CIBC Preview

EQUITY RESEARCH Dennis Fong, P.Eng.
Jamie Kubik, CPA, CA
October 14, 2021 Rating Change - Downgrade

Camille Gordon Chris Thompson, P.Geo.
Oil & Gas Q3/21 Preview

Expecting Industry To Post A Strong Q3, And Stronger Q4 Cheryl Wu, CFA Chris Lee
Our Conclusion
We have revised our estimates and price expectations ahead of Q3
reporting, which starts next week with Precision Drilling on October 21. The Sector:
third quarter showed significant strength in both oil and natural gas pricing as Energy
a combination of faster-than-expected demand recovery and capital
discipline from producers has created a situation where the globe could be Key Changes
undersupplied for energy through the winter months. With the stronger oil
price, our focus turns towards capital allocation plans, 2022 guidance and Price Target Changes
the acceleration of cash returns for shareholders. On the back of our view up to
Advantage Energy Ltd 
that the world could be relatively undersupplied through Q4/21 and into up to
ARC Resources Ltd. 
2022, we have revised our commodity price expectations upwards, driving up to
Baytex Energy Corp. 
our estimates and price target revisions. Our top ideas for Q3 remain biased up to
Birchcliff Energy Ltd. 
to catalysts driving accelerated returns, and include CVE, IMO and SU. up to
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. 
up to
Cenovus Energy Inc. 
Key Points
up to
Crescent Point Energy Corp. 
Capital allocation increasingly accrues to shareholders: As companies up to
Enerflex Ltd. 
achieve debt targets through 2021, we expect further defined capital up to
Enerplus Corporation 
allocation plans which focus on a combination of dividend increases, special up to
Ensign Energy Services Inc. 
dividends and share repurchase programs. Based on our revised commodity up to
Freehold Royalties Ltd. 
price deck, the SMID-cap and large-cap 2022E D/CF multiples are at or up to
Imperial Oil Limited 
below 2.3x and free cash flow yields are 21%, on average. up to
Kelt Exploration Ltd. 
up to
MEG Energy Corp. 
Gas prices at multi-year highs; much is dependent on weather in the up to
NuVista Energy Ltd. 
near term: With LNG-related demand poised for growth and supply levels up to
Ovintiv Inc. 
still subdued, we believe that North American natural gas prices are likely to up to
Paramount Resources Ltd. 
remain quite strong through a normal winter scenario. A colder-than-normal up to
Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. 
scenario is likely to drive prices to multi-year highs, and a warmer-than- up to
PrairieSky Royalty Ltd. 
normal winter is likely to drive some softness in pricing from current levels. up to
Precision Drilling Corporation 
Inflation is likely to impact capital efficiencies in 2022: We expect up to

SECURE Energy Services Inc. 
inflationary pressures to be within reason, but think a 10% increase in pricing up to

Storm Resources Ltd. 
is likely, and should continue to improve margins for energy service up to

Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. 
companies. up to
Topaz Energy Corporation 
up to
Tourmaline Oil Corp. 
2022 budget season unlikely to be too surprising: In our conversations up to
Vermilion Energy Inc. 
with corporates over the last three months, we were not surprised to see up to
Whitecap Resources Inc. 
slight nudges in capital spending due to inflation and the return of some
discretionary spending, but a return to growth seems off the table. Capital Rating Changes
discipline and increasing shareholder returns remain the dominant focus of Storm Resources Ltd.  dow
operators, and we expect to see that reflected in 2022 budgets.
We are downgrading Storm Resources to Neutral from Outperformer:
After strong performance in the stock we view Storm as near fully valued on
current strip. Our price target implies a 3.3x 2022E EV/DACF multiple (peers
3.5x).
All figures in Canadian dollars otherwise stated.

Please see "Price Target Calculation and Key Risks to Price Target" information on pages 27 - 31.
For required regulatory disclosures please refer to "Important Disclosures" beginning on page 34.
Oil & Gas Q3/21 Preview - October 14, 2021
Crude Oil – Market Update

OPEC+ holds the line and follows plan to return production: The 21st OPEC+ ministerial
meeting reconfirmed the group’s decision to upwardly adjust overall production by
0.4 MMBbl/d per month for November 2021. Despite the relative strength in crude, the group
approved an adjustment which was in line with previously announced levels. Further, the
speed at which the announcement was made suggests a quick approval (and consensus
amongst the member countries). The total OPEC+ production quota of 39.7 MMBbl/d in
November 2021 is expected to rise to 45.5 MMBbl/d effective May 2022. There is another
meeting on November 4 that investors should be wary of, especially if the oil price improves
further and possibly prompts OPEC+ to change its curtailment rollback plans. The bar chart in
Exhibit 1 outlines the projected (and announced) outlook for production curtailment rollback
for OPEC+.
Exhibit 1: Energy – OPEC+ Production Cuts, 2019 - 2021E
10
Production Cuts (MMBbl/d)
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Nov-19
Nov-20
Nov-21
Sep-19
Sep-20
Sep-21
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-21
May-19
Jul-19
May-20
Jul-20
May-21
Jul-21
Agreed Cuts Outlook (Announced Target) Saudi Voluntary Cuts
Source: Bloomberg, Reuters, OPEC, U.S. EIA and CIBC World Markets Inc.
Global markets could become undersupplied in a cold winter: The EIA estimates that
year-end demand could be ~101.1 MMBbl/d vs. supply at 99.9 MMBbl/d (inclusive of the
current OPEC+ plan to restore production levels), suggesting further drawdown from global
inventories. Current OECD inventories stand at 2,142 MMBbl, which is 115 MMBbl below the
five-year historical average. The major factors that we could see driving the oil price higher
are: cooler-than-expected temperatures, promoting gas-to-oil switching; further capital
discipline from producers; and a faster-than-expected economic recovery post-pandemic.
The bar/line chart in Exhibit 2 shows a sensitivity to expected supply and demand projections
into next year.
2
Exhibit 2: Energy – Global Oil Balances, 2019 - April 2022
105 25
100 20
Inventory Change (MMBbl/d)

Supply/Demand (MMBbl/d)
95 15
90 10
85 5
80 -
75 (5)
May-19
May-20
May-21
Nov-19
Nov-20
Nov-21
Sep-19
Sep-20
Sep-21
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-21
Mar-22
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Inventory Change Supply Demand
Source: EIA, IEA, Energy Aspects and CIBC World Markets Inc.
Egress is less of a concern with the completion of Line 3 Replacement: The completion
of construction on the Line 3 Replacement has increased egress out of Western Canada to
~0.37 MMBbl/d. Given the timing of the production ramp-up at Fort Hills was delayed until the
end of this year, we view the basin as being temporarily long pipeline egress. This transitions
towards a more balanced situation in Q2 next year. On the back of these expectations, we
have maintained a 2022 WCS-WTI basis of ~US$13/Bbl. Anecdotally, we have heard
apportionment has dropped significantly from ~40%-50% in September to sub-30% levels
with the completion of the Line 3 Replacement. The line chart in Exhibit 3 highlights our view
of WCSB production, the current and future expected egress capacity, and recently provided
CER (Canadian Energy Regulator) estimates.
3
Exhibit 3: Energy – WCSB Crude Oil Takeaway Capacity, 2019 - 2025E
6.5
6.0
5.5
Egress/Refining (MMBbl/d)
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
Q1/19
Q2/19
Q3/19
Q4/19
Q1/20
Q2/20
Q3/20
Q4/20
Q1/21
Q2/21
Q3/21
Q4/21
Q1/22
Q2/22
Q3/22
Q4/22
FY/23
FY/24
FY/25
TMX Line 3 Replacement
Existing Pipeline Optimizations Refining
Existing Pipeline WCSB Crude Supply (CIBC)
WCSB Crude Supply (CER)
*Optimizations Include: ENB Mainline, ENB Express, TC Keystone, PMC Rangeland
Source: AER, CAPP, CER, Crude Monitor, company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.
Refining margins could be higher vs. H1/21, especially in the U.S.: Notwithstanding the
impact of elevated renewable identification number (RIN) pricing within the U.S., which acted
as a headwind to refiner margins in H1/21, we view there to be a net tailwind for downstream
assets in the U.S. We continue to view Canadian refining margins in a positive light, but
expect the improvements in USGC, Midcon and East Coast crack spreads could drive a
strong tailwind to companies like CVE and a more moderate positive impact for SU and IMO
(given exposure to Eastern Canadian refineries). While our expectations for U.S. crack
spreads remain relatively unchanged, we highlight the improvement in pricing of ~21% from
Q1/21 to Q4/21 on strip pricing. From a RINs perspective, we have seen pricing for D4-D6
drop by ~21% from Q2/21 to Q3/21, which should provide a tailwind for CVE, but we expect it
to have a greater Q4/21 impact (vs. Q3).
Exhibit 4: Energy – USGC Crack Spread, 2016 - Present
30
25
20
C$/Bbl
15
10
5
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Jun
Jul
Apr
Aug
Sep
Mar
May
Feb
5-Yr Range (2016-2020) 5-Yr Avg (2016-2020) 2021 2020
Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.
4
Refined product inventories and demand almost at pre-pandemic levels: Through 2021,
we have seen a strong rebound in refined product demand, shown through improvements in
North American and global inventories. Demand for gasoline has reached ~90% of
pre-pandemic levels; diesel demand is already at pre-pandemic levels; jet fuel consumption
levels are still at ~50%-60% of pre-pandemic demand. We anticipate that global oil demand
will reach pre-pandemic levels in 2022.
Exhibit 5: Gasoline And Jet Fuel – U.S. Inventories And Demand, 2016 - Present
Gasoline Inventories Jet Fuel Inventories
270 50
260 48
Inventories (MMBbl)
46
Inventories (MMBbl)
250
44
240
42
230
40
220
38
210 36
200 34
Jan
Jun
May
Aug
Sep
Mar
Apr
Jul
Feb
Nov
Dec
Oct
Jan
Jun
May
Aug
Sep
Mar
Apr
Jul
Feb
Nov
Dec
Oct
5-Yr Range (2016-2020) 5-Yr Avg (2016-2020) 2020 2021 5-Yr Range (2016-2020) 5-Yr Avg (2016-2020) 2020 2021
Gasoline Demand Jet Fuel Demand

10.5 2.2
10.0 2.0
9.5
Implied Demand (MMBbl/d)
Implied Demand (MMBbl/d)
1.8
9.0
8.5 1.6
8.0 1.4
7.5 1.2
7.0
1.0
6.5
6.0 0.8
5.5 0.6
5.0 0.4
4.5
0.2
Jan
Jun
May
Aug
Sep
Mar
Apr
Jul
Feb
Nov
Dec
Oct
Jan
Jun
May
Aug
Sep
Mar
Apr
Jul
Feb
Nov
Dec
5-Yr Range (2016-2020) 5-Yr Avg (2016-2020) 2020 2021 5-Yr Range (2016-2020) 5-Yr Avg (2016-2020) Oct 2020 2021
Hurricane season and downtime impact from Hurricane Ida: On August 29, Hurricane Ida
hit landfall near Port Fourchon, Louisiana, as a Category 4 hurricane. During the storm, at
least nine refineries were impacted, causing outages or reduced throughput. Further, exports
and imports were adversely affected. We highlight that the PADD III refinery utilization in
Q3/21 remained within the five-year range and averaged ~73%. This downtime drove the
inventory drawdown between August 27 and September 3 of ~1.5 MMBbl/d, with gasoline,
diesel, and jet fuel following a similar trend.
5
Exhibit 6: Energy – Refinery Utilization, 2016 - Present
PADD II Refinery Utilization PADD III Refinery Utilization

100 100
90 90
Refinery Utilization (%)
Refinery Utilization (%)

80 80
70 70
60 60
50 50
40 40
Oct
Nov
Dec
Oct
Dec
Jan
Jun
Jul
Jan
Jun
Jul
Apr
Aug
Sep
Sep
Mar
May
Mar
May
Feb
Feb
5-Yr Range (2016-2020) 2016-2020 Avg 2020 2021 5-Yr Range (2016-2020) 2016-2020 Avg 2020 2021
Natural Gas – Choose Your Own Adventure

Expect volatility to continue in the coming months, but even in a normal winter
scenario, pricing is likely to remain strong Y/Y: Similar to other years, much depends on
weather at this juncture. We believe that, even in the event of a normal winter, price levels
should be supportive for the industry. In the event of a colder-than-expected winter, however,
low storage levels around the globe will likely lead to outsized price action for natural gas,
potentially reaching multi-decade or all-time highs. In the event of a warmer winter, we expect
the strip price likely deflates from current levels. However, the U.S. is still expected to be
placing incremental LNG export capacity on line in the coming months (~2 Bcf/d) that will
soften the demand loss, which we believe should protect the downside on pricing. The cost of
capital has clearly risen for this sector, however, making hurdle rates higher than they were
five years ago. Pricing in the US$3.00/Mcf-US$3.50/Mcf range appears to be sufficient for
most natural gas-focused businesses to generate adequate levels of free cash flow, and, as
such, we are hesitant to move our longer-term price expectations outside of this level. We are
slightly lower than strip pricing for 2022 at this point, but concede prices are going to be
volatile as the market tries to digest winter forecasts in the coming weeks.
Balances in a vulnerable position heading into winter, and we are doubtful any
meaningful production growth will materialize in the coming six months to
counterbalance outsized weather events: It seems likely that production growth should
begin to materialize at current prices, but we also believe this is more of a H2/22 and 2023
story than H1/22. In our conversations with most Canadian producers, a return to growth
beyond the 5% level does not appear likely, even at current pricing, although many will try to
maximize volumes in a strong price environment, and we could see incremental capex creep
in 2021. Balance sheet repair or return of capital still takes priority for most versus production
growth. This narrative is also reflected in rig activity across major U.S. basins. Rig counts
remain sluggish despite meaningful drawdowns in drilled but uncompleted wells, which
suggests U.S. operators are continuing with a demonstration of capital discipline (for the time
being). With production levels expected to remain largely static in the near term, balances are
headed into winter in a vulnerable position, sitting below the five-year average in the U.S.,
and deeply below the five-year range in Europe, providing less cushion than in prior years,
particularly with increased demand levels.
6
U.S. natural gas storage continues to rebuild, but likely to begin withdrawal season
below the five-year average: The line charts in Exhibit 7 demonstrate that the days of
storage supply have been trending lower over much of the last decade, providing less room
to respond to outsized demand events. In the event of a cold winter, combined with the
increased demand through LNG offtake that is already expected, we could see price levels
push well into double digits. Given most global LNG prices are sitting at >US$25/Mcf on the
forward curve, in order to induce natural gas to stay on the continent, it will require Henry Hub
prices to push to a level that would promote turning volumes away from LNG, which is likely
>US$15/Mcf.
Exhibit 7: Energy – U.S. Natural Gas Storage, 2016 - 2021

U.S. Natural Gas Storage U.S. Natural Gas Days Of Storage Supply
4,500
70
4,000
60
3,500
50
3,000
Storage (Bcf)
40
2,500
30
2,000
5 Yr Range
1,500 5 Yr Avg. 20
2020
1,000 10
2021
500
0
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21
Source: EIA and CIBC World Markets Inc.
U.S. production levels have remained surprisingly sluggish despite strong pricing, and
increases in U.S. demand have been primarily export driven: The growth in LNG exports
has added a steady source of demand throughout 2021. We expect LNG projects to run at
full capacity given the strong LNG pricing in Asian and European markets. Conversely,
production levels have remained eerily flat throughout 2021, with outages due to freeze-offs
in February and hurricanes in August/September. With rig counts remaining subdued and
operator budgets focused on free cash flow, we are doubtful that production growth of any
material nature will arrive in the near term, but expect this becomes more of a H2/22 and
2023 scenario.
Exhibit 8: Energy – U.S. Dry Gas Production And LNG Exports, 2016 - 2021
US Dry Gas Production LNG Export Feedgas
100 14.0
95
12.0
90
LNG Export Feedgas (Bcf/d)
10.0
US Production (Bcf/d)
85
8.0
80
6.0
75
5 Yr Range 4.0 5 Yr Range
70
5 Yr Avg. 5 Yr Avg.
65 2020 2.0 2020
2021 2021
60 0.0
Source: S&P Global Platts.
7
European natural gas prices are heavily influencing North American pricing and
inventories in Europe are poised to begin withdrawal season well below seasonal
ranges: European gas prices have remained robust in recent trading and the forward curves
demonstrate a system that is likely to be short volumes come withdrawal season. Most recent
data highlight storage is ~ 27% below 2020 levels and 18% below the five-year average,
pushing U.K. NBP and Netherland TTF prices well beyond US$25/Mcf. Storage levels have
continued to rebuild but all headlines point to Europe being under-supplied as we head into
withdrawal season. Even with the completion of Gazprom’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline in
September, it may take a number of months before it becomes fully operational.
Exhibit 9: Energy – Europe Natural Gas Storage, 2016 - 2021

Europe Natural Gas Storage Europe Storage - WoW Change In Inventories
4,000 200
150
3,500
100
3,000 50
Storage Change (Bcf)

2,500 0
Storage (Bcf)
-50
2,000
-100
1,500 -150
5 Yr Range
5 Yr Range -200
1,000 5 Yr Avg.
5 Yr Avg.
-250 2020
2020
500 -300 2021
2021
0 -350
Source: Bloomberg, GIE and CIBC World Markets Inc.
Western Canadian supply surprised to the upside in Q3, and could do so in Q4, but we
Storage levels in Canada expect AECO basis to tighten from here: We view the current basis on AECO as being too
have normalized towards wide in the winter months and sit tighter than strip forwards. With pipeline maintenance
the five-year average, which ending by December, we believe the basis will tighten with the onset of winter temperatures,
should provide support and demand pull into U.S. Midwest markets. Western Canada field receipts were very strong
through the winter months in
through the summer and hot weather and pipeline expansions helped drive increased
the event of elevated
demand to maintain balances. September featured wider differentials, largely driven by
demand.
strong field receipts colliding with pipeline outages. This has been short-lived as October
pricing has improved and forward differentials through winter 2021/2022 have further
tightened.
Exhibit 10: Energy – Western Canadian Natural Gas Production And Demand, 2016 - 2021
Canadian Production (WCSB Field Receipts) Western Canadian Demand
17.0 11
16.0 10
WCSB Field Receipts (Bcf/d)
15.0 9
WCSB Deliveries (Bcf/d)
8
14.0
7
13.0
6
12.0 5 Yr Range 5 Yr Range
5
5 Yr Avg. 5 Yr Avg.
11.0 2020 2020
4
2021 2021
10.0 3
Source: TC Energy, Enbridge, TransCo and CIBC World Markets Inc.
8
Commodity Price Forecasts – CIBC Base Deck

The table in Exhibit 11 provides our quarterly price deck, which we continue to adopt for all
company base outlooks. Our key benchmark price assumptions for 2021 include the
following:
 WTI: US$67.91/Bbl (US$64.76/Bbl prior)

 MSW: C$80.48/Bbl (C$76.84/Bbl prior)
 WCS: C$69.33/Bbl (C$62.06/Bbl prior)
 NYMEX: US$4.05/Mcf (US$3.58/Mcf prior)
 AECO: C$3.69/Mcf (C$3.49/Mcf prior)
Exhibit 11: Energy – CIBC Base Deck, 2021E - 2023E

2021E 2022E 2023E
CIBC Base Price Deck Q1A Q2A Q3E Q4E Full Year Q1E Q2E Q3E Q4E Full Year Full Year
Crude Oil
Brent (US$/Bbl) $60.00 $68.64 $73.00 $81.00 $70.66 $78.00 $76.00 $72.50 $72.50 $74.74 $72.50
Brent - WTI Differential (US$/Bb l) $2.08 $2.51 $2.41 $4.00 $2.76 $4.00 $3.00 $2.50 $2.50 $2.99 $2.50
WTI Oil (US$/Bbl) $57.91 $66.12 $70.59 $77.00 $67.91 $74.00 $73.00 $70.00 $70.00 $71.75 $70.00
WTI - MSW Differential (US$/Bb l) ($3.57) ($4.03) ($3.73) ($3.73) ($3.76) ($3.00) ($3.00) ($3.00) ($3.00) ($3.00) ($3.50)
MSW (C$/Bbl) $68.79 $76.25 $84.22 $92.75 $80.48 $91.03 $89.74 $87.01 $87.01 $88.71 $87.50
WTI - WCS Differential (US$/Bb l) ($11.84) ($12.85) ($12.88) ($13.00) ($12.64) ($13.00) ($13.00) ($13.00) ($13.00) ($13.00) ($13.00)
Western Canada Select (C$/Bbl) $58.32 $65.41 $72.69 $81.01 $69.33 $78.21 $76.92 $74.03 $74.03 $75.81 $75.00
Natural Gas
NYMEX (US$/Mcf) $3.52 $3.01 $4.47 $5.19 $4.05 $5.19 $3.89 $3.37 $4.18 $4.15 $3.65
NYMEX - AECO Differential (US$/Mcf) ($1.17) ($0.64) ($1.63) ($1.00) ($1.11) ($0.75) ($1.00) ($1.00) ($1.00) ($0.94) ($0.99)
AECO 30+ Day Spot (C$/Mcf) $2.97 $2.91 $3.58 $5.30 $3.69 $5.69 $3.70 $3.08 $4.13 $4.15 $3.50
NYMEX - Dawn Differential (US$/Mcf) ($0.48) ($0.10) ($0.22) $0.25 ($0.14) $0.25 ($0.18) ($0.22) ($0.17) ($0.08) ($0.08)
NYMEX - Station 2 Gas Differential (US$/Mcf) ($1.20) ($0.33) ($0.25) ($0.72) ($0.72) ($0.75) ($0.82) ($0.89) ($0.84) ($0.84) ($1.00)
NYMEX - Chicago Differential (US$/Mcf) $1.59 ($0.10) ($0.23) $0.15 $0.35 $0.15 ($0.15) ($0.15) ($0.15) ($0.08) ($0.08)
NBP ICE (GBp/Therm) $50.16 $64.20 $119.61 $68.37 $75.76 $70.24 $50.55 $45.12 $59.20 $56.22 $51.73
TTF (Eur/MWh) $18.53 $25.01 $48.25 $31.99 $31.03 $32.05 $21.44 $20.81 $22.25 $24.10 $19.37
NGL Pricing
Propane at Edmonton (US$/Bbl) $24.58 $28.07 $29.97 $30.00 $28.18 $30.00 $30.00 $30.00 $30.00 $30.00 $30.00
Butane at Edmonton (US$/Bbl) $22.32 $24.48 $26.82 $30.00 $25.93 $30.00 $30.00 $30.00 $30.00 $30.00 $30.00
Condensate at Edmonton (US$/Bbl) $59.01 $64.86 $70.84 $79.00 $68.49 $76.00 $71.00 $68.00 $72.00 $71.73 $68.00
Forex
Forex (US$/C$) $0.79 $0.81 $0.79 $0.79 $0.80 $0.78 $0.78 $0.77 $0.77 $0.78 $0.76
Source: Bloomberg, Platts and CIBC World Markets Inc.
9
Commodity Price Forecasts – Current Futures Strip

The table in Exhibit 12 presents a summary of recent strip pricing across key commodity
classes.
 Our WTI oil price forecasts (2021: US$67.91/Bbl, 2022: US$71.75/Bbl) sit 1% and 4%
below the current forward curve in 2021 and 2022, respectively.
 Our MSW oil price forecasts (2021: C$80.48/Bbl, 2022: C$88.71/Bbl) sit 1% below 2021
and in line with 2022 strip prices.
 Our WCS oil price forecasts (2021: C$69.33/Bbl, 2022: C$75.81/Bbl) sit 1% below 2021
and in line with 2022 strip prices.
 For natural gas pricing, our NYMEX price forecasts (2021: US$4.05/Mcf, 2022:
US$4.15/Mcf) sit 5% and 10% below 2021 and 2022 strip prices, respectively.
 Our AECO price forecasts (2021: $3.69/Mcf, 2022: $4.15/Mcf) sit 1% below 2021 and 1%
above the current forward curve in 2021 and 2022, respectively.
Exhibit 12: Energy – Future Strip Pricing, 2021E - 2023E

2021E 2022E 2023E
Futures Strip Price Deck Q1A Q2A Q3E Q4E Full Year Q1E Q2E Q3E Q4E Full Year Full Year
Crude Oil
Brent (US$/Bbl) $60.00 $68.64 $73.00 $82.36 $71.07 $80.97 $78.93 $76.90 $74.95 $77.92 $71.18
Brent - WTI Differential (US$/Bb l) $2.08 $2.52 $2.41 $3.82 $2.71 $3.68 $3.47 $3.41 $3.57 $3.53 $4.30
WTI Oil (US$/Bbl) $57.91 $66.12 $70.59 $78.54 $68.35 $77.30 $75.46 $73.50 $71.38 $74.39 $66.88
WTI - MSW Differential (US$/Bb l) ($3.57) ($4.04) ($3.73) ($3.53) ($3.72) ($3.42) ($3.33) ($4.15) ($4.72) ($3.91) ($5.92)
MSW (C$/Bbl) $68.79 $76.24 $84.22 $94.12 $80.92 $92.73 $90.60 $87.19 $83.91 $88.58 $76.97
WTI - WCS Differential (US$/Bb l) ($11.84) ($12.84) ($12.88) ($12.84) ($12.60) ($13.79) ($13.34) ($13.23) ($13.88) ($13.56) ($13.94)
Western Canada Select (C$/Bbl) $58.32 $65.43 $72.69 $82.46 $69.80 $79.71 $78.03 $75.77 $72.37 $76.45 $66.84
Natural Gas
NYMEX (US$/Mcf) $3.52 $3.02 $4.47 $6.05 $4.27 $6.02 $4.08 $4.09 $4.22 $4.60 $3.61
NYMEX - AECO Differential (US$/Mcf) ($1.17) ($0.63) ($1.63) ($1.81) ($1.31) ($1.78) ($1.08) ($1.24) ($1.01) ($1.28) ($0.88)
AECO 30+ Day Spot (C$/Mcf) $2.97 $2.93 $3.58 $5.32 $3.71 $5.32 $3.77 $3.59 $4.04 $4.17 $3.45
NYMEX - Dawn Differential (US$/Mcf) ($0.48) ($0.10) ($0.22) ($0.12) ($0.23) $0.12 ($0.12) ($0.18) ($0.14) ($0.08) ($0.09)
NYMEX - Station 2 Gas Differential (US$/Mcf) ($1.20) ($0.08) ($0.25) ($1.46) ($0.74) ($1.51) ($1.14) ($1.30) ($1.02) ($1.24) ($0.90)
NYMEX - Chicago Differential (US$/Mcf) $1.59 ($0.11) ($0.23) $0.04 $0.32 $0.54 ($0.15) ($0.18) $0.01 $0.05 $0.03
NBP ICE (GBp/Therm) $50.16 $64.40 $119.61 $247.66 $121.00 $249.99 $105.96 $99.76 $104.55 $139.55 $81.14
TTF (Eur/MWh) $18.53 $25.08 $48.25 $96.81 $47.38 $95.42 $41.31 $38.14 $39.45 $53.38 $30.52
NGL Pricing
Propane at Edmonton (US$/Bbl) $24.58 $28.07 $29.97 $33.34 $29.02 $32.81 $32.04 $31.20 $30.30 $31.58 $28.39
Butane at Edmonton (US$/Bbl) $22.32 $25.12 $26.82 $29.84 $26.05 $29.37 $28.67 $27.92 $27.12 $28.26 $25.41
Condensate at Edmonton (US$/Bbl) $59.01 $64.83 $70.84 $81.85 $69.20 $80.05 $75.71 $71.30 $69.48 $74.10 $64.79
Forex
Forex (US$/C$) $0.79 $0.81 $0.79 $0.80 $0.80 $0.80 $0.80 $0.80 $0.79 $0.80 $0.79
Source: Bloomberg, Platts and CIBC World Markets Inc.
10
North American Rig Counts

Continuing to trend higher as DUCs have been meaningfully drawn: The line chart in
Exhibit 13 illustrates the number of drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells across major U.S.
basins. We expect some level of operational inventories are likely to begin building as rig
activity continues to gradually increase. Extrapolating the drawdown pace that we have seen
in 2021 (which will not occur, but we see as interesting nonetheless), most major basins
would see DUC exhaustion by early 2023, with the exception of natural gas-focused regions.
We see this as being supportive for rig activity to continue to trend higher in 2022.
Exhibit 13: Energy – U.S. DUC Inventories (2013 - 2023E)

Drilled But Uncompleted Wells in Key U.S. Basins
4,000
Extrapolated
3,500 2021 DUC
Drawdown
3,000
Pace
Niobrara
2,500
Anadarko
2,000 Bakken
Eagle Ford
1,500 Haynesville
Appalachia
1,000 Permian
500
Source: EIA and CIBC World Markets Inc.
A continued ascent of drilling activity is likely, but a meaningful supply response

seems further away: The area chart in Exhibit 14 illustrates rig activity across the U.S. by
major producing basin. While we expect rig counts to increase in order to offset natural
declines and replace DUC drawdowns, an orderly increase in rig activity was something we
had been expecting, and we have not meaningfully adjusted our forward rig counts.
Exhibit
U.S. Rig14: Oilfield
Count Services – North American Rig Count By Play, 2016 - Present
by Play
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Oct/16 Apr/17 Oct/17 Apr/18 Oct/18 Apr/19 Oct/19 Apr/20 Oct/20 Apr/21
Permian Others Eagle Ford Anadarko Williston Marcellus Haynesville DJ-Niobrara Utica
Basin
Source: Baker 10/21/2016
Hughes, geoSCOUT 10/27/2017
and CIBC World Markets10/26/2018
Inc. 10/25/2019 10/23/2020 Previous 10/8/2021 w/w (% ) y/y (% )
Permian 212 379 489 417 133 263 266 1% 100%
Others 143 197 207 138 47 84 85 1% 81%
Eagle Ford 33 65 79 63 16 37 38 3% 138%
Anadarko 52 81 84 32 7 24 24 0% 243%
11 Williston 30 49 56 53 12 23 23 0% 92%
Marcellus 34 42 56 42 26 26 27 4% 4%
Rig Count Forecast

Only subtle changes to our prior forecasts: The line charts in Exhibit 15 show our North
American rig count forecast. Our Canadian forecast (top chart) uses a bottom-up approach,
driven by capital budgets across the WCSB, which remain largely unchanged since our last
update. As we look out to 2023, we expect increasing per-rig efficiency and moderating
decline rates will keep the rig count subdued. Our U.S. land rig count (bottom chart) uses
basin-level production estimates and historical rig efficiencies. We expect activity levels will
continue to rise, albeit at a measured pace, with increasing commodity prices into 2023. We
have amended our U.S. rig forecasts slightly higher with the commensurate increase in
commodities prices, but continue to expect a gradual recovery ensues as DUC inventory is
more deeply consumed.
Exhibit 15: Oilfield Services – North American Rig Counts (Actual & Forecast), 2017 - 2023E
Canadian Rig Count (Actual & Forecast)
350
300
Average Rig Count
250
200
150
100
50
0
Q4E
Q1E
Q2E
Q3E
Q4E
Q1E
Q2E
Q3E
Q4E
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E
Rig Count (Actual) CIBC CIBC (Prior)
U.S. L48 Rig Count (Actual & Forecast)
1500
Average Rig Count
1200
900
600
300
0
Q4E
Q1E
Q2E
Q3E
Q4E
Q1E
Q2E
Q3E
Q4E
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E

Rig Count (Actual) CIBC CIBC (Prior)
Source: Energy Aspects, geoSCOUT and CIBC World Markets Inc.
12
Company-specific Catalysts
Advantage Energy: We expect Advantage will discuss its 2022 budget at some point during
Q4/21, potentially with its Q3 results. The company’s subsidiary, Entropy, is engaged in
raising external capital to fund future projects, and we expect the market will be looking for a
financing update prior to the end of 2021, or early 2022.
ARC Resources: We believe ARC will likely post stronger-than-expected Q3/21 production
results, as public data suggest the company produced very strong volumes through July and
August. We expect ARC to announce its 2022 budget with its Q3 results, which could
potentially include a further return-of-capital discussion. While we view ARC as having the
technical confidence in Attachie in order to sanction the project, we think the uncertainty
surrounding regulatory reviews with the province of BC and the Blueberry First Nations could
see the company delay fulsome spending on the project until greater clarity is achieved. We
have moderated our spending expectation lower for 2022 as a result.
Birchcliff Energy: We have moderated our production expectations for Q3/21 and Q4/21
lower as a result of the fire and subsequent outage at the Plains Midstream Fort
Saskatchewan fractionation complex. The company expects liquids yields will be affected
through Q4/21 on the order of 2,000 Bbl/d; however, we do expect an uptick in natural gas
volumes will somewhat act as an offset. With Q3/21 results, BIR is expected to release
preliminary guidance for 2022, in which we expect the company will announce continued
capital discipline and flat production to 2021.
Cenovus Energy: We are primarily focused on the company’s expected announcement that
could outline its framework for returning cash to shareholders after achieving its interim debt
target of $10 billion. We expect the company could allocate up to 25% of free cash flow (after
the dividend) towards a share buyback program and that percentage could increase when
Cenovus hits its debt target of $8 billion. For the downstream assets, we expect an operating
margin of $195 million due in part to better throughput and RINs pricing taking a step-back in
Q3 (vs. H1). Looking into Q4, we expect further improvement in RINs pricing, which could
drive further strength in downstream performance.
Enerflex: We see the current natural gas price environment as beneficial for the bid pipeline
in EFX’s Engineered Systems business and would not be surprised to see a growing level of
bookings. Given its strong balance sheet and low payout ratio, we also wouldn’t be surprised
to see the company visit its dividend policy at some point, potentially with Q3 results.
Freehold Royalties: The company has increased its dividend through four consecutive
quarters. Although we are not modelling another dividend increase, we would not rule out a
small one at this point either.
Imperial Oil: We expect commentary on a capital allocation plan given the free cash flow
generation the company will show in Q3. The company is planning to host an Investor Day in
early November; so, details could be delayed until then.
Integrateds: Despite the strength in oil prices from the start to the end of the quarter, we are
not expecting significant FIFO-LIFO adjustments given the approximate one-month lag in
re-valuing inventory. If oil prices remain strong, they could drive FIFO-LIFO gains for SU and
CVE, and act as a modest headwind for IMO.
Kelt Exploration: We expect to see a 2022 budget from Kelt, and believe the company will
look to spend the bulk of its cash flow, but still target a debt-free balance sheet. We might get
with Q3 results a small update on Kelt’s Oak development, which is a key operational catalyst
for the company given this area is relatively unproven.
13
MEG Energy: We have increased our price target on MEG to $17 (from $14) on the back of
our revised oil price expectations. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock as the
company’s current hedging exposure could drive losses in H2/21. Looking into next year, we
believe MEG will allocate free cash flow to debt repayment; we prefer companies in the near
term with more defined approaches towards allowing free cash to accrue to shareholders if oil
prices climb even higher this winter. In a lower oil price scenario and given the torque MEG
shows to the underlying commodity, we view the shares as having greater risk/return
compared to our Outperformer-rated companies, CNQ, CVE and SU.
NuVista Energy: We expect to see a 2022 budget from NuVista, but believe it is unlikely to
deviate much from the multi-year outlook already announced. We see NuVista as benefitting
from the rapid ascent in pricing and a decreasing hedge position, which will serve to reduce
leverage rapidly in 2022. This should set the business up favorably to spend within cash flow
in order to grow into its facility and transportation commitments while maintaining a strong
balance sheet.
Paramount Resources: We may receive a 2022 budget from Paramount with its Q3 results,
and expect it could target the upper end of the company’s pre-announced spending range
($385MM). We believe there is potential for an increasing return of capital as Paramount
moves through 2022; we expect the company’s quarterly cash flow to accelerate rapidly as its
lower price hedges roll off, which should serve to considerably improve its balance sheet by
Q1/22. We also regard Paramount as being uniquely positioned to counter inflationary
pressures as the company owns its drilling fleet.
Peyto Exploration & Development: Peyto pre-released its production numbers for Q3/21
along with most of its capital spending in the quarter so we don’t expect any surprises. We
expect the company will provide an update with respect to its credit facility negotiations and
its outlook for 2022.
SECURE Energy Services: This quarter will be the first to consolidate Tervita within
SECURE’s results. We expect the quarter will likely feature some transaction-related noise,
but will be looking for progress on SECURE’s cost savings and synergies for the combined
enterprise and we sit in line with consensus on EBITDA for the quarter.
Storm Resources: We expect an update on the four lower Montney wells at Nig and timing
for first production at Fireweed, expected to start in Q4/21. Storm is constructing a field
compression facility at Fireweed and we will be looking for an update on progress at that
project and whether timing has been affected by the Blueberry River First Nations
negotiations.
Suncor Energy: Investors have been focused primarily on operational details, especially on
an update related to the timing of the ramp-up at Fort Hills. Further, given the share price
performance in the third quarter, we believe the company could complete its 5%
Board-approved normal course issuer bid (NCIB) before year-end and could look to increase
the share buyback before the approval’s expiry.
Tamarack Valley Energy: We expect an in-line quarter from Tamarack and that the
business will continue to focus on free cash flow generation with modest growth. We
anticipate the company could look to institute a dividend in 2022. We also expect
management will continue to seek tuck-in acquisitions within its core areas in order to expand
its footprint and inventory position.
14
Our Estimates Vs. Consensus Q3/21E

Relative to Q2/21, our Q3/21 CFPS estimates demonstrate a ~30% increase and our
Q4/21 estimates are ~77% higher than Q2/21: The table in Exhibit 16 outlines where our
Q3/21 estimates sit relative to consensus. On average, our cash flow expectations are within
consensus by ~1%.
We expect consensus estimates will continue to converge over the coming weeks. We
presently sit above consensus cash flow per share on ARX, CVE, OVV, BTE, CPG, VET,
AAV, BIR, KEL, NVA, PEY, POU, FRU, and PSK.
Exhibit 16: Energy – Our Estimates Vs. Consensus Estimates And Reporting Dates, Q3/21E
Q3/21E Capital Expenditures ($MM) Q3/21E Total Production (Mboe/d) Q3/21E CFPS ($/sh) Reporting Date
Company CIBC Consensus % CIBC Consensus % CIBC Consensus %
Large Cap/Oil Sands Producers
ARC Resources $330.0 $303.8 9% 349.8 341.9 2% $0.92 $0.91 1% Nov 4 (After Market)
Canadian Natural $906.0 $856.0 6% 1,232.8 1,262.7 -2% $3.04 $3.05 0% Nov 4 (Before Market)
Cenovus Energy $661.8 $683.0 -3% 780.2 767.5 2% $1.11 $1.07 4% Nov 3 (Before Market)
Imperial Oil $304.1 $353.0 -14% 438.9 436.6 1% $2.24 $2.26 0% Oct 29 (Before Market)
MEG Energy $92.8 $91.5 1% 91.8 92.0 0% $0.73 $0.73 0% Nov 8 (After Market)
Ovintiv US$378.0 US$382.5 -1% 534.7 531.3 1% US$3.33 US$3.18 5% Nov 2 (After Market)
Suncor Energy $1,245.9 $1,131.0 10% 692.2 711.1 -3% $1.77 $1.86 -5% Oct 27 (After Market)
Tourmaline $420.0 $1,235.0 -66% 455.7 455.5 0% $2.24 $2.25 -1% Nov 3 (After Market)
Average -7% 0% 0%
Oil Weighted E&P
Baytex $84.0 $85.2 -1% 79.5 79.2 0% $0.31 $0.31 1% Nov 4 (After Market)
Crescent Point $196.1 $224.5 -13% 133.9 132.2 1% $0.68 $0.67 2% Oct 28 (Before Market)
Enerplus $105.0 $106.4 -1% 122.6 123.7 -1% $0.97 $1.04 -6% Nov 4 (After Market)
Tamarack Valley $70.0 $63.8 10% 39.9 38.7 3% $0.23 $0.25 -7% Oct 27 (After Market)
Vermilion $85.8 $80.7 6% 78.3 83.2 -6% $1.38 $1.36 2% Nov 9 (After Market)
Whitecap $165.1 $160.0 3% 113.4 114.2 -1% $0.44 $0.45 -1% Oct 28 (Before Market)
Average 1% 0% -2%
Gas Weighted E&P
Advantage $35.0 $40.0 -13% 49.5 50.0 -1% $0.33 $0.27 22% Oct 28 (After Market)
Birchcliff $25.3 $28.0 -10% 85.0 85.0 0% $0.60 $0.57 4% Nov 10 (After Market)
Kelt $60.0 $51.0 18% 19.7 21.5 -8% $0.20 $0.20 3% Nov 10 (Before Market)
NuVista $80.0 $81.0 -1% 51.3 51.3 0% $0.36 $0.35 2% Nov 9 (After Market)
Peyto $119.5 $105.3 14% 89.6 90.4 -1% $0.62 $0.60 3% Nov 9 (After Market)
Paramount $70.0 $70.0 0% 82.5 81.1 2% $1.04 $0.96 8% Not Posted
Storm $47.0 $46.5 1% 25.4 26.5 -4% $0.25 $0.26 -4% Nov 10 (After Market)
Average 1% -2% 5%
Royalty Co's
Freehold Royalties $0.1 $127.0 nm 11.1 11.2 -1% $0.36 $0.35 2% Nov 10 (After Market)
PrairieSky $0.0 $0.0 0% 19.3 19.7 -2% $0.30 $0.29 2% Oct 25 (After Market)
Topaz $0.3 $0.3 -2% 15.3 14.9 2% $0.37 $0.38 -1% Nov 4 (After Market)
Average -1% 0% 1%
Source: FactSet, company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.
The table in Exhibit 17 outlines where our estimates sit relative to consensus for service
companies under coverage.
Exhibit 17: Oilfield Services – Our Estimates Vs. Consensus Estimates And Reporting Dates, Q3/21E
Q3/21E EBITDA ($MM) Q3/21E Net Debt ($MM Q3/21E CFPS ($/sh) Reporting Date
Company CIBC Consensus % CIBC Consensus % CIBC Consensus %
Contract Drillers
Ensign $61.7 $55.9 10% 1,356.8 1,377.2 -1% $0.23 $0.22 4% Nov 5 (Before Market)
Precision $60.9 $63.1 -3% 1,012.8 1,102.0 -8% $2.94 $3.48 -16% Oct 21 (Before Market)
Compression
Enerflex $39.9 $40.6 -2% 247.5 282.5 -12% $0.34 $0.35 -3% Nov 4 (After Market)
Waste Management
Secure $96.8 $96.3 1% 1,155.5 1,240.0 -7% $0.31 $0.22 41% Not Posted
Source: FactSet, company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.
15
Estimate Changes
In the table in Exhibit 18 we summarize our estimate changes for 2021E and 2022E, along with our 2023 estimates.
Exhibit 18: Energy (E&P) – Our Estimate Changes, 2021E - 2023E

Production (Mboe/d) Capex ($MM) CFPS - Diluted ($/sh)
2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E
Company Ticker Prior Current %∆ Prior Current %∆ New Prior Current %∆ Prior Current %∆ New Prior Current %∆ Prior Current %∆ New
ARC Resources ARX 299.0 301.1 1% 346.5 345.3 0% 366.7 $979 $979 0% $1,400 $1,200 -14% $1,450 $3.30 $3.63 10% $3.59 $4.18 16% $4.49
Canadian Natural CNQ 1,233.4 1,237.9 0% 1,266.8 1,283.0 1% 1,303.8 $3,469 $3,521 2% $3,717 $3,914 5% $3,762 $10.28 $11.17 9% $12.01 $13.55 13% $15.16
Cenovus Energy CVE 768.8 768.8 0% 765.5 770.4 1% 770.4 $2,548 $2,548 0% $2,866 $2,873 0% $2,374 $3.53 $3.75 6% $4.36 $5.53 27% $8.08
Imperial Oil IMO 444.0 438.3 -1% 452.0 449.2 -1% 462.3 $1,056 $1,018 -4% $1,742 $1,752 1% $1,611 $7.11 $7.41 4% $7.32 $9.10 24% $8.89
MEG Energy MEG 92.0 92.0 0% 91.5 91.5 0% 96.0 $329 $334 2% $360 $360 0% $305 $2.15 $2.57 20% $3.68 $4.04 10% $3.88
Ovintiv OVV 535.5 540.1 1% 528.3 533.3 1% 526.4 US$1,469 US$1,469 0% US$1,504 US$1,504 0% US$1,554 US$13.07 US$13.30 2% US$13.96 US$17.71 27% US$17.72
Suncor Energy SU 755.8 746.7 -1% 809.1 809.1 0% 827.4 $4,197 $4,170 -1% $4,495 $4,969 11% $4,579 $6.82 $7.58 11% $8.22 $9.60 17% $11.00
Tourmaline TOU 443.8 443.8 0% 504.3 504.3 0% 511.6 $1,393 $1,393 0% $1,125 $1,125 0% $1,255 $8.77 $9.65 10% $9.48 $12.26 29% $11.43
Average 0% 0% 0% 0% 9% 20%
Oil-Weighted E&P
Baytex Energy BTE 79.3 79.8 1% 80.8 85.4 6% 91.7 $290 $313 8% $400 $418 4% $443 $1.12 $1.26 13% $1.35 $1.70 26% $1.99
Crescent Point Energy CPG 132.9 133.4 0% 131.0 130.0 -1% 117.1 $648 $648 0% $865 $865 0% $865 $2.45 $2.61 6% $2.99 $3.44 15% $3.14
Enerplus ERF 112.6 112.9 0% 121.3 121.0 0% 126.8 $366 $366 0% $500 $500 0% $500 $3.18 $3.39 7% $4.10 $4.68 14% $5.21
Tamarack Valley Energy TVE 34.2 34.2 0% 41.4 40.9 -1% 43.4 $180 $180 0% $200 $220 10% $200 $0.84 $0.91 7% $1.14 $1.35 18% $1.46
Vermilion Energy VET 83.3 83.3 0% 83.7 84.3 1% 82.8 $341 $347 2% $458 $464 1% $468 $4.93 $4.97 1% $5.85 $6.48 11% $5.76
Whitecap Resources WCP 110.9 110.9 0% 123.4 123.4 0% 134.0 $379 $379 0% $572 $572 0% $612 $1.62 $1.72 6% $2.14 $2.51 18% $2.78
Average 0% 1% 2% 3% 7% 17%
Gas-Weighted E&P
Advantage Oil & Gas AAV 50.7 50.3 -1% 55.1 56.0 2% 61.3 $123 $123 0% $150 $175 17% $190 $1.19 $1.37 16% $1.56 $2.21 41% $2.18
Birchcliff Energy BIR 80.2 79.5 -1% 83.0 79.4 -4% 83.9 $219 $232 6% $201 $245 22% $229 $1.79 $2.03 13% $1.95 $2.51 29% $2.37
Kelt Exploration KEL 21.6 21.1 -2% 30.2 30.2 0% 34.9 $175 $175 0% $200 $200 0% $210 $0.82 $0.90 9% $1.31 $1.66 26% $1.83
NuVista Energy NVA 51.7 51.7 0% 65.0 65.0 0% 76.9 $245 $245 0% $325 $325 0% $350 $1.20 $1.35 12% $2.11 $2.66 26% $3.21
Peyto Exploration PEY 91.2 90.3 -1% 97.4 94.5 -3% 97.7 $351 $351 0% $323 $323 0% $251 $2.65 $2.88 9% $3.34 $4.09 22% $4.48
Paramount Resources POU 80.8 82.0 1% 86.1 86.1 0% 88.2 $273 $273 0% $360 $360 0% $425 $3.24 $3.75 16% $5.71 $7.18 26% $6.73
Storm Resources SRX 27.2 27.2 0% 35.0 35.0 0% 37.1 $115 $115 0% $96 $96 0% $102 $1.06 $1.19 12% $1.55 $1.96 27% $2.16
Average -1% -1% 1% 6% 12% 28%
Royalty Co's
Freehold Royalty FRU 11.7 11.7 0% 13.9 13.9 0% 13.7 $0.1 $0.1 0% $0.2 $0.2 0% $0.2 $1.29 $1.39 8% $1.43 $1.66 17% $1.60
PrairieSky Royalty PSK 19.4 19.4 0% 19.0 19.0 0% 18.0 $0.0 $0.0 0% $0.0 $0.0 0% $0.0 $1.06 $1.06 0% $1.07 $1.07 0% $1.01
Topaz Energy TPZ 14.2 14.2 0% 16.1 16.1 0% 16.6 $1.1 $1.1 0% $2.0 $2.0 0% $2.0 $1.37 $1.45 6% $1.52 $1.77 16% $1.70
Average 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 11%
Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.
16
Oilfield Services Estimate Changes

Our EBITDA estimates for the energy services companies under coverage are largely unchanged from previous levels. We continue to see the current operating
environment as favorable for services companies in general, and believe the group has an opportunity to generate improving margins through 2022, but our
estimates have also not included outsized revenue gains for this group given the capital discipline focus of operators. The table in Exhibit 19 includes our estimate
changes.
Exhibit 19: Oilfield Services – Our Estimate Changes, 2021E - 2023E

EBITDA ($MM) Net Debt ($MM) CFPS - Diluted ($/sh)
2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E
Company Ticker Prior Current %∆ Prior Current %∆ New Prior Current %∆ Prior Current %∆ New Prior Current %∆ Prior Current %∆ New
Contract Drillers
Ensign ESI $219 $223 2% $301 $299 -1% $316 $1,335 $1,330 0% $1,199 $1,189 -1% $1,017 $0.71 $0.73 4% $1.24 $1.23 -1% $1.38
Precision Drilling PD $247 $245 -1% $307 $315 3% $344 $995 $997 0% $873 $855 -2% $670 $10.51 $10.35 -2% $16.27 $16.86 4% $19.05
Compression
Enerflex EFX $152 $156 3% $193 $206 7% $238 $319 $339 6% $327 $347 6% $315 $1.29 $1.33 3% $1.85 $1.96 6% $2.16
Waste Management
Secure Energy SES $246 $259 6% $429 $448 4% $495 $1,102 $1,096 -1% $866 $846 -2% $546 $0.81 $0.83 3% $1.17 $1.20 3% $1.34
Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.
17
Ratings And Price Targets

The table in Exhibit 20 summarizes our price targets and ratings across our coverage
universe. Our price target increases are universally higher with this update, which coincides
with an increased underlying price forecast since our last update.
For Storm Resources, we are moving to a Neutral rating from Outperformer as our 17%
return expectation is lower than many of its peers. We continue to see attractive asset
potential in the business but expect it will be difficult for the stock to trade at or above our
target average for the peer group of 3.5x. Our price target implies a 2022E EV/DACF multiple
of 3.3x.
Exhibit 20: Energy And Energy Services – Ratings And Price Targets, As Of October 13, 2021
Rating Price Target Upside Downside
Company Ticker Prior Current Change Prior Current Change Prior Current Change Prior Current Change
Advantage Oil & Gas AAV OP OP = $7.00 $9.00 ↑ $12.00 $15.00 ↑ $2.00 $3.00 ↑
ARC Resources ARX OP OP = $14.00 $16.00 ↑ $20.50 $23.00 ↑ $5.00 $5.00 =
Baytex Energy BTE NT NT = $3.00 $4.25 ↑ $5.25 $7.00 ↑ $0.50 $2.25 ↑
Birchcliff Energy BIR OP OP = $6.50 $9.00 ↑ $9.25 $11.00 ↑ $1.15 $3.50 ↑
Canadian Natural Resources CNQ OP OP = $58.00 $62.00 ↑ $75.00 $85.00 ↑ $27.00 $27.00 =
Cenovus Energy CVE OP OP = $20.00 $22.00 ↑ $28.00 $30.00 ↑ $9.00 $9.00 =
Crescent Point Energy CPG OP OP = $9.00 $9.75 ↑ $14.00 $14.00 = $2.50 $3.00 ↑
Enerflex EFX NT NT = $10.00 $12.00 ↑ $14.00 $16.00 ↑ $5.00 $5.00 =
Enerplus ERF OP OP = $13.00 $16.00 ↑ $17.00 $20.00 ↑ $4.00 $4.00 =
Ensign ESI NT NT = $2.50 $2.75 ↑ $4.50 $5.00 ↑ $0.50 $0.50 =
Freehold Royalties FRU OP OP = $14.00 $16.00 ↑ $17.00 $18.00 ↑ $5.00 $5.00 =
Imperial Oil IMO NT NT = $48.00 $50.00 ↑ $59.00 $65.00 ↑ $30.00 $24.00 ↓
Kelt Exploration KEL OP OP = $5.50 $6.50 ↑ $7.00 $11.50 ↑ $1.25 $2.50 ↑
MEG Energy MEG NT NT = $14.00 $17.00 ↑ $19.00 $24.00 ↑ $5.00 $6.00 ↑
NuVista Energy NVA NT NT = $5.00 $7.50 ↑ $9.50 $12.00 ↑ $1.00 $2.50 ↑
Ovintiv (US$) OVV NT NT = US$40.00 US$50.00 ↑ US$60.00 US$65.00 ↑ US$10.00 US$14.00 ↑
Paramount Resources POU NT NT = $20.00 $27.00 ↑ $37.50 $45.00 ↑ $7.50 $10.00 ↑
Peyto Exploration PEY NT NT = $8.00 $11.00 ↑ $14.00 $17.00 ↑ $3.00 $4.00 ↑
PrairieSky Royalty PSK NT NT = $17.00 $18.00 ↑ $18.00 $19.00 ↑ $8.50 $10.00 ↑
Precision Drilling PD NT NT = $60.00 $65.00 ↑ $90.00 $100.00 ↑ $15.00 $25.00 ↑
Secure Energy SES OP OP = $6.50 $7.00 ↑ $9.50 $10.00 ↑ $2.50 $2.50 =
Storm Resources SRX OP NT ↓ $6.30 $7.00 ↑ $8.00 $8.50 ↑ $3.00 $3.00 =
Suncor Energy SU OP OP = $44.00 $44.00 = $58.00 $63.00 ↑ $19.00 $18.00 ↓
Tamarack Valley Energy TVE OP OP = $4.00 $5.00 ↑ $5.00 $6.75 ↑ $0.50 $1.00 ↑
Topaz Energy TPZ OP OP = $21.00 $22.00 ↑ $24.00 $26.00 ↑ $10.00 $10.00 =
Tourmaline TOU OP OP = $55.00 $60.00 ↑ $65.00 $70.00 ↑ $20.00 $20.00 =
Vermilion Energy VET NT NT = $12.50 $15.00 ↑ $24.00 $20.00 ↓ $2.00 $2.50 ↑
Whitecap Resources WCP OP OP = $9.25 $10.50 ↑ $12.25 $15.00 ↑ $2.75 $4.00 ↑
Source: FactSet and CIBC World Markets Inc.
18
Valuation View
Funds flow has gravitated downcap as energy continues to outperform, but the bulk of our price targets remain near the low end of historical trading
ranges: The box and whisker charts in Exhibit 21 show the current valuation on strip (black dashes) and our implied price targets (blue circles) against the
historical range for each company. In calculating our statistics, we have removed data from January 2020 to June 2020 for the market reacting well ahead of Street
estimates and driving an upward bias in forward multiples. The royalty peers are trading closer to their historical means, but most E&Ps sit near the bottom end or
below the first quartile of the historical valuation range, which demonstrates these stocks are all following the commodity higher, as opposed to leading it. This
continues to suggest apprehension over where commodity prices are heading from current levels. We would highlight that the bulk of our price targets reflect
valuations that are within the first quartile or lower, particularly for natural gas-weighted stocks. We are near the top end of historical trading ranges for
royalty-based businesses, which are likely to see incremental drilling activity on their acreage as a result of the improvement in commodity pricing.
Exhibit 21: Energy – Historical Valuation And Forward Estimates, 2022E

Royalty Peers Oil Peers Gas Peers Large Cap/Oil Sands
20x Data 10x 10x 15x
Max
3rd
Median Quartile
16x 1st 8x 8x 12x
Quartile
Data
Min
12x 6x 6x 9x
EV/DACF (x)
8x 4x 4x 6x
4x 2x 2x 3x
0x 0x 0x 0x
WCP
CPG
ERF
VET
BIR
POU
BTE
TVE
NVA
SRX
AAV
KEL
PEY
SU
IMO
MEG
CNQ
OVV
ARX
CVE
TOU
FRU
PSK
TPZ
MEG
Liquids (US/Bbl) Natural Gas ($/Mcf)
2021 WTI $68.35; WCS Diff: -$12.60; Ed Par Diff: -$3.72; Ed C5 Diff: $0.85 NYMEX US$3.71; AECO C$4.12 Strip Target
2022 WTI $74.39; WCS Diff: -$13.56; Ed Par Diff: -$3.91; Ed C5 Diff: -$0.29 NYMEX US$4.43; AECO C$4.17
Note: Historical NTM EV/DACF since Oct 9, 2019 excluding Jan 2020 - Jun 2020. TPZ since Nov 2, 2020. Priced as of Oct 12, 2021
19
Energy Comparables
The following tables in Exhibits 22 through 26 include our valuation and operating comparables across our coverage universe on strip pricing and on our price
forecast deck.
Exhibit 22: Energy – Valuation Metrics (Strip Deck), 2021E - 2023E

Price Yield Total Rtn Mkt Cap Net Debt EV P/CF D/CF EV/DACF Target EV/DACF EV/Boe/d ($K/Boe/d)
Company Ticker Analyst Rating 8-Oct-21 Target % % (MM) (MM) (MM) 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E
ARC ARX JK OP $12.43 $16.00 1.8% 30.5% $8,999 $478 $9,477 3.8x 2.9x 3.0x 0.9x 0.2x -0.3x 4.5x 3.0x 2.7x 5.6x 3.8x 3.5x $37.1 $27.9 $22.6
Canadian Natural CNQ DF OP $49.62 $62.00 3.8% 28.7% $58,829 $19,875 $78,834 4.5x 4.0x 3.9x 1.2x 0.8x 0.5x 5.4x 4.4x 4.1x 6.5x 5.3x 5.0x $59.9 $50.8 $43.7
Cenovus Energy CVE DF OP $14.06 $22.00 0.5% 57.0% $28,368 $15,116 $44,930 3.8x 2.7x 2.3x 1.6x 0.8x 0.5x 5.0x 3.2x 2.4x 6.9x 4.5x 3.4x $53.6 $42.1 $28.5
Imperial Oil IMO DF NT $42.56 $50.00 2.5% 20.0% $29,987 $4,825 $34,812 5.8x 4.7x 5.4x 0.5x 0.1x -0.1x 6.1x 4.7x 5.1x 7.1x 5.5x 6.0x $73.8 $63.2 $54.8
MEG Energy MEG DF NT $10.35 $17.00 0.0% 64.3% $3,174 $3,061 $6,264 4.7x 2.8x 2.9x 5.5x 2.7x 2.1x 7.4x 4.5x 4.1x 9.6x 5.9x 5.6x $75.8 $69.2 $57.7
Ovintiv OVV DF NT US$38.41 US$50.00 1.5% 32.9% US$10,028 US$6,149 US$16,084 3.0x 2.2x 2.4x 1.6x 0.9x 0.8x 4.1x 2.9x 3.0x 4.9x 3.5x 3.7x $27.9 $24.5 $22.3
Suncor Energy SU DF OP $28.81 $44.00 2.9% 55.6% $42,769 $18,681 $61,682 3.8x 3.2x 3.2x 1.5x 1.2x 1.2x 4.9x 4.0x 4.1x 6.7x 5.6x 5.7x $77.0 $63.8 $56.4
Tourmaline TOU JK OP $44.73 $60.00 1.6% 35.7% $14,588 ($2,053) $12,535 4.7x 3.6x 4.3x 0.2x -0.5x -1.2x 4.9x 3.1x 3.1x 6.5x 4.3x 4.6x $34.3 $24.7 $20.7
Average 1.8% 42.0% 4.3x 3.3x 3.5x 1.7x 0.8x 0.6x 5.4x 3.8x 3.7x 6.9x 4.9x 4.9x $57.5 $48.3 $40.6
Oil-Weighted E&P
Baytex BTE DF NT $3.76 $4.25 0.0% 13.0% $2,121 $913 $3,034 3.0x 2.2x 2.2x 2.0x 1.0x 0.4x 4.3x 2.9x 2.4x 4.7x 3.2x 2.7x $44.5 $35.5 $27.6
Crescent Point CPG DF OP $6.41 $9.75 0.2% 52.3% $3,729 $1,408 $5,137 2.5x 1.9x 2.3x 1.6x 0.7x 0.5x 3.9x 2.5x 2.7x 5.1x 3.5x 3.9x $46.3 $39.9 $38.7
Enerplus ERF JK OP $11.15 $16.00 1.3% 44.8% $2,863 $64 $2,927 3.2x 2.3x 2.4x 0.9x 0.1x -0.5x 3.9x 2.3x 1.9x 5.3x 3.3x 3.0x $32.3 $24.8 $18.5
Tamarack Valley TVE JK OP $3.56 $5.00 0.0% 40.4% $1,446 $98 $1,544 4.4x 2.6x 2.9x 0.5x 0.2x -0.4x 5.4x 2.7x 2.5x 7.1x 3.8x 3.6x $54.9 $38.0 $28.6
Vermilion VET DF NT $13.66 $15.00 0.0% 9.8% $2,213 $786 $2,999 0.2x 0.1x 0.2x 1.8x 0.8x 0.5x 3.9x 2.6x 2.6x 4.1x 2.7x 2.8x $46.1 $39.4 $34.3
Whitecap WCP DF OP $7.53 $10.50 2.4% 41.9% $4,758 $116 $4,874 0.6x 0.4x 0.4x 0.9x 0.1x -0.4x 5.1x 3.0x 2.8x 6.7x 4.2x 4.1x $51.7 $39.3 $30.9
Gas-Weighted E&P
Advantage AAV JK OP $6.40 $9.00 0.0% 40.6% $1,221 ($54) $1,167 4.3x 2.8x 3.1x 0.7x -0.1x -0.6x 4.8x 2.6x 2.4x 6.4x 3.7x 3.7x $28.5 $20.8 $15.8
Birchcliff BIR CT OP $6.70 $9.00 0.4% 34.7% $1,791 ($27) $1,764 3.1x 2.4x 3.2x 0.8x 0.0x -0.6x 3.7x 2.4x 2.6x 4.7x 3.2x 3.7x $28.1 $22.2 $17.3
Kelt KEL JK OP $4.93 $6.50 0.0% 31.8% $930 ($148) $782 5.4x 2.9x 3.1x -0.2x -0.5x -0.8x 5.3x 2.5x 2.3x 7.0x 3.4x 3.3x $42.8 $26.1 $19.9
NuVista NVA JK NT $5.82 $7.50 0.0% 28.9% $1,314 $250 $1,564 4.1x 2.0x 2.0x 1.8x 0.4x -0.1x 5.1x 2.4x 1.9x 6.2x 2.9x 2.5x $36.4 $24.7 $17.0
Peyto PEY CT NT $10.17 $11.00 0.4% 8.6% $1,679 $678 $2,357 3.4x 2.3x 2.3x 2.2x 0.9x 0.3x 4.9x 3.1x 2.7x 5.1x 3.3x 2.8x $30.5 $25.6 $20.1
Paramount POU JK NT $20.17 $27.00 0.6% 34.5% $2,686 ($339) $2,347 5.4x 2.7x 3.4x 0.4x -0.3x -0.8x 5.4x 2.4x 2.6x 7.1x 3.3x 3.8x $35.7 $27.4 $23.4
Storm SRX CT NT $5.99 $7.00 0.0% 16.9% $731 ($57) $674 4.9x 2.9x 3.0x 0.7x -0.2x -0.8x 5.3x 2.8x 2.2x 6.0x 3.3x 2.8x $30.5 $20.1 $14.8
Average 0.2% 28.0% 4.4x 2.6x 2.9x 0.9x 0.0x -0.5x 4.9x 2.6x 2.4x 6.1x 3.3x 3.2x $33.2 $23.8 $18.3
Royalty Co's
Freehold FRU JK OP $11.54 $16.00 3.9% 42.6% $1,737 ($52) $1,685 9.0x 6.8x 8.0x 0.6x -0.2x -0.8x 9.5x 6.6x 7.3x 12.9x 9.2x 10.4x $158.2 $122.7 $114.6
PrairieSky PSK JK NT $15.14 $18.00 2.0% 20.9% $3,381 ($58) $3,323 14.3x 14.1x 15.0x 0.4x -0.2x -0.9x 14.6x 13.8x 14.3x 17.3x 16.5x 17.1x $178.7 $174.6 $176.8
Topaz TPZ JK OP $17.53 $22.00 4.8% 30.3% $1,974 $117 $2,091 10.7x 7.8x 8.7x 1.3x 0.5x 0.1x 11.9x 10.1x 10.8x 14.6x 12.6x 13.6x $155.8 $161.7 $151.5
Average 3.0% 31.7% 11.7x 10.4x 11.5x 0.5x -0.2x -0.8x 12.0x 10.2x 10.8x 15.1x 12.9x 13.8x $168.5 $148.6 $145.7
Notes: 1) nm = not meaningful, NT = Neutral, OP = Outperformer, UN = Underperformer, R = restricted, N/A = not available; 2) CT - Chris Thompson, DF - Dennis Fong, JK - Jamie Kubik 3) Price targets are 12 to 18 months.
20
Exhibit 23: Energy – Operating Metrics (Strip Deck), 2021E - 2023E

Production (Mboe/d) PPS Growth (%) DAPPS Growth (%) % Gas (%) CAPEX ($MM) Total Payout (%) CF ($MM) FCF Yield (%)
Company Ticker Analyst 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E

ARC ARX JK 302.6 345.3 366.7 4% -1% 6% 4% 28% 27% 62% 60% 60% $979 $1,200 $1,450 48% 44% 55% $2,375 $3,130 $2,984 16% 21% 17%
Canadian Natural CNQ DF 1,237.9 1,283.0 1,303.8 6% 8% 10% 48% 14% 15% 23% 23% 23% $3,521 $3,914 $3,762 43% 42% 43% $13,131 $14,400 $13,399 16% 18% 16%
Cenovus Energy CVE DF 768.8 770.4 770.4 -51% 9% 28% -24% 21% 35% 19% 16% 15% $2,548 $2,873 $2,374 35% 31% 28% $7,591 $9,731 $8,997 18% 24% 23%
Imperial Oil IMO DF 438.3 449.2 462.3 13% 9% 10% 35% 16% 15% 4% 5% 5% $1,018 $1,753 $1,622 33% 41% 47% $5,242 $6,036 $4,933 14% 14% 11%
MEG Energy MEG DF 92.0 91.5 96.0 10% -1% 5% 95% 10% 20% 0% 0% 0% $334 $360 $305 48% 31% 28% $688 $1,154 $1,099 11% 25% 25%
Ovintiv OVV DF 540.1 533.3 526.4 -1% 3% 5% 130% 12% 11% 49% 49% 48% US$1,469 US$1,504 US$1,554 48% 38% 46% US$3,341 US$4,287 US$3,663 19% 28% 21%
Suncor Energy SU DF 746.7 809.1 827.4 10% 18% 13% 24% 19% 13% 0% 0% 0% $4,170 $4,969 $4,579 49% 50% 52% $11,166 $12,328 $10,902 16% 17% 15%
Tourmaline TOU JK 443.8 504.3 511.6 26% 8% 1% 75% 57% 48% 77% 77% 78% $1,393 $1,125 $1,255 59% 34% 44% $3,088 $4,046 $3,385 12% 20% 15%
Average 609.7 634.4 642.5 2% 8% 10% 55% 21% 22% 25% 24% 24% $2,065 $2,357 $2,207 45% 38% 41% $6,321 $7,426 $6,626 15% 21% 18%
Oil-Weighted E&P
Baytex BTE DF 79.8 85.4 91.7 131% 35% 44% 131% 35% 44% 19% 18% 18% $313 $418 $443 44% 44% 46% $711 $948 $958 19% 25% 24%
Crescent Point CPG DF 133.4 130.0 117.1 1% -5% -10% 74% 20% 6% 14% 15% 15% $648 $865 $865 44% 47% 58% $1,487 $1,996 $1,615 23% 30% 20%
Enerplus ERF JK 112.9 121.0 126.8 8% 5% 5% 27% 45% 54% 38% 37% 37% $366 $500 $500 45% 43% 45% $889 $1,260 $1,205 18% 27% 25%
Tamarack Valley TVE JK 34.2 40.9 43.4 -4% 5% 7% 25% 43% 46% 31% 29% 28% $180 $220 $200 55% 40% 40% $325 $553 $502 10% 23% 21%
Vermilion VET DF 83.3 84.3 82.8 30% 38% 21% 29% 37% 20% 46% 47% 46% $347 $464 $468 39% 37% 44% $911 $1,243 $1,056 26% 35% 27%
Whitecap WCP DF 110.9 123.4 134.0 5% 11% 9% 71% 37% 34% 23% 25% 25% $379 $572 $612 46% 44% 51% $1,084 $1,572 $1,453 15% 21% 18%
Average 92.4 97.5 99.3 28% 15% 13% 59% 36% 34% 29% 28% 28% $372 $507 $515 46% 42% 47% $901 $1,262 $1,132 18% 27% 22%
Gas-Weighted E&P
Advantage AAV JK 50.3 56.0 61.3 9% 12% 9% 62% 60% 56% 92% 91% 89% $123 $175 $190 44% 40% 49% $283 $442 $392 13% 22% 17%
Birchcliff BIR CT 79.5 79.4 83.9 4% 0% 6% 88% 67% 92% 79% 80% 79% $232 $245 $229 42% 34% 42% $572 $737 $560 19% 28% 18%
Kelt KEL JK 21.1 30.2 34.9 -16% 43% 16% -16% 76% 41% 63% 61% 60% $175 $200 $210 102% 63% 69% $171 $319 $303 0% 13% 10%
NuVista NVA JK 51.7 65.0 76.9 0% 24% 18% 142% 75% 63% 60% 59% 59% $245 $325 $350 76% 50% 53% $322 $646 $656 6% 24% 23%
Peyto PEY CT 90.3 94.5 97.7 10% 4% 3% 112% 31% 40% 86% 86% 86% $351 $323 $251 72% 45% 36% $496 $729 $717 9% 24% 28%
Paramount POU JK 81.4 86.1 88.2 19% 5% 2% 212% 44% 25% 56% 53% 53% $273 $360 $425 58% 40% 58% $494 $981 $784 8% 23% 13%
Storm SRX CT 27.2 35.0 37.1 14% 26% 8% 54% 80% 72% 79% 78% 78% $115 $96 $102 76% 38% 42% $151 $252 $243 5% 21% 19%
Average 57.3 63.7 68.6 6% 16% 9% 94% 62% 56% 74% 73% 72% $216 $246 $251 67% 44% 50% $355 $587 $522 8% 22% 18%
Royalty Co's
Freehold FRU JK 11.7 13.9 13.7 3% 7% -1% -3% 24% 12% 43% 41% 41% $0 $0 $0 33% 35% 42% $192 $256 $217 11% 15% 12%
PrairieSky PSK JK 19.4 19.0 18.0 1% -2% -5% 0% 3% -1% 50% 48% 46% $0 $0 $0 29% 33% 35% $236 $239 $225 7% 7% 7%
Topaz TPZ JK 14.2 16.1 16.6 0% 1% 3% -28% 7% 7% 87% 78% 77% $1 $2 $2 65% 54% 59% $184 $253 $228 9% 13% 11%
Average 15.1 16.3 16.1 2% 2% -1% -10% 11% 6% 60% 55% 55% $0 $1 $1 43% 41% 46% $204 $250 $223 9% 12% 10%
21
Exhibit 24: Energy – Valuation Metrics (Base Deck), 2021E - 2023E

Price Yield Total Rtn Mkt Cap Net Debt EV P/CF D/CF EV/DACF Target EV/DACF EV/Boe/d ($K/Boe/d)
Company Ticker Analyst Rating 8-Oct-21 Target % % (MM) (MM) (MM) 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E

ARC ARX JK OP $12.43 $16.00 1.8% 30.5% $8,999 $594 $9,594 3.9x 2.9x 2.7x 1.0x 0.2x -0.3x 4.6x 3.0x 2.4x 5.7x 3.9x 3.1x $37.4 $28.3 $22.1
Canadian Natural CNQ DF OP $49.62 $62.00 3.8% 28.7% $58,829 $19,875 $78,834 4.4x 3.7x 3.3x 1.2x 0.7x 0.4x 5.3x 4.0x 3.3x 6.4x 4.9x 4.0x $59.7 $49.9 $40.9
Cenovus Energy CVE DF OP $14.06 $22.00 0.5% 57.0% $28,368 $15,116 $44,930 3.7x 2.5x 1.7x 1.6x 0.7x 0.3x 4.9x 2.9x 1.6x 6.9x 4.2x 2.3x $53.5 $41.3 $23.2
Imperial Oil IMO DF NT $42.56 $50.00 2.5% 20.0% $29,987 $4,825 $34,812 5.7x 4.7x 4.8x 0.5x 0.1x -0.2x 6.1x 4.6x 4.4x 7.1x 5.4x 5.2x $73.7 $62.9 $53.1
MEG Energy MEG DF NT $10.35 $17.00 0.0% 64.3% $3,174 $3,061 $6,264 4.0x 2.6x 2.7x 4.6x 2.3x 1.7x 6.5x 4.0x 3.6x 8.5x 5.4x 5.0x $74.7 $66.4 $54.5
Ovintiv OVV DF NT US$38.41 US$50.00 1.5% 32.9% US$10,028 US$6,149 US$16,084 2.9x 2.1x 2.1x 1.5x 0.9x 0.6x 3.9x 2.8x 2.5x 4.7x 3.4x 3.1x $27.7 $24.1 $21.0
Suncor Energy SU DF OP $28.81 $44.00 2.9% 55.6% $42,769 $18,681 $61,682 3.8x 3.0x 2.6x 1.4x 1.1x 1.0x 4.8x 3.8x 3.3x 6.6x 5.2x 4.5x $76.9 $63.2 $53.2
Tourmaline TOU JK OP $44.73 $60.00 1.6% 35.7% $14,588 ($1,876) $12,713 4.9x 3.7x 3.9x 0.3x -0.5x -1.1x 5.1x 3.2x 2.8x 6.7x 4.4x 4.1x $34.6 $25.1 $20.4
Oil-Weighted E&P
Baytex BTE DF NT $3.76 $4.25 0.0% 13.0% $2,121 $938 $3,060 3.0x 2.2x 1.9x 2.0x 1.0x 0.2x 4.4x 2.9x 2.0x 4.7x 3.2x 2.2x $44.6 $35.8 $26.2
Crescent Point CPG DF OP $6.41 $9.75 0.2% 52.3% $3,729 $1,399 $5,127 2.5x 1.8x 2.0x 1.6x 0.7x 0.3x 3.8x 2.5x 2.3x 5.1x 3.4x 3.3x $46.2 $39.9 $36.7
Enerplus ERF JK OP $11.15 $16.00 0.0% 43.5% $2,863 $132 $2,995 3.3x 2.3x 2.1x 0.9x 0.1x -0.5x 4.0x 2.4x 1.6x 5.4x 3.5x 2.5x $32.5 $25.4 $17.7
Tamarack Valley TVE JK OP $3.56 $5.00 0.0% 40.4% $1,446 $99 $1,545 4.5x 2.6x 2.4x 1.3x 0.2x -0.5x 5.4x 2.7x 1.9x 7.1x 3.8x 2.9x $54.9 $38.0 $26.5
Vermilion VET DF NT $13.66 $15.00 0.0% 9.8% $2,213 $1,020 $3,233 2.6x 2.0x 2.3x 1.9x 0.9x 0.5x 4.2x 2.9x 2.8x 4.4x 3.1x 3.0x $46.1 $39.4 $34.3
Whitecap WCP DF OP $7.53 $10.50 2.4% 41.9% $4,758 $112 $4,870 4.4x 3.0x 2.7x 0.9x 0.1x -0.5x 5.1x 3.0x 2.2x 6.8x 4.2x 3.2x $51.8 $39.2 $28.7
Gas-Weighted E&P
Advantage AAV JK OP $6.40 $9.00 0.0% 40.6% $1,221 ($14) $1,207 4.6x 2.9x 2.9x 0.9x 0.0x -0.6x 5.2x 2.8x 2.3x 6.9x 4.0x 3.5x $28.9 $21.5 $16.0
Birchcliff BIR CT OP $6.70 $9.00 0.4% 34.7% $1,791 $68 $1,859 3.3x 2.7x 2.8x 0.9x 0.1x -0.5x 3.9x 2.7x 2.3x 5.0x 3.6x 3.3x $28.5 $23.4 $17.6
Kelt KEL JK OP $4.93 $6.50 0.0% 31.8% $930 ($142) $788 5.5x 3.0x 2.7x -0.2x -0.5x -0.8x 5.3x 2.5x 1.9x 7.0x 3.5x 2.8x $42.9 $26.3 $18.8
NuVista NVA JK NT $5.82 $7.50 0.0% 28.9% $1,314 $287 $1,601 4.2x 2.1x 1.8x 1.9x 0.5x -0.1x 5.3x 2.5x 1.6x 6.4x 3.1x 2.1x $36.6 $25.3 $16.2
Peyto PEY CT NT $10.17 $11.00 0.4% 8.6% $1,679 $715 $2,394 3.4x 2.4x 2.2x 2.2x 1.0x 0.3x 5.0x 3.3x 2.5x 5.2x 3.5x 2.6x $30.6 $26.0 $20.0
Paramount POU JK NT $20.17 $27.00 0.6% 34.5% $2,686 ($322) $2,364 5.4x 2.8x 3.0x 0.4x -0.3x -0.8x 5.3x 2.5x 2.2x 7.0x 3.4x 3.2x $35.4 $27.6 $22.2
Storm SRX CT NT $5.99 $7.00 0.0% 16.9% $731 ($51) $680 4.9x 2.9x 2.7x 0.7x -0.2x -0.8x 5.4x 2.8x 2.0x 6.2x 3.3x 2.4x $30.6 $20.3 $14.2
Royalty Co's
Freehold FRU JK OP $11.54 $16.00 3.9% 42.6% $1,737 ($47) $1,690 9.1x 6.9x 7.2x 0.6x -0.2x -0.8x 9.6x 6.7x 6.4x 13.0x 9.4x 9.2x $158.4 $123.0 $113.1
PrairieSky PSK JK NT $15.14 $18.00 2.0% 20.9% $3,381 ($58) $3,323 14.3x 14.1x 15.0x 0.4x -0.2x -0.9x 14.6x 13.8x 14.3x 17.3x 16.5x 17.1x $178.7 $174.6 $176.8
Topaz TPZ JK OP $17.53 $22.00 4.8% 30.3% $1,974 $119 $2,093 10.8x 7.9x 8.2x 1.3x 0.5x 0.1x 11.9x 10.2x 10.2x 14.6x 12.7x 12.7x $155.9 $161.8 $150.8
Average 3.0% 31.7% 11.7x 10.5x 11.1x 0.5x -0.2x -0.8x 12.1x 10.3x 10.3x 15.1x 12.9x 13.2x $168.5 $148.8 $145.0
22
Exhibit 25: Energy – Operating Metrics (Base Deck), 2021E - 2023E

Production (Mboe/d) PPS Growth (%) DAPPS Growth (%) % Gas (%) CAPEX ($MM) Total Payout (%) CF ($MM) FCF Yield (%)
Company Ticker Analyst 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E
ARC ARX JK 301.1 345.3 366.7 3% -1% 6% 3% 27% 33% 63% 60% 60% $979 $1,200 $1,450 49% 45% 50% $2,323 $3,082 $3,312 15% 21% 21%
Canadian Natural CNQ DF 1,237.9 1,283.0 1,303.8 6% 8% 12% 48% 15% 19% 23% 23% 23% $3,521 $3,914 $3,762 42% 39% 37% $13,303 $15,500 $15,743 17% 20% 20%
Cenovus Energy CVE DF 768.8 770.4 770.4 -51% 9% 37% -23% 23% 50% 19% 16% 15% $2,548 $2,873 $2,374 35% 29% 22% $7,656 $10,359 $11,087 18% 26% 31%
Imperial Oil IMO DF 438.3 449.2 462.3 13% 9% 10% 35% 16% 18% 4% 5% 5% $1,018 $1,752 $1,611 33% 41% 41% $5,289 $6,127 $5,602 14% 15% 13%
MEG Energy MEG DF 92.0 91.5 96.0 10% -1% 5% 98% 12% 22% 0% 0% 0% $334 $360 $305 42% 29% 25% $794 $1,251 $1,201 15% 28% 28%
Ovintiv OVV DF 540.1 533.3 526.4 -1% 4% 6% 131% 13% 15% 49% 49% 48% US$1,469 US$1,504 US$1,554 46% 37% 41% US$3,460 US$4,393 US$4,103 20% 29% 25%
Suncor Energy SU DF 746.7 809.1 827.4 10% 19% 16% 24% 20% 17% 0% 0% 0% $4,170 $4,969 $4,579 48% 47% 43% $11,280 $12,995 $13,087 17% 19% 20%
Tourmaline TOU JK 443.8 504.3 511.6 26% 8% 1% 72% 54% 57% 77% 77% 78% $1,393 $1,125 $1,255 61% 34% 40% $2,978 $3,979 $3,709 11% 20% 17%
Average 609.7 634.4 642.5 2% 8% 12% 55% 22% 28% 25% 24% 24% $2,065 $2,357 $2,206 44% 37% 36% $6,394 $7,801 $7,790 16% 22% 22%
Oil-Weighted E&P
Baytex BTE DF 79.8 85.4 91.7 130% 34% 61% 130% 34% 61% 19% 18% 18% $313 $418 $443 44% 44% 39% $708 $958 $1,125 19% 25% 32%
Crescent Point CPG DF 133.4 130.0 117.1 1% -5% -10% 74% 21% 12% 14% 15% 15% $648 $865 $865 43% 46% 50% $1,505 $2,030 $1,852 23% 31% 26%
Enerplus ERF JK 112.9 121.0 126.8 8% 5% 5% 26% 41% 70% 38% 37% 37% $366 $500 $500 46% 44% 39% $874 $1,234 $1,373 18% 26% 31%
Tamarack Valley TVE JK 34.2 40.9 43.4 -4% 5% 7% 25% 43% 64% 31% 29% 28% $180 $220 $200 55% 40% 34% $325 $553 $593 10% 23% 27%
Vermilion VET DF 83.3 84.3 82.8 27% 31% 16% 26% 30% 15% 46% 47% 46% $347 $464 $468 43% 42% 48% $839 $1,094 $973 22% 28% 23%
Whitecap WCP DF 110.9 123.4 134.0 5% 11% 9% 71% 38% 48% 23% 25% 25% $379 $572 $612 46% 44% 42% $1,081 $1,579 $1,743 15% 21% 24%
Average 92.4 97.5 99.3 28% 13% 14% 59% 35% 45% 29% 28% 28% $372 $507 $515 46% 43% 42% $889 $1,241 $1,277 18% 26% 27%
Gas-Weighted E&P
Advantage AAV JK 50.3 56.0 61.3 9% 12% 9% 59% 55% 60% 92% 91% 89% $123 $175 $190 47% 42% 46% $263 $421 $417 11% 20% 19%
Birchcliff BIR CT 79.5 79.4 83.9 4% 0% 6% 83% 51% 106% 79% 80% 79% $232 $245 $229 44% 37% 37% $542 $672 $634 17% 24% 23%
Kelt KEL JK 21.1 30.2 34.9 -16% 43% 16% -16% 74% 56% 63% 61% 60% $175 $200 $210 103% 64% 61% $170 $314 $346 -1% 12% 15%
NuVista NVA JK 51.7 65.0 76.9 0% 24% 18% 140% 71% 80% 60% 59% 59% $245 $325 $350 79% 52% 47% $310 $621 $749 5% 22% 30%
Peyto PEY CT 90.3 94.5 97.7 10% 4% 3% 112% 29% 44% 86% 86% 86% $351 $323 $251 73% 47% 34% $489 $700 $767 8% 22% 31%
Paramount POU JK 82.0 86.1 88.2 20% 5% 2% 215% 41% 37% 56% 53% 53% $273 $360 $425 58% 41% 51% $499 $959 $899 8% 22% 18%
Storm SRX CT 27.2 35.0 37.1 14% 26% 8% 53% 78% 91% 79% 78% 78% $115 $96 $102 78% 39% 38% $148 $248 $269 5% 21% 23%
Average 57.4 63.7 68.6 6% 16% 9% 92% 57% 68% 74% 73% 72% $216 $246 $251 69% 46% 45% $346 $562 $583 8% 21% 23%
Royalty Co's
Freehold FRU JK 11.7 13.9 13.7 3% 7% -1% -4% 24% 15% 43% 41% 41% $0 $0 $0 34% 36% 37% $190 $253 $243 11% 15% 14%
PrairieSky PSK JK 19.4 19.0 18.0 1% -2% -5% 0% 3% -1% 50% 48% 46% $0 $0 $0 29% 33% 35% $236 $239 $225 7% 7% 7%
Topaz TPZ JK 14.2 16.1 16.6 0% 1% 3% -28% 7% 8% 87% 78% 77% $1 $2 $2 65% 54% 56% $183 $251 $242 9% 13% 12%
Average 15.1 16.3 16.1 2% 2% -1% -10% 11% 7% 60% 55% 55% $0 $1 $1 43% 41% 43% $203 $248 $237 9% 11% 11%
23
Exhibit 26: Oilfield Services – Valuation Metrics, 2021E - 2023E

Price Div. Yield Total Return Mkt Cap Net Debt EV P/CF EV/EBITDA Target EV/EBITDA Net Debt/EBITDA
Company Name Ticker Currency Analyst Rating 10/8/2021 Target (% ) (% ) (MM) (MM) ($MM) 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E
Drilling Contractors
Ensign Energy Services ESI CAD JK NT $2.19 $2.75 0% 26% $356 $1,189 $1,545 3.0x 1.8x 1.6x 7.6x 5.2x 4.3x 8.0x 5.5x 4.6x 6.0x 4.0x 3.2x
Helmerich & Payne HP USD NR NR $30.79 NR 3% NR $3,322 $27 $3,349 22.6x 13.1x 8.9x 37.9x 13.4x 8.5x NR NR NR 0.4x 0.1x -0.2x
Nabors Industries NBR USD NR NR $110.82 NR 0% NR $897 $2,251 $3,148 2.4x 2.3x 1.8x 6.9x 5.4x 4.4x NR NR NR 5.0x 3.9x 3.1x
Patterson UTI PTEN USD NR NR $9.09 NR 1% NR $1,718 $539 $2,257 12.8x 5.3x 3.9x 14.0x 6.9x 4.6x NR NR NR 3.9x 1.6x 0.7x
Precision Drilling PD CAD JK NT $55.82 $65 0% 16% $748 $855 $1,602 5.4x 3.3x 2.9x 7.1x 5.1x 4.1x 7.6x 5.5x 4.5x 4.1x 2.7x 1.9x
Group Average 1% 10.8x 6.0x 4.4x 16.5x 7.7x 5.4x 3.3x 2.1x 1.4x
Compression
Archrock, Inc. AROC USD NR NR $8.59 NR 7% NR $1,323 $1,491 $2,814 5.5x 5.7x N/A 8.2x 8.3x N/A NR NR NR 4.5x 4.4x N/A
Enerflex EFX CAD JK NT $9.79 $12.00 1% 23% $878 $354 $1,232 7.4x 5.2x 4.8x 7.8x 6.3x 5.4x 9.0x 7.3x 6.3x 2.2x 1.8x 1.5x
Exterran Corporation EXTN USD NR NR $4.55 NR 0% NR $147 $725 $872 8.4x 2.2x 1.0x 5.0x 5.2x 3.6x NR NR NR 4.0x 4.4x 2.9x
Total Energy Services TOT USD NR NR $4.92 NR 53% NR $12,991 $28,798 $41,788 0.5x 0.5x 0.5x 1.3x 1.1x 1.1x NR NR NR 1.0x 0.8x 0.7x
USA Compression Partners USAC USD NR NR $16.94 NR 12% NR $1,644 $1,971 $3,616 N/A N/A N/A 9.0x 8.4x 8.4x NR NR NR 4.9x 4.6x 4.8x
Waste Management
Clean Harbors CLH USD NR NR $106.54 NR 0% NR $5,796 $1,168 $6,964 11.6x 10.8x 11.5x 11.2x 10.6x 10.0x NR NR NR 2.1x 1.8x 1.4x
Republic Services RSG USD NR NR $125.64 NR 1% NR $39,999 $8,784 $48,783 15.0x 13.9x N/A 14.7x 13.8x 13.0x NR NR NR 2.7x 2.5x 2.3x
Secure Energy Services SES CAD JK OP $5.36 $7.00 1% 31% $1,254 $846 $2,100 6.4x 4.5x 4.0x 9.1x 4.7x 3.6x 10.5x 5.5x 4.4x 4.2x 1.9x 1.1x
Notes: 1) nm = not meaningful, NT = Neutral, OP = Outperformer, UN = Underperformer, R = Restricted, N/A = Not Available, NR = Not Rated; 2) JK – Jamie Kubik 3) Price targets are 12 to 18 months.
24
Quarterly Estimates
The table in Exhibit 27 outlines our 2021 quarterly estimates for our E&P coverage universe
while the table in Exhibit 28 outlines our 2021 quarterly estimates for our oilfield services
coverage universe.
We expect the average CFPS increase in Q3/21 over Q2/21 for the E&Ps and royalty
companies under coverage to be 30%. For most stocks, we expect CFPS to nearly double by
Q4/21 from Q2/21 levels, increasing, on average, by 77%.
Exhibit 27: Energy – Quarterly Estimates (Base Deck), 2021E
2021E Total Production (Mboe/d) 2021E Capex ($MM) 2021E CFPS ($/sh)
Company Ticker Q1A Q2A Q3E Q4E Q1A Q2A Q3E Q4E Q1A Q2A Q3E Q4E
ARC Resources ARX 170.4 335.7 349.8 346.1 $125.7 $292.8 $330.0 $230.0 $0.77 $0.75 $0.92 $1.12
Canadian Natural ResourcesCNQ 1,245.7 1,141.7 1,232.8 1,330.6 $790.3 $1,307.3 $906.0 $517.9 $2.14 $2.59 $3.04 $3.39
Cenovus Energy CVE 769.3 765.8 780.2 759.0 $547.0 $534.0 $661.8 $805.1 $0.54 $0.88 $1.11 $1.23
Imperial Oil IMO 431.8 401.3 438.9 446.1 $167.0 $241.0 $304.1 $306.2 $1.28 $1.21 $2.24 $2.73
MEG Energy MEG 90.8 91.8 91.8 93.5 $70.0 $71.0 $92.8 $99.7 $0.39 $0.52 $0.73 $0.93
Ovintiv OVV 538.3 554.5 534.7 533.0 US$350.0 US$383.0 US$378.0 $358.0 US$3.43 US$2.81 US$3.33 US$3.73
Suncor Energy SU 785.9 699.7 692.2 809.4 $803.0 $1,347.0 $1,245.9 $774.6 $1.39 $1.57 $1.77 $2.88
Tourmaline TOU 411.6 410.3 455.7 496.5 $396.4 $226.5 $420.0 $350.0 $2.12 $1.89 $2.24 $3.33
Oil-Weighted E&P
Baytex Energy BTE 78.8 81.2 79.5 79.9 $83.6 $61.5 $84.0 $84.0 $0.28 $0.31 $0.31 $0.36
Crescent Point Energy CPG 119.4 148.6 133.9 131.5 134.4 100.7 196.1 216.4 $0.49 $0.64 $0.68 $0.79
Enerplus ERF 91.7 115.4 122.6 121.7 $65.9 $130.4 $105.0 $65.0 $0.52 $0.72 $0.97 $1.16
Tamarack Valley Energy TVE 23.9 32.4 39.9 40.3 $48.7 $30.8 $70.0 $30.0 $0.16 $0.19 $0.23 $0.30
Vermilion Energy VET 86.3 86.3 78.3 82.5 $83.4 $79.2 $85.8 $98.4 $1.02 $1.05 $1.38 $1.60
Whitecap Resources WCP 95.8 116.8 113.4 117.5 $118.9 $39.4 $165.1 $56.1 $0.36 $0.43 $0.44 $0.54
Gas-Weighted E&P
Advantage Oil & Gas AAV 49.8 50.0 49.5 51.7 $17.2 $21.0 $35.0 $50.0 $0.29 $0.23 $0.33 $0.53
Birchcliff Energy BIR 75.1 75.3 85.0 82.4 $96.6 $81.2 $25.3 $29.3 $0.33 $0.33 $0.60 $0.77
Kelt Exploration KEL 18.9 19.6 19.7 26.0 $29.5 $45.8 $60.0 $40.0 $0.14 $0.15 $0.20 $0.40
NuVista Energy NVA 45.9 51.5 51.3 58.0 $80.9 $44.3 $80.0 $40.0 $0.14 $0.25 $0.36 $0.59
Peyto Exploration PEY 88.1 88.7 89.6 94.9 $73.3 $56.9 $119.5 $100.9 $0.70 $0.49 $0.62 $1.07
Paramount Resources POU 80.5 80.0 82.5 85.0 $59.3 $83.5 $70.0 $60.0 $0.62 $0.51 $1.04 $1.58
Storm Resources SRX 25.9 26.9 25.4 30.6 $24.9 $10.0 $47.0 $33.2 $0.30 $0.23 $0.25 $0.41
Royalty Co's
Freehold Royalty FRU 10.9 11.1 11.1 13.6 $0.0 $0.0 $0.1 $0.1 $0.25 $0.31 $0.36 $0.46
PrairieSky Royalty PSK 19.4 19.7 19.3 19.3 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.22 $0.25 $0.30 $0.29
Topaz Energy TPZ 11.7 12.3 15.3 17.3 $0.6 ($0.0) $0.3 $0.3 $0.31 $0.32 $0.37 $0.52
25
Exhibit 28: Oilfield Services – Quarterly EBITDA Estimates, 2021E - 2023E

EBITDA EBITDA EBITDA
Company Name Ticker Currency Analyst Rating Q1/21A Q2/21E Q3/21E Q4/21E Q1/22E Q2/22E Q3/22E Q4/22E Q1/23E Q2/23E Q3/23E Q4/23E
Drilling Contractors
Ensign ESI CAD JK NT $49.9 $45.6 $61.7 $65.6 $76.3 $58.8 $80.5 $83.5 $83.0 $66.6 $82.1 $84.3
Precision Drilling PD CAD JK NT $65.3 $55.2 $60.9 $63.2 $80.9 $56.1 $85.6 $91.9 $95.4 $70.0 $88.8 $89.8
Group Average
Compression
Enerflex EFX CAD JK NT $33.7 $42.5 $39.9 $40.4 $46.0 $49.3 $49.8 $51.7 $50.2 $54.2 $57.7 $60.2
Group Average
Waste Management
Secure Energy SES CAD JK OP $39.2 $30.0 $96.8 $93.3 $93.3 $101.6 $133.4 $119.9 $116.8 $112.9 $139.4 $126.1
Group Average
Notes: 1) NT = Neutral, OP = Outperformer, UN = Underperformer, R = restricted; 2) JK – Jamie Kubik 3) Price targets are 12 to 18 months.
26
Price Target Calculations And Key Risks To Price Targets

Advantage Energy: Our 12- to 18-month price target of $9.00 (prior $7.00) is based on a
target 2022 EV/DACF multiple of 3.7x on strip pricing. We estimate strip net debt of -$54MM
in 2022. The primary sector risks to the company achieving our price target include a decline
in commodity prices and rising industry costs. The company-specific risks include degrading
liquids yields, higher-than-expected production decline rates and unplanned facility (Glacier)
downtime.
ARC Resources: Our 12- to 18-month price target of $16.00 (prior $14.00) is based on a
target 2022 EV/DACF multiple of 3.8x on strip pricing. We estimate strip net debt of $478MM
in 2022. The primary sector risks to our price target include a decline in commodity prices
and rising industry costs. The company-specific risks include unplanned facility downtime,
higher-than-expected production decline rates, and project budget and timing overruns.
Baytex Energy: Our 12- to 18-month price target of $4.25 (prior $3.00) is based on a target
2022 EV/DACF multiple of 3.2x on strip pricing. We estimate strip net debt of $913MM in
2022. The primary sector risks to the company achieving our price target include a decline in
commodity prices and rising industry costs. The company-specific risks include degrading
liquids yields, particularly in the Eagle Ford, and higher-than-expected production decline
rates.
Birchcliff Energy: Our 12- to 18-month price target of $9.00 (prior $6.50) is based on a
in commodity prices and rising industry costs. The company-specific risks include unplanned
facility downtime and higher-than-expected production decline rates.
Canadian Natural Resources: Our 12- to 18-month price target of $62.00 (prior $58.00) is
based on 0.9x our RNAV and maps to a 2022E EV/DACF multiple of 4.9x and FCF yield of
17.3% on our base price deck, including current net debt of $19.9B, including leases. If
commodity prices were to decline sharply, especially for sustained periods of time, Canadian
Natural’s revenue, cash flows and financial flexibility would become more challenged. And
while the company typically engages in some form of financial hedging to protect against
these risks, the platform tends to be fairly under-hedged and exposed to commodity price
fluctuations.
Cenovus Energy: Our 12- to 18-month price target of $22.00 (prior $20.00) is based on 0.8x
our RNAV and maps to a 2022E EV/DACF multiple of 4.8x and FCF yield of 16.8% on our
base price deck, including current net debt of $15.1B, including leases. If commodity prices
were to decline sharply, especially for sustained periods of time, Cenovus’ revenue, cash flow
and financial flexibility would be materially challenged. A large portion of Cenovus’ existing
production comes from the oil sands within the WCSB, which is facing pipeline takeaway
issues, and, as a result, the company is subject to wider-than-normal price differentials. In
addition to the aforementioned company-specific and commodity macro risks, there is rising
risk around GHG legislation for the oil sands and other upstream production.
Crescent Point Energy: Our 12- to 18-month price target of $9.75 (prior $9.00) is based on
a target 2022 EV/DACF multiple of 3.5x on strip pricing. We estimate strip net debt of
$1,403MM in 2022. The primary sector risks to the company achieving our price target
include a decline in commodity prices and rising industry costs. The company-specific risks
include degrading capital efficiencies due to weakening production profiles, regional price
inflation given fluctuating activity levels in Western Canada and the U.S., and infrastructure
constraints that may limit the ability to tie in new production.
27
Enerflex: Our 12- to 18-month price target of $12.00 (prior $10.00) is based on a target 2022
EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.3x. We estimate net debt of $354MM in 2022. If commodity prices
were to decline sharply, especially for sustained periods, Enerflex’s customers may choose to
curtail their capital programs, which would have a negative impact on the company’s
long-term contract portfolio, utilization rates and pricing power. Price-based competition or an
inflating cost structure could reduce profitability and our price target. Enerflex generates the
majority of its revenue and cash flow from the global natural gas industry and is exposed to
potential hardship due to any changes in regulatory structure of new or existing projects.
Enerplus: Our 12- to 18-month price target of $16.00 (prior $13.00) is based on a target
2022 EV/DACF multiple of 3.3x on strip pricing. We estimate strip net debt of $64MM in 2022.
The primary sector risks to our price target include a decline in commodity prices and rising
industry costs. The company-specific risks include degrading liquids yields, higher-than-
expected production decline rates, and unplanned facility downtime.
Ensign Energy Services: Our $2.75 price target (prior $2.50) is based on a multiple of 5.5x
EV/EBITDA in 2022E. Our target multiple is based on the average of Ensign’s historical
trading range of 5.9x-6.2x, and implies 5.5x 2022E EV/EBITDA and 4.6x 2023E EV/EBITDA.
If commodity prices were to decline sharply, especially for sustained periods, Ensign’s
customers may choose to curtail their capital programs, which would have a negative impact
on the company’s long-term contract portfolio, utilization rates and pricing power. Price-based
competition or an inflating cost structure could reduce profitability and our price target. A
large and sustained increase in the Canadian dollar would have a negative impact on
Ensign’s revenue and margins in its U.S. and International segments. The company
generates the majority of its revenue and cash flow from the global oil and natural gas
industry and is exposed to potential hardship due to any changes in the regulatory structure
of new or existing projects.
Freehold Royalties: Our 12- to 18-month price target of $16.00 (prior $14.00) is based on a
and rising industry costs. The company-specific risks include weaker-than-expected light oil
production, widening heavy oil differentials, higher-than-expected production decline rates,
and a lack of third-party activity.
Imperial Oil: Our 12- to 18-month price target of $50.00 (prior $48.00) is based on 1.0x our
RNAV and maps to a 2022E EV/DACF multiple of 5.4x and FCF yield of 13.4% on our base
price deck, including current net debt of $4.8B, including leases. If commodity prices were to
decline sharply, especially for sustained periods of time, Imperial Oil’s revenue, cash flow and
financial flexibility would become more challenged. And while the company typically engages
in some form of financial hedging to protect against these risks, the platform tends to be fairly
under-hedged and exposed to commodity price fluctuations.
Kelt Exploration: Our 12- to 18-month price target of $6.50 (prior $5.50) is based on a target
2022 EV/DACF multiple of 3.4x on strip pricing. We estimate strip net debt of -$148MM in
commodity prices and rising industry costs. The company-specific risks include degrading
liquids yields, higher-than-expected production decline rates, and project budget and timing
overruns.
MEG Energy: Our 12- to 18-month price target of $17.00 (prior $14.00) is based on 0.6x our
RNAV and maps to a 2022E EV/DACF multiple of 5.4x and FCF yield of 16.9% on our base
price deck, including current net debt of $3.1B, including leases. If commodity prices were to
decline sharply, especially for sustained periods of time, MEG’s revenue, cash flow and
financial flexibility would be materially challenged. And while the company typically engages
in some form of financial hedging to protect against these risks, the platform tends to be fairly
28
under-hedged and more exposed to commodity price fluctuations than some of its peer
group. All of MEG’s existing production comes from the oil sands within the WCSB, which is
facing pipeline takeaway issues, and, as a result, the company is subject to wider-than-
normal price differentials. Rising operating costs and/or any slippage in execution at the
company’s key Christina Lake oil sands project would also pressure the company’s operating
and financial results. In addition to the aforementioned company-specific and commodity
macro risks, there is rising risk around GHG legislation for the oil sands and other upstream
production.
NuVista Energy: Our 12- to 18-month price target of $7.50 (prior $5.00) is based on a target
2022. The primary sector risks to our price target include a decline in commodity prices and
rising industry costs. The company-specific risks include degrading liquids yields,
higher-than-expected production decline rates, and unplanned facility downtime.
Ovintiv: Our 12- to 18-month price target of $50.00 (prior $40.00) is based on 1.0x our RNAV
and maps to a 2022E EV/DACF multiple of 3.4x and FCF yield of 23.9% on our base price
deck, including current net debt of $6.1B, including leases. If commodity prices were to
decline sharply, especially for sustained periods of time, Ovintiv’s revenue, cash flow and
financial flexibility would become more challenged. Additionally, continued execution of its
drilling program is critical to realizing its communicated growth plans, and any significant cost
inflation, type curve degradation or other operational risks could jeopardize them.
Paramount Resources: Our 12- to 18-month price target of $27.00 (prior $20.00) is based
on a target 2022 EV/DACF multiple of 3.3x on strip pricing. We estimate strip net debt of
-$339MM in 2022. The primary sector risks to our price target include a decline in commodity
prices and rising industry costs. The company-specific risks include degrading liquids yields,
unplanned facility downtime, and financial liquidity constraints.
Peyto Exploration & Development: Our 12- to 18-month price target of $11.00 (prior $8.00)
is based on a target 2022 EV/DACF multiple of 3.3x on strip pricing. We estimate strip net
debt of $678MM in 2022. The primary sector risks to the company achieving our price target
include degrading liquids yields, higher-than-expected production decline rates, and
unplanned facility downtime.
PrairieSky Royalty: Our 12- to 18-month price target of $18.00 (prior $17.00) is based on a
and rising industry costs. The company-specific risks include higher-than-expected
production decline rates and weak regional gas prices, muting growth.
Precision Drilling: Our $65.00 price target (prior $60.00) is based on a multiple of 5.5x
EV/EBITDA for 2022E, accounting for net debt of $855MM. Our target multiples are based on
the average of Precision’s historical trading range of 5.5x-6.0x. If commodity prices were to
decline sharply, especially for sustained periods, Precision’s customers may choose to curtail
their capital programs, which would have a negative impact on the company’s long-term
contract portfolio, utilization rates and pricing power. Price-based competition or an inflating
cost structure could reduce profitability and our price target. A large and sustained increase in
the Canadian dollar would have a negative impact on Precision’s revenue and margins in its
U.S. and International segments. The company generates the majority of its revenue and
cash flow from the global oil and natural gas industry and is exposed to potential hardship
due to any changes in the regulatory structure of new or existing projects.
29
SECURE Energy Services: Our 12- to 18-month price target of $7.00 (prior $6.50) is based
on a target 2022 EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.7x. We estimate strip net debt of $846MM in 2022.
If commodity prices were to decline sharply, especially for sustained periods, SECURE’s
customers may choose to further curtail their capital programs and reduce oil and gas
production, which would have a negative impact on demand for SECURE’s services.
Price-based competition or an inflating cost structure could reduce profitability and our price
target. The ability to transport waste depends on weather conditions, which can affect
SECURE’s business, as well as environmental regulations, which impose specific
responsibilities and liabilities on the company’s operations. In the event that the Competition
Bureau succeeds in challenging the combination of SECURE with Tervita and the impact is
beyond an immaterial level to EBITDA generation, a greater-than-expected impact could
affect our view of the future cash flow generation of the business. SECURE’s operations can
involve the assumption of environmental liability and the potential for environmental
contamination. While the company maintains insurance and follows strict design and
operational procedures and policies, a potential environmental impairment and liability claim
could have an adverse effect on the company’s business, financial condition and results of
operations.
Storm Resources: Our 12- to 18-month price target of $7.00 (prior $6.30) is based on a
and rising industry costs. The company-specific risks include higher-than-expected
production decline rates and weak regional gas prices, muting growth.
Topaz Energy: Our 12- to 18-month price target of $22.00 (prior $21.00) is based on a target
commodity prices and rising industry costs. The company-specific risks include weaker-than-
expected natural gas production, higher-than-expected production decline rates, and
interruptions to processing revenue.
Tamarack Valley: Our 12- to 18-month price target of $5.00 (prior $4.00) is based on a
target 2022E EV/DACF multiple of 3.8x on strip pricing. We estimate strip net debt of $98MM
in 2022E. The primary sector risks to the company achieving its price target include the risk
of a decline in commodity prices and rising industry costs. Company-specific risks include
infrastructure constraints that may limit Tamarack Valley’s ability to tie-in new production and
changes to production deliverability assumptions (i.e., initial production rates and production
declines) on Tamarack Valley’s undeveloped assets.
Tourmaline Oil: Our 12- to 18-month price target of $60.00 (prior $55.00) is based on a
target 2022 EV/DACF multiple of 4.3x on strip pricing. We estimate strip net debt of
-$2,053MM in 2022. The primary sector risks to the company achieving our price target
include infrastructure constraints that may limit Tourmaline’s ability to tie in new production
and changes to production deliverability assumptions (i.e., initial production rates and
production declines) on Tourmaline’s undeveloped assets.
Vermilion Energy: Our 12- to 18-month price target of $15.00 (prior $12.50) is based on a
in 2022. The primary sector risks to the company achieving our price target include an
increase in commodity prices and falling industry costs. The company-specific risks to
outperforming our price target include non-core asset sales at accretive valuations, a large
dividend cut, and/or dramatic improvements in capital efficiencies.
Whitecap Resources: Our 12- to 18-month price target of $10.50 (prior $9.25) is based on a
30
in commodity prices and rising industry costs. The company-specific risks include
infrastructure constraints that may limit Whitecap’s ability to tie in new production, widening
heavy oil differentials, and changes to production deliverability assumptions (i.e., initial
production rates and production declines) on Whitecap’s undeveloped assets.
31
CIBC Ratings and Price Targets

Price Target Price Target Rating Rating
Ticker Price Prior Current Prior Current
AAV-CA C$6.28 C$7.00 C$9.00 Outperformer Outperformer
ARX-CA C$11.82 C$14.00 C$16.00 Outperformer Outperformer
BTE-CA C$3.66 C$3.00 C$4.25 Neutral Neutral
BIR-CA C$6.65 C$6.50 C$9.00 Outperformer Outperformer
CNQ-CA C$50.02 C$58.00 C$62.00 Outperformer Outperformer
CVE-CA C$14.01 C$20.00 C$22.00 Outperformer Outperformer
CPG-CA C$6.08 C$9.00 C$9.75 Outperformer Outperformer
EFX-CA C$9.97 C$10.00 C$12.00 Neutral Neutral
ERF-CA C$10.90 C$13.00 C$16.00 Outperformer Outperformer
ESI-CA C$2.16 C$2.50 C$2.75 Neutral Neutral
FRU-CA C$11.45 C$14.00 C$16.00 Outperformer Outperformer
IMO-CA C$42.08 C$48.00 C$50.00 Neutral Neutral
KEL-CA C$4.68 C$5.50 C$6.50 Outperformer Outperformer
MEG-CA C$10.27 C$14.00 C$17.00 Neutral Neutral
NVA-CA C$5.49 C$5.00 C$7.50 Neutral Neutral
OVV-US US$38.51 US$40.00 US$50.00 Neutral Neutral
POU-CA C$19.22 C$20.00 C$27.00 Neutral Neutral
PEY-CA C$9.41 C$8.00 C$11.00 Neutral Neutral
PSK-CA C$14.87 C$17.00 C$18.00 Neutral Neutral
PD-CA C$56.92 C$60.00 C$65.00 Neutral Neutral
SES-CA C$5.44 C$6.50 C$7.00 Outperformer Outperformer
SRX-CA C$5.81 C$6.30 C$7.00 Outperformer Neutral
TVE-CA C$3.40 C$4.00 C$5.00 Outperformer Outperformer
TPZ-CA C$17.41 C$21.00 C$22.00 Outperformer Outperformer
TOU-CA C$43.11 C$55.00 C$60.00 Outperformer Outperformer
VET-CA C$13.23 C$12.50 C$15.00 Neutral Neutral
WCP-CA C$7.45 C$9.25 C$10.50 Outperformer Outperformer
Source: Company notes and CIBC World Markets Inc.
32
Changes To CIBC Estimates

Ticker Earnings Type FYE 2020 Prior 2020 Current 2021 Prior 2021 Current 2022 Prior 2022 Current
AAV-CA CFPS Dec C$0.56 C$0.56 C$1.19 C$1.37 C$1.56 C$2.21
ARX-CA CFPS Dec C$1.89 C$1.89 C$3.30 C$3.63 C$3.59 C$4.18
BTE-CA CFPS Dec C$0.56 C$0.56 C$1.12 C$1.26 C$1.35 C$1.70
BIR-CA CFPS Dec C$0.69 C$0.69 C$1.79 C$2.03 C$1.95 C$2.51
CNQ-CA CFPS Dec C$4.13 C$4.13 C$10.28 C$11.17 C$12.01 C$13.55
CVE-CA CFPS Dec C$0.09 C$0.09 C$3.53 C$3.75 C$4.36 C$5.53
CPG-CA CFPS Dec C$1.62 C$1.64 C$2.45 C$2.61 C$2.99 C$3.44
EFX-CA Adj. EBITDA Dec C$210.81 C$210.81 C$151.64 C$156.49 C$192.93 C$206.24
ERF-CA CFPS Dec C$1.61 C$1.61 C$3.18 C$3.39 C$4.10 C$4.68
ESI-CA Adj. EBITDA Dec C$241.53 C$241.53 C$218.53 C$222.82 C$301.25 C$299.11
FRU-CA CFPS Dec C$0.62 C$0.62 C$1.29 C$1.39 C$1.43 C$1.66
IMO-CA CFPS Dec C$1.20 C$1.20 C$7.11 C$7.41 C$7.32 C$9.10
KEL-CA CFPS Dec C$0.31 C$0.31 C$0.82 C$0.90 C$1.31 C$1.66
MEG-CA CFPS Dec C$0.78 C$0.78 C$2.15 C$2.57 C$3.68 C$4.04
NVA-CA CFPS Dec C$0.70 C$0.70 C$1.20 C$1.35 C$2.11 C$2.66
OVV-US CFPS Dec US$7.47 US$7.47 US$13.07 US$13.30 US$13.96 US$17.71
POU-CA CFPS Dec C$1.00 C$1.00 C$3.24 C$3.75 C$5.71 C$7.18
PEY-CA CFPS Dec C$1.29 C$1.29 C$2.65 C$2.88 C$3.34 C$4.09
PD-CA Adj. EBITDA Dec C$282.10 C$282.10 C$246.93 C$244.64 C$306.80 C$314.55
SES-CA Adj. EBITDA Dec C$136.10 C$136.10 C$245.50 C$259.41 C$429.38 C$448.18
SRX-CA CFPS Dec C$0.47 C$0.47 C$1.06 C$1.19 C$1.55 C$1.96
SU-CA CFPS Dec C$2.54 C$2.54 C$6.82 C$7.58 C$8.22 C$9.60
TVE-CA CFPS Dec C$0.54 C$0.54 C$0.84 C$0.91 C$1.14 C$1.35
TPZ-CA CFPS Dec C$0.99 C$0.99 C$1.37 C$1.45 C$1.52 C$1.77
TOU-CA CFPS Dec C$4.36 C$4.36 C$8.77 C$9.65 C$9.48 C$12.26
VET-CA CFPS Dec C$3.18 C$3.03 C$4.93 C$4.97 C$5.85 C$6.48
WCP-CA CFPS Dec C$1.06 C$1.08 C$1.62 C$1.72 C$2.14 C$2.51
Source: Company notes and CIBC World Markets Inc.
33
Important Disclosures
Analyst Certification: Each CIBC World Markets Inc. research analyst named on the front page of this research report, or
at the beginning of any subsection hereof, hereby certifies that (i) the recommendations and opinions expressed herein
accurately reflect such research analyst's personal views about the company and securities that are the subject of this
report and all other companies and securities mentioned in this report that are covered by such research analyst and (ii) no
part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations
or views expressed by such research analyst in this report.
Potential Conflicts of Interest: Equity research analysts employed by CIBC World Markets Inc. are compensated from
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In addition to 1% ownership positions in covered companies that are required to be specifically disclosed in this report,
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Recipients of this report are advised that any or all of the foregoing arrangements, as well as more specific disclosures set
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CIBC World Markets Inc. does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result,
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CIBC World Markets Inc. Stock Rating System

Stock Ratings Abbreviation Description
Outperformer OP Stock is expected to outperform similar stocks in the coverage universe during the next 12-18 months.
Neutral NT Stock is expected to perform in line with similar stocks in the coverage universe during the next 12-18 months.
Underperformer UN Stock is expected to underperform similar stocks in the coverage universe during the next 12-18 months.
Not Rated NR CIBC World Markets does not maintain an investment recommendation on the stock.
Restricted R CIBC World Markets is restricted (due to potential conflict of interest) from rating the stock.
Sector Ratings Abbreviation Description

Overweight O Sector is expected to outperform the broader market averages.
Marketweight M Sector is expected to equal the performance of the broader market averages.
Underweight U Sector is expected to underperform the broader market averages.
None NA Sector rating is not applicable.
Note: Broader market averages refer to S&P 500 in the U.S. and S&P/TSX Composite in Canada.
34
CIBC World Markets Inc. Price Chart

For price and performance charts, please visit CIBC on the web at https://researchcentral.cibcwm.com/rcportal/pricecharts
or write to CIBC World Markets Inc., 161 Bay Street, 4th Floor, Toronto, ON M5H 2S8, Attn: Research Disclosure Chart
Request.
Important Disclosure Footnotes

For important disclosure footnotes for companies mentioned in this report that are covered by CIBC World Markets Inc., click
here: CIBC Disclaimers & Disclosures
Companies mentioned in the report but not listed are not covered by fundamental research at CIBC.
Ratings Distribution*: CIBC World Markets Inc. Coverage Universe

(as of 14 Oct 2021) Count Percent Inv. Banking Relationships Count Percent
Outperformer 180 61.9% Outperformer 180 100.0%
Neutral 104 35.7% Neutral 103 99.0%
Underperformer 7 2.4% Underperformer 7 100.0%
Restricted 9 3.1% Restricted 9 100.0%
Important disclosures required by applicable rules can be obtained by visiting CIBC World Markets on the web at
https://researchcentral.cibcwm.com/rcportal/legaldisclaimer. Important disclosures for each issuer can be found on Research Central Website by
navigating through the following path: Company & Industry Research < Companies Listing < Ticker < Company page. Access to the system for our
dissemination policy can be found at the bottom of each page on the Research Central website. These important disclosures can also be obtained by
writing to CIBC World Markets Inc., 161 Bay Street, 4th Floor, Toronto, ON M5H 2S8, Attention: Research Disclosures Request.
Access to CIBC Equity Research

Clients may access CIBC Equity Research online at Research Central at https://researchcentral.cibcwm.com/, or at the
following research aggregators: Bloomberg, Refinitiv, Capital IQ, and FactSet.
35
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36
Legal Disclaimer (Continued)

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EQUITY RESEARCH Dennis Fong, P.Eng.

Jamie Kubik, CPA, CA

October 14, 2021 Rating Change - Downgrade

Oil & Gas Q3/21 Preview

Inflation is likely to impact capital efficiencies in 2022: We expect up to

inflationary pressures to be within reason, but think a 10% increase in pricing up to

is likely, and should continue to improve margins for energy service up to

All figures in Canadian dollars otherwise stated.

Crude Oil – Market Update

Exhibit 1: Energy – OPEC+ Production Cuts, 2019 - 2021E

Exhibit 2: Energy – Global Oil Balances, 2019 - April 2022

Inventory Change (MMBbl/d)

Exhibit 3: Energy – WCSB Crude Oil Takeaway Capacity, 2019 - 2025E

Exhibit 4: Energy – USGC Crack Spread, 2016 - Present

5-Yr Range (2016-2020) 5-Yr Avg (2016-2020) 2021 2020

Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Gasoline Demand Jet Fuel Demand

Exhibit 6: Energy – Refinery Utilization, 2016 - Present

PADD II Refinery Utilization PADD III Refinery Utilization

Refinery Utilization (%)

Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Natural Gas – Choose Your Own Adventure

Exhibit 7: Energy – U.S. Natural Gas Storage, 2016 - 2021

Source: EIA and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Source: S&P Global Platts.

Exhibit 9: Energy – Europe Natural Gas Storage, 2016 - 2021

Storage Change (Bcf)

Source: Bloomberg, GIE and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Source: TC Energy, Enbridge, TransCo and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Commodity Price Forecasts – CIBC Base Deck

 WTI: US$67.91/Bbl (US$64.76/Bbl prior)

Exhibit 11: Energy – CIBC Base Deck, 2021E - 2023E

Source: Bloomberg, Platts and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Commodity Price Forecasts – Current Futures Strip

Exhibit 12: Energy – Future Strip Pricing, 2021E - 2023E

Source: Bloomberg, Platts and CIBC World Markets Inc.

North American Rig Counts

Exhibit 13: Energy – U.S. DUC Inventories (2013 - 2023E)

Source: EIA and CIBC World Markets Inc.

A continued ascent of drilling activity is likely, but a meaningful supply response

Rig Count Forecast

U.S. L48 Rig Count (Actual & Forecast)

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E

Source: Energy Aspects, geoSCOUT and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Our Estimates Vs. Consensus Q3/21E

Source: FactSet, company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Source: FactSet, company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Exhibit 18: Energy (E&P) – Our Estimate Changes, 2021E - 2023E

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Oilfield Services Estimate Changes

Exhibit 19: Oilfield Services – Our Estimate Changes, 2021E - 2023E

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Ratings And Price Targets

Source: FactSet and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Exhibit 21: Energy – Historical Valuation And Forward Estimates, 2022E

Exhibit 22: Energy – Valuation Metrics (Strip Deck), 2021E - 2023E

Source: FactSet and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Exhibit 23: Energy – Operating Metrics (Strip Deck), 2021E - 2023E

Large Cap/Oil Sands Producers

Source: FactSet and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Exhibit 24: Energy – Valuation Metrics (Base Deck), 2021E - 2023E

Large Cap/Oil Sands Producers

Source: FactSet and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Exhibit 25: Energy – Operating Metrics (Base Deck), 2021E - 2023E