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Commentary
TREASURIES: There was a yearly scale bottom extension on the US 5Yr rates in 2012. This means rates really have bottomed for
a generation. Here is a quarterly picture of the 2012 low on a 2yr rate chart. The quarterly 2yr note had a compression event that
is now breaking down, and should continue for 6‐7 years.
US STOCKS: Monthly top extensions are widespread now. Combined with being 17% overvalued, the market is ripe for
correction. The next cycle turn events are due on Oct. 3rd.
CRUDE: There were a number monthly extension lows in crude last year so we expect prices to rebound for the next 1‐2
years…through 2017. Oil and Gas refining is compressed on a weekly scale.
COAL: There was a perfect monthly scale bottom extension early in 2016, so expect the multi‐year uptrend to continue.
GOLD: Long term, the bell rang on Gold at the end of Aug 2011 above $1900 with a YEARLY scale extension top. This forecast a
flat to down market that should continue through 2021….but it’s already gone down, and now the GDX has a quarterly scale
bottom. This implies Gold will stabilize at this level or drift slightly higher for many years.
1. Version 6.3 of ExtremeHurst has been rolled in as of Jan 24, 2017
2. Some price series with volume now are colored with VolumeTrend. VolumeTrend uses a Hurst adaptive average on an
accumulation/distribution index that only responds if volume is increasing. Green indicates uptrend and Red, downtrend,
and Gray means no detected trend.
3. Cycle turns are shown with a "\/" for a top, "/\" for a bottom, and an"=" if no prior trend is present.
4. The channel color spectrum is a gradient between Bullish=Green and Bearish=Red and is based on the result of the
Technical Rank neural net model trained to predict price action forward for about 20% of the channel length.
5. I made a presentation to the Market Technicians Association entitled: Financial Seismology: Exploiting the Hurst
Exponent. If you would like to watch the narrated slideshow, please follow the link
http://www.pfr.com/files/MTA_Presentation.wmv
6. Check out the latest slideshow called “The Self‐Driving Portfolio” at http://pfr.com/files/The_Self‐Driving_Portfolio.pdf
7. Trade management stops and targets are handled by our Trident™ statistical trading algorithm
Precision Turn™ 2017 Cycle Events
Dates of clusters and large‐scale turn events for 2017:
Treasury 30Yr Bond has large scale turns on, Jan 4, Mar 30, Jun 9, Jul 10, Sep 8, Nov 13, Dec 8
Gold has large scale turns on May 15, Aug 25, Sep 25, Nov 13, Dec 31
Crude Oil has large scale turns on Jan 18, Mar 13, Apr 17, Jun 16, Aug 25, Oct 11
CRB Index has large scale turns on Jan 6, Mar 20, May 26, Aug 25, Oct 12, Nov 13, Dec 15
DJIA has large scale turns on Jan 4, Apr 11, May 9, Jun 6, Sep 7, Nov 13, Dec 28
Russell 3000 Stocks weekly scale turn clusters on Jan 2, Apr 1, May 24, Jun 28, Sep 7, Dec 20
Currency weekly scale turn clusters on Mar 28, May 24, Jun 26, Aug 9, Oct 3, Nov 9
Price Wizard™ Aggregate Valuation (v5)