Introduction.

According to the definition of Arnold Ross and John wade (2015), they define system thinking as “a

set of synergistic analytic skills used to improve the capability of identifying and

understanding systems, predicting their behaviors, and devising modifications to them in order to

produce desired effects.” Together, these skills cooperate hence forming a system. system thinking

tools when adopted wisely and precisely provide solutions to emerging problems in our day to dat

lives. As a result, managers are deemed to adopt system thinking tools and apply them to the

management of both simple and complex projects. This paper is going to discuss how systems

management is applied in the management and control of the emerged Covid-19 pandemic. It will

discuss the three systems within the pandemic with regard to the Senge’s Eleven Laws of the fifth

discipline. Senge Peter (1990). it will also create and comment on a Causal Loop diagram and

finally describe the soft systems approach.

The three systems effects.

Abductive reasoning is a technique of bottom up logic that deliberates on existing theories so as to

elaborate and expound on a specific collection of observations. This method of estimation does not

guarantee relevance of a theory because the simplest and most likely theory is chosen among

existing multiples. It is best suited for incomplete sets of data and allows for unsure conclusions. In

medical evaluations, it is used to examine probable conditions that portray a set of symptoms. In an

attempt to slow down the infection rates of covid-19, policy makers are trying to make sure that as

much as they combat the virus and bring it under control, the economy remains stable. One of the

measures of combating the virus is by advicing people to operate at a one meter distance from each

other. However much the policy reduces the infection rate, it poses a great threat to businesses thus

the economy at large. Sahin et al. (2020). This logic thus brings us to the rule of cause and effect are

not closely related in time and space.

Backward induction is another type of system management that involves finding a potential solution

then start reasoning from that solution backwards to the problem itself. The paths that will propel

the reaching of a consensus are evaluated according to the set out goals and mapped out in a

backward fashion. It is a cumbersome and tedious approach because ther exist several paths that can

lead to a potential solution. This application in controlling the spread of covid-19 is evident in

contact tracing. When a person tests positive for covid-19, there is a high possibility that they have

interacted with other people whom they might have infected too. Their contacts are traced so that

the be monitored and tested. This is a type of backward induction. The contacts and the victim are

isolated in quarantine to reduce the spread of the virus. These acts may be detrimental because

quarantine limits people from social interaction with others, stigmatization and at times depression.

From this point of view, these measures might to be too harsh and feared most than the disease itself

hence the cure can be worse than the disease.

Forward thinking is the type of systems management that that anticipates the future so as to improve

decisions and strategies. Sankaran et al. (2010). Here, the manager is a leader of change hence he

prepares for it as he does not expect things to stay the same. In disease control and prevention,

infectious diseases are anticipated for therefore precautionary measures are taken in advance. More

medical equipment, personnel and protective attire is purchased. Isolation rooms and beds are made

available so as to create enough space for the infected. Media education on how to stay safe from

infection is rigorously done so as to educate the masses. Providing of masks and hand sanitizers

also plays a big role in combating the virus. All these actions however small and inferior they look

like greatly reduce the rate of viral transmission. These brings us to one of the eleven laws of the

fifth discipline which states that small changes can produce big results but the areas of highest

leverage are often the least obvious.

Causal loop diagram.

From the above image, there is a significant relationship between the two variables which are

prevention measures and death rates. Prevention measures represents all those activities taken to

combat the spread of covid-19 virus including quarantine, hand washing, mask wearing and

sanitizing. The behavior of a system is a result of how the variables act together. Therefore, when

one feedback loop is changed, it changes the emergent order. Baugh Littlejohns et al. (2018). It is

evident that the two variables affect each other. As seen above, when prevention measures are

reinforced and adhered to, the number of victims infected reduces significantly. Since deaths results

from the infected persons, when infections reduces so does deaths. This is because when the

variable at the tail increases, there is a proportionate decrease in the variable at the head thus these

two variables change in the opposite direction as indicated by the minus sign.

On the contrary, when the number of confirmed cases increases, the death rates also increase. This

is because these variables change in the same direction hence the plus sign. Death rate and business

reopening are variables that move in the opposite direction. As evidenced by the minus sign, an

increase in death rates results in a proportionate decrease in the efforts to open up the economy.
The loop formed between preventive measures and death rates is a balancing loop because it moves

the system in the direction towards equilibrium therefore the fluctuation will be around equilibrium.

Haraldsson V. (2004).

Soft systems approach.

Wicked problems are those challenges which are characterized by societal constraints, uncertainty,

ambiguity, conflict, complicatedness and interconnectedness. This is a feature of directional

complexity which require soft systems thinking to solve them. These systems are strategic

Assumption Surfacing and Testing (SAST), Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) and

the SAST scrutinize different options and make sure that a consensus is reached before taking

action. The main objective of SAST is to bring on board the assumptions that different people apply

to approach issues and challenge them. The procedure followed in SAST is first stakeholder

analysis, assumption surfacing and specification, assumption rating and finally the presentation and

debating of the assumption. In relation to the corona virus control measures, treatment, education

and prevention, SAST is very relevant in helping the formulation of techniques of solving emerging

challenges. As an example, most people are in disagreement on whether to open up the economy or

not. Each of them have very different and strong opinions of which they believe their opinions are

right. If they apply this system in finding a consensus, they will realize that though the health

effects of the virus are adverse, its better to open up the economy and provide all safety measures

necessary to the masses so that they cushion themselves against the effects of languishing in

poverty thus there is need of opening up the economy.

Soft System Methodology on the other hand presents a frame work followed by a problem

structuring team in tackling messy problems. According to Jackson M. (2019). The SSM approach

involves the following procedural guidelines: Finding out all the information about a problem

whether cultural or political, building up models that are relevant and purposeful, holding debates

based on the formulated models and finally acting in accordance with laid down protocol so as to
enable improvement. Relating to the current matter of corona virus at hand, SSM approach is also a

very significant tool to handle challenges emanating from from the pandemic. As evidenced, people

are being faced with many challenges including the international and interstate restrictions among

others have caused stock market volatility and have been prohibitive to international trading and

mobility. This has drastically degraded the world’s economy because individual nations hold their

own rules, policies, principles and regulations regarding the identification, reporting, containment,

management and referral of covid-19. (Pan American Inst. 2020). as a result, this brings difficulty in

agreeing on how the world’s economy will be opened. Although some countries are gradually

opening up their international boundaries, they have enacted tough measures regarding international

travels. With the use of SSM approach, the parent countries can collectively set up a model

regarding the contribution of foreigners in infection rate and agree with universal terms to adhere

after the opening up of international boundaries.

Conclusion.

Government intervention strategies will be in combating any form f viral infections in the long run.

However, good government decisions must be based on strategies that reduce infection rates while

safeguarding social, environmental and economic goals. With the use of system thinking techniques

described above to handle this wicked problem, we get to know that any system has goals that are

conflicting. Therefore, their use helps policy architects to formulate best practice interventions that

will help flatten the curve.

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