Double-dip: Japan facing a possible emergency situation

Big retailers might be hit arduous if they're asked to close during the Golden Week holidays that begin
next week.

(Multiple issues)
Japan’s government is anticipated to put Japanese capital and 3 western prefectures beneath a 3rd state
of emergency that might last for regarding 2 weeks, in keeping with media reports, underscoring its
struggle to trot out a surge in new COVID-19 case numbers.

Some analysts say the decision, expected to be made as early as Friday, could push Japan into recession
if retailers are asked to shut throughout the Golden Week holidays, that begin next week and run
through early May.

A revived state of emergency and a slow vaccine rollout would conjointly forged doubt on whether or
not Japanese capital will host the Olympic Games in July, despite Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s
assurances it'll proceed as planned. Tokyo 2020 organisers aforesaid a police officer who worked with
the torch relay in western Kagawa prefecture had tested positive for the virus

Another high-profile event, this year’s Tokyo Motor Show, are going to be off because of the pandemic,
Japan Automobile makers Association Chairman Akio Toyoda said.

(Cases at the rise)

With thousands of latest cases ensuing from highly infectious strains of the virus, Suga aforesaid on
Wednesday the government can decide in the week whether to declare the state of emergency for key
parts of the country.

Analysts say the prospects for Japan’s economy seem bleak within the short term. Since, if adopted
altogether four regions that made requests,such as requests for department stores and alternative big
retailers to close, the emergency measures would cowl nearly a quarter of Japan’s population of 126
million and regarding thirty percent of the gross domestic product (GDP).“The risk of a double-dip
recession has clearly heightened,” aforesaid Hiroshi Shiraishi, senior economic expert at BNP Paribas
Securities. “The impact of imposing curbs on capital of Japan and Osaka alone would be quite big.”

The government is considering imposing state of emergency curbs from april twenty five through May
11, Jiji news organization reported.

(The timing is incorrect)

“The timing isn't good,” because it would hit service spending throughout the spring leisure season, said
Takumi Tsunoda, senior economic expert at Shinkin financial organization analysis Institute.
Japan’s economy has emerged from last year’s severe slump thanks to strong exports.

But analysts expect GDP to have contracted within the first quarter thanks to the hit to consumption
from the second set of emergency curbs unrolled in January. They assert a second consecutive
contraction in the second quarter is possible.

Analysts outline a recession as two straight quarters of negative economic growth.

New restrictions on the state of emergency might have an effect on the Bank of Japan’s quarterly growth
projections expected next week, analysts say.

“Given prospects of strong world demand, the BOJ most likely won’t create huge changes to its forecast
of a moderate recovery,” aforementioned Izuru Kato, chief economic expert at Totan Research.

“But a contraction in second-quarter GDP can’t be dominated out, therefore the BOJ can most likely
issue lots of warnings on the risks to domestic demand,” he said.

Tokyo according 861 new cases on Thursday, the foremost since January twenty nine throughout the
third wave of the pandemic and former state of emergency. Osaka prefecture reported 1,242 daily
infections, close to the record high reported last week.

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