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Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) : Forecast Highlights
Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) : Forecast Highlights
• North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $69 per barrel (b) in January, an increase
of $5/b from the December level. Monthly average Brent prices have increased for
seven consecutive months, and, on January 11, spot prices moved higher than $70/b for
the first time since December 2014. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average about
$62/b in both 2018 and 2019 compared with an average of $54/b in 2017.
• EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices to average $4/b lower than
Brent prices in both 2018 and 2019. NYMEX WTI contract values for May 2018 delivery
traded during the five-day period ending February 1, 2018, suggest a range of $55/b to
$77/b encompasses the market expectation for May 2018 WTI prices at the 95%
confidence level.
• EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.2 million barrels per day (b/d)
in January, up 100,000 b/d from the December level. EIA estimates that total U.S. crude
oil production averaged 9.3 million b/d in 2017 and will average 10.6 million b/d in
2018, which would mark the highest annual average U.S. crude oil production level,
surpassing the previous record of 9.6 million b/d set in 1970. EIA forecasts that 2019
crude oil production will average 11.2 million b/d.
• EIA estimates that global petroleum and other liquid fuels inventories declined by 0.5
million b/d in 2017. In this forecast, global inventories grow by about 0.2 million b/d in
both 2018 and 2019.
Natural gas
• EIA estimates that U.S. dry natural gas production averaged 73.6 billion cubic feet per
day (Bcf/d) in 2017. EIA forecasts that natural gas production will reach 80.3 Bcf/d in
2018, establishing a new record. That level would be 6.7 Bcf/d higher than the 2017
level, and the forecast 2017 growth would be the highest annual average growth on
record. EIA expects natural gas production will also increase in 2019, with forecast
growth of 2.6 Bcf/d.
• In January, the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $3.88 per
million British thermal units (MMBtu), up $1.06/MMBtu from December. Cold
• EIA expects natural gas prices to moderate in the coming months, based on a forecast of
record growth in natural gas production. EIA expects Henry Hub spot prices to average
$3.34/MMBtu in February and $3.20/MMBtu for all of 2018. In 2019, EIA forecasts
prices will average $3.08/MMBtu. NYMEX contract values for May 2018 delivery that
traded during the five-day period ending February 1, 2018, suggest that a range of
$2.26/MMBtu to $3.67/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation for May Henry
Hub natural gas prices at the 95% confidence level.
• EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas-
fired power plants to rise from 32% in 2017 to 33% in 2018 and to 34% in 2019. The
forecast generation share from coal in 2018 averages 30%, about the same as in 2017,
but then falls to 29% in 2019. The nuclear share of generation was 20% in 2017 and is
forecast to average 20% in 2018 and 19% in 2019. Nonhydropower renewables provided
slightly less than 10% of electricity generation in 2017 and is expected to provide about
10% in both 2018 and 2019. The generation share of hydropower was almost 8% in 2017
and is forecast to be about 7% in both 2018 and 2019.
• EIA estimates U.S. coal production was 772 million short tons (MMst) in 2017, 44 MMst
(6%) higher than in 2016. Forecast coal production declines by 2% to 760 MMst in 2018
and then increases slightly to 762 MMst in 2019. Lower expected global demand for U.S.
coal exports (down 16% in 2018 and another 4% in 2019) and lower forecasts of coal use
in the electric power sector (1% lower in 2018 and another 2% lower in 2019) contribute
to the forecast of lower coal production.
• EIA projects that total solar electricity generation will increase from an estimated
average of 209,000 MWh/d in 2017 to 240,000 MWh/d in 2018 and to 287,000 MWh/d
in 2019.
• After declining by 0.8% in 2017, energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are
projected to increase by 1.8% in 2018 and by 0.4% in 2019. Energy-related CO2
emissions are sensitive to changes in weather, economic growth, and energy prices.
Brent crude oil futures prices closed above $70/b in mid-January for the first time since
December 2014. Prices have increased over the past seven months as oil inventories, both in the
United States and globally, have fallen steadily. In January, oil prices may have received some
support following the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) monitoring
committee meeting, where some oil ministers suggested extending the production cut
agreement in some form beyond the current expiration at the end of 2018. Rapid declines in
Venezuelan crude oil output are also likely contributing to higher crude oil prices (Figure 2).
Average U.S. imports of crude oil from Venezuela declined to 0.4 million b/d for the four weeks
ending January 26, approaching the lowest level in decades. Trade press reports indicate that
workers at the national oil company may be fleeing the country amid social unrest.
Crude oil inventories in the United States declined by 6 million barrels during the first four
weeks of 2018 in contrast to a five-year average build of 14 million barrels during those four
weeks. High levels of refinery inputs of crude oil and crude oil exports contributed to the
counter-seasonal draw in crude oil inventories. A cold snap in the U.S. Northeast in early January
increased demand for home heating oil and likely contributed to higher refinery utilization than
is typical for this time of year. Inputs of crude oil at U.S. refineries averaged 16.7 million b/d for
the four weeks ending January 26, which, if confirmed in the Petroleum Supply Monthly, would
be the highest level of refinery runs on record for the month of January. Also, U.S. crude oil
exports averaged almost 1.4 million b/d for the four weeks ending January 26. In January 2017,
U.S. crude oil exports averaged about 0.7 million b/d.
Similar to the draw in U.S. inventories, Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD) oil inventories also declined. EIA estimated OECD total petroleum
inventories at 2.87 billion barrels; this was a decline of 183 million barrels from January 2017,
the largest year-over-year decline since March 2003. However, a continued acceleration in non-
OPEC supply growth is expected to contribute to global total petroleum and other liquids
inventories rising by 0.2 million b/d in 2018. This expected modest increase in global oil
The increase in crude oil prices in recent months has been mitigated for some countries whose
currency exchange rate with the U.S. dollar has appreciated. Even though Brent crude oil prices
increased by 40% from July 3, 2017, through February 1, 2018, in U.S. dollar terms, crude oil
prices in Indian rupees, Thai baht, and euros have only increased by 38%, 29%, and 27%,
respectively, during the same period (Figure 3). Rising economic growth in several European
countries, as well as in non-OECD countries, has likely contributed to larger demand for their
goods and services, which is reflected in currency appreciation compared with the U.S. dollar.
For countries that import crude oil, a stronger currency can lessen the effect higher crude oil
prices have on businesses and households.
Even though crude oil prices reached the highest levels in more than three years, implied
volatility for crude oil options approached the lowest levels in more than three years in January.
Brent front-month implied volatility decreased 0.5 percentage points since the beginning of
January to settle at 18.2% on February 1 (Figure 4), and monthly average implied volatility for
January was the lowest since September 2014. Higher oil prices and lower implied volatility
often occur in times of improving economic conditions.
In contrast to LLS, WTI Cushing and WTI Midland crude oil prices increased relative to Brent in
recent weeks. On February 1, the WTI Cushing and WTI Midland spreads with Brent settled at -
$4.02/b and -$3.82/b, respectively, increases of $2.30/b and $1.70/b, respectively, since January
2. The Diamond pipeline startup and a likely reduction in Canadian crude oil deliveries to
Cushing have contributed to a stock draw at the hub of 12 million barrels since the last week of
December and likely increased WTI Cushing prices. Cold winter weather in west Texas led to
some production shut-ins, increasing the WTI Midland-Brent crude oil price spread.
In January, RBOB prices rose to the highest level since late August because of relatively tight
supply conditions for the month of January in conjunction with higher crude oil prices. For the
four weeks ending January 26, 2018, the days of supply of U.S. gasoline inventories (when
including both U.S. gasoline product supplied and finished motor gasoline exports) fell to 25.2
days, which is below the five-year range for the month of January.
Distillate prices rose as colder-than-normal temperatures affected much of the United States in
the first half of January. Temperatures are also expected to be colder than normal at the
beginning of February, which may be lending additional support to ULSD prices. In addition to
temporary weather-related price support, EIA has revised annual U.S. distillate consumption
higher in 2018 and 2019 by 26,000 b/d and 45,000 b/d, respectively, compared with the January
2018 STEO. EIA now expects distillate fuel consumption to increase by 2.7% in 2018, which
would be the highest growth rate since 2014. The higher distillate consumption forecast reflects
updated U.S. economic growth assumptions in this STEO in response to the U.S. tax reform bill
passed in December 2017 and its potential impact on industrial and manufacturing activity.
PADD 1B distillate inventories for the week ending January 26 were 3% below the five-year
average level. However, they were 27% higher than during the same week in 2015. Trade press
indicates that the premium between U.S. and European ULSD prices during January reached a
level high enough that some European distillate cargoes were booked for export to the U.S. East
Coast, which sometimes occurs during this time of year in the event of very cold weather.
Cold weather appears to have driven estimated U.S. natural gas demand to a record high of
150.7 billion cubic feet on January 1, surpassing the previous single-day record set in 2014.
Heating degree days (HDD) were 32% above normal for the week ending January 4. Because of
cold weather east of the Rockies, inventories fell relative to the five-year average in all regions
except the Pacific region during the first four weeks of January. January saw the two largest
withdrawals on record: 359 Bcf for the week ending January 5 and 288 Bcf for the week ending
January 19. The cold weather had a significant effect on the South Central region, where the
Henry Hub national benchmark is located. Withdrawals in that region comprised between 42%
and 43% of total U.S. withdrawals in both of the record-breaking weeks because of increased
natural gas-fired electricity generation for heating.
The large inventory draws in January put upward pressure mainly on the near months of the
natural gas futures curve. The difference between the prices of the front-month natural gas
• report
This For more
was information, see U.S.
prepared by the the detailed STEO table of
Energy Information forecast changes.
Administration (EIA), the statistical
and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and
forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States
Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing
those of the U.S. Department of Energy or other federal agencies.
r-
rt-Term
Short Energy Outlook
60
40
20
0
Jan 2017 Jul 2017 Jan 2018 Jul 2018 Jan 2019 Jul 2019
Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending Feb 1,
2018. Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in near-the-money options contracts.
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2018, and CME Group.
2.5
Saudi Arabia
2.0 Kuwait
Iraq
1.5 Nigeria
Libya
1.0
Iran
0.5
0.0
Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018
1.0 Mexico
Canada
0.8 Sudan / S. Sudan
Colombia
0.6
Brazil
0.4 Norway
United Kingdom
0.2 Yemen
China
0.0
Syria
Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
2017 2018 2019
OECD* Non-OECD Asia Former Soviet Union Other
* Countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2018.
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
2017 2018 2019
OPEC countries North America Russia and Caspian Sea
Latin America Other Non-OPEC
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2018.
Non-OPEC crude oil and liquid fuels production growth
million barrels per day
4.0
3.5 2019
3.0 2018
2.5 2017
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
United States
Russia
Oman
Canada
Azerbaijan
Brazil
Norway
Syria
India
South Sudan
Egypt
Colombia
Mexico
United Kingdom
Australia
Kazakhstan
Malaysia
Vietnam
China
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2018.
0 0
-2 -20
-4 -40
-6 -60
2015-Q1 2016-Q1 2017-Q1 2018-Q1 2019-Q1
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Note: Shaded area represents 2007-2017 average (2.3 million barrels per day).
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2018.
OECD commercial stocks of crude oil and
other liquids
days of supply
80
Forecast
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019
Note: Colored band around days of supply of crude oil and other liquids stocks represents the range
between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2013 - Dec. 2017.
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2018.
10,000 Coal
33.2% 30.4% 30.2% 29.7% 28.8% Natural gas
44.8% 42.3% 37.4% 38.9% 38.6%
8,000 Petroleum
Nuclear
6,000 33.8% 31.7% 33.0% 33.9% Hydropower
32.7%
23.9% 24.7% 30.3% 27.7% 27.5% Non-hydro
4,000 renewables
Other sources
2,000
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Note: Labels show percentage share of total generation provided by coal and natural gas.
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Note: Hydropower excludes pumped storage generation. Liquid biofuels include ethanol and biodiesel. Other
biomass includes municipal waste from biogenic sources, landfill gas, and other non-wood waste.
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2018.
U.S. annual energy expenditures
share of gross domestic product
Forecast
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
0%
-3%
-6%
-9%
-12%
-15%
2016 2017 2018 2019
Total energy Coal Petroleum Natural gas
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2018.
Coal Production
(million short tons) ................................ 197 187 196 192 187 172 205 198 195 166 206 195 772 760 762
Energy Consumption
Liquid Fuels
(million barrels per day) ......................... 19.49 20.03 19.92 20.06 19.95 20.19 20.70 20.47 20.28 20.63 21.02 20.78 19.88 20.33 20.68
Natural Gas
(billion cubic feet per day) ..................... 86.64 63.05 67.53 80.10 94.60 66.79 67.92 80.70 95.17 68.66 70.40 74.29 77.44 79.20
Coal (b)
(million short tons) ................................ 173 167 203 176 174 161 203 175 176 156 198 168 720 714 698
Electricity
(billion kilowatt hours per day) ............... 10.11 10.05 11.64 10.05 10.64 10.17 11.75 10.06 10.60 10.23 11.84 10.13 10.46 10.66 10.70
Renewables (c)
(quadrillion Btu) .................................... 2.76 2.96 2.54 2.65 2.65 2.86 2.64 2.66 2.71 2.96 2.74 2.77 10.91 10.81 11.18
Energy Prices
Coal
(dollars per million Btu) ......................... 2.08 2.12 2.07 2.10 2.21 2.21 2.22 2.20 2.22 2.20 2.22 2.19 2.09 2.21 2.21
Macroeconomic
Weather
U.S. Heating Degree-Days .................... 1,859 428 65 1,468 2,138 493 79 1,529 2,113 494 79 1,527 3,820 4,239 4,213
U.S. Cooling Degree-Days .................... 70 401 837 114 39 397 835 91 43 396 836 91 1,422 1,362 1,366
- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Includes lease condensate.
(b) Total consumption includes Independent Power Producer (IPP) consumption.
(c) Renewable energy includes minor components of non-marketed renewable energy that is neither bought nor sold, either directly or indirectly, as inputs to marketed energy.
EIA does not estimate or project end-use consumption of non-marketed renewable energy.
(d) The conversion from physical units to Btu is calculated using a subset of conversion factors used in the calculations of gross energy consumption in EIA’s Monthly Energy Review
Consequently, the historical data may not precisely match those published in the MER or the Annual Energy Review (AER).
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208; Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380; Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130;
Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; Quarterly Coal Report , DOE/EIA-0121; and International Petroleum Monthly , DOE/EIA-0520.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model. U.S. macroeconomic projections are based on the IHS Markit model of the U.S. Economy.
Weather projections from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Table 2. Energy Prices
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2018
2017 2018 2019 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017 2018 2019
Crude Oil (dollars per barrel)
West Texas Intermediate Spot Average .............................. 51.64 48.15 48.16 55.27 62.88 58.33 56.00 56.00 56.00 56.66 58.00 59.33 50.79 58.28 57.51
Brent Spot Average ............................................................. 53.57 49.59 52.09 61.42 67.35 62.33 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.66 62.00 63.33 54.15 62.39 61.51
U.S. Imported Average ........................................................ 47.94 46.12 47.49 53.15 59.40 54.84 52.50 52.50 52.50 53.17 54.50 55.84 48.53 54.95 53.97
U.S. Refiner Average Acquisition Cost ............................... 49.91 47.66 48.32 55.17 61.90 57.31 55.00 55.00 55.00 55.68 57.00 58.35 50.27 57.25 56.51
U.S. Liquid Fuels (cents per gallon)
Refiner Prices for Resale
Gasoline ........................................................................... 163 165 172 176 190 194 185 171 170 188 187 176 169 185 181
Diesel Fuel ....................................................................... 162 155 169 191 209 195 191 191 187 190 196 198 169 196 193
Heating Oil ....................................................................... 154 144 154 179 205 185 182 183 184 179 187 190 160 192 185
Refiner Prices to End Users
Jet Fuel ............................................................................ 158 150 162 185 205 188 185 185 185 185 192 195 164 191 189
No. 6 Residual Fuel Oil (a) ............................................... 128 120 124 138 151 142 137 136 137 136 140 143 128 142 139
Retail Prices Including Taxes
Gasoline Regular Grade (b) ............................................. 233 238 244 251 262 272 264 250 244 266 266 254 242 262 258
Gasoline All Grades (b) .................................................... 244 250 255 263 273 283 275 261 256 277 278 267 253 273 270
On-highway Diesel Fuel ................................................... 257 255 263 287 300 290 286 287 281 283 289 294 265 291 287
Heating Oil ....................................................................... 247 238 234 272 300 280 273 279 284 271 275 285 253 288 281
Natural Gas
Henry Hub Spot (dollars per thousand cubic feet) .............. 3.12 3.19 3.06 3.01 3.61 3.18 3.20 3.26 3.36 3.11 3.13 3.19 3.10 3.31 3.19
Henry Hub Spot (dollars per million Btu) ............................ 3.01 3.08 2.95 2.90 3.48 3.07 3.09 3.15 3.24 3.00 3.02 3.07 2.99 3.20 3.08
U.S. Retail Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)
Industrial Sector ............................................................... 4.50 4.12 3.89 4.05 4.82 4.13 4.10 4.42 4.73 4.05 4.05 4.35 4.15 4.39 4.31
Commercial Sector .......................................................... 7.71 8.32 8.68 7.65 7.78 8.32 8.72 8.00 7.90 8.37 8.70 7.94 7.90 8.04 8.08
Residential Sector ............................................................ 9.73 13.00 17.74 10.32 9.56 12.32 16.66 10.73 9.90 12.41 16.75 10.70 10.97 10.78 10.96
U.S. Electricity
Power Generation Fuel Costs (dollars per million Btu)
Coal .................................................................................. 2.08 2.12 2.07 2.10 2.21 2.21 2.22 2.20 2.22 2.20 2.22 2.19 2.09 2.21 2.21
Natural Gas ..................................................................... 3.68 3.38 3.19 3.21 4.10 3.37 3.41 3.65 3.85 3.24 3.28 3.51 3.34 3.61 3.45
Residual Fuel Oil (c) ......................................................... 11.16 10.60 10.03 11.07 12.42 12.86 11.66 11.27 11.51 12.16 11.70 11.66 10.69 12.11 11.73
Distillate Fuel Oil .............................................................. 12.74 12.23 13.13 14.84 16.25 15.23 14.86 14.90 14.67 14.80 15.15 15.45 13.27 15.48 15.00
Retail Prices (cents per kilowatthour)
Industrial Sector ............................................................... 6.64 6.88 7.26 6.86 6.90 7.08 7.52 7.08 6.92 7.14 7.60 7.15 6.92 7.15 7.21
Commercial Sector .......................................................... 10.39 10.68 11.03 10.57 10.56 10.94 11.40 10.94 10.80 11.00 11.35 10.96 10.68 10.98 11.04
Residential Sector ............................................................ 12.60 13.00 13.20 12.75 12.73 13.35 13.58 13.22 13.27 13.79 13.91 13.46 12.90 13.23 13.62
- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Average for all sulfur contents.
(b) Average self-service cash price.
(c) Includes fuel oils No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, and topped crude.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Prices exclude taxes unless otherwise noted.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380;
Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208; Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Monthly Energy Review , DOE/EIA-0035.
WTI and Brent crude oils, and Henry Hub natural gas spot prices from Reuter's News Service (http://www.reuters.com).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 3a. International Petroleum and Other Liquids Production, Consumption, and Inventories
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2018
2017 2018 2019 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017 2018 2019
Supply (million barrels per day) (a)
OECD ................................................. 27.12 26.92 27.09 27.98 28.71 29.31 29.70 30.48 30.50 30.76 30.63 31.05 27.28 29.55 30.74
U.S. (50 States) .............................. 15.00 15.32 15.48 16.47 16.61 17.11 17.58 18.03 18.04 18.38 18.31 18.50 15.57 17.34 18.31
Canada ........................................... 5.05 4.71 5.00 4.87 5.00 5.18 5.29 5.39 5.40 5.40 5.44 5.48 4.91 5.22 5.43
Mexico ............................................. 2.36 2.34 2.19 2.16 2.21 2.20 2.19 2.18 2.17 2.16 2.15 2.14 2.26 2.20 2.15
Other OECD ................................... 4.70 4.55 4.42 4.48 4.88 4.81 4.65 4.88 4.89 4.83 4.73 4.93 4.54 4.81 4.84
Non-OECD ......................................... 70.02 70.78 71.30 70.69 70.24 70.79 71.34 71.11 70.69 71.30 71.97 71.75 70.70 70.87 71.43
OPEC .............................................. 38.84 39.32 39.68 39.31 39.16 39.24 39.55 39.61 39.53 39.71 40.05 40.16 39.29 39.39 39.86
Crude Oil Portion ......................... 32.08 32.32 32.89 32.50 32.26 32.29 32.57 32.59 32.47 32.59 32.86 32.89 32.45 32.43 32.70
Other Liquids (b) .......................... 6.77 7.00 6.79 6.81 6.90 6.94 6.98 7.02 7.05 7.12 7.19 7.27 6.84 6.96 7.16
Eurasia ............................................ 14.43 14.31 14.23 14.33 14.46 14.44 14.37 14.41 14.48 14.43 14.49 14.49 14.33 14.42 14.47
China ............................................... 4.82 4.82 4.73 4.75 4.72 4.75 4.75 4.79 4.72 4.74 4.74 4.78 4.78 4.75 4.74
Other Non-OECD ........................... 11.93 12.34 12.65 12.30 11.91 12.37 12.67 12.30 11.96 12.42 12.70 12.32 12.31 12.31 12.35
Total World Supply ............................ 97.14 97.70 98.39 98.68 98.95 100.09 101.03 101.59 101.19 102.06 102.60 102.80 97.98 100.43 102.17
Non-OPEC Supply ............................. 58.29 58.38 58.71 59.37 59.79 60.86 61.48 61.98 61.67 62.35 62.55 62.64 58.69 61.04 62.31
Total Crude Oil and Other Liquids Inventory Net Withdrawals (million barrels per day)
U.S. (50 States) ................................. 0.00 0.22 0.34 0.94 -0.02 -0.48 -0.11 0.42 -0.25 -0.50 -0.08 0.33 0.38 -0.05 -0.12
Other OECD ...................................... -0.49 0.04 0.25 0.13 0.19 -0.02 -0.04 -0.32 0.05 -0.09 -0.01 -0.08 -0.01 -0.05 -0.03
Other Stock Draws and Balance ....... 0.88 0.39 -0.01 -0.60 0.36 -0.05 -0.09 -0.62 0.10 -0.18 -0.02 -0.17 0.16 -0.10 -0.07
Total Stock Draw ............................ 0.40 0.65 0.57 0.47 0.53 -0.56 -0.24 -0.52 -0.10 -0.78 -0.10 0.08 0.52 -0.20 -0.22
- = no data available
OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal,
Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States.
OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.
(a) Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.
(b) Includes lease condensate, natural gas plant liquids, other liquids, and refinery processing gain. Includes other unaccounted-for liquids.
(c) Consumption of petroleum by the OECD countries is synonymous with "petroleum product supplied," defined in the glossary of the EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109.
Consumption of petroleum by the non-OECD countries is "apparent consumption," which includes internal consumption, refinery fuel and loss, and bunkering.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 3b. Non-OPEC Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply (million barrels per day)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2018
2017 2018 2019 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017 2018 2019
North America ........................................................... 22.41 22.37 22.67 23.50 23.83 24.49 25.05 25.60 25.62 25.93 25.90 26.12 22.74 24.75 25.90
Canada ........................................................................ 5.05 4.71 5.00 4.87 5.00 5.18 5.29 5.39 5.40 5.40 5.44 5.48 4.91 5.22 5.43
Mexico .......................................................................... 2.36 2.34 2.19 2.16 2.21 2.20 2.19 2.18 2.17 2.16 2.15 2.14 2.26 2.20 2.15
United States ............................................................... 15.00 15.32 15.48 16.47 16.61 17.11 17.58 18.03 18.04 18.38 18.31 18.50 15.57 17.34 18.31
Central and South America .................................... 4.91 5.40 5.76 5.38 5.01 5.50 5.83 5.50 5.12 5.63 5.96 5.63 5.37 5.46 5.59
Argentina ...................................................................... 0.67 0.67 0.69 0.69 0.66 0.66 0.67 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.67 0.66
Brazil ............................................................................ 2.95 3.44 3.76 3.40 3.07 3.55 3.86 3.53 3.18 3.68 3.99 3.66 3.39 3.50 3.63
Colombia ...................................................................... 0.87 0.88 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.88 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.87 0.87 0.86 0.88 0.87 0.86
Other Central and S. America ..................................... 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.43 0.43 0.42 0.43 0.43 0.42 0.42 0.43
Europe ........................................................................ 4.22 4.05 3.91 3.96 4.35 4.28 4.09 4.31 4.30 4.22 4.10 4.29 4.04 4.26 4.23
Norway ......................................................................... 2.09 2.01 1.90 1.93 2.14 2.06 2.03 2.11 2.10 2.03 2.02 2.09 1.98 2.08 2.06
United Kingdom ........................................................... 1.10 1.07 1.00 1.02 1.20 1.22 1.07 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.10 1.20 1.05 1.17 1.17
Eurasia ........................................................................ 14.43 14.31 14.23 14.33 14.46 14.44 14.37 14.41 14.48 14.43 14.49 14.49 14.33 14.42 14.47
Azerbaijan .................................................................... 0.79 0.80 0.79 0.81 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.79 0.79 0.77 0.76 0.80 0.79 0.78
Kazakhstan .................................................................. 1.87 1.87 1.86 1.93 2.01 2.01 2.02 2.08 2.11 2.04 2.09 2.14 1.88 2.03 2.10
Russia .......................................................................... 11.32 11.18 11.14 11.13 11.18 11.17 11.10 11.10 11.14 11.16 11.18 11.15 11.19 11.14 11.16
Turkmenistan ............................................................... 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.28
Other Eurasia ............................................................... 0.16 0.17 0.16 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17
Middle East ................................................................ 1.07 1.07 1.07 1.11 1.11 1.09 1.07 1.05 1.05 1.03 1.02 1.00 1.08 1.08 1.03
Oman ........................................................................... 0.98 0.98 0.98 1.01 0.99 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.90 0.88 0.87 0.99 0.96 0.89
Asia and Oceania ..................................................... 9.35 9.29 9.19 9.24 9.25 9.27 9.29 9.33 9.30 9.30 9.29 9.30 9.27 9.29 9.30
Australia ....................................................................... 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.41 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.36 0.37 0.43
China ............................................................................ 4.82 4.82 4.73 4.75 4.72 4.75 4.75 4.79 4.72 4.74 4.74 4.78 4.78 4.75 4.74
India .............................................................................. 1.01 1.00 1.00 0.98 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 1.01 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Indonesia ...................................................................... 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.91 0.91 0.89
Malaysia ....................................................................... 0.74 0.72 0.71 0.73 0.74 0.73 0.73 0.72 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.72 0.73 0.70
Vietnam ........................................................................ 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.28 0.27 0.25
Africa .......................................................................... 1.89 1.89 1.87 1.83 1.78 1.78 1.78 1.78 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.87 1.78 1.80
Egypt ............................................................................ 0.68 0.68 0.67 0.63 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.67 0.59 0.56
South Sudan ................................................................ 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.15 0.12 0.12
Total non-OPEC liquids ............................................. 58.29 58.38 58.71 59.37 59.79 60.86 61.48 61.98 61.67 62.35 62.55 62.64 58.69 61.04 62.31
OPEC non-crude liquids ......................................... 6.77 7.00 6.79 6.81 6.90 6.94 6.98 7.02 7.05 7.12 7.19 7.27 6.84 6.96 7.16
Non-OPEC + OPEC non-crude ............................... 65.06 65.38 65.49 66.18 66.69 67.80 68.47 69.00 68.72 69.47 69.74 69.91 65.53 68.00 69.46
Unplanned non-OPEC Production Outages ........... 0.43 0.68 0.63 0.54 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.57 n/a n/a
- = no data available
OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.
Not all countries are shown in each region and sum of reported country volumes may not equal regional volumes.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 3c. OPEC Crude Oil (excluding condensates) Supply (million barrels per day)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2018
2017 2018 2019 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017 2018 2019
Crude Oil
Algeria .............................................................. 1.04 1.03 1.03 1.00 - - - - - - - - 1.03 - -
Angola .............................................................. 1.64 1.66 1.66 1.63 - - - - - - - - 1.65 - -
Ecudaor ........................................................... 0.53 0.53 0.54 0.54 - - - - - - - - 0.54 - -
Equatorial Guinea ............................................ 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.13 - - - - - - - - 0.13 - -
Gabon .............................................................. 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.20 - - - - - - - - 0.20 - -
Iran ................................................................... 3.80 3.81 3.83 3.84 - - - - - - - - 3.82 - -
Iraq ................................................................... 4.46 4.44 4.50 4.36 - - - - - - - - 4.44 - -
Kuwait .............................................................. 2.74 2.71 2.72 2.72 - - - - - - - - 2.72 - -
Libya ................................................................ 0.65 0.72 0.94 0.96 - - - - - - - - 0.82 - -
Nigeria ............................................................. 1.38 1.49 1.68 1.72 - - - - - - - - 1.57 - -
Qatar ................................................................ 0.62 0.61 0.61 0.60 - - - - - - - - 0.61 - -
Saudi Arabia .................................................... 9.98 10.09 10.18 10.11 - - - - - - - - 10.09 - -
United Arab Emirates ...................................... 2.92 2.90 2.92 2.90 - - - - - - - - 2.91 - -
Venezuela ........................................................ 1.99 1.97 1.95 1.79 - - - - - - - - 1.93 - -
OPEC Total .................................................. 32.08 32.32 32.89 32.50 32.26 32.29 32.57 32.59 32.47 32.59 32.86 32.89 32.45 32.43 32.70
Other Liquids (a) ............................................... 6.77 7.00 6.79 6.81 6.90 6.94 6.98 7.02 7.05 7.12 7.19 7.27 6.84 6.96 7.16
Total OPEC Supply ........................................... 38.84 39.32 39.68 39.31 39.16 39.24 39.55 39.61 39.53 39.71 40.05 40.16 39.29 39.39 39.86
Unplanned OPEC Production Outages .......... 1.81 1.60 1.17 1.21 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 1.45 n/a n/a
- = no data available
OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, and Nigeria (Africa); Ecuador and Venezuela (South America); Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi
Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (Middle East).
(a) Includes lease condensate, natural gas plant liquids, other liquids, and refinery processing gain. Includes other unaccounted-for liquids.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 3d. World Petroleum and Other Liquids Consumption (million barrels per day)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2018
2017 2018 2019
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017 2018 2019
North America ........................................................... 23.81 24.36 24.33 24.49 24.27 24.48 25.07 24.83 24.59 24.89 25.37 25.12 24.25 24.66 24.99
Canada ........................................................................ 2.35 2.34 2.50 2.46 2.37 2.31 2.42 2.41 2.37 2.31 2.42 2.41 2.41 2.38 2.38
Mexico ......................................................................... 1.96 1.98 1.90 1.96 1.94 1.96 1.93 1.94 1.92 1.94 1.91 1.92 1.95 1.94 1.92
United States ............................................................... 19.49 20.03 19.92 20.06 19.95 20.19 20.70 20.47 20.28 20.63 21.02 20.78 19.88 20.33 20.68
Central and South America ................................... 6.98 7.03 7.11 7.05 6.86 7.02 7.15 7.18 7.02 7.19 7.32 7.35 7.04 7.05 7.22
Brazil ........................................................................... 3.02 3.01 3.09 3.12 3.00 3.07 3.16 3.21 3.11 3.19 3.30 3.35 3.06 3.11 3.24
Europe ...................................................................... 14.64 15.03 15.47 14.96 14.92 14.98 15.41 15.15 14.99 14.97 15.45 15.26 15.02 15.12 15.17
Eurasia ...................................................................... 4.76 4.75 5.02 4.89 4.80 4.84 5.11 4.99 4.85 4.90 5.17 5.05 4.86 4.94 4.99
Russia ......................................................................... 3.61 3.62 3.82 3.69 3.61 3.68 3.89 3.76 3.66 3.73 3.94 3.81 3.68 3.73 3.78
Middle East .............................................................. 8.19 8.73 9.14 8.56 8.33 8.88 9.30 8.71 8.48 9.05 9.48 8.89 8.66 8.81 8.97
Asia and Oceania ................................................... 34.83 34.15 33.67 34.86 35.83 34.88 34.38 35.73 36.54 35.67 35.19 36.59 34.37 35.20 36.00
China ........................................................................... 13.48 13.27 12.95 13.34 13.84 13.64 13.34 13.82 14.14 14.01 13.75 14.26 13.26 13.66 14.04
Japan .......................................................................... 4.33 3.64 3.69 4.05 4.24 3.47 3.58 3.96 4.19 3.42 3.53 3.91 3.92 3.81 3.76
India ............................................................................. 4.40 4.64 4.42 4.75 4.85 4.93 4.63 4.92 5.12 5.20 4.87 5.18 4.55 4.83 5.09
Africa ........................................................................ 4.31 4.30 4.22 4.32 4.46 4.44 4.36 4.47 4.61 4.59 4.50 4.62 4.29 4.43 4.58
Total OECD Liquid Fuels Consumption ................. 46.78 46.91 47.44 47.49 47.47 46.82 48.01 48.06 47.91 47.29 48.39 48.48 47.16 47.59 48.02
Total non-OECD Liquid Fuels Consumption ......... 50.75 51.44 51.52 51.66 52.02 52.72 52.78 53.01 53.18 54.00 54.11 54.40 51.35 52.63 53.93
Total World Liquid Fuels Consumption ................. 97.53 98.35 98.96 99.15 99.48 99.54 100.79 101.07 101.09 101.28 102.50 102.88 98.50 100.23 101.95
- = no data available
OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal,
Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States.
(a) Weighted geometric mean of real indices for various countries with weights equal to each country's share of world oil consumption in the base period. Exchange rate is measured in foreign currency per
U.S. dollar. GDP and exchange rate data are from Oxford Economics, and oil consumption data are from EIA.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 4a. U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply, Consumption, and Inventories
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2018
2017 2018 2019 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017 2018 2019
Supply (million barrels per day)
Crude Oil Supply
Domestic Production (a) ................................................. 8.99 9.10 9.29 9.92 10.24 10.42 10.66 11.04 11.19 11.21 11.07 11.27 9.33 10.59 11.18
Alaska .......................................................................... 0.52 0.50 0.45 0.51 0.51 0.48 0.43 0.49 0.51 0.49 0.44 0.50 0.49 0.48 0.48
Federal Gulf of Mexico (b) ............................................ 1.73 1.62 1.68 1.59 1.70 1.72 1.63 1.73 1.81 1.82 1.71 1.81 1.66 1.69 1.79
Lower 48 States (excl GOM) ........................................ 6.74 6.98 7.16 7.82 8.04 8.21 8.59 8.82 8.87 8.90 8.92 8.97 7.18 8.42 8.91
Crude Oil Net Imports (c) ................................................ 7.24 7.24 6.63 6.13 6.51 6.62 6.09 5.21 5.34 5.87 5.61 4.94 6.81 6.10 5.44
SPR Net Withdrawals ..................................................... 0.04 0.14 0.06 0.11 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.09 0.02 0.04
Commercial Inventory Net Withdrawals ......................... -0.59 0.41 0.34 0.51 -0.34 0.08 0.17 -0.01 -0.50 -0.04 0.17 -0.02 0.17 -0.02 -0.09
Crude Oil Adjustment (d) ................................................ 0.23 0.24 0.28 0.06 0.02 0.19 0.21 0.15 0.19 0.19 0.21 0.15 0.20 0.14 0.19
Total Crude Oil Input to Refineries ..................................... 15.91 17.13 16.60 16.72 16.44 17.32 17.15 16.44 16.27 17.27 17.10 16.37 16.59 16.84 16.75
Other Supply
Refinery Processing Gain ............................................... 1.09 1.13 1.07 1.12 1.08 1.12 1.13 1.11 1.07 1.12 1.13 1.10 1.11 1.11 1.11
Natural Gas Plant Liquids Production ............................. 3.54 3.70 3.72 3.97 3.90 4.13 4.33 4.42 4.38 4.59 4.64 4.65 3.73 4.20 4.56
Renewables and Oxygenate Production (e) ................... 1.17 1.16 1.19 1.23 1.15 1.19 1.21 1.21 1.15 1.21 1.22 1.22 1.19 1.19 1.20
Fuel Ethanol Production .............................................. 1.04 1.01 1.02 1.06 1.02 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.02 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.03 1.03 1.03
Petroleum Products Adjustment (f) ................................. 0.21 0.22 0.21 0.23 0.23 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.22 0.24 0.25
Product Net Imports (c) ................................................... -2.96 -2.99 -2.80 -3.53 -3.18 -3.24 -3.07 -3.34 -3.04 -3.30 -3.03 -3.15 -3.07 -3.21 -3.13
Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids ............................................ -1.20 -1.18 -1.16 -1.28 -1.29 -1.30 -1.34 -1.56 -1.33 -1.46 -1.47 -1.59 -1.20 -1.37 -1.46
Unfinished Oils ............................................................. 0.37 0.34 0.38 0.35 0.31 0.40 0.43 0.32 0.37 0.40 0.43 0.32 0.36 0.36 0.38
Other HC/Oxygenates .................................................. -0.13 -0.09 -0.09 -0.11 -0.11 -0.09 -0.08 -0.08 -0.09 -0.07 -0.06 -0.07 -0.10 -0.09 -0.08
Motor Gasoline Blend Comp. ....................................... 0.43 0.68 0.64 0.30 0.25 0.67 0.49 0.44 0.47 0.66 0.48 0.45 0.51 0.46 0.52
Finished Motor Gasoline .............................................. -0.66 -0.62 -0.63 -0.94 -0.73 -0.73 -0.51 -0.77 -0.85 -0.68 -0.46 -0.70 -0.72 -0.69 -0.67
Jet Fuel ........................................................................ -0.04 -0.07 -0.01 0.04 -0.03 0.02 0.05 0.08 0.00 0.05 0.07 0.11 -0.02 0.03 0.06
Distillate Fuel Oil .......................................................... -1.01 -1.36 -1.32 -1.19 -0.93 -1.36 -1.36 -1.07 -0.98 -1.35 -1.31 -0.99 -1.22 -1.18 -1.16
Residual Fuel Oil ......................................................... -0.10 -0.11 -0.12 -0.08 -0.07 -0.14 -0.10 -0.11 -0.07 -0.14 -0.10 -0.11 -0.10 -0.10 -0.11
Other Oils (g) ................................................................ -0.61 -0.60 -0.50 -0.62 -0.60 -0.71 -0.64 -0.58 -0.56 -0.70 -0.62 -0.56 -0.58 -0.63 -0.61
Product Inventory Net Withdrawals ................................. 0.56 -0.33 -0.07 0.32 0.31 -0.59 -0.31 0.39 0.20 -0.50 -0.29 0.33 0.12 -0.05 -0.07
Total Supply ....................................................................... 19.52 20.03 19.92 20.07 19.95 20.19 20.70 20.47 20.28 20.63 21.02 20.78 19.89 20.33 20.68
Total Petroleum and Other Liquids Net Imports ............ 4.28 4.25 3.83 2.60 3.34 3.38 3.02 1.87 2.30 2.57 2.58 1.79 3.74 2.90 2.31
- = no data available
(a) Includes lease condensate.
(b) Crude oil production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM).
(c) Net imports equals gross imports minus gross exports.
(d) Crude oil adjustment balances supply and consumption and was previously referred to as "Unaccounted for Crude Oil."
(e) Renewables and oxygenate production includes pentanes plus, oxygenates (excluding fuel ethanol), and renewable fuels.
(f) Petroleum products adjustment includes hydrogen/oxygenates/renewables/other hydrocarbons, motor gasoline blend components, and finished motor gasoline.
(g) "Other Oils" inludes aviation gasoline blend components, finished aviation gasoline, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, still gas,
and miscellaneous products.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
SPR: Strategic Petroleum Reserve
HC: Hydrocarbons
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 4b. U.S. Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids (HGL) and Petroleum Refinery Balances (million barrels per day, except inventories and utilization factor)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2018
2017 2018 2019 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017 2018 2019
HGL Production
Natural Gas Processing Plants
Ethane ............................................................... 1.33 1.39 1.34 1.54 1.54 1.62 1.72 1.82 1.83 1.92 1.92 1.95 1.40 1.67 1.90
Propane ............................................................. 1.16 1.21 1.23 1.28 1.26 1.31 1.36 1.37 1.35 1.39 1.42 1.43 1.22 1.33 1.40
Butanes ............................................................. 0.63 0.65 0.67 0.69 0.66 0.72 0.74 0.74 0.73 0.76 0.77 0.76 0.66 0.71 0.75
Natural Gasoline (Pentanes Plus) .................... 0.41 0.45 0.48 0.46 0.44 0.49 0.52 0.50 0.47 0.51 0.53 0.51 0.45 0.49 0.51
Refinery and Blender Net Production
Ethane/Ethylene ................................................ 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00
Propane ............................................................. 0.29 0.32 0.30 0.32 0.31 0.33 0.33 0.32 0.31 0.33 0.33 0.32 0.31 0.32 0.32
Propylene (refinery-grade) ................................ 0.27 0.29 0.27 0.29 0.28 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28
Butanes/Butylenes ............................................ -0.09 0.27 0.16 -0.20 -0.07 0.26 0.18 -0.19 -0.07 0.26 0.18 -0.18 0.04 0.05 0.05
Renewable Fuels and Oxygenate Plant Net Production
Natural Gasoline (Pentanes Plus) .................... -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02
HGL Consumption
Ethane/Ethylene ................................................... 1.19 1.23 1.13 1.29 1.28 1.32 1.46 1.54 1.55 1.61 1.62 1.65 1.21 1.40 1.61
Propane ................................................................ 1.05 0.60 0.67 0.90 1.14 0.65 0.71 0.95 1.13 0.66 0.73 0.96 0.81 0.86 0.87
Propylene (refinery-grade) ................................... 0.34 0.31 0.28 0.32 0.31 0.31 0.30 0.29 0.31 0.31 0.30 0.29 0.31 0.30 0.30
Butanes/Butylenes ............................................... 0.12 0.23 0.18 0.16 0.20 0.28 0.27 0.24 0.24 0.32 0.31 0.28 0.17 0.25 0.28
Natural Gasoline (Pentanes Plus) ....................... 0.10 0.08 0.08 0.13 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.10 0.08 0.07
Refinery Processing Gain .................................. 1.09 1.13 1.07 1.12 1.08 1.12 1.13 1.11 1.07 1.12 1.13 1.10 1.11 1.11 1.11
Refinery Distillation Inputs ................................ 16.23 17.42 16.90 17.01 16.67 17.44 17.37 16.69 16.50 17.39 17.33 16.63 16.89 17.05 16.96
Refinery Operable Distillation Capacity ........... 18.62 18.58 18.55 18.51 18.51 18.55 18.55 18.55 18.56 18.56 18.59 18.60 18.56 18.54 18.58
Refinery Distillation Utilization Factor .............. 0.87 0.94 0.91 0.92 0.90 0.94 0.94 0.90 0.89 0.94 0.93 0.89 0.91 0.92 0.91
- = no data available
(a) "Other Oils" includes aviation gasoline blend components, finished aviation gasoline, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, still
gas, and miscellaneous products.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 4c. U.S. Regional Motor Gasoline Prices and Inventories
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2018
2017 2018 2019 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017 2018 2019
Prices (cents per gallon)
Refiner Wholesale Price ............................ 163 165 172 176 190 194 185 171 170 188 187 176 169 185 181
Gasoline Regular Grade Retail Prices Including Taxes
PADD 1 ...................................................... 231 233 241 249 263 269 260 250 247 263 263 256 239 260 257
PADD 2 ...................................................... 223 228 232 242 251 263 256 240 234 259 259 246 231 253 250
PADD 3 ...................................................... 210 216 222 225 235 245 234 221 219 238 236 226 218 234 230
PADD 4 ...................................................... 227 239 245 252 249 262 262 246 228 254 264 250 241 255 249
PADD 5 ...................................................... 276 289 290 299 306 323 313 292 283 313 312 293 288 309 301
U.S. Average .......................................... 233 238 244 251 262 272 264 250 244 266 266 254 242 262 258
Gasoline All Grades Including Taxes 244 250 255 263 273 283 275 261 256 277 278 267 253 273 270
- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD).
See “Petroleum for Administration Defense District” in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Petroleum Marketing Monthly, DOE/EIA-0380;
Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109; Petroleum Supply Annual, DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report, DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 5a. U.S. Natural Gas Supply, Consumption, and Inventories
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2018
2017 2018 2019 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017 2018 2019
Supply (billion cubic feet per day)
Total Marketed Production ............ 76.32 77.36 79.30 82.57 84.60 85.59 87.17 88.26 88.77 88.99 89.45 90.28 78.91 86.42 89.38
Alaska ...................................... 1.01 0.97 0.82 0.98 1.00 0.85 0.77 0.94 1.01 0.86 0.78 0.94 0.94 0.89 0.90
Federal GOM (a) ...................... 3.26 2.99 2.91 2.79 3.45 3.33 3.21 3.22 3.45 3.28 3.16 3.17 2.99 3.30 3.27
Lower 48 States (excl GOM) ..... 72.05 73.40 75.56 78.80 80.14 81.41 83.19 84.11 84.31 84.85 85.51 86.17 74.97 82.23 85.22
Total Dry Gas Production ............. 71.28 72.09 74.01 76.83 78.68 79.56 80.98 81.94 82.37 82.52 82.90 83.62 73.57 80.30 82.86
LNG Gross Imports ..................... 0.29 0.18 0.17 0.22 0.31 0.17 0.15 0.22 0.32 0.17 0.17 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.22
LNG Gross Exports ..................... 1.63 1.80 1.67 2.65 2.51 2.78 3.00 3.44 4.00 4.22 5.14 6.27 1.94 2.94 4.92
Pipeline Gross Imports ................ 8.89 7.76 7.74 7.93 8.35 7.85 7.62 7.75 8.73 8.08 7.98 8.06 8.08 7.89 8.21
Pipeline Gross Exports ................ 7.24 6.49 6.43 6.83 8.26 7.03 7.09 7.48 8.98 7.71 7.58 7.65 6.75 7.46 7.98
Supplemental Gaseous Fuels ...... 0.16 0.13 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.15 0.17 0.17
Net Inventory Withdrawals ........... 13.72 -9.02 -7.19 5.55 18.12 -11.40 -10.63 2.74 16.79 -9.80 -8.13 4.15 0.72 -0.37 0.69
Total Supply ................................... 85.47 62.84 66.79 81.22 94.85 66.52 68.19 81.90 95.39 69.21 70.37 82.30 74.05 77.81 79.26
Balancing Item (b) .......................... 1.17 0.21 0.74 -1.12 -0.25 0.27 -0.27 -1.20 -0.22 -0.56 0.04 0.51 0.24 -0.37 -0.06
Total Primary Supply ...................... 86.64 63.05 67.53 80.10 94.60 66.79 67.92 80.70 95.17 68.66 70.40 82.81 74.29 77.44 79.20
- = no data available
(a) Marketed production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico.
(b) The balancing item represents the difference between the sum of the components of natural gas supply and the sum of components of natural gas demand.
(c) Natural gas used for electricity generation and (a limited amount of) useful thermal output by electric utilities and independent power producers.
(d) For a list of States in each inventory region refer toWeekly Natural Gas Storage Report, Notes and Definitions (http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/notes.html) .
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
LNG: liquefied natural gas.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; and Electric Power
Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 5b. U.S. Regional Natural Gas Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2018
2017 2018 2019 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017 2018 2019
Wholesale/Spot
Henry Hub Spot Price ........ 3.12 3.19 3.06 3.01 3.61 3.18 3.20 3.26 3.36 3.11 3.13 3.19 3.10 3.31 3.19
Residential Retail
New England ..................... 12.85 14.08 18.12 13.41 12.95 14.03 16.98 13.59 13.14 14.01 16.92 13.48 13.55 13.56 13.62
Middle Atlantic ................... 9.92 12.18 17.11 11.40 10.05 12.03 16.48 11.19 10.20 12.04 16.43 10.93 11.19 11.09 11.12
E. N. Central ...................... 7.77 11.52 17.80 8.13 7.75 10.96 16.70 9.07 8.13 10.99 16.64 8.96 9.00 9.07 9.29
W. N. Central ..................... 8.32 11.85 18.78 9.49 8.83 11.90 17.80 9.82 8.96 11.86 17.79 9.94 9.79 10.07 10.20
S. Atlantic .......................... 12.28 20.04 26.87 13.71 11.27 16.35 22.23 12.88 11.45 16.26 22.17 12.67 14.87 13.10 13.16
E. S. Central ...................... 10.53 15.83 20.82 11.74 9.24 14.03 20.02 12.72 10.37 14.74 20.73 13.05 12.24 11.24 12.29
W. S. Central ..................... 10.33 16.49 22.10 12.52 8.91 14.08 19.67 12.25 9.61 14.32 19.80 12.14 13.00 11.46 11.93
Mountain ........................... 8.21 10.17 13.91 9.17 9.28 10.40 13.77 9.23 9.04 10.36 13.83 9.26 9.28 9.82 9.71
Pacific ................................ 12.02 12.64 12.90 11.29 12.27 12.42 12.88 11.64 12.55 12.78 13.25 11.97 12.01 12.17 12.49
U.S. Average .................. 9.73 13.00 17.74 10.32 9.56 12.32 16.66 10.73 9.90 12.41 16.75 10.70 10.97 10.78 10.96
Commercial Retail
New England ..................... 9.55 9.97 10.61 9.53 10.24 10.51 10.51 9.96 10.16 10.33 10.32 10.15 9.71 10.24 10.20
Middle Atlantic ................... 7.66 7.42 6.82 7.40 7.77 7.74 7.14 7.69 7.84 7.75 7.12 7.60 7.44 7.66 7.66
E. N. Central ...................... 6.63 7.87 8.98 6.48 6.60 7.82 9.17 7.20 6.86 7.82 9.11 7.11 6.95 7.13 7.24
W. N. Central ..................... 6.96 7.79 9.08 6.91 7.46 8.07 9.12 7.48 7.67 8.06 9.07 7.43 7.24 7.69 7.77
S. Atlantic .......................... 8.88 9.97 9.62 9.04 8.74 9.40 9.91 9.02 8.83 9.60 9.91 8.83 9.21 9.08 9.10
E. S. Central ...................... 9.05 10.28 10.76 9.32 8.58 9.75 10.28 9.20 8.71 9.64 10.15 9.11 9.54 9.12 9.14
W. S. Central ..................... 7.63 8.20 8.86 7.92 7.27 7.73 8.28 7.81 7.41 7.78 8.10 7.69 8.02 7.64 7.66
Mountain ........................... 6.88 7.37 8.27 7.25 7.80 8.04 8.72 7.58 7.72 7.92 8.61 7.48 7.23 7.87 7.77
Pacific ................................ 9.09 9.06 9.08 8.61 8.82 8.48 8.89 8.67 8.75 8.80 9.12 8.75 8.94 8.72 8.82
U.S. Average .................. 7.71 8.32 8.68 7.65 7.78 8.32 8.72 8.00 7.90 8.37 8.70 7.94 7.90 8.04 8.08
Industrial Retail
New England ..................... 7.81 7.04 6.39 7.17 8.45 7.84 7.22 8.35 8.59 7.73 7.14 8.16 7.23 8.08 8.04
Middle Atlantic ................... 7.69 7.59 7.62 7.07 8.10 7.59 7.55 7.83 8.14 7.46 7.46 7.74 7.50 7.88 7.84
E. N. Central ...................... 5.86 5.96 5.59 5.42 6.47 6.27 6.20 6.06 6.60 6.20 6.12 6.03 5.70 6.29 6.31
W. N. Central ..................... 5.00 4.28 4.24 4.69 5.65 4.93 4.74 5.24 5.71 4.86 4.68 5.23 4.59 5.18 5.17
S. Atlantic .......................... 5.35 5.01 4.88 4.94 5.65 5.01 5.00 5.37 5.56 4.98 4.93 5.26 5.05 5.28 5.20
E. S. Central ...................... 5.06 4.59 4.40 4.62 5.13 4.55 4.54 4.95 5.11 4.54 4.51 4.85 4.68 4.81 4.77
W. S. Central ..................... 3.42 3.42 3.30 3.21 3.77 3.40 3.49 3.52 3.61 3.29 3.43 3.46 3.33 3.55 3.45
Mountain ........................... 5.31 5.36 5.61 5.56 5.89 5.86 6.24 6.22 6.26 5.87 6.09 6.07 5.45 6.04 6.09
Pacific ................................ 7.31 6.71 6.32 6.63 7.20 6.64 6.69 6.80 7.17 6.55 6.65 6.69 6.78 6.85 6.78
U.S. Average .................. 4.50 4.12 3.89 4.05 4.82 4.13 4.10 4.42 4.73 4.05 4.05 4.35 4.15 4.39 4.31
- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130.
Natural gas Henry Hub spot price from Reuter's News Service (http://www.reuters.com).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 6. U.S. Coal Supply, Consumption, and Inventories
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2018
2017 2018 2019 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017 2018 2019
Supply (million short tons)
Production ........................................... 197.0 187.1 196.2 192.0 186.5 171.6 204.5 197.7 195.1 166.3 205.7 195.0 772.3 760.4 762.1
Appalachia ....................................... 50.7 51.2 46.3 47.7 49.9 45.0 41.6 40.4 43.2 38.3 38.1 37.6 196.0 177.0 157.1
Interior .............................................. 38.5 36.4 34.9 34.8 36.5 34.9 42.3 42.6 46.3 35.8 43.4 43.6 144.6 156.3 169.2
Western ........................................... 107.8 99.4 115.0 109.5 100.2 91.7 120.6 114.6 105.5 92.3 124.2 113.8 431.7 427.1 435.8
Primary Inventory Withdrawals ............ 0.1 1.8 1.4 0.9 -2.8 2.1 1.0 -0.5 -3.9 1.5 1.2 -3.0 4.2 -0.1 -4.3
Imports ................................................ 1.9 2.2 2.3 1.5 1.2 2.2 2.9 2.6 1.4 2.3 2.9 2.6 8.0 8.9 9.3
Exports ................................................ 22.3 21.8 24.6 27.6 22.3 20.0 19.8 19.3 19.8 19.0 19.9 19.7 96.3 81.4 78.4
Metallurgical Coal ............................. 12.2 13.5 14.8 14.6 13.8 13.6 13.6 13.3 13.7 13.3 13.6 13.2 55.1 54.3 53.7
Steam Coal ...................................... 10.1 8.3 9.8 13.0 8.6 6.4 6.3 6.0 6.1 5.7 6.3 6.5 41.2 27.2 24.7
Total Primary Supply .............................. 176.8 169.2 175.3 166.8 162.5 156.0 188.7 180.6 172.8 151.1 189.9 174.9 688.1 687.8 688.7
Secondary Inventory Withdrawals ........ 1.0 3.7 18.2 -0.1 4.8 2.5 12.3 -7.8 1.0 2.5 5.7 -9.2 22.9 11.8 0.0
Waste Coal (a) .................................... 2.4 1.7 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 9.2 9.6 9.6
Total Supply ........................................... 180.2 174.7 196.0 169.3 169.7 160.8 203.4 175.2 176.2 156.0 198.0 168.1 720.1 709.1 698.3
Discrepancy (c) 6.8 7.9 -7.4 -7.2 -4.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 -4.6 0.0
- = no data available
(a) Waste coal includes waste coal and cloal slurry reprocessed into briquettes.
(b) Coal used for electricity generation and (a limited amount of) useful thermal output by electric utilities and independent power producers.
(c) The discrepancy reflects an unaccounted-for shipper and receiver reporting difference, assumed to be zero in the forecast period.
(d) Primary stocks are held at the mines and distribution points.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Quarterly Coal Report , DOE/EIA-0121; and Electric Power Monthly ,
DOE/EIA-0226.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 7a. U.S. Electricity Industry Overview
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2018
2017 2018 2019 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017 2018 2019
Electricity Supply (billion kilowatthours per day)
Electricity Generation ......................... 10.58 10.68 12.15 10.58 10.90 10.78 12.24 10.55 10.99 10.86 12.34 10.63 11.00 11.12 11.21
Electric Power Sector (a) ................ 10.14 10.26 11.72 10.16 10.48 10.36 11.81 10.15 10.58 10.45 11.91 10.23 10.57 10.70 10.80
Comm. and Indus. Sectors (b) ....... 0.43 0.42 0.44 0.42 0.42 0.41 0.43 0.40 0.41 0.40 0.43 0.40 0.43 0.42 0.41
Net Imports ....................................... 0.13 0.14 0.19 0.16 0.20 0.21 0.23 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.17 0.16 0.21 0.19
Total Supply ....................................... 10.71 10.83 12.34 10.74 11.10 10.99 12.46 10.73 11.18 11.05 12.55 10.81 11.16 11.32 11.40
Losses and Unaccounted for (c) ...... 0.60 0.78 0.70 0.69 0.46 0.81 0.71 0.67 0.58 0.82 0.72 0.68 0.69 0.67 0.70
Prices
Power Generation Fuel Costs (dollars per million Btu)
Coal ................................................. 2.08 2.12 2.07 2.10 2.21 2.21 2.22 2.20 2.22 2.20 2.22 2.19 2.09 2.21 2.21
Natural Gas ..................................... 3.68 3.38 3.19 3.21 4.10 3.37 3.41 3.65 3.85 3.24 3.28 3.51 3.34 3.61 3.45
Residual Fuel Oil ............................. 11.16 10.60 10.03 11.07 12.42 12.86 11.66 11.27 11.51 12.16 11.70 11.66 10.69 12.11 11.73
Distillate Fuel Oil .............................. 12.74 12.23 13.13 14.84 16.25 15.23 14.86 14.90 14.67 14.80 15.15 15.45 13.27 15.48 15.00
Retail Prices (cents per kilowatthour)
Residential Sector ........................... 12.60 13.00 13.20 12.75 12.73 13.35 13.58 13.22 13.27 13.79 13.91 13.46 12.90 13.23 13.62
Commercial Sector ......................... 10.39 10.68 11.03 10.57 10.56 10.94 11.40 10.94 10.80 11.00 11.35 10.96 10.68 10.98 11.04
Industrial Sector .............................. 6.64 6.88 7.26 6.86 6.90 7.08 7.52 7.08 6.92 7.14 7.60 7.15 6.92 7.15 7.21
- = no data available
(a) Total retail sales to all sectors includes residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sector sales.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Retail Sales represents total retail electricity sales by electric utilities and power marketers.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric
Power Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 7c. U.S. Regional Retail Electricity Prices (Cents per Kilowatthour
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2018
2017 2018 2019 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017 2018 2019
Residential Sector
New England .............. 19.06 19.49 19.50 19.39 19.92 20.46 20.35 20.53 21.22 21.58 21.29 21.24 19.36 20.30 21.32
Middle Atlantic ............ 15.55 16.27 16.43 15.85 15.68 16.57 16.83 16.39 16.19 17.03 17.20 16.68 16.03 16.36 16.77
E. N. Central ............... 12.90 13.58 13.26 13.26 13.19 14.11 13.87 13.98 13.87 14.70 14.31 14.38 13.24 13.77 14.29
W. N. Central ............. 10.94 12.66 13.17 11.31 10.98 12.95 13.56 11.71 11.34 13.28 13.80 11.93 12.02 12.28 12.58
S. Atlantic ................... 11.69 12.01 12.26 11.84 11.88 12.36 12.67 12.31 12.38 12.74 12.95 12.49 11.97 12.32 12.65
E. S. Central ............... 11.08 11.44 11.32 11.27 11.04 11.87 11.97 11.86 11.58 12.15 11.99 12.03 11.28 11.67 11.93
W. S. Central .............. 10.55 10.93 10.87 10.77 10.51 11.00 11.07 11.12 10.90 11.29 11.20 11.13 10.79 10.94 11.14
Mountain ..................... 11.28 12.16 12.31 11.72 11.49 12.42 12.65 12.09 11.84 12.76 12.94 12.32 11.92 12.21 12.52
Pacific ......................... 14.52 14.70 16.50 14.44 15.06 15.27 16.66 14.59 15.66 16.15 17.66 14.99 15.09 15.42 16.14
U.S. Average ........... 12.60 13.00 13.20 12.75 12.73 13.35 13.58 13.22 13.27 13.79 13.91 13.46 12.90 13.23 13.62
Commercial Sector
New England .............. 15.11 15.06 15.72 15.19 15.61 15.60 16.32 15.85 15.77 15.13 15.72 15.46 15.28 15.86 15.52
Middle Atlantic ............ 12.07 12.75 13.35 12.12 12.06 12.80 13.49 12.29 12.08 12.77 13.45 12.38 12.59 12.68 12.69
E. N. Central ............... 10.02 10.24 10.05 10.04 10.16 10.51 10.42 10.36 10.37 10.65 10.45 10.46 10.09 10.36 10.48
W. N. Central ............. 9.11 10.11 10.58 9.25 9.24 10.37 10.94 9.59 9.43 10.58 11.13 9.83 9.79 10.06 10.27
S. Atlantic ................... 9.44 9.38 9.55 9.52 9.68 9.65 9.90 9.91 10.18 9.88 9.94 9.93 9.48 9.79 9.98
E. S. Central ............... 10.58 10.56 10.62 10.65 10.91 11.10 11.36 11.26 10.97 11.05 11.09 11.25 10.60 11.17 11.09
W. S. Central .............. 8.37 8.40 8.38 8.31 8.32 8.39 8.47 8.49 8.10 8.00 8.07 8.30 8.37 8.42 8.12
Mountain ..................... 9.14 9.93 10.04 9.49 9.33 10.19 10.31 9.77 9.38 10.22 10.34 9.83 9.67 9.93 9.97
Pacific ......................... 12.53 13.56 15.36 13.62 12.95 14.17 16.32 14.35 13.82 14.83 16.83 14.56 13.82 14.50 15.05
U.S. Average ........... 10.39 10.68 11.03 10.57 10.56 10.94 11.40 10.94 10.80 11.00 11.35 10.96 10.68 10.98 11.04
Industrial Sector
New England .............. 12.46 12.25 12.60 12.32 12.73 12.49 12.89 12.62 13.17 12.78 13.09 12.74 12.41 12.69 12.95
Middle Atlantic ............ 6.94 6.94 6.88 6.71 7.03 6.98 7.00 6.85 6.82 6.85 6.94 6.79 6.87 6.97 6.85
E. N. Central ............... 7.03 7.04 7.01 7.02 7.26 7.25 7.28 7.26 7.30 7.31 7.35 7.32 7.03 7.26 7.32
W. N. Central ............. 6.89 7.33 8.06 6.96 7.14 7.57 8.33 7.17 7.26 7.69 8.46 7.28 7.33 7.57 7.69
S. Atlantic ................... 6.32 6.39 6.79 6.43 6.62 6.60 7.10 6.70 6.58 6.63 7.15 6.74 6.48 6.76 6.78
E. S. Central ............... 5.90 5.95 6.17 6.06 6.21 6.16 6.48 6.32 6.30 6.28 6.60 6.42 6.02 6.29 6.40
W. S. Central .............. 5.29 5.56 5.72 5.47 5.56 5.69 5.98 5.67 5.43 5.68 6.04 5.75 5.51 5.73 5.73
Mountain ..................... 6.08 6.54 7.12 6.26 6.33 6.75 7.33 6.43 6.54 6.96 7.55 6.62 6.53 6.74 6.94
Pacific ......................... 8.23 9.34 10.72 9.77 8.59 9.62 10.88 9.91 8.74 9.72 10.96 9.97 9.58 9.80 9.90
U.S. Average ........... 6.64 6.88 7.26 6.86 6.90 7.08 7.52 7.08 6.92 7.14 7.60 7.15 6.92 7.15 7.21
All Sectors (a)
New England .............. 16.37 16.29 16.77 16.34 17.07 17.00 17.51 17.18 17.77 17.29 17.69 17.35 16.45 17.20 17.53
Middle Atlantic ............ 12.35 12.68 13.26 12.28 12.48 12.83 13.50 12.55 12.59 12.94 13.60 12.66 12.66 12.86 12.97
E. N. Central ............... 10.00 10.13 10.15 10.07 10.28 10.46 10.59 10.46 10.56 10.72 10.77 10.65 10.09 10.45 10.67
W. N. Central ............. 9.15 10.06 10.75 9.27 9.32 10.32 11.10 9.57 9.53 10.53 11.29 9.76 9.83 10.10 10.30
S. Atlantic ................... 9.86 9.93 10.36 9.96 10.20 10.26 10.73 10.38 10.62 10.53 10.90 10.48 10.04 10.41 10.64
E. S. Central ............... 9.20 9.27 9.55 9.33 9.51 9.70 10.14 9.84 9.76 9.83 10.12 9.94 9.35 9.81 9.92
W. S. Central .............. 8.10 8.36 8.67 8.25 8.22 8.44 8.86 8.49 8.19 8.39 8.79 8.45 8.37 8.52 8.48
Mountain ..................... 8.97 9.67 10.12 9.26 9.18 9.90 10.39 9.52 9.38 10.09 10.58 9.68 9.55 9.79 9.98
Pacific ......................... 12.48 12.98 14.79 13.10 12.90 13.49 15.22 13.48 13.52 14.10 15.81 13.73 13.38 13.81 14.32
U.S. Average ........... 10.26 10.47 10.98 10.39 10.50 10.76 11.32 10.75 10.78 10.96 11.46 10.86 10.55 10.85 11.03
- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Volume-weighted average of retail prices to residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric
Power Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 7d. U.S. Regional Electricity Generation, All Sectors (Thousand megawatthours per day)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2018
2017 2018 2019 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017 2018 2019
United States
Coal .............................................. 3,242 3,096 3,764 3,166 3,286 2,993 3,776 3,170 3,345 2,886 3,652 3,010 3,318 3,307 3,224
Natural Gas ................................... 2,965 3,288 4,359 3,321 3,347 3,561 4,361 3,379 3,381 3,681 4,544 3,568 3,486 3,664 3,796
Petroleum (a) ................................ 61 54 56 56 91 63 70 62 79 64 70 62 57 71 69
Other Gases ................................. 40 39 40 35 41 40 41 36 41 40 41 37 39 39 40
Nuclear ......................................... 2,247 2,034 2,302 2,239 2,241 2,091 2,273 2,132 2,200 2,070 2,240 2,085 2,206 2,184 2,149
Renewable Energy Sources: 2,004 2,155 1,616 1,746 1,872 2,006 1,695 1,752 1,918 2,090 1,769 1,851 1,879 1,831 1,906
Conventional Hydropower .......... 918 1,010 717 662 775 820 733 655 743 800 724 654 826 746 730
Wind .......................................... 764 747 503 754 758 768 538 758 818 838 584 821 691 705 765
Wood Biomass .......................... 118 115 122 118 118 110 120 112 116 110 121 113 118 115 115
Waste Biomass .......................... 58 56 56 57 58 59 60 60 59 60 61 61 57 59 60
Geothermal ................................ 45 43 44 44 47 46 47 47 48 47 47 48 44 47 47
Solar .......................................... 101 184 174 111 117 204 196 119 135 236 232 155 143 159 190
Pumped Storage Hydropower ....... -16 -16 -22 -15 -14 -12 -16 -14 -13 -12 -16 -14 -17 -14 -14
Other Nonrenewable Fuels (b) ...... 35 35 37 35 35 36 38 35 35 36 39 35 36 36 36
Total Generation ........................... 10,577 10,684 12,152 10,583 10,900 10,777 12,238 10,552 10,986 10,857 12,339 10,634 11,002 11,119 11,206
Northeast Census Region
Coal .............................................. 154 134 136 140 140 103 152 123 161 101 145 131 141 130 134
Natural Gas ................................... 487 482 637 510 501 510 650 537 525 532 687 569 529 550 579
Petroleum (a) ................................ 4 2 3 3 25 3 4 4 13 3 4 4 3 9 6
Other Gases ................................. 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Nuclear ......................................... 539 476 549 529 529 491 534 501 512 478 509 461 523 514 490
Hydropower (c) ............................. 102 107 99 101 82 89 91 94 83 89 92 94 102 89 89
Other Renewables (d) ................... 72 76 68 76 79 71 65 76 79 72 66 78 73 73 74
Other Nonrenewable Fuels (b) ...... 11 11 12 12 11 11 12 12 11 11 12 12 11 11 11
Total Generation ........................... 1,371 1,290 1,505 1,372 1,369 1,281 1,510 1,348 1,386 1,288 1,517 1,351 1,385 1,377 1,386
South Census Region
Coal .............................................. 1,330 1,412 1,681 1,320 1,335 1,311 1,676 1,347 1,390 1,245 1,584 1,243 1,436 1,418 1,366
Natural Gas ................................... 1,757 2,088 2,565 1,910 2,004 2,210 2,579 1,918 1,947 2,267 2,688 2,023 2,082 2,179 2,233
Petroleum (a) ................................ 26 22 23 22 32 27 29 24 30 27 29 23 23 28 28
Other Gases ................................. 15 15 15 13 15 15 15 13 15 15 15 14 14 15 15
Nuclear ......................................... 979 888 1,003 1,010 995 936 1,018 955 995 939 1,020 957 970 976 978
Hydropower (c) ............................. 128 138 99 96 106 117 96 90 106 117 97 91 115 102 103
Other Renewables (d) ................... 401 402 323 387 412 444 358 416 456 505 409 469 378 407 460
Other Nonrenewable Fuels (b) ...... 15 15 16 15 15 16 17 15 15 16 17 15 15 15 16
Total Generation ........................... 4,650 4,980 5,725 4,773 4,913 5,076 5,788 4,778 4,955 5,131 5,860 4,835 5,034 5,140 5,197
Midwest Census Region
Coal .............................................. 1,288 1,177 1,395 1,216 1,305 1,174 1,444 1,221 1,298 1,145 1,408 1,163 1,269 1,286 1,253
Natural Gas ................................... 290 272 406 346 370 346 429 351 394 374 472 397 329 374 410
Petroleum (a) ................................ 8 7 7 8 11 11 12 11 11 11 12 10 8 11 11
Other Gases ................................. 17 16 17 14 18 16 17 14 18 16 18 15 16 16 17
Nuclear ......................................... 555 543 579 532 550 509 554 519 530 500 544 510 552 533 521
Hydropower (c) ............................. 52 58 37 36 42 49 34 34 43 49 34 34 46 40 40
Other Renewables (d) ................... 313 303 199 323 324 296 200 323 340 312 211 352 284 286 304
Other Nonrenewable Fuels (b) ...... 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Total Generation ........................... 2,526 2,380 2,645 2,479 2,624 2,405 2,694 2,477 2,639 2,412 2,703 2,485 2,508 2,550 2,560
West Census Region
Coal .............................................. 470 373 551 490 507 404 504 478 496 395 515 474 472 473 470
Natural Gas ................................... 431 446 751 555 473 495 704 573 514 507 697 578 547 562 575
Petroleum (a) ................................ 23 22 23 23 23 23 24 24 24 24 25 25 23 24 24
Other Gases ................................. 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Nuclear ......................................... 175 127 171 168 166 154 167 157 163 154 167 157 160 161 160
Hydropower (c) ............................. 619 692 460 414 531 553 497 423 497 533 484 421 545 501 484
Other Renewables (d) ................... 301 363 309 298 283 376 338 282 300 401 358 297 318 320 339
Other Nonrenewable Fuels (b) ...... 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5
Total Generation ........................... 2,031 2,035 2,277 1,959 1,993 2,016 2,245 1,948 2,006 2,025 2,258 1,963 2,076 2,051 2,063
(a) Residual fuel oil, distillate fuel oil, petroleum coke, and other petroleum liquids.
(b) Batteries, chemicals, hydrogen, pitch, purchased steam, sulfur, nonrenewable waste, and miscellaneous technologies.
(c) Conventional hydroelectric and pumped storage generation.
(d) Wind, biomass, geothermal, and solar generation.
Notes: Data reflect generation supplied by electricity-only and combined-heat-and-power (CHP) plants operated by electric utilities, independent power producers, and
the commercial and industrial sectors. The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Energy Information Administration Electric Power Monthly and Electric Power Annual.
Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 7e. U.S. Regional Fuel Consumption for Electricity Generation, All Sectors
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2018
2017 2018 2019 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017 2018 2019
Fuel Consumption for Electricity Generation, All Sectors
United States
Coal (thousand st/d) .................. 1,777 1,690 2,069 1,762 1,791 1,635 2,071 1,749 1,812 1,580 2,010 1,668 1,825 1,812 1,768
Natural Gas (million cf/d) ........... 21,934 24,634 33,338 24,532 24,701 27,015 33,488 25,218 25,295 28,063 35,071 26,774 26,136 27,623 28,822
Petroleum (thousand b/d) .......... 107 100 105 104 168 113 124 112 143 115 126 113 104 129 124
Residual Fuel Oil .................... 26 27 28 26 54 26 30 26 41 26 29 26 27 34 30
Distillate Fuel Oil ..................... 28 24 23 27 47 25 25 25 32 25 25 25 25 31 27
Petroleum Coke (a) ................. 49 45 48 46 60 58 65 56 63 60 67 57 47 59 62
Other Petroleum Liquids (b) .... 4 4 7 5 7 4 5 5 7 4 5 5 5 5 5
Northeast Census Region
Coal (thousand st/d) .................. 75 63 67 68 66 49 74 60 76 48 71 64 68 63 65
Natural Gas (million cf/d) ........... 3,772 3,666 5,065 3,826 3,781 3,912 5,089 4,069 4,009 4,086 5,406 4,309 4,085 4,216 4,456
Petroleum (thousand b/d) .......... 7 4 7 6 48 4 7 6 24 4 7 6 6 16 10
South Census Region
Coal (thousand st/d) .................. 715 759 902 726 707 700 900 727 728 667 857 678 776 759 733
Natural Gas (million cf/d) ........... 12,476 15,424 19,083 13,948 14,494 16,516 19,463 14,048 14,233 17,048 20,379 14,962 15,247 16,138 16,668
Petroleum (thousand b/d) .......... 47 42 43 42 60 49 54 44 56 50 54 44 43 52 51
Midwest Census Region
Coal (thousand st/d) .................. 717 655 788 690 731 660 815 691 727 644 794 658 713 724 706
Natural Gas (million cf/d) ........... 2,489 2,165 3,566 2,641 2,903 2,792 3,586 2,794 3,173 3,021 3,984 3,145 2,718 3,020 3,332
Petroleum (thousand b/d) .......... 15 16 16 18 21 20 22 21 21 20 22 21 16 21 21
West Census Region
Coal (thousand st/d) .................. 269 213 313 278 286 225 282 271 281 221 288 269 268 266 265
Natural Gas (million cf/d) ........... 3,197 3,379 5,625 4,116 3,523 3,794 5,351 4,307 3,880 3,909 5,302 4,359 4,086 4,249 4,366
Petroleum (thousand b/d) .......... 39 37 39 38 39 39 41 41 41 40 42 41 38 40 41
Price Indexes
Consumer Price Index (all urban consumers)
(index, 1982-1984=1.00) ............................ 2.44 2.44 2.45 2.47 2.49 2.50 2.51 2.52 2.53 2.55 2.56 2.58 2.45 2.50 2.55
Producer Price Index: All Commodities
(index, 1982=1.00) .................................... 1.93 1.92 1.92 1.95 1.96 1.97 1.97 1.99 1.99 2.00 2.01 2.02 1.93 1.97 2.00
Producer Price Index: Petroleum
(index, 1982=1.00) .................................... 1.66 1.67 1.77 1.89 2.01 1.98 1.92 1.85 1.83 1.92 1.95 1.91 1.75 1.94 1.90
GDP Implicit Price Deflator
(index, 2009=100) ..................................... 112.8 113.0 113.6 114.2 114.9 115.5 116.1 116.8 117.5 118.1 118.8 119.4 113.4 115.8 118.4
Miscellaneous
Vehicle Miles Traveled (b)
(million miles/day) ..................................... 8,301 9,163 9,015 8,692 8,318 9,279 9,160 8,829 8,456 9,462 9,314 8,945 8,794 8,899 9,046
Air Travel Capacity
(Available ton-miles/day, thousands) .......... 567 619 667 568 541 626 650 569 544 627 653 574 606 596 600
Aircraft Utilization
(Revenue ton-miles/day, thousands) .......... 344 390 397 350 332 394 408 348 333 397 412 354 370 371 374
Airline Ticket Price Index
(index, 1982-1984=100) ............................. 277.8 297.0 264.9 266.5 282.6 325.3 312.3 310.5 304.0 339.8 323.5 321.4 276.5 307.7 322.2
Raw Steel Production
(million short tons per day) ........................ 0.248 0.247 0.250 0.245 0.255 0.255 0.234 0.199 0.256 0.254 0.236 0.204 0.248 0.236 0.237
- = no data available
SAAR = Seasonally-adjusted annual rate
(a) Fuel share weights of individual sector indices based on EIA Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey .
(b) Total highway travel includes gasoline and diesel fuel vehicles.
(c) Includes electric power sector use of geothermal energy and non-biomass waste.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data : Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17; Federal Highway Administration;
and Federal Aviation Administration. Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model. U.S. macroeconomic projections are based on the IHS Markit model of the U.S. Economy.
Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2018
2017 2018 2019 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017 2018 2019
Real Gross State Product (Billion $2009)
New England ................ 888 893 899 903 908 912 917 922 926 931 936 941 896 915 933
Middle Atlantic .............. 2,483 2,496 2,513 2,523 2,534 2,548 2,561 2,573 2,584 2,595 2,607 2,619 2,504 2,554 2,601
E. N. Central ................. 2,318 2,336 2,354 2,364 2,375 2,386 2,398 2,409 2,421 2,432 2,445 2,456 2,343 2,392 2,439
W. N. Central ................ 1,070 1,075 1,085 1,090 1,094 1,100 1,105 1,111 1,116 1,122 1,128 1,134 1,080 1,102 1,125
S. Atlantic ..................... 3,008 3,029 3,050 3,068 3,088 3,108 3,130 3,150 3,172 3,192 3,212 3,230 3,039 3,119 3,201
E. S. Central ................. 761 767 774 778 781 786 790 794 799 803 808 812 770 788 805
W. S. Central ................ 2,021 2,050 2,062 2,083 2,100 2,118 2,136 2,152 2,170 2,186 2,202 2,217 2,054 2,126 2,194
Mountain ....................... 1,082 1,092 1,103 1,111 1,120 1,127 1,136 1,144 1,154 1,162 1,171 1,179 1,097 1,132 1,167
Pacific ........................... 3,168 3,188 3,218 3,241 3,261 3,284 3,306 3,329 3,353 3,379 3,403 3,427 3,204 3,295 3,391
Industrial Output, Manufacturing (Index, Year 2012=100)
New England ................ 98.0 98.7 98.3 99.9 100.3 100.5 100.8 101.3 101.9 102.5 103.1 103.6 98.7 100.8 102.8
Middle Atlantic .............. 98.2 97.9 97.3 98.4 99.0 99.3 99.8 100.3 100.9 101.5 102.1 102.6 98.0 99.6 101.8
E. N. Central ................. 106.2 106.9 106.4 108.3 109.2 109.8 110.6 111.2 112.2 113.1 113.9 114.7 106.9 110.2 113.5
W. N. Central ................ 102.3 103.3 103.3 105.5 106.2 106.8 107.4 108.1 108.9 109.9 110.6 111.4 103.6 107.2 110.2
S. Atlantic ..................... 107.2 108.0 107.7 110.0 110.8 111.3 111.8 112.4 113.2 114.1 114.8 115.5 108.2 111.6 114.4
E. S. Central ................. 110.1 110.6 109.7 111.8 112.6 113.2 113.8 114.6 115.4 116.4 117.2 118.0 110.5 113.6 116.8
W. S. Central ................ 98.0 99.7 99.9 101.7 102.6 103.5 104.4 105.4 106.3 107.3 108.2 109.0 99.8 104.0 107.7
Mountain ....................... 108.3 109.1 108.7 110.8 111.6 112.3 112.9 113.6 114.5 115.5 116.3 117.1 109.2 112.6 115.9
Pacific ........................... 103.7 104.3 103.6 105.6 106.4 107.0 107.7 108.5 109.3 110.2 111.0 111.7 104.3 107.4 110.5
Real Personal Income (Billion $2009)
New England ................ 774 776 778 781 786 792 798 804 811 816 822 827 777 795 819
Middle Atlantic .............. 1,965 1,976 1,984 1,990 2,001 2,016 2,030 2,043 2,060 2,071 2,084 2,097 1,979 2,022 2,078
E. N. Central ................. 2,107 2,109 2,115 2,125 2,139 2,156 2,172 2,186 2,205 2,219 2,233 2,248 2,114 2,163 2,226
W. N. Central ................ 989 993 994 999 1,007 1,017 1,026 1,034 1,044 1,053 1,062 1,070 994 1,021 1,057
S. Atlantic ..................... 2,776 2,787 2,796 2,807 2,832 2,859 2,885 2,910 2,942 2,966 2,991 3,016 2,792 2,872 2,979
E. S. Central ................. 778 780 782 784 790 797 803 809 817 822 828 834 781 800 825
W. S. Central ................ 1,703 1,711 1,719 1,728 1,744 1,762 1,780 1,797 1,817 1,833 1,849 1,866 1,715 1,771 1,841
Mountain ....................... 976 981 983 988 996 1,007 1,017 1,027 1,039 1,048 1,058 1,067 982 1,012 1,053
Pacific ........................... 2,397 2,425 2,432 2,445 2,464 2,487 2,509 2,532 2,557 2,578 2,599 2,621 2,425 2,498 2,589
Households (Thousands)
New England ................ 5,859 5,868 5,888 5,897 5,908 5,920 5,930 5,942 5,956 5,968 5,980 5,990 5,897 5,942 5,990
Middle Atlantic .............. 15,899 15,915 15,967 15,983 16,009 16,035 16,061 16,090 16,121 16,148 16,175 16,201 15,983 16,090 16,201
E. N. Central ................. 18,823 18,840 18,900 18,919 18,951 18,990 19,025 19,062 19,097 19,132 19,169 19,205 18,919 19,062 19,205
W. N. Central ................ 8,518 8,536 8,574 8,595 8,623 8,654 8,680 8,706 8,732 8,757 8,782 8,807 8,595 8,706 8,807
S. Atlantic ..................... 25,184 25,275 25,434 25,533 25,643 25,757 25,864 25,973 26,087 26,192 26,294 26,394 25,533 25,973 26,394
E. S. Central ................. 7,602 7,617 7,649 7,666 7,688 7,712 7,733 7,755 7,779 7,802 7,824 7,846 7,666 7,755 7,846
W. S. Central ................ 14,579 14,625 14,704 14,751 14,806 14,865 14,926 14,992 15,059 15,124 15,189 15,252 14,751 14,992 15,252
Mountain ....................... 9,036 9,074 9,132 9,173 9,220 9,269 9,316 9,363 9,412 9,458 9,503 9,548 9,173 9,363 9,548
Pacific ........................... 18,697 18,753 18,846 18,898 18,960 19,025 19,089 19,151 19,217 19,277 19,338 19,395 18,898 19,151 19,395
Total Non-farm Employment (Millions)
New England ................ 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.5 7.5
Middle Atlantic .............. 19.4 19.5 19.5 19.6 19.6 19.7 19.7 19.8 19.8 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.5 19.7 19.9
E. N. Central ................. 21.9 21.9 22.0 22.0 22.1 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.3 22.4 22.4 22.5 21.9 22.2 22.4
W. N. Central ................ 10.6 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.7 10.8 10.9
S. Atlantic ..................... 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 28.2 28.7 29.2
E. S. Central ................. 8.0 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.1 8.2 8.3
W. S. Central ................ 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.9 17.9 17.1 17.5 17.8
Mountain ....................... 10.4 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.7 10.8 10.8 10.9 10.9 11.0 10.5 10.7 10.9
Pacific ........................... 22.7 22.8 22.9 23.0 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 23.5 23.6 23.7 23.7 22.8 23.3 23.6
- = no data available
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Macroeconomic projections are based on the IHS Markit model of the U.S. Economy.
Table 9c. U.S. Regional Weather Data
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2018
2017 2018 2019 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017 2018 2019
Heating Degree Days
New England ................. 2,987 804 92 2,151 3,198 874 132 2,163 3,128 866 132 2,163 6,034 6,366 6,288
Middle Atlantic ............... 2,658 601 73 1,990 2,994 700 92 1,985 2,920 703 92 1,985 5,322 5,771 5,699
E. N. Central .................. 2,692 628 106 2,248 3,188 741 133 2,223 3,139 743 133 2,223 5,673 6,285 6,238
W. N. Central ................ 2,811 662 138 2,361 3,276 706 162 2,400 3,220 706 162 2,401 5,972 6,544 6,489
South Atlantic ................ 1,148 125 15 940 1,488 196 15 980 1,433 204 15 979 2,228 2,679 2,631
E. S. Central .................. 1,375 154 24 1,272 1,946 248 22 1,305 1,827 257 22 1,306 2,826 3,522 3,412
W. S. Central ................. 772 65 4 725 1,214 74 4 784 1,120 80 4 784 1,565 2,078 1,989
Mountain ........................ 2,056 695 153 1,647 2,080 676 143 1,832 2,185 672 143 1,831 4,552 4,731 4,831
Pacific ............................ 1,562 534 69 1,022 1,385 606 99 1,221 1,524 599 99 1,221 3,187 3,310 3,444
U.S. Average ............. 1,859 428 65 1,468 2,138 493 79 1,529 2,113 494 79 1,527 3,820 4,239 4,213
Heating Degree Days, Prior 10-year Average
New England ................. 3,201 831 122 2,125 3,172 818 119 2,119 3,181 817 117 2,106 6,279 6,228 6,221
Middle Atlantic ............... 2,983 661 81 1,941 2,947 646 81 1,948 2,961 645 81 1,933 5,665 5,622 5,621
E. N. Central .................. 3,254 701 114 2,197 3,209 692 117 2,209 3,194 689 119 2,185 6,267 6,227 6,187
W. N. Central ................ 3,302 707 142 2,380 3,264 705 144 2,377 3,240 690 144 2,357 6,531 6,489 6,432
South Atlantic ................ 1,502 188 12 966 1,476 177 12 973 1,485 174 13 964 2,667 2,638 2,636
E. S. Central .................. 1,906 231 16 1,287 1,868 217 18 1,300 1,875 214 19 1,288 3,440 3,403 3,395
W. S. Central ................. 1,227 88 4 799 1,181 80 4 799 1,185 78 4 793 2,119 2,065 2,060
Mountain ........................ 2,216 734 142 1,862 2,194 737 144 1,840 2,160 722 141 1,842 4,954 4,915 4,865
Pacific ............................ 1,462 598 89 1,205 1,465 593 84 1,180 1,439 588 84 1,184 3,354 3,322 3,296
U.S. Average ............. 2,192 487 71 1,527 2,160 478 71 1,523 2,152 473 71 1,512 4,277 4,232 4,207
Cooling Degree Days
New England ................. 0 75 364 11 0 80 398 1 0 80 398 1 451 480 480
Middle Atlantic ............... 0 139 500 22 0 148 516 4 0 148 516 4 661 668 668
E. N. Central .................. 1 211 479 15 0 210 515 6 0 210 515 6 706 732 732
W. N. Central ................ 9 264 624 14 3 261 656 10 3 261 655 10 911 930 929
South Atlantic ................ 158 668 1,153 261 110 642 1,137 226 117 639 1,138 226 2,240 2,115 2,120
E. S. Central .................. 65 480 965 73 22 508 1,022 64 27 504 1,021 63 1,584 1,615 1,616
W. S. Central ................. 214 829 1,457 216 81 898 1,508 201 94 889 1,509 201 2,716 2,689 2,693
Mountain ........................ 36 467 918 119 19 433 931 76 19 433 932 76 1,539 1,458 1,459
Pacific ............................ 30 218 700 98 28 167 567 58 28 167 566 58 1,046 819 819
U.S. Average ............. 70 401 837 114 39 397 835 91 43 396 836 91 1,422 1,362 1,366
Cooling Degree Days, Prior 10-year Average
New England ................. 0 81 433 1 0 81 433 1 0 79 437 1 515 515 517
Middle Atlantic ............... 0 169 566 6 0 166 566 5 0 163 570 6 741 738 738
E. N. Central .................. 3 234 542 8 3 228 532 7 3 230 535 7 788 770 775
W. N. Central ................ 7 281 672 12 7 277 659 11 7 280 666 12 973 953 965
South Atlantic ................ 117 666 1,167 230 119 675 1,160 227 118 675 1,166 233 2,179 2,181 2,192
E. S. Central .................. 33 544 1,056 65 34 539 1,031 63 34 540 1,035 65 1,698 1,667 1,675
W. S. Central ................. 90 876 1,527 205 100 887 1,532 204 99 887 1,546 208 2,698 2,722 2,741
Mountain ........................ 23 424 930 81 24 426 922 84 25 431 925 83 1,458 1,456 1,463
Pacific ............................ 30 180 608 74 30 185 621 78 30 183 615 75 892 914 904
U.S. Average ............. 43 405 857 94 45 408 855 94 45 409 860 96 1,399 1,402 1,410
- = no data available
Notes: Regional degree days for each period are calculated by EIA as contemporaneous period population-weighted averages of
state degree day data published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
See Change in Regional and U.S. Degree-Day Calculations (http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/special/pdf/2012_sp_04.pdf) for more information.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions. See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.gov/tools/glossary/) for a list of states in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA).
Projections: Based on forecasts by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pacdir/DDdir/NHOME3.shtml).
Appendix
This appendix is prepared in fulfillment of section 1245(d)(4)(A) of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal
Year 2012, as amended. The law requires the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical
agency within the U.S. Department of Energy, to submit to Congress a report on the availability and price of petroleum and
petroleum products produced in countries other than Iran in the two-month period preceding the submission of the
report. By law, EIA’s data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S.
Government. The data in this appendix, therefore, should not be construed as representing those of the U.S. Department
of Energy or other federal agencies.
EIA consulted with the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the U.S. Department of State, and the intelligence community in
the process of developing the NDAA report, which was previously published as a stand-alone report. Detailed background
and contextual information not repeated here can be found in early editions of the NDAA report.
Petroleum and Petroleum Products Produced and Consumed in Countries Other Than Iran (million barrels per day)
Production (d) 91.8 92.4 92.1 91.2 90.1
Consumption (d) 95.3 94.6 94.9 93.3 91.4
Production minus Consumption -3.5 -2.1 -2.8 -2.1 -1.3
World Inventory Net Withdrawals Including Iran 0.9 -0.4 0.3 -0.3 -0.6
Estimated OECD Inventory Level (e) (million barrels) 2,870 2,865 2,867 3,008 2,842
OPEC Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity (f) 2.1 2.0 2.1 1.5 1.6
Note: The term “petroleum and other liquids” encompasses crude oil, lease condensate, natural gas liquids, biofuels, coal-to-liquids, gas-to-liquids, and refinery
processing gains, which are important to consider in concert due to the inter-related supply, demand, and price dynamics of petroleum, petroleum products, and
related fuels.
(a) Production includes crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas liquids, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.
(b) Consumption of petroleum by the OECD countries is synonymous with “products supplied," defined in the glossary of the EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly,
DOE/EIA-0109. Consumption of petroleum by the non-OECD countries is "apparent consumption," which includes internal consumption, refinery fuel, and loss, and
bunkering.
(c) Biofuels production and consumption are based on EIA estimates as published in the International Energy Statistics. Biofuels production in the third quarter
tends to be at its highest level in the year as ethanol production in Brazil reaches its seasonal peak and is typically lowest in the first quarter as seasonal production
falls in the South/South-Central region of Brazil.
(d) Global production of petroleum and petroleum products outside of Iran is derived by subtracting biofuels production and Iran liquid fuels production from global
liquid fuels production. The same method is used to calculate global consumption outside of Iran.
(e) Estimated inventory level is for OECD countries only.
(f) EIA defines surplus oil production capacity as potential oil production that could be brought online within 30 days and sustained for at least 90 days, consistent
with sound business practices. This does not include oil production increases that could not be sustained without degrading the future production capacity of a
field.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Brent Front Month Futures Price ($ per barrel) 64.09 69.08 66.65 55.21 66.06
WTI Front Month Futures Price ($ per barrel) 57.95 63.66 60.87 52.38 61.71
Dubai Front Month Futures Price ($ per barrel) 61.49 66.41 64.01 53.20 63.38
Brent 1st - 13th Month Futures Spread ($ per barrel) 3.37 4.44 3.92 -2.04 -3.42
WTI 1st - 13th Month Futures Spread ($ per barrel) 2.44 4.16 3.32 -3.46 -2.04
RBOB Front Month Futures Price ($ per gallon) 1.72 1.86 1.79 1.58 1.89
Heating Oil Front Month Futures Price ($ per gallon) 1.95 2.08 2.01 1.65 1.93
RBOB - Brent Futures Crack Spread ($ per gallon) 0.19 0.21 0.20 0.26 0.31
Heating Oil - Brent Futures Crack Spread ($ per gallon) 0.42 0.43 0.43 0.34 0.36
(a) Brent refers to Brent crude oil traded on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).
(b) WTI refers to West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), owned by Chicago Mercantile Exchange
(CME) Group.
(c) RBOB refers to reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending traded on the NYMEX.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), and Dubai
Mercantile Exchange (DME).