CIBC Q3 Preview

EQUITY RESEARCH Dennis Fong, P.Eng.
Jamie Kubik, CPA, CA
October 6, 2022 Earnings Revision

Cheryl Wu, CFA Chris Thompson, P.Geo.
Energy: Q3/22 Preview & Price Deck Update

Higher-for-longer Pricing Underpinned By Capital Discipline Jordan Tracey, P.Eng.
Our Conclusion
With this publication, we mark to market our commodity price deck and
provide a preview of Q3/22 earnings for the energy sector. Despite looming Sector:
recessionary concerns, we believe the set up for energy remains attractive Energy
for investors. The capital discipline in the sector has provided a boon to free
cash flow in this cycle, and has increased shareholder returns that we Key Changes
believe are here to stay. While our price targets remain grounded in modest
forward cash flow multiples, we do see room for multiple expansion for Price Target Changes
Canadian operators given the increased importance of energy security. We up to
Advantage Energy Ltd 
expect the pause in equities over the last month will prove to be a key buying up to
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. 
opportunity, and we have a more bullish near-term call on natural gas ahead up to
Enerplus Corporation 
of seasonal demand increasing and recommend investor exposure to the up to
Imperial Oil Limited 
commodity. Our top ideas include: ARX, CNQ, ERF, NVA, SDE, and TOU. up to
NuVista Energy Ltd. 
up to
Ovintiv Inc. 
Key Points
Paramount Resources Ltd.down
 to
Q3 preview: We sit below consensus on cash flow for most companies Precision Drilling Corporationdown
 to
given the timing of this preview and believe consensus estimates may not up to
SECURE Energy Services Inc. 
fully reflect Q3/22 commodity pricing at this juncture. We sit above Suncor Energy Inc.down
 to
consensus cash flow for FRU, IMO, and VET. We expect 2023 budget
announcements from ARX, BIR, KEL, NVA, PEY, and SDE. We expect
Q3/22 will feature wide variability in price realizations for gas producers, and
generally favour producers with limited AECO/Station 2 exposure.
Fundamentals for oil price remain relatively strong, but OPEC+
wildcard should be primary focus. Despite oil price weakness through Q3,
we remain relatively constructive on fundamentals given moderating
Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) releases and an eventual reversal to
refill withdrawn volumes, in addition to continued capital discipline from
producers. We also saw OPEC+ react to the oil price weakness, suggesting
the bloc could look to set a floor in pricing.
FIFO-LIFO and impacts to value of inventory could have significant
impact this quarter. Given the significant move lower in oil price, we
estimate FIFO-LIFO adjustments could have a material impact on earnings.
Oil price moved by ~US$30 per Bbl from the beginning of the quarter to the
end. Given the significant move in pricing, we believe this could drive
headwinds for SU and CVE and a tailwind for IMO.
Natural gas – bullish/bearish/bullish. We are more bullish than bearish in
the near term given North American storage is poised to enter winter below
five-year average levels, and we recommend investors have exposure to
natural gas-weighted stocks. We remain cautious on pricing through H2/23
and 2024 as supply should arrive. The LNG demand profile beyond 2025,
however, continues to look robust for North America, which should be
supportive for pricing.
All figures in Canadian dollars otherwise stated.

Please see "Price Target Calculation and Key Risks to Price Target" information on page 33-34.
For required regulatory disclosures please refer to "Important Disclosures" beginning on page 36.
Energy: Q3/22 Preview & Price Deck Update - October 6, 2022
Crude Oil Outlook

Fundamentals for oil price remain relatively strong, but continued OPEC+ production
quota adjustments could provide additional pricing support. The oil price fell ~US$30
through the quarter to ~$US80 WTI given concerns of a recession, additional supply from the
Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), demand weakness from China, tighter central bank
policies and rising interest rates. Despite these headwinds, we remain relatively constructive
on oil fundamentals given moderating SPR releases and an eventual reversal to refill
withdrawn volumes, in addition to continued capital discipline from producers. We also saw
OPEC+ react to the oil demand weakness, suggesting the bloc could look to set a floor in
pricing. In the medium term, a restart of Chinese demand as the country moves away from its
Covid-zero policy, EU embargoes on Russian oil that become effective in December, and
potential interruption of Russian supply as western sanctions have driven an exodus of
technology, capital and labour all provide a positive fundamental backstop for oil.
Given the rapidity of the forward curve moving lower, consensus crude oil pricing could come
down and put pressure on estimates for Q3/22 (and 2023). Further, headline-driven oil price
volatility pushes our focus to companies with integrated exposure and/or high-quality assets
which can provide the most consistent returns to shareholders and lower share price
volatility.
OECD inventories stand well below the five-year historical range. The world has
continued to drawdown physical volumes of both crude oil and refined products globally as
logistics of supply were stressed in the first half of this year by a rapid economic restart and
western sanctions on Russia. This lower inventory level could provide an upward bias to the
oil price and a buffer if demand growth slows dramatically. The area charts in Exhibit 1 show
OECD oil and oil products inventories.
Exhibit 1: Energy – OECD Oil And Oil Products Inventories, 2017 – Current
Crude Oil Kerosene / Jet Fuel
2,500 190
2,400 180
2,300 170
Inventory (MMBbl)
Inventory (MMBbl)
2,200 160
2,100 150
2,000 140
1,900 130
Feb
Feb
Jan
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Jan
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Oct
Nov
Dec
5-Yr Range (2017-2021) 2017-2021 Avg 2022 2021 5-Yr Range (2017-2021) 2017-2021 Avg 2022 2021
Gasoline Distillate Fuels
750
490
700
470
Inventory (MMBbl)
Inventory (MMBbl)
650
450
600
430
410 550
390 500
Feb
Jan
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Feb
Jan
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Source: JODI and CIBC World Markets Inc.
2
Refilling the SPR could tighten the physical markets for crude. To date, the DOE has
announced sales for ~175 MMBbl of the 180 MMBbl announced SPR release in March. U.S.
SPR inventory is currently at ~416 MMBbl, ~210 MMBbl (33%) below the five-year average.
In May, the U.S. DOE outlined a plan to refill 60 MMBbl for the SPR through a fixed-price bid
process for future deliveries. The DOE plans to call for bids this fall but set delivery after fiscal
year 2023. We believe this potentially provides additional demand that could offset lower
consumption levels if the global economy flirts with a recessionary environment. The area
chart in Exhibit 2 shows historical SPR crude and commercial crude inventories.
Exhibit 2: Energy – U.S. Crude Oil Inventories, 2000 – Current
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
MMBbl
600
400
200
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
SPR Crude Commercial Crude
Source: Bloomberg, U.S. EIA and CIBC World Markets Inc.
Balancing a jump in oil demand from China against demand destruction and OPEC+
supply decisions could now target supporting a certain price level. Concerns over
China’s economic weakness and an ongoing demand slowdown in OECD countries led to
downward revisions in global oil demand forecasts by IEA, OPEC and EIA in recent months.
The OPEC+ 33rd ministerial meeting on Oct 5 agreed to reduce the production quota by ~2
MMBbl/d, citing a degradation of demand and concerns of a global recession. The focus from
an OPEC+ perspective will remain on the production levels from countries relative to their
quota levels, suggesting actual supply reduction in the ~1 MMBbl/d range. The line chart in
Exhibit 3 highlights historical and estimated aggregate global demand and supply.
3
Exhibit 3: Energy – Global Oil Supply And Demand, 2019 – 2023E
105 25
100 20
Inventory Change (MMBbl/d)

Supply/Demand (MMBbl/d)
95 15
90 10
85 5
80 -
75 (5)
May-21
Aug-19
Dec-21
Sep-23
Mar-20
Feb-23
Jul-22
Jan-19
Oct-20
Inventory Change Supply Demand
Source: EIA, Energy Aspects and CIBC World Markets Inc.
Light oil differentials should narrow as incremental supply returns post-turnarounds,

offsetting SPR releases. SPR releases switched towards light sweet barrels in the middle of
the summer, widening Brent-WTI basis and narrowing the SCO-WTI premium. While light
sweet SPR releases will continue toward the end of November, the volumes are expected to
decrease from 30 MMBbl (Aug 16 to Sept 16), to 17 MMBbl (mid-Sept to end of Oct). The line
chart in Exhibit 4 highlights regional oil differentials along with SPR release timings.
Exhibit 4: Energy – Regional Oil Differentials, January 2022 – December 2022E
1 2 3 4 5 6
$14 45 SPR Release
$11 42
$8 39 1 30 MMBbl
$5 36 2 30 MMBbl
33 3 40.1 MMBbl
$2
Differential (US$/Bbl)
30 4 45 MMBbl
($1) 27 5 20 MMBbl
MMBbl
($4) 24 6 10 MMBbl
($7) 21
($10) 18
15
($13)
12 Sweet
($16) 9 Sour
($19) 6
($22) 3
($25) 0
May-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Jul-22
Jan-22
Jun-22
Apr-22
Oct-22
WTI-WCS Maya-WCS WTI-Maya SCO - WTI
Source: Bloomberg, DOE, and CIBC World Markets Inc.
4
We expect the Brent-WTI basis to narrow towards transportation costs of US$2 per Bbl to
US$3 per Bbl from the peak of ~US$13 per Bbl this summer. We expect SCO-WTI premium
to average US$5 per Bbl for Q4/22 and US$3 in 2023 as production returns after major
turnarounds from Syncrude and the Suncor Base Plant, which may offset the impact of
decreased supply from SPR releases.
Heavy oil differentials likely remain wider than historical levels given higher cost to
process, partially offset by global demand mix. WCS-WTI basis averaged US$20/Bbl
throughout the quarter. As oil sand supply ramps-up post-turnaround, coupled with higher
natural gas input costs, heavy differentials could remain relatively wider than historical norms.
The line chart in Exhibit 6 shows historical crude oil differentials. Factors we believe could
influence heavy oil pricing include:
1) A higher natural gas price, which has increased processing costs for heavy and sour
barrels;
2) Increased global competition from OPEC+ barrels returning to the market;
3) Completion of oil sands turnarounds, which could increase supply and approach egress
capacity;
4) Refinery outages (planned and unplanned), which could limit demand.
The area charts in Exhibit 5 highlight historical WTI-WCS and Maya-WCS differentials.
Exhibit 5: Energy – Historical Five-year WTI-WCS and Maya-WCS Basis, 2017 - 2022
WTI - WCS Maya - WCS

$0 $0
Maya-WCS Differential (US$/Bbl)
($5) ($5)
WTI-WCS Differential (US$/Bbl)
($10) ($10)
($15) ($15)
($20) ($20)
($25) ($25)
($30) ($30)
($35) ($35)
($40) ($40)
($45) ($45)
($50) ($50)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
5-Yr Range (2017-2021) 5-Yr Average (2017-2021) 5-Yr Range (2017-2021) 5-Yr Average (2017-2021)
2021 2022 2021 2022
Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.
Transportation costs could be elevated in Q3/22 given timing of the pullback in oil
price. We estimate condensate costs are generally lagged by one to one and a half months
as illustrated in the Exhibit 6 bar chart. This suggests oil sands and heavy oil-focused
companies could experience higher blending and diluent costs for the quarter. This could be
partially moderated given the relative pricing of butane (C4). We would highlight CVE, MEG
and IMO as companies that have elevated exposure to blending costs.
5
Exhibit 6: Energy – Average Condensate Pricing In Alberta, Q3/22
$105
$100
$95
US$/Bbl
$90
$85
$80
Q3 Average One Month Lag 1.5 Month Lag Two Month Lag
Despite a summer of strong refinery throughput, refined product inventory levels

remain towards the lower end of the five-year historical range. A combination of high
refinery throughput and moderating demand (as a reaction to elevated price at the pumps)
narrowed refined products spreads in June/July. Crack spreads are still 60% to 150% above
the five-year average. Unplanned outages, including BP’s 435 MBbl/d Whiting refinery and
BP/Cenovus’ 160 MBbl/d Toledo refinery, have pushed refined product spreads higher
recently. We highlight the historical utilization rate over the past five years in the line charts in
Exhibit 7.
Exhibit 7: Energy – Refinery Utilization In PADD II And PADD II, 2017 – Current
PADD II Refinery Utilization PADD III Refinery Utilization
100 100
90 90
Refinery Utilization (%)
Refinery Utilization (%)
80 80
70 70
60 60
50 50
40 40
Nov
Dec
Oct
Aug
Sep
Apr
Feb
Jan
Jun
May
Jul
Mar
Dec
Oct
Aug
Sep
Feb
Jan
Jun
May
Mar
Source: Bloomberg, EIA, and CIBC World Markets Inc.
Refined product demand could stay strong if we experience a colder-than-normal

winter. North American implied gasoline demand was curtailed by rising prices, averaging
8.7 MMBbl/d for Q3, below the five-year average of 9.4 MMBbl/d for the same period.
Refined product exports remained ~1 MMBbl/d above the five-year average through Q3/22 as
Europe continues to seek replacements to Russian supply. We expect diesel spreads to
remain strong as European demand remains consistent into the colder months and there is
lower supply in PADD II with the Toledo downtime. This could benefit companies with
Canadian refineries (IMO and SU). Area charts in Exhibit 8 show implied diesel and gasoline
demand as well as exports from North America.
6
Exhibit 8: Energy – Refined Products Supplied And Exports, 2015 – Current
Gasoline Product Supplied - 4wk Avg. 10.5 Gasoline Exports - 4wk Avg. 1,200
10.0 1,000
9.5
Million (B/D)
800
MBbl/d
9.0
600
8.5
8.0 400
7.5 200
5-Yr Range (2015-2019) 2015-19 Average 2021 2022 5-Yr Range (2015-2019) 2015-19 Average 2021 2022
Diesel Product Supplied - 4wk Avg. 5.0 Diesel Exports - 4wk Avg. 1,700
1,500
4.5
1,300
Million (B/D)
MBbl/d
4.0 1,100
900
3.5
700
3.0 500
5-Yr Range (2015-2019) 2015-19 Average 2021 2022 5-Yr Range (2015-2019) 2015-19 Average 2021 2022
Source: Bloomberg, EIA and CIBC World Markets Inc.
We estimate Q3/22 refining margin for Imperial Oil is ~$76/Bbl and for Suncor $69/Bbl, well
above the 2017-2019 average of ~$47/Bbl and ~$39/Bbl, respectively. CVE could also show
a significant change in downstream operating cash flow in Q3/22 after unplanned downtime
at Lima in Q1/22 and a planned turnaround at Toledo in Q2. The area charts in Exhibit 9
highlight the regional, Suncor and Imperial crack spreads from 2017 to present.
7
Exhibit 9: Energy – Downstream Crack Spread, 2017 – Present

GC321 ($/Bbl) NYH211 ($/Bbl)
90.00 90.00
80.00 80.00
70.00 70.00
60.00 60.00
50.00 50.00
$/Bbl
$/Bbl
40.00 40.00
30.00 30.00
20.00 20.00
10.00 10.00
- -
5-Yr Range (2017-2021) 5-Yr Avg (2017-2021) 2022 5-Yr Range (2017-2021) 5-Yr Avg (2017-2021) 2022
SU ($/Bbl) IMO ($/Bbl)
\
100.00 100.00
90.00 90.00
80.00 80.00
70.00 70.00
$/Bbl
$/Bbl
60.00 60.00
50.00 50.00
40.00 40.00
30.00 30.00
20.00 20.00
5-Yr Range (2017-2021) 5-Yr Avg (2017-2021) 2022 5-Yr Range (2017-2021) 5-Yr Avg (2017-2021) 2022
Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.
FIFO-LIFO adjustments to have a significant impact in this quarter. Given the significant
move lower in oil price, we estimate FIFO-LIFO adjustments could have a material impact on
earnings. The oil price moved by ~US$30 per Bbl from the beginning of the quarter to the
end. Depending on inventory levels for each of the integrated companies, we expect the
nature of purchased product accounting could move earnings by up to $800MM. We believe
this could drive headwinds for SU and CVE and a tailwind for IMO as compared to a flat
commodity price environment.
8
Natural Gas Outlook

Bullish, bearish, bullish. We are more bullish than bearish, but the H2/23 and 2024 time
frame is largely devoid of meaningful demand catalysts for North America, so we are careful
not to overshoot our expectations for price targets in the near term. In the near term, storage
inventories in North America are set to enter withdrawal season below five-year averages,
which is a bullish set up ahead of seasonal demand cycling higher. There is also visibility to
LNG demand being restored in full with Freeport back on line, and new projects at Calcasieu
Pass and Sabine Pass running at full capacity. The near-term wild card for the globe at this
point is winter weather, and whether or not supplies manage the forthcoming demand spike
without requiring outsized demand destruction. While weather forecasts for North America
thus far appear to show a mild start to winter, we sit above strip pricing for the next six
months. U.S. production growth has underwhelmed through H1/22, but it has started to arrive
in H2/22, and rig activity points to further growth on the way in 2023. We therefore continue to
see H2/23 and 2024 as being more a story of local supply growth without commensurate
demand growth, which we expect could see local prices adjust lower than what is implied by
strip. The demand profile for 2025 onwards however is unlike anything we have ever seen in
the North American market, which makes us bullish longer term.
AECO and Station 2 prices decided to take the summer off. The bar charts in Exhibit 10
include recent pricing for natural gas and liquids prices across the globe. Despite pricing
strength in the U.S., prices at Canadian hubs were extremely weak, with AECO basis
averaging US$5.07/Mcf below NYMEX, while Station 2 averaged US$5.78/Mcf below
NYMEX. This was due to strong gas production, pipeline maintenance, and pipeline
construction delays all converging at once, which drove local differentials very wide. We
believe this gets better through winter, but future pricing through summer could feature much
of the same. We have reshaped our expectations for Q3 pricing through 2023 and 2024 for
AECO and Station 2 to feature wider discounts.
Exhibit 10: Energy – Natural Gas And Liquids Pricing, September 2022
Q3/202 2 A vg . Curren t Q2/202 2 A vg . $70 .00
$12 .00
$60 .00
$10 .00
$50 .00
$8.00
$40 .00
US$/mmbtu
US$/Mcf
$6.00
$30 .00
$4.00
$20 .00
$2.00
$10 .00
$0.00
$0.00
Dawn O nt.
Ven tur a
Per mia n B asi n
PG& E Gate
Leid y
Station 2
Florida Ga s Zone 3
Housto n S hip Ch an
Chicago
Transco NY
Empress
Stanfield OR
AECO
Columbia Gas TCO
SoCal
Algo nquin
Sumas
Henry Hub
UK NB P
Netherland TTF
JK Mar ker
Inte rnational
West CDA East NE US Mid We st US Wester n US + Rockies Gul f Co ast US
CDA
AECO daily versus monthly pricing will be topical through Q3 earnings. Seasonal
maintenance on the Westcoast and NGTL systems, NGTL expansion delays, and cuts to
9
Producers can receive 5A or interruptible (IT) service overlapped for much of the third quarter, resulting in a congested
7A pricing, therefore the mix physical market. The result was that gas at AECO 5A (daily) and Station 2 intermittently
of exposure will matter in traded at sub-zero prices during Q3/22. This will drag Q3 cash flows for producers with more
Q3/22, with the quarterly exposure to 5A versus 7A, but Q4/22 is likely to see this delta normalize, and 5A could prove
average price for 5A
to be stronger than 7A. The line chart in Exhibit 11 shows daily prices for AECO 5A and 7A,
($4.16/Mcf) trading 28%
and the bar chart shows quarterly average prices for AECO 5A and 7A through 2022.
below 7A ($5.82/Mcf).
Exhibit 11: Energy – AECO 5A/7A Prices, Q1/22 – Q3/22
AECO Daily Prices Quarterly Average
$10 .00 $8.00
$9.00
$7.00
$8.00
$7.00 $6.00
AECO ($/Mcf )
$6.00
AECO ($/Mcf )
$5.00 $5.00
$4.00 $4.00
$3.00
$2.00 $3.00
$1.00
$2.00
$0.00
($1.00) $1.00
Apr -22
Oct-22
Aug -22
Sep -22
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-22
Jun-22
Mar-22
Feb-22
$0.00
Q1/22 Q2/22 Q3/22
5A 7A 5A 7A
Source: NGX and CIBC World Markets Inc.
AECO basis expected to improve in winter, but seasonal constraints are likely to
continue through summer months. While much depends on the level of volume growth
that occurs in the coming months, we believe winter basis will prove to be oversold at current
levels. We will see consumption rise through winter months, and could see production growth
moderate in response to the price volatility over the past month. The line charts in Exhibit 12
show the recent AECO futures strip and AECO-NYMEX Basis futures strip.
Exhibit 12: Energy – AECO Gas Futures And Differential Futures, 2021-2025E
AECO Gas Strip AECO-NYMEX Strip Differentials
$7.00 $-
$6.00
$(0.50)
AECO - NYMEX (US$/Mcf)
$5.00
$(1.00)
AECO ($/Mcf)
$4.00
$(1.50)
$3.00
$(2.00)
$2.00
$(2.50)
$1.00
$- $(3.00)
Oct-21
Apr-22
Oct-22
Apr-23
Oct-23
Apr-24
Oct-24
Apr-25
Oct-25
Jan-22
Jan-23
Jan-24
Jan-25
Jul-22
Jul-23
Jul-24
Jul-25
Oct-21
Apr-22
Oct-22
Apr-23
Oct-23
Apr-24
Oct-24
Apr-25
Oct-25
Jan-22
Jan-23
Jan-24
Jan-25
Jul-22
Jul-23
Jul-24
Jul-25
10/5/2021 4/5/2022 7/5/2022 10/4/2022 10/5/2021 4/5/2022 7/5/2022 10/4/2022
Western Canadian production growth is likely to remain at <5% levels, absent any new
pipeline infrastructure. The bar chart in Exhibit 13 includes our natural gas production
10
estimates for companies under coverage, which accounts for ~70% of WCSB total
production. Our forecasts demonstrate that local production is expected to grow by a modest
4% per year. While 4% production growth does not sound like much, our estimates suggest
an additional 900 MMcf/d of growth is expected over the next 24 months, which likely
translates into greater than 1 Bcf/d of growth from Western Canada when extrapolating to
producers (not shown in Exhibit 13). We believe this could continue to put pressure on
Western Canadian price hubs, particularly in summer months, and we have widened our
basis assumptions for Q3/23 and Q3/24.
Exhibit 13: Natural Gas Production Forecast For CIBC Coverage
14,000
12,000
Gas Production (MMcf/d)
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Q4/22 Q1/23 Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23 Q1/24 Q2/24 Q3/24 Q4/24
CIBC Coverage (CDA Only)
Source: CIBC World Markets Inc.
U.S. and Canadian production have been setting new records; if this trend continues,
we expect to see a balanced market by spring 2023. The line charts in Exhibit 14 show
production in the U.S. and Canada, demonstrating natural gas volumes are nearly at all-time
highs in both regions.
Exhibit 14: U.S. Dry Natural Gas Production And U.S. Natural Gas Days Of Storage Supply, 2012 - 2022
U.S. Dry Gas Production Canada Production (WCSB Field Receipts)
100 18.0
95 17.0
U.S Dry Gas Production (Bcf/d)
WCSB Field Receipts (Bcf/d)
90 16.0
85 15.0
80 14.0
75 13.0
70 12.0
65 11.0
60 10.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
5 Yr Range 2021 2020 5 Yr Range 2020 2021
5 Yr Avg. 2022 2022 5 Yr Avg.
Source: EIA, Platts and CIBC World Markets Inc.
11
The Haynesville has been U.S. gas production growth is likely to be led by plays situated closest to Tidewater.
leading in relative activity Northeast U.S. takeaway capacity has been effectively capped in recent years due to
and absolute production regulatory hurdles. The Permian and Haynesville are better suited for feeding LNG terminals
growth since 2020. in the U.S. gulf coast, and both plays have line of sight to additional capacity expansions to
meet the growing LNG demand profile. The line charts in Exhibit 15 show the change in gas
production and rig activity across the U.S. shale plays.
Exhibit 15: Energy – Change In Gas Production (left) And % Change In Active Rigs (right), Jan 2020 – Sep 2022
5.0 80%
Haynesville
Change in natural Gas Productin (Bc/f d)
Percentage Incrase / (Decrease) in Rigs

4.0 60%
Permian
3.0 40%
2.0 Appalachia 20%
1.0 Eagle Ford 0%
Bakken
0.0 (20% )
(1.0) (40% )
(2.0) (60% )
Niobrara
(3.0) (80% )
Anadarko
(4.0) (100 %)
Nov-20
Nov-21
Sep -20
Sep -21
Sep -22
May-20
May-21
May-22
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Mar-20
Mar-21
Mar-22
Nov-20
Nov-21
Sep -20
Sep -21
May-20
May-21
May-22
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Mar-20
Mar-21
Mar-22
Ana darko App alachia Bakken Eag le Ford Ana darko App alachia Bakken Eag le Ford
Haynesvill e Niobra ra Per mia n Haynesvill e Niobra ra Per mia n
Source: EIA DPR and CIBC World Markets Inc.
Days of supply nearing a ceiling in Canada. The line chart in Exhibit 16 shows the number
of days of natural gas storage for the U.S. and Canada from 2012 to 2022. Western Canadian
Storage is sitting 49 Bcf below the five-year average but given the number of coal to natural
gas conversions, we would not expect days of supply to return to pre-2020 levels. In the U.S.,
days of supply are similarly low given the lack of coal switching, driven by weak coal inventories
and high coal prices. We expect that both markets being at such historically low levels will drive
greater price volatility in the coming years.
Exhibit 16: Energy – U.S. And Canada Natural Gas Days Of Storage Supply, 2012 - 2022
U.S. Natural Gas Days of Storage Supply Canada Natural Gas Days of Storage Supply
70 140
U.S. Natural Gas Days of Storage Supply
Canada Natural Gas Days of Storage
60 120
50 100
40 80
30 60
20 40
10 20
- 0
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Source: EIA, Platts and CIBC World Markets Inc.
12
Although flows through the Storage levels in North America are tracking below the 5-year average, which should
Nord Stream pipelines have continue to be a stable source of demand ahead of withdrawal season. Both Western
been reduced to near zero Canada and U.S. storage levels have been refilling quickly though, with multiple weeks of
in recent months, the recent triple-digit builds in the L48 as a result of lower power burn, reduced LNG demand and
damage to the pipelines
stronger wind generation. European storage is currently at ~90% capacity and ahead of
ensures supplies will be
country level targets in many instances, but LNG will continue to be in high demand through
kept offline, and does raise
the winter months to ensure stocks do not enter injection season in the spring at dangerously
concerns about the risk to
other gas infrastructure.
low levels. As a result, we have seen a slight risk premium added to European benchmarks in
the past week. The line charts in Exhibit 17 show storage levels for Canada, the U.S., and
Europe.
Exhibit 17: Energy – Canada Natural Gas Storage, 2017-2022E

Western Canadian Natural Gas Storage Eastern Canadian Natural Gas Storage
600 350
500 300
Storage (Bcf )
Storage (Bcf )
250
400
200
300
150
200
100
100
50
0 0
Range 5 Yr. A vg 202 0 202 1 202 2 Range 5 Yr. A vg 202 0 202 1 202 2
U.S. Natural Gas Storage Europe Natural Gas Storage

4,500 4,000
4,000 3,500
3,500
3,000
3,000
Storage (Bcf )
Storage (Bcf )
2,500
2,500
2,000
2,000
1,500
1,500
1,000
1,000
500 500
0 0
5 Yr Ra nge 5 Year Avg. 202 1

202 0 202 2
202 0 202 2
Source: EIA, Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.
U.S. LNG buildout is continuing to demonstrate robust demand growth expected by

mid-decade. The area chart in Exhibit 18 includes the profile of future U.S., Canadian and
Mexico LNG projects, demonstrating a significant demand pull expected by mid-decade. We
continue to expect more project announcements by LNG facility developers for the balance of
the year, including but not limited to Lake Charles, Freeport LNG train 4, Texas LNG and the
Rio Grande, with an incremental capacity of 7.1 Bcf/d. We highlight Rio Grande phase 1 and
Lake Charles as two projects with the highest probability of a positive FID.
13
Exhibit 18: Energy – North America LNG Export Capacity And Export, 2016 – 2028E
35
30
LNG Export Capacity and Export (BCF/d)

25
20
15
10
0
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
Jul-24
Jul-25
Jul-26
Jul-27
Jul-28
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Jan-24
Jan-25
Jan-26
Jan-27
Jan-28
Sabine Pass Cove Point Corpus Christi Cameron
Freeport Elba Island Calcasieu Pass Golden Pass
Plaquemines Energia Costa Azul LNG Canada Rio Grande*
Lake Charles* Woodfibre LNG* US LNG Exports
Source: EIA, company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

European supply has shifted towards dependence on LNG and Norway. Exhibit 19
includes a bar chart that demonstrates the expected makeup of European natural gas
volumes from October 2022 to September 2023 compared to the prior year. The importance
of LNG is meaningful in 2023, and likely to keep a strong floor in global LNG pricing.
Exhibit 19: Energy – Europe Natural Gas Supply Mix, 2021-2023E
100%
90%
25%
35%
80%
Europe Natural Gas Supply Mix
70% 13%
60%
50% 34%
34%
40%
30%
17%
20% 16%
10% 7% 9%
5% 6%
0%
Oct/2021-Sep/2022 Oct/2022E - Sep/2023E
Others North Africa Imports Production
Norwegian Imports Russian Imports LNG Imports
European natural gas storage on better footing versus 2021 levels, but much depends
on winter weather. Despite a sharp decline in imports from Russia, LNG volumes and
demand destruction measures have put European storage on better footing entering winter
2022/2023. According to recent projections from Bloomberg, the degree of demand
14
destruction could outpace the decline in supply to Europe, which could help Europe to
maintain a healthy days of storage supply in the coming months. This remains highly weather
dependent however, and large swings are very likely. Exhibit 20 shows a line chart of
European natural gas storage (left) and days of storage supply (right).
Exhibit 20: Energy – Europe Natural Gas Inventory And Days Of Storage Supply, 2017 – 2023E
Europe Natural Gas Storage (Bcf) Europe Natural Gas Days of Storage Supply
4,000 160
140
Days of Supply With Storage

3,500
3,000
120
100
Storage (Bcf )
2,500
80
2,000
60
1,500 40
1,000 20
500 -
Jun-22
Jun-23
Feb-22
Feb-23
Oct-21
Apr-22
Oct-22
Apr-23
Dec-21
Dec-22
Aug-22
Aug-23
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2021-2022 Days of Storage Supply
202 0 202 2 2022-2023 Days of Storage Supply
LNG price volatility likely to continue given current pricing is well through the cost of
supply. European gas benchmarks have been trading at a premium to JKM since the
invasion of Ukraine by Russia, which has motivated uncommitted LNG shippers to direct
cargoes to Europe. Lockdowns also recently reduced industrial activity in Asia however, and
we expect that the return of Asian buyers and limited LNG supply will lead to strong pricing
through 2023. Exhibit 21 includes a line chart of JKM and TTF futures pricing.
Exhibit 21: Energy – Natural Gas Futures, 2021 - 2025E

Japan Korea Marker LNG Futures Price (US$/MMBtu) Netherlands TTF Gas Futures Price (US$/MMBtu)
$60.00 $70.00
$60.00
$50.00
$50.00
JKM (US$/MMBtu)
$40.00
TTF (US$/Mcf)
$40.00
$30.00
$30.00
$20.00
$20.00
$10.00 $10.00
$- $-
Oct-21
Apr-22
Oct-22
Apr-23
Oct-23
Apr-24
Oct-24
Apr-25
Oct-25
Jan-22
Jan-23
Jan-24
Jan-25
Jul-22
Jul-23
Jul-24
Jul-25
Oct-21
Apr-22
Oct-22
Apr-23
Oct-23
Apr-24
Oct-24
Apr-25
Oct-25
Jan-22
Jan-23
Jan-24
Jan-25
Jul-22
Jul-23
Jul-24
Jul-25
10/5/2021 4/5/2022 7/5/2022 10/4/2022 10/5/2021 4/5/2022 7/5/2022 10/4/2022
15
Drilling Activity Outlook

Drilling activity in Canada exceeded our expectations with unseasonably strong Q3
activity levels. On average, 197 rigs were working during Q3, which exceeded our estimate
of 169 rigs and marked a Q3 high that was last set in 2018. Our forecast going forward is only
slightly higher, owing to the momentum established in Q3/22. We are hesitant to get too excited
on a building rig count as higher pricing is likely to see operators look to possibly cut rigs in
response to elevated day rates. Furthermore, recent weakness in natural gas pricing in the
WCSB will continue to reinforce the importance of capital discipline and moderate growth from
most gas-weighted operators. The upper line chart in Exhibit 22 shows Canadian rig activity
along with our current forecast and our prior forecast.
Our U.S. forecast is well calibrated, so we leave it unchanged. In the U.S., 737 rigs were
active in Q3/22 which was aligned with our estimate. We expect a continued expansion in rig
activity south of the border, but capital discipline and lack of rigs is likely to see growth rates
plateau in the near term. Part of this is also due to a lack of egress out of key natural gas
basins, with the exception of the Haynesville which has substantial growth in takeaway capacity
in the medium term. We also see recessionary concerns reinforcing capital discipline from
operators despite comparatively healthy commodity prices and an ongoing energy crisis
overseas. The lower line chart in Exhibit 22 shows U.S. rig activity along with our current and
prior forecast.
Exhibit 22: Energy – Rig Count Actuals And Forecasts (2015-2024E)
Canada
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
201 5 201 6 201 7 201 8 201 9 202 0 202 1 202 2E 202 3E 202 4E
Actu al New Prio r
U.S.
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1E
Q2E
Q3E
Q4E
Q1E
Q2E
Q3E
Q4E
Q1E
Q2E
Q3E
Q4E
201 5 201 6 201 7 201 8 201 9 202 0 202 1 202 2E 202 3E 202 4E
Actu al New Prio r
Source: Baker Hughes and CIBC World Markets Inc.
16
Commodity Price Forecasts – CIBC Base Deck

In the table in Exhibit 23, we provide our quarterly price deck, which we have adopted for all
company base outlooks.
Our 2023 price revisions include:
• WTI: down~5% to US$81.23/Bbl (US$85.22/Bbl prior)

• WCS: down ~9% to $83.38/Bbl ($91.95/Bbl prior)
• NYMEX: up ~13% to US$5.35/Mcf (US$4.75/Mcf prior)
• AECO: up ~8% to $4.85/Mcf ($4.49/Mcf prior)
Exhibit 23: Energy – CIBC Base Deck, 2022E-2024E

2022E 2023E 2024E
CIBC Base Price Deck Q1A Q2A Q3A Q4E Full Year Q1E Q2E Q3E Q4E Full Year Full Year
Crude Oil
Brent (US$/Bbl) $99.53 $112.85 $99.07 $92.00 $100.84 $89.00 $84.00 $84.00 $84.00 $85.23 $78.00
Brent - WTI Differential (US$/Bbl) $4.60 $4.00 $7.25 $7.00 $5.72 $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 $3.00
WTI Oil (US$/Bbl) $94.93 $108.85 $91.81 $85.00 $95.11 $85.00 $80.00 $80.00 $80.00 $81.23 $75.00
WTI - MSW Differential (US$/Bbl) ($1.57) ($2.22) ($2.21) ($3.00) ($2.25) ($3.00) ($3.00) ($3.00) ($3.00) ($3.00) ($3.50)
MSW (C$/Bbl) $118.24 $136.12 $117.00 $110.81 $120.67 $109.33 $100.00 $98.72 $100.00 $101.92 $93.15
WTI - WCS Differential (US$/Bbl) ($12.66) ($15.44) ($20.53) ($20.00) ($17.19) ($20.00) ($18.00) ($14.00) ($17.00) ($17.23) ($13.50)
Western Canada Select (C$/Bbl) $104.19 $119.24 $93.08 $87.84 $101.26 $86.67 $80.52 $84.62 $81.82 $83.38 $80.13
Natural Gas
NYMEX (US$/Mcf) $4.80 $7.75 $8.25 $7.30 $7.04 $7.26 $5.19 $4.15 $4.84 $5.35 $4.00
NYMEX - AECO Differential (US$/Mcf) ($1.03) ($2.06) ($5.07) ($2.50) ($2.67) ($1.00) ($1.50) ($2.50) ($1.50) ($1.63) ($1.63)
AECO 30+ Day Spot (C$/Mcf) $4.78 $7.27 $4.16 $6.49 $5.67 $8.35 $4.79 $2.11 $4.34 $4.85 $3.09
NYMEX - Dawn Differential (US$/Mcf) ($0.18) ($0.20) ($0.60) ($0.50) ($0.37) $0.15 ($0.20) ($0.20) ($0.20) ($0.11) ($0.08)
NYMEX - Station 2 Gas Differential (US$/Mcf) ($0.69) ($2.58) ($5.78) ($2.50) ($2.90) ($1.25) ($1.30) ($2.50) ($1.00) ($1.51) ($1.44)
NYMEX - Chicago Differential (US$/Mcf) ($0.25) ($0.25) ($0.54) ($0.25) ($0.32) $0.50 ($0.25) ($0.25) $0.00 ($0.00) ($0.00)
NGL Pricing
Propane at Edmonton (US$/Bbl) $45.79 $42.05 $38.21 $38.21 $41.03 $40.00 $40.00 $40.00 $40.00 $40.00 $40.00
Butane at Edmonton (US$/Bbl) $57.27 $53.14 $39.49 $39.49 $47.28 $60.00 $60.00 $60.00 $60.00 $60.00 $60.00
Condensate at Edmonton (US$/Bbl) $97.00 $103.56 $88.38 $83.00 $92.93 $85.00 $76.00 $76.00 $78.00 $78.72 $72.50
Forex
Forex (US$/C$) $0.79 $0.78 $0.77 $0.74 $0.77 $0.75 $0.77 $0.78 $0.77 $0.77 $0.77
Source: Bloomberg, Platts and CIBC World Markets Inc.
17
Commodity Price Forecasts – Current Futures Strip

Exhibit 24 includes the current CIBC strip price forecasts. We are closely aligned to strip
through 2022 and 2023, with wider variance for 2024. Key differences include:
• WTI: CIBC oil price forecasts (2022: US$95.11/Bbl, 2023: US$81.23/Bbl, 2024:
US$75.00/Bbl) sit ~1% below the current forward curve in 2022, ~2% above the current
forward curve in 2023, and ~5% above the current forward curve in 2024.
• MSW: CIBC oil price forecasts (2022: $120.67/Bbl, 2023: $101.92/Bbl, 2024: $93.15/Bbl)
sit ~1% below the current forward curve in 2022 and 2023, and ~4% above the current
forward curve in 2024.
• WCS: CIBC price forecasts (2022: $101.26/Bbl, 2023: $83.38/Bbl, and 2024: $80.13/Bbl)
sit ~0%, 1%, and 13% above the current forward curve in 2022, 2023, and 2024,
respectively.
• NYMEX: CIBC prices sit above the NYMEX forward curve for Q4/22 and Q1/23 by ~2%.
Our full-year NYMEX price forecasts (2022: US$7.04/Mcf, 2023: US$5.35/Mcf, and 2024:
US$4.00/Mcf) sit 1% above the forward curve for 2022, and ~6%, and ~18% below the
current forward curve in 2023, and 2024 respectively.
• AECO: CIBC prices sit 4% and 33% above the AECO forward curve for Q4/22 and
Q1/23, respectively. Our full-year AECO price forecasts (2022: $5.67/Mcf, 2023:
$4.85/Mcf, and 2024 $3.09/Mcf) sit 1% above the current forward curve in 2022, and 3%
and 31% below the current forward curve in 2023 and 2024, respectively.
Exhibit 24: Energy – CIBC Strip Deck, 2022E - 2024E

2022E 2023E 2024E
Futures Strip Price Deck Q1A Q2A Q3A Q4E Full Year Q1E Q2E Q3E Q4E Full Year Full Year
Crude Oil
Brent (US$/Bbl) $99.53 $112.85 $99.07 $93.21 $101.14 $89.60 $85.64 $82.93 $80.65 $84.67 $76.57
Brent - WTI Differential (US$/Bbl) $4.60 $4.00 $7.25 $6.08 $5.49 $5.49 $5.04 $5.09 $4.88 $5.12 $5.37
WTI Oil (US$/Bbl) $94.93 $108.85 $91.81 $87.14 $95.65 $84.11 $80.60 $77.84 $75.77 $79.55 $71.20
WTI - MSW Differential (US$/Bbl) ($1.57) ($2.22) ($2.21) ($2.06) ($2.02) ($3.90) ($3.20) ($3.35) ($4.35) ($3.70) ($4.45)
MSW (C$/Bbl) $118.24 $136.12 $117.00 $116.76 $122.01 $109.52 $105.60 $101.46 $96.44 $103.21 $89.39
WTI - WCS Differential (US$/Bbl) ($12.66) ($15.44) ($20.53) ($23.98) ($18.19) ($21.60) ($19.00) ($17.65) ($18.35) ($19.14) ($18.45)
Western Canada Select (C$/Bbl) $104.19 $119.24 $93.08 $86.34 $100.94 $85.36 $84.04 $81.98 $77.59 $82.21 $70.64
Natural Gas
NYMEX (US$/Mcf) $4.80 $7.75 $8.25 $7.21 $7.02 $7.13 $5.04 $5.11 $5.46 $5.68 $4.87
NYMEX - AECO Differential (US$/Mcf) ($1.03) ($2.06) ($5.07) ($2.65) ($2.71) ($2.52) ($1.62) ($2.01) ($1.83) ($1.99) ($1.55)
AECO 30+ Day Spot (C$/Mcf) $4.78 $7.27 $4.16 $6.25 $5.61 $6.29 $4.66 $4.23 $4.91 $5.02 $4.45
NYMEX - Dawn Differential (US$/Mcf) ($0.18) ($0.20) ($0.60) ($0.39) ($0.34) $0.10 ($0.25) ($0.31) ($0.25) ($0.18) ($0.22)
NYMEX - Station 2 Gas Differential (US$/Mcf) ($0.69) ($2.58) ($5.78) ($3.09) ($3.05) ($2.70) ($2.03) ($2.38) ($2.00) ($2.28) ($1.72)
NYMEX - Chicago Differential (US$/Mcf) ($0.25) ($0.25) ($0.53) ($0.23) ($0.32) $0.71 ($0.21) ($0.29) ($0.17) $0.01 ($0.00)
NBP ICE (GBp/Therm) $233.97 $134.18 $290.04 $385.07 $261.31 $488.91 $371.24 $356.20 $379.84 $398.63 $272.91
TTF (Eur/MWh) $99.51 $98.74 $194.61 $176.27 $142.64 $186.95 $171.08 $161.69 $158.02 $169.34 $112.33
NGL Pricing
Propane at Edmonton (US$/Bbl) $45.79 $42.05 $38.21 $36.26 $40.54 $35.00 $33.54 $32.39 $31.53 $33.10 $29.63
Butane at Edmonton (US$/Bbl) $57.27 $53.14 $39.49 $37.48 $46.77 $36.18 $34.67 $33.48 $32.59 $34.22 $30.63
Condensate at Edmonton (US$/Bbl) $97.00 $103.56 $88.38 $87.63 $94.10 $84.91 $76.65 $72.69 $71.47 $76.38 $68.20
Forex
Forex (US$/C$) $0.79 $0.78 $0.77 $0.73 $0.77 $0.73 $0.73 $0.73 $0.74 $0.73 $0.75
Source: Bloomberg, Platts and CIBC World Markets Inc.
18
Company-specific Potential Catalysts With Q3/22 Results

Advantage Energy: Advantage intends to allocate 100% of its free cash flow towards share
buybacks, and we estimate that would put it through its NCIB by early 2023. We could see
the company look to discuss 2023 expectations in greater detail prior to the end of 2022,
although not necessarily with Q3 results. We would not be surprised to see AAV discuss
potential for an SIB in Q4/22 or Q1/23, and expect Entropy updates and catalysts will
continue to be reported separately through Q4/22.
ARC Resources: ARC was very active on its renewed NCIB through September, which
could put the company on pace to complete its NCIB by early 2023. Management has
committed to allocating 50% - 80% of free cash flow to shareholders, and we believe
accelerating returns to shareholders is likely as ARC approaches $1B in net debt. We expect
ARC will include a 2023 capital budget with its Q3 results, although we are not certain that
Attachie spending will be included if there is not a formal regulatory resolution in North East
BC. We have included expected spending for Attachie in our 2023 capital spending estimate
at this juncture and would not be surprised to see ARC increase its dividend with Q3 results.
Baytex Energy: We expect the company to reach its net debt target of $800MM in Q2/23.
Once the net debt target is reached, the company plans to increase free cash flow towards
share repurchases to 50% (from 25%) with the remainder going towards balance sheet
strength. Up to the end of Q3/22, Baytex has repurchased ~$137.4MM in 2022. Baytex‘s
H2/22 drilling program kicked-off in July with 14 wells planned. We expect the company to
deliver strong production results, highlighting the viability of the Clearwater play.
Birchcliff Energy: Management continues to focus on achieving its debt targets prior to a
step change in the dividend. The company has signalled its intention to pay an $0.80/sh
dividend in 2023, which computes to a 27% payout ratio on strip, leaving room for upside to
shareholder returns. Birchcliff will provide a preliminary budget for 2023 on October 13.
Canadian Natural Resources: The company declared a special dividend of $1.50 per share,
payable to shareholders of record on August 23. The company set a net debt floor of $8B, at
which point capital allocation of excess free cash flow would be increased above the 50/50
split between buybacks and debt repayments. Looking forward, we expect this target to be
achieved by H2/23 on strip pricing. We expect the company to generate ~$9.9B in 2022 free
cash flow after capital spending and the dividend, suggesting ~$1.7B of share repurchases in
H2/22. It could also provide the company with an opportunity to increase the (base) dividend.
Cardinal Energy: Cardinal expects to have achieved its $50MM phase three debt reduction
target and recently announced an incremental monthly dividend of $0.01/sh to be paid during
the fourth quarter, in addition to its base monthly dividend of $0.05/sh. With the quarter, we
may see an update with respect to the company’s NCIB program and its asset retirement
budget.
Cenovus Energy: We expect Cenovus to achieve its ~$4B net debt floor in Q2/23, allowing
the company to increase free cash flow allocation return to shareholders after the dividend to
100%. We estimate Q3/22 free cash flow exclusive of asset acquisitions and on QTD strip
pricing to be ~$2.4B, with net capital spending of ~$931MM. This suggests ~$1.2B in share
repurchases based on a 50/50 split. We estimate the upper end of the targeted repurchase
price could be ~$30 per share, suggesting buybacks will continue to be the preferred method
of returning cash to shareholders. We will be looking also for an update on the Toledo
Refinery given the recent incident and as the company was in the middle of closing an
acquisition for the remaining 50% working interest. Given the total share purchases made in
the quarter falls modestly below the potential 50/50 allocation level of free cash flow, this
could open up the company to issuing a special dividend.
Crescent Point: Crescent Point achieved its near-term net debt target of $1.3B earlier than
anticipated, with proceeds from the sales of non-core Saskatchewan Viking assets and East
19
Shale Duvernay assets. Beginning in Q3/22, the company will target the return of up to 50%
of its excess discretionary cash flow to shareholders through a combination of share
repurchases and special dividends. On strip pricing, we expect the company to generate
~$727MM excess discretionary cash flow in H2/22 (suggesting ~$300MM is available to
accelerate capital return to shareholders).
Enerflex: Assuming a successful shareholder vote on October 11, the focus for the business
will be on integrating the Exterran assets and personnel over the next 18 months. We believe
Q3 margins will remain under pressure for Enerflex, although we expect this will be muted by
investors trying to assess the potential of the pro-forma enterprise. We expect margin
improvements through synergy realizations through 2023, provided the Exterran acquisition is
approved by shareholders.
Enerplus: Enerplus renewed its NCIB during the third quarter to repurchase 10% of its float.
We expect Enerplus could be in a position for a dividend increase with Q3 results, or to
execute a substantial issuer bid by early 2023. We are not expecting a formal 2023 budget
with Q3 results, and will be looking for further updates on the Canadian divestiture process.
Drillers (Ensign and Precision): We expect to see a decent step change in margins for the
third quarter as we begin to see the impact of more recent contracts, along with growth in
underlying activity for these businesses. Growth in WCSB and U.S. rig counts have been
decelerating since July, suggesting the third quarter could be a high water mark in terms of
rate of change in margins and activity levels for the drillers.
Freehold Royalties: Freehold’s U.S. production growth has been sluggish to start 2022
although we expect the acquisitions through the quarter should see a resumption in
production growth from the U.S. asset base with Q3/22. We believe the focus in the business
will remain on debt reduction, accretive M&A opportunities in the U.S., and demonstrating
growth from its U.S. assets. We are not expecting a dividend increase this quarter.
Imperial Oil: Imperial has suggested that it plans to complete its recently renewed NCIB by
the end of October. Given the XTO sale was completed at the end of August, we estimate
Imperial could have up to ~$4B-$5B of available cash to pursue another SIB by the end this
year. We understand the company will have a ~$2.5B cash tax payment in Q1/23, but this still
leaves a significant amount of cash available to return to shareholders. Historically, the
company has returned (via special dividend) proceeds received during an asset sale. We will
continue to watch for commentary around use of proceeds. Finally, we expect a tailwind in
downstream earnings given the LIFO nature of purchased product accounting.
Kelt Exploration: Production guidance was reduced for 2022 in early September following
planned and unplanned outages during Q3/22, which we expect could drag into Q4/22. We
expect to see a 2023 budget from Kelt with its Q3 results. Similar to prior years, we expect
management will look to spend cash flow under a modest commodity price assumption, with
opportunity for further expansion as the year progresses. We believe a regulatory resolution
in North East BC would be a positive catalyst for Kelt’s Oak project, and expect to see Kelt
increase activity in Q4/22 in this region given its recent receipt of drilling permits.
MEG Energy: We continue to expect MEG to focus on decreasing outstanding leverage

while also layering in cash returns to shareholders. On strip, we expect the company to reach
its net debt targets of US$1.2B in Q1/23 and US$600MM in H2/25. Upon reaching these
targets, MEG plans to increase FCF allocation percentage towards shareholders to 50% and
100%, respectively. We also expect Christina Lake to hit payout around year-end, which will
cause a step-change in royalty payments on the project.
NuVista: We expect NuVista will further outline a 2023 program with its Q3 results and would
be unsurprised to see the company look to allocate free cash flow towards a combination of
shareholder returns and growth next year. The company could be through its NCIB by year-
20
end, and we expect it will look to increase its return to shareholders after achieving a
$200MM net debt target, which could occur by late 2022 or early 2023. We expect
management could look towards an SIB, but we would not rule out a potential dividend or a
very low debt profile moving forward.
Ovintiv: We have recently seen a round of licenses for the BC Montney come through the
regulatory system. While there have been indications that applications have been moving
(slowly) forward, this will help Ovintiv in moderating the number of 100% working interest
wells it looks to develop in H2/22 (one of the reasons capital spending increased earlier this
year). On strip, we estimate the company will generate ~US$2.5B in free cash flow this year,
which would help the company reach its US$3.0B net debt target in Q1/23. Upon achieving
the net debt target, the company plans to double its returns to shareholders from 25% to 50%
of the previous quarter’s free cash flow after base dividends, in a form of share buybacks
and/or variable dividends.
Paramount Resources: We expect Paramount could provide an update to the 2023 budget
it previously outlined (105 MBoe/d -110 MBoe/d production and $650MM-$700MM capex),
but would be surprised to see meaningful changes. We believe Paramount will look to
increase shareholder returns once it achieves its $300MM net debt target, which we estimate
could occur in H2/22. While a dividend increase would not come as a surprise, we also
believe POU will look to preserve cash for potential M&A opportunities.
Peyto Exploration: The company pre-released its production for the quarter as well as two
months of capital spending, and we expect gas realizations to be in line with the last two
quarters. We also expect to receive a budget for 2023 with Q3 results.
PrarieSky Royalty: We expect production levels are likely to retract this quarter given Q3 is
typically when prior period adjustments retract with lower activity in Q2. We are not expecting
a dividend raise this quarter, but do expect the company’s gas price realizations are likely to
be weak given it is unhedged and carries exposure to AECO and Station 2. We expect the
company will move to net cash in 2023 and could double its dividend next year.
SECURE: We expect SECURE will post another strong quarter with good field conditions and
increased drilling activity through Q3/22. We would not be surprised if SECURE has achieved
its full synergy target of $75MM prior to year end and believe SECURE will continue to
allocate the bulk of its free cash flow towards debt reduction. We will be looking for any
updates with respect to returning cash to shareholders as its debt targets are achieved, and
additional dialogue from the competition bureau.
Spartan Delta: Spartan closed the acquisition of $600MM in non-capital loss tax pools
through Bellatrix for $6MM subsequent to Q2/22. Management indicates that these tax pools,
if deductible, would shelter Spartan from taxes through 2026. We see elevated risk in the
deductibility of these pools but at current strip pricing, we do not expect any impact to our
estimates through 2024. With the quarter, we are expecting Spartan to release its outlook for
2023, which will include levels for capital spending and production.
Suncor: Suncor is continuing a fairly heavy turnaround program in Q3/22, in which we see
downtime at both upgraders and Syncrude. Our focus for the company will be around the
search for a new CEO and the potential results of process on its retail gasoline station
network. Suncor announced plan to repay $3.6B, with settlement date on October 7. We
expect Suncor to complete the approved 10% NCIB prior to its expiry at the beginning of
February 2023 and for the program to be renewed at that time. Further, this pace could be
accelerated if additional asset sales (like the U.K. North Sea) are completed. On strip, we
estimate the company will reach its net debt target of $12B in Q3/23 (not including proceeds
from asset sales).
21
Tamarack Valley Energy: We believe Q3 results will be a bit of a non-event for Tamarack,
following its announced acquisition of Deltastream in early September. We expect further
commentary on Deltastream’s operations are likely to accompany Q3 results, and our current
estimates assume the transaction closes prior to the end of October. We expect TVE could
have faced downtime through Q3 with planned and unplanned outages, but ultimately expect
debt reduction will remain the key focus for this business in the near term.
Topaz: Topaz was acquisitive through Q3, acquiring Charlie Lake and Deep Basin lands
from Tourmaline, and a Clearwater GORR from Deltastream (now TVE). We expect TPZ will
likely remain active in the M&A market through H2/22. We would not be surprised to see
modest dividend increases as growth continues over the next 18 months, but are not
expecting a dividend increase with Q3 earnings.
Tourmaline: Tourmaline released its growth outlook to 2028 during Q2 results, which
includes phase 1 of the Conroy North Montney development project commencing production
in Q1/26. We believe a regulatory resolution in North East BC would be a positive catalyst for
Tourmaline. Tourmaline has indicated it intends to return greater than 60% of free cash flow
to shareholders in 2022 and 50%-75% in 2023. Our current forecasts expect TOU could
support a special dividend in Q4/22 of the same magnitude or higher than the $2/sh which
was announced with Q2 results.
Whitecap: Whitecap has completed the acquisition of XTO Energy Canada for total cash
consideration of ~$1.9B on August 30. The company will focus on lowering leverage with
excess free cash flow and can reach the $1.8B net debt target in Q4/22 and the $1.3B target
in Q2/23 on strip pricing. Whitecap announced its 2023 budget with production guidance
ranging from 170 MBoe/d – 172 MBoe/d (64% liquids) and capex guidance ranging from
$900MM – $950MM. The focus of spending is on Northern AB & BC, which is seeing ~45% of
spending that provides opportunities to show production growth. Saskatchewan will see
~$330MM of capex which is focused on delivering free cash flow.
Vermilion Energy: Vermilion announced an increase in its quarterly base dividend to

$0.08/sh with it’s Q2/22 results. We estimate the company will generate ~$363MM and
~$1.5B of free cash flow in Q3/22 and full year 2022, respectively, on strip pricing. The
company has highlighted ~$1.2B and ~$850MM net debt levels as the next goals, which we
estimate the company can achieve by Q3/22 and Q1/23, respectively, on strip pricing.
22
CIBC Vs. Consensus Q3/22E

The table in Exhibit 25 illustrates where our estimates sit relative to Street expectations.
Currently, we foresee cash flow beats from IMO, VET, and FRU but broadly speaking, we are
below Street for most companies under coverage.
Exhibit 25: Energy – CIBC Vs. Consensus Estimates And Reporting Date, Q3/22E
Q3/22E Capital Expenditures ($MM) Q3/22E Total Production (Mboe/d) Q3/22E CFPS ($/sh) Reporting Date
Company CIBC Consensus % CIBC Consensus % CIBC Consensus %
Large Cap/Oil Sands Producers
ARC Resources $390.0 $363.0 7% 343.0 346.1 -1% $1.47 $1.48 0% Nov 3rd (After Market)
Canadian Natural $1,233.6 $1,231.0 0% 1,321.1 1,349.7 -2% $4.27 $4.60 -7% Nov 3rd (Before Market)
Cenovus Energy $920.5 $970.8 -5% 785.9 800.7 -2% $1.62 $1.87 -13% Nov 2nd (Before Market)
Imperial Oil $298.4 $379.0 -21% 440.8 436.9 1% $4.34 $3.98 9% Oct 28th (Before Market)
MEG Energy $81.2 $90.0 -10% 99.5 101.0 -1% $1.58 $1.97 -20% Nov 9th (After Market)
Ovintiv US$504.0 US$461.6 9% 512.5 506.3 1% US$3.61 US$4.05 -11% TBD
Suncor Energy $1,370.6 $1,441.1 -5% 723.4 724.9 0% $3.10 $3.43 -10% Nov 2nd (After Market)
Tourmaline $505.0 $450.0 12% 480.2 483.1 -1% $3.22 $3.26 -1% Nov 2nd (After Market)
Average -2% -1% -7%
Oil Weighted E&P
Baytex $174.2 $157.5 11% 83.8 84.6 -1% $0.49 $0.55 -11% Nov 3rd (After Market)
Cardinal Energy $25.0 $27.5 -9% 21.6 21.9 -1% $0.51 $0.61 -17% Nov 10th (After Market)
Crescent Point $310.9 $291.3 7% 131.8 131.1 1% $1.02 $1.05 -2% Oct 26th (Before Market)
Enerplus US$115.0 US$105.0 10% 105.4 105.5 0% US$1.45 US$1.50 -4% Nov 3rd (After Market)
Tamarack Valley $100.0 $104.0 -4% 43.2 43.5 -1% $0.35 $0.37 -3% Oct 27th (After Market)
Vermilion $201.6 $178.0 13% 84.6 85.2 -1% $3.39 $3.20 6% Nov 9th (After Market)
Whitecap $229.9 $227.8 1% 144.0 143.1 1% $0.93 $0.99 -6% Oct 27th (Before Market)
Average 4% 0% -5%
Gas Weighted E&P
Advantage $65.0 $45.0 44% 54.1 55.8 -3% $0.57 $0.63 -10% Oct 27th (After Market)
Birchcliff $93.0 $78.0 19% 78.0 79.7 -2% $1.03 $1.04 0% Nov 9th (After Market)
Kelt $80.0 $77.5 3% 24.6 28.2 -13% $0.29 $0.37 -22% Nov 10th (Before Market)
NuVista $95.0 $90.0 6% 68.1 68.2 0% $0.94 $0.94 0% Nov 9th (Before Market)
Peyto $110.0 $100.0 10% 105.3 105.4 0% $1.13 $1.23 -8% Nov 9th (After Market)
Paramount $200.0 $208.7 -4% 97.7 99.2 -1% $2.04 $2.30 -11% Nov 3rd (Before Market)
Spartan Delta $110.0 $121.8 -10% 70.2 70.5 0% $1.19 $1.19 0% Nov 8th (After Market)
Average 10% -3% -7%
Royalty Co's
Freehold Royalties $0.1 $0.0 nm 14.1 14.1 0% $0.53 $0.53 1% Nov 8th (After Market)
PrairieSky $0.0 $0.0 0% 24.2 25.4 -5% $0.48 $0.51 -6% Oct 24th (After Market)
Topaz $0.9 $1.0 -10% 16.2 16.7 -3% $0.53 $0.59 -9% Nov 1st (After Market)
Average -5% -2% -5%
Source: FactSet, Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.
The table in Exhibit 26 summarizes our estimates relative to Street expectations for energy
service companies. We currently foresee a moderate EBITDA beat for EFX versus
consensus, while our EBITDA estimates for ESI and SES are 5% and 3% below the street
respectively.
Exhibit 26: Oilfield Services – CIBC Vs. Consensus Estimates And Reporting Date, Q3/22E
Q3/22E EBITDA ($MM) Q3/22E Net Debt ($MM Q3/22E CFPS ($/sh) Reporting Date
Company CIBC Consensus % CIBC Consensus % CIBC Consensus %
Contract Drillers
Ensign $94.9 $99.8 -5% 1,279.0 1,338.1 -4% $0.36 $0.45 -20% Nov 4th (Before Market)
Precision $109.5 $109.6 0% 1,023.8 1,148.2 -11% $6.20 $5.98 4% Oct 27th (Before Marekt)
Compression
Enerflex $49.6 $48.0 3% 226.0 304.0 -26% $0.46 $0.44 6% Nov 9th (After Market)
Waste Management
Secure $133.1 $137.3 -3% 931.9 1,144.5 -19% $0.39 $0.37 6% Nov 2nd (Before Market)
Source: FactSet, Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.
23
Estimate Changes
The table in Exhibit 27 includes our forward year changes to our production, capex, and cash flow estimates across 2022E and 2023E on our base price forecast,
as well as our 2024 estimates.
Exhibit 27: Energy – CIBC Estimate Changes, 2022E-2024E
24
Oilfield Services Estimate Changes

The table in Exhibit 28 includes our forward year changes to our EBITDA, net debt, and cash flow estimates across 2022E and 2023E, as well as our 2024
estimates.
Exhibit 28: Oilfield Services – CIBC Estimate Changes, 2022E - 2024E

EBITDA ($MM) Net Debt ($MM) CFPS - Diluted ($/sh)
2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E
Curren Curren Curren
Prior Current %∆ Prior Current %∆ Prior Current %∆ Prior Current %∆ Prior Current %∆ Prior Current %∆
Company Ticker t t t
Contract Drillers
Ensign ESI $311 $332 7% $386 $408 6% $412 $1,304 $1,299 0% $1,214 $1,162 -4% $1,013 $1.05 $1.16 11% $1.47 $1.60 9% $1.67
Precision Drilling PD $357 $388 9% $481 $486 1% $495 $1,001 $972 -3% $786 $767 -2% $510 $17.80 $19.88 12% $28.09 $28.47 1% $29.39
Compression
Enerflex EFX $220 $216 -2% $487 $488 0% $541 $1,222 $1,240 1% $1,199 $1,171 -2% $862 $1.88 $1.85 -2% $3.12 $3.05 -2% $3.35
Waste Management
Secure Energy SES $512 $517 1% $514 $517 1% $524 $861 $849 -1% $534 $528 -1% $183 $1.34 $1.40 5% $1.41 $1.35 -4% $1.47
25
Ratings And Price Targets

The table in Exhibit 29 summarizes our price targets and ratings across our coverage universe.
Exhibit 29: Energy And Energy Service – Ratings And Price Targets, As of October 5, 2022
Rating Price Target Upside Downside
Company Ticker Prior Current Change Prior Current Change Prior Current Change Prior Current Change
Advantage Oil & Gas AAV NT NT = $13.00 $13.50 ↑ $19.50 $20.00 ↑ $5.00 $5.00 =
ARC Resources ARX OP OP = $25.00 $25.00 = $33.00 $34.00 ↑ $10.00 $10.00 =
Baytex Energy BTE NT NT = $8.50 $8.50 = $17.00 $13.00 ↓ $5.00 $3.00 ↓
Birchcliff Energy BIR NT NT = $13.50 $13.50 = $19.00 $19.00 = $5.50 $4.00 ↓
Canadian Natural Resources CNQ OP OP = $85.00 $90.00 ↑ $108.00 $104.00 ↓ $45.00 $48.00 ↑
Cardinal Energy CJ NT NT = $11.00 $11.00 = $16.50 $15.00 ↓ $3.50 $3.50 =
Cenovus Energy CVE OP OP = $32.00 $32.00 = $42.00 $38.00 ↓ $11.00 $14.00 ↑
Crescent Point Energy CPG OP OP = $16.00 $16.00 = $30.00 $30.00 = $7.00 $7.00 =
Enerflex EFX NT NT = $10.00 $10.00 = $14.00 $14.00 = $2.00 $2.00 =
Enerplus ERF OP OP = US$20.00 US$22.00 ↑ US$26.00 US$30.00 ↑ US$7.50 US$10.00 ↑
Ensign ESI NT NT = $4.50 $4.50 = $6.00 $7.00 ↑ $2.00 $2.00 =
Freehold Royalties FRU NT NT = $18.00 $18.00 = $24.00 $24.00 = $8.50 $8.50 =
Imperial Oil IMO NT NT = $74.00 $80.00 ↑ $84.00 $115.00 ↑ $48.00 $50.00 ↑
Kelt Exploration KEL OP OP = $9.50 $9.50 = $17.50 $16.00 ↓ $3.00 $2.50 ↓
MEG Energy MEG NT NT = $22.00 $22.00 = $41.00 $34.00 ↓ $12.00 $13.00 ↑
NuVista Energy NVA OP OP = $15.00 $17.00 ↑ $21.50 $22.00 ↑ $5.50 $5.50 =
Ovintiv (US$) OVV NT NT = US$60.00 US$65.00 ↑ US$80.00 US$76.00 ↓ US$29.00 US$24.00 ↓
Paramount Resources POU NT NT = $40.00 $37.50 ↓ $65.00 $60.00 ↓ $20.00 $16.00 ↓
Peyto Exploration PEY NT NT = $18.00 $18.00 = $28.00 $28.00 = $6.00 $6.00 =
PrairieSky Royalty PSK OP OP = $26.00 $26.00 = $32.00 $32.00 = $11.00 $11.00 =
Precision Drilling PD NT NT = $120.00 $110.00 ↓ $165.00 $175.00 ↑ $45.00 $50.00 ↑
Secure Energy SES OP OP = $8.00 $8.50 ↑ $10.00 $10.00 = $2.50 $2.50 =
Spartan Delta SDE OP OP = $19.50 $19.50 = $26.00 $24.50 ↓ $8.00 $7.00 ↓
Suncor Energy SU OP OP = $65.00 $60.00 ↓ $75.00 $70.00 ↓ $29.00 $40.00 ↑
Tamarack Valley Energy TVE OP OP = $6.00 $6.00 = $8.25 $9.00 ↑ $1.00 $1.00 =
Topaz Energy TPZ OP OP = $29.00 $29.00 = $37.00 $37.00 = $14.50 $13.00 ↓
Tourmaline TOU OP OP = $100.00 $100.00 = $120.00 $120.00 = $40.00 $50.00 ↑
Vermilion Energy VET NT NT = $36.00 $36.00 = $80.00 $100.00 ↑ $21.00 $20.00 ↓
Whitecap Resources WCP OP OP = $15.00 $15.00 = $25.00 $21.00 ↓ $6.00 $6.00 =
Source: CIBC World Markets Inc.
26
Valuation View
Across all peer groups, we see valuations below the historical range, suggesting that most of these stocks have priced in a recessionary environment over the next
12 months. The box and whisker charts in Exhibit 30 show our current 2023E EV/DACF (black dashes) and 2023E D/CF on strip (blue circles) against the
historical EV/DACF range for each company.
Exhibit 30: Energy – Historical Valuation And Forward Estimates, 2023E

Royalty Peers Oil Peers Gas Peers Large Cap/Oil Sands
20x 8x 8x 8x
15x 6x 6x 6x
Multiple (x)
10x 4x 4x 4x
5x 2x 2x 2x
0x 0x 0x 0x
KEL
PEY
AAV
VET
BTE
TVE
POU
WCP
NVA
SDE
CPG
ERF
BIR
PEYCJ
PSK
IMO
TPZ
MEG
SU
CNQ
OVV
CVE
TOU
ARX
FRU
AAV
POU
NVA
2023E EV/DACF 2023E D/CF
Note: Historical NTM EV/DACF since Oct 1, 2020. TPZ since Nov 2, 2020. Priced as of Oct 5, 2022
Negative D/CF multiples are not shown. Ordered by median trailing EV/DACF
Liquids (US/Bbl) Natural Gas ($/Mcf)
2022 WTI $95.65; WCS Diff: -$18.19; Ed Par Diff: -$2.02; Ed C5 Diff: -$1.55 NYMEX US$7.02; AECO C$5.61
2023 WTI $79.55; WCS Diff: -$19.14; Ed Par Diff: -$3.70; Ed C5 Diff: -$3.17 NYMEX US$5.68; AECO C$5.02
Source: FactSet and CIBC World Markets Inc.
27
Energy Comparables
The following tables in Exhibits 31-35 include our valuation and operating comparables across our coverage universe on strip pricing and on the CIBC base price
deck.
Exhibit 31: Energy – Valuation Metrics (Strip Deck), 2022E-2024E

Price Yield Total Rtn Mkt Cap 2022E Net Debt EV P/CF D/CF EV/DACF Target EV/DACF EV/Boe/d ($K/Boe/d)
Company Ticker Analyst Rating 5-Oct-22 Target % % (MM) (MM) (MM) 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E
ARC ARX JK OP $18.46 $25.00 2.6% 38.0% $11,758 $1,790 $13,548 3.1x 3.2x 3.4x 0.5x 0.1x -0.2x 3.5x 3.3x 3.1x 4.6x 4.4x 4.3x $39.4 $34.2 $28.8
Canadian Natural CNQ DF OP $73.23 $90.00 6.0% 30.4% $80,386 $12,739 $93,125 4.1x 4.0x 4.1x 0.6x 0.5x 0.4x 4.6x 4.4x 4.3x 4.9x 4.8x 4.9x $71.7 $61.4 $53.9
Cenovus Energy CVE DF OP $24.51 $32.00 1.5% 38.1% $45,772 $7,726 $53,498 3.6x 2.6x 2.6x 0.6x 0.1x -0.3x 4.0x 2.6x 2.3x 4.5x 3.3x 3.4x $68.0 $52.2 $39.5
Imperial Oil IMO DF NT $64.87 $80.00 2.1% 25.5% $39,261 $423 $39,684 4.1x 3.8x 4.0x 0.0x 0.1x 0.1x 4.1x 3.9x 4.1x 5.1x 4.6x 4.9x $94.6 $81.6 $68.0
MEG Energy MEG DF NT $18.27 $22.00 0.0% 25.0% $5,459 $1,768 $7,227 2.8x 4.2x 4.4x 0.9x 1.2x 1.0x 3.4x 4.6x 4.8x 3.1x 4.3x 4.7x $77.9 $66.7 $61.0
Ovintiv OVV DF NT US$54.78 US$65.00 1.6% 24.7% US$13,610 US$4,013 US$17,623 3.2x 2.5x 3.1x 1.0x 0.5x 0.6x 3.9x 2.9x 3.5x 3.6x 2.8x 3.5x $34.9 $28.8 $25.6
Suncor Energy SU DF OP $44.23 $60.00 4.2% 42.8% $59,679 $12,122 $71,801 3.2x 3.7x 3.6x 0.7x 0.5x 0.3x 3.8x 4.0x 3.8x 4.2x 4.9x 4.8x $94.9 $81.1 $69.2
Tourmaline TOU JK OP $76.66 $100.00 1.2% 31.6% $25,751 ($347) $25,404 5.2x 4.4x 5.2x -0.1x -0.7x -1.4x 5.1x 3.6x 3.7x 6.7x 5.0x 5.3x $50.4 $39.2 $32.6
Average 2.4% 32.0% 3.7x 3.5x 3.8x 0.5x 0.3x 0.0x 4.1x 3.7x 3.7x 4.6x 4.3x 4.5x $66.5 $55.7 $47.3
Oil-Weighted E&P
Baytex BTE DF NT $6.91 $8.50 0.0% 23.0% $3,778 $1,020 $4,798 3.3x 2.7x 3.6x 0.9x 0.4x 0.2x 4.2x 3.1x 3.5x 4.9x 3.7x 4.3x $57.4 $45.1 $39.7
Cardinal Energy CJ CT NT $8.11 $11.00 8.9% 44.5% $1,263 $36 $1,299 3.2x 3.8x 4.0x 0.1x -0.3x -0.6x 3.3x 3.5x 3.4x 4.4x 4.8x 4.8x $60.0 $52.7 $46.3
Crescent Point CPG DF OP $9.91 $16.00 3.2% 64.7% $5,314 $1,188 $6,502 2.2x 1.9x 2.2x 0.5x 0.2x 0.1x 2.6x 2.0x 2.2x 3.9x 3.2x 3.5x $49.2 $37.8 $30.9
Enerplus ERF JK OP US$15.66 US$22.00 1.7% 42.1% US$3,534 US$233 US$3,767 2.9x 3.0x 3.4x 0.2x -0.3x -0.8x 3.0x 2.7x 2.5x 4.1x 3.9x 3.9x US$38.0 US$31.5 US$25.2
Tamarack Valley TVE JK OP $4.23 $6.00 3.5% 45.4% $2,352 $1,308 $3,659 3.1x 2.4x 2.8x 1.7x 0.8x 0.6x 4.6x 3.0x 3.2x 5.8x 3.9x 4.3x $77.2 $44.0 $39.3
Vermilion VET DF NT $31.20 $36.00 1.0% 16.4% $4,950 $1,077 $6,028 2.3x 1.4x 2.1x 0.5x -0.2x -1.0x 2.7x 1.2x 1.0x 3.1x 1.4x 1.3x $69.9 $34.0 $20.9
Whitecap WCP DF OP $9.87 $15.00 4.5% 56.4% $6,106 $1,695 $7,801 2.5x 2.9x 3.4x 0.7x 0.4x 0.0x 3.1x 3.3x 3.4x 4.4x 4.8x 5.1x $54.5 $41.1 $35.9
Average 3.3% 41.8% 2.8x 2.6x 3.0x 0.7x 0.2x -0.2x 3.4x 2.7x 2.8x 4.4x 3.7x 3.9x $52.6 $36.4 $30.4
Gas-Weighted E&P
Advantage AAV JK NT $10.78 $13.50 0.0% 25.2% $1,996 $24 $2,020 3.6x 3.8x 4.7x 0.0x -0.4x -0.8x 3.6x 3.3x 3.8x 4.4x 4.3x 4.9x $36.3 $29.5 $25.0
Birchcliff BIR CT NT $10.73 $13.50 7.5% 33.3% $2,840 ($95) $2,745 2.7x 3.6x 4.7x -0.1x -0.5x -0.8x 2.6x 3.1x 3.8x 3.3x 4.0x 5.1x $35.3 $29.6 $27.9
Kelt KEL JK OP $5.83 $9.50 0.0% 63.0% $1,118 ($31) $1,086 3.2x 2.6x 2.7x -0.1x -0.3x -0.3x 3.1x 2.3x 2.3x 5.1x 3.9x 4.0x $38.1 $26.8 $21.2
NuVista NVA JK OP $11.80 $17.00 0.0% 44.1% $2,645 $176 $2,821 2.9x 2.8x 3.1x 0.2x -0.3x -0.8x 3.0x 2.5x 2.2x 4.2x 3.7x 3.6x $41.1 $27.6 $19.7
Peyto PEY CT NT $12.51 $18.00 11.5% 55.4% $2,132 $802 $2,934 2.5x 2.2x 2.3x 0.9x 0.5x 0.3x 3.3x 2.7x 2.5x 4.3x 3.6x 3.5x $28.1 $23.0 $19.3
Paramount POU JK NT $27.97 $37.50 4.3% 38.4% $3,949 ($323) $3,626 3.4x 3.2x 3.7x -0.3x -0.5x -0.8x 3.1x 2.7x 2.9x 4.3x 3.7x 4.1x $39.5 $29.9 $27.4
Spartan Delta SDE CT OP $11.71 $19.50 0.0% 66.5% $1,820 $75 $1,894 2.1x 2.0x 2.5x 0.1x -0.5x -1.0x 2.2x 1.5x 1.5x 3.6x 2.8x 3.2x $26.2 $17.7 $13.7
Average 3.9% 43.2% 2.9x 2.9x 3.4x 0.1x -0.3x -0.6x 3.0x 2.6x 2.7x 4.2x 3.7x 4.0x $34.9 $26.3 $22.0
Royalty Co's
Freehold FRU JK NT $15.95 $18.00 6.8% 19.6% $2,403 $92 $2,495 7.3x 7.9x 9.3x 0.3x -0.2x -0.6x 7.5x 7.7x 8.8x 8.4x 8.7x 10.0x $177.7 $158.7 $151.6
PrairieSky PSK JK OP $19.69 $26.00 2.4% 34.5% $4,700 $225 $4,925 9.3x 10.7x 12.5x 0.4x -0.2x -0.9x 9.4x 10.4x 11.7x 12.2x 13.8x 15.8x $198.7 $190.3 $184.1
Topaz TPZ JK OP $22.16 $29.00 5.4% 36.3% $3,088 $380 $3,468 9.0x 8.5x 8.9x 1.1x 0.5x 0.0x 9.8x 8.7x 8.8x 12.4x 11.2x 11.5x $205.5 $168.5 $150.1
Notes: 1) nm = not meaningful, NT = Neutral, OP = Outperformer, UN = Underperformer, R = restricted, N/A = not available; 2) CT - Chris Thompson, DF - Dennis Fong, JK - Jamie Kubik 3) Price targets are 12 to 18 months.
28
Exhibit 32: Energy – Operating Metrics (Strip Deck), 2022E-2024E

Production (Mboe/d) PPS Growth (%) DAPPS Growth (%) % Gas (%) CAPEX ($MM) Total Payout (%) CF ($MM) FCF Yield (%)
Company Ticker Analyst 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E

ARC ARX JK 344.1 357.2 381.3 6% 8% 7% 35% 20% 19% 61% 61% 60% $1,456 $2,000 $1,950 47% 63% 65% $3,778 $3,642 $3,470 20% 14% 13%
Canadian Natural CNQ DF 1,299.5 1,355.8 1,384.3 8% 12% 11% 11% 28% 31% 27% 28% 27% $4,902 $5,135 $4,751 49% 45% 46% $19,656 $18,590 $16,790 18% 17% 15%
Cenovus Energy CVE DF 787.0 808.9 818.3 2% 14% 12% 10% 42% 70% 19% 19% 19% $3,419 $3,950 $3,773 32% 30% 31% $12,785 $15,852 $14,322 20% 26% 23%
Imperial Oil IMO DF 419.7 430.8 444.4 7% 18% 20% 15% 34% 39% 4% 3% 3% $1,504 $1,644 $1,696 25% 27% 32% $9,531 $9,019 $7,289 20% 19% 14%
MEG Energy MEG DF 92.8 96.8 95.0 -1% 12% 6% 13% 31% 26% 0% 0% 0% $382 $413 $359 20% 34% 34% $1,927 $1,212 $1,061 28% 15% 13%
Ovintiv OVV DF 505.3 520.3 530.6 -3% 11% 11% 4% 25% 36% 48% 48% 48% US$1,817 US$2,125 US$2,075 49% 48% 62% US$4,217 US$4,967 US$3,672 18% 21% 12%
Suncor Energy SU DF 756.6 780.1 815.5 10% 9% 12% 15% 34% 37% 0% 0% 0% $4,924 $4,985 $5,146 40% 49% 51% $18,575 $15,136 $14,499 23% 17% 16%
Tourmaline TOU JK 504.3 545.9 568.4 6% 8% 4% 18% 30% 22% 77% 78% 78% $1,590 $1,600 $1,800 70% 32% 42% $4,961 $5,895 $4,974 13% 17% 12%
Average 4% 11% 10% 15% 30% 35% 30% 30% 29% 41% 41% 46% 20% 18% 15%
Oil-Weighted E&P
Baytex BTE DF 83.6 89.7 92.3 34% 28% 15% 34% 28% 15% 17% 16% 16% $515 $579 $588 45% 44% 61% $1,147 $1,314 $966 17% 19% 10%
Cardinal Energy CJ CT 21.6 22.4 23.3 8% 4% 4% 44% 15% 14% 12% 12% 12% $120 $85 $85 46% 59% 62% $390 $337 $318 21% 20% 18%
Crescent Point CPG DF 132.3 137.9 140.8 0% 17% 14% 44% 28% 24% 17% 17% 17% $958 $1,076 $949 44% 49% 56% $2,470 $2,505 $1,947 28% 27% 19%
Enerplus ERF JK 99.1 100.1 106.0 16% 5% 6% 50% 22% 21% 38% 38% 37% US$437 US$520 US$520 39% 48% 54% US$1,237 US$1,173 US$1,050 29% 24% 20%
Tamarack Valley TVE JK 47.4 72.3 72.7 9% 23% 1% 2% 50% 10% 25% 19% 19% $460 $425 $425 68% 52% 61% $753 $987 $837 12% 24% 18%
Vermilion VET DF 86.2 105.4 102.7 64% 97% 77% 66% 105% 57% 48% 55% 54% $555 $557 $533 60% 20% 28% $2,118 $3,054 $2,025 32% 50% 30%
Whitecap WCP DF 143.2 170.6 171.9 27% 19% 1% 29% 32% 16% 29% 34% 34% $706 $975 $1,120 38% 60% 78% $2,445 $2,070 $1,792 28% 18% 11%
Average 23% 28% 17% 39% 40% 22% 26% 27% 27% 49% 47% 57% 24% 26% 18%
Gas-Weighted E&P
Advantage AAV JK 55.7 60.2 65.9 17% 11% 9% 49% 28% 19% 89% 88% 88% $224 $275 $275 40% 53% 64% $553 $520 $429 16% 12% 8%
Birchcliff BIR CT 77.7 82.8 83.8 0% 7% 1% 45% 21% 7% 81% 81% 81% $278 $270 $280 28% 61% 81% $1,043 $790 $608 27% 18% 12%
Kelt KEL JK 28.5 37.4 46.1 32% 30% 23% 39% 40% 26% 64% 62% 60% $301 $350 $400 85% 80% 95% $352 $436 $421 5% 8% 2%
NuVista NVA JK 68.7 85.4 98.8 29% 26% 16% 104% 51% 41% 59% 59% 59% $410 $460 $435 45% 50% 51% $908 $929 $846 19% 18% 16%
Peyto PEY CT 104.5 115.3 123.6 12% 11% 7% 35% 31% 28% 83% 83% 83% $446 $425 $425 65% 70% 72% $846 $959 $930 19% 25% 24%
Paramount POU JK 91.7 110.1 114.2 14% 20% 4% 33% 28% 8% 56% 56% 57% $641 $700 $700 70% 70% 81% $1,147 $1,242 $1,079 13% 14% 10%
Spartan Delta SDE CT 72.2 78.7 79.2 18% 10% 1% 100% 150% 390% 58% 56% 56% $421 $420 $420 49% 45% 58% $851 $929 $724 24% 28% 17%
Average 17% 16% 9% 58% 50% 74% 70% 69% 69% 55% 61% 72% 17% 18% 12%
Royalty Co's
Freehold FRU JK 14.0 14.8 14.9 7% 5% 0% 12% 13% 6% 39% 38% 39% $0 $0 $0 45% 54% 63% $328 $303 $258 14% 13% 11%
PrairieSky PSK JK 24.8 24.2 23.6 17% -3% -2% 33% 5% 5% 42% 41% 40% $0 $0 $0 23% 26% 31% $508 $440 $374 11% 9% 8%
Topaz TPZ JK 16.9 19.4 20.6 3% 18% 6% 2% 24% 12% 75% 70% 69% $3 $2 $2 46% 46% 49% $343 $364 $345 11% 12% 11%
Average 9% 7% 1% 15% 14% 8% 52% 50% 49% 38% 42% 48% 12% 11% 10%
29
Exhibit 33: Energy – Valuation Metrics (Base Deck), 2022E - 2024E

Price Yield Total Rtn Mkt Cap 2022E Net Debt EV P/CF D/CF EV/DACF Target EV/DACF EV/Boe/d ($K/Boe/d)
Company Ticker Analyst Rating 5-Oct-22 Target % % (MM) (MM) (MM) 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E
ARC ARX JK OP $18.46 $25.00 2.6% 38.0% $11,758 $1,820 $13,578 3.1x 3.3x 3.7x 0.5x 0.2x -0.1x 3.5x 3.4x 3.5x 4.6x 4.6x 4.7x $39.5 $34.6 $29.9
Canadian Natural CNQ DF OP $73.23 $90.00 6.0% 28.9% $80,403 $12,629 $93,032 4.1x 4.2x 4.2x 0.6x 0.5x 0.4x 4.6x 4.5x 4.5x 4.9x 5.0x 5.0x $71.6 $61.6 $54.4
Cenovus Energy CVE DF OP $24.51 $32.00 1.5% 32.1% $45,772 $8,024 $53,796 3.7x 3.0x 3.5x 0.6x 0.2x 0.1x 4.2x 3.2x 3.6x 4.6x 3.9x 4.5x $68.4 $55.1 $46.9
Imperial Oil IMO DF NT $64.87 $80.00 2.1% 25.4% $39,261 $490 $39,751 4.1x 4.0x 3.6x 0.1x 0.2x 0.1x 4.2x 4.2x 3.7x 5.1x 4.9x 4.5x $94.7 $83.1 $67.7
MEG Energy MEG DF NT $18.27 $22.00 0.0% 20.4% $5,459 $1,771 $7,230 2.9x 4.1x 3.8x 0.9x 1.1x 0.8x 3.4x 4.5x 4.2x 3.1x 4.3x 4.1x $78.0 $66.1 $59.2
Ovintiv OVV DF NT US$54.78 US$65.00 1.6% 20.3% US$13,610 US$4,044 US$17,654 3.3x 2.4x 3.2x 1.0x 0.5x 0.5x 3.9x 2.8x 3.6x 3.6x 2.8x 3.6x $34.9 $28.6 $25.5
Suncor Energy SU DF OP $44.23 $60.00 4.2% 39.9% $59,679 $12,122 $71,801 3.2x 3.7x 3.6x 0.7x 0.5x 0.3x 3.8x 4.0x 3.8x 4.2x 4.9x 4.8x $94.9 $81.5 $69.5
Tourmaline TOU JK OP $76.66 $100.00 1.2% 31.6% $25,751 ($345) $25,406 5.2x 4.6x 5.9x -0.1x -0.7x -1.4x 5.1x 3.9x 4.4x 6.7x 5.3x 6.2x $50.4 $39.7 $34.2
Average 2.4% 29.6% 3.7x 3.7x 3.9x 0.5x 0.3x 0.1x 4.1x 3.8x 3.9x 4.6x 4.4x 4.7x $66.5 $56.3 $48.4
Oil-Weighted E&P
Baytex BTE DF NT $6.91 $8.50 0.0% 23.0% $3,778 $1,009 $4,786 3.3x 2.7x 3.3x 0.9x 0.3x 0.2x 4.2x 3.1x 3.2x 4.9x 3.7x 3.9x $57.2 $44.9 $38.6
Cardinal Energy CJ CT NT $8.11 $11.00 8.9% 44.5% $1,263 $39 $1,302 3.3x 3.7x 3.6x 0.1x -0.3x -0.6x 3.3x 3.4x 2.9x 4.5x 4.8x 4.2x $60.2 $52.6 $44.6
Crescent Point CPG DF OP $9.91 $16.00 3.2% 64.7% $5,356 $1,203 $6,559 2.2x 2.1x 2.2x 0.5x 0.3x 0.1x 2.6x 2.3x 2.3x 4.0x 3.5x 3.6x $49.6 $39.5 $32.9
Enerplus ERF JK OP US$15.66 US$22.00 1.7% 42.1% US$3,534 US$237 US$3,772 2.9x 3.0x 3.3x 0.2x -0.3x -0.8x 3.0x 2.7x 2.5x 4.2x 3.9x 3.9x US$38.0 US$31.6 US$25.2
Tamarack Valley TVE JK OP $4.23 $6.00 3.5% 45.4% $2,352 $1,312 $3,663 3.1x 2.4x 2.6x 1.8x 0.8x 0.5x 4.6x 3.0x 2.9x 5.9x 3.9x 3.9x $77.3 $44.1 $38.3
Vermilion VET DF NT $31.20 $36.00 1.0% 16.4% $4,954 $1,079 $6,033 2.4x 1.4x 2.2x 0.5x -0.2x -1.0x 2.8x 1.2x 1.2x 3.1x 1.5x 1.5x $70.0 $35.0 $23.1
Whitecap WCP DF OP $9.87 $15.00 4.5% 56.4% $6,106 $1,725 $7,831 2.5x 3.0x 3.5x 0.7x 0.5x 0.1x 3.2x 3.3x 3.5x 4.5x 4.8x 5.2x $54.7 $41.5 $36.4
Gas-Weighted E&P
Advantage AAV JK NT $10.78 $13.50 0.0% 25.2% $1,996 $33 $2,029 3.7x 4.1x 5.9x 0.1x -0.4x -0.6x 3.6x 3.6x 5.1x 4.5x 4.6x 6.6x $36.4 $30.2 $27.0
Birchcliff BIR CT NT $10.73 $13.50 7.5% 33.3% $2,840 ($89) $2,751 2.7x 3.9x 5.9x -0.1x -0.4x -0.6x 2.6x 3.5x 5.2x 3.3x 4.5x 6.7x $35.4 $30.5 $30.2
Kelt KEL JK OP $5.83 $9.50 0.0% 63.0% $1,118 ($28) $1,090 3.2x 2.6x 2.9x -0.1x -0.2x -0.2x 3.1x 2.4x 2.7x 5.1x 4.0x 4.5x $38.2 $27.2 $22.4
NuVista NVA JK OP $11.80 $17.00 0.0% 44.1% $2,645 $189 $2,835 3.0x 3.0x 3.4x 0.2x -0.3x -0.7x 3.0x 2.7x 2.6x 4.3x 3.9x 4.0x $41.3 $28.3 $21.1
Peyto PEY CT NT $12.51 $18.00 11.5% 55.4% $2,132 $813 $2,945 2.6x 2.3x 2.6x 1.0x 0.6x 0.5x 3.3x 2.8x 3.1x 4.4x 3.7x 4.2x $28.2 $23.2 $20.5
Paramount POU JK NT $27.97 $37.50 4.3% 38.4% $3,949 ($306) $3,644 3.5x 3.3x 4.0x -0.3x -0.5x -0.7x 3.2x 2.8x 3.3x 4.4x 3.9x 4.7x $39.7 $30.5 $28.8
Spartan Delta SDE CT OP $11.71 $19.50 0.0% 66.5% $1,820 $82 $1,901 2.2x 2.0x 2.8x 0.1x -0.4x -1.0x 2.2x 1.6x 1.8x 3.6x 3.0x 3.7x $26.3 $18.2 $15.1
Average 3.9% 43.2% 3.0x 3.0x 3.9x 0.1x -0.2x -0.5x 3.0x 2.8x 3.4x 4.2x 4.0x 4.9x $35.1 $26.9 $23.6
Royalty Co's
Freehold FRU JK NT $15.95 $18.00 6.8% 19.6% $2,403 $94 $2,498 7.4x 8.1x 9.5x 0.3x -0.1x -0.5x 7.6x 7.9x 9.0x 8.5x 8.9x 10.2x $177.9 $159.3 $152.5
PrairieSky PSK JK OP $19.69 $26.00 2.4% 34.5% $4,700 $228 $4,928 9.3x 10.8x 12.8x 0.5x -0.2x -0.9x 9.4x 10.5x 12.0x 12.3x 13.9x 16.2x $198.8 $190.6 $184.8
Topaz TPZ JK OP $22.16 $29.00 5.4% 36.3% $3,088 $380 $3,468 9.0x 8.7x 9.7x 1.1x 0.5x 0.1x 9.8x 8.9x 9.6x 12.4x 11.4x 12.5x $205.5 $168.9 $151.7
30
Exhibit 34: Energy – Operating Metrics (Base Deck), 2022E -2024E

Production (Mboe/d) PPS Growth (%) DAPPS Growth (%) % Gas (%) CAPEX ($MM) Total Payout (%) CF ($MM) FCF Yield (%)
Company Ticker Analyst 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E
ARC ARX JK 344.1 357.2 381.3 6% 8% 7% 35% 18% 16% 61% 61% 60% $1,456 $2,000 $1,950 47% 66% 70% $3,748 $3,514 $3,207 19% 13% 11%
Canadian Natural CNQ DF 1,299.5 1,355.8 1,384.3 8% 12% 10% 11% 16% 12% 27% 28% 27% $4,902 $5,135 $4,751 50% 47% 47% $19,619 $17,944 $16,422 18% 17% 17%
Cenovus Energy CVE DF 787.0 808.9 818.3 2% 13% 12% 10% 23% 17% 19% 19% 19% $3,419 $3,950 $3,773 33% 34% 42% $12,430 $13,679 $10,636 20% 24% 18%
Imperial Oil IMO DF 419.7 430.8 444.4 7% 18% 20% 15% 14% 22% 4% 3% 3% $1,501 $1,626 $1,680 25% 28% 29% $9,461 $8,494 $8,059 20% 20% 22%
MEG Energy MEG DF 92.8 96.8 95.0 -1% 11% 7% 13% 17% 11% 0% 0% 0% $382 $413 $359 20% 34% 30% $1,901 $1,223 $1,198 28% 16% 18%
Ovintiv OVV DF 505.3 520.3 530.6 -3% 11% 11% 4% 21% 14% 48% 48% 48% US$1,817 US$2,125 US$2,075 49% 46% 64% US$4,187 US$5,108 US$3,600 17% 24% 13%
Suncor Energy SU DF 756.6 780.1 815.5 10% 9% 12% 15% 16% 17% 0% 0% 0% $4,924 $5,345 $5,146 40% 51% 51% $18,575 $15,204 $14,516 23% 17% 18%
Tourmaline TOU JK 504.3 545.9 568.4 6% 8% 4% 18% 28% 18% 77% 78% 78% $1,590 $1,600 $1,800 70% 34% 48% $4,959 $5,609 $4,383 13% 16% 10%
Average 4% 11% 10% 15% 19% 16% 30% 30% 29% 42% 43% 48% 20% 18% 16%
Oil-Weighted E&P
Baytex BTE DF 83.6 89.7 92.3 35% 28% 17% 35% 28% 17% 17% 16% 16% $515 $579 $588 45% 44% 56% $1,151 $1,305 $1,044 17% 20% 13%
Cardinal Energy CJ CT 21.6 22.4 23.3 8% 4% 4% 43% 15% 18% 12% 12% 12% $120 $85 $85 46% 58% 56% $386 $342 $354 21% 20% 21%
Crescent Point CPG DF 132.3 137.2 140.0 0% 14% 12% 44% 24% 21% 17% 17% 17% $958 $1,101 $1,015 45% 54% 58% $2,410 $2,344 $2,000 27% 26% 22%
Enerplus ERF JK 99.1 100.1 106.0 16% 5% 6% 50% 22% 22% 38% 38% 37% US$437 US$520 US$520 39% 48% 53% US$1,232 US$1,176 US$1,060 29% 24% 20%
Tamarack Valley TVE JK 47.4 72.3 72.7 9% 23% 1% 2% 50% 13% 25% 19% 19% $460 $425 $425 68% 52% 56% $749 $985 $915 12% 24% 21%
Vermilion VET DF 86.2 105.4 102.7 64% 94% 63% 66% 100% 47% 48% 55% 54% $555 $557 $533 60% 21% 30% $2,103 $2,923 $1,915 31% 56% 33%
Whitecap WCP DF 143.2 170.6 171.9 27% 19% 1% 29% 31% 15% 29% 34% 34% $706 $975 $1,120 39% 61% 79% $2,414 $2,042 $1,767 28% 17% 11%
Average 23% 27% 15% 38% 39% 22% 26% 27% 27% 49% 48% 55% 24% 27% 20%
Gas-Weighted E&P
Advantage AAV JK 55.7 60.2 65.9 17% 11% 9% 48% 25% 12% 89% 88% 88% $224 $275 $275 41% 56% 82% $544 $489 $337 16% 11% 3%
Birchcliff BIR CT 77.7 82.8 83.8 0% 7% 1% 44% 18% 1% 81% 81% 81% $278 $270 $280 29% 66% 102% $1,037 $726 $484 27% 16% 7%
Kelt KEL JK 28.5 37.4 46.1 32% 30% 23% 38% 39% 22% 64% 62% 60% $301 $350 $400 86% 82% 104% $348 $425 $383 4% 7% -1%
NuVista NVA JK 68.7 85.4 98.8 29% 26% 16% 103% 48% 35% 59% 59% 59% $410 $460 $435 46% 52% 56% $894 $880 $774 18% 16% 13%
Peyto PEY CT 104.5 115.3 123.6 12% 11% 7% 34% 29% 17% 83% 83% 83% $446 $425 $425 66% 72% 83% $834 $935 $810 18% 24% 18%
Paramount POU JK 91.7 110.1 114.2 14% 20% 4% 33% 27% 5% 56% 56% 57% $641 $700 $700 71% 73% 89% $1,129 $1,195 $981 12% 13% 7%
Spartan Delta SDE CT 72.2 78.7 79.2 18% 10% 1% 98% 127% 123% 58% 56% 56% $421 $420 $420 50% 47% 64% $844 $892 $651 23% 26% 13%
Average 17% 16% 9% 57% 45% 31% 70% 69% 69% 55% 64% 83% 17% 16% 9%
Royalty Co's
Freehold FRU JK 14.0 14.8 14.9 7% 5% 0% 11% 13% 6% 39% 38% 39% $0 $0 $0 45% 55% 64% $325 $296 $253 14% 12% 11%
PrairieSky PSK JK 24.8 24.2 23.6 17% -3% -2% 33% 5% 4% 42% 41% 40% $0 $0 $0 23% 26% 31% $504 $435 $366 11% 9% 8%
Topaz TPZ JK 16.9 19.4 20.6 3% 18% 6% 2% 24% 11% 75% 70% 69% $3 $2 $2 46% 47% 53% $343 $357 $319 11% 11% 10%
Average 9% 7% 1% 15% 14% 7% 52% 50% 49% 38% 43% 50% 12% 11% 10%
31
Exhibit 35: Oilfield Services – Valuation Metrics, 2022E – 2024E

Price Div. Yield Total Return Mkt Cap Net Debt EV P/CF EV/EBITDA Target EV/EBITDA Net Debt/EBITDA
Company Name Ticker Currency Analyst Rating 5-Oct-22 Target (% ) (% ) (MM) (MM) ($MM) 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E
Drilling Contractors
Ensign Energy Services ESI CAD JK NT $2.55 $4.50 0% 76% $472 $1,162 $1,633 2.2x 1.6x 1.5x 5.3x 4.0x 3.6x 6.4x 4.9x 4.5x 3.9x 2.8x 2.5x
Helmerich & Payne HP USD NR NR $43.19 NR 2% NR $4,547 $206 $4,754 33.4x 17.7x 6.8x 67.1x 11.8x 5.1x NR NR NR -1.4x 0.5x -0.1x
Nabors Industries NBR USD NR NR $129.03 NR 0% NR $1,214 $2,078 $3,293 2.8x 2.5x 1.8x 7.2x 4.8x 3.1x NR NR NR 4.7x 3.1x 1.9x
Patterson UTI PTEN USD NR NR $14.31 NR 1% NR $3,103 $736 $3,839 29.0x 6.4x 4.0x 22.4x 6.3x 3.7x NR NR NR 4.3x 1.2x 0.4x
Precision Drilling PD CAD JK NT $79.36 $110 0% 39% $1,086 $767 $1,853 4.0x 2.8x 2.7x 5.3x 3.8x 3.2x 6.4x 4.7x 4.1x 2.5x 1.6x 1.0x
Group Average 1% 17.3x 7.4x 3.8x 25.5x 6.7x 3.8x 2.5x 1.6x 0.8x
Compression
Enerflex EFX CAD JK NT $6.70 $10.00 1% 51% $829 $1,240 $2,069 3.6x 2.2x 2.0x 9.6x 4.1x 3.1x 11.5x 4.9x 3.9x 5.7x 2.4x 1.6x
Exterran Corporation EXTN USD NR NR $4.95 NR 0% NR $165 $617 $782 2.0x 2.2x 1.2x 4.7x 4.5x 4.2x NR NR NR 3.6x 3.5x 3.3x
Total Energy Services TOT USD NR NR $7.20 NR 0% NR $303 $91 $394 5.2x 3.8x 3.1x 6.8x 4.4x 3.2x NR NR NR 2.1x 1.0x 0.4x
USA Compression Partners USAC USD NR NR $18.03 NR 12% NR $1,766 $2,064 $3,830 6.3x 6.5x 5.9x 9.4x 9.2x 8.7x NR NR NR 4.9x 4.9x 4.7x
Waste Management
Clean Harbors CLH USD NR NR $119.13 NR 0% NR $6,445 $1,841 $8,286 11.8x 9.8x 9.1x 12.6x 8.4x 7.9x NR NR NR 3.1x 1.9x 1.6x
Republic Services RSG USD NR NR $141.17 NR 1% NR $44,600 $11,693 $56,294 16.0x 14.6x N/A 16.0x 14.3x 12.9x NR NR NR 2.8x 3.0x 2.5x
Secure Energy Services SES CAD JK OP $6.44 $8.50 0% 32% $1,996 $528 $2,524 4.6x 4.8x 4.4x 5.5x 4.9x 4.2x 6.7x 6.1x 5.4x 1.6x 1.0x 0.3x
Notes: 1) nm = not meaningful, NT = Neutral, OP = Outperformer, UN = Underperformer, R = Restricted, N/A = Not Available, NR = Not Rated; 2) JK – Jamie Kubik 3) Price targets are 12 to 18 months.
32
Price Target Calculations And Key Risks To Price Targets

Advantage: Our 12- to 18-month price target of $13.50 is based on a target 2023 EV/DACF
multiple of 4.3x on strip pricing. We estimate strip net debt of -$221MM in 2023. The primary
sector risks to the company achieving its price target include the risk of a decline in
commodity prices and rising industry costs. The company specific risks to achieving its price
target include the risk of degrading liquids yields, higher-than-expected production decline
rates and unplanned facility (Glacier) downtime.
Canadian Natural Resources: Our 12- to 18-month price target of $90.00 is based on 1.1x
our RNAV and maps to a 2023E EV/DACF multiple of 4.8x and FCF yield of 13.9% on our
base price deck, including current net debt of $12.6B, including leases. If commodity prices
were to decline sharply, especially for sustained periods of time, Canadian Natural’s revenue,
cash flows, and financial flexibility would become more challenged. And while the company
typically engages in some form of financial hedging to protect against these risks, the
platform tends to be fairly under-hedged and exposed to commodity price fluctuations.
Enerplus: Our 12- to 18-month price target of US$22.00 is based on a target 2023 EV/DACF
sector risks to our price target include the risk of a decline in commodity prices and rising
industry costs. The company specific risks to our price target include the risk of degrading
liquids yields, higher-than-expected production decline rates and unplanned facility downtime.
NuVista: Our 12- to 18-month price target of $17.00 is based on a target 2023 EV/DACF
liquids yields, higher-than-expected production decline rates and unplanned facility downtime.
Imperial Oil: Our 12- to 18-month price target of $80.00 is based on 1.1x our RNAV and
maps to a 2023E EV/DACF multiple of 4.6x and FCF yield of 16.3% on our base price deck,
including current net debt of $0.5B, including leases. If commodity prices were to decline
sharply, especially for sustained periods of time, Imperial Oil's revenue, cash flows and
financial flexibility would become more challenged. And while the company typically engages
in some form of financial hedging to protect against these risks, the platform tends to be fairly
under-hedged and exposed to commodity price fluctuations.
Ovintiv: Our 12- to 18-month price target of US$65.00 is based on 1.0x our RNAV and maps
to a 2023E EV/DACF multiple of 2.8x and FCF yield of 20.2% on our base price deck,
including current net debt of US$4.0B, including leases. If commodity prices were to decline
sharply, especially for sustained periods of time, Ovintiv's revenue, cash flows and financial
flexibility would become more challenged. Additionally, continued execution of its drilling
program is critical to realizing its communicated growth plans, and any significant cost
inflation, type curve degradation or other operational risks could jeopardize them.
Paramount: Our 12- to 18-month price target of $37.50 is based on a target 2023 EV/DACF
liquids yields, unplanned facility downtime, and financial liquidity constraints.
Precision: Our $110.00 price target is based on a multiple of 4.7x EV/EBITDA for 2023E,
accounting for net debt of $767MM. Our target multiple sits at the low end of Precision’s
historical trading range of 4.0x-6.0x. If commodity prices were to decline sharply, especially
for sustained periods, Precision’s customers may choose to curtail their capital programs,
which would have a negative impact on the company's long-term contract portfolio, utilization
rates and pricing power. Price-based competition or an inflating cost structure could reduce
profitability and our price target. A large and sustained increase in the Canadian dollar would
33
have a negative impact on Precision’s revenue and margins in it's United States and
International segments. The company generates the majority of its revenue and cash flow
from the global oil and natural gas industry and is exposed to potential hardship due to any
changes in regulatory structure of new or existing projects.
Secure: Our $8.50 price target uses a 6.1x EV/EBITDA multiple in 2023E (note EV is based
on our estimate of end-of-year shares outstanding and net debt of $528MM). Our target
multiple reflects a premium to its Canadian energy service company comparables and
compares to the historical trading range of 6x to 7x forward EV/EBITDA. We believe a strong
valuation is warranted given the stability of the company’s cash flows, leverage to production-
based activity levels, exposure to environmental stewardship from the industry, excellent
long-term growth potential and management’s proven ability to deliver accretive and
sustainable growth. If commodity prices were to decline sharply, especially for sustained
periods, SECURE’s customers may choose to further curtail their capital programs and
reduce oil and gas production, which would have a negative impact on demand for
SECURE’s services. Price-based competition or an inflating cost structure could reduce
profitability and our price target. The ability to transport waste depends on weather
conditions, which can affect SECURE’s business, as well as environmental regulations,
which impose specific responsibilities and liabilities on the company’s operations. In the event
that the Competition Bureau succeeds in challenging the combination of SECURE with
Tervita and the impact is beyond an immaterial level to EBITDA generation, a greater-than-
expected impact could effect our view of the future cash flow generation of the business.
SECURE’s operations can involve the assumption of environmental liability and potential for
environmental contamination. While the company maintains insurance and follows strict
design and operational procedures and policies, a potential environmental impairment and
liability claim could have an adverse effect on the company’s business, financial condition
and results of operations.
Suncor: Our 12- to 18-month price target of $60.00 is based on 0.8x our RNAV and maps to
a 2023E EV/DACF multiple of 4.9x and FCF yield of 13.3% on our base price deck, including
current net debt of $12.1B, including leases. If commodity prices were to decline sharply,
especially for sustained periods of time, Suncor's revenue, cash flows and financial flexibility
would become more challenged. And while the company's downstream operations provide
some form of a natural hedge to declining crude prices, oil products pricing tends to take hits
somewhat in lockstep with commodity price downturns and, thus, this wouldn't fully protect
the platform.
34
CIBC Ratings and Price Targets

Price Target Price Target Rating Rating
Ticker Price Prior Current Prior Current
AAV-CA C$10.57 C$13.00 C$13.50 Neutral Neutral
CNQ-CA C$74.24 C$85.00 C$90.00 Outperformer Outperformer
ERF-US US$16.15 US$20.00 US$22.00 Outperformer Outperformer
IMO-CA C$65.97 C$74.00 C$80.00 Neutral Neutral
NVA-CA C$12.25 C$15.00 C$17.00 Outperformer Outperformer
OVV-US US$55.78 US$60.00 US$65.00 Neutral Neutral
POU-CA C$28.73 C$40.00 C$37.50 Neutral Neutral
PD-CA C$81.39 C$120.00 C$110.00 Neutral Neutral
SES-CA C$6.51 C$8.00 C$8.50 Outperformer Outperformer
SU-CA C$45.11 C$65.00 C$60.00 Outperformer Outperformer
Changes To CIBC Estimates

Ticker Earnings Type FYE 2022 Prior 2022 Current 2023 Prior 2023 Current 2024 Prior 2024 Current
AAV-CA CFPS Dec C$2.87 C$2.85 C$2.46 C$2.64 C$1.93 C$1.82
ARX-CA CFPS Dec C$5.25 C$5.58 C$5.14 C$5.42 C$4.65 C$4.95
BTE-CA CFPS Dec C$2.18 C$2.06 C$2.94 C$2.47 C$2.14 C$2.07
BIR-CA CFPS Dec C$3.52 C$3.83 C$2.54 C$2.69 C$1.87 C$1.79
CNQ-CA CFPS Dec C$16.58 C$17.00 C$17.18 C$16.63 C$15.87 C$16.43
CJ-CA CFPS Dec C$2.58 C$2.41 C$2.43 C$2.14 C$2.13 C$2.22
CVE-CA CFPS Dec C$7.31 C$6.26 C$10.01 C$7.60 C$6.67 C$6.55
CPG-CA CFPS Dec C$4.26 C$4.22 C$5.32 C$4.51 C$4.09 C$4.23
EFX-CA Adj. EBITDA Dec C$220.47 C$215.89 C$487.48 C$488.45 C$539.45 C$540.53
ERF-US CFPS Dec US$5.04 US$5.10 US$5.10 US$5.05 US$4.38 US$4.55
ESI-CA Adj. EBITDA Dec C$311.13 C$332.16 C$385.93 C$408.44 C$388.30 C$411.72
FRU-CA CFPS Dec C$2.18 C$2.15 C$2.03 C$1.95 C$1.66 C$1.66
IMO-CA CFPS Dec C$14.69 C$14.60 C$17.50 C$15.04 C$16.24 C$16.57
KEL-CA CFPS Dec C$1.83 C$1.78 C$2.23 C$2.16 C$1.97 C$1.94
MEG-CA CFPS Dec C$6.31 C$6.12 C$4.60 C$4.20 C$4.21 C$4.46
NVA-CA CFPS Dec C$3.47 C$3.76 C$3.72 C$3.74 C$3.14 C$3.29
OVV-US CFPS Dec US$17.79 US$16.35 US$22.59 US$21.56 US$17.18 US$16.50
POU-CA CFPS Dec C$7.69 C$7.96 C$8.64 C$8.40 C$6.81 C$6.89
PEY-CA CFPS Dec C$4.78 C$4.84 C$5.45 C$5.48 C$5.08 C$4.75
PSK-CA CFPS Dec C$2.15 C$2.10 C$1.87 C$1.81 C$1.51 C$1.52
PD-CA Adj. EBITDA Dec C$357.39 C$387.78 C$481.31 C$486.36 C$504.93 C$495.19
SES-CA Adj. EBITDA Dec C$512.31 C$516.89 C$513.60 C$517.38 C$516.82 C$524.34
SDE-CA CFPS Dec C$4.92 C$4.90 C$5.03 C$5.21 C$3.79 C$3.80
SU-CA CFPS Dec C$14.05 C$13.33 C$14.19 C$11.46 C$12.97 C$11.75
TVE-CA CFPS Dec C$1.71 C$1.65 C$1.97 C$1.75 C$1.61 C$1.63
TPZ-CA CFPS Dec C$2.44 C$2.38 C$2.64 C$2.53 C$2.34 C$2.27
TOU-CA CFPS Dec C$14.49 C$14.49 C$14.56 C$16.33 C$11.09 C$12.76
VET-CA CFPS Dec C$13.01 C$12.69 C$20.75 C$20.50 C$13.01 C$13.43
WCP-CA CFPS Dec C$4.00 C$3.90 C$3.49 C$3.30 C$2.93 C$2.86
35
Important Disclosures
Analyst Certification: Each CIBC World Markets Inc. research analyst named on the front page of this research report, or
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accurately reflect such research analyst's personal views about the company and securities that are the subject of this
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or views expressed by such research analyst in this report.
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CIBC World Markets Inc. Stock Rating System

Stock Ratings Abbreviation Description
Outperformer OP Stock is expected to outperform similar stocks in the coverage universe during the next 12-18 months.
Neutral NT Stock is expected to perform in line with similar stocks in the coverage universe during the next 12-18 months.
Underperformer UN Stock is expected to underperform similar stocks in the coverage universe during the next 12-18 months.
Tender TR Shareholders are advised to tender shares to a specific offer as we do not believe a superior offer will materialize.
Not Rated NR CIBC World Markets does not maintain an investment recommendation on the stock.
Restricted R CIBC World Markets is restricted (due to potential conflict of interest) from rating the stock.
Sector Ratings Abbreviation Description

Overweight O Sector is expected to outperform the broader market averages.
Marketweight M Sector is expected to equal the performance of the broader market averages.
Underweight U Sector is expected to underperform the broader market averages.
None NA Sector rating is not applicable.
Note: Broader market averages refer to S&P 500 in the U.S. and S&P/TSX Composite in Canada.
36
CIBC World Markets Inc. Price Chart

For price and performance charts, please visit CIBC on the web at https://researchcentral.cibccm.com/#/disclaimer-central-
new or write to CIBC World Markets Inc., 161 Bay Street, 4th Floor, Toronto, ON M5H 2S8, Attn: Research Disclosure
Chart Request.
Important Disclosure Footnotes

For important disclosure footnotes for companies mentioned in this report that are covered by CIBC World Markets Inc., click
here: CIBC Disclaimers & Disclosures
Ratings Distribution*: CIBC World Markets Inc. Coverage Universe

(as of 06 Oct 2022) Count Percent Inv. Banking Relationships Count Percent
Outperformer 162 52% Outperformer 162 100%
Neutral 140 45% Neutral 140 100%
Underperformer 6 2% Underperformer 6 100%
Tender 3 1% Tender 2 67%
Restricted 2 1% Restricted 2 100%
Important disclosures for each issuer can be found by visiting the Research Central website at
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Disclosures Request.
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37
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EQUITY RESEARCH Dennis Fong, P.Eng.

Jamie Kubik, CPA, CA

October 6, 2022 Earnings Revision

Energy: Q3/22 Preview & Price Deck Update

All figures in Canadian dollars otherwise stated.

Crude Oil Outlook

Source: JODI and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Exhibit 2: Energy – U.S. Crude Oil Inventories, 2000 – Current

Source: Bloomberg, U.S. EIA and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Exhibit 3: Energy – Global Oil Supply And Demand, 2019 – 2023E

Inventory Change (MMBbl/d)

Inventory Change Supply Demand

Source: EIA, Energy Aspects and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Light oil differentials should narrow as incremental supply returns post-turnarounds,

Exhibit 4: Energy – Regional Oil Differentials, January 2022 – December 2022E

WTI-WCS Maya-WCS WTI-Maya SCO - WTI

Source: Bloomberg, DOE, and CIBC World Markets Inc.

2) Increased global competition from OPEC+ barrels returning to the market;

4) Refinery outages (planned and unplanned), which could limit demand.

WTI - WCS Maya - WCS

Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Exhibit 6: Energy – Average Condensate Pricing In Alberta, Q3/22

Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Despite a summer of strong refinery throughput, refined product inventory levels

Refinery Utilization (%)

Source: Bloomberg, EIA, and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Refined product demand could stay strong if we experience a colder-than-normal

Exhibit 8: Energy – Refined Products Supplied And Exports, 2015 – Current

Source: Bloomberg, EIA and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Exhibit 9: Energy – Downstream Crack Spread, 2017 – Present

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Natural Gas Outlook

Per mia n B asi n

Columbia Gas TCO

Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Source: NGX and CIBC World Markets Inc.

10/5/2021 4/5/2022 7/5/2022 10/4/2022 10/5/2021 4/5/2022 7/5/2022 10/4/2022

Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Source: CIBC World Markets Inc.

WCSB Field Receipts (Bcf/d)

Source: EIA, Platts and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Percentage Incrase / (Decrease) in Rigs

Source: EIA DPR and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Canada Natural Gas Days of Storage

Source: EIA, Platts and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Exhibit 17: Energy – Canada Natural Gas Storage, 2017-2022E

U.S. Natural Gas Storage Europe Natural Gas Storage

5 Yr Ra nge 5 Year Avg. 202 1

Source: EIA, Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

U.S. LNG buildout is continuing to demonstrate robust demand growth expected by

LNG Export Capacity and Export (BCF/d)

Source: EIA, company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Exhibit 19: Energy – Europe Natural Gas Supply Mix, 2021-2023E

Days of Supply With Storage

5 Yr Ra nge 5 Year Avg. 202 1

202 0 202 2 2022-2023 Days of Storage Supply

Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Exhibit 21: Energy – Natural Gas Futures, 2021 - 2025E

10/5/2021 4/5/2022 7/5/2022 10/4/2022 10/5/2021 4/5/2022 7/5/2022 10/4/2022

Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Drilling Activity Outlook

Exhibit 22: Energy – Rig Count Actuals And Forecasts (2015-2024E)

Actu al New Prio r