Problem Set D: Attempt History

6/22/2021 Problem Set D: UGBA 104-LEC-001A-Introduction to Business Analytics (Summer 2021)
 This quiz has been regraded; your new score reflects 0 questions that were affected.
Problem Set D
Due Jun 23 at 10:30am Points 24 Questions 12
Available until Jul 2 at 6pm Time Limit None Allowed Attempts Unlimited
Take the Quiz Again
Attempt History
Attempt Time Score Regraded
KEPT Attempt 7 less than 1 minute 22 out of 24 24 out of 24
LATEST Attempt 7 less than 1 minute 22 out of 24 24 out of 24
Attempt 6 less than 1 minute 20 out of 24 22 out of 24
Attempt 3 1 minute 20 out of 24 18 out of 24
Attempt 2 6 minutes 16 out of 24 16 out of 24
Attempt 1 2,439 minutes 10 out of 24 10 out of 24
 Correct answers are hidden.
Score for this attempt: 24 out of 24

Submitted Jun 22 at 1:17pm
This attempt took less than 1 minute.
PART I
Brinkley Corporation needs to estimate the profit for a new product. Profit
is selling price minus cost. The selling price for the product will be
$45/unit. The cost of the new product will comprise procurement, labor,
and transportation costs.
https://bcourses.berkeley.edu/courses/1504853/quizzes/2358338 1/10
Procurement
25% probability that procurement cost will be $10/unit
Labor
10% probability that labor cost will be $20/unit
Transportation
75% probability that transportation cost will be $3/unit
25% probability that transportation cost will be $5/unit
Question 1 2 / 2 pts
What is the estimated profit for the new product?

Hint: Use Monte Carlo simulation with 1,000 trials to calculate a range of
profits and find the average.
about $3 per unit
about $5 per unit
about $7 per unit
about $12 per unit
What is the probability that profit will be less than $5 per unit?
Hint: Use Monte Carlo simulation with 1,000 trials to calculate a range of
profits and find the appropriate percentile.
about 3%
about 9%
about 15%
about 25%
PART II
To prepare for the upcoming holiday season, Fresh Toy Company (FTC)
designed a new doll called The Dougie that teaches children how to
dance. The fixed cost to produce the doll is $100,000. The variable cost,
which includes material, labor, and shipping costs, is $34 per doll. During
the holiday selling season, FTC will sell the dolls for $42 each. If FTC
overproduces the dolls, the excess dolls will be sold in January through a
distributor who has agreed to pay FTC $10 per doll. Demand for new toys
during the holiday selling season is uncertain. The normal probability
distribution with an average of 60,000 dolls and a standard deviation of
15,000 is assumed to be a good description of the demand. FTC has
tentatively decided to produce 60,000 units (the same as average
demand), but it wants to conduct a Monte Carlo simulation analysis
regarding this production quantity before finalizing the decision.
If the decision is to produce 60,000 dolls, then what is the estimated total
profit?
about $60000
about $138000
about $187000
about $300000
about $380000
If the decision is to produce 70,000 dolls, then what is the estimated

probability of a loss (i.e., probability that profit is less than zero)?
about 10%
about 20%
about 30%
about 40%
about 50%
If the decision is to produce 50,000 dolls, then what is the estimated

probability of a shortage (i.e., probability that demand exceeds
production)?
about 25%
about 33%
about 50%
about 67%
about 75%
about 99%
If the decision is to produce 40,000 dolls, then what is the maximum

profit?
$200000
$210000
$220000
$230000
$240000
$250000
PART III
The Iowa Energy are scheduled to play against the Maine Red Claws in
an upcoming game in the National Basketball Association (NBA) G
League. Because a player in the NBA G League is still developing his
skills, the number of points he scores in a game can vary substantially.
Assume that each player’s point production can be represented as an
integer uniform random variable with the ranges provided in the following
table:
Player lowa Energy Maine Red Claws
1 [5,20] [7,12]
2 [7,20] [15,20]
3 [5,10] [10,20]
4 [10,40] [15,30]
5 [6,20] [5,10]
6 [3,10] [1,20]
7 [2,5] [1,4]
8 [2,4] [2,4]
For example, we assume Iowa Energy player #7 will score 2, 3, 4, or 5

points, each with equal probability.
Develop a spreadsheet model that simulates the points scored by each

team and the difference in their point totals. Include 16 uncertain
variables.
What is the average of points scored by the Iowa Energy?
about 80 points
about 85 points
about 90 points
about 95 points
about 100 points
What is the standard deviation of points scored by the Iowa Energy?
about 10 points
about 12 points
about 14 points
about 16 points
about 18 points
Let Point Differential = Iowa Energy points − Maine Red Claw points.
What is the average of the point differential between the Iowa Energy and
Maine Red Claws?
about +3 points
about +1 point
about 0
about -1 point
about -3 points
Question 10 Original Score: 0 / 2 pts Regraded Score: 2 / 2 pts
 This question has been regraded.
What is the probability that the Iowa Energy scores more points than the
Maine Red Claws does?
Hint: Track an output variable that indicates whether Iowa wins (1) or Iowa
losses (0). The average of a distribution of 1’s and 0’s is the probability of
the 1’s.
about 10%
about 20%
about 30%
about 40%
about 50%
PART IV
The wedding date for a couple is quickly approaching, and the wedding
planner must provide the caterer an estimate of how many people will
attend the reception so that the appropriate quantity of food is prepared
for the buffet. 37 invitations have been sent out.
7 of the invitees RSVP that they will each not attend.

10 of the invitees RSVP that they will each attend alone.
15 of the invitees RSVP that they will each attend with a companion.
5 of the invitees did not RSVP.
The number of guests that actually attend does not necessarily

correspond to the number of RSVPs. Based on her experience, the
wedding planner knows that it is extremely rare for people to attend a
wedding if they RSVPed that they will not attend. Therefore, the wedding
planner will assume that no one from these 7 invitations will attend. For
each of the 10 invitees that RSVP attending alone, there is a 75% chance
of attending alone, a 20% chance of not attending, and a 5% chance of
attending with a companion. For each of the 15 invitees who RSVP
attending with a companion, there is a 90% chance of attending with a
companion, a 5% chance of attending alone, and a 5% chance of not
attending. For each of the 5 invitees who have not responded, the
wedding planner assumes that there is an 80% chance of not attending, a
15% chance of attending alone, and a 5% chance of attending with a
companion.
Develop a spreadsheet simulation model to estimate the number of

guests that will attend the reception. Include 30 uncertain variables, some
for the numbers of actual attendees associated with RSVP 1, some for the
numbers of actual attendees associated with RSVP 2, and some for the
numbers of actual attendees associated with no RSVP. The uncertainties
can be characterized by discrete distributions.
What is the expected (i.e., average) number of guests that will attend the
reception?
less than 35
35 or 36
37 or 38
39 or 40
41 or 42
43 or 44
more than 44
What is the minimum number of guests for which the caterer should
prepare meals so that there is at least a 90% chance that there will be
enough meals?
Hint: Use the 90th percentile statistic to track the attendance output
variable.
less than 35
35
37
39
41
43
more than 43
Quiz Score: 24 out of 24

Problem Set D: Attempt History

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Description:

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Problem Set D: Attempt History

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

6/22/2021 Problem Set D: UGBA 104-LEC-001A-Introduction to Business Analytics (Summer 2021)

Take the Quiz Again

LATEST Attempt 7 less than 1 minute 22 out of 24 24 out of 24

Attempt 6 less than 1 minute 20 out of 24 22 out of 24

Attempt 5 less than 1 minute 20 out of 24 22 out of 24

Attempt 4 less than 1 minute 20 out of 24 22 out of 24

Attempt 3 1 minute 20 out of 24 18 out of 24

Attempt 2 6 minutes 16 out of 24 16 out of 24

Attempt 1 2,439 minutes 10 out of 24 10 out of 24

 Correct answers are hidden.

Score for this attempt: 24 out of 24

What is the estimated profit for the new product?

about $3 per unit

about $5 per unit

about $7 per unit

about $12 per unit

If the decision is to produce 70,000 dolls, then what is the estimated

If the decision is to produce 50,000 dolls, then what is the estimated

If the decision is to produce 40,000 dolls, then what is the maximum

Player lowa Energy Maine Red Claws

For example, we assume Iowa Energy player #7 will score 2, 3, 4, or 5

Develop a spreadsheet model that simulates the points scored by each

What is the average of points scored by the Iowa Energy?

about 100 points

What is the standard deviation of points scored by the Iowa Energy?

Question 10 Original Score: 0 / 2 pts Regraded Score: 2 / 2 pts

 This question has been regraded.

7 of the invitees RSVP that they will each not attend.

The number of guests that actually attend does not necessarily

Develop a spreadsheet simulation model to estimate the number of

Quiz Score: 24 out of 24

You might also like