PROFIT MANAGEMENT WITH MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

Reservation Limit 14
Reservation Requested 12
Reservation accepted 12
Numver show up 11
Number overbook 1
Seats Remaining 0
No of Walk ups 1
Walk up accepted 0
Total seats occupied 10
Revenue 395
Cost 175
Profit 220 Number
Occupancy Rate 1 0
1
2
Van's passenger capacity 10 Run Profit Occup Rate
Min reservation request 7 1 180 1
Max reservation request 14 2 190 0.6
Proby person show up 0.8 3
Reservation deposit amount $10 4
Balance of ticket price $25 5
Walk-up ticket price $50 6
Cost per overbooked person $75 7
Fixed cost per trip $100 8
9
Walk up Distribution 10
Probability RN Int LL RN Int UL Mean Profit
0.3 0 0.3 Avg OR
0.45 0.3 0.75
0.25 0.75 1
 TreePlan Student License

0.4
favorable
1
0 99.5

conduct MR

-10 74.6

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 0.6
Unfavorable
2
0 58

2
80

Manufacture

0 75

Don't conduct MR
2
0 80

Purchase

0 80

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 0.45 For Education Only
HIGH
190
200 190

0.4
Manufacture Medium
50
0 99.5 60 50

0.15
low
-40
-30 -40

0.45
High
130
140 130

0.4
Purchase Medium
70
0 88 80 70

0.15
Low
10
20 10

0.2
High
190
200 190

0.4
Manu Medium
50
0 42 60 50

0.4

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 Low
-40
-30 -40

0.2
High
130
140 130

0.4
Purchase Medium
70
0 58 80 70

0.4
Low
10
20 10

0.3
High
200
200 200

0.4
Medium
60
60 60

0.3
Low
-30
-30 -30

0.3
High
140
140 140

0.4
Medium
80
80 80

0.3
Low
20
20 20

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 ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind NS
0 0 TreePlan 0 0 0D 2
0 1 0 0E 2
0 2 0 0D 2
0 3 0 2E 3
0 4 0 2E 3
0 5 3T 0
0 6 3T 0

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 0 7 3T 0
0 8 4T 0
0 9 4T 0
0 10 4T 0
0 11 1D 2
0 12 1D 2
0 13 0 11 E 3
15 14 0 11 E 3
0 15 0 12 E 3
0 16 0 12 E 3
0 17 13 T 0
0 18 13 T 0
0 19 13 T 0
23 20 14 T 0
24 21 14 T 0
25 22 14 T 0
23 15 T 0
24 15 T 0
25 15 T 0
26 16 T 0
27 16 T 0
28 16 T 0

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S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col Mark
1 2 0 0 0 51 1 1
11 12 0 0 0 29 5 1
3 4 0 0 0 74 5 1
5 6 7 0 0 67 9 1
8 9 10 0 0 82 9 1
0 0 0 0 0 62 13 1
0 0 0 0 0 67 13 1

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 0 0 0 0 0 72 13 1
0 0 0 0 0 77 13 1
0 0 0 0 0 82 13 1
0 0 0 0 0 87 13 1
13 14 0 0 0 14 9 1
15 16 0 0 0 44 9 1
17 18 19 0 0 7 13 1
20 21 22 0 0 22 13 1
23 24 25 0 0 37 13 1
26 27 28 0 0 52 13 1
0 0 0 0 0 2 17 1
0 0 0 0 0 7 17 1
0 0 0 0 0 12 17 1
0 0 0 0 0 17 17 1
0 0 0 0 0 22 17 1
0 0 0 0 0 27 17 1
0 0 0 0 0 32 17 1
0 0 0 0 0 37 17 1
0 0 0 0 0 42 17 1
0 0 0 0 0 47 17 1
0 0 0 0 0 52 17 1
0 0 0 0 0 57 17 1

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 TreePlan Student License 0.2
S1

500 500

0.5
D1 S2

0 430 780 780

0.3
S3

-200 -200

1
430

0.7
Outcome 6

0 440

D2

0 428

0.3
Outcome 7

400 400

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 For Education Only

500

780

-200

0.2 Decision Proby 0.2 0.5

Outcome 8 D1 500 780
700 D2 0.7 700 900
700 700 0.3 400

0.5
Outcome 9
900
900 900

0.3
Outcome 10
-500
-500 -500

400

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 0.3
-200
-500

TreePlan Student License, For Education Only www.TreePlan.com

 ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind
0 TreePlan 0 0 0D
1 0 0E
2 0 0E
3 1T
4 1T
5 1T
6 2E

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 7 2T
8 6T
9 6T
10 6T

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NS S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col Mark
2 1 2 0 0 0 17 1 1
3 3 4 5 0 0 7 5 1
2 6 7 0 0 0 27 5 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 7 9 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 12 9 1
3 8 9 10 0 0 22 9 1

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 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 9 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 17 13 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 22 13 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 27 13 1

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