminent destruction of their households should a flood happen (Chi-square (8) = 50.2,
p \ 0.001), of damage to personal health (Chi-square (8) = 15.8, p \ 0.04) and to family
security (Chi-square (8) = 22.2, p \ 0,004), aspects which affect their daily life in a
higher proportion than in the case of other settlements considered for investigation (Chi-
square (8) = 34.4, p \ 0.001).
Maintaining an organization of a traditional type in the village of Sf. Gheorghe and
Tudor Vladimirescu offers a larger stability for the locals through their faith in family

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support, this kind of support being less expected in urban areas (Chi-square (26) = 90.8,
p \ 0.001). The support expected from friends (socially extended group) is also large in
the village of Sf. Gheorghe and the district of Tudor Vladimirescu, and lower in urban
areas (Chi-square (20) = 56.8, p \ 0.001). Subjects with less hope of recovering the losses
are those from Sf. Gheorghe (76% of those who answered they will recover a very small
extent of their losses).
In the context of subjecting these persons to an extreme scenario: the loss of their entire
fortune as a consequence of a flood, the chi-square test shows a significant differentiation
among the answer types for the three samples (Chi-square (6) = 17.1, p \ 0.009). The
lowest share of fatalistic answers (1,4%) appears in the Tudor Vladimirescu district.

3.5 Analysis of cognitive dissonance

In order to identify the cognitive dissonance (sensu Festinger 1957), we applied an analysis
of the factor of personal vulnerability, to separate the manner of the grouping of values into
classes. After the analysis of additive numerical indicators, the following categories of
personal vulnerability have been established: low (17%), medium (53%) and high (30%).
For analysing cognitive dissonance the selected sample was the one characterized by
high personal vulnerability, because of the high level of anxiety, which required the search
for tension-reducing mechanisms. The analysis of frequency has presented, for all the
items, average values in the sphere of answers ranging from ‘‘medium extent’’ to ‘‘large’’,
as opposed to the group of subjects with low personal vulnerability, where all the means
had small values (‘‘small extent’’ to ‘‘medium extent’’). Regarding the place of control, in
the vulnerable sample the main orientation is towards an external place of control. The
internal place of control has equal shares on the small and medium categories (around
50%), while for the group with low vulnerability, the internal place of control is present at
a proportion of 50% in the medium category and 20% in the large one.
In the case of the sample tested, the way to diminish negative tension created by
cognitive dissonance is to reduce dissonant cognition through projecting the perturbing
event into the future as far as possible. The possibility of a flood is appreciated, with a
share of over 60%, to take place in ‘‘only a few years’’. However, in the case in which
subjects are put in front of a catastrophic scenario, the dissonance is reduced through
consonant conditions, which fit the category of optimistic response (60%).
This method for reducing dissonance matches the explicative model of avoiding dis-
sonance developed by Festinger (1957). In the tested conditions, subjects cannot avoid
dissonance, diminishing its importance (projecting the flood into a far future). The method
of reduction meets a strong resistance to change from the cognitions’ part, especially since
they refer to the physical environment. The possibility to modify them will ultimately
depend on the resistance of the weakest dissonant cognition. When resistance is too
important, such as in this situation where it is supported by the pressure of physical
environment, the decrease of dissonance will be made by adding new, consonant
cognitions.

4 Conclusions

Following the analyses, the result is the imprinting on the human cognitive level of the
instability characteristic to natural environment, to the extent to which the dangerous event
is perceived to affect the narrow individual space (health, family, household). An essential

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aspect in relating to the risk event is the degree of control perceived. This varies depending
on objective aspects such as the level of resilience given by the amount of available
resources and expected support, or psychological factors represented—mainly—by the
place of control.
The application of the inferential statistics tests showed the fact that subjects who rely
on personal forces to overcome critical situations (internal place of control) have a lower
general vulnerability level and the tendency not to invest too much energy in negative
scenarios, which they project into a far-off future. At the same time, their general level of
anxiety is significantly smaller than the anxiety of those with a stronger orientation towards
an external place of control. Persons with a higher degree of internal control, faced with a
negative scenario such as the loss of their entire fortune due to flooding, gave the lowest
number of fatalistic answers and constantly oriented themselves not to ask for support,
mentioning that they were trying to recover through their own forces by starting all over
again, in the same place. These subjects have a lower level of expecting post-disaster
support, being the most active and having the greatest initiative during critical events. The
individual’s orientation towards the exterior increases when self confidence drops,
expecting support and security. When these needs are not fulfilled at a narrow social level
(family) or extended level (friends, aquaintances, state institutions), fear becomes a con-
stant condition, which is also projected upon the natural environment. The lack of
resources, implying low resilience, and the lack of faith in support (through the scenario of
relationships deteriorating during critical situations), strengthens unadaptive behaviour.
In the event of a disaster, the subjects with an acute internal control place display
adaptive behaviour and a high level of resilience. By correlation with socio-demographical
variables, these subjects turn out to be mostly males, professionally active and better paid,
also as a consequence of having a better educational level. These characteristics become
stronger in the case of the poor populations which have been investigated, drawing
attention towards discrepancies still existing between the two sexes, in the present
Romanian society.

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