The wind seems to be in the sails of campaigners looking to keep Britain in the EU as, for the

first time in the Brexit crisis, they see signs of the public mood shifting in their favour.
Hundreds of thousands marched in support of EU membership last weekend, and a petition
calling for article 50 to be revoked, reversing Brexit, secured almost 6m signatures in 10 days.
Meanwhile, Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement was voted down for a third time in the
House of Commons on Friday, and a second-referendum proposal was one of the most popular
options in the “indicative vote” process developed by MPs to gauge support for ways to break
the deadlock. A second referendum has never looked nearer and, polling suggests, Remainers
would enter the contest narrowly ahead.
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A range of polling suggests the public have moved in a pro-EU direction since 2016. The polling
average compiled by Sir John Curtice and the body What UK Thinks puts Remain ahead, by 54
to 46, with practically every poll conducted in the past year or so recording a small Remain
lead.

The share of the public who think the Leave vote was “in hindsight the wrong decision” has
slowly crept up, and is now consistently above the share who still believe Britain made the
right choice. Public approval of May’s deal is also exceptionally low, and the share of voters
who think it will deliver a good outcome for Britain has fallen steadily. Time, perhaps, to go
back to the people?
There are certainly good reasons to believe this shift in public opinion is real. The rise in
support for Remain is mainly driven by those who did not vote in 2016, either because they
abstained or were too young. Abstainers and new voters now heavily back Remain, and their
numbers are growing steadily, with about three-quarters of a million new voters joining the
electorate each year.

Meanwhile, the concentration of Leave support among older voters puts Brexit campaigners
on the wrong side of demographic change. There are other headwinds for Brexiters, too.
Concern about immigration, a key driver of voting for Leave in 2016, has declined sharply since
the referendum. And voters who were enthusiastic about Brexit in 2016 have become more
negative about the deal the government has managed to negotiate.
The Remain advantage is, however, narrow and fragile. There has been very little change in
sentiment among those who voted in the referendum, and little evidence that Leave voters
have changed their minds. Instead, Brexit partisanship has consolidated and intensified, with
Leave and Remain voters increasingly seeing their choice as a core part of their political
identity. This makes their views very hard to shift – and those who voted last time are more
certain to turn out again than the former abstainers and new voters driving Remain’s current
polling leads.
Even among Remain voters, enthusiasm for a re-run of the 2016 vote is not overwhelming
There are also risks that the opinion polls could again be off, perhaps overstating the shift to
Remain because they are unable to reach or get truthful responses from more politically
disengaged sections of the electorate, who heavily backed Leave last time, or by
overestimating the enthusiasm of pro-EU demographic groups such as young voters, who may
be overstating their willingness to turn out in a new referendum.
A second referendum would also be divisive. While majorities back the idea when it is
presented as an undefined “people’s vote”, support drops sharply if voters are told that
Remain would be one of the options on the ballot paper. A large majority of Leave voters
oppose the idea once this is made clear, and even among Remain voters enthusiasm for a re-
run of the 2016 vote is not overwhelming.
Brexit study finds significant decrease in diehard leave backers
While the public mood has shifted, the change is modest, and the electorate remains closely
divided. A heated and polarising second Brexit campaign would be sure to further deepen
these divides, but it is unlikely either side would win the kind of decisive victory necessary to
settle the argument. Nor is the current narrow lead for Remain certain to hold up in an intense
and unpredictable campaign.

Currently disengaged Leave voters could mobilise in large numbers, antagonised by what will
doubtless be portrayed as an elite campaign to betray Brexit. Symbols, slogans and slip-ups
could all prove important in shifting the electorate against the EU once again. Those seeing the
shifts in the polls as a harbinger of a victorious “people’s vote” campaign should remember
what happened in 2017 when May called a snap election based on an apparently
insurmountable polling lead. It did not end as expected.
Dr Robert Ford is a professor of politics at the University of Manchester