Clearwater From NBF

NBCFM Research | Industry Note
October 2, 2022
INDUSTRY RATING Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels

Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels:
Overweight
Clearwater Symposium
(NBF Economics & Strategy Group)
We recently hosted a symposium of Clearwater players (BTE, HWX, Spur, TPZ & TVE), who account
for approximately 80% of production across the project, and which continued to distill & frame
the relative opportunity within the highest return project in the Basin (as discussed in our previous
Clearwater thematic) and their resulting relative value potential (off a now discounted base of
valuation, with the Clearwater arguably ON SALE trading at 2.6x 2023e EV/DACF).
Key Takeaways
• Project Scalability Remains – A question which has increasingly been topical is; how much
can the Clearwater be scaled by (it already being Canada’s largest conventional oil play ~100
mbbl/d)? Perspectives offered by operators indicate that runway remains ample, with identified
scalable potential to 150 – 200 mbbl/d within long-term growth projections.
• Key Initiatives Evolving – That growth will come on the back of (and augmented by) key
initiatives including;
○ Continued exploration success; each operator spoke towards new & evolving opportunity-
set in multi-zonal prospects across a massive expanse of the fairway.
○ On-going deployment of waterflood; selectively suggested across the fairway with

positive and evolving success.
○ Complementary & evolving infrastructure picture; where significant infrastructure in-

place in addition to new initiatives should continue to support that growth.
○ Opportunity for M&A; On the back of the TVE/Deltastream transaction, consolidation

remains topical, while the project remains fragmented and opportunity remains.
○ Managing access to services & inflation; The project remains a low intensity
development, and as such, inflationary pressures have been modest.
• Something for Everyone – Given that potential opportunity within an expanding & high-
return project like the Clearwater, we believe ALL investors should have exposure here, and
optimistically, there is literally something for everyone (with relevant notes for each company
published within this note);
○ BTE – Rate of change story, where although taking a cautious approach, the strength of
Research: NBCFM Energy
its results should see it easily eclipse targets.
● ResearchEnergy@nbc.ca
Analyst Dan Payne, CFA ○ HWX – Pure play public organic growth across a scalable asset with significant free cash
(403) 290-5441 ● dan.payne@nbc.ca capabilities.
Analyst Travis Wood ○ Spur – Pure play private organic growth, and the outright leader in the play.
(403) 290-5102 ● travis.wood@nbc.ca
○ TVE - Portfolio approach, with outperformance of return of capital likely to come
Associate Logan Fisher
(403) 441-0933 ● logan.fisher@nbc.ca
through increased proportional exposure to the Clearwater.
Associate Nick Stevenson ○ TPZ – Best in class income-growth & value through high-visibility in a high-quality
(403) 441-0928 ● nick.stevenson@nbc.ca portfolio.
Associate Jacob Swan
(403) 290-5445 ● jacob.swan@nbc.ca
Associate Trevor Martensson For required disclosures, please refer to the end of the document.
(403) 290-5624 ● trevor.martensson@nbc.ca
Industry Note
NBCFM Research | October 2, 2022
Clearwater Symposium
We recently hosted a symposium of Clearwater players (BTE, HWX, Spur, TPZ & TVE), who account for
approximately 80% of production across the project, and which continued to distill & frame the relative
opportunity within the highest return project in the Basin (as discussed in our previous Clearwater thematic)
and their resulting relative value potential (off a now discounted base of valuation, with the Clearwater
arguably ON SALE trading at 2.6x 2023e EV/DACF).
Exhibit 1: Rig Efficiency Changes vs. Production Growth by Play
160%
Bakken (CAN)
Niobrara
140%
Anadarko Duvernay
2021 Rig Efficiency vs. 3 Yr. Avg.
120%
Mississippian
Clearwater (78%)
100%
Bakken (US) Appalachia

80%
60% Eagle Ford
Permian
Viking
40% Montney Charlie Lake
Cardium
Haynesville
20%
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
3-Year Production CAGR (%)
Source: NBF, Company Reports, geoSCOUT, EIA
Exhibit 2: Clearwater and Other Liquids Peer Comparables

Market Div. FCF
Cap Net Debt EV Yield Yield EV/DACF Production Gas DAPPS Growth CF Netback CF Margin D/CF Drawn FCF Total Net
Ticker ($mln) ($mln) ($mln) (%) (%) (x) (mboe) (%) (%) ($/bbl) (%) (x) (%) ($mln) Payout
2022E 2022E 2022E 2022E 2022E 2023E 2022E 2023E 2022E 2022E 2023E 2022E 2023E 2022E 2023E 2022E 2023E 2022E 2022E 2023E 2022E 2023E
BTE $3,385 $854 $4,239 0% 19% 3.4x 2.6x 84.0 88.0 18% 76% 22% $38.01 $41.21 57% 54% 0.7x 0.1x 22% $644 $719 45% 46%
HWX $1,254 -$164 $1,090 0% 5% 3.7x 3.4x 13.0 17.9 8% 62% 47% $62.74 $44.75 65% 54% -0.6x -1.0x nmf $68 $117 77% 60%
TVE $2,157 $1,326 $3,483 3% 12% 4.9x 2.5x 44.0 70.0 25% -7% 61% $42.03 $42.74 55% 54% 2.0x 0.7x 83% $260 $557 61% 49%
Clearwater Peer Avg 1% 12% 3.7x 2.6x 17% 62% 47% $47.59 $42.90 59% 54% 0.7x 0.1x 53% 61% 52%
Market Div. FCF

Cap Net Debt EV Yield Yield EV/DACF Production Gas DAPPS Growth CF Netback CF Margin D/CF Drawn FCF Total Net
Ticker ($mln) ($mln) ($mln) (%) (%) (x) (mboe) (%) (%) ($/bbl) (%) (x) (%) ($mln) Payout
CPG $4,660 $808 $5,468 3% 25% 2.4x 1.9x 132.0 135.5 19% 38% 27% $46.39 $47.93 65% 61% 0.4x 0.1x 0% $1,147 $1,055 48% 56%
ERF $4,215 $523 $4,738 1% 24% 2.9x 2.7x 98.8 101.6 62% 19% 29% $43.87 $39.58 67% 57% 0.3x 0.1x 7% $993 $727 37% 50%
LOU $387 $61 $449 0% 24% 2.8x 2.0x 10.8 11.3 18% 62% 25% $38.89 $41.54 57% 55% 0.4x -0.3x 22% $95 $108 38% 37%
SGY $680 $190 $870 3% 22% 2.4x 2.3x 21.2 21.5 14% 43% 14% $42.24 $40.18 55% 50% 0.6x 0.2x 0% $149 $114 54% 64%
VET $4,849 $1,032 $5,880 1% 28% 2.9x 2.0x 90.4 103.7 48% 70% 46% $60.07 $57.95 66% 64% 0.5x -0.2x 4% $1,380 $1,531 30% 30%
WCP $5,415 $1,688 $7,103 4% 28% 2.9x 3.0x 143.0 171.6 30% 37% 24% $46.54 $32.63 60% 48% 0.7x 0.4x 46% $1,499 $822 38% 60%
YGR $213 $119 $332 0% 37% 1.7x 1.3x 11.2 12.0 55% 125% 45% $44.93 $38.30 75% 72% 0.6x 0.1x 61% $78 $108 57% 36%
Other Liquids Peer Avg 2% 27% 2.8x 2.0x 35% 43% 27% $46.13 $42.59 63% 58% 0.5x 0.1x 20% 43% 47%
Source: NBF, Company Reports, geoSCOUT, EIA
2
Industry Note
Key Themes
 Project Scalability Remains – A question which has increasingly been topical is; how much can the
Clearwater be scaled by (it already being Canada’s largest conventional oil play ~100 mbbl/d; from
a standing-start and within cash flow under a constrained price deck over the past 4-5 years)?
Perspectives offered by operators indicate that runway remains ample, with identified scalable
potential to 150 – 200 mbbl/d within long-term growth projections (logically a diminishing rate of
change of ~15% project CAGR over 3-5 years). As we have repeatedly noted, the high-velocity of
returns in the Clearwater will support growth on a very well-funded basis (i.e. maintenance under a
15% payout ratio and 30% growth noted under a 30-40% payout), which magnifies its potential
volumetric “scalability” by a factor of 3x on a FCF per barrel basis (see below Exhibit 3) – uniquely,
capital is not the question for this asset but inventory & pace of development are;
o Direct Quotes – As evidence of the economic potential and value opportunity;
o “you can pay down debt by drilling wells”,
o “the more rigs you add the more cash you generate”,
o “break-even <$40/bbl WTI shows its resilience”, and
o “pay a base dividend and grow production at 25% per year at $50/bbl WTI”.
Exhibit 3: WCSB Project Comparison; Compounding Return Scenarios

$3,000 $300
Clearwater (Marten Hills); RoC (CAGR): 126%
Clearwater (Peavine); RoC (CAGR): 102%
Clearwater (Average); RoC (CAGR): 95%
CAGR: 95%
$2,500 Clearwater (Nipisi); RoC (CAGR): 98% CAGR: 59% $250
Charlie Lake; RoC (CAGR): 58%
Implied Cash Flow ($mln)
Clearwater (Canal); RoC (CAGR): 50%

Mississippian; RoC (CAGR): 44%
$2,000 $200
Basin Median; RoC (CAGR): 41%
Montney; RoC (CAGR): 31%
Clearwater (Southern Fariway); RoC (CAGR): 30%
$1,500 Clearwater (Other); RoC (CAGR): 7% $150
Cardium; RoC (CAGR): 6%
Viking; RoC (CAGR): 3%
$1,000 $100
CAGR: 24%
$500 $50
$0 $0
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
Returns are based on compounding re-investment of cash flow under estimated sustaining fundamentals (i.e. capital efficiency, decline & netback at
strip).
Source: NBF, Company Reports, geoSCOUT
Exhibit 4: Clearwater Vintage Decline

120.0 1,200 120.0 25%
Gas Liquids % Gas
2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 Pre-2018 Producing Wells
100.0 1,000 100.0

20%
Production (mboe/d)
Production (mboe/d)
80.0 800 80.0

Producing Wells (#)
15%
% Gas
60.0 600 60.0
10%
40.0 400 40.0
5%
20.0 200 20.0
0.0 0 0.0 0%
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Nov-18
Nov-20
Nov-21
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Mar-19
May-19
Nov-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
<2018 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg.
Exit Production (mboe/d) 1.9 5.1 9.7 6.9 33.5 46.0 103.2 Avg. Production (mboe/d) 9.0 19.4 27.2 53.6 89.9 39.8
Calculated Decline (%) 23% 7% 24% 29% 32% 42% ∆Y/Y (%) - 114% 41% 97% 68% 78%
Contribution (%) 2% 5% 9% 7% 32% 45%
W.A. Decline (%) 34%
3
Industry Note
 Key Initiatives Evolving – That growth will come on the back of (and augmented by) key initiatives
including;
o Continued exploration success; each operator spoke towards new & evolving opportunity-set
in multi-zonal prospects across a massive expanse of the fairway (i.e. over 400 km from NW
to SE and at least 50,000 sq km with exploration likely to expand this; see below Exhibit 5),
which remains de-risked by historical development of underlying formations.
o On-going deployment of waterflood; selectively suggested across the fairway with positive
and evolving success (see below Exhibits 18 & 19) in support of the resilience, duration &
significance of long-term free cash (suggested to be analogous to SAGD).
o Complementary & evolving infrastructure picture; where significant infrastructure in-place

in addition to new initiatives should continue to support that growth, while also providing
opportunity for augmented realizations & returns (as if it needs the help…).
o Opportunity for M&A; On the back of the TVE/Deltastream transaction, consolidation

remains topical, and while the project remains fragmented and opportunity remains, one
operator appropriately framed the potential for M&A as being moderated when considered
on the basis of risked-assets and probability of success (stuff to be done, but potentially
more modest in size).
 That said, we continue to believe that a) the high-efficiency of the assets can
backfill any perceived price risk to drive ample accretion (over any time scale), and
b) the free cash generation potential inherent to these assets at maturity should
find increasing appetite from return-oriented majors over the long-term (i.e.
FCF/bbl 3x greater than competing conventional assets).
o Managing access to services & inflation; The project remains a low intensity development
(i.e. shallow & unfraced), and as such, access to services and inflationary pressures have
been modest (15-20% Y/Y noted) and abating.
 Something for Everyone – Given that potential opportunity within an expanding & high-return
project like the Clearwater, we believe ALL investors should have exposure here (BECOMING
IMPOSSIBLE TO IGNORE), and optimistically, there is literally something for everyone (with relevant
notes for each from our symposium published within this note);
o BTE – Rate of change story, where although taking a cautious approach, the strength of its
results should see it easily eclipse targets and support accelerating de-leveraging & return
of capital.
o HWX – Pure play public organic growth across a scalable asset with a view to establishing
significant free cash capabilities.
o Spur – Pure play private organic growth, and the outright leader in the play will continue to
advance massive value potential across multiple initiatives.
o TVE - Portfolio approach, with outperformance of return of capital likely to come through
increased proportional exposure to the Clearwater.
o TPZ – Best in class income-growth & value through high-visibility in a high-quality portfolio
(Clearwater being only the tip of an enormous iceberg).
4
Industry Note
Exhibit 5: Clearwater Operator Map & Significant Delineation Wells
Legend
HWX BTE
CJ Clear North
CNQ CVE
ITE Longshore
OBE POU
RBY Spur
Summerland TVE
Woodcote Clearwater Wells
5
Industry Note
Exhibit 6: Top 10 Wells Brought on in Each Area (Peak Cal-Day, Normalized per 1,000 m Lateral Length)
120
Peavine
Marten Hills
100
Nipisi
Peak Cal-Day per 1,000m LL (boe/d)
Southern Fairway

80
Other (Canal) Other

Other (Canal) Other (Canal)
60
Other (Canal) Other (Canal) Other (Canal)
Other (Canal)
Other (West MH)
Other (Canal) Other (Canal)
40

20
13-34 (Spur)
09-36 (Spur)
16-04 (Spur)
03-35 (Spur)
09-01 (Spur)
02-30 (Spur)
16-29 (Spur)
09-19 (Spur)
02-11 (Spur)
03-11 (Spur)
09-18 (Spur)
13-23 (HWX)
12-34 (HWX)
01-11 (TVE)
05-23 (HWX)
16-35 (HWX)
12-20 (TVE)
15-07 (HWX)
06-12 (TVE)
01-30 (BTE)
03-27 (BTE)
01-30 (BTE)
08-30 (BTE)
03-27 (BTE)
06-27 (BTE)
11-31 (BTE)
13-27 (BTE)
06-31 (BTE)
14-31 (BTE)
04-30 (TVE)
03-03 (TVE)
05-30 (TVE)
13-21 (TVE)
14-20 (TVE)
13-21 (TVE)
15-25 (TVE)
04-24 (TVE)
15-24 (TVE)
14-21 (TVE)
13-20 (TVE)
03-31 (TVE)
11-04 (TVE)
12-31 (TVE)
14-12 (TVE)
15-15 (CNQ)
12-17 (CNQ)
09-14 (CNQ)
15-02 (CNQ)
08-14 (CNQ)
04-21 (SL)
Note: SL indicates Summerland Energy Inc. (Private)
Exhibit 7: Top 15 Clearwater Wells Brought On-Stream (Peak Cak-Day, Normalized per 1,000 m Lateral Length)
Well Data Well Production Data Lateral Production Data (/1000m) Cross Sectional Well View
No. of Total Lat. Avg. Lat. Average Prod Cum. Average Prod Total Peak 30 Day Average Average Prod Cum. Average Prod Total Peak 30 Day
Current Operator First Prod UWI Area Laterals Length Length (IP90) Prod (IP90) (IP365) Cum. Prod Prod Water Cut (IP90) Prod (IP90) (IP365) Cum. Prod Prod
# m m Boe/d Boe Boe/d Boe Boe/d % Boe/d Boe Boe Boe/d
Baytex Mar-22 100/01-30-078-15W5/02 Peavine 4 11,916 2,979 730 67,165 N/A 140,967 1,203 0 61 5,637 N/A 11,830 101
CNQ Jun-22 100/15-15-073-25W4/00 Marten Hills 4 5,276 1,319 437 40,157 N/A 40,157 522 6 83 7,611 N/A 7,611 99
Baytex Apr-22 100/08-30-078-15W5/00 Peavine 4 11,663 2,916 662 60,225 N/A 109,504 1,040 0 57 5,164 N/A 9,389 89
Baytex Apr-22 102/03-27-078-16W5/00 Peavine 4 11,388 2,847 454 41,289 N/A 85,490 866 1 40 3,626 N/A 7,507 76
CNQ Jun-18 100/12-17-073-24W4/04 Marten Hills 4 6,873 1,718 321 29,546 346 300,659 483 10 47 4,299 50 43,748 70
CNQ Jun-18 102/09-14-073-25W4/04 Marten Hills 4 6,690 1,673 313 28,765 336 342,001 411 8 47 4,300 50 51,121 61
CNQ Apr-22 100/15-02-073-25W4/00 Marten Hills 4 6,526 1,631 149 13,569 N/A 37,717 400 7 23 2,079 N/A 5,780 61
Baytex Aug-21 102/11-31-078-15W5/02 Peavine 8 15,140 1,892 579 53,295 473 143,656 921 1 38 3,520 31 9,489 61
Headwater Aug-21 102/13-23-074-25W4/00 Marten Hills 4 6,379 1,595 237 21,830 181 64,134 377 1 37 3,422 28 10,054 59
Headwater Dec-19 102/12-34-074-25W4/00 Marten Hills 8 13,161 1,645 566 51,527 489 314,679 748 0 43 3,915 37 23,910 57
Tamarack Valley Feb-19 100/01-11-074-25W4/00 Marten Hills 8 10,768 1,346 418 37,216 493 364,264 603 5 39 3,456 46 33,828 56
Baytex Jul-21 100/13-27-078-16W5/00 Peavine 9 15,254 1,695 606 55,778 539 200,738 843 4 40 3,657 35 13,160 55
Top Well Avg 5 10,360 2,123 466 42,608 408 166,083 755 3 46 4,183 40 17,166 73
All Clearwater Avg 7 10,387 1,588 168 15,103 145 60,536 174 18 16 1,463 14 6,299 17
6
Industry Note
Company Summaries
Baytex Energy Corp. (OP & $9 TP based on an unchanged 4.0x 2023e EV/DACF multiple; see our note on
BTE’s Q2/22, including Clearwater results) – The benefactor of the absolute strongest wells in the entire
Clearwater project (high rates a function of superior reservoir characteristic; more akin to the Bluesky than
conventional Clearwater), the company is well positioned to capitalize on a large value proposition across
125 sections of highly prospective land (increasingly confident that could be closer to 200 sections of its
hundreds of sections of regional lands; 50 sections currently de-risked with a decade of inventory). Current
production sits in the range of 9 mboe/d from <30 wells (on its way to 10 mboe/d at YE; take the over),
significantly outperforming its risked type-curve (by a factor of 2x; consistent contribution noted from ERH
development) and delivering growth achieved well within cash flow (60% payout; notable support from
significant regional infrastructure in-place, provides flexibility & augmented netback) - while pace of
development is important (given social considerations across the Peavine Metis Settlement; will cautiously
advance under a 1-2 rig program), we would suggest that it will continue to decimate long-term growth
forecasts (i.e. 15 mboe/d currently stated “bluesky” target…), which again, as a function of its high-return
nature should serve to accelerate de-leveraging and accelerated return of capital ($800 mln near-term debt
target likely in Q1/23; ~20% 2023e FCF yield implied at strip) in support of value.
Exhibit 8: BTE Historic Consensus EV/DACF Multiple
10.0x $10
+/- 1 St. Dev. (EV/DACF) EV/DACF Share Price
9.0x $9
Cons. EV/DACF (1 Yr Fwd Rolling)
8.0x $8
7.0x $7
Share Price ($/sh)

6.0x $6
5.0x $5
4.0x $4
3.0x $3
2.0x $2
1.0x $1
0.0x $0
Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22
Source: NBF, Bloomberg
Exhibit 9: BTE Clearwater Vintage Decline

10.0 25
8.0 20
Production (mboe/d)
Producing Wells (#)
6.0 15
4.0 10
2.0 5
0.0 0
May-18
Mar-18
May-19
May-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jan-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
Jan-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
Jan-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Jan-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
<2018 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total

Exit Production (mboe/d) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 6.6 8.0
Calculated Decline (%) 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 57%
Contribution (%) 0% 0% 0% 0% 18% 82%
7
Industry Note
Headwater Exploration Inc. (OP & $9.50 TP based on an unchanged 6.0x 2023e EV/DACF multiple; see
our note discussing HWX's Q2/22 results) – The pure-play public Clearwater operator maintains a tangible
opportunity to establish a massive value proposition organically, through the exploration, delineation &
development of its extensive suite of assets (400 sections of land with multi-zonal potential, only ~10%
developed to date), as evidenced by de-risking of its West Marten Hills project (from exploration to now
development & potential for +8 mboe/d), and with multiple incremental projects to pad its low-risk base
forecasts (i.e. 22.5 mboe/d could look more like 50 mboe/d on an unrisked basis; Peavine, Shadow/Seal,
Utikuma to be tested), and all of which could be complemented by further M&A (albeit, potentially more
modest on a risked basis). Regardless, and potentially underappreciated (a first! See Exhibit 10 historical
multiple chart), is the value prospect offered by the high-return asset base (as noted above), where its base
program could support a ~20% free cash yield and its long-term risked/unrisked potential (on a similar basis)
could support a yield of between +30-40% - we are not short on confidence in long-term upside here (as
always, we can’t help but draw the organic analogy to Spur, for which HWX is probably only a year or so
behind).
Exhibit 10: HWX Historic EV/DACF Multiple
12.0x $12
10.0x $10
8.0x $8
Share Price ($/sh)

6.0x $6
4.0x $4
2.0x $2

0.0x $0
Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22
Exhibit 11: HWX Clearwater Vintage Decline

14.0 140

12.0 120
10.0 100
Production (mboe/d)
Producing Wells (#)
8.0 80
6.0 60
4.0 40
2.0 20
0.0 0
Mar-18
May-18
Sep-18
Mar-19
May-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Sep-20
Mar-21
Sep-21
Jan-18
Jul-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Nov-20
May-21
Jan-22
May-22
Jan-21
Jul-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
Jul-22
<2018 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total

Contribution (%) 2% 1% 12% 4% 48% 35%
8
Industry Note
Spur Petroleum Ltd. (Private) – Perhaps no longer the largest operator (for now…), but still the absolute
leader in the play, the company continues to thoughtfully expand its value proposition with concurrent
exploration, delineation, development & waterflood across its massive land spread (1,500 sections). With
that, high-return growth remains the emphasis, with a 6 rig program (up from 4) to deliver 25-30% growth
through 2025 towards critical mass at 60 mboe/d (6-8 yr. duration), all within a ~30% payout ratio in support
of an implied 25% FCF yield (oh, while build or returning about 60% of its market cap in cash)… unreal (“the
more rigs you add the more cash you generate…”). Key initiatives within this outlook (and upside to it) ,
include;
a) continued deployment of waterflood across Marten Hills (analogy to low capital efficiency SAGD
ops.),
b) success across three exploration targets (“exploring for viscosity” across multiple sands and
deploying new techniques) to continue to be tested this winter (more exists elsewhere across the
portfolio) and
c) evolving infrastructure picture in support of augmented realizations & netbacks.
Exhibit 12: Spur Clearwater Vintage Decline

35.0 350

30.0 300
25.0 250
Production (mboe/d)
Producing Wells (#)

20.0 200
15.0 150
10.0 100
5.0 50
0.0 0
Mar-18
May-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jan-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Jan-22
Jul-22
<2018 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total

Contribution (%) 3% 11% 14% 13% 33% 26%
9
Industry Note
Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. (OP & $8 TP based on an unchanged 4.5x 2023e EV/DACF multiple; see our
note discussing TVE's recent acquisition) – The significance of its aggressive pivot to the Clearwater cannot
be understated (now its largest operator; 1/3rd of total project volumes), where again, as a function of its
high-return nature, its proportional FCF generation (see above) will significantly drive the long-term de-
leveraging & return of capital of the business (“you can pay down debt by drilling wells”). Disciplined
development of a risked portfolio of assets (752 net sections of land; multi-zonal, and some entirely risked),
emphasis on its core competency of waterflood, and benefits of the aggregate infrastructure footprint (incl.
Rangeland exposure; benefits of blending/marketing/economies etc.), will almost certainly augment &
optimize its value potential. Bottom line, expect its return of capital and value potential to outperform
expectations (21% 2023e FCF yield forecast at strip) as a function of the increased exposure & emphasis in
the Clearwater (and elsewhere in top tier plays like the Charlie Lake, and all with underlying support of the
broader waterflood portfolio).
Exhibit 13: TVE Historic EV/DACF Multiple
8.0x $8
7.0x $7
6.0x $6
Share Price ($/sh)

5.0x $5
4.0x $4
3.0x $3
2.0x $2
1.0x $1
0.0x $0
Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22
Exhibit 14: TVE Clearwater Vintage Decline

40.0 400

35.0 350
30.0 300
Production (mboe/d)
Producing Wells (#)
25.0 250
20.0 200
15.0 150
10.0 100
5.0 50
0.0 0
Mar-18
May-18
Mar-19
May-19
Mar-22
Jan-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
May-21
May-22
Nov-20
Mar-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jul-22
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
<2018 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total

Contribution (%) 2% 4% 12% 6% 35% 40%
Note: Includes Deltastream production
10
Industry Note
Topaz Energy Corp. (OP & $30 TP based on an unchanged 7% aggregate FCF yield; TPZ's recent
Clearwater royalty acquisition analyzed in this note) – The epitome of a purposeful portfolio, and we
continue to highlight the unique orientation of its business, which results from high-visibility (+$1.5 bln in
committed capital across its lands) through high-quality operators (AAV, HWX, TOU, TVE etc.) across high-
value assets (Clearwater, Charlie Lake, Montney etc.), and which should drive tangible value through further
transactions or dividend growth. Notably, and as noted through the presenting operators, its exposures in
the Clearwater should continue to realize outsized growth (with complements of exploration & waterflood)
in support of high-margin EBITDA growth (again, one of the most resilient projects in the Basin). To that end,
we continue to note an improving duration of opportunity within its portfolio, where growth & exploration
focused operators should continue to press forward and expand the opportunity-set (outside the Clearwater,
we note potential long-term LNG exposure through TOU). Again, that expanding duration of high-margin
returns will continue to give visibility to long-term value growth (based on visible prospective growth of 10-
20% per annum, normalized 60-90% payout ratio and prevailing yield, its equity could be indicated towards
+$50/sh by 2024).
Exhibit 15: TPZ Historic EV/DACF Multiple
14.0x $25
Cons. EV/EBITDA (1 Yr Fwd Rolling)
12.0x $20
Share Price ($/sh)

10.0x $15
8.0x $10
6.0x $5
+/- 1 St. Dev. (EV/EBITDA) EV/EBITDA Share Price

4.0x $0
Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22
11
Industry Note
Exhibit 16: Clearwater Regional Operating Profile

Clearwater Operating Profile by Region
Marten Southern
Nipisi Peavine Canal Other All Areas
Hills Fairway
Aug.'22 Exit Production mboe/d 47.8 27.9 12.2 10.9 2.2 2.3 103.2
3 Year CAGR % 52% 109% 105% N/A N/A 149% 78%
Aug. '22 Share of Total Prod. % 46% 27% 12% 11% 2% 2% 100%
3 Year CAGR % -15% 18% 15% N/A N/A 40% N/A
IP 365 boe/d 174 159 79 246 83 132 143
CAGR % 0% 8% -1% 18% -13% 31% -1%
1 Year Type Curve Decline % 38% 34% 51% 66% 49% 52% 47%
% Change % 28% -22% -5% 0% -7% -6% 44%
First Year Avg. GOR scf/bbl 360 555 612 64 1,035 1,124 462
% Change % 26% 77% 30% -39% 242% 161% 49%
First Year Avg. Water Cut % 15% 15% 22% 16% 41% 26% 18%
% Change % -16% 58% 75% -42% 64% -36% 13%
Normalized IP 365 boe/d 15.5 14.1 6.3 20.4 8.2 12.7 13.0
CAGR % -3% -2% -9% 1% -67% 29% -5%
Normalized 1 Year Decline % 42% 35% 56% 65% 45% 53% 42%
% Change % 55% -18% 14% 14% -17% -5% 35%
Note: Values are based on 2022e type curves, CAGR and Change percentages are based on first year of development in each region
Note: Normalized values are per 1,000 m lateral length
Source: NBF, geoSCOUT
Exhibit 17: Clearwater Play Comparison
30.0 Other
Marten Hills Nipisi Southern Fairway Peavine Canal
IP 360 per 1,000m Lateral Length (boe/d)
3-Yr CAGR: 52% 3-Yr CAGR: 109% 3-Yr CAGR: 105% 3-Yr CAGR: N/A 3-Yr CAGR: N/A 3-Yr CAGR: 149%
2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
1 Year Effective Decline (%)
12
Industry Note
Exhibit 18: Marten Hills; Spur 14-32 Waterflood (“Triple Stacked Waterflood”)
600 Waterflood 1,200
Oil Production Rate (bbl/d)
Commences
Water Injection Rate (bbl/d)
Oil Production & Water Injection (bbl/d)
500 1,000
GOR (scf/bbl)
400 800
GOR (scf/bbl)
Declining GOR &
Increasing Oil Rate
300 600
200 400
100 200
0 0
Apr-18 Aug-18 Dec-18 Apr-19 Aug-19 Dec-19 Apr-20 Aug-20 Dec-20 Apr-21 Aug-21 Dec-21 Apr-22 Aug-22
Cross-Sectional View of "Triple Stacked Waterflood"
25-30 m
Injector
Exhibit 19: Nipisi; TVE 13-19 Waterflood (“Two Step Waterflood”)

1000 250
Oil Production Rate (bbl/d)
900
Oil Production & Water Injection (bbl/d)
Water Injection Rate (bbl/d)

800 200
GOR (scf/bbl)
700
Waterflood
Commences
GOR (scf/bbl)
600 150
Steady, Upward Oil Rate
& Declining GOR
500
400 100
300
200 50
100
0 0
Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22
Bird's Eye View of "Two Step" Waterflood
Injector
Injector
Injector
13
Industry Note
Financial & Operating Summary - Baytex Energy (BTE)

Stock Rating OP Current Share Price $5.85
Target Price $9.00 52 Wk. High / Low $9.16 / $3.21
Yield 0.0% Market Cap ($mln) $3,385
Total Return 54% Enterprise Value ($mln) $4,239
Production Mix 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E Core Assets

Oil & NGLs bbls/d 53,816 44,396 43,033 42,420 45,320
Heavy bbls/d 26,741 21,142 22,188 26,880 27,280
Natural Gas mmcf/d 102.7 85.5 89.6 88.2 92.4
Total BOE/d (6:1) boe/d 97,681 79,781 80,156 84,000 88,000
% Natural Gas % 18% 18% 19% 18% 18%
Growth
Absolute % 21% -18% 0% 5% 5%
PPS % -23% -19% -1% 6% 4%
DAPPS % -22% -61% 164% 76% 22%
Production Growth
120 Production Absolute Growth PPS Growth DAPPS Growth 200%
100 150%
80 100%
mboe/d
60 50%
40 0%
20 -50%
0 -100%
2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E
Netbacks 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E Comparative Metrics 2022E 2023E
Revenue $/boe $50.65 $33.41 $63.86 $92.29 $76.26 BTE Peer Avg. BTE Peer Avg.
Hedging $0.16 $0.00 -$9.19 -$14.53 $0.37 EVDACF 3.4x 2.8x 2.6x 2.3x
Royalties -$8.98 -$5.61 -$11.59 -$19.38 -$16.02 EV/BOE/d $50,468 $51,872 $40,006 $35,566 7.5x
Op. Costs -$11.16 -$11.35 -$11.72 -$14.00 -$13.25 EV/2P $10.18 $12.75 $8.45 $6.64
Transportation -$1.23 -$0.97 -$1.10 -$1.55 -$1.35 NAV
Operating Netback $/boe $29.45 $15.48 $30.24 $42.84 $46.02 P / NAV
5.0x
G&A -$1.28 -$1.17 -$1.39 -$1.40 -$1.40
Interest -$3.01 -$3.65 -$3.15 -$2.43 -$1.27 Dividend Yield 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 2.3%
Tax -$0.06 -$0.02 -$0.04 -$0.80 -$2.13 D/CF 0.7x 0.5x 0.1x 0.1x
Other $0.21 $0.03 -$0.17 -$0.19 $0.00 Total Net Payout 45% 49% 46% 49% 2.5x
Cash Flow Netback $/boe $25.31 $10.67 $25.49 $38.01 $41.21 DAPPS Growth 76% 38% 22% 29%
Cash Costs -$39.75 -$33.26 -$35.42 -$31.66
Cash Flow Margin 57% 63% 54% 57% +/- 1 Std. Dev. LT Avg NBF 2022e
Cash Costs (Ex. Hedging) $/boe -$25.51 -$22.74 -$29.18 -$39.75 -$35.42 0.0x
BTE Peer Avg.
CF Margin (Ex. Hedging) % 50% 32% 54% 57% 54% Decline Rate 28% 28% 30% 27%
Capital Efficiency $17,500 $19,278 $20,000 $19,811
Financial Summary 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E FCF Profile
Revenue $mln $1,806 $975 $1,868 $2,830 $2,450
Cash Flow $mln $902 $312 $746 $1,166 $1,324 $1,500 7.0x
CFPS (diluted) $1.62 $0.56 $1.30 $2.07 $2.33
DPS (basic) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
6.0x
Capital Expenditures $mln -$553 -$283 -$314 -$522 -$605 $1,000
(Acquisitions) / Dispositions -$2 $0 $6 $0 $0
Total -$555 -$282 -$308 -$522 -$605 5.0x
Dividends $mln $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
DRIP $mln $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
(Cdn$ mlns)
$500
D/CF
FREE CASH FLOW $mln $350 $29 $431 $644 $719 4.0x
DRIP Participation % 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3.0x
$0
Dividend Payout 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Capex Payout 61% 91% 42% 45% 46%
2.0x
Total Payout 61% 91% 42% 45% 46%
Total Net Payout 61% 91% 42% 45% 46% -$500
1.0x
Net Debt $mln $1,862 $1,831 $1,397 $854 $135
D/CF 2.1x 5.9x 1.9x 0.7x 0.1x
Cash Flow Capex Dividend DRIP FCF D/CF
-$1,000 0.0x
Credit Facility $mln $1,050 $1,070 $1,021 $1,041 $1,053 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E
% Drawn 48% 61% 49% 22% 0%
Quarterly CFPS (diluted) 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E Reserves 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Q1 $0.40 $0.24 $0.28 $0.49 $0.58
Q2 $0.42 $0.03 $0.31 $0.60 $0.57 Volume mmboe % mmboe % mmboe % mmboe % mmboe
Q3 $0.38 $0.14 $0.35 $0.53 $0.58 PDP 100 26% 135 27% 142 26% 120 29% 129
Q4 $0.42 $0.14 $0.38 $0.43 $0.59 Proved 256 60% 315 59% 314 59% 271 62% 278
Annual $1.62 $0.56 $1.30 $2.07 $2.33 2P 432 100% 527 100% 529 100% 462 100% 451
Quarterly Production (boe/d) 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E Growth
Q1 101,115 98,452 78,780 80,867 88,000 PDP 34% 5% -15% 7%
Q2 98,402 72,508 81,162 83,089 88,000 Proved 23% 0% -13% 3%
Q3 94,926 77,814 79,872 84,000 88,000 2P 0% 22% 1% -13% -2%
Q4 96,361 70,475 80,790 87,966 88,000 RPS (2P) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Annual 97,681 79,781 80,156 84,000 88,000 DARPS (2P) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Commodity Price Assumptions 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E Replacement Costs
WTI Crude oil (US$/bbl) $57.00 $39.25 $68.00 $95.00 $80.00 FD&A Ex. FDC (PDP) $32.95 $13.04 $36.64 $8.06
WCS(C$/bbl) $58.10 $35.50 $68.50 $101.75 $85.25 FD&A Ex. FDC (Proven) $23.75 $15.97 ($21.39) $8.51
Canadian Par (C$/bbl) $69.05 $45.25 $80.50 $119.75 $100.25 FD&A Ex. FDC (P+P) $16.95 $14.35 ($7.26) $16.69
NYMEX gas (US$/mcf) $2.55 $2.15 $3.70 $7.00 $5.00
AECO Basis (US$/mcf) $-1.20 $-0.45 $-0.80 $-2.80 $-1.55 Recycle Ratio Ex. FDC (PDP) 0.5x 1.9x 0.3x 3.2x
AECO gas (C$/mcf) $1.80 $2.25 $3.65 $5.40 $4.50 Recycle Ratio Ex. FDC (Proven) 0.7x 1.6x -0.5x 3.0x
Exchange Rate (US$/C$) $0.75 $0.75 $0.80 $0.78 $0.76 Recycle Ratio Ex. FDC (P+P) 1.0x 1.8x -1.5x 1.5x
Source: Company reports, Bloomberg, NBF estimates, Refinitiv
14
Industry Note
Financial & Operating Summary - Headwater Exploration Inc. (HWX)


Oil & NGLs bbls/d 0 0 0 0 0
Heavy bbls/d 0 249 6,665 11,900 16,871
Total BOE/d (6:1) boe/d 620 882 7,393 13,000 17,900
% Natural Gas % 100% 72% 10% 8% 6%
PPS 6.99 6.07 34.25 55.24 75.08
DAPPS 6.99 10.14 37.99 61.45 90.60
Growth
Absolute % nm 42% 738% 76% 38%
PPS % nm -13% 465% 61% 36%
DAPPS % nm 45% 275% 62% 47%
Production Growth
20,000 Production Absolute Growth PPS Growth DAPPS Growth 300%
18,000
250%
16,000
14,000
200%
12,000
boed
10,000 150%
8,000
100%
6,000
HWX
4,000
50%
2,000
0 0%
2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E
Netbacks (December 31 Year End) 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E Comparative Metrics 2022E 2023E
Revenue $/boe $39.21 $27.63 $66.15 $98.28 $82.74 HWX Peer Avg. HWX Peer Avg.
Hedging $16.31 $17.08 $0.35 -$0.86 $0.00 EV/DACF 3.7x 2.8x 3.4x 2.3x
9.0x
Royalties -$1.02 -$2.03 -$9.61 -$19.34 -$18.20 EV/BOE/d $83,867 $48,161 $54,353 $33,972
Op. Costs -$11.54 -$8.98 -$12.18 -$10.00 -$9.50 EV/2P $83.36 $8.70 $74.38 $6.64 8.0x
Transportation $0.00 -$3.45 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 NAV 7.0x
G&A -$13.27 -$8.78 -$1.48 -$1.30 -$1.00 6.0x
Interest $3.67 $3.54 $0.09 $0.38 $0.54 Dividend Yield 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 2.3% 5.0x
Tax $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -$4.65 -$9.92 D/CF -0.6x 0.6x -1.0x 0.1x
4.0x
Other $2.89 $2.19 $0.38 $0.23 $0.08 Total Net Payout 77% 46% 60% 47%
Cash Flow Netback $/boe $36.26 $27.20 $43.70 $62.74 $44.75 DAPPS Growth 62% 50% 47% 27% 3.0x
Cash Costs -$34.68 -$33.82 -$37.99 -$31.37 2.0x
Cash Flow Margin 65% 62% 54% 57%
1.0x
Cash Costs (Ex. Hedging) $/boe -$19.26 -$17.51 -$22.80 -$34.68 -$37.99
CF Margin (Ex. Hedging) % 51% 37% 66% 65% 54% Decline Rate 24% 28% 22% 28% 0.0x +/- 1 Std. Dev. LT Avg NBF 2022e
Capital Efficiency $17,500 $19,278 $17,500 $20,089 HWX Peer Avg.

Revenue $mln $9 $9 $178 $466 $541
Cash Flow $mln $8 $9 $118 $298 $292
CFPS (diluted) $0.09 $0.06 $0.55 $1.26 $1.23 $400 0.0x
DPS (basic) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
-1.0x
$300
Capital Expenditures $mln -$1 -$2 -$140 -$230 -$175
(Acquisitions) / Dispositions $0 -$34 $0 $0 $0 -2.0x
Total -$1 -$36 -$140 -$230 -$175 $200
Dividends $mln $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 -3.0x
DRIP $mln $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
(Cdn$ mlns)
-4.0x
FREE CASH FLOW $mln $8 $7 -$22 $68 $117
D/CF
$100
-5.0x
$0
-6.0x
Capex Payout 8% 26% 119% 77% 60%
-$100 -7.0x
Total Payout 8% 26% 119% 77% 60%
Total Net Payout 8% 26% 119% 77% 60%
-8.0x
-$200
Net Debt $mln -$64 -$81 -$93 -$164 -$281
-9.0x
D/CF -7.7x -9.2x -0.8x -0.6x -1.0x
-$300 Cash Flow Capex Dividend DRIP FCF D/CF -10.0x
Credit Facility $mln $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E
% Drawn nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf
Quarterly CFPS (diluted) 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E Reserves 2018 2019 2020 2021
Q1 $0.08 $0.05 $0.07 $0.30 $0.30
Q2 $0.00 -$0.00 $0.11 $0.34 $0.30 Volume % mmboe % mmboe % mmboe % mmboe
Q3 -$0.02 -$0.01 $0.14 $0.29 $0.31 PDP nm nm 81% 3 38% 5 41% 10
Q4 $0.02 $0.03 $0.22 $0.34 $0.31 Proved nm nm 81% 3 73% 9 66% 16
Annual $0.09 $0.06 $0.55 $1.26 $1.23 2P nm nm 100% 4 100% 13 100% 24
Q1 1,518 1,487 4,805 12,414 17,900 PDP nm nm 66% 96%
Q2 410 396 6,565 11,772 17,900 Proved nm nm 215% 65%
Q3 0 0 7,688 13,000 17,900 2P nm nm 253% 82%
Q4 586 1,646 10,449 14,788 17,900 RPS (2P) nm nm 115% 22%
Annual 620 882 7,393 13,000 17,900 DARPS (2P) nm nm 260% -19%
WTI Crude oil (US$/bbl) $57.00 $39.25 $68.00 $95.00 $80.00 FD&A Ex. FDC (PDP) nm $0.18 $59.30 $18.59
WCS(C$/bbl) $58.10 $35.50 $68.50 $101.75 $85.25 FD&A Ex. FDC (Proven) nm $2.53 $20.21 $15.74
Canadian Par (C$/bbl) $69.05 $45.25 $80.50 $119.75 $100.25 FD&A Ex. FDC (P+P) nm $2.72 $14.18 $10.41
NYMEX gas (US$/mcf) $2.55 $2.15 $3.70 $7.00 $5.00
AECO Basis (US$/mcf) $-1.20 $-0.45 $-0.80 $-2.80 $-1.55 Recycle Ratio Ex. FDC (PDP) nm 197.0x 0.5x 2.4x
AECO gas (C$/mcf) $1.80 $2.25 $3.65 $5.40 $4.50 Recycle Ratio Ex. FDC (Proven) nm 14.3x 1.3x 2.8x
Exchange Rate (US$/C$) $0.75 $0.75 $0.80 $0.78 $0.76 Recycle Ratio Ex. FDC (P+P) nm 13.4x 1.9x 4.2x
Source: Company reports, Bloomberg, NBF estimates, Refinitiv; December 31 year end
15
Industry Note
Financial & Operating Summary - Tamarack Valley Energy (TVE)


Oil & NGLs bbls/d 15,165 13,289 19,078 20,824 19,100
Heavy bbls/d 0 0 4,613 12,000 39,150
Total BOE/d (6:1) boe/d 24,072 22,027 34,562 44,000 70,000
% Natural Gas % 37% 40% 31% 25% 17%
Growth
Absolute % -1% -8% 57% 27% 59%
PPS % 3% -7% -3% -2% 31%
DAPPS % -10% -35% 30% -7% 61%
Production Growth
70
60%
60
40%
mboe/d
50
40 20%
30
0%
20
-20%
10
0 -40%
2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E
Netbacks 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E Comparative Metrics 2022E 2023E
Revenue $/boe $43.37 $27.40 $55.38 $84.65 $79.00 TVE Peer Avg. TVE Peer Avg.
Hedging -$1.42 $4.09 -$6.40 -$4.28 -$0.07 EVDACF 4.9x 2.9x 2.5x 2.3x
7.5x
Royalties -$4.45 -$3.04 -$8.10 -$16.98 -$15.79 EV/BOE/d $79,155 $48,684 $41,801 $35,366
Op. Costs -$10.03 -$10.59 -$10.78 -$12.90 -$12.00 EV/2P $31.33 $11.66 $26.32 $6.64
Transportation $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 NAV
Operating Netback $/boe $27.47 $17.86 $30.11 $50.50 $51.15 P / NAV 5.0x
G&A -$1.42 -$1.37 -$1.43 -$1.68 -$0.75
Interest -$1.07 -$1.26 -$1.70 -$2.50 -$2.31 Dividend Yield 3.1% 1.4% 4.0% 1.9%
Tax $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -$4.98 -$5.34 D/CF 2.0x 0.5x 0.7x 0.1x
2.5x
Other $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.70 $0.00 Total Net Payout 61% 47% 49% 49%
Cash Flow Netback $/boe $24.97 $15.23 $26.97 $42.03 $42.74 DAPPS Growth -7% 62% 61% 27%
Cash Costs -$38.34 -$33.42 -$36.19 -$31.57 +/- 1 Std. Dev. LT Avg NBF 2022e
Cash Flow Margin 55% 63% 54% 57% 0.0x
Cash Costs (Ex. Hedging) $/boe -$16.97 -$16.26 -$22.00 -$38.34 -$36.19 TVE Peer Avg.
CF Margin (Ex. Hedging) % 61% 41% 60% 55% 54% Decline Rate 30% 28% 27% 28%
Capital Efficiency $16,500 $19,389 $20,000 $19,811
Revenue $mln $381 $221 $699 $1,360 $2,019
Cash Flow $mln $219 $123 $340 $675 $1,092 Cash Flow Capex Dividend DRIP FCF D/CF
CFPS (diluted) $0.97 $0.55 $0.94 $1.44 $1.92 $1,200 2.5x
DPS (basic) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.12 $0.15
$1,000
(Acquisitions) / Dispositions -$10 -$83 -$410 -$1,573 $0 $800 2.0x
Total -$189 -$187 -$601 -$1,933 -$450
Dividends $mln $0 $0 $0 -$55 -$85 $600
DRIP $mln $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
(Cdn$ mlns)
$400 1.5x
FREE CASH FLOW $mln $40 $19 $149 $260 $557
D/CF
$200
$0 1.0x
Capex Payout 82% 84% 56% 53% 41%
-$200
Total Payout 82% 84% 56% 61% 49%
Total Net Payout 82% 84% 56% 61% 49%
-$400 0.5x
Net Debt $mln $189 $219 $462 $1,326 $770

-$600
D/CF 0.9x 1.8x 1.4x 2.0x 0.7x
-$800 0.0x
Credit Facility $mln $350 $275 $600 $700 $700 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E
% Drawn 55% 77% 80% 83% 74%
Q1 $0.25 $0.19 $0.16 $0.39 $0.48
Q2 $0.25 $0.09 $0.21 $0.46 $0.47 Volume % mmboe % mmboe % mmboe % mmboe
Q3 $0.22 $0.14 $0.25 $0.34 $0.48 PDP 31% 32 34% 34 36% 41 31% 56
Q4 $0.24 $0.13 $0.30 $0.27 $0.49 Proved 55% 56 57% 58 57% 64 57% 104
Annual $0.97 $0.55 $0.94 $1.44 $1.92 2P 100% 102 100% 102 100% 111 100% 182
Q1 23,149 23,531 23,938 41,335 70,000 PDP 2% 8% 18% 39%
Q2 24,090 20,997 32,416 43,777 70,000 Proved 8% 4% 10% 63%
Q3 24,171 21,533 41,256 43,000 70,000 2P 0% 0% 0% 0%
Q4 24,859 22,049 40,384 47,828 70,000 RPS (2P) 0% 0% 0% 0%
Annual 24,072 22,027 34,562 44,000 70,000 DARPS (2P) 0% 0% 0% 0%
WTI Crude oil (US$/bbl) $57.00 $39.25 $68.00 $95.00 $80.00 FD&A Ex. FDC (PDP) $23.52 $16.74 $14.02 $21.17
WCS(C$/bbl) $58.10 $35.50 $68.50 $101.75 $85.25 FD&A Ex. FDC (Proven) $17.21 $17.00 $13.09 $11.36
Canadian Par (C$/bbl) $69.05 $45.25 $80.50 $119.75 $100.25 FD&A Ex. FDC (P+P) $11.56 $21.17 $10.42 $7.21
NYMEX gas (US$/mcf) $2.55 $2.15 $3.70 $7.00 $5.00
AECO Basis (US$/mcf) $-1.20 $-0.45 $-0.80 $-2.80 $-1.55 Recycle Ratio Ex. FDC (PDP) 0.0x 1.5x 1.1x 1.3x
AECO gas (C$/mcf) $1.80 $2.25 $3.65 $5.40 $4.50 Recycle Ratio Ex. FDC (Proven) 1.5x 1.5x 1.2x 2.4x
Exchange Rate (US$/C$) $0.75 $0.75 $0.80 $0.78 $0.76 Recycle Ratio Ex. FDC (P+P) 2.2x 1.2x 1.5x 3.7x
Source: Company reports, Bloomberg, NBF estimates, Refinitiv
16
Industry Note
Financial & Operating Summary - Topaz Energy Corp. (TPZ)


Oil & NGLs bbls/d 691 737 1,354 2,613 2,875
Heavy bbls/d nm 0 538 1,643 2,924
Total BOE/d (6:1) boe/d 10,110 10,144 14,103 17,000 19,250
% Natural Gas % 93% 93% 87% 75% 70%
Growth
Absolute % nmf nmf 39% 21% 13%
PPS % nmf nmf 1% 5% 12%
DAPPS % nmf nmf -27% 5% 19%
Production Growth
40%
20
30%
15 20%
mboed
10%
10 0%
-10%
5
-20%
0 -30%
2020 2021 2022 2023
Netbacks (December 31 Year End) 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E Comparative Metrics 2022E 2023E
Revenue $/boe $29.18 $26.90 $41.09 $60.58 $55.54 TPZ Peer Avg. TPZ Peer Avg.
Hedging $0.00 -$0.39 -$1.36 -$1.29 $0.62 EV/EBITDA 9.6x 10.0x / 7.4x 8.4x 9.5x / 7.8x
16.0x
Royalties $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 EV/BOE/d $199,380 $144,071 $165,699 $128,545
Op. Costs -$1.31 -$1.29 -$1.08 -$1.10 -$1.10 EV/2P 14.0x
Transportation $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 NAV 12.0x
10.0x
G&A -$1.46 -$1.06 -$0.98 -$1.00 -$1.00
Interest $0.00 -$0.17 -$0.58 -$0.98 -$0.48 Dividend Yield 5.3% 6.4% / 6.7% 5.8% 6.4% / 6.7% 8.0x
Tax $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 D/CF 1.1x 2.9x / 0.4x 0.5x 2.6x / -0.1x 6.0x
Other $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Total Net Payout 46% 116% / 60% 47% 71% / 59%
4.0x
Cash Flow Netback $/boe $26.41 $23.99 $37.09 $56.22 $53.59 DAPPS Growth 5% 16% 19% 10%
Cash Costs -$3.08 -$14.02 -$2.58 -$11.30 2.0x
+/- 1 Std. Dev. LT Avg NBF 2022e
Cash Flow Margin 95% 80% 95% 81% 0.0x
Cash Costs (Ex. Hedging) $/boe -$2.77 -$2.52 -$2.64 -$3.08 -$2.58 TPZ Peer Avg.
CF Margin (Ex. Hedging) % 91% 91% 94% 95% 95%

Revenue $mln $108 $100 $212 $376 $390
Cash Flow $mln $97 $89 $191 $349 $377
CFPS (diluted) $1.08 $0.98 $1.54 $2.43 $2.60 $500 1.5x
DPS (basic) $0.80 $0.80 $0.85 $1.10 $1.20
$400 1.0x
(Acquisitions) / Dispositions nm -$171 -$919 -$332 $0 0.5x
Total nm -$173 -$922 -$335 -$3 $300
Dividends $mln -$89 -$73 -$109 -$158 -$174 0.0x
DRIP $mln $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $200
(Cdn$ mlns)
FREE CASH FLOW $mln $7 $15 $79 $188 $200
D/CF
-0.5x
$100
-1.0x
Dividend Payout 91% 82% 57% 45% 46% $0
Capex Payout 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% -1.5x
Total Payout 92% 84% 58% 46% 47%
-$100
Total Net Payout 92% 84% 58% 46% 47% -2.0x
Net Debt $mln nm -$238 $234 $375 $175 -$200 -2.5x

D/CF nm -2.7x 1.2x 1.1x 0.5x
Cash Flow Capex Dividend DRIP FCF D/CF
-$300 -3.0x
Credit Facility $mln nm $125 $500 $500 $500 2020 2021 2022 2023
% Drawn nm 0% 55% 88% 48%
Q1 nm $0.26 $0.31 $0.53 $0.71
Q2 nm $0.22 $0.32 $0.66 $0.63 Volume % mmboe % mmboe % mmboe % mmboe
Q3 nm $0.26 $0.39 $0.57 $0.61 PDP nm nm nm nm 69% 16.1 71% 29.8
Q4 nm $0.25 $0.50 $0.67 $0.65 Proved nm nm nm nm 76% 17.6 76% 31.8
Annual $1.08 $0.98 $1.54 $2.43 $2.60 2P nm nm nm nm 100% 23.2 100% 42.0
Q1 nm 10,378 11,743 16,122 19,250 PDP nm nm nm 85%
Q2 nm 9,891 12,265 16,677 19,250 Proved nm nm nm 81%
Q3 nm 9,970 15,119 16,750 19,250 2P nm nm nm 81%
Q4 nm 10,335 17,213 18,429 19,250 RPS (2P) nm nm nm 32%
Annual 10,110 10,144 14,103 17,000 19,250 DARPS (2P) nm nm nm -5%
WTI Crude oil (US$/bbl) $57.00 $39.25 $68.00 $95.00 $80.00 FD&A Ex. FDC (PDP) nm nm $7.89 $50.20
WCS(C$/bbl) $58.10 $35.50 $68.50 $101.75 $85.25 FD&A Ex. FDC (Proven) nm nm $39.99 $48.64
Canadian Par (C$/bbl) $69.05 $45.25 $80.50 $119.75 $100.25 FD&A Ex. FDC (P+P) nm nm $39.63 $39.55
NYMEX gas (US$/mcf) $2.55 $2.15 $3.70 $7.00 $5.00
AECO Basis (US$/mcf) $-1.20 $-0.45 $-0.80 $-2.80 $-1.55 Recycle Ratio Ex. FDC (PDP) nm nm 3.0x 0.7x
AECO gas (C$/mcf) $1.80 $2.25 $3.65 $5.40 $4.50 Recycle Ratio Ex. FDC (Proven) nm nm 0.6x 0.8x
Exchange Rate (US$/C$) $0.75 $0.75 $0.80 $0.78 $0.76 Recycle Ratio Ex. FDC (P+P) nm nm 0.6x 0.9x
2019 values depicted on a pro-forma basis
17
Industry Note
Appendix 1: Clearwater Summary Tear Sheets

Clearwater Summary Tear Sheet
Tamarack Valley Energy Clearwater Vintage Decline Spur Petroleum Clearwater Vintage Decline
40.0 400 35.0 350
2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 Pre-2018 Producing Wells 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 Pre-2018 Producing Wells
35.0 350
30.0 300
30.0 300
25.0 250
Production (mboe/d)
Production (mboe/d)
Producing Wells (#)
Producing Wells (#)

25.0 250
20.0 200
20.0 200
15.0 150
15.0 150
10.0 100
10.0 100
5.0 50
5.0 50
0.0 0 0.0 0
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Mar-22
Jan-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
May-22
Jan-22
Jul-22
<2018 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total <2018 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total
Exit Production (mboe/d) 0.8 1.5 4.1 2.3 12.3 14.0 35.0 Exit Production (mboe/d) 0.9 3.1 4.2 3.9 9.6 7.5 29.2
Calculated Decline (%) 17% 1% 27% 27% 24% 41% Calculated Decline (%) 20% 9% 22% 30% 24% 42%
Contribution (%) 2% 4% 12% 6% 35% 40% Contribution (%) 3% 11% 14% 13% 33% 26%
W.A. Decline (%) 30% W.A. Decline (%) 27%
Headwater Exploration Clearwater Vintage Decline Canadian Natural Resources Clearwater Vintage Decline
14.0 140 12.0 60
12.0 120
10.0 50
10.0 100
Production (mboe/d)
Production (mboe/d)
8.0 40
Producing Wells (#)
Producing Wells (#)

8.0 80
6.0 30
6.0 60
4.0 20
4.0 40
2.0 10
2.0 20
0.0 0 0.0 0
Mar-18
May-18
May-19
May-20
Jan-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jan-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jan-22
Jul-22
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
May-19
May-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jan-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jan-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
Jul-22
<2018 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total <2018 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total
Baytex Energy Clearwater Vintage Decline Woodcote Oil & Gas Clearwater Vintage Decline
10.0 25 3.5 35
3.0 30
8.0 20
2.5 25
Production (mboe/d)
Production (mboe/d)
Producing Wells (#)
Producing Wells (#)

6.0 15
2.0 20
1.5 15
4.0 10
1.0 10
2.0 5
0.5 5
0.0 0 0.0 0
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
May-19
Jan-19
Mar-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
May-20
Jan-20
Mar-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jan-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jan-22
Jul-22
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
<2018 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total <2018 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total
Rubellite Energy Clearwater Vintage Decline Other Operators Clearwater Vintage Decline
3.0 60 2.5 50
2.5 50
2.0 40
Production (mboe/d)
Production (mboe/d)
2.0 40
Producing Wells (#)
Producing Wells (#)
1.5 30
1.5 30
1.0 20
1.0 20
0.5 10
0.5 10
0.0 0 0.0 0
May-18
Jan-18
Mar-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
May-21
Jan-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
May-20
Jan-20
Mar-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
May-22
Jan-22
Mar-22
Jul-22
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
May-19
May-21
Jan-19
Mar-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
May-22
Jan-22
Mar-22
Jul-22
<2018 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total <2018 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total
18
Industry Note
Clearwater Summary Tear Sheet (Continued)

Clearwater Vintage Decline Clearwater Production Profile
120.0 1,200 120.0 25%
Gas Liquids % Gas
100.0 1,000 100.0

20%
Production (mboe/d)
Production (mboe/d)
80.0 800 80.0
Producing Wells (#)

15%
% Gas
60.0 600 60.0
10%
40.0 400 40.0
5%
20.0 200 20.0
0.0 0 0.0 0%
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
<2018 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg.
Contribution (%) 2% 5% 9% 7% 32% 45%
Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Decline) Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Cumulative)
250 70
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average
60
200
50
Production (boe/d)
Production (mboe)
150
40
30
100
20
50
10
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Production Month Production Month
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg. 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg.
IP30 (boe/d) 180 153 195 157 176 191 174 IP30 (mboe) 5.4 4.6 5.9 4.7 5.3 5.7 5.2
∆Y/Y (%) - -15% 27% -19% 12% 9% 1% ∆Y/Y (%) - -15% 27% -19% 12% 9% 1%
IP180 (boe/d) 165 142 180 144 155 166 159 IP180 (mboe) 29.7 25.5 32.4 25.9 27.8 29.8 28.7
∆Y/Y (%) - -14% 27% -20% 8% 7% 0% ∆Y/Y (%) - -14% 27% -20% 8% 7% 0%
IP360 (boe/d) 150 131 165 130 136 143 145 IP360 (mboe) 54.1 47.0 59.3 47.0 49.0 51.4 52.3
∆Y/Y (%) - -13% 26% -21% 4% 5% 2% ∆Y/Y (%) - -13% 26% -21% 4% 5% -1%
1yr. Decline (%) 33% 29% 31% 34% 42% 47% 32%
Clearwater Historical GOR Clearwater Historical Water Cut

800 45%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average
700 40%
35%
600
30%
GOR (scf/bbl)
500
Water Cut (%)
25%
400
20%
300
15%
200
10%
100 5%
0 0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg. 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg.
IP30 (scf/bbl) 309 112 111 355 108 173 156 IP30 (%) 29% 36% 38% 38% 36% 39% 37%
∆Y/Y (%) - -64% 0% 219% -70% 60% -11% ∆Y/Y (%) - 21% 7% 1% -6% 8% 6%
IP180 (scf/bbl) 329 177 172 270 245 252 231 IP180 (%) 19% 21% 20% 18% 21% 20% 20%
∆Y/Y (%) - -46% -3% 57% -9% 3% -5% ∆Y/Y (%) - 9% -5% -11% 16% -1% 1%
IP360 (scf/bbl) 309 268 300 399 403 N/A 355 IP360 (%) 16% 18% 17% 15% 19% N/A 18%
∆Y/Y (%) - -13% 12% 33% 1% N/A 7% ∆Y/Y (%) - 13% -10% -9% 28% N/A 5%
1yr. Incrase (%) 31% 368% 464% 101% 617% N/A 318% 1yr. Change (%) -51% -58% -66% -65% -45% N/A -60%
Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Decline per 1,000 m Lateral Length) Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Cumulative per 1,000 m Lateral Length)
25 7.0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average
6.0
20
5.0
Production (boe/d)
Production (mboe)
15
4.0
3.0
10
2.0
5
1.0
0 0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg. 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg.
IP30 (boe/d) 19.5 16.8 18.3 16.7 16.8 16.6 16.8 IP30 (mboe) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
∆Y/Y (%) - -14% 9% -9% 1% -1% -3% ∆Y/Y (%) - -14% 9% -9% 1% -1% -3%
IP180 (boe/d) 18.1 15.5 16.8 15.3 14.9 14.8 15.5 IP180 (mboe) 3.2 2.8 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8
∆Y/Y (%) - -14% 8% -9% -3% -1% -4% ∆Y/Y (%) - -14% 8% -9% -3% -1% -4%
IP360 (boe/d) 16.5 14.3 15.3 13.8 13.1 13.0 14.2 IP360 (mboe) 5.9 5.1 5.5 5.0 4.7 4.7 5.1
∆Y/Y (%) - -14% 8% -10% -5% -1% -5% ∆Y/Y (%) - -14% 8% -10% -5% -1% -5%
1yr. Decline (%) 31% 30% 32% 34% 41% 42% 30%
19
Industry Note

Clearwater Production by Area Clearwater Well Count by Area
120.0 1,200 1,000
Other Canal Peavine Southern Fairway Nipisi Marten Hills Producing Wells Other Canal Peavine Southern Fairway Nipisi Marten Hills
900
100.0 1,000
800
700
Production (mboe/d)
Producing Well Count (#)

80.0 800
Producing Wells (#)

600
60.0 600 500
400
40.0 400
300
200
20.0 200
100
0.0 0 0
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
MH Nipisi South Peavine Canal Other Total MH Nipisi South Peavine Canal Other Total
Exit Production (mboe/d) 47.8 27.9 12.2 10.9 2.2 2.3 103.2 Exit Well Count (#) 396 231 215 48 27 27 944
Calculated Decline (%) 28% 30% 41% 62% 44% 49% % of Total (%) 42% 24% 23% 5% 3% 3%
Contribution (%) 46% 27% 12% 11% 2% 2%
400 90
Other Canal Peavine Southern Fairway Nipisi Marten Hills Average
350 80
70
300
60
Production (boe/d)
Production (mboe)
250
50
200
40
150
30
100
20
50 10
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
MH Nipisi South Peavine Canal Other Avg. MH Nipisi South Peavine Canal Other Avg.
IP30 (boe/d) 216 165 113 345 150 109 174 IP30 (mboe) 6.5 5.0 3.4 10.4 4.5 3.3 5.2
vs. Avg. (%) 24% -5% -35% 98% -14% -37% vs. Avg. (%) 24% -5% -35% 98% -14% -37%
IP180 (boe/d) 196 150 95 275 128 87 159 IP180 (mboe) 35.4 27.0 17.1 49.4 23.1 15.7 28.7
vs. Avg. (%) 23% -6% -40% 72% -19% -45% vs. Avg. (%) 23% -6% -40% 72% -19% -45%
IP360 (boe/d) 179 135 81 218 109 69 145 IP360 (mboe) 64.4 48.7 29.2 78.6 39.4 25.0 52.3
vs. Avg. (%) 23% -7% -44% 50% -25% -52% vs. Avg. (%) 23% -7% -44% 50% -25% -52%
1yr. Decline (%) 32% 35% 49% 65% 50% 64% 32%

1400 80%
Other Canal Peavine Southern Fairway Nipisi Marten Hills Average Other Canal Peavine Southern Fairway Nipisi Marten Hills Average
1200 70%
60%
1000
GOR (scf/bbl)
50%
Water Cut (%)
800
40%
600
30%
400
20%
200
10%
0 0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
IP30 (scf/bbl) 90 119 660 16 107 405 156 IP30 (%) 24% 47% 43% 35% 70% 53% 37%
vs. Avg. (%) -42% -24% 324% -90% -31% 161% vs. Avg. (%) -34% 28% 16% -4% 90% 45%
IP180 (scf/bbl) 203 244 373 33 467 512 231 IP180 (%) 15% 22% 23% 23% 39% 36% 20%
vs. Avg. (%) -12% 6% 62% -85% 102% 122% vs. Avg. (%) -27% 11% 13% 13% 91% 80%
IP360 (scf/bbl) 343 357 449 93 719 479 355 IP360 (%) 13% 20% 20% 24% 38% 35% 18%
vs. Avg. (%) -3% 0% 26% -74% 102% 35% vs. Avg. (%) -27% 12% 15% 35% 112% 97%
1yr. Incrase (%) 618% 415% 9% 1770% 1482% -12% 318% 1yr. Change (%) -53% -62% -64% -71% -43% -43% -60%
35 8.0
30 7.0
6.0
25
Production (boe/d)
Production (mboe)
5.0
20
4.0
15
3.0
10
2.0
5
1.0
0 0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
IP30 (boe/d) 20.3 15.8 11.4 30.4 21.8 11.6 16.8 IP30 (mboe) 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.5
vs. Avg. (%) 21% -6% -32% 81% 30% -31% vs. Avg. (%) 21% -6% -32% 81% 30% -31%
IP180 (boe/d) 18.5 14.5 10.0 24.6 19.4 9.8 15.5 IP180 (mboe) 3.3 2.6 1.8 4.4 3.5 1.8 2.8
vs. Avg. (%) 19% -6% -36% 58% 25% -37% vs. Avg. (%) 19% -6% -36% 58% 25% -37%
IP360 (boe/d) 16.9 13.2 8.7 19.9 17.1 8.3 14.2 IP360 (mboe) 6.1 4.8 3.1 7.2 6.1 3.0 5.1
vs. Avg. (%) 19% -7% -39% 40% 20% -42% vs. Avg. (%) 19% -7% -39% 40% 20% -42%
1yr. Decline (%) 32% 32% 43% 61% 42% 52% 30%
20
Industry Note

Clearwater Vintage Decline by Number of Legs Clearwater Producing Well Count by Number of Legs
120.0 1,200 1,000
Other 4 Legs 6 Legs 8 Legs
Other 4 Legs 6 Legs 8 Legs Producing Wells 900
100.0 1,000
800
700
Production (mboe/d)
Well Count (#)

80.0 800
Producing Wells (#)

600
60.0 600 500
400
40.0 400
300
200
20.0 200
100
0.0 0 0
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
4 Legs 6 Legs 8 Legs Other Total 4 Legs 6 Legs 8 Legs Other Total
Exit Production (mboe/d) 11.0 29.2 32.3 30.7 103.2 Exit Well Count (#) 98 298 270 278 944
Contribution (%) 11% 28% 31% 30% Contribution (%) 10% 32% 29% 29%
250 70
4 Legs 6 Legs 8 Legs Average 4 Legs 6 Legs 8 Legs Average
60
200
50
Production (boe/d)
Production (mboe)
150
40
30
100
20
50
10
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
4 Legs 6 Legs 8 Legs Avg. 4 Legs 6 Legs 8 Legs Avg.

IP30 (boe/d) 165 162 207 174 IP30 (mboe) 4.9 4.9 6.2 5.2
vs. Avg. (%) -5% -7% 19% vs. Avg. (%) -5% -7% 19%
IP180 (boe/d) 144 147 191 159 IP180 (mboe) 26.0 26.4 34.4 28.7
vs. Avg. (%) -10% -8% 20% vs. Avg. (%) -10% -8% 20%
IP360 (boe/d) 126 133 177 145 IP360 (mboe) 45.5 47.7 63.6 52.3
vs. Avg. (%) -13% -9% 22% vs. Avg. (%) -13% -9% 22%
1yr. Decline (%) 43% 34% 28% 32%

800 50%
4 Legs 6 Legs 8 Legs Average
45%
700
40%
600
35%
GOR (scf/bbl)
500
30%
Water Cut (%)
400 25%
20%
300
15%
200
10%
100
5%
0 0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

IP30 (scf/bbl) 88 211 124 156 IP30 (%) 29% 34% 44% 37%
vs. Avg. (%) -44% 36% -21% vs. Avg. (%) -22% -8% 19%
IP180 (scf/bbl) 166 273 214 231 IP180 (%) 17% 19% 23% 20%
vs. Avg. (%) -28% 18% -7% vs. Avg. (%) -15% -7% 13%
IP360 (scf/bbl) 296 377 362 355 IP360 (%) 15% 17% 20% 18%
vs. Avg. (%) -17% 6% 2% vs. Avg. (%) -14% -5% 11%
1yr. Incrase (%) 625% 183% 497% 318% 1yr. Change (%) -48% -56% -70% -60%
25 7.0
6.0
20
5.0
Production (boe/d)
Production (mboe)
15
4.0
3.0
10
2.0
5
1.0
0 0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

IP30 (boe/d) 21.5 15.9 15.9 16.8 IP30 (mboe) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
vs. Avg. (%) 28% -5% -5% vs. Avg. (%) 28% -5% -5%
IP180 (boe/d) 19.4 14.4 14.8 15.5 IP180 (mboe) 3.5 2.6 2.7 2.8
vs. Avg. (%) 25% -7% -5% vs. Avg. (%) 25% -7% -5%
IP360 (boe/d) 17.5 13.1 13.6 14.2 IP360 (mboe) 6.3 4.7 4.9 5.1
vs. Avg. (%) 23% -8% -5% vs. Avg. (%) 23% -8% -5%
1yr. Decline (%) 36% 34% 29% 30%
21
Industry Note

4 Leg Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Decline) 4 Leg Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Decline per 1,000 m Lateral Length)
700 60
600
50
500
40
Production (boe/d)
Production (boe/d)
400
30
300
20
200
10
100
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
IP30 (boe/d) 176 131 98 616 242 44 165 IP30 (mboe) 24.9 17.4 14.4 53.3 38.5 6.6 21.5
vs. Avg. (%) 6% -21% -41% 273% 47% -73% vs. Avg. (%) 15% -19% -33% 148% 79% -69%
IP180 (boe/d) 164 116 82 510 186 39 144 IP180 (mboe) 23.2 15.6 12.3 42.7 30.3 5.9 19.4
vs. Avg. (%) 14% -20% -43% 254% 29% -73% vs. Avg. (%) 19% -20% -37% 120% 56% -70%
IP360 (boe/d) 151 102 71 422 147 34 126 IP360 (mboe) 21.5 13.9 10.7 34.3 24.3 5.2 17.5
vs. Avg. (%) 20% -19% -44% 234% 16% -73% vs. Avg. (%) 23% -20% -39% 97% 39% -70%
1yr. Decline (%) 28% 42% 48% 57% 66% 43% 43% 1yr. Decline (%) 27% 38% 46% 62% 63% 41% 36%
250 25
200 20
Production (boe/d)
Production (boe/d)
150 15
100 10
50 5
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
IP30 (boe/d) 208 174 118 144 122 129 162 IP30 (mboe) 20.7 16.3 12.1 13.4 12.1 12.9 15.9
vs. Avg. (%) 28% 7% -27% -11% -25% -20% vs. Avg. (%) 30% 3% -24% -16% -24% -19%
IP180 (boe/d) 173 162 101 118 106 116 147 IP180 (mboe) 17.2 15.3 10.5 11.5 10.8 11.5 14.4
vs. Avg. (%) 20% 13% -30% -18% -26% -20% vs. Avg. (%) 19% 6% -27% -20% -25% -20%
IP360 (boe/d) 152 150 88 97 92 103 133 IP360 (mboe) 15.0 14.2 9.1 9.8 9.5 10.1 13.1
vs. Avg. (%) 20% 19% -31% -23% -27% -18% vs. Avg. (%) 15% 9% -31% -25% -27% -22%
350 25
300
20
250
Production (boe/d)
Production (boe/d)
15
200
150
10
100
5
50
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
IP30 (boe/d) 253 169 116 328 98 102 207 IP30 (mboe) 19.6 13.0 9.5 23.0 8.3 8.3 15.9
vs. Avg. (%) 22% -18% -44% 59% -53% -51% vs. Avg. (%) 23% -19% -40% 44% -48% -48%
IP180 (boe/d) 236 154 96 279 90 83 191 IP180 (mboe) 18.3 11.9 8.2 19.6 7.3 7.0 14.8
vs. Avg. (%) 63% 7% -33% 94% -37% -42% vs. Avg. (%) 24% -19% -44% 33% -50% -52%
IP360 (boe/d) 218 140 80 237 83 68 177 IP360 (mboe) 16.9 10.9 7.1 16.6 6.4 5.9 13.6
vs. Avg. (%) 73% 11% -36% 88% -34% -46% vs. Avg. (%) 25% -20% -48% 22% -53% -57%
22
Industry Note
Appendix 2: Marten Hills Clearwater Tear Sheets

Marten Hills Tear Sheet
Marten Hills Clearwater Vintage Decline Marten Hills Clearwater Production Profile
60.0 450 60.0 25%
2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 Pre-2018 Producing Wells Gas Liquids % Gas
50.0 375 50.0

20%
Production (mboe/d)
Production (mboe/d)
40.0 300 40.0
Producing Wells (#)

15%
% Gas
30.0 225 30.0
10%
20.0 150 20.0
5%
10.0 75 10.0
0.0 0 0.0 0%
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
<2018 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg.
Contribution (%) 4% 8% 15% 6% 35% 32%
Marten Hills Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Decline) Marten Hills Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Cumulative)
300 80
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average
70
250
60
200
Production (boe/d)
Production (mboe)
50
150 40
30
100
20
50
10
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg. 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg.
IP30 (boe/d) 204 193 243 203 222 217 216 IP30 (mboe) 6.1 5.8 7.3 6.1 6.7 6.5 6.5
∆Y/Y (%) - -5% 26% -16% 9% -2% 1% ∆Y/Y (%) - -5% 26% -16% 9% -2% 1%
IP180 (boe/d) 189 180 225 172 196 195 196 IP180 (mboe) 34.0 32.4 40.5 30.9 35.4 35.0 35.4
∆Y/Y (%) - -5% 25% -24% 14% -1% 1% ∆Y/Y (%) - -5% 25% -24% 14% -1% 1%
IP360 (boe/d) 173 166 207 150 174 174 179 IP360 (mboe) 62.4 59.9 74.4 53.8 62.5 62.6 64.4
∆Y/Y (%) - -4% 24% -28% 16% 0% 0% ∆Y/Y (%) - -4% 24% -28% 16% 0% 0%
1yr. Decline (%) 30% 28% 30% 45% 41% 38% 32%
Marten Hills Clearwater Historical GOR Marten Hills Clearwater Historical Water Cut
900 35%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average
800
30%
700
25%
600
GOR (scf/bbl)
Water Cut (%)
500 20%
400 15%
300
10%
200
5%
100
0 0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg. 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg.
IP30 (scf/bbl) 342 115 82 90 88 42 90 IP30 (%) 31% 32% 29% 8% 17% 30% 24%
∆Y/Y (%) - -66% -29% 11% -3% -52% -34% ∆Y/Y (%) - 2% -9% -74% 117% 81% -1%
IP180 (scf/bbl) 339 171 172 184 238 180 203 IP180 (%) 22% 20% 16% 9% 11% 17% 15%
∆Y/Y (%) - -49% 0% 7% 29% -24% -12% ∆Y/Y (%) - -8% -20% -45% 21% 65% -4%
IP360 (scf/bbl) 285 272 316 358 418 N/A 343 IP360 (%) 18% 18% 12% 10% 10% N/A 13%
∆Y/Y (%) - -5% 16% 13% 17% N/A 10% ∆Y/Y (%) - -2% -30% -24% 10% N/A -13%
1yr. Incrase (%) 2% 352% 679% 661% 883% N/A 618% 1yr. Change (%) -50% -56% -70% 44% -27% N/A -53%
Marten Hills Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Decline per 1,000 m Lateral Length) Marten Hills Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Cumulative per 1,000 m Lateral Length)
25 7.0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average
6.0
20
5.0
Production (boe/d)
Production (mboe)
15
4.0
3.0
10
2.0
5
1.0
0 0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg. 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg.
IP30 (boe/d) 21.4 20.1 21.4 20.8 20.3 20.0 20.3 IP30 (mboe) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
∆Y/Y (%) - -6% 6% -3% -2% -1% -1% ∆Y/Y (%) - -6% 6% -3% -2% -1% -1%
IP180 (boe/d) 20.0 18.7 19.8 17.5 17.8 17.7 18.5 IP180 (mboe) 3.6 3.4 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3
∆Y/Y (%) - -7% 6% -11% 1% -1% -2% ∆Y/Y (%) - -7% 6% -11% 1% -1% -2%
IP360 (boe/d) 18.5 17.2 18.1 15.3 15.6 15.5 16.9 IP360 (mboe) 6.7 6.2 6.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 6.1
∆Y/Y (%) - -7% 5% -15% 2% 0% -3% ∆Y/Y (%) - -7% 5% -15% 2% 0% -3%
1yr. Decline (%) 27% 29% 31% 44% 43% 42% 32%
23
Industry Note
Marten Hills Tear Sheet (Continued)

Marten Hills Clearwater Vintage Decline by Number of Legs Marten Hills Clearwater Producing Well Count by Number of Legs
60.0 450 450
Other 4 Legs 6 Legs 8 Legs Producing Wells
400 400
50.0
350 350
Production (mboe/d)
Well Count (#)

40.0 300 300
Producing Wells (#)

250 250
30.0
200 200
20.0 150 150
100 100
10.0
50 50
0.0 0 0
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Marten Hills Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Decline) Marten Hills Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Cumulative)
300 90
80
250
70
200 60
Production (boe/d)
Production (mboe)
50
150
40
100 30
20
50
10
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

IP30 (boe/d) 176 208 253 216 IP30 (mboe) 5.3 6.2 7.6 6.5
vs. Avg. (%) -19% -4% 17% vs. Avg. (%) -19% -4% 17%
IP180 (boe/d) 164 173 236 196 IP180 (mboe) 29.5 31.2 42.4 35.4
vs. Avg. (%) -17% -12% 20% vs. Avg. (%) -17% -12% 20%
IP360 (boe/d) 151 152 218 179 IP360 (mboe) 54.5 54.7 78.6 64.4
vs. Avg. (%) -15% -15% 22% vs. Avg. (%) -15% -15% 22%
1yr. Decline (%) 28% 43% 27% 32%
Marten Hills Clearwater Historical GOR Marten Hills Clearwater Historical Water Cut
800 40%
700 35%
600 30%
GOR (scf/bbl)
500 25%
Water Cut (%)
400 20%
300 15%
200 10%
100 5%
0 0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

IP30 (scf/bbl) 47 71 117 90 IP30 (%) 14% 16% 34% 24%
vs. Avg. (%) -48% -21% 30% vs. Avg. (%) -42% -34% 41%
IP180 (scf/bbl) 97 223 215 203 IP180 (%) 14% 12% 17% 15%
vs. Avg. (%) -52% 10% 6% vs. Avg. (%) -2% -19% 15%
IP360 (scf/bbl) 177 370 370 343 IP360 (%) 13% 11% 15% 13%
vs. Avg. (%) -48% 8% 8% vs. Avg. (%) -3% -12% 13%
Marten Hills Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Decline per 1,000 m Lateral Length) Marten Hills Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Cumulative per 1,000 m Lateral Length)
30 9.0
8.0
25
7.0
20 6.0
Production (boe/d)
Production (mboe)
5.0
15
4.0
10 3.0
2.0
5
1.0
0 0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

IP30 (boe/d) 24.9 20.7 19.6 20.3 IP30 (mboe) 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
vs. Avg. (%) 22% 2% -4% vs. Avg. (%) 22% 2% -4%
IP180 (boe/d) 23.2 17.2 18.3 18.5 IP180 (mboe) 4.2 3.1 3.3 3.3
vs. Avg. (%) 25% -7% -1% vs. Avg. (%) 25% -7% -1%
IP360 (boe/d) 21.5 15.0 16.9 16.9 IP360 (mboe) 7.8 5.4 6.1 6.1
vs. Avg. (%) 27% -11% 0% vs. Avg. (%) 27% -11% 0%
1yr. Decline (%) 27% 44% 27% 32%
24
Industry Note
Appendix 3: Nipisi Clearwater Tear Sheets

Nipisi Tear Sheet
Nipisi Clearwater Vintage Decline Nipisi Clearwater Production Profile
30.0 300 30.0 25%
25.0 250 25.0

20%
Production (mboe/d)
Production (mboe/d)
20.0 200 20.0
Producing Wells (#)

15%
% Gas
15.0 150 15.0
10%
10.0 100 10.0
5%
5.0 50 5.0
0.0 0 0.0 0%
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
<2018 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg.
Contribution (%) 0% 3% 7% 10% 37% 43%
Nipisi Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Decline) Nipisi Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Cumulative)
250 70
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average
60
200
50
Production (boe/d)
Production (mboe)
150
40
30
100
20
50
10
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg. 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg.
IP30 (boe/d) 143 106 140 177 174 194 165 IP30 (mboe) 4.3 3.2 4.2 5.3 5.2 5.8 5.0
∆Y/Y (%) - -26% 32% 26% -2% 11% 6% ∆Y/Y (%) - -26% 32% 26% -2% 11% 6%
IP180 (boe/d) 125 92 130 164 160 176 150 IP180 (mboe) 22.5 16.5 23.4 29.5 28.8 31.7 27.0
∆Y/Y (%) - -27% 42% 26% -2% 10% 7% ∆Y/Y (%) - -27% 42% 26% -2% 10% 7%
IP360 (boe/d) 109 80 120 151 146 159 135 IP360 (mboe) 39.3 28.8 43.3 54.4 52.7 57.3 48.7
∆Y/Y (%) - -27% 51% 26% -3% 9% 8% ∆Y/Y (%) - -27% 51% 26% -3% 9% 8%
1yr. Decline (%) 44% 44% 28% 29% 31% 34% 35%
Nipisi Clearwater Historical GOR Nipisi Clearwater Historical Water Cut

800 70%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average
700
60%
600
50%
GOR (scf/bbl)
500
Water Cut (%)
40%
400
30%
300
20%
200
100 10%
0 0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg. 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg.
IP30 (scf/bbl) 172 37 87 80 131 149 119 IP30 (%) 42% 41% 58% 40% 50% 44% 47%
∆Y/Y (%) - -79% 136% -8% 64% 13% -3% ∆Y/Y (%) - -3% 41% -31% 26% -12% 1%
IP180 (scf/bbl) 236 113 93 214 250 356 244 IP180 (%) 13% 21% 26% 16% 27% 18% 22%
∆Y/Y (%) - -52% -18% 130% 17% 42% 9% ∆Y/Y (%) - 57% 24% -39% 69% -33% 6%
IP360 (scf/bbl) 314 179 173 359 403 N/A 357 IP360 (%) 9% 18% 21% 12% 25% N/A 20%
∆Y/Y (%) - -43% -3% 107% 12% N/A 6% ∆Y/Y (%) - 95% 18% -42% 100% N/A 28%
1yr. Incrase (%) 215% 818% 409% 821% 427% N/A 415% 1yr. Change (%) -80% -56% -73% -75% -47% N/A -62%
Nipisi Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Decline per 1,000 m Lateral Length) Nipisi Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Cumulative per 1,000 m Lateral Length)
25 6.0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average
5.0
20
4.0
Production (boe/d)
Production (mboe)
15
3.0
10
2.0
5
1.0
0 0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg. 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg.
IP30 (boe/d) 20.1 13.2 13.6 17.7 16.1 17.2 15.8 IP30 (mboe) 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
∆Y/Y (%) - -34% 3% 30% -9% 7% -3% ∆Y/Y (%) - -34% 3% 30% -9% 7% -3%
IP180 (boe/d) 17.6 11.6 12.6 16.5 14.7 15.6 14.5 IP180 (mboe) 3.2 2.1 2.3 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.6
∆Y/Y (%) - -34% 8% 31% -11% 6% -2% ∆Y/Y (%) - -34% 8% 31% -11% 6% -2%
IP360 (boe/d) 15.5 10.1 11.5 15.3 13.4 14.1 13.2 IP360 (mboe) 5.6 3.6 4.1 5.5 4.8 5.1 4.8
∆Y/Y (%) - -35% 14% 33% -12% 5% -2% ∆Y/Y (%) - -35% 14% 33% -12% 5% -2%
1yr. Decline (%) 43% 43% 30% 28% 33% 35% 32%
25
Industry Note
Nipisi Tear Sheet (Continued)

Nipisi Clearwater Vintage Decline by Number of Legs Nipisi Clearwater Producing Well Count by Number of Legs
30.0 250 250
25.0
200 200
Production (mboe/d)
Well Count (#)

20.0
Producing Wells (#)

150 150
15.0
100 100
10.0
50 50
5.0
0.0 0 0
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Nipisi Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Decline) Nipisi Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Cumulative)
200 60
180
50
160
140
40
Production (boe/d)
Production (mboe)
120
100 30
80
20
60
40
10
20
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

IP30 (boe/d) 131 174 169 165 IP30 (mboe) 3.9 5.2 5.1 5.0
vs. Avg. (%) -21% 5% 2% vs. Avg. (%) -21% 5% 2%
IP180 (boe/d) 116 162 154 150 IP180 (mboe) 20.9 29.2 27.7 27.0
vs. Avg. (%) -23% 8% 3% vs. Avg. (%) -23% 8% 3%
IP360 (boe/d) 102 150 140 135 IP360 (mboe) 36.7 54.1 50.3 48.7
vs. Avg. (%) -25% 11% 3% vs. Avg. (%) -25% 11% 3%
1yr. Decline (%) 42% 27% 33% 35%
Nipisi Clearwater Historical GOR Nipisi Clearwater Historical Water Cut

900 70%
800
60%
700
50%
600
GOR (scf/bbl)
Water Cut (%)
500 40%
400 30%
300
20%
200
10%
100
0 0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

IP30 (scf/bbl) 139 97 157 119 IP30 (%) 34% 45% 65% 47%
vs. Avg. (%) 17% -18% 32% vs. Avg. (%) -28% -5% 37%
IP180 (scf/bbl) 250 226 284 244 IP180 (%) 16% 21% 32% 22%
vs. Avg. (%) 3% -7% 17% vs. Avg. (%) -30% -8% 42%
IP360 (scf/bbl) 437 327 409 357 IP360 (%) 13% 18% 29% 20%
vs. Avg. (%) 23% -8% 15% vs. Avg. (%) -34% -7% 45%
Nipisi Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Decline per 1,000 m Lateral Length) Nipisi Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Cumulative per 1,000 m Lateral Length)
20 6.0
18
5.0
16
14
4.0
Production (boe/d)
Production (mboe)
12
10 3.0
8
2.0
6
4
1.0
2
0 0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

IP30 (boe/d) 17.4 16.3 13.0 15.8 IP30 (mboe) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5
vs. Avg. (%) 10% 3% -18% vs. Avg. (%) 10% 3% -18%
IP180 (boe/d) 15.6 15.3 11.9 14.5 IP180 (mboe) 2.8 2.7 2.1 2.6
vs. Avg. (%) 7% 5% -18% vs. Avg. (%) 7% 5% -18%
IP360 (boe/d) 13.9 14.2 10.9 13.2 IP360 (mboe) 5.0 5.1 3.9 4.8
vs. Avg. (%) 5% 7% -18% vs. Avg. (%) 5% 7% -18%
1yr. Decline (%) 38% 26% 32% 32%
26
Industry Note
Appendix 4: Southern Fairway Clearwater Tear Sheets

Southern Fairway Tear Sheet
Southern Fairway Clearwater Vintage Decline Southern Fairway Clearwater Production Profile
14.0 350 14.0 25%
12.0 300 12.0

20%
10.0 250 10.0

Production (mboe/d)
Production (mboe/d)
Producing Wells (#)
15%
8.0 200 8.0
% Gas
6.0 150 6.0
10%
4.0 100 4.0
5%
2.0 50 2.0
0.0 0 0.0 0%
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
<2018 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg.
Contribution (%) 1% 2% 4% 6% 33% 54%
Southern Fairway Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Decline) Southern Fairway Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Cumulative)
160 40
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average
140 35
120 30
Production (boe/d)
Production (mboe)
100 25
80 20
60 15
40 10
20 5
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg. 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg.
IP30 (boe/d) 121 144 133 124 110 110 113 IP30 (mboe) 3.6 4.3 4.0 3.7 3.3 3.3 3.4
∆Y/Y (%) - 19% -8% -7% -11% 0% -2% ∆Y/Y (%) - 19% -8% -7% -11% 0% -2%
IP180 (boe/d) 101 102 113 109 89 93 95 IP180 (mboe) 18.2 18.4 20.4 19.7 16.0 16.8 17.1
∆Y/Y (%) - 1% 10% -3% -19% 5% -2% ∆Y/Y (%) - 1% 10% -3% -19% 5% -2%
IP360 (boe/d) 85 82 96 96 74 79 81 IP360 (mboe) 30.5 29.5 34.4 34.4 26.6 28.4 29.2
∆Y/Y (%) - -3% 17% 0% -23% 7% -1% ∆Y/Y (%) - -3% 17% 0% -23% 7% -1%
1yr. Decline (%) 54% 64% 52% 44% 55% 51% 49%
Southern Fairway Clearwater Historical GOR Southern Fairway Clearwater Historical Water Cut
1000 60%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average
900
50%
800
700
40%
GOR (scf/bbl)
600
Water Cut (%)
500 30%
400
20%
300
200
10%
100
0 0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg. 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg.
IP30 (scf/bbl) 136 103 430 2,489 152 993 660 IP30 (%) 21% 39% 30% 53% 46% 44% 43%
∆Y/Y (%) - -25% 319% 479% -94% 553% 49% ∆Y/Y (%) - 85% -22% 75% -14% -3% 16%
IP180 (scf/bbl) 323 322 300 665 306 431 373 IP180 (%) 14% 17% 16% 20% 26% 24% 23%
∆Y/Y (%) - 0% -7% 121% -54% 41% 6% ∆Y/Y (%) - 27% -6% 23% 31% -8% 12%
IP360 (scf/bbl) 472 543 406 557 416 N/A 449 IP360 (%) 12% 16% 14% 15% 24% N/A 20%
∆Y/Y (%) - 15% -25% 37% -25% N/A -3% ∆Y/Y (%) - 27% -9% 7% 58% N/A 18%
1yr. Incrase (%) 482% 839% 99% -78% 390% N/A 9% 1yr. Change (%) -41% -66% -53% -77% -53% N/A -64%
Southern Fairway Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Decline per 1,000 m Lateral Length) Southern Fairway Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Cumulative per 1,000 m Lateral Length)
18 4.0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average
16 3.5
14
3.0
12
Production (boe/d)
Production (mboe)
2.5
10
2.0
8
1.5
6
1.0
4
2 0.5
0 0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg. 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg.
IP30 (boe/d) 13.4 15.6 14.9 13.5 11.2 9.2 11.4 IP30 (mboe) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
∆Y/Y (%) - 16% -4% -9% -17% -18% -7% ∆Y/Y (%) - 16% -4% -9% -17% -18% -7%
IP180 (boe/d) 11.5 10.9 12.3 11.9 8.9 7.6 10.0 IP180 (mboe) 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.4 1.8
∆Y/Y (%) - -5% 13% -3% -25% -15% -8% ∆Y/Y (%) - -5% 13% -3% -25% -15% -8%
IP360 (boe/d) 9.8 8.6 10.2 10.4 7.4 6.3 8.7 IP360 (mboe) 3.5 3.1 3.7 3.7 2.7 2.3 3.1
∆Y/Y (%) - -12% 18% 1% -29% -15% -9% ∆Y/Y (%) - -12% 18% 1% -29% -15% -9%
1yr. Decline (%) 49% 66% 56% 44% 55% 56% 43%
27
Industry Note
Southern Fairway Tear Sheet (Continued)

Southern Fairway Clearwater Vintage Decline by Number of Legs Southern Fairway Clearwater Producing Well Count by Number of Legs
14.0 350 250
12.0 300
200
10.0 250
Production (mboe/d)
Well Count (#)

Producing Wells (#)
150
8.0 200
6.0 150
100
4.0 100
50
2.0 50
0.0 0 0
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Southern Fairway Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Decline) Southern Fairway Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Cumulative)
140 35
120 30
100 25
Production (boe/d)
Production (mboe)
80 20
60 15
40 10
20 5
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

IP30 (boe/d) 98 118 116 113 IP30 (mboe) 2.9 3.5 3.5 3.4
vs. Avg. (%) -13% 4% 3% vs. Avg. (%) -13% 4% 3%
IP180 (boe/d) 82 101 96 95 IP180 (mboe) 14.8 18.3 17.3 17.1
vs. Avg. (%) -13% 7% 1% vs. Avg. (%) -13% 7% 1%
IP360 (boe/d) 71 88 80 81 IP360 (mboe) 25.5 31.5 28.9 29.2
vs. Avg. (%) -13% 8% -1% vs. Avg. (%) -13% 8% -1%
1yr. Decline (%) 48% 47% 54% 49%
Southern Fairway Clearwater Historical GOR Southern Fairway Clearwater Historical Water Cut
1000 60%
900
50%
800
700
40%
GOR (scf/bbl)
600
Water Cut (%)
500 30%
400
20%
300
200
10%
100
0 0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

IP30 (scf/bbl) 467 895 258 660 IP30 (%) 33% 40% 51% 43%
vs. Avg. (%) -29% 36% -61% vs. Avg. (%) -23% -7% 20%
IP180 (scf/bbl) 338 411 306 373 IP180 (%) 10% 21% 29% 23%
vs. Avg. (%) -9% 10% -18% vs. Avg. (%) -54% -6% 26%
IP360 (scf/bbl) 418 455 493 449 IP360 (%) 9% 20% 25% 20%
vs. Avg. (%) -7% 1% 10% vs. Avg. (%) -58% -4% 24%
1yr. Incrase (%) 47% -16% 173% 9% 1yr. Change (%) -72% -59% -68% -64%
Southern Fairway Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Decline per 1,000 m Lateral Length) Southern Fairway Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Cumulative per 1,000 m Lateral Length)
16 4.5
14 4.0
3.5
12
3.0
Production (boe/d)
Production (mboe)
10
2.5
8
2.0
6
1.5
4
1.0
2 0.5
0 0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

IP30 (boe/d) 14.4 12.1 9.5 11.4 IP30 (mboe) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
vs. Avg. (%) 27% 6% -17% vs. Avg. (%) 27% 6% -17%
IP180 (boe/d) 12.3 10.5 8.2 10.0 IP180 (mboe) 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.8
vs. Avg. (%) 23% 5% -18% vs. Avg. (%) 23% 5% -18%
IP360 (boe/d) 10.7 9.1 7.1 8.7 IP360 (mboe) 3.8 3.3 2.5 3.1
vs. Avg. (%) 22% 4% -19% vs. Avg. (%) 22% 4% -19%
1yr. Decline (%) 46% 46% 47% 43%
28
Industry Note
Appendix 5: Peavine Clearwater Tear Sheets

Peavine Tear Sheet
Peavine Clearwater Vintage Decline Peavine Clearwater Production Profile
14.0 70 14.0 25%
12.0 60 12.0
20%
10.0 50 10.0
Production (mboe/d)
Production (mboe/d)
Producing Wells (#)
15%
8.0 40 8.0
% Gas
6.0 30 6.0
10%
4.0 20 4.0
5%
2.0 10 2.0
0.0 0 0.0 0%
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
<2018 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg.
Calculated Decline (%) 0% 0% 0% 0% 41% 66% ∆Y/Y (%) - N/A N/A N/A 724% N/A
Contribution (%) 0% 0% 0% 0% 17% 83%
Peavine Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Decline) Peavine Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Cumulative)
450 100
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average
400 90
80
350
70
300
Production (boe/d)
Production (mboe)
60
250
50
200
40
150
30
100
20
50 10
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg. 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg.
IP30 (boe/d) N/A N/A N/A N/A 337 397 345 IP30 (mboe) N/A N/A N/A N/A 10.1 11.9 10.4
∆Y/Y (%) - N/A N/A N/A N/A 18% N/A ∆Y/Y (%) - N/A N/A N/A N/A 18% N/A
1yr. Decline (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A 66% 66% 65%
Peavine Clearwater Historical GOR Peavine Clearwater Historical Water Cut

250 70%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average
60%
200
50%
GOR (scf/bbl)
150
Water Cut (%)
40%
30%
100
20%
50
10%
0 0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg. 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg.
IP30 (scf/bbl) N/A N/A N/A N/A 55 8 16 IP30 (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A 58% 25% 35%
∆Y/Y (%) - N/A N/A N/A N/A -85% N/A ∆Y/Y (%) - N/A N/A N/A N/A -56% N/A
IP180 (scf/bbl) N/A N/A N/A N/A 56 23 33 IP180 (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A 32% 18% 23%
∆Y/Y (%) - N/A N/A N/A N/A -59% N/A ∆Y/Y (%) - N/A N/A N/A N/A -45% N/A
IP360 (scf/bbl) N/A N/A N/A N/A 104 N/A 93 IP360 (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A 28% N/A 24%
∆Y/Y (%) - N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ∆Y/Y (%) - N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1yr. Incrase (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A 430% N/A 1770% 1yr. Change (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A -59% N/A -71%
Peavine Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Decline per 1,000 m Lateral Length) Peavine Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Cumulative per 1,000 m Lateral Length)
35 8.0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average
30 7.0
6.0
25
Production (boe/d)
Production (mboe)
5.0
20
4.0
15
3.0
10
2.0
5
1.0
0 0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg. 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg.
IP30 (boe/d) N/A N/A N/A N/A 29.5 32.6 30.4 IP30 (mboe) N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.9 1.0 0.9
1yr. Decline (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A 57% 65% 61%
29
Industry Note
Peavine Tear Sheet (Continued)

Peavine Clearwater Vintage Decline by Number of Legs Peavine Clearwater Producing Well Count by Number of Legs
14.0 60 60
12.0
50 50
10.0
Production (mboe/d)
Well Count (#)

40 40
Producing Wells (#)

8.0
30 30
6.0
20 20
4.0
10 10
2.0
0.0 0 0
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Peavine Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Decline) Peavine Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Cumulative)
700 160
600 140
120
500
Production (boe/d)
Production (mboe)
100
400
80
300
60
200
40
100
20
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

IP30 (boe/d) 616 144 328 345 IP30 (mboe) 18.5 4.3 9.8 10.4
vs. Avg. (%) 79% -58% -5% vs. Avg. (%) 79% -58% -5%
IP180 (boe/d) 510 118 279 275 IP180 (mboe) 91.9 21.3 50.2 49.4
vs. Avg. (%) 86% -57% 2% vs. Avg. (%) 86% -57% 2%
IP360 (boe/d) 422 97 237 218 IP360 (mboe) 151.8 35.0 85.3 78.6
vs. Avg. (%) 93% -55% 9% vs. Avg. (%) 93% -55% 9%
1yr. Decline (%) 57% 58% 51% 65%
Peavine Clearwater Historical GOR Peavine Clearwater Historical Water Cut

250 60%
50%
200
40%
GOR (scf/bbl)
150
Water Cut (%)
30%
100
20%
50
10%
0 0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

IP30 (scf/bbl) 9 7 26 16 IP30 (%) 17% 24% 43% 35%
vs. Avg. (%) -43% -57% 67% vs. Avg. (%) -52% -33% 23%
IP180 (scf/bbl) 17 32 45 33 IP180 (%) 19% 19% 26% 23%
vs. Avg. (%) -48% -4% 34% vs. Avg. (%) -16% -16% 15%
IP360 (scf/bbl) N/A 25 107 93 IP360 (%) N/A 22% 28% 24%
vs. Avg. (%) N/A -73% 16% vs. Avg. (%) N/A -9% 16%
1yr. Incrase (%) N/A 565% 1034% 1770% 1yr. Change (%) N/A 39% -93% -71%
Peavine Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Decline per 1,000 m Lateral Length) Peavine Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Cumulative per 1,000 m Lateral Length)
60 14.0
12.0
50
10.0
40
Production (boe/d)
Production (mboe)
8.0
30
6.0
20
4.0
10
2.0
0 0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

IP30 (boe/d) 53.3 13.4 23.0 30.4 IP30 (mboe) 1.6 0.4 0.7 0.9
vs. Avg. (%) 75% -56% -24% vs. Avg. (%) 75% -56% -24%
IP180 (boe/d) 42.7 11.5 19.6 24.6 IP180 (mboe) 7.7 2.1 3.5 4.4
vs. Avg. (%) 74% -53% -20% vs. Avg. (%) 74% -53% -20%
IP360 (boe/d) 34.3 9.8 16.6 19.9 IP360 (mboe) 12.4 3.5 6.0 7.2
vs. Avg. (%) 73% -51% -17% vs. Avg. (%) 73% -51% -17%
1yr. Decline (%) 62% 50% 51% 61%
30
Industry Note
Appendix 6: Canal Clearwater Tear Sheets

Canal Tear Sheet
Canal Clearwater Vintage Decline Canal Clearwater Production Profile
2.5 30 2.5 25%
25
2.0 2.0 20%
Production (mboe/d)
Production (mboe/d)
20
Producing Wells (#)

1.5 1.5 15%
% Gas
15
1.0 1.0 10%

10
0.5 0.5 5%
5
0.0 0 0.0 0%
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
<2018 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg.
Contribution (%) 0% 2% 3% 17% 20% 57%
Canal Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Decline) Canal Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Cumulative)
350 60
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average
300
50
250
40
Production (boe/d)
Production (mboe)
200
30
150
20
100
10
50
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg. 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg.
IP30 (boe/d) N/A 205 316 207 156 113 150 IP30 (mboe) N/A 6.2 9.5 6.2 4.7 3.4 4.5
∆Y/Y (%) - N/A 54% -34% -25% -28% -14% ∆Y/Y (%) - N/A 54% -34% -25% -28% -14%
∆Y/Y (%) - N/A 19% -19% -22% -25% -13% ∆Y/Y (%) - N/A 19% -19% -22% -25% -13%
∆Y/Y (%) - N/A 3% -9% -21% -22% -13% ∆Y/Y (%) - N/A 3% -9% -21% -22% -13%
1yr. Decline (%) N/A 52% 78% 60% 57% 49% 50%
Canal Clearwater Historical GOR Canal Clearwater Historical Water Cut

1600 90%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average
1400 80%
70%
1200
60%
GOR (scf/bbl)
1000
Water Cut (%)
50%
800
40%
600
30%
400
20%
200 10%
0 0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg. 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg.
IP30 (scf/bbl) N/A 56 56 138 133 90 107 IP30 (%) N/A 34% 82% 83% 39% 81% 70%
∆Y/Y (%) - N/A 0% 146% -4% -32% 13% ∆Y/Y (%) - N/A 139% 0% -53% 107% 24%
IP180 (scf/bbl) N/A 173 318 452 496 574 467 IP180 (%) N/A 27% 44% 38% 30% 43% 39%
∆Y/Y (%) - N/A 84% 42% 10% 16% 35% ∆Y/Y (%) - N/A 65% -13% -21% 41% 13%
IP360 (scf/bbl) N/A 302 692 706 799 N/A 719 IP360 (%) N/A 25% 49% 38% 29% N/A 38%
∆Y/Y (%) - N/A 129% 2% 13% N/A N/A ∆Y/Y (%) - N/A 94% -22% -23% N/A N/A
1yr. Incrase (%) N/A 2000% 6896% 958% 984% N/A 1482% 1yr. Change (%) N/A -10% -27% -49% -22% N/A -43%
Canal Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Decline per 1,000 m Lateral Length) Canal Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Cumulative per 1,000 m Lateral Length)
50 10.0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average
45 9.0
40 8.0
35 7.0
Production (boe/d)
Production (mboe)
30 6.0
25 5.0
20 4.0
15 3.0
10 2.0
5 1.0
0 0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg. 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg.
IP30 (boe/d) N/A 35.2 43.0 34.8 21.1 10.8 21.8 IP30 (mboe) N/A 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.7
∆Y/Y (%) - N/A 22% -19% -39% -49% -26% ∆Y/Y (%) - N/A 22% -19% -39% -49% -26%
∆Y/Y (%) - N/A -7% 2% -35% -48% -25% ∆Y/Y (%) - N/A -7% 2% -35% -48% -25%
∆Y/Y (%) - N/A -20% 16% -32% -47% -24% ∆Y/Y (%) - N/A -20% 16% -32% -47% -24%
1yr. Decline (%) N/A 54% 80% 60% 49% 45% 42%
31
Industry Note
Canal Tear Sheet (Continued)

Canal Clearwater Vintage Decline by Number of Legs Canal Clearwater Producing Well Count by Number of Legs
2.5 30 30.0
25 25.0
2.0
Production (mboe/d)
Well Count (#)

20 20.0
Producing Wells (#)

1.5
15 15.0
1.0
10 10.0
0.5
5 5.0
0.0 0 0.0
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Canal Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Decline) Canal Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Cumulative)
300 60
250 50
200 40
Production (boe/d)
Production (mboe)
150 30
100 20
50 10
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

IP30 (boe/d) 242 122 98 150 IP30 (mboe) 7.3 3.7 2.9 4.5
vs. Avg. (%) 62% -19% -35% vs. Avg. (%) 62% -19% -35%
IP180 (boe/d) 186 106 90 128 IP180 (mboe) 33.5 19.2 16.3 23.1
vs. Avg. (%) 45% -17% -30% vs. Avg. (%) 45% -17% -30%
IP360 (boe/d) 147 92 83 109 IP360 (mboe) 52.9 33.2 29.8 39.4
vs. Avg. (%) 34% -16% -24% vs. Avg. (%) 34% -16% -24%
1yr. Decline (%) 66% 46% 31% 50%
Canal Clearwater Historical GOR Canal Clearwater Historical Water Cut

1800 100%
1600 90%
1400 80%
70%
1200
GOR (scf/bbl)
60%
Water Cut (%)
1000
50%
800
40%
600
30%
400
20%
200 10%
0 0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

IP30 (scf/bbl) 92 76 91 107 IP30 (%) 58% 78% 93% 70%
vs. Avg. (%) -14% -29% -15% vs. Avg. (%) -18% 11% 32%
IP180 (scf/bbl) 484 618 229 467 IP180 (%) 31% 42% 60% 39%
vs. Avg. (%) 4% 32% -51% vs. Avg. (%) -21% 9% 54%
IP360 (scf/bbl) 813 N/A N/A 719 IP360 (%) 32% N/A N/A 38%
vs. Avg. (%) 13% N/A N/A vs. Avg. (%) -14% N/A N/A
1yr. Incrase (%) 2001% N/A N/A 1482% 1yr. Change (%) -33% N/A N/A -43%
Canal Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Decline per 1,000 m Lateral Length) Canal Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Cumulative per 1,000 m Lateral Length)
45 10.0
40 9.0
8.0
35
7.0
30
Production (boe/d)
Production (mboe)
6.0
25
5.0
20
4.0
15
3.0
10
2.0
5 1.0
0 0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

IP30 (boe/d) 38.5 12.1 8.3 21.8 IP30 (mboe) 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.7
vs. Avg. (%) 77% -45% -62% vs. Avg. (%) 77% -45% -62%
IP180 (boe/d) 30.3 10.8 7.3 19.4 IP180 (mboe) 5.5 1.9 1.3 3.5
vs. Avg. (%) 57% -45% -62% vs. Avg. (%) 57% -45% -62%
IP360 (boe/d) 24.3 9.5 6.4 17.1 IP360 (mboe) 8.7 3.4 2.3 6.1
vs. Avg. (%) 42% -45% -63% vs. Avg. (%) 42% -45% -63%
1yr. Decline (%) 63% 42% 44% 42%
32
Industry Note
Appendix 7: Other Area Clearwater Tear Sheets

Other Tear Sheet
Other Clearwater Vintage Decline Other Clearwater Production Profile
2.5 50 2.5 40%
Gas Liquids % Gas
35%
2.0 40 2.0
30%
Production (mboe/d)
Production (mboe/d)
Producing Wells (#)
25%
1.5 30 1.5
% Gas
20%
1.0 20 1.0
15%
10%
0.5 10 0.5
5%
0.0 0 0.0 0%
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
<2018 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg.
Contribution (%) 0% 0% 5% 4% 9% 82%
Other Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Decline) Other Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Cumulative)
200 50
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average
180 45
160 40
140 35
Production (boe/d)
Production (mboe)
120 30
100 25
80 20
60 15
40 10
20 5
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg. 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg.
∆Y/Y (%) - N/A 23% -36% 59% 128% 30% ∆Y/Y (%) - N/A 23% -36% 59% 128% 30%
∆Y/Y (%) - N/A 27% -34% 53% 125% 30% ∆Y/Y (%) - N/A 27% -34% 53% 125% 30%
∆Y/Y (%) - N/A 31% -31% 47% 121% 31% ∆Y/Y (%) - N/A 31% -31% 47% 121% 31%
1yr. Decline (%) N/A 56% 49% 40% 49% 52% 64%
Other Clearwater Historical GOR Other Clearwater Historical Water Cut

2500 100%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average
90%
2000 80%
70%
GOR (scf/bbl)
1500 60%
Water Cut (%)
50%
1000 40%
30%
500 20%
10%
0 0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg. 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg.
IP30 (scf/bbl) N/A 1,200 316 635 545 353 405 IP30 (%) N/A 54% 49% 83% 57% 43% 53%
∆Y/Y (%) - N/A -74% 101% -14% -35% -26% ∆Y/Y (%) - N/A -9% 70% -31% -25% -6%
IP180 (scf/bbl) N/A 631 218 408 621 598 512 IP180 (%) N/A 54% 38% 45% 39% 25% 36%
∆Y/Y (%) - N/A -66% 87% 52% -4% -1% ∆Y/Y (%) - N/A -29% 17% -12% -36% -17%
IP360 (scf/bbl) N/A 430 229 502 1,005 N/A 479 IP360 (%) N/A 41% 36% 37% 44% N/A 35%
∆Y/Y (%) - N/A -47% 119% 100% N/A N/A ∆Y/Y (%) - N/A -11% 3% 19% N/A N/A
1yr. Incrase (%) N/A -62% -26% -22% 267% N/A -12% 1yr. Change (%) N/A -91% -15% -69% -3% N/A -43%
Other Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Decline per 1,000 m Lateral Length) Other Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Cumulative per 1,000 m Lateral Length)
20 5.0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average
18 4.5
16 4.0
14 3.5
Production (boe/d)
Production (mboe)
12 3.0
10 2.5
8 2.0
6 1.5
4 1.0
2 0.5
0 0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg. 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5yr. Avg.
∆Y/Y (%) - N/A 48% -34% 120% 25% 28% ∆Y/Y (%) - N/A 48% -34% 120% 25% 28%
∆Y/Y (%) - N/A 54% -31% 97% 32% 29% ∆Y/Y (%) - N/A 54% -31% 97% 32% 29%
∆Y/Y (%) - N/A 58% -29% 79% 38% 29% ∆Y/Y (%) - N/A 58% -29% 79% 38% 29%
1yr. Decline (%) N/A 56% 49% 40% 62% 53% 52%
33
Industry Note
Other Tear Sheet (Continued)

Other Clearwater Vintage Decline by Number of Legs Other Clearwater Producing Well Count by Number of Legs
2.5 40 40
35 35
2.0
30 30
Production (mboe/d)
Well Count (#)

Producing Wells (#)
25 25
1.5
20 20
1.0
15 15
10 10
0.5
5 5
0.0 0 0
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Other Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Decline) Other Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Cumulative)
140 40
120 35
30
100
Production (boe/d)
Production (mboe)
25
80
20
60
15
40
10
20
5
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

IP30 (boe/d) 44 129 102 109 IP30 (mboe) 1.3 3.9 3.1 3.3
vs. Avg. (%) -60% 18% -6% vs. Avg. (%) -60% 18% -6%
IP180 (boe/d) 39 116 83 87 IP180 (mboe) 6.9 20.9 15.0 15.7
vs. Avg. (%) -56% 33% -4% vs. Avg. (%) -56% 33% -4%
IP360 (boe/d) 34 103 68 69 IP360 (mboe) 12.1 37.2 24.6 25.0
vs. Avg. (%) -51% 49% -2% vs. Avg. (%) -51% 49% -2%
1yr. Decline (%) 43% 38% 58% 64%
Other Clearwater Historical GOR Other Clearwater Historical Water Cut

1200 80%
70%
1000
60%
800
GOR (scf/bbl)
50%
Water Cut (%)
600 40%
30%
400
20%
200
10%
0 0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

IP30 (scf/bbl) 228 425 481 405 IP30 (%) 67% 42% 68% 53%
vs. Avg. (%) -44% 5% 19% vs. Avg. (%) 25% -21% 26%
IP180 (scf/bbl) 445 646 281 512 IP180 (%) 48% 32% 34% 36%
vs. Avg. (%) -13% 26% -45% vs. Avg. (%) 32% -13% -7%
IP360 (scf/bbl) 601 645 263 479 IP360 (%) 45% 28% 30% 35%
vs. Avg. (%) 26% 35% -45% vs. Avg. (%) 29% -20% -15%
1yr. Incrase (%) 235% -47% -81% -12% 1yr. Change (%) -40% -80% -83% -43%
Other Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Decline per 1,000 m Lateral Length) Other Clearwater Historical Type Curves (Cumulative per 1,000 m Lateral Length)
14 4.0
12 3.5
3.0
10
Production (boe/d)
Production (mboe)
2.5
8
2.0
6
1.5
4
1.0
2
0.5
0 0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

IP30 (boe/d) 6.6 12.9 8.3 11.6 IP30 (mboe) 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3
vs. Avg. (%) -43% 11% -28% vs. Avg. (%) -43% 11% -28%
IP180 (boe/d) 5.9 11.5 7.0 9.8 IP180 (mboe) 1.1 2.1 1.3 1.8
vs. Avg. (%) -40% 17% -28% vs. Avg. (%) -40% 17% -28%
IP360 (boe/d) 5.2 10.1 5.9 8.3 IP360 (mboe) 1.9 3.7 2.1 3.0
vs. Avg. (%) -37% 23% -28% vs. Avg. (%) -37% 23% -28%
1yr. Decline (%) 41% 41% 52% 52%
34
Industry Note
Appendix 8: Non-Normalized Top Wells

Top 10 Wells Brought on in Each Area (Peak Cal-Day)
1,400 Peavine
Marten Hills
1,200 Nipisi

Southern Fairway
Peak Cal-Day (boe/d)
1,000
Other

800
Other (West MH) Other (West MH)
Other (West MH)
Other (Canal)
600 Other (Canal) Other (West MH)

Other (Canal) Other (West MH) Other (West MH)
400
Other (West MH)

200
16-29 (Spur)
12-31 (HWX)
13-34 (Spur)
16-04 (Spur)
09-36 (Spur)
09-01 (Spur)
08-08 (Spur)
04-03 (Spur)
03-35 (Spur)
03-11 (Spur)
09-18 (Spur)
12-34 (HWX)
16-35 (HWX)
16-26 (HWX)
13-34 (HWX)
09-35 (HWX)
11-05 (HWX)
15-07 (HWX)
13-07 (HWX)
14-05 (HWX)
13-07 (HWX)
14-07 (HWX)
14-05 (HWX)
13-18 (TVE)
01-30 (BTE)
01-30 (BTE)
03-27 (BTE)
08-30 (BTE)
11-31 (BTE)
03-27 (BTE)
06-31 (BTE)
13-27 (BTE)
06-27 (BTE)
14-31 (BTE)
01-11 (TVE)
01-14 (TVE)
01-11 (TVE)
13-19 (TVE)
05-30 (TVE)
14-19 (TVE)
03-03 (TVE)
04-30 (TVE)
13-21 (TVE)
16-25 (TVE)
04-13 (TVE)
01-29 (TVE)
01-31 (TVE)
08-24 (TVE)
16-24 (TVE)
05-17 (CNQ)
Top 15 Clearwater Wells Brought On-Stream (Peak Cal-Day)

Well Data Well Production Data Lateral Production Data (/1000m) Cross Sectional Well View
No. of Total Lat. Avg. Lat. Average Prod Cum. Average Prod Total Peak 30 Day Average Average Prod Cum. Average Prod Total Peak 30 Day
Current Operator First Prod UWI Area Laterals Length Length (IP90) Prod (IP90) (IP365) Cum. Prod Prod Water Cut (IP90) Prod (IP90) (IP365) Cum. Prod Prod
# m m Boe/d Boe Boe/d Boe Boe/d % Boe/d Boe Boe Boe/d
Baytex Apr-22 100/08-30-078-15W5/00 Peavine 4 11,663 2,916 662 60,225 N/A 109,504 1,040 0 57 5,164 N/A 9,389 89
Baytex Aug-21 102/11-31-078-15W5/02 Peavine 8 15,140 1,892 579 53,295 473 143,656 921 1 38 3,520 31 9,489 61
Baytex Dec-21 100/06-31-078-15W5/00 Peavine 8 16,444 2,056 553 49,794 N/A 135,636 864 8 34 3,028 N/A 8,248 53
Baytex Jul-21 100/13-27-078-16W5/00 Peavine 9 15,254 1,695 606 55,778 539 200,738 843 4 40 3,657 35 13,160 55
Baytex Dec-21 100/14-31-078-15W5/00 Peavine 8 13,863 1,733 717 42,314 N/A 125,570 721 8 52 3,052 N/A 9,058 52
Headwater Mar-21 100/16-26-074-25W4/02 Marten Hills 8 13,027 1,628 411 37,847 439 182,741 681 1 32 2,905 34 14,028 52
Headwater Nov-19 102/12-31-074-24W4/06 Marten Hills 8 15,427 1,928 595 54,104 413 301,886 652 2 39 3,507 27 19,569 42
Top Well Avg 6 13,240 2,219 541 47,900 463 183,284 851 2 41 3,665 33 13,685 66
All Clearwater Avg 7 10,387 1,588 168 15,103 145 60,536 174 18 16 1,463 14 6,299 17
35
Industry Note
Disclosures
PRICE, RATING AND TARGET HISTORY: I = Initiation, OP = Outperform, SP = Sector Perform, UP = Underperform, UR = Under Review, R = Restricted; T = Tender (Source: Factset, NBF)
Baytex Energy Corp. Rating History as of 09/30/2022

OP:$2.50 SP:$0.50 SP:$0.75 SP:$0.90 SP:$0.75 SP:$1.00 SP:$1.50 SP:$1.75 SP:$2.00 SP:$3.00 SP:$4.50 SP:$5.00
03/04/2020 03/18/2020 06/24/2020 07/30/2020 11/02/2020 01/05/2021 02/18/2021 02/24/2021 04/29/2021 06/16/2021 09/27/2021 11/05/2021
10
Price (CAD)
4
0
Oct 19 Jan 20 Apr 20 Jul 20 Oct 20 Jan 21 Apr 21 Jul 21 Oct 21 Jan 22 Apr 22 Jul 22
SP:$6.50 OP:$8.75 OP:$9.50 OP:$10.50 OP:$10.00 OP:$9.00
02/02/2022 04/13/2022 04/28/2022 06/15/2022 07/17/2022 09/29/2022
Closing Price
Headwater Exploration Inc. Rating History as of 09/30/2022

I:OP:$3.00 OP:$3.50 OP:$4.00 OP:$4.50 OP:$5.50 OP:$6.25 OP:$7.00 OP:$7.75 OP:$9.00 OP:$10.50 OP:$9.50
11/30/2020 01/05/2021 01/27/2021 02/18/2021 05/12/2021 06/16/2021 09/27/2021 01/05/2022 02/01/2022 02/02/2022 09/29/2022
10
Price (CAD)
4
0
Closing Price
Topaz Energy Corp. Rating History as of 09/30/2022

I:OP:$18.00 OP:$17.00 NA OP:$17.00 OP:$18.00 NA OP:$18.00 NA OP:$18.00 R:NM OP:$18.00 OP:$20.00
11/13/2020 01/05/2021 02/02/2021 02/08/2021 02/18/2021 02/23/2021 03/05/2021 04/21/2021 05/03/2021 05/18/2021 06/08/2021 07/08/2021
26
24
22
20
18
Price (CAD)
16
14
12
R:NM OP:$24.00 OP:$25.00 OP:$27.50 OP:$32.00 OP:$30.00 R:NM OP:$30.00
10/05/2021 10/26/2021 02/02/2022 04/13/2022 06/15/2022 07/17/2022 09/12/2022 09/13/2022
Closing Price
36
Industry Note
Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. Rating History as of 09/30/2022

OP:$3.50 OP:$3.00 OP:$2.00 OP:$1.25 OP:$1.50 OP:$2.00 OP:$2.25 OP:$3.00 R:NM OP:$3.50 R:NM OP:$4.00
11/06/2019 03/05/2020 03/18/2020 05/13/2020 06/24/2020 12/14/2020 01/05/2021 02/18/2021 03/05/2021 03/25/2021 04/12/2021 05/02/2021
7
6
5
4
3
Price (CAD)
2
1
0
Jan 20 Apr 20 Jul 20 Oct 20 Jan 21 Apr 21 Jul 21 Oct 21 Jan 22 Apr 22 Jul 22 Oct 22
OP:$4.50 OP:$5.00 OP:$5.50 OP:$7.00 OP:$8.00 OP:$8.50 OP:$8.00 R:NM OP:$9.00 OP:$8.00
06/16/2021 09/27/2021 12/15/2021 02/02/2022 04/13/2022 04/21/2022 07/17/2022 09/12/2022 09/27/2022 09/29/2022
Closing Price
RISKS:
BTE
Commodity Prices: Fluctuations in global and local commodity prices, in addition to foreign exchange rates, can have material, adverse impacts on operations, financial condition and reserves
value. A decline in commodity prices presents the greatest single direct risk to a company’s revenue, cash flow and earnings.
Operational/Regulatory: Oil and natural gas development involves a high degree of risk, which is managed through a combination of experience, knowledge and careful evaluation. There is no
assurance that expenditures made on exploration and development will result in new discoveries or commercial quantities of oil and gas. As well, existing production and processing activities can be
impacted by unforeseeable events that can negatively impact production and cash flow. Additionally, controls and regulations may be imposed and amended from all levels of government, presenting
immediate material impacts to companies in some cases.
Non-Operated Assets: The company is not the operator of its drilling locations in the Eagle Ford, and therefore, not able to control the timing of development, associated costs or the rate of
production on the subject properties.
HWX
Major Shareholder Risk: Additionally, major shareholders that may hold a substantial proportion of the company’s outstanding shares can also present a risk to liquidity, cost of capital and
capitalization of the company. In HWX's case, CVE is a 26% (31% fully diluted) shareholder, and while its interests are aligned, could present an overhang to the stock through its own strategic
interests (orientation of the company or need to crystalize its interests).
Clearwater Risks: While the project holds substantially positive attributes, as with all elements of the exploration and production business, this play holds inherent risk, which we primarily highlight
through WCS differentials, sulphur content, infrastructure support, solution gas drive, land access and structure & geology (in-depth understanding of the aforementioned can be found within our
initiation report).
Operational Risk: Oil and natural gas exploration involves a high degree of risk, which is managed through a combination of experience, knowledge and careful evaluation. There is no assurance
that expenditures made on exploration will result in new discoveries or commercial quantities of oil and gas. As well, existing production and processing activities can be impacted by unforeseeable
events that can negatively impact production and cash flow levels. HWX has a meaningful orientation towards exploration investment, which in addition to ongoing validation of EOR response, will
comprise the key sources of risk to our outlook.
37
Industry Note
TVE
Commodity Prices: Fluctuations in global and local commodity prices, in addition to foreign exchange rates, can have material, adverse impacts on operations, financial condition and reserves
value. A decline in commodity prices presents the greatest single direct risk to a company’s revenue, cash flow and earnings.
Operational/Regulatory: Oil and natural gas development involves a high degree of risk, which is managed through a combination of experience, knowledge and careful evaluation. There is no
assurance that expenditures made on exploration and development will result in new discoveries or commercial quantities of oil and gas. As well, existing production and processing activities can be
impacted by unforeseeable events that can negatively impact production and cash flow. Additionally, controls and regulations may be imposed and amended from all levels of government, presenting
immediate material impacts to companies in some cases.
Surface Conditions: Oil and gas industry operations are affected by road bans imposed from time to time during the winter break-up and thaw period in the spring. Road bans are also imposed due
to snow, mud and rock slides and periods of high water or wildfires which can restrict access to well sites and production facilities.
TPZ
Execution of the Strategy: The value of its assets and strategy will be predicated on its ability to execute continued growth, principally targeting diversification (jurisdiction, counterparty, commodity)
and quality (counterparty and take-or-pay). Deal flow may not be readily accessible in a timely fashion and could cause a drag on sentiment and value.
Concentration Risk: As it sits, TOU is the major underlying counterparty and will predicate the majority of its embedded growth strategy, but could in specific situations prove an impediment to its
outlook (as growth, optionality and transactions will largely be dictated by TOU; i.e., take-or-pays and activity distribution).
Tourmaline Share Overhang: Given the significance of TOU’s holdings and the competing opportunities to expand its interest (future dropdowns) relative to its ultimate goal to reduce its interest,
there could be material blocks of stock available at various intervals of time, which may or may not be affiliated with an accretive transaction, subject to the needs of the parent company, and could
present overhang to the stock and risk to its cost of capital.
ADDITIONAL COMPANY RELATED DISCLOSURES

Baytex Energy Corp. 2, 3, 5, 6, 7
Crescent Point Energy Corp. 2, 3, 5, 6, 7
Enerplus Corporation 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9
Headwater Exploration Inc.
Lucero Energy Corp. 2, 4, 6, 7
Surge Energy Inc. 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
Topaz Energy Corp. 2, 3, 4, 5, 7
Vermilion Energy Inc. 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10
Whitecap Resources Inc. 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9
Yangarra Resources Ltd. 2, 3, 5, 7
LEGEND FOR COMPANY RELATED DISCLOSURES:
2 National Bank Financial Inc. has acted as an underwriter with respect to this issuer within the past 12 months.
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5 National Bank Financial Inc. or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from this issuer within the past 12 months.
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9 As of the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report (or the end of the second most recent month if the publication date is less than 10 calendar days
after the end of the most recent month), National Bank Financial Inc. or an affiliate beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of this issuer.
10 National Bank Financial Inc. makes a market in the securities of this issuer, at the time of this report publication.
11 A partner, director, officer or research analyst involved in the preparation of this report has, during the preceding 12 months provided services to this issuer for remuneration other than normal
course investment advisory or trade execution services.
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15 A redacted draft version of this report has been shown to the issuer for fact checking purposes and changes may have been made to the report before publication.
38
Industry Note
RATING DISTRIBUTION
Outperform Sector Perform Underperform
Coverage Universe Ratings Distribution 66% 32% 0%
Investment Banking Distribution 70% 63% 66%
DISCLOSURES
Ratings And What They Mean: PRIMARY STOCK RATING: NBF has a three-tiered rating system that is relative to the coverage universe of the particular analyst. Here is a brief description of
each: Outperform (OP) – The stock is expected to outperform the analyst’s coverage universe over the next 12 months; Sector Perform (SP) – The stock is projected to perform in line with the sector
over the next 12 months; Underperform (UP) – The stock is expected to underperform the sector over the next 12 months. SECONDARY STOCK RATING: Under Review (UR) − Our analyst has
withdrawn the rating because of insufficient information and is awaiting more information and/or clarification; Tender (T) − Our analyst is recommending that investors tender to a specific offering for
the company’s stock; Restricted (R) − Because of ongoing investment banking transactions or because of other circumstances, NBF policy and/or laws or regulations preclude our analyst from rating
a company’s stock. INDUSTRY RATING: NBF has an Industry Weighting system that reflects the view of our Economics & Strategy Group, using its sector rotation strategy. The three-tiered system
rates industries as Overweight, Market Weight and Underweight, depending on the sector’s projected performance against broader market averages over the next 12 months. RISK RATING: As of
June 30, 2020, National Bank Financial discontinued its Below Average, Average and Above Average risk ratings. We continue to use the Speculative risk rating which reflects higher financial and/or
operational risk.
GENERAL: This Report was prepared by National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF), a Canadian investment dealer, a dealer member of IIROC and an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of National Bank of
Canada. National Bank of Canada is a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete and may be subject to change without notice.
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RESEARCH ANALYSTS: The Research Analyst(s) who prepared these reports certify that their respective report accurately reflects his or her personal opinion and that no part of his/her
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39
Industry Note
NBF makes no representation as to the proper characterization of the investments for legal, regulatory or tax purposes, or as to the ability of a particular investor to invest or transact in the
investments under applicable legal restrictions.
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40
Industry Note
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NBCFM Research | Industry Note

INDUSTRY RATING Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels

○ On-going deployment of waterflood; selectively suggested across the fairway with

○ Complementary & evolving infrastructure picture; where significant infrastructure in-

○ Opportunity for M&A; On the back of the TVE/Deltastream transaction, consolidation

Exhibit 1: Rig Efficiency Changes vs. Production Growth by Play

Bakken (US) Appalachia

60% Eagle Ford

Exhibit 2: Clearwater and Other Liquids Peer Comparables

Market Div. FCF

o Direct Quotes – As evidence of the economic potential and value opportunity;

o “you can pay down debt by drilling wells”,

o “break-even <$40/bbl WTI shows its resilience”, and

Exhibit 3: WCSB Project Comparison; Compounding Return Scenarios

Clearwater (Canal); RoC (CAGR): 50%

Exhibit 4: Clearwater Vintage Decline

100.0 1,000 100.0

80.0 800 80.0

60.0 600 60.0

Source: NBF, Company Reports, geoSCOUT

o Complementary & evolving infrastructure picture; where significant infrastructure in-place

o Opportunity for M&A; On the back of the TVE/Deltastream transaction, consolidation

Exhibit 5: Clearwater Operator Map & Significant Delineation Wells

Woodcote Clearwater Wells

Source: NBF, Company Reports, geoSCOUT

Source: NBF, Company Reports, geoSCOUT

Exhibit 8: BTE Historic Consensus EV/DACF Multiple

Share Price ($/sh)

Source: NBF, Bloomberg

Exhibit 9: BTE Clearwater Vintage Decline

2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 Pre-2018 Producing Wells

Producing Wells (#)

<2018 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total

Exhibit 10: HWX Historic EV/DACF Multiple

Share Price ($/sh)

+/- 1 St. Dev. (EV/DACF) EV/DACF Share Price

Source: NBF, Bloomberg

Exhibit 11: HWX Clearwater Vintage Decline

2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 Pre-2018 Producing Wells

Producing Wells (#)

<2018 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total

c) evolving infrastructure picture in support of augmented realizations & netbacks.

Exhibit 12: Spur Clearwater Vintage Decline

2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 Pre-2018 Producing Wells

Producing Wells (#)

<2018 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total

Exhibit 13: TVE Historic EV/DACF Multiple

Share Price ($/sh)

Source: NBF, Bloomberg

Exhibit 14: TVE Clearwater Vintage Decline

2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 Pre-2018 Producing Wells

Producing Wells (#)

<2018 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total

Exhibit 15: TPZ Historic EV/DACF Multiple

Share Price ($/sh)

+/- 1 St. Dev. (EV/EBITDA) EV/EBITDA Share Price

Source: NBF, Bloomberg

Exhibit 16: Clearwater Regional Operating Profile

Exhibit 17: Clearwater Play Comparison

Source: NBF, Company Reports, geoSCOUT

Cross-Sectional View of "Triple Stacked Waterflood"

Source: NBF, Company Reports, geoSCOUT

Exhibit 19: Nipisi; TVE 13-19 Waterflood (“Two Step Waterflood”)