Special Issue Article

Advances in Mechanical Engineering

2017, Vol. 9(8) 1–7
Ó The Author(s) 2017
Determination of the scope of DOI: 10.1177/1687814017717184
journals.sagepub.com/home/ade
traffic incident

Genghua Ma1, Changjiang Zheng2 and Xia Wan3

Abstract
The scope of traffic incidents impacts the performance of traffic incident impact assessment. The inadequate impact
scope of the traffic incident will weaken the performance of the traffic incident impact assessment and increase the cost
of travel time and payment. This article mainly analyzes road enclosure method, plume model method, and spherical
extrapolation method to determine the scope of impact of traffic incident. Advantages and limitations of these three
models are presented. Based on these analyses, some improvements are proposed on the basis of the existing situation.

Keywords
Traffic incident, scope, road enclosure method, plume model method, spherical extrapolation method

Date received: 25 August 2016; accepted: 1 June 2017

Academic Editor: Hai Xiang Lin

Introduction on the length of queue length information, vehicle arri-

At present, research on the scope of traffic incident1 is
divided into qualitative research and quantitative
research. Qualitative research, generally coming with a
theoretical framework, mainly proposed some
framework-oriented actions and policies based on the
impact of traffic incident. Quantitative study by con-
trast does the related research on the diffusion range of
traffic incident space in accordance with the scope of
the study.
The diffusion range of vehicle queue is estimated by
the improved cumulative arrival departure model, and
the idea of the Lawson et al.2 method is proposed to
obtain the congestion diffusion range. The model also
assumes that the arrival and departure rates of vehicles
are constant and are not suitable for the estimation of
supersaturated intersections. JB Sheu et al.3 define six
random traffic state parameters based on lane change
behavior to predict the queue length at the incident
occurrence point. This model is only applicable to the
study of congestion caused by traffic incidents in a
lane, without consideration of queue length overflow
upstream detector. A fuzzy queue length model is pro-
posed by LP Fu and B Hellinga.4 The model is based
val information, and lane closing information to pre-
dict the vehicle queue length at the location of traffic
incident. The model can accurately predict the queue
length caused by traffic incident. M Baykal-Gürsoy
et al.5 proposed a method to calculate the queue length
caused by traffic incident on the road using M/M/C
queuing model and studied the change of vehicle queue
length under different traffic incident conditions.
By learning the method of determining the research
scope of traffic impact assessment, a study found that
the methods for determining the scope of traffic inci-
dent mainly include road enclosure method, plume
model method, and spherical extrapolation method.
1
College of Harbour, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Hohai University,
Nanjing, China
2
College of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Hohai University,
Nanjing, China
3
Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of
Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI, USA
Corresponding author:
Changjiang Zheng, College of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Hohai
University, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, China.
Email: zhenghhu@sina.com

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2 Advances in Mechanical Engineering

Table 1. Recommended traffic impact assessment study range of Housing and Urban-Rural Construction industry standard.

The ratio of the scale of construction Traffic impact assessment range

project and the threshold

\2 Trunk road enclosed area around the

construction project
Mega-cities 2–5, other cities and towns 2–3 Arterial road or expressway enclosed area
around the construction project
Mega-cities  5, other cities  3 Second arterial road or expressway enclosed
area around the construction project

Figure 1. Wind of continuous point source diffusion and traffic incident diffusion schematic illustrations.

Road enclosure method model and is a air quality model which describes the
6 quantitative relationship between pollution and pollu-
The road enclosure method is mainly in the place of
tant concentrations in the atmosphere.
traffic incident center, extending to the periphery in all
The impact of traffic incident on the surrounding
directions to the nearest trunk roads (including second-
road network is similar to that of the poisonous gas and
ary road, arterial road, and expressway or freeway).
exhaust gas into the atmosphere, composed by many
Since the road enclosure method in practical applica-
units. The system is a stable and open system,8 in which
tions is simple and practical, it is currently widely used
each unit is equivalent to a circle and is assigned to the
in China. In November 2007, according to the notice
entire scope of the study. Under the impact of traffic
from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural
incident, it is diffused in the direction of turbulent flow
Development, China Academy of Urban Planning and
field in the same state. The impact of traffic incident is
Design and several Chinese Transportation Research
related to the type and intensity of traffic incidents and
institutions stipulated the method for determining the
proportional to the intensity of traffic incident. The
research scope of traffic impact assessment together, as
impact of the road or intersection within the scope of
shown in Table 1.
the impact is equal to the impact of the traffic incident
The basic idea is that traffic incident is divided into
unit (Figure 1.). In view of this similarity, the plume
three levels of impact. According to the specific circum-
model is introduced for determining the maximum dis-
stances of each city and the surrounding traffic condi-
tance under different impacts degree of the traffic inci-
tions at the incident, on the basis of Table 1, each city
dent on the surrounding road network.
can make appropriate adjustment of traffic incident
The method is based on synergetic theory9 and
influencing the range.
derived as follows.
Infinite space diffusion equation of wind of continu-
Plume model method ous point source is as follows

The plume model method, also known as the Gaussian ∂C ∂2 ∂2

plume model,7 is one of the atmospheric dispersion m = Ky c + Kz c ð1Þ
∂x ∂y2 ∂z 2
models which belongs to environment mathematical
Ma et al. 3

pffiffiffi pffiffiffi pffiffiffi pffiffiffi pffiffiffi pffiffiffi

Its normal solution (normal concentration distribu- range is ( ax, 2 ax, 3 ax, 4 ax, 5 ax, 6 ax), and r
tion formula) in the application of traffic incident is as obeys the normal distribution.10
follows If the confidence p coefficient
ffiffiffi pisffiffiffi 0.95, the confidence
" !# interval of r is (2:807 ax, 4:193 ax).
q 1 y2 z2 According
pffiffiffi to the confidence interval, when
C(x, y, z) = exp  + 2 ð2Þ r = 4 ax, we can use the average influence degree of
2pmsy sz 2 s2y sz
the delayed traffic volume to evaluate the influence
where C(x, y, z) means the impact of traffic incident at degree of the area that is x away from the traffic inci-
point (x, y, z); x is defined as the diffusion direction of dent. Equation (7) is further simplified as follows
traffic volume; y, z are the vertical and horizontal dis- pffiffi
ð
4 ðax 2p
tance from the location of the traffic incident; q is the 1
impact of the source of traffic incident; m is the distri-  ð xÞ =
Cd = C pffiffiffi C ðx, rÞdrdu
2p4 ax
bution speed of the delaying traffic volume generated 0 0 ð7Þ
by the traffic incident; and sy and sz are the distribu- eQ
tion parameters in the direction of y, z, respectively, and = pffiffiffiffi 2
4 px
they are both function of x.
Using the hypothesis sy = sz = s, r2 = y2 + z2 , With the help of the gravitational field theory
thus
kP
  Q= ð8Þ
q r 2 x2d
C ðx, rÞ = exp ð3Þ
2pms2 2s2
where P means potential energy and xd is the maximum
pffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
According to Robert formula: s = 2kx, k is the dif- diffusion distance.
fusion constant, then If the potential energy of the traffic incident depends
on its severity, then there is an equation (9)
 2
q r sffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
C ðx, rÞ = exp ð4Þ
4pxkm 4kx 3 ePa
xd = pffiffiffiffi ð9Þ
4 p Cd
In order to carry out the estimation, we make further
assumptions, then where P means potential energy (the severity of the traf-
 2 fic incident) and Cd is the extreme impact that traffic
q r incidents have on the surrounding road network.
C ðx, rÞ = 2
exp ð5Þ
4pax m 4ax2 While traffic incidents make the value of volume to
capacity ratio be above 0.75, the comfort degree of
Because the diffusion constant is only a function of road users will significantly decrease, the traffic will be
x, based on the dimensional analysis, in the formula: unstable and congested. The maximum affected dis-
k = ax, a is a constant.10 tance is as follows
Assume that after the diffusion of the delaying traf-
fic volume, the unit in the boundary point along the x sffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
3 ePa
direction, within the scope of traffic incident, the xd = b pffiffiffiffi ð10Þ
impact of traffic incident unit on the road, or the inter- 4 p Cd
section is equal to the average impact C of the unit
where b is a parameter which can be 1, 0.3, or 0.05; a
before the diffusion of the delaying traffic volume.
is a proportional constant, and dependent on the type
Equation (6) is further simplified as follows
and severity of traffic incidents, with a value range
 2 (0.15, 1).
eQ r
C ðx, rÞ = 2 exp ð6Þ
px 4ax2
Spherical extrapolation method
where Q means the impact that the traffic incident unit
has on the surrounding road network and e is the diffu- When using the spherical extrapolation method,11 we
sion coefficient of the delaying traffic volume. consider the location of the traffic incident as the center
Regarding the allocation of the delaying traffic vol- and divide the surrounding road network into several
ume produced by traffic incident, we only consider the circles. Then, we turn outward in circles and get the
allocation of x and y. In other words, z = 0, r2 = y2 , r traffic volume of each road. Finally, we determine the
is spreading radius, in order to satisfy the accuracy outer circle of traffic incident according to the evalua-
requirements, the value cannot be too large. The value tion index and the threshold.
4 Advances in Mechanical Engineering
First, let us make some assumptions:
1. Each road’s traffic flow is distributed evenly.
2. The road’s traffic capacity can meet the added
traffic demands by traffic incident.
The assumption is derived from the following idea:
on the road farther away from the traffic incident area,
the distribution of traffic flow should be less and more
uneven, and on the road near the traffic incident area,
the distribution of traffic flow should be more concen-
trated and more uniform. Then, within the scope of
traffic incident, it can be considered that the traffic flow
entering the traffic incident area is almost evenly dis-
tributed. And in reality, the road capacity could nor-
mally satisfy the additional traffic demand caused by
the traffic incident.
As shown in Figure 2, the traffic incident happens
on point O, it is assumed that the traffic incident and
road network could satisfy the above assumptions.
All road on the road network in the picture can be
divided into two types. One is the circle road (sur-
rounding the location of the traffic incident, consisting
of a closed circle, balancing the traffic flow by going a
roundabout route, avoiding blocking the road between
circles one by one), such as Ai Ai + 1 , Bm Bm + 1 , .
Another is the road between circles (one of the two
endpoints is near the traffic incident area and another
is away from the traffic incident area. Traffic volume is
mainly distributed on the road between circles), such as
A2 O, B3 A2 , C4 B3 , . The road between circles is the
control road which the delaying traffic volume pro-
duced by the traffic incident must go through.
For the road network, from the first
j(j = 1, 2, 3, 4, . . . ) circle outside the point O directly
Figure 2. The road network of spherical extrapolation method.
entering the first j  1 circle, the number of the road
between circles is 8j  4, assuming V as the delaying
traffic volume produced by traffic incident in peak
hours and Vmax as the maximum allowable traffic vol-
ume of the road between circles from the first j circle
entering the first j  1 circle at the specified service
level. Then, the relationship is as follows
V V
(8j4) (8j4)
k= = ð11Þ
Vmax c3r
where c means capacity and r is the load level corre-
sponding to the service level in different locations or on
different roads.
If the k value is higher than the preset threshold
value K (e.g. 3%), roads from the first j circle entering
the first j  1 circle will be included in the scope of traf-
fic incident. And it should continue to extrapolate until
the k value is lower than the threshold K on the road
from the first j + p (p = 0, 1, 2, . . . ) circle entering the
first j + p  1 circle. The scope includes all roads
within the first j + p  1 circle, but it does not include
the first j + p  1 circle road. The boundary of the
scope is the road from the first j + p  1 circle entering
the j + p  2 circle. Eventually, the scope includes all
roads where the k value exceeds the threshold value
and the traffic delay caused by the traffic incident is
serious.
The road capacity in the actual road network is dif-
ferent, but spherical extrapolation method is based on
the assumptions of uniform distribution. Within the
scope of traffic incident, the delaying traffic volume is
averaged by the road between the same circle.
In view of this, we propose an improved spherical
extrapolation method on the basis of the original sphe-
rical extrapolation method in this article, whose core
idea is: assuming that each road saturation tends to be
identical, in accordance with the residual capacity of
the road between the same circle (actual capacity minus
existing traffic volume) to assign different weight to
each road, according to the weights to distribute the
delaying traffic volume caused by traffic incident
instead of uniform distribution. Figure 3 is a schematic
diagram of this method.
Concrete steps for this method: as shown in
Figure 3, for the traffic incident point O, first, the gen-
erated traffic volume first outflows from the first con-
trol cross section (A circle in the figure) outside the
point O. Then, the traffic flow passed through the first
control cross section outflows from the second control
cross section (B circle in the figure) outside the point O.
Then, it uses the same method to find the third control
cross section (C circle in the figure), and so on.
It is necessary to calculate each road’s traffic capac-
ity and get each road’s background traffic flow in peak
hours on the basis of determining the type of roads.
Ma et al.
Figure 3. The schematic diagram of improved envelops extrapolation method.
Then, we can determine the weight by the residual
capacity of the road between the same circle and take it
as the basis to gradually calculate the traffic volume of
each road, which is shown in equation (12)
Ci  V i
DVi = P 3 vi = P 3 P ð12Þ
i Ci  Vi
where i is the ith road between the same circle, DVi
means the distribution of the delaying traffic volume
produced by traffic incident on the ith road between
the same circle, P is the delaying traffic volume caused
by traffic incident, Ci is the traffic capacity on the ith
road between the same circle, Vi is the background traf-
fic on the ith road between the same circle, Ci  Vi is
the residual capacity on the ith road between the same
circle, and vi is the weight on the ith road between the
same circle.
However, distribution of the delaying traffic volume
produced by traffic incident considers not only the
V =C on the road tending to be identical but also the
numerical value of the V =C on the road. The delaying
traffic volume produced by traffic incident is com-
pletely distributed in accordance with the residual
5
capacity on the road, and it has a great gap with the
actual traffic distribution. Generally speaking, the traf-
fic volume attracted by roads which have large V =C is
relatively large. Therefore, the weight is related to resi-
dual capacity Ci  Vi and saturation V =C on the road.
Therefore, the above formula can be further revised as
follows
ðCi  Vi Þ CVii
DVi = P 3 vi = P 3 ð13Þ
Si ðCi  Vi Þ CVii
In Figure 3, if the DVi is as small as possible in the
third control section (C circle in the figure), the scope
of traffic incident will include all roads within the third
control section (C circle in the figure), excluding the
third control section. In practice, we compare DVi with
a preset threshold for determining the scope of traffic
incident. There is no uniform standard for the determi-
nation of the threshold value. Theoretically, it should
be as small as possible, and the threshold should be
determined according to the specific situation.
In addition, to a certain extent, we can also make up
further for the deficiency of spherical extrapolation
method by predicting the following two aspects: on one
6 Advances in Mechanical Engineering
hand, it is to estimate the rough proportion of the dis-
tribution of the delaying traffic volume produced by
traffic incident in different main direction. On the other
hand, the delaying traffic volume produced by traffic
incident dissipates with the distance. For the former, we
can roughly speculate by the distribution of the popula-
tion and traffic attraction intensity of the land around
the traffic incident. For the latter, according to the rela-
tionship between travel frequency and distance, we can
deduct dissipation of the delaying traffic volume pro-
duced by traffic incident between circles in proportion.
Summary
Currently, determining traffic impact scope is mainly
for determination of static changes (such as construc-
tion facilities), and the sudden traffic incident scope’s
determination is scarce. This article studies the determi-
nation of the scope of traffic incident and proposes new
ideas which are conducive to relieve traffic congestion
and reduce losses.
The previous method has high precision, but in the
beginning, it has certain roughness in the determination
of candidate regions. At the same time, the method is
complicated and needs a large amount of high-precision
data, which is not real-time and is not good for the traf-
fic dispersion work.
The following three methods all have their own
advantages and limitations. In terms of the road enclo-
sure method, it can be used directly and quickly. The
road enclosure method has less restriction and saves
time and cost. But its subjectivity is stronger and it also
lacks the necessary theoretical basis. Regarding the
plume model method, its application condition has a
bigger gap with the reality and to a certain extent it is
unreasonable. But the method is simple and easy to be
programmed into software, which can be applied to the
determination of the scope of traffic incident after in-
depth development. In terms of the spherical extrapola-
tion method, although it has some shortcomings, it has
the clear road network structure and the simple model
forms. Because of its convenient calculation and conve-
nient operation, it can guarantee real-time processing
of traffic incident to a certain extent. When using the
spherical extrapolation method to determine the scope
of traffic incident, compared with previous method, it
does not need to consider the road impedance which is
a complicated problem, and we can start from the eas-
ily calculated and observed saturation index, and that
is a breakthrough.
Declaration of conflicting interests
The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with
respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this
article.
Funding
The author(s) received no financial support for the research,
authorship, and/or publication of this article.
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