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 China
The Rise of
the Chinese
Economy
and Growing
Concerns in the
United States
BY KALIM SIDDIQUI
I. Introduction
The article discusses recent global economic changes
and will largely focus on two of the worlds’ largest
economies, namely China and the United States.
The present superpower i.e. the United States has
failed to come up with a solution to the challenges
posed by the last four decades of rapid expansion
of the Chinese economy. The Chinese population
is 1.45 billion, more than four times larger than
the US population, and any changes in its economy
and the living conditions of its people are bound to
have a global impact.
China is an ancient civilization. The Chinese
selection process of the party leadership and
government administration is based on a
meritocracy, which is based on their very long
experience and heavily influenced by their
Confucian philosophy. The Qing Empire accounted
for a third of the world’s wealth in 1810. For more
than two thousand years China dominated the
world economy; however, it is only for the last
two hundred years the West has dominated the
world economy, especially after the first Opium
war in 1942, which was led by Britain against
China. (Siddiqui, 2009) Understanding history is
very important regarding why some countries are
40 The World Financial Review September - October 2020
poor and some are rich. Respect for sovereignty is
crucial for a country’s economic development. In
order to achieve socio-economic development and
cooperation among countries is very important. To
achieve global economic prosperity and to improve
the environment, cooperation among countries is
crucial, which means multilateral cooperation. But
how can multilateralism be strengthened?
In Donald Trump’s trade war with China, it
appears that the US has made a mistake by opposing
China on all major fronts. For instance, the US
opposes China’s ‘One Belt and One Road’, including
the China and Pakistan Economic Corridor CPEC
project, which it sees as a threat to its interests in
South Asia and in the rest of the world. (Siddiqui,
2019a) It seems that the US has no economic
In Donald strategy to deal and engage with China.
Trump’s We will discuss here the historic conflict between
trade war nations in ancient Greece and try to examine them
with China, in light of the present context between the US and
China. Tensions have grown enormously in the
it appears
last few years in the South China Sea, where the
that the US US (along with Australia and other neighbouring
has made a countries) is trying to create a war-like situation.
mistake by The US is trying to humiliate China, however,
opposing rather than initiating a military show down
China on all and encircling China, it should compete in
major fronts. technological development.
 Let us look more broadly, for instance,
when a rising power (China) threatens to
displace an existing power (the US), how can
things potentially develop in terms of their
relationship? For example, when Germany’s
economy grew faster than Britain’s in the 1900s,
it rapidly rose as an economic power in first
decade of the 20th century. Germany’s potential
of emerging as an economic superpower created
fear in Britain and France, which led to World
War I in 1914 and again World War II in 1939.
Thucydides’ Trap explains why conflict can
happen and how it can be defused. According to
Thucydides in ancient Greece, why countries go
to war is because of three factors: fear, honour
and interest. Thucydides’ Trap  refers to the
theory that "when one great power threatens to
displace another, war is almost always the result".
Thucydides was an ancient Greek historian who
was born in Alimosin 460 B.C. and died in 411
B.C. He is known for his book The History of the
Peloponnesian War which analyses in detail the
key reasons behind the war between Sparta and
Athens in the 5th Century B.C. He described
that the primary cause of the Peloponnesian
War was the "growth in power of Athens,
and the alarm which this inspired in Sparta".
Thucydides traces the development of Athenian
power through the growth of the Athenian
empire in the years 479 B.C. to 432 B.C. This
is known as Thucydides’ Trap. The question is
how to avoid such possibilities for war between
two global economic powers.
During the post-war period, the GDP’s of
West Germany and Japan grew faster than the
During the post-war period, the
GDP’s of West Germany and Japan
grew faster than the U.S.
of goods". In 2004, the Chinese GDP was a
quarter of the US’s, its economy rose to become
equal to the US in 2014. In PPP terms and it
is expected that the China’s GDP will be 40%
larger that the US by 2024. Figure 1 shows
China and US GDP growth rates measured in
PPP from 1980 to 2020. (IMF, 2018)
Additionally, the Chinese economy
contributed just 2.8% of the global GDP in
1980, but rose to 18% by 2018, which was
one of the most phenomenal increases ever
witnessed in history. China’s share in global
GDP as percentage of world GDP has risen
sharply since 1980s as indicated in Figure 2.
II. Changes in the Living Conditions
Since 1989, the living conditions of half of the
US population have declined and the average
real incomes of the bottom 50% of the US
population have deteriorated in real income
terms. By contrast, during the same period, the
majority of China’s population has seen sharp
improvements in their real incomes and living
conditions. They have greater access now to
education, health, and housing than at any time



 





US, and similar trends were observed in labour  ‰Š…€€ €
€€‹
productivity as well. Both these countries’ 


economies expanded and began to challenge 

the US in many consumer and manufacturing 

goods. Since the 1980s the Chinese economy 






has grown even faster than ever experienced in 

the past and its contribution to global output 





has risen dramatically. (Siddiqui, 2020a)

For instance, we can measure in terms of the 

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), which is one  



popular macroeconomic analysis metric to 

compare economic productivity and standards

of living between countries. The PPP compares 
 
       

different countries' currencies through a "basket   ­€

‚ƒ„ €„…
†€‡…‡ˆ

worldfinancialreview.com 41
China





 decades, the country has become the world’s largest

 economy on the basis of purchasing power parity:
a top manufacturer, trader and holder of foreign

exchange reserves. Moreover, China is now a major
commercial partner of the US, besides being the
US’s largest trading partner; it is also the largest

foreign holder of the US Treasury Securities,
which funds US Federal debts and keeps interest
rates low in the US.

Despite the fact that the Chinese economy has
slowed from GDP growth rates of 14.2% in 2007
to 6.5% in 2019, and during theCovid-19 set back

of the 2020, the IMF predicts that it will continue
to grow to 5.5% by 2024. China is launching a
new growth model that relies less on exports

and Western markets, and more on domestic
  



       







      consumption and markets in developing countries.

 

in their past history. Under such circumstances, the
US is asking Chinese people to stand up against
their government in support of political pluralism
and democracy; it seems that the US ruling elites
are very naïve. Of course, Chinese people are
aware of the examples of failures of democracy and
contraction of the economies in post-1990s Russia
and Latin America.
Why was it that even the Chinese Communist
Party’s bureaucratic apparatus was much quicker
to change? It seems that once the party decided,
it ordered its mass of organisations and party
members to fully devote themselves to achieving its
goals. Thus, the party was not simply a spectator,
but rather was seen as a part of the system to achieve
the government’s stated objectives (Siddiqui,
2015a; also see 2015b).
Since the adoption of the pro-market policy in
1978, China has gradually opened its economy
to trade and foreign investment. China has also
sustained the world’s fastest growing economies,
with a real annual GDP growth of average 10%
up to 2018, a growth described by the World
Bank as “the fastest sustained expansion by a major
economy in history”. Obviously, this growth of
the Chinese economy has enabled the country to
double its GDP every eight years and helped to
raise about 800 million people out of poverty. As
a result of consistently fast GDP growth over four
42 The World Financial Review September - October 2020
The government has recently increased huge
investments in R&D and efforts are being made
to make innovation a top priority in economic
planning through various government initiatives
such as “Made in China 2025”, where it intends to
modernise the manufacturing sector and become
a major global player in this sector and high tech.
Since Deng Xiaoping launched economic
reforms in China in 1978, the people have seen
rising incomes, an expansion of employment
and improvement in their living conditions. The
Chinese key goal seems to be to bring back past
glory. Moreover, the Chinese are aware of their
national humiliation following two armed conflicts
in the mid-19th century. The first Opium War
(1839-42) between Britain and Chinese armed
forces, and the second Opium War (1856-60)
when Britain and France jointly attacked China,
and finally in 1860, the plundering and burning of
the Chinese Imperial Summer Palace. The Chinese
defeat marked the signing of unequal treaties that
facilitated the weakening of the Chinese sovereignty
and the collapse of the Qing Empire.
In 1980, China invited foreign capital, but
kept them under controlled capital outflows. As
China is launching a new growth model that
relies less on exports and Western markets,
and more on domestic consumption and
markets in developing countries.


 economic reforms, including capital liberalisation,

 deregulation and privatisation of state enterprises a decade

later. But unlike China, Russia did not follow capital
control, which resulted in a lot of capital outflows from

the country, also known as capital flight, and boosted
 corruption and money laundering. As a result of the

adoption of neoliberal economic reforms also known as
‘shock therapy’ in Russia in the early 1990s, the GDP

shrank by 25%, living conditions and life expectancy also
 reduced sharply. The country suffered de-industrialisation
  and began to rely on exports of natural resources such as
oil and gas.
 ­
 ­€
 ­
 ­
 ­‚

 ­­€
 ­­
 ­­
 ­­‚
 ­­
€€€
€€
€€
€€‚
€€
€ €
€ 
€ 
€ ‚
€ 

   III. China’s GDP Growth Since 1980s

 
  Prior to the initiation of economic reforms and trade
liberalization nearly 40 years ago, China maintained
a result, the Chinese economy grew rapidly, along with a policies that kept the economy very poor, stagnant, centrally
rise in employment, productivity and investment, and trade controlled, vastly inefficient, and relatively isolated from
ratio to GDP. Figure 3 indicates investment to GDP in the global economy. Since opening up to foreign trade
percentage from 1980 to 2018 for advanced economies and and investment and implementing free-market reforms in
Chinese economies. China has more than doubled its total 1978, China has been among the world's fastest-growing
investment to GDP in its economy compare to advanced economies (Siddiqui, 2015a).
economies. It also successfully diversified its economy With the maturing of the Chinese economy, GDP growth
by moving the people from agriculture to expanding the has slowed significantly, from 14.2% in 2007 to 6.6% in
manufacturing sector. China witnessed enormous growth in 2018, and that growth is projected by the International
the last four decades and the country has successfully moved Monetary Fund (IMF) to fall to 5.5% by 2024.
towards industrialisation and urbanisation and at present The Chinese government has slowed down its growth,
most of its export consists of manufactured goods. which is seen as normal during this phase of its economic
In contrast to rapid China’s economic expansion during development. This recent growth model of China relies on
the post-reform period, Russia launched pro-market scaling down fixed investment and exports, whilst placing
more emphasis on boosting domestic consumption and
innovation as new factors to promote economic growth.
It can be surmised that such policy reforms are required
in order to avoid hitting the "middle-income trap" when
countries achieve a certain economic level however,
afterwards begin to see a decline in their GDP growth
rates because of the failure to adopt new sources of
economic growth via innovation.
However, currently the Chinese government has
made innovation a top priority in its economic planning
through a number of policy initiatives, such as "Made
in China 2025," a plan announced in 2015 to upgrade
and modernize China's manufacturing in 10 key sectors
through extensive government assistance in order to make
China a major global player in these sectors. However,
such measures have raised concerns in the US that China
intends to use industrial policies to decrease the country's
reliance on foreign technology and to dominate global
markets. (Siddiqui, 2020b)

worldfinancialreview.com 43
China

 
  

IV. Growing Concerns in the US

In 2017, the Trump Administration launched a

 
Section 301 investigation of China's innovation


and intellectual property policies and found that
 
China’s rapid growth of economy was harmful to

U.S. economic interests. It subsequently raised 679
611
489
 233 380
tariffs by 25% on US$250 billion worth of imports 24 23 30 26 32 102 178 262
297 198 185 158
261 382


from China, while China increased tariffs, ranging
 
      
   
from 5% to 25% on US$110 billion worth of US



















  
imports. Such measures have adversely affected and
reduced bilateral trade since 2019. By mid-2019, Source: World Trade Organisation (WTO) and China’s Customs Department.
Donald Trump announced a further rise in tariffs  
    
  
on many more products from China. Obviously, 


  
the escalating trade conflict between the US and

China could have adverse consequences for the

Chinese economy.

Moreover, the high rate of growth for the last

four decades has resulted in a substantial increase

in bilateral commercial ties with the US. According

to the US trade statistics, total trade between the 
two countries grew from US$5 billion in 1980

to US$670 billion in 2019. China is currently   
the United States' largest merchandise trading  

partner, its third-largest export market, and its Source: The World Bank, 2019
largest source of imports. Many U.S. companies
have extensive operations in China in order to sell  





their products in Chinese and overseas markets by

taking advantage of low wages. Their operations in
China have helped many US corporations to take 
World Economic
Outlook Projects
advantage of low wages, remain internationally JPN
CHN
DEU
competitive and earn higher profits. Figure 4 shows

a sharp rise in China’s trade and the important GBR
element was that exports were larger than imports.
 USA


            
            

Source: IMF (2019)World Economic Outlook database. https://www.imf.org/en/

News/Articles/2019/08/09na080919-chinas-economic-outlook-in-six-charts

China has emerged as a major global economic

China is currently the United power. For example, it ranks first in terms of
economic size on the basis of PPP in value-added
States' largest merchandise manufacturing, merchandise trade, and holding
trading partner, its third- foreign exchange reserves. It is also important
largest export market, and its to highlight that value added manufacturing
proportion has risen faster than other major
largest source of imports. manufacturers such as US and Japan (see Figure 5)

44 The World Financial Review September - October 2020

 In 2016, the value of China's
(Siddiqui, 2015c). Figure 6 shows that China has
maintained positive current account balance while
US is in negative. China's growing global economic manufacturing on a gross value added
influence and trade surplus will have significant
implications for the US. While China is a large and
basis was 49.2% higher than the US level.
growing market for U.S. multinational companies,
the growth of Chinese businesses is seen by the US America. If successful, China's economic
as against its economic interests. initiatives could significantly expand export and
However, the emergence of China as a major investment markets for China and increase its
economic power has raised concerns among many influence globally.
US policymakers. (Siddiqui, 2018a) Some claim China has emerged as the world's largest
that China uses unfair trade practices, such as manufacturer according to the World Bank.
flooding US markets with cheap consumer goods The statistics show the gross value added of
by under valuing its currency and subsidising local manufacturing in China, the US, and Japan
producers. Such practices threaten jobs and incomes expressed in US$ in 2006 and 2016. Gross value
in the US. While others argue that China's growing added data reflect the actual value of manufacturing
use of industrial policies to promote and protect that occurred in the country (i.e., they subtract the
certain domestic industries, and its refusal to take value of intermediate inputs and raw materials
action against widespread infringement and theft used in production). In 2016, the value of China's
of US intellectual property rights (IPR) in China, manufacturing on a gross value added basis was
thus undermines free competition. (Siddiqui, 49.2% higher than the US level. In recent years,
2018b) Moreover, while China has become a large the manufacturing sector has played a considerably
and growing market for US exports, its trade and more important role in the Chinese economy than
investment policy limits opportunities for US it does for the US. In 2016, China's gross valued
companies to sell in the Chinese market. added manufacturing was equal to 28.7% of its
The Chinese government views a growing GDP, compared to 11.6% for the US.
economy as vital to maintaining social stability. During 1980 for example, on crucial
However, China faces a number of major developmental indicators such as literacy rate,
economic challenges that could dampen future China had 65%, whereas the Indian literacy was still
growth, including distortive economic policies that
have resulted in overreliance on fixed investment
and exports, rather than increasing domestic
consumption, subsidies for state-owned firms,
a weak banking system, widening income gaps,
growing environmental problems and so on. The
government has stressed that it will address these
issues and increase the role of the market in the
economy, boost innovation, encourage consumer
spending and combat corruption.
In recent years China has become increasingly
involved in outwards investments and building
greater economic ties to establish a contract
to access the supply of raw materials for its
growing industries, especially in Africa and Latin
America. It has also launched giant projects,
especially in infrastructure development. China's
‘One Belt and One Road’ initiative represents a
grand strategy by China to finance infrastructure
throughout Asia, Europe, Africa, and Latin

worldfinancialreview.com 45
China

only 44% for the same period. China promoted
industrialisation and the export of low-priced
manufactured products during the Cold War.
Then in the mid-1970s, the US was very keen
to use the ‘Chinese Card’ against the Soviet
Union. Additionally, to combat rising demands
for wages in the West, and to raise profits of the
over-accumulated petrodollar deposited in the
Western Banks found globalisation and foreign
investment a very attractive policy. Moreover,
throughout the East Asian countries, foreign
direct investment and export-led growth
became the “success model of growth”, soon
afterwards, China also adopted these policies
and negotiated in good terms beneficial for
China with foreign companies during the
height of the Cold War.
China adopted a pro-market policy, but still
the state was always to provide a helping hand,
wherever it was desired. A similar economic
policy approach was followed in the 1950s in
Japan and later on in the 1960s by South Korea.
Moreover, carrying out land reforms in both
countries ended land monopolies and broke
the power of rural elites. Alongside this, mass
availability of free primary education and basic
healthcare promoted welfare and reduced gender
inequality. The very early land reforms carried
out in South Korea and Taiwan, and earlier in
Japan, and of course in China in a very different
way, boosted agriculture production, increased
rural household incomes, land productivity and
reduced rural inequality dramatically. The rapid
industrialisation achieved in East Asia, and also
more recently in China, successfully diversified
the economy and thus lessened the burden on
the agricultural sector.
It seems that Deng Xiaoping was confident
enough to believe that China would not be
overwhelmed or undermined by the West.
Some researchers also stress that Deng Xiaoping
believed in ‘free market’ capitalism. I think
he was a pragmatist and nationalist, who was
willing to try different techniques to achieve
economic development in China. His main
concern was to improve the performance of the
Chinese economy and the living conditions of its
people. Deng had a background as Communist
Party leader, and experience in the military.
His economic thinking was never explicitly
expressed in a coherent way. In 1978 he set
out an agenda for the country, which included
prioritising domestic stability and modernising
the economy through economic reforms. He
initiated economic reforms which included
inviting foreign capital and technology
in a few regions of China to modernise
the economy and businesses, and increase
productivity and exports. Deng called it
“Socialism with Chinese Characteristics”.
China adopted V. Conclusion
a pro-market The phenomenal economic transformation of
policy, but the Chinese economy which has unfolded over
the last forty years or so was unseen before in
still the state human history. Understanding this turn in
was always global economic history is particularly impor-
to provide a tant since the country suffered two centuries
of Western domination since the 1820s. The
helping hand, incredible downfall of China in the second-half
wherever it was of the 19th century until the mid-20th century
desired. is attributed essentially to the ravages of colo-
nialism and imperialism that characterised that
whole period. China suffered de-industrialisa-
tion and repeated famines particularly because
of the colonial trade policies imposed by Britain
and followed by long periods of war.
China's rapid transformation from a poor
developing country to a major economic power
within four decades has been spectacular. From
1978, when China introduced pro-market

46 The World Financial Review September - October 2020

 economic reforms, until the end of 2018, its real
GDP grew at an average annual rate of nearly
10%.  China is no longer simply a regional
economic power, but in recent years has emerged
as a global economic power, especially after the
2008 global financial crisis, when China decided
to increase investment at domestic front, and more
recently, set itself up as a champion and supporter
of globalisation against the protectionist policies
of the US.
China also has launched and financed ‘One
Belt and One Road’, which is a massive global
investment project in infrastructure to boost trade
and economic growth. (Siddiqui, 2019a. Recent
Chinese overseas investment in infrastructure is
a long-term investment, unlike the US whose
investment is in the financial sector, both short-
term and speculative. (Siddiqui, 2019c) Since
the 1980s, in the US and the UK the role of
industrial capital has shrunk, while the role of
financial capital has increased. (Siddiqui, 2019b;
also see 2020c) Recently, China has confronted
Covid-19 and brought under control in a short
period, whilst the US and UK are still struggling
to bring under control. (Siddiqui, 2020d) In
the middle of the pandemic racial tension and
violence broke out in many major US cities
against the police brutalities.
Finally, China has no history of attacking other
countries and interfering in their internal matters.
While the US since the 1950s had just done
opposite, interfering in many of the developing
countries and often being involved in invading
Latin American and Middle Eastern countries
in the recent past. I hope that growing tension
between US and China will not escalate further
and become like Thucydides’ Trap. We must learn
from history, because unlike ancient Greece, both
economic giants are nuclear powers and any war
could endanger our whole planet.
Dr. Kalim Siddiqui is an economist,
specialising in International Political
Economy, Development Economics,
International Trade, and International
View publication stats
Economics. His work, which combines elements
of international political economy and develop-
ment economics, economic policy, economic
history and international trade, often challenges
prevailing orthodoxy about which policies
promote overall development in less developed
countries. Kalim teaches international economics
at the Department of Accounting, Finance and
Economics, University of Huddersfield, U.K.. He
has taught economics since 1989 at various
universities in Norway and U.K.
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