Professional Documents
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Copyright 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
Copyright 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
Copyright 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
Copyright 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
Copyright 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
Appendix I 681
Table 1 Cumulative Binomial Probabilities 682
Table 2 Cumulative Poisson Probabilities 688
Table 3 Areas under the Normal Curve 690
Table 4 Critical Values of t 692
Table 5 Critical Values of Chi-Square 694
Table 6 Percentage Points of the F Distribution 696
Table 7 Critical Values of T for the Wilcoxon Rank
Sum Test, n1 # n2 704
Table 8 Critical Values of T for the Wilcoxon Signed-Rank
Test, n 5 5(1)50 706
Table 9 Critical Values of Spearman’s Rank Correlation Coefficient
for a One-Tailed Test 707
Table 10 Random Numbers 708
Table 11 Percentage Points of the Studentized Range, q.05(k, df ) 710
Index 745
Copyright 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
Every time you pick up a newspaper or a magazine, watch TV, or scroll through F acebook,
you encounter statistics. Every time you fill out a questionnaire, register at an online
website, or pass your grocery rewards card through an electronic scanner, your personal
information becomes part of a database containing your personal statistical information.
You can’t avoid it! In this digital age, data collection and analysis are part of our day-to-day
activities. If you want to be an educated consumer and citizen, you need to understand how
statistics are used and misused in our daily lives.
Exercises
As with all previous editions, the variety and number of real applications in the exercise
sets is a major strength of this edition. We have revised the exercise sets to provide new and
interesting real-world situations and real data sets, many of which are drawn from current
periodicals and journals. The fifteenth edition contains over 1900 exercises, many of which
are new to this edition. Exercises are graduated in level of difficulty; some, involving only
xv
Copyright 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
basic techniques, can be solved by almost all students, while others, involving practical
applications and interpretation of results, will challenge students to use more sophisticated
statistical reasoning and understanding. Exercises have been rearranged to provide a more
even distribution of exercises within each chapter and a new numbering system has been
introduced, so that numbering begins again with each new section.
Copyright 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
Relative Frequency
Example 9.7
4/25
1. Since the data involve two variables and a third labeling variable, enter the data into
the first three columns of an Excel spreadsheet, using the labels in the table. Select Data
➤ Data Analysis ➤ Descriptive Statistics, and click OK. Highlight or type the Input 2/25
range (the data in the second and third columns) into the Descriptive Statistics Dialog
box (Figure 2.19(a)). Type an Output location, make sure the boxes for “Labels in First 0
Row” and “Summary Statistics” are both checked, and click OK. The summary statistics 8.5 14.5 20.5 26.5 32.5
Scores
(Figure 2.19(b)) will appear in the selected location in your spreadsheet.
Figure 2.19 (a) Sometimes it is easy to confuse the significance(b) level with the p-value (or observed
Using Tchebysheff’s Theorem and the Empirical Rule
significance level). They are both probabilities calculated as areas in the tails of the sampling
distribution of the test statistic. However, the significance level is preset by the experi-
Tchebysheff’s Theorem can be proven mathematically. It applies to any set of
menter before collecting the data. The p-value is linked directly to the data and actually
measurements—sample or population, large or small, mound-shaped or skewe
describes how likely or unlikely the sample results are, assuming that H 0 is true. The smaller
Tchebysheff’s Theorem gives a lower bound to the fraction of measuremen
the p-value, the more unlikely it is that H 0 is true!
interval x 6 ks. At least 1 2 (1/k 2 ) of the measurements will fall into this interv
probably more!
? Need to Know… The Empirical Rule is a “rule of thumb” that can be used only when the dat
tend to be roughly mound-shaped (the data tend to pile up near the center of th
Rejection Regions, p-Values, and Conclusions distribution).
The significance level, a , lets you set the risk that you are willing to take of makingTchebysheff’s Theorem will always work, but it is a very conservative esti-
an incorrect decision in a test of hypothesis. mate of the fraction of measurements falling in a particular interval. If the data
approximately mound-shaped, the Empirical Rule will give you a more accura
• To set a rejection region, choose a critical value of z so that the area in the
mate of the fraction of measurements falling within 1, 2, or 3 standard deviatio
tail(s) of the z distribution is (are) either for a one-tailed test or a /2 for a
mean.
two-tailed test. Use the right tail for an upper-tailed test and the left tail for a
lower-tailed test. Reject H 0 when the test statistic exceeds the critical value
2. You may notice that some ofand thefalls
cells in the spreadsheet are overlapping. To adjust
• All examples
this, highlight the affected columns
in the rejection region.
and click and the exercises
Home tab.inInthe thetext
Cellsthat Approximating s Using the Range
contain printouts or calculator screen
group,
• To find a p-value, find the area in the tail “beyond” the test statistic. IfTchebysheff’s
the
choose Format ➤ AutoFit Column c
aptures
Width. are
You based
may on
want MINITAB
to modify 18,
theMS Excel
appearance 2016,
test is one-tailed, this is the p-value. If the test is two-tailed, this is only
or the Theorem
TI-84 Plusand the Empirical Rule can be used to detect large
calculator.
thehalf
calculation of s. Roughly speaking, these two tools tell you that most of t
of the output by decreasing the Theseand
thedecimal
p-value outputs
accuracy are provided
in certain
must be doubled. H 0for
cells.
Reject some
Highlight
when exercises,
the appro-
the p-value while
is less than a . other
measurements lie exercises require
within two standard the of their mean. This interval is
deviations
priate cells and click the Decrease Decimal
student icon solutions
to obtain (Home tab, Number
without group)
using to
a computer.
modify the output. We have displayed48
the accuracy to three decimal places.
chapter 1 Describing Data with Graphs
Name Length (mi) Name Length (mi) d. Use a bar graph to show the percentage of federal
Gulf fishing areas closed.
54428_ch09_hr_335-379.indd 347 Superior 350 Titicaca 122 9/4/18 12:10 PM
Victoria 54428_ch02_hr_054-095.indd
209 Nicaragua 71 102 e. Use a line chart to show the amounts of dispersants
Huron 206 Athabasca 208 used. Is there any underlying straight line relation-
Michigan 307 Reindeer 143 ship over time?
Aral Sea 260 Tonle Sap 70
Tanganyika 420 Turkana 154
Baykal 395 Issyk Kul 115 DATA 7. election Results The 2016 election was a race
SET
r_054-095.indd 87 Great Bear 192 Torrens 130 9/24/18 in which
8:37 AM Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton
DS0129
Nyasa 360 Vänern 91 and other candidates, winning 304 electoral votes,
Great Slave 298 Nettilling 67 or 57% of the 538 available. However, Trump only won
Erie 241 Winnipegosis 141
Winnipeg 266 Albert 100 46.1% of the popular vote, while Clinton won 48.2%.
Ontario 193 Nipigon 72 The popular vote (in thousands) for Donald Trump in
Balkhash 376 Gairdner 90 each of the 50 states is listed as follows18:
Ladoga 124 Urmia 90
Maracaibo 133 Manitoba 140 AL 1319 HI 129 MA 1091 NM 320 SD 228
Onega 145 Chad 175 AK 163 ID 409 MI 2280 NY 2820 TN 1523
Eyre 90 AZ 1252 IL 2146 MN 1323 NC 2363 TX 4685
AR 685 IN 1557 MS 701 ND 217 UT 515
Source: The World Almanac and Book of Facts 2017 CA 4484 IA 801 MO 1595 OH 2841 VT 95
CO 1202 KS 671 MT 279 OK 949 VA 1769
a. Use a stem and leaf plot to describe the lengths of CT 673 KY 1203 NE 496 OR 782 WA 1222
the world’s major lakes. DE 185 LA 1179 NV 512 PA 2971 WV 489
FL 4618 ME 336 NH 346 RI 181 WI 1405
b. Use a histogram to display these same data. How
GA 2089 MD 943 NJ 1602 SC 1155 WY 174
does this compare to the stem and leaf plot in part a?
c. Are these data symmetric or skewed? If skewed, a. By just looking at the table, what shape do you think
what is the direction of the skewing? the distribution for the popular vote by state will
have?
DATA 6. Gulf oil Spill Cleanup On April 20, 2010, the
SET b. Draw a relative frequency histogram to describe the
United States experienced a major environmental
DS0128 distribution of the popular vote for President Trump
disaster when a Deepwater Horizon drilling rig
in the 50 states.
exploded in the Gulf of Mexico. The number of person-
nel and equipment used in the Gulf oil spill cleanup, c. Did the histogram in part b confirm your guess in
beginning May 2, 2010 (Day 13) through June 9, 2010 part a? Are there any outliers? How can you explain
(Day 51) is given in the following table.17 them?
Day 13 Day 26 Day 39 Day 51 DATA 8. election Results, continued Refer to Exercise 7.
SET
Number of personnel (1000s) 3.0 17.5 20.0 24.0 Listed here is the percentage of the popular vote
DS0130
Federal Gulf fishing areas closed 3% 8% 25% 32% received by President Trump in each of the
Booms laid (miles) 46 315 644 909 50instates
whole:or in part. WCN 02-200-203
18
Copyright 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated,
Dispersants used (1000 gallons) 156 500 870 1143
Vessels deployed (100s) 1.0 6.0 14.0 35.0 AL 62 HI 30 MA 33 NM 40 SD 62
AK 51 ID 59 MI 47 NY 37 TN 61
a. What types of graphs could you use to display these AZ 49 IL 39 MN 45 NC 50 TX 52
AR 61 IN 57 MS 58 ND 63 UT 46
data? CA 32 IA 51 MO 57 OH 52 VT 30
54428_fm_hr_i-xxii.indd 17 b. Before you draw your graphs, what trends do you CO 43 KS 57 MT 56 OK 65 VA 449/28/18 9:40 AM
CT 44 KY 63 NE 59 OR 39 WA 37
xviii Preface
Study Aids curve with a mean of 250 and a standard deviation of 15. First calculate
x 2m 211.5 2 250
z5 5 5 2 2.57
The many and varied exercises s in the15text provide the best learning tool for students em-
barking on a first course
Thenin statistics. The answers to all odd-numbered exercises are given
in the back of the text, and a detailed solution for each odd-numbered exercise appears in
P( x ≤ 211) ≈ P ( z < 2 2.57) 5 .0051
the Student Solutions Manual, which is available as a supplement for students. Each appli-
The probability
cation exercise has a title, making of it observing
easier for a sample valueand
students of 211 or less when to
instructors .10 is so small that
p 5immediately you
iden-
can conclude that one of two things has occurred: Either you have observed an unusual sample
tify both the context of the
even problem
though really pand
5 .10the area
, or the of reflects
sample application. All value
that the actual of the
of pbasic exercises
is less than .10 and
have been rewritten and all closer
perhaps of the applied
to the observedexercises restructured
sample proportion, 211/2500 according
5 .08. to increasing
difficulty. New exercises have been introduced, dated exercises have been deleted, and a
new numbering system has been introduced within each section.
6.3 exercises
the basics 12. P( x $ 6) and P( x . 6) when n 5 15 and p 5 .5
Normal Approximation? Can the normal approxima- 13. P(4 # x # 6) when n 5 25 and p 5 .2
tion be used to approximate probabilities for the bino-
mial random variable x, with values for n and p given 14. P( x $ 7) and P( x 5 5) when n 5 20 and p 5 .3
in Exercises 1–4? If not, is there another approximation 15. P( x $ 10) when n 5 20 and p 5 .4
that you could use?
1. n 5 25 and p 5 .6 2. n 5 45 and p 5 .05 applying the basics
3. n 5 25 and p 5 .3 4. n 5 15 and p 5 .5 16. A USA Today snapshot found that 47% of Ameri-
Using the Normal Approximation Find the mean and cans associate “recycling” with Earth Day.9 Suppose a
standard deviation for the binomial random variable x random sample of n 5 50 adults are polled and that the
using the information in Exercises 5–11. Then use the 47% figure is correct. Use the normal curve to approxi-
correction for continuity and approximate the probabili- mate the probabilities of the following events.
Students
ties should
using the normal be encouraged to use the
approximation. “NEED TO KNOW. . .” sections as they
occur
5. P ( xin
. the
9) text. The placement
when n 5 25 and p 5 .6 of these sections is intended to answer questions as they
Recycling 47% Cleaning
would
246 normally arise
chapter 7 Sampling in discussions.
Distributions
6. P(6 # x # 9) when n 5 25 and p 5 .3 In addition, there are numerous hintslocal
23% called
parks,
beaches,etc.
“NEED
A TIP?” that appear in the margins of the text. The tips are short and 30%concise.
7. P(20 , x , 25) when n 5 100 and p 5 .2
8. P( x . 22) when n 5 100 and p 5 .2
introduction Planting a tree
Taking care
9. P( x $ 22) when n 5 100 and In the p5 previous
.2 three chapters, you have learned a lot about probabilityof distributions,
the Earth
such
as the binomial and normal distributions. The shape of the normal What do you relate most to Earthis
distribution determined
Day?
10.●P ( x #a 25)
● Need Tip?when n 5 100by and 5 .2 m and its standard deviation s , while the shape of the binomial distribution is
itspmean
parameter ⇔ population determined by p. These numerical descriptive measures—called parameters—are needed
P(355
11.Statistic ⇔# x # 360) when n 5 400 and p 5 .9
Sample a. Fewer than 30 individuals associate “recycling” with
to calculate the probability of observing sample results.
How Good Is 86YourCHAPTER
Approximation? Using
In practical
2 Describing Data with Table
situations,
Numerical in may beEarth
1 you
Measures
Day?
able to decide which type of probability distribution
Appendix I, find the exact valuesto usefor as the binomial
a model, but the values ofb.the
prob- More than 20that
parameters individuals
specify its associate
exact form “recycling”
are unknown.with
abilities in 26.Exercises 12–15. Then approximate Earth Day?
Snapshots Here
Here are are two
a few examples:
snapshots fromthe USA • Twenty-two percent of all fans are willing to pay
probabilitiesToday.
using the normal approximation with the c. More$75 than 10 individuals do not of associate
• The person conducting an opinion poll isorsure
more for the
that a ticket to one
responses the top
to his 100 concert
“agree/dis-
correction for • continuity.
About 12% ofCompare
America’s your
agree” answers.
questions
volunteers spend will follow
more “recycling”
tours.
thana binomial with Earth
distribution, butDay?
p, the proportion of those
Finally, sections
5 hours percalled Key Concepts
week volunteering.
who “agree” and Formulas
in the population, is Identify
unknown. appear inx each
the variable chapterandasany
being measured, a review
percentiles you can determine from this information.
in outline form of the
• Fifty-eight material
percent of covered
all cars
• An inarethat
in operation
agricultural chapter.
at least
researcher believes that the yield per acre of a variety of wheat is
8 years old. approximately normally distributed, but the mean m and standard deviation s of the
yields are unknown.
CHAPTER REVIEW
In these cases, you must rely on the sample to learn about these parameters. The proportion of
54428_ch06_hr_212-244.indd 232 9/6/18 7:03 AM
those who “agree” in the pollster’s sample provides information about the actual value of p.
2. The Empirical Rule can be used only for rela-
Key Concepts and Formulas
The mean and standard deviation of the researcher’s sample approximate the actual values of
tively mound-shaped data sets. Approximately
I.
m and s . If you want the sample to provide reliable
Measures of the Center of a Data Distribution 68%,information about the
95%, and 99.7% population,
of the however,
measurements are
you must select your sample in a certain way! within one, two, and three standard deviations of
1. Arithmetic mean (mean) or average
the mean, respectively.
a. Population: m
∑ xi IV. Measures of Relative Standing
b. Sample of n measurements: x 5
7.1 Sampling plans and experimental Designs
n
1. Sample z-score: z 5
x2x
2. Median; position of the median 5 .5(n 1) s
3. Mode The way a sample is selected is called the sampling plan or p%
2. pth percentile; experimental design. Know-
of the measurements are
4. The medianingmaythe
be sampling
preferred toplan used in
the mean a particular situation
if the smaller, will often
and (100 2 allow
p)% areyou to measure the
larger.
reliability
data are highly skewed.or goodness of your inference. 3. Lower quartile, Q1; position of Q1 5 .25 (n 1)
Simple random sampling is a commonly used sampling plan in which every sample
II. Measures of Variability 4. Upper quartile, Q ; position of Q 5 .75 (n 1)
of size n has the same chance of being selected. For example,3 suppose you 3want to select
1. Range: R 5alargest smallest 5. Interquartile
sample of size n 5 2 from a population containing
2 N 5 range: IQR If
4 objects. Q3 2four
5 the Q1 objects are
2. Variance identified by the symbols x1, x 2, x3, and V. x 4, there are six distinct
The Five-Number pairs thatand
Summary could
BoxbePlots
selected,
as of
a. Population listed in Table 7.1. If the sample of n 5 1.
N measurements: 2 observations
The five-numberis selected
summary:so that each of these
six samples has the same chance—one out of six or Min 1/6—of Q1 selection,
Median thenQ3 the
Maxresulting
∑( x i 2 m ) 2
2
Copyright 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved.sMay5 notsample is called a simple random sample, ororjust a random sample.
be
N copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole One-fourth
in part. of
WCNthe measurements
02-200-203 in the data set
lie between each of the four adjacent pairs of
b. Sample of n measurements:
numbers.
■●Table 7.1 Ways of2 Selecting a Sample of Size 2 from 4 Objects
∑ x 2
2
( ∑ xi ) 2. Box plots are used for detecting outliers and
∑( x i 2 x ) 2
Observations
i
n shapes of distributions.
s2 5 5
nSample
21 in Sample
n 21
54428_fm_hr_i-xxii.indd 19 3. Q1 and Q3 form the ends of the box. The median 9/28/18 9:40 AM
1 x ,x 1 2
xx Preface
Instructor Resources
WebAssign
WebAssign for Mendenhall/Beaver/Beaver’s Introduction to Probability and Statistics, 15th
Edition, is a flexible and fully customizable online instructional solution that puts powerful
tools in the hands of instructors, empowering you to deploy assignments, instantly assess
individual student and class performance, and help your students master the course concepts.
With WebAssign’s powerful digital platform and Introduction to Probability and Statistics’s
specific content, you can tailor your course with a wide range of assignment settings, add your
own questions and content, and access student and course analytics and communication tools.
MindTap Reader
Available via WebAssign, MindTap Reader is Cengage’s next-generation eBook. MindTap
Reader provides robust opportunities for students to annotate, take notes, navigate, and
interact with the text. Instructors can edit the text and assets in the Reader, as well as add
videos or URLs.
Cognero
Cengage Learning Testing, powered by Cognero, is a flexible, online system that allows
you to import, edit, and manipulate content from the text’s Test Bank or elsewhere—
including your own favorite test questions; create multiple test versions in an instant; and
deliver tests from your LMS, your classroom, or wherever you want.
SnapStat
Tell the story behind the numbers with SnapStat in WebAssign. Designed with students
to bring stats to life, SnapStat uses interactive visuals to perform complex analysis online.
Labs and Projects in WebAssign allow students to crunch their own data or choose from
pre-existing data sets to get hands-on with technology and see for themselves that Statistics
is much more than just numbers.
Student Resources
WebAssign
WebAssign for Mendenhall/Beaver/Beaver’s Introduction to Probability and Statistics,
15th Edition, lets you prepare for class with confidence. Its online learning platform for
your math, statistics, and science courses helps you practice and absorb what you learn.
Copyright 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
Videos and tutorials walk you through concepts when you’re stuck, and instant feedback
and grading let you know where you stand—so you can focus your study time and perform
better on in-class assignments. Study smarter with WebAssign!
MindTap Reader
Available via WebAssign, MindTap Reader is Cengage’s next-generation eBook. MindTap
Reader provides robust opportunities for students to annotate, take notes, navigate, and
interact with the text. Annotations captured in MindTap are automatically tied to the
Notepad app, where they can be viewed chronologically and in a cogent, linear fashion.
SnapStat
Learn the story behind the numbers with SnapStat in WebAssign. Designed with students
to bring stats to life, SnapStat uses interactive visuals to perform complex analysis online.
Labs and Projects in WebAssign allow you to crunch your own data or choose from pre-
existing data sets to get hands-on with technology and see for yourself that Statistics is
much more than just numbers.
Acknowledgments
The authors are grateful to Catherine Van Der Laan and the editorial staff of Cengage
Learning for their patience, assistance, and cooperation in the preparation of this edition.
Thanks are also due to fifteenth edition reviewers Olcay Akman, Matt Harris,
hongming Huang, Bo Kai, Sarah Miller, and Katie Wheaton. We wish to thank authors
Z
and organizations for allowing us to reprint selected material; acknowledgments are
made wherever such material appears in the text.
Robert J. Beaver
Barbara M. Beaver
Copyright 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
• Northam Heads Into Virginia Governor’s Race With A Small Lead. The first
major statewide elections since President Trump was inaugurated take place on
Tuesday…And while the race’s final result by itself isn’t likely to tell us much
about the national political environment, it is likely to have a big effect on the 2018
midterms. Polls show a fairly close race, with Northam slightly favored to win [over
Ed Gillespie]. An average of the last 10 surveys give Northam a 46 percent-to-43
percent advantage. Over the past month, there has been a tightening of the race, with
Gillespie closing what had been a 6-point lead. In the individual polls, though, there
is a fairly wide spread. Northam has led by as much as 17 percentage points
(a Quinnipiac University survey) and has trailed by as much as 8 points (a Hampton
University poll).1
—www.fivethirtyeight.com
• Why Trump Has a Lock on the 2020 GOP Nomination. In interviews with nearly
three-dozen GOP strategists and fundraisers over the past several tumultuous weeks,
virtually everyone told me that…they expect Trump to coast to the GOP nomina-
tion in 2020…the hurdles to a 2020 primary challenge are vivid when considering
a recent Washington Post/ABC News poll that found 91% of Trump voters said
they’d vote for him again…This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by
landline and cellular telephone Oct. 29-Nov. 1, 2017, in English and Spanish, among
a random national sample of 1005 adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of
3.5 points, including the design effect.2
—www.cnn.com
Copyright 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
Articles similar to these can be found in all forms of news media, and, just before a presi-
dential or congressional election, a new poll is reported almost every day. These articles are
very familiar to us; however, they might leave you with some unanswered questions. How
were the people in the poll selected? Will these people give the same response tomorrow?
Will they give the same response on election day? Will they even vote? Are these people
representative of all those who will vote on election day? It is the job of a statistician to ask
these questions and to find answers for them in the language of the poll.
Most Believe “Cover-Up” of JFK Assassination Facts
A majority of the public believes the assassination of President John F. Kennedy was part of a
larger conspiracy, not the act of one individual. In addition, most Americans think there was a
cover-up of facts about the 1963 shooting. Almost 50 years after JFK’s assassination, a FOX
news poll shows many Americans disagree with the government’s conclusions about the killing.
The Warren Commission found that Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone when he shot Kennedy,
but 66 percent of the public today think the assassination was “part of a larger conspiracy” while
only 25 percent think it was the “act of one individual.”
“For older Americans, the Kennedy assassination was a traumatic experience that began
a loss of confidence in government,” commented Opinion Dynamics President John Gorman.
“Younger people have grown up with movies and documentaries that have pretty much pushed
the ‘conspiracy’ line. Therefore, it isn’t surprising there is a fairly solid national consensus that
we still don’t know the truth.”
(The poll asked): “Do you think that we know all the facts about the assassination of
President John F. Kennedy or do you think there was a cover-up?”
We Know All the Facts (%) There Was a Cover-Up (Not Sure)
All 14 74 12
Democrats 11 81 8
Republicans 18 69 13
Independents 12 71 17
—www.foxnews.com3
When you see an article like this one, do you simply read the title and the first paragraph,
or do you read further and try to understand the meaning of the numbers? How did the
authors get these numbers? Did they really interview every American with each political
affiliation? It is the job of the statistician to answer some of these questions.
Hot News: 98.6 Not Normal
After believing for more than a century that 98.6 was the normal body temperature for humans,
researchers now say normal is not normal anymore.
For some people at some hours of the day, 99.9 degrees could be fine. And readings as low
as 96 turn out to be highly human.
The 98.6 standard was derived by a German doctor in 1868. Some physicians have always
been suspicious of the good doctor’s research. His claim: 1 million readings—in an epoch
without computers.
So Mackowiak & Co. took temperature readings from 148 healthy people over a three-day
period and found that the mean temperature was 98.2 degrees. Only 8 percent of the readings
were 98.6.
—The Press-Enterprise4
What questions do you have when you read this article? How did the researcher select the
148 people, and how can we be sure that the results based on these 148 people are accurate
when applied to the general population? How did the researcher arrive at the normal “high”
and “low” temperatures given in the article? How did the German doctor record 1 million
temperatures in 1868? This is another statistical problem with an application to everyday life.
Statistics is a branch of mathematics that has applications in almost every part of our
daily life. It is a new and unfamiliar language for most people, however, and, like any
Copyright 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
ORTHOPTERA.
In the next order of insects, the locust tribe, as they are the greatest
destroyers of food, so, as some recompense, they furnish a
considerable supply of it to numerous nations. They are recorded to
have done this from the most remote antiquity, some Ethiopian tribes
having been named from this circumstance locust-eaters. The
generic name of the locusts, Gryllus, sounds like an invitation to
cook them. Pliny relates that they were in high esteem as meat
amongst the Parthians. When there is a scarcity of grain, as a
substitute for flour the Arabs grind locusts in their hand-mills, or
pound them in stone mortars. They mix this flour with water into a
dough, and make thin cakes of it, which they bake like other bread.
They also eat them in another way; they boil them first a good while
in water, and afterwards stew with oil or butter into a kind of fricassée
of no bad flavour.
The large kinds of locust are made use of in several quarters as
food, and in the markets of the Levant fresh and salted locusts are
vended. Hasselquist tells us, that when corn is scarce, the Arabians
grind the locusts in hand-mills, or pound them in stone mortars, and
bake them as bread; and that even when there is no scarcity of corn,
the Arabs stew them with butter and make them into a kind of a
fricassée, the flavour of which is by no means disagreeable. Why
should land shrimp sauce not be equal to sea shrimp sauce?
Locusts, Cumming tells us, afford fattening and wholesome food to
man, birds, and all sorts of beasts. The hungry dogs and hogs feed
greedily on them,—so that there are plenty of enemies to prey in
time upon these wholesale depredators. Young turkeys live almost
entirely on them in some parts of America, and become very fat
when they are plentiful. Hence, if so many animals thrive upon them,
they must necessarily be dainty food.
It is not only by the inhabitants of the Great Desert that the locusts
are hailed with joy. The Kafirs also give them a hearty welcome, and
make many a good meal upon them too,—not only eating them in
large quantities, but making a sort of coffee-colored soup of their
eggs.
Locusts are cooked in various ways—roasted, boiled, and fried.
They are also salted and smoked, and packed away against a time
of scarcity. It is said, they taste very much like fish, and are
particularly light, delicate, and wholesome food. They are carried into
many of the towns of Africa by waggon-loads, as we bring poultry to
market.
The Hottentots are highly rejoiced at the arrival of the locusts in their
country, although they destroy all its verdure, eating them in such
quantities as to get visibly fatter than before, and making of their
eggs a brown or coffee-coloured soup.
In the Mahratta country in India, the common people salt and eat
them. This was anciently the custom with many of the African
nations, some of whom also smoked them.
Dishes of locusts are generally served up at the principal tables in
Barbary, and esteemed a great delicacy. They are preferred by the
Moors to pigeons; and a person may eat a plateful of 200 or 300
without feeling any ill effects. They usually boil them in water half-an-
hour, having thrown away the head, wings, and legs, then sprinkle
them with salt and pepper and fry them, adding a little vinegar.
Another traveller describes the way they are prepared for food in the
desert of Zahara.—‘In and about this valley were great flights of
locusts. During the day, they are flying around very thickly in the
atmosphere; but the copious dews and chilly air in the night render
them unable to fly, and they settle down on the bushes. It was the
constant employment of the natives in the night to gather these
insects from the bushes, which they did in great quantities. My
master’s family, each with a small bag, went out the first night upon
this employment, carrying a very large bag to bring home the fruits of
their labor. My mistress, Fatima, however, and the two little children,
remained in the tent. I declined this employment, and retired to rest
under the large tent. The next day, the family returned loaded with
locusts, and, judging by the eye of the quantity produced, there must
have been about fifteen bushels. This may appear to be a large
quantity to be gathered in so short a time, but it is scarcely worth
mentioning when compared with the loads of them gathered,
sometimes, in the more fertile part of the country over which they
pass, leaving a track of desolation behind them. But as they were the
first, in any considerable quantity, that I had seen, and the first I had
seen cooked and eaten, I mention it in this place, hoping hereafter to
give my readers more particular information concerning these
wonderful and destructive insects, which, from the days of Moses to
this time, have been considered, by Jews and Mahometans, as the
most severe judgment which Heaven can inflict upon man. But,
whatever the Egyptians might have thought in ancient days, or the
Moors and Arabs in those of modern date, the Arabs who are
compelled to inhabit the desert of Zahara, so far from considering a
flight of locusts as a judgment upon them for their transgressions,
welcome their approach as the means, sometimes, of saving them
from famishing with hunger. The whole that were brought to the tent
at this time were cooked while alive, as indeed they always are, for a
dead locust is never cooked. The manner of cooking is by digging a
deep hole in the ground, building a fire at the bottom, as before
described, and filling it up with wood. After it is heated as hot as is
possible, the coals and embers are taken out, and they prepare to fill
the cavity with the locusts, confined in a large bag. A sufficient
number of the natives hold the bag perpendicularly over the hole, the
mouth of it being near the surface of the ground. A number stand
round the hole with sticks. The mouth of the bag is then opened, and
it is shaken with great force, the locusts falling into the hot pit, and
the surrounding natives throwing sand upon them to prevent them
from flying off. The mouth of the hole is then covered with sand, and
another fire built upon the top of it. In this manner they cook all they
have on hand, and dig a number of holes sufficient to accomplish it,
each containing about five bushels. They remain in the hole until
they become sufficiently cooled to be taken out with the hand. They
are then picked out, and thrown upon tent-cloths or blankets, and
remain in the sun to dry, where they must be watched with the
utmost care to prevent the live locusts from devouring them, if a flight
happens to be passing at the time. When they are perfectly dried,
which is not done short of two or three days, they are slightly
pounded, and pressed into bags or skins, ready for transportation. To
prepare them to eat, they are pulverized in mortars, and mixed with
water sufficient to make a kind of dry pudding. They are, however,
sometimes eaten singly, without pulverizing, by breaking off the
head, wings, and legs, and swallowing the remaining part. In
whatever manner they are eaten, they are nourishing food.’
Captain Stockenstrom, in a paper in the South African Journal on
these insects, observes, ‘Not only the locust-bird, but every animal,
domestic and wild, contributes to the destruction of the locust
swarms; fowls, sheep, horses, dogs, antelopes, and almost every
living thing, may be seen devouring them with equal greediness;
whilst the half-starved Bushmen, and even some of the colonial
Hottentots, consider them a great luxury, consuming great quantities
fresh, and drying abundance for future emergencies. Great havoc is
also committed among the locusts by their own kindred; for as soon
as any one of them gets hurt, or meets with an accident which
impedes his progress, his fellow travellers nearest to him
immediately turn upon him, and devour him with great voracity.’
Mr. Moffat (Missionary Labours in South Africa) states—‘The locusts
for food are always caught at night, when they are at rest, and
carried in sacks to the nearest encampment or village, to be
prepared for keeping. A very small quantity of water is put into a pot,
and the locusts, piled up to the very brim, are covered very closely,
so that they are rather steamed than boiled. They are next carefully
separated and laid out to dry, which the heat of an Arabian or African
sun does thoroughly and speedily; after which they are winnowed to
get rid of the wings and legs, when they are laid up in heaps, or
packed in bags of skin for future use. Sometimes the dry locusts are
beaten into a powder, of which, with water and a little salt, a kind of
pottage is made.’
Mr. R. Gordon Cumming, in the course of his rambles in Africa, fell in
with swarms of locusts, and gives interesting accounts respecting
them. Here are some extracts from his work:—
‘The next day, as we crossed a vast plain, a flight of locusts passed
over our heads during upwards of half-an-hour, flying so thick as to
darken the sun. They reached in dark clouds as far as we could see,
and maintained an elevation of from 6 to 300 or 400 feet above the
level of the plain. Woe to the vegetation of the country on which they
alight! * *
‘On the march we crossed a swarm of locusts, resting for the night
on the grass and bushes. They lay so thick that the waggons could
have been filled with them in a very short time, covering the large
bushes just as a swarm of young bees covers the branch on which it
pitches. Locusts afford fattening and wholesome food to man, birds,
and all sorts of beasts; cows and horses, lions, jackals, hyænas,
antelopes, elephants, &c., devour them. We met a party of Batlapis
carrying heavy burdens of them on their backs. Our hungry dogs
made a fine feast on them. The cold frosty night had rendered them
unable to take wing until the sun should restore their powers. As it
was difficult to obtain sufficient food for my dogs, I and Isaac took a
large blanket, which we spread under a bush, whose branches were
bent to the ground with the mass of locusts which covered it, and
having shaken the branches, in an instant I had more locusts than I
could carry on my back. These we roasted for ourselves and dogs.
Soon after the sun was up, on looking behind me, I beheld the
locusts stretching to the west in vast clouds, resembling smoke; but
the wind soon after veering round, brought them back to us, and they
flew over our heads, for some time actually darkening the sun. * * * *
****
‘The dullness of the scene, however, was enlivened by a wondrous
flight of locusts, the largest I had ever beheld. The prospect was
obscured by them as far as we could see, resembling the smoke
arising from a thousand giant bonfires; while those above our heads
darkened our path with a double flight, the one next the ground flying
north, while the upper clouds of them held a southerly course. The
dogs, as usual, made a hearty meal of them. * * * *
‘We crossed the Limpopo, and having followed it for five miles, we at
length got into a country so densely covered with locusts that the
spore was no longer visible. A large herd of elephants had, during
several previous nights, however, been there feasting upon these
insects.’
According to Niebuhr, the Arabians distinguish several kinds of
locusts, to which they give separate names. They refer only to the
delicacy of its flesh, and not to the nature of the insect. The red
locust is termed Merrken, as it is esteemed by the epicures much
fatter and more succulent than the light locust, which is called by
them Dubbe, because it has a tendency to produce diarrhœa. The
inhabitants of Arabia, Persia, Africa, and Syria, are accustomed to
eat them. The Turks have an aversion to this kind of food; but if the
Europeans express the same, the Arabians remind them of their
fondness for crabs, &c. This kind of food, however, is supposed to
thicken the blood, and produce melancholy.
The custom of feeding upon locusts seems more generally diffused
than is supposed, and is not merely confined to Africa and Arabia.
They are eaten by the Nanningetes in the Malay Peninsula.
Dampier states that, on islands near Timor, ‘They make also a dish
of locusts, which come at certain seasons to devour their potatoes.
They take them with nets, and broil or bake them in an earthen pan.
This dish,’ he adds, ‘eats well enough.’
And the author of A Mission to Ava speaks of them as a Burmese
dainty.
‘The most notable viand produced consisted of fried locusts. These
were brought in, hot and hot, in successive saucers, and I was not
sorry to have the opportunity of tasting a dish so famous. They were
by no means bad, much like what we might suppose fried shrimps to
be. The inside is removed, and the cavity stuffed with a little spiced
meat.’
The Rev. R. Sheppard caused some of our large English
grasshoppers, or field crickets, to be cooked in the way here
recommended, only substituting butter for vinegar, and found them to
be excellent food.
From these statements it will be seen, that the locusts which formed
part of the sustenance of John the Baptist, and about which there
has been much controversy among learned men, could be nothing
else but the animal locust, so common a food in the East, and even
in Africa, to the present day. They are eaten even by the North
American Indians.
‘Among the choice delicacies with which the California Digger
Indians regale themselves during the summer season,’ (says the
Empire County Argus,) ‘is the grasshopper roast. Having been an
eye witness to the preparation and discussion of one of their feasts
of grasshoppers, we can describe it truthfully. There are districts in
California, as well as portions of the plains between Sierra Nevada
and the Rocky Mountains, that literally swarm with grasshoppers,
and in such astonishing numbers that a man cannot place his foot to
the ground, while walking there, without crushing great numbers. To
the Indian they are a delicacy, and are caught and cooked in the
following manner:—A piece of ground is sought where they most
abound, in the centre of which an excavation is made, large and
deep enough to prevent the insect from hopping out when once in.
The entire party of diggers, old and young, male and female, then
surround as much of the adjoining grounds as they can, and each
with a green bough in hand, whipping and thrashing on every side,
gradually approach the centre, driving the insects before them in
countless multitudes, till at last all, or nearly all, are secured in the
pit. In the meantime, smaller excavations are made, answering the
purpose of ovens, in which fires are kindled and kept up till the
surrounding earth, for a short distance, becomes sufficiently heated,
together with a flat stone, large enough to cover the oven. The
grasshoppers are now taken in coarse bags, and after being
thoroughly soaked in salt water for a few moments, are emptied into
the oven and closed in. Ten or fifteen minutes suffice to roast them,
when they are taken out and eaten without further preparation, and
with much apparent relish, or as is sometimes the case, reduced to
powder and made into soup. And having from curiosity tasted, not of
the soup, but of the roast, really, if one could but divest himself of the
idea of eating an insect, as we do an oyster or shrimp, without other
preparation than simple roasting, they would not be considered very
bad eating, even by more refined epicures than the Digger Indians.’
NEUROPTERA.
Another order of insects contains the so-called white-ant tribe
(Termes), which, in return for the mischief it does at certain times,
affords an abundant supply of food to some of the African natives.
The natives of Western Australia pull out the young from the nests at
one season of the year and eat them. Ducks and fowls also feed
greedily on them.
In many countries, the termites, or white-ants, serve for food. In
some parts of the East Indies, the natives catch the winged insects,
just before their period of emigration, in the following manner:—They
make two holes, the one to the windward, the other to the leeward;
at the leeward opening, they place the mouth of a pot, the inside of
which has been previously rubbed with an aromatic herb, called
bugera; on the windward side, they make a fire of stinking materials,
which not only drives these insects, but frequently the hooded
snakes also, into the pots, on which account they are obliged to be
cautious in removing them. By this method, they catch great
quantities, of which they make, with flour, a variety of pastry, which
they can afford to sell very cheap to the poorer ranks of people.
When this sort of food is used too abundantly, it produces, however,
cholera, which kills in two or three hours. It also seems that, in some
form or other, these insects are greedily eaten in other districts.
Thus, when after swarming shoals of them fall into the rivers, the
Africans skim them off the surface with calabashes, and, bringing
them to their habitations, parch them in iron pots over a gentle fire,
stirring them about as is usually done in roasting coffee; in that state,
without sauce or any other addition, they consider them delicious
food, putting them by handfuls into their mouths, as we do comfits.
[30]
HEMIPTERA.
Coming to another order of insects, the cicada, or chirping flies, we
find that these were eaten by the polished Greeks, and accounted
very delicious. They were caught, strung, sold, and greedily
devoured; and especially the females were relished on account of
their white eggs. One species, a very long-lived one, which, if
spared, lives to the age of 17 years, is still eaten by the Indians of
America, who pluck off the wings and boil them. The aborigines of
Australia eat them raw, after stripping off the wings.
The 17-year locusts, while in an underground grub state, are a
favourite food of various species of animals. Immense numbers are
destroyed by hogs before they emerge from the ground; they are
also, when in their perfect state, eagerly devoured by chickens,
squirrels, and many of the larger birds. The Indians likewise consider
them a delicate food when fried; and in New Jersey they have been
turned to a profitable account in making soap.
No insects are more numerous with us than caterpillars, and sad
havoc they occasionally commit among our cabbages and
cauliflowers. Now we generally make wry faces, when a stray one is
served up with our greens, and the cook is severely taken to task;
but these are reckoned among the chief delicacies of an African
Bushman’s meal.
The Hottentots eat them boiled and raw, and soon get into good
condition on this food. They bring large calabashes full of them to
their habitations, and parch them in iron pots over a gentle fire,
stirring them about as is done in roasting coffee. In that state, without
sauce or other addition, they serve them up as delicious food, and
eat them by handfuls, as we do sugar-plums.
One traveller tells us he has eaten them dressed in this way several
times, and thought them delicate, nourishing, and wholesome, being
sweeter than the grub of the weevil of the palm, and resembling in
taste sugared cream or sweet almond paste.
ARACHNIDA.
What will be said to spiders as food? But these form an article in the
list of the Bushman’s dainties in South Africa, according to
Sparrman; and the inhabitants of New Caledonia, Labillardiere tells
us, seek for, and eat with avidity, large quantities of a spider nearly
an inch long, which they roast over the fire. Even individuals
amongst the more polished nations of Europe are recorded as
having a similar taste; so that if you could rise above vulgar
prejudices, you would in all probability find them a most delicate
morsel. If you require precedents, Reaumur tells us of a young lady,
who, when she walked in her grounds, never saw a spider that she
did not take and crunch upon the spot. Another female, the
celebrated Anna Maria Schurman, used to eat them like nuts, which
she affirmed they much resembled in taste, excusing her propensity
by saying that she was born under the sign Scorpio.
If you wish for the authority of the learned: Lalande, the celebrated
French astronomer, was equally fond of these delicacies, according
to Latreille. And if, not content with eating spiders seriatim, you
should feel desirous of eating them by handfuls, you may shelter
yourself under the authority of the German immortalized by Rosel,
who used to spread them upon bread like butter, observing that he
found them very useful.[34]
These edible spiders, and such like, are all sufficiently disgusting,
but we feel our nausea quite turned into horror when we read in
Humboldt, that he has seen the Indian children drag out of the earth
centipedes 18 inches long, and more than half an inch broad, and
devour them.