THE National Assembly session was 

prorogued on Friday for an

indefinite period without passing the crucial finance bill that is a
requirement for Pakistan to re-enter the IMF programme. The
Fund’s board is scheduled to meet in Washington, D.C. on Jan 12
and it was expected that the government would ensure the bill is
passed before then. However, this seems difficult now since
officials say the National Assembly session may be called by the
middle of the month.

This would imply that the government aims to persuade the IMF either to
postpone its meeting or approve the programme on the commitment that the
bill will be passed in the next session of the Assembly. The information
minister has explained the delay by saying the bill has been sent to the Senate
which can take two weeks to either add its recommendations or reject it.

Read: Govt in no hurry to pass mini-budget before IMF meeting

However, it is also being reported that the government’s allies are still not on
board with the bill. Most agree that if passed, the bill will trigger another
round of inflation and extract a steep political cost for the government and its
allied parties. With the second round of LG polls in KP and also in Punjab due
in the coming weeks, there is genuine concern among the ruling parties about
a backlash from the voters. This concern is not misplaced if the results of
the first round of KP’s LG polls are anything to go by. If the allies dither, the
government could have problems with parliamentary numbers. The
proroguing of the National Assembly may be aimed at buying time so the
government can muster the strength to get the bill passed. A failure to do so
could trigger existential concerns for the government. The opposition too may
use this time to woo the allies in a bid to defeat the bill.

The government has never been shy of bulldozing bills when it has had the
requisite numbers. The passage of nearly three dozen bills through a joint
session of parliament recently is a case in point. The government did not
bother to allow a debate on the bills and preferred to use its brute majority to
bulldoze them through the House. The fact that it is going slow with the
finance bill may therefore indicate a degree of nervousness about the
numbers.

The opposition finds itself in a convenient position. If the government fails in

passing the bill, that would be considered a no-confidence move and the
government would have to prove that it still enjoys the support of a majority.
If it passes the bill, the political fallout would be devastating. This may be one
reason why the opposition does not appear to be in any urgency to gather the
numbers required to stop the bill. Politics in parliament is now being played
for high stakes.