Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Charles I. Jones
Stanford University, Graduate School of Business
9.5 Filling in the Details 258 11.4 Using the IS Curve 293
The Basic IS Curve 293
Summary 258 The Effect of a Change in the Interest Rate 294
Key Concepts 259 An Aggregate Demand Shock 295
Review Questions 259 A Shock to Potential Output 297
Exercises 260 Other Experiments 298
Worked Exercise 262
11.5 Microfoundations of the IS Curve 298
Consumption 298
Multiplier Effects 301
Investment 302
The Great Recession:
10 A First Look 263
Government Purchases 303
Net Exports 309
10.1 Introduction 264 11.6 Conclusion 309
10.2 Recent Shocks to the
Macroeconomy 265 Summary 310
Key Concepts 310
Housing Prices 265
Review Questions 311
The Global Saving Glut 266
Exercises 311
Subprime Lending and the Rise in
Interest Rates 267 Worked Exercises 314
The Financial Turmoil of 2007–2009 268
Oil Prices 271 Monetary Policy and the
10.3 Macroeconomic Outcomes 272
12 Phillips Curve 317
A Comparison to Previous Recessions 272 12.1 Introduction 318
Inflation 275
12.2 The MP Curve: Monetary Policy
The Rest of the World 277
and Interest Rates 319
10.4 Some Fundamentals of Financial From Nominal to Real Interest Rates 321
Economics 278 The IS-MP Diagram 322
Balance Sheets 279 Example: The End of a Housing Bubble 323
Leverage 280
12.3 The Phillips Curve 326
Bank Runs and Liquidity Crises 281
Price Shocks and the Phillips Curve 329
Financial Wrap-Up 282
Cost-Push and Demand-Pull Inflation 331
10.5 Going Forward 282
12.4 Using the Short-Run Model 332
The Volcker Disinflation 333
Summary 283
The Great Inflation of the 1970s 335
Key Concepts 283
The Short-Run Model in a Nutshell 337
Review Questions 284
Exercises 284 12.5 Microfoundations: Understanding
Sticky Inflation 338
The Classical Dichotomy in the Short Run 338
12.6 Microfoundations: How Central Banks
11 The IS Curve 286 Control Nominal Interest Rates 341
Changing the Interest Rate 343
11.1 Introduction 287 Why it instead of Mt? 343
11.2 Setting Up the Economy 288 12.7 Inside the Federal Reserve 346
Consumption and Friends 289 Conventional Monetary Policy 346
The Investment Equation 289 Open-Market Operations: How the Fed
11.3 Deriving the IS Curve 291 Controls the Money Supply 347
Summary 554
Key Concepts 555 Glossary 602
Review Questions 555 Index 617
T
he macroeconomic events of the last twelve European countries over this same period, one
years are truly breathtaking—a once-in-a-life- of the fundamental problems facing the global
time (we hope) occurrence. While the basics economy;
of how economists understand the macroeconomy • A section in Chapter 7 on “Economic Growth
remain solid, the global financial crisis and the and Income Inequality” that discusses the
Great Recession took us into waters that, if not un- Distributional National Accounts approach of
charted, at least had not been visited in more than Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, and Gabriel
half a century. The recovery of the U.S., European, Zucman, showing one of their fascinating
and world economies from these shocks has been graphs of economic growth by income
remarkably subdued. And, perhaps most troubling percentile for 1946–1980 and for 1980–2014;
of all, the productivity growth that underlies long- • A worked example of a TFP shock in the AS/
run economic performance has been surprisingly AD framework in Chapter 13, which helps to
slow for more than a decade. connect the long-run and short-run models and
It is a fascinating time to study macroeconom- illustrates how it is possible for the economy
ics, and I look forward to sharing facts about the to grow rapidly in the short-run without any
macroeconomy with you and to discussing the Nobel- inflationary pressures;
caliber ideas that help us understand them. • A section in Chapter 14 on “How Large is the
This new edition continues the tradition estab- Output Gap” showing that the decline in the
lished in previous versions: providing up-to-date, output gap since 2007 has occurred in large
modern analysis of both current events and classic part because of a slowdown in potential GDP
issues in macroeconomics. rather than because of a rapid recovery of the
Key new additions in the fifth edition include economy;
• A case study in Chapter 6, “On the Possibility • A case study in Chapter 15 on “HANK
of Progress,” discussing the 2018 Nobel Prize Models” highlighting recent research on
to William Nordhaus and Paul Romer, which heterogeneous agent New Keynesian models
highlights a stunning decline in the real that incorporates inequality into a frontier
price of industrial commodities during the business cycle framework; and
20th century despite the enormous increase • Updates to data, exercises, and cases. Exercises
in demand, and the implications this has for in every chapter ask students to obtain and
growth in a world of finite resources; analyze up-to-date data, typically from the
• A case study in Chapter 6 on “Is Economic Federal Reserve’s FRED database.
Growth Slowing Down,” which highlights This fifth edition also incorporates many new
the new productivity slowdown that started case studies and exercises, extensive updates to
around 2003, as well as a parallel case study tables and figures to reflect the most current data,
at the end of Chapter 20 that notes the large and improvements on nearly every page in the
declines in total factor productivity in several text.
xiii
Two Chapters on the Great Recession Familiar Yet Updated Short-Run Model
The global financial crisis and the Great Recession The modern version of the short-run AS/AD
that followed are obviously the most important model is the crowning achievement of the short-
macroeconomic events in decades. While these run section. By modern, I mean several things.
events are discussed throughout in sections de- First and foremost, the AS/AD graph is drawn
voted to the short run, two chapters explicitly with inflation on the vertical axis rather than the
focus on recent events. Chapter 10 (The Great price level — perfect for teaching students about
Recession: A First Look) immediately follows the the threat of deflation that has reared its head fol-
first introductory chapter on the short run, expos- lowing the Great Recession, the Volcker disinfla-
ing students to the facts of the last several years tion, and the Great Inflation of the 1970s. All the
and to critical concepts like leverage, balance short-run analysis, including explicit dynamics,
sheets, and securitization. Chapter 14 (The Great can be performed in this single graph.
Recession and the Short-Run Model), the last Another innovation in getting to the AS/AD
chapter of the short-run section, provides a de- framework is a focus on interest rates and the ab-
tailed application of the short-run model to recent sence of an LM curve. Chapter 12 explains how
events, explaining in the process the unconven- the central bank sets the interest rate. A primer in
tional aspects of monetary and fiscal policy that Chapter 12 helps students to bridge the gap between
featured prominently in the government’s response the old IS-LM model and the new IS-MP model,
to the crisis. which is rapidly displacing the IS-LM framework
as a guide to the short run. Chapter 13 introduces
Rich Treatment of Economic Growth a simple version of John Taylor’s monetary policy
Economic growth is the first major topic ex- rule to get the AD curve.
plored in the book. After an overview chapter A final innovation in the short-run model is that
that describes the facts and some tools, Chapter 4 it features an open economy from the start: busi-
presents a (static) model based on a Cobb-Douglas ness cycles in the rest of the world are one source
production function. Students learn what a model of shocks to the home economy. To keep things
is with this simple structure and see it applied to simple, however, the initial short-run model does
understanding the 50-fold differences in the per not include exchange rates.
in the profession. In addition, it makes sense from Chapter 8 concludes the long-run portion of the
a pedagogical standpoint to put the long run first. book by considering inflation. The quantity theory
This way students understand what it is that the of money provides a long-run theory of inflation,
economy fluctuates around when they get to the which, according to Milton Friedman, occurs be-
short-run chapters. cause of “too much money chasing too few goods.”
A brief overview of each part follows.
Part 3: The Short Run
Part 1: Preliminaries Part 3 is devoted to the branch of macroeconomics
We begin with an overview of macroeconomics: that students are probably most familiar with: the
what kind of questions macroeconomics addresses study of booms, recessions, and the rise and fall of
and how it goes about its business. A second inflation in the short run. The five chapters in this
chapter discusses the data of macroeconomics part form a tight unit that develops the short-run
in more detail, with a focus on national income model and applies it to current events.
accounting. Chapter 9 provides an overview of the macro-
economy in the short run, summarizing the key
Part 2: The Long Run facts and providing an introduction to the short-
The second part of the book (Chapters 3 through run model that explains these facts. Chapter 10
8) considers the macroeconomy in the long run. provides a “first look” at the financial crisis
Chapter 3 presents an overview of the facts and and the Great Recession, carefully laying out the
tools economists use to study long-run macro- facts of how the crisis evolved and introducing the
economics, with special attention to economic important concepts of “leverage” and “balance
growth. Chapter 4 introduces the Cobb-Douglas sheets.”
production function as a way to understand the The next three chapters then develop the short-
enormous differences in standards of living seen run model. Chapter 11 introduces the IS curve, a
across countries. The interplay between theory and key building block of the short-run model. The
data that is central to macroeconomics makes a IS curve reveals that a fundamental determinant
starring appearance in this chapter. of output in the short run is the real interest rate.
Chapter 5 considers the Solow model of eco- Chapter 12 shows how the central bank in an
nomic growth, one of the workhorse models of economy can move the interest rate to keep the
macroeconomics. Students study the extent to economy close to full employment. The chapter
which the Solow model can help them understand also provides the link between the real economy
(a) why some countries are rich while others are and inflation, called the Phillips curve.
poor, and (b) why people in the advanced coun- Chapter 13 looks at the short-run model in
tries of the world are so much richer today than an aggregate supply/aggregate demand (AS/AD)
they were a hundred years ago. Surprisingly, they framework. This framework allows the complete
will see that the model does not do a good job of dynamics of the economy in the short run to be
explaining long-run economic growth. studied in a single graph. Using this framework,
For this explanation, Chapter 6 turns to the Romer the chapter emphasizes the key roles played by
model, which emphasizes the role played by the dis- expectations, credibility, and time consistency in
covery of new ideas. Thinking about the economics modern macroeconomic policymaking.
of ideas may lead to profound changes in the way Chapter 14 uses the short-run model to help stu-
students understand many areas of economics. dents understand the financial crisis and the Great
Chapter 7 studies the most important market Recession and discusses the macroeconomic pros-
in modern economies: the labor market. Students pects going forward. Chapter 15 presents the DSGE
learn about the determination of the unemploy- models of macroeconomic fluctuations to take stu-
ment rate in the long run and discover that they dents closer to the frontier of advanced macroeco-
are already, in some sense, millionaires. nomics, as discussed earlier in the preface.
Part 4: Applications and Microfoundations • Graphs and tables: The main point of each
Part 4 includes five chapters of applications and figure is summarized in an accompanying
microfoundations. While it may be unapparent to marginal text box. Tables are used to
students new to macroeconomics, the organiza- summarize the key equations of a model.
tion of these chapters follows the “national income • Guide to notation: The inside back cover
identity,” a concept discussed early in the book. contains a list of symbols, their meaning, and
These chapters include a number of important top- the chapter in which they first appear.
ics. Chapter 16 studies how individuals make their • Case studies: Case studies highlight items of
lifetime consumption plans. Chapter 17 consid- interest in each chapter.
ers the pricing of financial assets, such as stocks • Chapter summaries: The main points of each
and houses, in the context of a broader chapter chapter are presented in list form for easy
on investment. reference and review.
Chapter 18 studies the role played by the gov- • Key concepts: Important economic concepts
ernment in the macroeconomy, including the role are set in boldface type where they first appear,
of budget deficits and the government’s budget and listed at the end of each chapter for review.
constraint. The chapter also considers a key prob- • Review questions: Review questions allow
lem that governments around the world will face students to test their understanding of what
in coming decades: how to finance the enormous they have learned.
increases in health spending that have occurred for • Exercises: Carefully chosen exercises
the last fifty years and that seem likely to continue. reinforce the material from the chapter and
Both the long-run and the short-run parts of the are intended to be used for homework
book place the study of macroeconomics in an in- assignments. These exercises include many
ternational context. The short-run model includes different kinds of problems. Some require
open economy forces from the very beginning, and graphical solutions while others use
the final two applications of the book go even far- numbers. Some ask to look for economic
ther in this direction. data online and interpret it in a particular
Chapter 19 focuses on international trade. Why way. Others ask to write a position paper for
do countries trade? Are trade deficits good or bad? a presidential candidate or to pretend to be
How have globalization and outsourcing affected advising the chair of the Federal Reserve.
the macroeconomy? Chapter 20 studies interna- • Worked exercises: From the exercises, one
tional finance, including the determination of the or two are selected and worked out in detail.
exchange rate and the Euro-area financial crisis. These exercises are indicated by an asterisk
Parting Thoughts *
( ) in the margin. Students will find these
answers most helpful if they consult them
Chapter 21 concludes our study of macroeconom- only after having tried to work through each
ics. The chapter summarizes the important lessons exercise on their own.
learned in the book, and we offer a brief guide • Glossary: An extensive glossary at the end
to the key questions that remain less than well of the book defines terms and provides page
understood. numbers where more information can be
found.
Learning Aids Country Snapshots
• Overview: The opening page of each chapter www.stanford.edu/~chadj/snapshots.html
provides an overview of the main points that To accompany the book, I have put together a
will be covered. resource containing data from more than 200
• Boxes around key equations: Key equations countries. Each page of the file snapshots.pdf cor-
are boxed to highlight their importance. responds to a country and provides graphs of that
This book could not have been written without the tremendous support, encour-
agement, and assistance that I have received from many people. I am especially
grateful to my colleagues in the economics profession for many insights, com-
ments, and suggestions for improving the manuscript.
xix
xxiii
Tu pedindo, e eu negando,
Que cousa mais preciosa,
Que val mais do que desejas,
E a ti nada te consola.
ROMANCE
O cruzado pagaria,
Já que fui tão desgraçado,
Que boli co’ a escaravelha,
E toquei sôbre o buraco.
Agora si eu cá tornar,
Trarei pelles de veado
Para dar-te umas chinelas
Duraveis, que é mais barato.
ROMANCE
ROMANCE
ROMANCE
ROMANCE
Marianna se agastára,
Que tudo escuta e attende,
Por isso diz o adagio:
Manso, que ouvem as paredes.
Sabendo d’este ciume
Foram as Guapas contentes,
Que inda que mulheres feias,
São feias, porém mulheres.
Ignacia se socegára,
Que é moça mansa e alegre,
E com dous mimos se põe,
Sendo Ignacia, uma clemente.
ROMANCE