Gas Scotia

Natural Gas Producers
Commodity Price Volatility Is High, but Equity Valuations

Global Equity Research
Remain Low
Daily Edge | Pre-market OUR TAKE: Positive. North American natural gas prices continued to move over the summer,
Monday, September 19, 2022
with the 120-month Henry Hub strip gaining >23% since late April 2022 (see Exhibit 3). While
natural gas prices have been volatile in the face of several recent market events (e.g., Freeport
Analyst Team Link to ScotiaView LNG shutdown, EPA turbine ruling, Nordstream pipeline shutdown, and speculation over a

Cameron Bean | Analyst US rail strike), they remain elevated and materially above the prices implied in the natural gas
Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada | 403-218-6786
equity valuations (see Exhibit 5). With the continued strength in long-term natural gas prices
Jessica Fu, CA, CFA | Senior Associate we have updated our net asset value (NAV) assumptions and commodity price scenarios,
Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada | 403-213-7349
resulting in a moderate increase to our average valuation price to US$3.80/mmBtu (from US
Rating Changes $3.50/mmBtu previously) and several target price increases. We have also made tweaks to
New Old
some of our other modeling and type curve assumptions (see Exhibit 1 for summary details)
CR-T SO SP
and upgraded Crew Energy Inc. (CR-T) to Sector Outperform (see page 2 for our rationale).
Target Changes
New Old
AAV-T C$16.50 C$15.00 KEY POINTS
AR-N US$53.00 US$47.00
Choose your own commodity adventure. The current 120-month WTI strip is at ~US$64.50/
ARX-T C$29.00 C$27.00
bbl (down from ~US$71/bbl in late April; see Exhibit 2), while the current 120-month Henry
This report is intended for replaceme@bluematrix.com. Unauthorized distribution of this report is prohibited.
BIR-T C$16.00 C$14.00

CHK-Q US$131.00 US$111.00 Hub strip is at US$5.34/mmBtu (up from US$4.33/mmBtu in late April; see Exhibit 3). With
CR-T C$9.00 C$8.00 the increase to the Henry Hub Strip, we have updated our valuation scenarios and bumped
EQT-N US$71.00 US$55.00 our average Henry Hub price to $3.80/mmBtu (our WTI price remains at ~US$70/bbl). We
NFG-N US$93.00 US$89.00 have also made updates to some of our model and type curve assumptions, including crisping
NVA-T C$16.00 C$15.50 up our US company estimates and select Canadian forecasts for recent company updates,
POU-T C$37.00 C$34.00 and reviewing several of our type curves (including increasing our SWN Haynesville type curve
PEY-T C$25.00 C$24.00 assumptions). We also present several summary exhibits featuring our updated forecasts:
RRC-N US$37.00 US$36.00
SWN-N US$12.50 US$9.50
TPZ-T C$33.00 C$32.00
• Exhibit 4 shows our estimates for 2023E and 2024E oil and natural gas price sensitivities.
TOU-T C$116.00 C$106.00
Coverage Summary
• Exhibit 5 shows our estimates of the Henry Hub price implied in the current share prices
Rating 1-Yr. Target Return for our coverage group on three NAV measures. Notably, we estimate the group pricing in
AAV-T* SO C$16.50 54.6% just ~US$3.41/mmBtu on average based on our 10-year NAV measure.
AR-N* SP US$53.00 41.1%
ARX-T* SO C$29.00 56.4% • Exhibits 6 to 10 present five commodity price scenarios, with WTI ranging from US$50/bbl
BIR-T* SO C$16.00 49.3% to US$90/bbl in US$10/bbl increments and Henry Hub ranging from US$2.00/mmBtu to
CHK-Q* SP US$131.00 38.6%
US$6.00/mmBtu in US$1.00/mmBtu increments. At the low end, we see a stress test, with
CNX-N* SP US$25.00 49.5%
CR-T* SO C$9.00 60.4%
very few companies appearing viable under our current assumptions for capital allocation.
EQT-N* SO US$71.00 55.7% At the high end, we see a bonanza with the higher (financial and operating) leverage and
KEL-T* SO C$10.50 68.0% growth names screening the best (namely AR, CR, PEY, SWN, and SDE).
NFG-N* SO US$93.00 37.8%
NVA-T* SP C$16.00 44.7% • Exhibits 11 and 12 show cost structure comparisons for our combined North American
PEY-T* SO C$25.00 124.8% coverage group on current strip pricing.
POU-T* SP C$37.00 36.9%
RRC-N* SP US$37.00 25.7%
What the scenarios reveal. Across a range of commodity price scenarios, we see:
SDE-T* SO C$22.00 89.3%
SWN-N* SO US$12.50 73.4%
TOU-T* SO C$116.00 56.2% • PEY, AAV, TOU, and CR screening the best on Producing NAV, with BIR, EQT, and SWN
TPZ-T* SO C$33.00 63.2% joining the leaders at the higher price scenarios.
*Companies with pertinent revisions
• PEY, SDE, SWN, CR, and CNX screening the best on implied multiple valuation upside (i.e.,
potential upside to a ~6x EV/DACF multiple valuation).
• Overall, we see PEY and CR representing the deepest value in the Canadian group, with
SWN offering the deepest value in the US group.
• TOU, PEY, and SDE are our top picks in the Canadian group, with SWN and EQT as our top
picks in the US group.
Production: September 18, 2022, 22:23 ET. Dissemination: September 19, 2022, 06:28 ET.
For Reg AC Certification and important disclosures see Appendix A of this report. Analysts
employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in
the U.S. unless otherwise noted within this report.
Daily Edge | Pre-market

Exhibit
1 - North American Natural Gas and Montney Producer Pertinent Estimate Revisions
Canadian Listed (C$) US Listed (US$)
AAV ARX BIR CR KEL NVA POU PEY SDE TPZ TOU AR CHK CNX EQT NFG RRC SWN
Old $2.92 $5.52 $3.48 $2.11 $2.01 $3.71 $8.34 $5.07 $5.03 $2.49 $14.51 $3,644 $4,431 $1,468 $4,202 $1,222 $2,228 $3,417
2022E CFPS /
New $2.91 $5.52 $3.47 $2.13 $1.91 $3.71 $8.34 $5.03 $5.03 $2.49 $14.41 $3,425 $4,408 $1,371 $4,202 $1,199 $2,229 $3,469
EBITDA ($M)
Δ 0% 0% 0% 1% -5% 0% 0% -1% 0% 0% -1% -6% -1% -7% 0% -2% 0% 1%
Old $3.06 $6.18 $2.55 $2.02 $2.03 $4.23 $10.22 $5.55 $5.47 $2.56 $14.71 $3,543 $4,857 $1,168 $6,779 $1,285 $2,126 $3,943
2023E CFPS /
New $3.03 $6.18 $2.54 $2.07 $2.00 $4.19 $10.22 $5.55 $5.49 $2.56 $14.54 $3,443 $4,745 $1,221 $6,872 $1,390 $2,096 $4,153
EBITDA ($M)
Δ -1% 0% 0% 2% -2% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% -1% -3% -2% 5% 1% 8% -1% 5%
Old $17.85 $28.02 $15.62 $7.91 $16.07 $15.27 $39.20 $24.45 $21.88 $30.64 $122.32 $43.51 $110.59 $26.73 $56.46 $120.07 $33.66 $9.78
NAVPS New $19.59 $30.75 $18.93 $9.91 $16.23 $15.86 $43.26 $26.50 $23.76 $31.95 $134.60 $51.27 $137.57 $28.24 $70.88 $110.97 $36.34 $15.26
Δ 10% 10% 21% 25% 1% 4% 10% 8% 9% 4% 10% 18% 24% 6% 26% -8% 8% 56%
Old $15.00 $27.00 $14.00 $8.00 $10.50 $15.50 $34.00 $24.00 $22.00 $32.00 $106.00 $47.00 $111.00 $25.00 $55.00 $89.00 $36.00 $9.50
Target Price
New $16.50 $29.00 $16.00 $9.00 $10.50 $16.00 $37.00 $25.00 $22.00 $33.00 $116.00 $53.00 $131.00 $25.00 $71.00 $93.00 $37.00 $12.50
Δ 10% 7% 14% 13% 0% 3% 9% 4% 0% 3% 9% 13% 18% 0% 29% 4% 3% 32%
Old SO SO SO SP SO SP SP SO SO SO SO SP SP SP SO SO SP SO
Rating
New SO SO SO SO SO SP SP SO SO SO SO SP SP SP SO SO SP SO
Δ
Old None None None Spec None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Risk Rating
New None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Δ
Source: Company Reports; Scotiabank GBM Estimates.
Upgrading Crew to Sector Outperform

We have upgraded Crew to Sector Outperform and increased our target price to $9.00 per share. We
have also removed the speculative risk ranking from the stock due to the company’s much improved
financial outlook. While we are somewhat late on this call, we believe the stock remains undervalued
and see a good risk / return proposition in the name following the company's recent non-core asset
sale and partial note repurchase. Looking ahead, we see (1) results from the next five Groundbirch wells,
(2) results from the 11-27 UCR pad, and (3) further reduction or refinancing of the 2024 senior notes as
catalysts for the stock.
Operational success looks sustainable. CR has delivered a string of strong quarters while executing
on the two-year growth plan and materially reducing debt. We were skeptical of the plan, but the
company’s results through Q2/22 have proven us wrong. Our analysis of CR’s operating results shows
trailing 12-month capital efficiencies of ~$9,500/boe/d exiting Q2/22 – a significant improvement
versus the company’s previous long-term average at ~$15,000/boe/d. While we expect inflation to
chew into some of these cost improvements, we believe CR’s operational improvements are for real.
The company has delivered much stronger results from its recent West Septimus Ultra Condensate Rich
(UCR) wells, while its 2021 Groundbirch Montney wells have shown both strong initial production rates
and manageable decline profiles.
Impressive deleveraging. We expect CR to exit 2022 with net debt >70% below its exit 2021 level on
the back of operational outperformance, the recent sale of its Altares lands (see our note), and strong
commodity prices. With the company’s recent announcement of the redemption of ~$128M of its 2024
notes, we expect CR to reduce its annual interest expense by >$8M. Importantly, the company's rapid
deleveraging puts it in a position to potentially clear its remaining debt in 2023. Importantly, we see CR
maintaining a strong financial position at our lower commodity price scenarios, with continuing free
cash flow generation and deleveraging at US$60/bbl and US$3.00/mcf and a corporate break-even
(capex equals cash flow) around US$50/bbl and US$2.00/mmBtu (see Exhibit 6).
Desirable asset base in a seller’s market. The Canadian upstream M&A market has shifted over the last
several months, with the most recent deals executed at much higher valuations versus those realized in
2020 and 2021. We believe this trend will continue as several industry participants seek to bolster their
inventories, and we expect the evolving M&A market to drive valuation improvements for public market
companies with desirable asset bases and deep drilling inventories. In our view, CR should benefit from
this market environment, given its large Montney land position. The company owns >340 sections of
Northeast BC Montney rights holding >2,500 drilling locations (including >700 at Groundbirch) in lean,
liquids-rich, and condensate-rich natural gas plays. Notably, CR’s Groundbirch asset is proximal to the
inlet for the Coastal GasLink pipeline (and largely outside the Blueberry River First Nation claim area).

Global Equity Research 2

We
believe that both the asset quality and proximity could make CR a consolidation target for future
LNG supply.
Exhibit 2 - Long-Term Henry Hub Prices Have Continued to Rise Exhibit 3 - While Long-Term WTI Prices Have Stalled out and
Pulled Back
Source: FactSet; Scotiabank GBM.

Source: FactSet; Scotiabank GBM.
Exhibit 4 - 2023E (Left) and 2024E (Right) Cash Flow Sensitivities to WTI and Henry Hub Price Changes
Source: Company reports; Scotiabank GBM estimates.


Exhibit
5 - Henry Hub Price Implied in the Current Share Price (NAV Methodology)
Source: Company Reports; FactSet; Scotiabank GBM estimates.


Exhibit
6 - North American Natural Gas and Montney Producer Valuation Analysis: US$50/bbl WTI and US$2.00/mmBtu Henry Hub
EV/DACF3 FCFf Yield3 D/CF CFPS Growth 6x '23E DACF Producing NAV 5-Yr NAV 10-Yr NAV SOA NAV
Share TCR 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 6.0x P/Val Prod P/NAV 5Y P/NAV 10Y P/NAV SOA P/NAV
Company Ticker Price1 Yield2 (x) (x) (%) (%) (x) (x) (%) (%) Mult4 (x) NAV5 (x) NAV5 (x) NAV5 (x) NAV5 (x)
Advantage Energy Ltd. AAV $10.67 1.2% 7.4x 8.4x 0% -3% 0.4x 0.7x -38% -10% $8.58 1.24x $4.57 2.33x $5.29 2.02x $5.91 1.81x $8.09 1.32x
ARC Resources Ltd. ARX $18.89 4.1% 7.5x 7.8x 3% 2% 1.3x 1.5x -29% -2% $14.43 1.31x $0.12 153.94x $5.27 3.58x $8.45 2.23x $12.16 1.55x
Birchcliff Energy Ltd. BIR $11.13 7.0% 17.3x 17.5x -2% -1% 3.8x 5.5x -66% 2% $2.10 5.30x $0.28 40.04x $1.73 6.44x $2.61 4.26x $4.68 2.38x
Crew Energy Inc. CR $5.61 0.0% 6.8x 7.5x 1% -1% 1.2x 1.5x -44% -11% $4.84 1.16x $1.92 2.92x $1.61 3.49x $1.33 4.23x $1.79 3.13x
Kelt Exploration Ltd. KEL $6.25 0.0% 8.5x 8.4x -13% -11% 1.7x 2.7x -35% 9% $3.99 1.57x $1.00 6.22x $1.76 3.56x $2.11 2.96x $4.85 1.29x
NuVista Energy Ltd. NVA $11.06 0.4% 7.8x 8.3x -1% 1% 1.3x 1.5x -37% -7% $8.11 1.36x -$0.65 -17.05x $1.15 9.61x $2.15 5.14x $3.73 2.96x
Paramount Resources Ltd. POU $27.97 4.7% 7.6x 7.9x -1% -1% 1.3x 1.8x -29% 1% $21.02 1.33x $2.84 9.86x $7.04 3.97x $8.06 3.47x $11.54 2.42x
Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. PEY $11.43 5.9% 4.4x 6.1x 6% 1% 1.4x 2.2x -21% -26% $17.36 0.66x $5.72 2.00x $6.96 1.64x $7.89 1.45x $8.81 1.30x
Spartan Delta Corp. SDE $11.62 0.0% 6.4x 5.6x -3% 0% 1.3x 1.2x -37% 18% $10.71 1.09x $0.32 36.51x $2.65 4.39x $4.06 2.86x $6.90 1.68x
Tourmaline Oil Corp. TOU $78.86 3.6% 8.4x 10.4x 6% 2% 0.2x 0.3x -11% -19% $56.00 1.41x $31.46 2.51x $40.38 1.95x $46.21 1.71x $56.91 1.39x
Canadian E&P Median 2.4% 7.5x 8.1x 0% -1% 1.3x 1.5x -36% -4% 1.32x 4.57x 3.57x 2.91x 1.62x
Antero Resources Corporation AR $37.55 0.0% 27.2x 40.6x -2% -4% 7.2x 18.1x -80% -48% $1.27 29.48x -$1.35 -27.85x -$5.03 -7.47x -$7.44 -5.05x -$11.36 -3.31x
Chesapeake Energy Corporation CHK $100.58 1.8% 10.9x 22.0x -1% -5% 2.9x 8.2x -44% -52% $40.72 2.47x $1.87 53.74x -$21.18 -4.75x -$37.81 -2.66x -$49.48 -2.03x
CNX Resources Corporation CNX $16.72 2.8% 6.4x 6.4x 4% 4% 3.2x 3.2x -23% -1% $14.95 1.12x -$4.21 -3.97x -$5.68 -2.94x -$6.82 -2.45x -$10.62 -1.57x
EQT Corporation EQT $46.06 1.6% 10.6x 14.8x 2% 0% 3.2x 5.0x 0% -30% $18.91 2.44x -$1.09 -42.09x -$1.57 -29.25x -$1.84 -25.00x -$4.13 -11.16x
Range Resources Corporation RRC $29.69 1.8% 12.2x 15.6x 3% 1% 3.8x 5.4x -47% -25% $9.22 3.22x -$3.00 -9.90x -$5.48 -5.42x -$7.08 -4.19x -$13.12 -2.26x
Southwestern Energy Company SWN $7.21 0.6% 7.2x 8.9x -4% -6% 3.5x 4.8x -31% -15% $5.04 1.43x -$0.57 -12.68x -$3.88 -1.86x -$6.40 -1.13x -$10.47 -0.69x
US E&P Median 1.7% 10.7x 15.2x 1% -2% 3.4x 5.2x -37% -27% 2.45x -11.29x -5.08x -3.43x -2.15x
16x FCFf (TPZ) /
10x EBITDA (NFG) Producing NAV 5-Yr NAV 10-Yr NAV SOA NAV
Share TCR 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E x P/Val Prod P/NAV 5Y P/NAV 10Y P/NAV SOA P/NAV
Company Ticker Price Yield1 (x) (x) (%) (%) (x) (x) (%) (%) Mult4 (x) NAV5 (x) NAV5 (x) NAV5 (x) NAV5 (x)
Topaz Energy Corp. TPZ $20.95 6.4% 15.1x 14.6x 7% 7% 2.8x 3.3x -16% 8% $22.11 0.95x $6.02 3.48x $9.62 2.18x $12.49 1.68x $19.06 1.10x
National Fuel Gas Company NFG $68.88 2.7% 8.9x 11.0x 0% -2% 3.1x 4.5x -10% -22% $81.35 0.85x $18.46 3.73x $12.29 5.60x $8.47 8.13x $2.89 23.79x
Commodities 2023E 2024E
WTI (US$/bbl) $50.00 $50.00 1. Canadian company share prices and NAVs shown in C$ and US company share prices shown in US$;2. TCR (Total Cash Return) Yield includes cash dividends and
MSW (C$/bbl) $64.38 $64.38 allocations to share repurchases; 3. DACF and FCF net of ARO expenditures; 4. Share price implied by the multiple; 5. NAV calculated using current price scenario.
C5+ (C$/bbl) $66.44 $66.44
HH (US$/mmBtu) $2.00 $2.00
AECO (C$/mmBtu) $1.99 $1.99
FX (US$/C$) $0.73 $0.73
Source: Company reports; FactSet; Scotiabank GBM estimates.


Exhibit
Advantage Energy Ltd. AAV $10.67 4.6% 4.8x 4.5x 7% 5% 0.0x -0.1x -13% 5% $13.36 0.80x $6.23 1.71x $9.04 1.18x $11.10 0.96x $15.23 0.70x
ARC Resources Ltd. ARX $18.89 6.5% 5.2x 4.7x 8% 9% 0.7x 0.6x -11% 9% $22.37 0.84x $3.78 4.99x $11.68 1.62x $16.95 1.11x $23.12 0.82x
Birchcliff Energy Ltd. BIR $11.13 7.7% 8.1x 7.5x 4% 5% 1.0x 1.2x -40% 11% $7.88 1.41x $3.37 3.30x $7.03 1.58x $9.37 1.19x $13.59 0.82x
Crew Energy Inc. CR $5.61 0.0% 4.3x 4.0x 8% 8% 0.4x 0.1x -23% 3% $7.96 0.70x $3.74 1.50x $4.43 1.27x $4.91 1.14x $6.52 0.86x
Kelt Exploration Ltd. KEL $6.25 0.0% 5.4x 4.9x -8% -6% 0.7x 1.0x -12% 17% $7.03 0.89x $2.23 2.80x $4.91 1.27x $6.55 0.95x $11.49 0.54x
NuVista Energy Ltd. NVA $11.06 2.8% 4.6x 4.6x 7% 8% 0.4x 0.3x -7% -4% $14.77 0.75x $1.89 5.85x $5.75 1.92x $7.95 1.39x $10.97 1.01x
Paramount Resources Ltd. POU $27.97 5.8% 4.7x 4.6x 5% 7% 0.6x 0.6x -6% 5% $36.31 0.77x $7.70 3.63x $16.80 1.66x $21.55 1.30x $29.94 0.93x
Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. PEY $11.43 5.9% 3.3x 3.3x 13% 11% 0.9x 0.7x -5% -4% $23.59 0.48x $8.53 1.34x $13.02 0.88x $16.19 0.71x $19.44 0.59x
Spartan Delta Corp. SDE $11.62 1.0% 3.8x 3.0x 6% 10% 0.3x 0.1x -13% 18% $19.12 0.61x $3.31 3.51x $8.26 1.41x $11.61 1.00x $16.90 0.69x
Tourmaline Oil Corp. TOU $78.86 6.3% 6.3x 6.7x 9% 7% 0.1x 0.0x 5% -8% $75.20 1.05x $47.78 1.65x $66.54 1.19x $79.37 0.99x $103.02 0.77x
Canadian E&P Median 5.2% 4.8x 4.6x 7% 8% 0.5x 0.4x -11% 5% 0.78x 3.05x 1.34x 1.06x 0.79x
Antero Resources Corporation AR $37.55 1.3% 8.3x 10.4x 5% 2% 1.1x 1.4x -37% -21% $25.76 1.46x $8.95 4.19x $14.54 2.58x $17.82 2.11x $22.95 1.64x
Chesapeake Energy Corporation CHK $100.58 2.9% 7.1x 8.1x 4% 1% 1.5x 1.9x -23% -13% $81.74 1.23x $23.64 4.25x $32.54 3.09x $38.95 2.58x $55.12 1.82x
CNX Resources Corporation CNX $16.72 5.3% 5.3x 5.2x 7% 7% 2.6x 2.5x -12% 2% $20.25 0.83x -$2.14 -7.80x $2.00 8.35x $4.25 3.94x $11.37 1.47x
EQT Corporation EQT $46.06 2.9% 7.0x 6.7x 7% 8% 1.8x 1.5x 20% 4% $37.28 1.24x $13.56 3.40x $23.64 1.95x $30.75 1.50x $36.27 1.27x
Range Resources Corporation RRC $29.69 4.2% 7.8x 8.1x 7% 6% 2.0x 2.1x -27% -5% $20.80 1.43x $4.47 6.65x $8.17 3.64x $10.50 2.83x $14.36 2.07x
Southwestern Energy Company SWN $7.21 0.6% 4.8x 4.3x 2% 3% 2.1x 1.8x -8% 11% $10.06 0.72x $2.16 3.35x $3.15 2.29x $3.59 2.01x $4.28 1.69x
US E&P Median 2.9% 7.0x 7.4x 6% 5% 1.9x 1.9x -17% -1% 1.23x 3.80x 2.84x 2.34x 1.66x
16x FCFf (TPZ) /
Topaz Energy Corp. TPZ $20.95 6.4% 12.3x 11.7x 8% 8% 2.1x 2.3x -5% 8% $28.18 0.74x $7.30 2.87x $12.48 1.68x $16.63 1.26x $26.86 0.78x
National Fuel Gas Company NFG $68.88 2.7% 7.6x 8.1x 2% 1% 2.5x 2.9x 3% -10% $99.42 0.69x $29.18 2.36x $36.35 1.90x $42.30 1.63x $65.05 1.06x
C5+ (C$/bbl) $78.00 $78.00
HH (US$/mmBtu) $3.00 $3.00
AECO (C$/mmBtu) $3.00 $3.00
FX (US$/C$) $0.75 $0.75


Exhibit
Advantage Energy Ltd. AAV $10.67 7.9% 3.6x 3.4x 13% 10% -0.1x -0.2x 6% 1% $17.75 0.60x $7.54 1.42x $12.32 0.87x $15.74 0.68x $21.68 0.49x
ARC Resources Ltd. ARX $18.89 8.7% 3.9x 3.3x 13% 17% 0.4x 0.1x 5% 15% $29.81 0.63x $6.46 2.93x $17.04 1.11x $24.38 0.77x $33.01 0.57x
Birchcliff Energy Ltd. BIR $11.13 8.6% 5.1x 4.9x 10% 11% 0.3x 0.2x -21% 3% $13.22 0.84x $5.76 1.93x $11.49 0.97x $15.20 0.73x $21.41 0.52x
Crew Energy Inc. CR $5.61 0.0% 3.1x 2.5x 15% 20% 0.0x -0.4x -7% 9% $10.80 0.52x $5.19 1.08x $6.98 0.80x $8.30 0.68x $11.14 0.50x
Kelt Exploration Ltd. KEL $6.25 0.0% 4.0x 3.8x -3% -3% 0.3x 0.4x 6% 8% $9.71 0.64x $3.17 1.97x $7.78 0.80x $10.72 0.58x $17.80 0.35x
NuVista Energy Ltd. NVA $11.06 6.1% 3.3x 3.2x 14% 16% 0.1x -0.1x 12% -6% $20.37 0.54x $3.97 2.78x $9.80 1.13x $13.15 0.84x $17.54 0.63x
Paramount Resources Ltd. POU $27.97 7.3% 3.4x 3.0x 13% 16% 0.2x 0.1x 11% 8% $50.69 0.55x $12.16 2.30x $26.12 1.07x $34.63 0.81x $47.75 0.59x
Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. PEY $11.43 5.9% 2.7x 2.1x 19% 25% 0.5x 0.1x 9% 9% $29.28 0.39x $11.11 1.03x $18.76 0.61x $24.11 0.47x $29.61 0.39x
Spartan Delta Corp. SDE $11.62 3.1% 2.6x 1.9x 15% 24% 0.0x -0.4x 5% 18% $26.53 0.44x $5.86 1.98x $13.39 0.87x $18.67 0.62x $26.29 0.44x
Tourmaline Oil Corp. TOU $78.86 8.9% 5.1x 5.0x 13% 12% 0.0x -0.2x 18% -1% $92.80 0.85x $62.84 1.25x $91.03 0.87x $110.61 0.71x $146.41 0.54x
Canadian E&P Median 6.7% 3.5x 3.2x 13% 16% 0.2x 0.0x 6% 8% 0.58x 1.95x 0.87x 0.70x 0.51x
Antero Resources Corporation AR $37.55 4.1% 4.5x 5.2x 15% 11% 0.2x 0.2x -4% -15% $50.34 0.75x $18.11 2.07x $33.35 1.13x $42.56 0.88x $56.87 0.66x
Chesapeake Energy Corporation CHK $100.58 6.5% 4.8x 4.6x 10% 9% 0.8x 0.7x -3% 1% $131.92 0.76x $44.30 2.27x $84.37 1.19x $113.10 0.89x $156.89 0.64x
CNX Resources Corporation CNX $16.72 7.9% 4.6x 4.2x 10% 10% 2.1x 1.9x -2% 5% $25.76 0.65x -$0.08 -207.87x $10.00 1.67x $15.80 1.06x $34.13 0.49x
Range Resources Corporation RRC $29.69 6.9% 5.3x 4.8x 13% 14% 1.1x 0.9x -5% 6% $34.81 0.85x $11.70 2.54x $21.67 1.37x $28.01 1.06x $41.54 0.71x
Southwestern Energy Company SWN $7.21 0.6% 3.5x 2.6x 8% 16% 1.3x 0.8x 14% 27% $15.21 0.47x $4.71 1.53x $9.88 0.73x $13.16 0.55x $18.33 0.39x
US E&P Median 5.9% 4.5x 4.4x 11% 12% 1.0x 0.7x -3% 6% 0.73x 1.82x 1.16x 0.89x 0.61x
16x FCFf (TPZ) /
Topaz Energy Corp. TPZ $20.95 6.4% 10.4x 9.8x 9% 10% 1.7x 1.7x 5% 8% $33.77 0.62x $8.37 2.50x $14.96 1.40x $20.25 1.03x $33.89 0.62x
National Fuel Gas Company NFG $68.88 2.7% 6.5x 6.1x 4% 4% 2.0x 1.9x 18% 0% $120.71 0.57x $37.66 1.83x $58.42 1.18x $74.34 0.93x $125.65 0.55x
C5+ (C$/bbl) $88.96 $88.96
HH (US$/mmBtu) $4.00 $4.00
AECO (C$/mmBtu) $3.96 $3.96
FX (US$/C$) $0.77 $0.77


Exhibit
Advantage Energy Ltd. AAV $10.67 10.8% 2.9x 2.8x 19% 16% -0.2x -0.3x 22% -1% $21.55 0.50x $8.65 1.23x $15.10 0.71x $19.67 0.54x $27.14 0.39x
ARC Resources Ltd. ARX $18.89 10.5% 3.2x 2.4x 18% 26% 0.2x -0.1x 17% 22% $35.85 0.53x $8.74 2.16x $21.77 0.87x $31.02 0.61x $41.99 0.45x
Birchcliff Energy Ltd. BIR $11.13 9.5% 3.9x 3.7x 16% 17% -0.1x -0.2x -13% 2% $17.03 0.65x $7.87 1.41x $15.37 0.72x $20.24 0.55x $28.15 0.40x
Crew Energy Inc. CR $5.61 0.0% 2.4x 1.6x 24% 35% -0.2x -0.7x 6% 9% $13.49 0.42x $6.36 0.88x $9.19 0.61x $11.31 0.50x $15.30 0.37x
Kelt Exploration Ltd. KEL $6.25 0.0% 3.2x 3.1x 1% 0% 0.0x 0.0x 16% 5% $11.77 0.53x $3.93 1.59x $10.18 0.61x $14.27 0.44x $23.20 0.27x
NuVista Energy Ltd. NVA $11.06 8.9% 2.6x 2.3x 21% 26% -0.1x -0.4x 23% -2% $25.42 0.44x $5.75 1.92x $13.25 0.83x $17.58 0.63x $23.13 0.48x
Paramount Resources Ltd. POU $27.97 8.6% 2.6x 2.1x 21% 27% 0.0x -0.2x 24% 9% $64.33 0.43x $16.24 1.72x $33.86 0.83x $45.27 0.62x $62.19 0.45x
Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. PEY $11.43 5.9% 2.2x 1.4x 26% 44% 0.3x -0.2x 21% 18% $34.48 0.33x $13.50 0.85x $23.82 0.48x $31.02 0.37x $38.45 0.30x
Spartan Delta Corp. SDE $11.62 5.0% 2.0x 1.3x 26% 44% -0.2x -0.6x 17% 19% $33.19 0.35x $7.74 1.50x $17.46 0.67x $24.36 0.48x $33.96 0.34x
Tourmaline Oil Corp. TOU $78.86 11.5% 4.3x 4.0x 17% 17% -0.1x -0.2x 30% 3% $109.88 0.72x $76.78 1.03x $113.65 0.69x $139.49 0.57x $186.08 0.42x
Canadian E&P Median 8.7% 2.7x 2.3x 20% 26% -0.1x -0.2x 19% 7% 0.47x 1.46x 0.70x 0.55x 0.39x
Antero Resources Corporation AR $37.55 6.9% 2.9x 3.1x 26% 22% -0.1x -0.3x 22% -10% $75.69 0.50x $27.26 1.38x $51.89 0.72x $66.86 0.56x $90.10 0.42x
Chesapeake Energy Corporation CHK $100.58 11.1% 3.4x 3.0x 18% 19% 0.4x 0.2x 19% 6% $189.75 0.53x $65.32 1.54x $135.82 0.74x $186.36 0.54x $257.13 0.39x
CNX Resources Corporation CNX $16.72 10.7% 3.9x 3.5x 13% 14% 1.8x 1.5x 8% 8% $31.49 0.53x $1.84 9.07x $17.73 0.94x $26.99 0.62x $56.21 0.30x
Range Resources Corporation RRC $29.69 9.6% 3.9x 3.1x 19% 24% 0.7x 0.3x 11% 16% $48.40 0.61x $18.82 1.58x $34.90 0.85x $45.13 0.66x $67.99 0.44x
US E&P Median 8.7% 3.3x 3.0x 18% 23% 0.6x 0.3x 21% 12% 0.51x 1.46x 0.73x 0.55x 0.39x
16x FCFf (TPZ) /
C5+ (C$/bbl) $99.37 $99.37
HH (US$/mmBtu) $5.00 $5.00
AECO (C$/mmBtu) $4.87 $4.87
FX (US$/C$) $0.79 $0.79


Exhibit
Advantage Energy Ltd. AAV $10.67 12.9% 2.6x 2.3x 23% 22% -0.2x -0.4x 30% 5% $23.52 0.45x $9.37 1.14x $17.01 0.63x $22.40 0.48x $30.99 0.34x
ARC Resources Ltd. ARX $18.89 11.7% 2.9x 2.0x 22% 34% 0.1x -0.2x 24% 27% $40.19 0.47x $10.39 1.82x $25.12 0.75x $35.73 0.53x $48.45 0.39x
Birchcliff Energy Ltd. BIR $11.13 10.0% 3.4x 2.9x 19% 23% -0.2x -0.4x -11% 8% $19.20 0.58x $9.48 1.17x $18.25 0.61x $23.95 0.46x $33.10 0.34x
Crew Energy Inc. CR $5.61 0.0% 2.0x 1.4x 31% 45% -0.3x -0.9x 16% 3% $15.52 0.36x $7.20 0.78x $10.82 0.52x $13.54 0.41x $18.42 0.30x
Kelt Exploration Ltd. KEL $6.25 0.0% 2.9x 2.6x 3% 4% -0.1x -0.2x 21% 8% $12.91 0.48x $4.47 1.40x $11.91 0.52x $16.83 0.37x $27.11 0.23x
NuVista Energy Ltd. NVA $11.06 10.8% 2.2x 1.8x 28% 36% -0.2x -0.5x 32% 1% $29.31 0.38x $7.04 1.57x $15.70 0.70x $20.72 0.53x $27.10 0.41x
Paramount Resources Ltd. POU $27.97 9.5% 2.2x 1.7x 27% 38% -0.1x -0.4x 34% 11% $74.38 0.38x $19.14 1.46x $39.47 0.71x $52.97 0.53x $72.64 0.39x
Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. PEY $11.43 5.9% 1.9x 1.0x 31% 66% 0.2x -0.4x 31% 24% $38.29 0.30x $15.27 0.75x $27.55 0.41x $36.09 0.32x $44.91 0.25x
Spartan Delta Corp. SDE $11.62 6.4% 1.6x 1.0x 35% 61% -0.3x -0.7x 26% 16% $38.24 0.30x $9.10 1.28x $20.29 0.57x $28.29 0.41x $39.25 0.30x
Tourmaline Oil Corp. TOU $78.86 13.2% 3.8x 3.5x 20% 21% -0.1x -0.3x 39% 5% $123.61 0.64x $87.59 0.90x $131.03 0.60x $161.64 0.49x $216.27 0.36x
Canadian E&P Median 9.7% 2.4x 1.9x 25% 35% -0.1x -0.4x 28% 8% 0.42x 1.23x 0.61x 0.47x 0.34x
Antero Resources Corporation AR $37.55 9.8% 2.0x 1.9x 40% 39% -0.3x -0.5x 44% -5% $101.86 0.37x $36.38 1.03x $70.39 0.53x $91.14 0.41x $123.30 0.30x
Chesapeake Energy Corporation CHK $100.58 15.1% 2.7x 2.1x 25% 32% 0.2x 0.0x 36% 13% $239.51 0.42x $84.15 1.20x $185.02 0.54x $257.33 0.39x $355.03 0.28x
CNX Resources Corporation CNX $16.72 13.5% 3.4x 2.9x 16% 19% 1.5x 1.2x 17% 12% $37.46 0.45x $2.32 7.20x $23.99 0.70x $36.71 0.46x $76.79 0.22x
EQT Corporation EQT $46.06 10.3% 2.4x 1.6x 32% 50% 0.2x -0.3x 92% 21% $118.86 0.39x $60.46 0.76x $103.36 0.45x $133.35 0.35x $162.32 0.28x
Range Resources Corporation RRC $29.69 12.0% 3.2x 2.2x 25% 35% 0.4x 0.0x 24% 25% $60.41 0.49x $25.27 1.17x $47.44 0.63x $61.56 0.48x $93.73 0.32x
US E&P Median 11.2% 2.5x 2.0x 25% 37% 0.3x 0.0x 40% 17% 0.40x 1.10x 0.54x 0.40x 0.28x
16x FCFf (TPZ) /
C5+ (C$/bbl) $106.63 $106.63
HH (US$/mmBtu) $6.00 $6.00
AECO (C$/mmBtu) $5.60 $5.60
FX (US$/C$) $0.83 $0.83


Exhibit
11 - 2023 North American Natural Gas and Montney Producer Cash Flow Margins on Strip Pricing (Canadian Revenues Shown Net
of Royalties)
Source: Company reports; Bloomberg; FactSet; Scotiabank GBM estimates.


Exhibit
12 - 2024 North American Natural Gas and Montney Producer Cash Flow Margins on Strip Pricing (Canadian Revenues Shown
Net of Royalties)
Source: Company reports; Bloomberg; FactSet; Scotiabank GBM estimates.


Pertinent Data and Revisions

Price Rating 1-Yr. Target 1-Yr. Return
AAV-T C$10.67 SO C$16.50 54.6%
AR-N US$37.55 SP US$53.00 41.1%
ARX-T C$18.89 SO C$29.00 56.4%
BIR-T C$11.13 SO C$16.00 49.3%
CHK-Q US$100.58 SP US$131.00 38.6%
CNX-N US$16.72 SP US$25.00 49.5%
CR-T C$5.61 SO C$9.00 60.4%
EQT-N US$46.06 SO US$71.00 55.7%
KEL-T C$6.25 SO C$10.50 68.0%
NFG-N US$68.88 SO US$93.00 37.8%
NVA-T C$11.06 SP C$16.00 44.7%
PEY-T C$11.43 SO C$25.00 124.8%

POU-T C$27.97 SP C$37.00 36.9%
RRC-N US$29.69 SP US$37.00 25.7%
SDE-T C$11.62 SO C$22.00 89.3%
SWN-N US$7.21 SO US$12.50 73.4%
TOU-T C$78.86 SO C$116.00 56.2%
TPZ-T C$20.95 SO C$33.00 63.2%
Advantage Energy Ltd. (AAV-T; C$10.67)

Valuation: 30/20/50 weighting of: 5.0x our blended '22E/'23E DACF, 8% blended '22E/'23E FCFf yield,
and our Scenario Sum of the Assets NAV.
Key Risks: Oil and natural gas prices; drilling program success.
New Old
1-Yr. Target C$16.50 C$15.00
Key Data CFPS22E: C$2.91 CFPS22E: C$2.92
CFPS23E: C$3.03 CFPS23E: C$3.06
NAVPS: C$19.59 NAVPS: C$17.85
Antero Resources Corporation (AR-N; US$37.55)

Valuation: 30/20/50 Weighting of: 6.0x our Blended '22E/'23E DACF, 8% Blended '22E/'23E FCFf yield,
Key Risks: Commodity prices, midstream availability, and project timing.
New Old
1-Yr. Target US$53.00 US$47.00
Key Data EBITDA (M)22E: US$3,425 EBITDA (M)22E: US$3,644
EBITDA (M)23E: US$3,443 EBITDA (M)23E: US$3,543
NAVPS: US$51.27 NAVPS: US$43.51
ARC Resources Ltd. (ARX-T; C$18.89)

New Old
1-Yr. Target C$29.00 C$27.00
Key Data NAVPS: C$30.75 NAVPS: C$28.02



Birchcliff Energy Ltd. (BIR-T; C$11.13)
New Old
1-Yr. Target C$16.00 C$14.00
CFPS23E: C$2.54 CFPS23E: C$2.55
Chesapeake Energy Corporation (CHK-Q; US$100.58)

New Old
1-Yr. Target US$131.00 US$111.00
CNX Resources Corporation (CNX-N; US$16.72)

New Old
Crew Energy Inc. (CR-T; C$5.61)

New Old
Rating SO SP
1-Yr. Target C$9.00 C$8.00
CFPS23E: C$2.07 CFPS23E: C$2.02
EQT Corporation (EQT-N; US$46.06)
Key Risks: Commodity prices, midstream availability, and project timing and execution.
New Old



Kelt Exploration Ltd. (KEL-T; C$6.25)
New Old
CFPS23E: C$2.00 CFPS23E: C$2.03
National Fuel Gas Co. (NFG-N; US$68.88)

New Old
NAVPS: 110.97 NAVPS: 120.07
NuVista Energy Ltd. (NVA-T; C$11.06)

New Old
1-Yr. Target C$16.00 C$15.50

Paramount Resources Ltd. (POU-T; C$27.97)

New Old
1-Yr. Target C$37.00 C$34.00
Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. (PEY-T; C$11.43)

Key Risks: Crude oil and natural gas prices; CAD/USD exchange rate; drilling program success.
New Old
1-Yr. Target C$25.00 C$24.00
Range Resources Corp. (RRC-N; US$29.69)

New Old
NAVPS: 36.34 NAVPS: 33.66
Southwestern Energy Company (SWN-N; US$7.21)

New Old
NAVPS: 15.26 NAVPS: 9.78



Spartan Delta Corp. (SDE-T; C$11.62)
Key Risks: Drilling and completion risk, commodity price risk, acquisition risk, market liquidity risk, ARO
risk, and regulatory risk.
New Old
Topaz Energy Corp. (TPZ-T; C$20.95)

New Old
1-Yr. Target C$33.00 C$32.00
Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU-T; C$78.86)

Key Risks: Oil and natural gas prices; Drilling program success; Gas processing facility constraints.
New Old
1-Yr. Target C$116.00 C$106.00
CFPS23E: C$14.54 CFPS23E: C$14.71
NAVPS: C$134.60 NAVPS: C$122.32


Appendix A: Important Disclosures
Company Disclosures (see legend below)*

Advantage Energy Ltd. V0185
Antero Resources Corporation I, O3, O4
Birchcliff Energy Ltd. O3
EQT Corporation L, N2
Topaz Energy Corp. I
Tourmaline Oil Corp. O3, V0173
I, Cameron Bean, certify that (1) the views expressed in this report in connection with securities or issuers that I analyze accurately reflect my
personal views and (2) no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views
expressed by me in this report.
This document has been prepared by Research Analysts employed by The Bank of Nova Scotia and/or its affiliates. The Bank of Nova Scotia,
its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as "Scotiabank." "Scotiabank" together with "Global Banking and Markets"
is the marketing name of the global corporate and investment banking and capital markets business of The Bank of Nova Scotia and its
affiliates. Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets produces research reports under a single marketing identity referred to as "globally
branded research" under U.S. rules. This research is produced on a single global research platform with one set of rules which meet the
most stringent standards set by regulators in the various jurisdictions in which the research reports are produced. In addition, the Research
Analysts who produce the research reports, regardless of location, are subject to one set of policies designed to meet the most stringent
rules established by regulators in the various jurisdictions where the research reports are produced.
Scotiabank relies on information barriers to control the flow of non-public or proprietary information contained in one or more areas within
Scotiabank into other areas, units, groups or affiliates of Scotiabank. In addition, Scotiabank has implemented procedures to prevent
research independence being compromised by any interactions they may have with other business areas of The Bank of Nova Scotia. The
compensation of the Research Analyst who prepared this document is determined exclusively by Scotiabank Research Management and
senior management (not including investment or corporate banking).
Research Analyst compensation is not based on investment or corporate banking revenues; however, compensation may relate to the
revenues of Scotiabank as a whole, of which investment banking, corporate banking, sales and trading are a part. Scotiabank Research will
initiate, update and cease coverage solely at the discretion of Scotiabank Research Management. Scotiabank Research has independent
supervisory oversight and does not report to the corporate or investment banking functions of Scotiabank.
For Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets Research Analyst Standards and Disclosure Policies, please visit www.gbm.scotiabank.com/
disclosures.
For additional questions, please contact Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets Research, 4 King St W, 12th Flr, Toronto, Ontario, M5H 1A1.
Time of dissemination: September 19, 2022, 06:28 ET. Time of production: September 18, 2022, 22:23 ET. Note: Time of dissemination is
defined as the time at which the document was disseminated to clients. Time of production is defined as the time at which the Supervisory
Analyst approved the document.
*Legend
I Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. or its affiliates has received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 months.
L Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. has received compensation for non-investment banking services during the past 12 months.
N2 Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. had a non-investment banking securities-related services client relationship during the past 12 months.
O3 The Bank of Nova Scotia and its affiliates collectively have a net long position in excess of 0.5% of the total issued share capital of
the issuer.
O4 The Bank of Nova Scotia and its affiliates collectively have a net short position in excess of 0.5% of the total issued share capital of
the issuer.
V0173 Scotia Capital Inc. is acting as financial advisor to Tourmaline Oil Corp. in the announced agreement to acquire privately owned
Black Swan Energy Ltd.
V0185 Scotia Capital Inc. acted as advisor to Entropy Inc., a subsidiary of Advantage Energy Ltd., for financing in relation to the announced
$300 Million Investment Agreement with Brookfield Renewable.


Rating and Price Target History
Advantage Energy Ltd. (AAV-T) as of September 16, 2022 (in CAD)

06-27-2019 10-08-2019 04-07-2020 04-13-2020 01-14-2021 04-15-2021 07-15-2021 08-09-2021 10-14-2021 01-13-2022 03-08-2022
Price: 1.60 Price: 1.89 Price: 1.58 Price: 1.85 Price: 2.22 Price: 3.42 Price: 4.56 Price: 4.33 Price: 6.58 Price: 7.20 Price: 7.69
Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO
Target: 5.50 Target: 6.00 Target: 3.75 Target: 4.00 Target: 4.50 Target: 5.50 Target: 7.50 Target: 7.25 Target: 9.50 Target: 10.50 Target: 12.50
14
12
10
Price (CAD)
8
6
4
2
0
Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22
03-28-2022 04-18-2022 07-14-2022

Price: 8.45 Price: 10.90 Price: 8.80
Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO
Target: 13.00 Target: 13.50 Target: 15.00
*Represents the value(s) that changed.

Ratings Legend: FS=Focus Stock; SO=Sector Outperform; SP=Sector Perform; SU=Sector Underperform; T=Tender; UR=Under Review; CS=Coverage Suspended; DC=Discontinued Coverage
Source: Scotiabank GBM estimates; FactSet.
Antero Resources Corporation (AR-N) as of September 16, 2022 (in USD)

09-04-2019 09-23-2019 10-08-2019 01-14-2020 02-11-2020 04-07-2020 05-08-2020 06-15-2020 10-13-2020 11-13-2020 01-07-2021
Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP
50
40
Price (USD)
30
20
10
0
01-14-2021 03-05-2021 04-15-2021 06-01-2021 07-15-2021 10-14-2021 03-08-2022 04-18-2022 07-25-2022

Price: 7.28 Price: 9.88 Price: 9.52 Price: 13.45 Price: 14.06 Price: 19.58 Price: 26.05 Price: 36.28 Price: 39.17
Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP
Target: 7.50 Target: 9.50 Target: 11.00 Target: 12.00 Target: 16.00 Target: 22.00 Target: 26.00 Target: 38.00 Target: 47.00



Birchcliff Energy Ltd. (BIR-T) as of September 16, 2022 (in CAD)

06-27-2019 10-08-2019 04-07-2020 07-13-2020 10-13-2020 11-12-2020 01-14-2021 04-15-2021 07-15-2021 10-14-2021 03-08-2022
14
12
10
Price (CAD)
8
6
4
2
0
04-18-2022 07-14-2022
Price: 10.28 Price: 8.46
Rating: SO Rating: SO
Target: 13.00 Target: 14.00

CNX Resources Corporation (CNX-N) as of September 16, 2022 (in USD)

06-27-2019 10-08-2019 01-14-2020 04-07-2020 04-24-2020 06-15-2020 08-14-2020 02-04-2021 03-05-2021 04-15-2021 07-15-2021
25
20
Price (USD)
15
10
0
03-08-2022 04-18-2022
Price: 18.09 Price: 22.62
Rating: SP Rating: SP
Target: 17.00 Target: 25.00



Crew Energy Inc. (CR-T) as of September 16, 2022 (in CAD)

06-27-2019 01-14-2020 04-07-2020 07-13-2020 08-17-2020 01-14-2021 03-12-2021 04-15-2021 05-31-2021 07-15-2021 10-14-2021
7
6
5
Price (CAD)
4
3
2
1
0
01-13-2022 03-08-2022 04-18-2022 05-06-2022 07-14-2022 08-08-2022

Price: 3.22 Price: 3.99 Price: 5.55 Price: 5.18 Price: 4.34 Price: 5.29
Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP
Target: 4.50 Target: 6.00 Target: 6.50 Target: 7.00 Target: 7.50 Target: 8.00

EQT Corporation (EQT-N) as of September 16, 2022 (in USD)

07-29-2019 10-08-2019 01-14-2020 04-07-2020 04-24-2020 05-19-2020 06-15-2020 07-13-2020 10-13-2020 03-05-2021 04-15-2021
60
50
40
Price (USD)
30
20
10
0
06-01-2021 07-15-2021 10-14-2021 03-08-2022 04-18-2022 07-25-2022 09-07-2022

Price: 21.77 Price: 19.96 Price: 20.43 Price: 25.61 Price: 45.50 Price: 44.98 Price: 46.00
Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO
Target: 23.00 Target: 24.00 Target: 28.00 Target: 30.00 Target: 50.00 Target: 54.00 Target: 55.00



Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. (PEY-T) as of September 16, 2022 (in CAD)
06-27-2019 10-08-2019 01-14-2020 04-07-2020 05-13-2020 06-15-2020 11-12-2020 12-04-2020 01-14-2021 03-04-2021 04-15-2021
Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SO Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP
25
20
Price (CAD)
15
10
0
06-14-2021 07-15-2021 09-15-2021 10-14-2021 01-13-2022 03-08-2022 04-18-2022 07-14-2022

Price: 7.08 Price: 7.15 Price: 8.89 Price: 9.51 Price: 10.59 Price: 11.71 Price: 14.89 Price: 11.85
Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO
Target: 10.00 Target: 12.00 Target: 13.00 Target: 17.00 Target: 18.00 Target: 21.00 Target: 23.00 Target: 24.00

Southwestern Energy Company (SWN-N) as of September 16, 2022 (in USD)

06-27-2019 10-08-2019 01-14-2020 04-07-2020 05-08-2020 06-15-2020 10-13-2020 11-13-2020 01-14-2021 03-05-2021 04-15-2021
10
Price (USD)
6
0
07-15-2021 10-14-2021 01-13-2022 03-08-2022 04-18-2022 07-25-2022

Price: 5.03 Price: 5.17 Price: 4.80 Price: 5.60 Price: 8.48 Price: 7.19
Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SO
Target: 6.00 Target: 7.00 Target: 6.00 Target: 6.50 Target: 10.00 Target: 9.50

Spartan Delta Corp. (SDE-T) as of September 16, 2022 (in CAD)

10-19-2020 01-14-2021 04-15-2021 05-31-2021 07-15-2021 07-29-2021 10-14-2021 01-13-2022 03-08-2022 04-18-2022 07-14-2022
20
15
Price (CAD)
10
0



Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU-T) as of September 16, 2022 (in CAD)

06-27-2019 01-14-2020 04-07-2020 06-15-2020 07-13-2020 10-20-2020 11-05-2020 01-14-2021 03-11-2021 04-15-2021
Price: 16.69 Price: 15.25 Price: 9.49 Price: 12.14 Price: 12.55 Price: 17.80 Price: 18.89 Price: 20.98 Price: 26.24 Price: 24.04
Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO
Target: 23.00 Target: 21.00 Target: 16.00 Target: 23.00 Target: 24.00 Target: 30.00 Target: 32.00 Target: 35.00 Target: 38.00 Target: 40.00
100
80
Price (CAD)
60
40
20
0
05-06-2021 05-19-2021 05-31-2021 06-14-2021 07-15-2021 07-16-2021 10-14-2021 01-13-2022 03-08-2022 04-18-2022
Price: 28.64 Price: 29.39 Price: 29.45 Price: 32.63 Price: 33.96 Price: 33.57 Price: 44.68 Price: 44.13 Price: 52.02 Price: 65.83
Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO
Target: 41.00 Target: 42.00 Target: 43.00 Target: 47.00 Target: 57.00 Target: 59.00 Target: 76.00 Target: 77.00 Target: 87.00 Target: 98.00
07-14-2022
Price: 64.80
Rating: SO
Target: 106.00



Definition of Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets Equity Research Ratings

Scotiabank has a three-tiered rating system, with ratings of Sector Outperform, Sector Perform, and Sector Underperform. Each Research
Analyst assigns a rating that is relative to his or her coverage universe or an index identified by the Research Analyst that includes, but is not
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analyst. by the analyst.
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stocks covered by the analyst.
and/or operational risk, exceptionally low predictability of financial
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The stock is expected to underperform the average 12-month total
determination of the Speculative risk ranking.
return of the analyst’s coverage universe or an index identified by
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Focus Stock (FS)

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Ratings Distribution
As of August 31, 2022
Companies Rated Investment Banking Service Provided
in Each Category in the Last 12 Months
Rating Count Percentage Count Percentage
Sector Outperform 268 52% 77 29%
Sector Perform 228 45% 52 23%
Sector Underperform 16 3% 0 0%
For the purposes of the ratings distribution disclosure FINRA requires members who use a ratings system with terms different than
“buy,” “hold/neutral” and “sell,” to equate their own ratings into these categories. Our Sector Outperform, Sector Perform, and Sector
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Natural Gas Producers

Commodity Price Volatility Is High, but Equity Valuations

BIR-T C$16.00 C$14.00

Source: Company Reports; Scotiabank GBM Estimates.

Upgrading Crew to Sector Outperform

Source: FactSet; Scotiabank GBM.

Source: Company reports; Scotiabank GBM estimates.

Source: Company Reports; FactSet; Scotiabank GBM estimates.

Source: Company reports; FactSet; Scotiabank GBM estimates.

Source: Company reports; FactSet; Scotiabank GBM estimates.

Source: Company reports; FactSet; Scotiabank GBM estimates.

Source: Company reports; FactSet; Scotiabank GBM estimates.

Source: Company reports; FactSet; Scotiabank GBM estimates.

Source: Company reports; Bloomberg; FactSet; Scotiabank GBM estimates.

Source: Company reports; Bloomberg; FactSet; Scotiabank GBM estimates.

Pertinent Data and Revisions

PEY-T C$11.43 SO C$25.00 124.8%

Advantage Energy Ltd. (AAV-T; C$10.67)

Antero Resources Corporation (AR-N; US$37.55)

ARC Resources Ltd. (ARX-T; C$18.89)

Chesapeake Energy Corporation (CHK-Q; US$100.58)

NAVPS: US$137.57 NAVPS: US$110.59

CNX Resources Corporation (CNX-N; US$16.72)

Crew Energy Inc. (CR-T; C$5.61)

National Fuel Gas Co. (NFG-N; US$68.88)

NuVista Energy Ltd. (NVA-T; C$11.06)

1-Yr. Target C$16.00 C$15.50

Paramount Resources Ltd. (POU-T; C$27.97)

Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. (PEY-T; C$11.43)

Range Resources Corp. (RRC-N; US$29.69)

Southwestern Energy Company (SWN-N; US$7.21)

Topaz Energy Corp. (TPZ-T; C$20.95)

Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU-T; C$78.86)

Appendix A: Important Disclosures

Company Disclosures (see legend below)*

Rating and Price Target History

Advantage Energy Ltd. (AAV-T) as of September 16, 2022 (in CAD)

03-28-2022 04-18-2022 07-14-2022

Target: 13.00 Target: 13.50 Target: 15.00

*Represents the value(s) that changed.

Antero Resources Corporation (AR-N) as of September 16, 2022 (in USD)

01-14-2021 03-05-2021 04-15-2021 06-01-2021 07-15-2021 10-14-2021 03-08-2022 04-18-2022 07-25-2022

*Represents the value(s) that changed.

Birchcliff Energy Ltd. (BIR-T) as of September 16, 2022 (in CAD)

*Represents the value(s) that changed.

CNX Resources Corporation (CNX-N) as of September 16, 2022 (in USD)

*Represents the value(s) that changed.

Crew Energy Inc. (CR-T) as of September 16, 2022 (in CAD)

01-13-2022 03-08-2022 04-18-2022 05-06-2022 07-14-2022 08-08-2022

*Represents the value(s) that changed.

EQT Corporation (EQT-N) as of September 16, 2022 (in USD)

06-01-2021 07-15-2021 10-14-2021 03-08-2022 04-18-2022 07-25-2022 09-07-2022

*Represents the value(s) that changed.

06-14-2021 07-15-2021 09-15-2021 10-14-2021 01-13-2022 03-08-2022 04-18-2022 07-14-2022

*Represents the value(s) that changed.

Southwestern Energy Company (SWN-N) as of September 16, 2022 (in USD)

07-15-2021 10-14-2021 01-13-2022 03-08-2022 04-18-2022 07-25-2022

*Represents the value(s) that changed.

Spartan Delta Corp. (SDE-T) as of September 16, 2022 (in CAD)

*Represents the value(s) that changed.

Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU-T) as of September 16, 2022 (in CAD)

*Represents the value(s) that changed.

Definition of Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets Equity Research Ratings

Sector Outperform (SO) Other Ratings