Engineering Science and Technology, an International Journal xxx (xxxx) xxx

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Engineering Science and Technology,

an International Journal
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jestch

Full Length Article

Evaluation of machine learning methods in predicting optimum tensile

strength of microwave post-cured composite tailored for weight-
sensitive applications
Christian Emeka Okafor a,⇑, Ezekiel Junior Okafor a, Kingsley Okechukwu Ikebudu b
a
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Anambra State, Nigeria
b
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu University, Uli, Anambra State, Nigeria

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: The study evaluated the performance of various machine learning methods in predicting tensile strength
Received 29 October 2020 of microwave post-cured composite tailored for weight-sensitive applications. Using forty six training
Revised 7 February 2021 data pairs from the Box-Behnken design plan, an Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System
Accepted 10 April 2021
(ANFIS) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) were built to predict the optimum tensile strength of poly-
Available online xxxx
urethane wood ash composite. Numerical optimization was done using the graft of ANFIS-MOGA method.
The process control factors considered were particle size, curing time, power level, volume fraction and
Keywords:
curing angle. The predictive accuracy of the evaluated machine learning methods were assessed using
Microwave
ANFIS
Coefficient of Determination (R2), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Average Error (MAE) and
ANN Standard Error of Prediction (SEP). RSM (RMSE = 0.0339, MAE = 0.0002, SEP = 0.0295, R2 = 0.994) and
RSM ANFIS (RMSE = 0.0307, MAE = 0.0098, SEP = 0.0267, R2 = 0.995) models gave higher degree of accuracy
Optimization than ANN model (RMSE = 0.0827, MAE = 0.0124, SEP = 0.0719, R2 = 0.988). The optimization exercise gave
optimal tensile strength of 2.27 MPa at optimum process setting of 177mm particle size, 33 min of curing
time, power level at 411 Watt, 42% volume fraction and 11° curing angle. Complementary trial at the
named optimum process setting conveyed workable results. Furthermore, selecting microwave post-
cured composite for weight-sensitive applications was justified considering that the desirability factor
for polyurethane (42% wood ash) is fairly higher than other material in the same class, this points to
the fact that deployment of the microwave post-cured composite in weigh-sensitive applications could
benefit weight reduction.
Ó 2021 Karabuk University. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC
BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

Introduction Curing is a synthetic cycle that creates the hardening of a rein-

Motivated by innovative and material advances in addition to
the need for augmented energy-proficient transit and containerisa-
tion, weight reduction has become a significant drift that is funda-
mentally pursued by product developers. Material utilizations
where increased weight is considered inimical to performance
and efficiency are generally referred to weight sensitive applica-
tions. Optimally engineered polymer composite is light and excep-
tionally suitable for applications requiring low weight materials;
however, the full potentials of reinforced composite might become
ever more elusive in the absence of controlled post curing of the
material.
⇑ Corresponding author.
E-mail address: ce.okafor@unizik.edu.ng (C.E. Okafor).
Peer review under responsibility of Karabuk University.
forced polymer material. The curing of fiber reinforced composite
comprised of pre-curing stage which is usually undertaken at room
temperature for 24 h and post-curing stage done under the
impacts of electro-magnetic or customary energies. The pre-
curing stage is a solidification stage where reinforced composite
sets according to its mould profile. In this stage, exothermic
response happens, consequently prompting materials to be cross-
connected at room temperature, this may cause the composite to
be fragile in nature because of irregular cross linking of its atoms
[1]. Post-curing enables the material to arrive at its full physical/
mechanical properties. Microwave post-curing provides energy
efficient, fast, volumetric and controllable heating advantages dur-
ing reinforced composite material processing [2]; however there
are several factors that could affect the efficacy of microwave cur-
ing process.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jestch.2021.04.004
2215-0986/Ó 2021 Karabuk University. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V.
This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

Please cite this article as: Christian Emeka Okafor, Ezekiel Junior Okafor and Kingsley Okechukwu Ikebudu, Evaluation of machine learning methods in
predicting optimum tensile strength of microwave post-cured composite tailored for weight-sensitive applications, Engineering Science and Technology,
an International Journal, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jestch.2021.04.004
Christian Emeka Okafor, Ezekiel Junior Okafor and Kingsley Okechukwu Ikebudu
Considering the series of exothermic reactions that occur during
microwave curing of composites, the influence of specific process
factors is highly noticeable on material properties. As curing plays
an important role on strength development and durability of rein-
forced composites, curing time determines how long composites
take to fully cure. Kim et al. [3] established that microwave curing
of reinforced composites has the potential for reducing processing
time. Earlier, Yusoff et al. [4] reported that microwave heating
offers 66.6% reduction in curing time of polymeric composites.
Nevertheless, the optimal curing time is required to guard against
thermal degradation of the matrix, delamination and increased
fibre bridging arising from extreme conditions in which the param-
eters of the curing process were exceeded. This is because curing of
composite material past 800 W may result to matrix scorching and
degradation [5].
Singh and Zafar [6] showed that composites cured at 360 Watts
are 28.26% higher in tensile strength compared to composite sam-
ples cured at 900 Watts. However, an earlier study by Crane et al.
[7] indicated that lower material particle sizes increased micro-
wave energy requirement due to the rise in active surface area.
Ameh, et al. [8] studied the effect of particle size and concentration
on the mechanical properties of composites, authors found a
steady increase in tensile strength as particle size is reduced. Pre-
vious studies have also shown that decreasing the particle size give
rise to stronger compaction which increases tensile strength [9–
11]. Seth et al. [12] observed that improved compaction during
composite development reduce porosity and increase stress trans-
fer across resin and fibre. Similarly, Durowaye et al. [13] reported
that lower particle size and higher volume fraction results to
improved tensile strength of Sisal particles/Polypropylene
composite.
The desire to vary these multiple design variables at material
and process stages of composite development, and necessary
large-scale repeated observations has prompted the need to
explore machine learning strategies in monitoring composite
material response to microwave post-curing conditions. Although
majority of the existing studies may have considered some of these
factors independently and separately [14], much is left unknown
regarding the interaction and second order effects of factors. These
previous studies are characterized by unnecessarily more runs for
the same precision in effect estimation and could have possibly
missed the optimal settings of factors. To address these anomalies,
machine learning which involves the use of man-made reasoning
could be deployed to give systems the capacity to receive data,
improve from learning experience, use it to make predictions and
provide vintage points to undertake numeric optimization.
The study of numerical optimization guides designs, axioms and
utilization of machine learning algorithms. Sacco et al. [15]
reviewed various machine learning methods in optimization com-
posites manufacturing. Chen and Gu [16] presented strategies for
implementation of machine learning principles for effective design,
optimization and development of reinforced composites. Obvi-
ously, developing new materials to accomplish tenable properties
is a significant stand point in data driven design, and machine
learning strategies could be aligned to boost the future optimum
perspectives in material design process. In spite of the fact that
machine learning models are frequently being considered as ‘‘black
box” models, the technique has potentials to provide new palpable
insights into ways of producing resilient and robust composite
materials [16]. Recent exploration of machine learning methods
in material researches by Zhang et al. [17], He et al. [18] and Yang
et al. [19] points to high computing speed advantage of machine
learning techniques compared with other physics-based modeling
tools; literature has also shown how machine learning techniques
can be applied to explore the material design-space to create opti-
mal designs of fiber reinforced composites.
2
Engineering Science and Technology, an International Journal xxx (xxxx) xxx
By knowing the optimal designs, it is possible to probe design
methodologies for realising high-performing composite materials.
Hence the main purpose of this study is to evaluate the capabilities
of machine learning methods (RSM, ANFIS and ANN) in predicting
optimum tensile strength of microwave post-cured composite.
Combined and individual influence of various material and process
based factors on tensile strength of wood ash reinforced polyur-
ethane composite has been established statistically. The most
viable machine learning method was grafted with Multi-
Objective Genetic Algorithm (MOGA) for optimization purposes.
The optimum outcomes were experimentally confirmed and the
new properties compared favourably with existing materials used
in weight-sensitive applications.
1. Materials and methods
1.1. Materials
The waste sawdust of Gmelina arborea was obtained from a
sawmill at Amansea, Awka North Local Government Area of Anam-
bra State, Nigeria and polyurethane resin with accelerator (Cobalt
Octoate) and catalyst (Methyl Ethyl Ketone Peroxide (MEKP) was
supplied by a local vendor in Enugu state, Nigeria. The sawdust
was washed meticulously with distilled water and was spread at
room temperature for 48 h followed by oven drying for one hour
at 60 °C. The dry sawdust was then isolated into three (3) parcels
in an earthen pot and carbonized using an electric furnace at
400 °C for three hours to aid formation of wood ash. The resulting
char was subsequently ground to fine particles using hammer
comminution system. Lab weighing balance was utilized to take
readings of weight of wood ash particulates before sieve analysis.
The sieves were arranged so that those having small aperture are
set at the base while the sieves having bigger aperture are at the
top. The setup was loaded with 200 g of carbonised wood ash par-
ticle and shaken for ten (10) minutes in accordance with BS
1377:1990. After sieving, particle sizes ranging from 75 lm to
300 lm were utilised for reinforcement.
1.2. Composite design and sample development
The Archimedes principle was followed to obtain the volume
fraction of wood ash samples ranging from 30% to 50% in line with
the rule of mixture [20]. Polyurethane resin was measured into a
graduated cylinder containing the corresponding wood ash frac-
tion and then stirred with a mechanical stirrer for 60 s until even
distribution was accomplished, 1% wt of catalyst was then added
and mixed for extra 60 s, after which 2% wt of accelerator was
added and mixed for another 60 s prior to casting into a mould.
A mould having a base of glass and sides made of wood was used
in production of the composite samples; to enable easy evacuation
of the shaped composite sample, a mould release agent was kept
over the glass base plate and wood sides. Care was taken to evade
rising air bubbles during pouring and the mix was subsequently
secured and was permitted to cure at room temperature for 48 h.
1.3. Microwave post-curing and material testing
Post-curing of the polyurethane wood ash composite was car-
ried out using a laboratory-scale microwave oven (Panasonic,
NN-SM332M/W, China). The oven cavity is 315 mm (W)

227 mm (H)
349 mm (D), having a glass tray diameter of
288 mm and operating frequency of 2.45 GHz. Initial calibration
of the oven was done to determine its low and high power levels
in view of the technique for temperature contrast of water con-
tained in two measuring glasses of one liter each as recommended
Christian Emeka Okafor, Ezekiel Junior Okafor and Kingsley Okechukwu Ikebudu
by Buffler [21]. The microwave oven was supplied with handles by
which the curing time can be varied from 0 to 35 min. The sample
was protected with aluminum tape to maintain a strategic distance
from potential arcing and was cured using the Box-Behnken exper-
imental design plan. Tensile test was subsequently carried out in
line with ASTM D3039 using specimen dimension of
250 mm
25 mm
5 mm at 50 mm/min cross-head speed (see
Fig. 1). Also the material density was assessed following ASTM
D792 for density and specific gravity.
1.4. Machine learning models
1.4.1. RSM model
The response surface method (RSM) was applied to generate the
model of material tensile strength using the Design-Expert soft-
ware (v.12). The coefficients of the function were found by mini-
mizing the error in Eq. (1).
X
k X
k X
k X
k
Y ¼ b0 þ b i xi þ bij xi xj þ bii x2i þ e
i¼1 i¼1 j¼1 i¼1
where Y represents the tensile response; b0 ; bi ði ¼ 1; 2;    ::kÞ and
bij ði ¼ 1; 2;    k; j ¼ 1; 2;    kÞ are the model coefficients; while
xi and xj represents the control factors.
The RSM modelling was carried out using the Box-Behnken
design. The values of the six control factors comprising of material
and microwave post-curing variables were given in Table 1.
1.4.2. ANFIS model
The adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS)
which is a well-known hybrid artificial intelligence model was
used. The ANFIS architecture as shown in Fig. 2 followed the orig-
inal model by Jang [22], the network was constructed using five
microwave post curing control parameters (A-Particle Size, B-
Curing time, C-Power Level, D-Volume Fraction, E-Curing Angle)
as input and one output parameter (Y-tensile strength) in accor-
dance with the Sugeno fuzzy structure.
The adopted Sugeno fuzzy rules are stated in Eq. (2):
Ri : IF Particle Size is Z 1j
AND Curing time is Z 2j
AND Power Lev el is Z 3j
AND Volume Fraction is Z 4j
AND Curing Angle is Z 5j
Fig. 1. Photographs of a) carbonized wood ash particulates, b) processed polyurethane/wood ash composite samples, c) setting up of Universal Testing Machine.
Engineering Science and Technology, an International Journal xxx (xxxx) xxx
THEN Y i ¼ f i ðA; B; C; D; EÞ ð2Þ
where Z 1j ; Z 2j ; Z 3j ; Z 4j ; Z 5j fuzzy sets are used for fuzzification of each
input. The first layer in Fig. 2 represents the input layer. The input
layer neurons passes outer signals toward the subsequent layer
referred to as fuzzification layer. Fuzzification is done by neurons
that have the so-called bell-shaped function of Eq. (3) [23]:
1
yi ¼  b ð3Þ
xi ai
1þ ci
where xi represents the input and yi is the output of second layer; ai
is the center control parameter, bi is the width control parameter
and ci is the slope control parameter. Layer three represents the rule
layer and every neuron in this layer adjusts to a solitary Sugeno-
type fuzzy rule depicted in Eq. (2). The combination of the rule fore-
runners is estimated from Eq. (4).
ð1Þ Y
k
yi ¼ xij ¼ lij
lij
  
lik ð4Þ
j¼1
where xij is the input emanating from neuronj in layer two towards
neuron i in layer three, and yi represents the output of layer three.
Layer four represents the output membership function whose neu-
rons receives initial inputs (A-Particle Size, B-Curing time, C-Power
Level, D-Volume Fraction, E-Curing Angle) and subsequently calcu-
late the weighted value using Eq. (5):
yi ¼ xi ðki0 þ ki1 A þ ki2 B þ ki3 C þ ki4 D þ ki5 EÞ
¼ li ðki0 þ ki1 A þ ki2 B þ ki3 C þ ki4 D þ ki5 EÞ ð5Þ
where xi represents the input while yi represents the output of neu-
ron i in layer 4, li is the normalized firing strength for i rule,
th
ki0 ; ki1 ; ki2 ; ki3 ; ki4 and ki5 is a set of coefficients. The fifth and last
layer is a solitary summation neuron which aggregates the output
of all defuzzification neurons and produces the general ANFIS out-
put (tensile strength). MATLAB R2014a was used in constructing
ANFIS model which comprised of 92 nodes, 32 linear parameters
and 20 nonlinear parameters. 46 training data pairs were stream-
lined from the Box-Behnken design matrix (see Table 4 in Sec-
tion 3.3) which resulted in 2 input membership functions each
and 32 discrete fuzzy rules. Data was normalized before the com-
mencement of ANFIS model training session. Grid partitioning strat-
egy was adopted in generating ANFIS input membership function
(‘gaussmf’) and output membership function (‘constant’). The train
FIS optimization method was set to hybrid-learning algorithm and
error tolerance was limited to 0.05.
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Christian Emeka Okafor, Ezekiel Junior Okafor and Kingsley Okechukwu Ikebudu Engineering Science and Technology, an International Journal xxx (xxxx) xxx

Table 1
Material and microwave post-curing variables.

Control factors Units Min. Max. Coded low Coded high

A:Particle Size lm 75 300 1 M 75 +1 M 300
B:Curing time min 5 35 1 M 5 +1 M 35
C:Power Level Watt 286 560 1 M 286 +1 M 560
D:Volume Fraction % 30 50 1 M 30 +1 M 50
E:Curing Angle Deg. 10 80 1 M 10 +1 M 80

 
Xn
yi;exp  yi;pred
MAE ¼ ð6Þ
i¼1
N

vffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
u n
u1 X  2
RMSE ¼ t yi;exp  yi;pred ð7Þ
n i¼1

RMSE
SEP ¼ ð8Þ
yexp;av

Pn  2
yi;pred  yi;exp
R2 ¼ 1  Pn  i¼1 1 Pn 2 ð9Þ
i¼1 yi;pred  n i¼1 yi;exp

where n is the total observations made, p is input variables, ym rep-

Fig. 2. Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) architecture.
resents the average experimental value, yexpr;i is the experimental
response at observation i while and ypred;i is the predicted response
at any observation i.
1.4.3. ANN model
Cascade-forward Back-propagation architecture as shown in
2. Results and discussions
Fig. 3 was implemented in the Artificial Neural Network (ANN)
training for 54 data points using MATLAB R2014a. The network
2.1. Characterisation of post-cured polyurethane wood ash composites
comprise of layers utilizing the ‘netsum’ as the network input func-
tion and ‘dotprod’ as the network dot product weight function rep-
The post-cured polyurethane wood ash composite was charac-
resenting ideal matrix multiplication. The principal layer has a
terised using Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR) and
weight originating from the control factors (A-Particle Size, B-
Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM). The FTIR spectrum of absorp-
Curing time, C-Power Level, D-Volume Fraction, E-Curing Angle)
tion results of carbonised wood reinforced polyurethane composite
in such a way that each resulting layer has weight originating from
is given in Fig. 4. FT-IR spectrum was recorded for lignin
the contributions with every single past layer [24]. The last layer is
(C31H34O11)n, cellulose (C6H10O5)n, polyurethane (C27H36N2O10).
the system yield which represents material tensile strength (out-
The C–H and O–H present in lignin are indicated by the peaks at
put). Weight and biase of layers were initialized using the
668.52 cm1, 828.17 cm1, 1458.09 cm1, 2852.72 cm1 and
Nguyen-Widrow function ‘initnw’. Training of network was carried
2923.42 cm1. Its low intensity shows the removal of lignin from
out using the Levenberg-Marquardt back-propagation algorithm
the wood. The C–H, C = O and O–H present in cellulose are indi-
‘trainlm’ while learning adaption function was set to gradient des-
cated by the peaks at 1653.76 cm1, 2343.47 cm1,
cent with momentum weight learning ‘learngdm’. Hyperbolic 1 1 1
2359.88 cm , 3628.87 cm , and 3649.29 cm . Its low intensity
tangent-sigmoid neuron model ‘tansig’ was then used as the net-
shows the removal of celluloses from the wood. The C–N, N–H
work transfer function.

1.4.4. Statistical indices for the machine learning methods

The predictive veracity of the evaluated machine learning
methods were assessed using Mean Average Error (MAE), Root
Mean Square Error (RMSE), Standard Error of Prediction (SEP)
and Coefficient of determination (R2) as captured in Eqs. (6)–(9).

Fig. 4. Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) image of microwave post-

Fig. 3. Cascade Forward Back-propagation architecture. cured polyurethane wood ash composites.

4
Christian Emeka Okafor, Ezekiel Junior Okafor and Kingsley Okechukwu Ikebudu Engineering Science and Technology, an International Journal xxx (xxxx) xxx

and O–H present in polyurethane are indicated by the peaks at

1037.45 cm1, 1182.33 cm1, 1248.21 cm1, 1507.98 cm1,
1559.47 cm1, 3675.54 cm1 and 3808.90 cm1. The FTIR analysis
confirms the lignin and cellulose removal after carbonisation
resulting to an improvement of the wood/matrix interface
adhesion.
The surface morphology of post-cured polyurethane wood ash
composite was observed by the scanning electron micrograph of
Fig. 5; it shows traces of pores and cavities of different sizes in the
microstructure of the composite. According to Fernlund et al. [25],
there are numerous reasons for porosity in reinforced composite
samples and it is extremely hard to accomplish zero porosity.
Trapped air and off-gassing are possible void sources that advance
porosity. The microstructure of the polyurethane matrix shows
string of irregular structure amidst touching boundaries. However,
Fig. 5 shows that there is proper intimate mixing of carbonised wood
particles with the polyurethane resin. Particles-matrix interface is
an exigent factor that influences reinforced composite properties.
A strong particles-matrix interface bond is essential for high
mechanical properties of reinforced composite [26].

2.2. 3.2 Results of response surface methodology model

An examination of the impacts of control variables at optimum

condition was performed by utilizing the perturbation plot of Fig. 6. Perturbation plot for desirability.
Figs. 6–7. The response was plotted by varying just one variable
over its range while other variables are held constant. The lofty
curvature in A, B, C, indicate that the response (tensile strength)
is sensitive to particle size, curing time and power level. Table 2:
shows the model summary statistics.
From Table 3, the model is significant considering an F-value of
318.82. P-values for factors under 0.0500 show significant model
terms. The Predicted R2 of 0.9792 is in tandem with the Adjusted
R2 of 0.9906. Adeq. Precision of 71.272 shows sufficient signal.
Therefore, this model can be utilized to explore the design space.
Final equations are shown in Eq. (10) in terms of coded factors.
TensileStrength ¼ þ1:09  0:3212A  0:2471B  0:0794C
þ 0:4191D þ 0:3691E þ 0:0701AB
 0:1176AD  0:1001AE  0:0925BD
 0:0775BE þ 0:1275DE þ 0:1364A2
þ 0:1236B2 þ 0:0211D2  0:1139E2 ð10Þ

Fig. 7. Perturbation plot for tensile strength.

The Eq. (11) is presented in terms of actual factors and was

Fig. 5. Scanning electron microscope (SEM) image of microwave post-cured
polyurethane wood ash composites at 100 mm magnification.
used to make predictions shown in Table 4. The positive coeffi-
cient for the volume fraction, curing angle, interaction between
particle size and curing time, and second order effects of particle
size and curing time indicate that an increase in these factors
will increase the tensile strength, while a decrease in particle
size, curing time, power level, associated interaction and second
order effects will increase tensile strength due to their negative
coefficient.

5
Christian Emeka Okafor, Ezekiel Junior Okafor and Kingsley Okechukwu Ikebudu Engineering Science and Technology, an International Journal xxx (xxxx) xxx

Table 2
Model summary statistics.

Model SD R2 Adj. R2 Pred. R2 (PRESS) statistic Remark

Linear 0.1428 0.9044 0.8924 0.8698 1.10 Reject

2FI 0.1376 0.9334 0.9001 0.8227 1.51 Reject
Quadratic 0.0410 0.9951 0.9911 0.9803 0.1682 Suggested
Cubic 0.0113 0.9999 0.9993 0.9904 0.0816 Aliased

Table 3
Analysis of variance (ANOVA) for Reduced Quadratic model.

Source Sum of Squares df Mean Square F-value p-value

Model 8.47 15 0.5650 318.82 <0.0001
A-Particle Size 1.65 1 1.65 931.80 <0.0001
B-Curing time 0.9770 1 0.9770 551.31 <0.0001
C-Power Level 0.1008 1 0.1008 56.89 <0.0001
D-Volume Fraction 2.81 1 2.81 1586.14 <0.0001
E-Curing Angle 2.18 1 2.18 1229.89 <0.0001
AB 0.0197 1 0.0197 11.10 0.0023
AD 0.0554 1 0.0554 31.24 <0.0001
AE 0.0401 1 0.0401 22.61 <0.0001
BD 0.0342 1 0.0342 19.31 0.0001
BE 0.0240 1 0.0240 13.56 0.0009
DE 0.0650 1 0.0650 36.69 <0.0001
A2 0.1754 1 0.1754 98.95 <0.0001
B2 0.1441 1 0.1441 81.33 <0.0001
D2 0.0042 1 0.0042 2.38 0.1336
E2 0.1222 1 0.1222 68.98 <0.0001
Residual 0.0532 30 0.0018
Lack of Fit 0.0532 25 0.0021
Pure Error 0.0000 5 0.0000
Cor Total 8.53 45

Std. Dev. = 0.042, Mean = 1.15, C.V. %3.66, R2 = 0.993, Adj. R2 = 0.9906, Pred. R2 = 0.979, Adeq Prec. = 71.27.

TensileStrength ¼ 0:012605  0:002401A  0:014936B
 0:000579C þ 0:040554D þ 0:012058E
þ 0:000042A  B  0:000105A  D
 0:000025A  E  0:000617B  D
 0:000148B  E þ 0:000364D  E
þ 0:000011A2 þ 0:000549B2
þ 0:000211D2  0:000093E2
Fig. 8 is a graphical assessment which compares the nature of
the residuals demonstrating the connection between the explora-
tory and the anticipated data. It shows that the points were firmly
circulated to the straight line of the plot. Consequently, it is rea-
soned that the residuals followed a normal distribution. The Nor-
mal plot of residuals indicated negligible disparity of the points
from the diagonal and is solidly adjusted to the straight line of
the plot.
2.3. 3.3 Results of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system model
Forty six data sets extracted from Box-Behnken experimental
plan was applied for training; 36 (78.26%) of the data was used
for checking while 10 (21.74%) for testing. Data for checking and
testing are selected randomly. The model was tasted using altered
epochs till the Mean Squared Error (MSE) got steady after the ini-
tial training cycle with an estimation of 0.000946. The examination
of the tensile strength predicted by ANFIS model and actual for
training dataset is shown in Fig. 9a. It can be seen that the plotting
of the FIS prediction matches closely with the plotting of the train-
ing data.
The ANFIS model testing dataset is shown in Fig. 9b. In this case,
the average testing error is 0.0011. The ANFIS results are closely
correlated with the experimental results with coefficient (R2) val-
ues of 0.9949. Results show a profoundly satisfactory correlation
coefficient between the predicted and experimental information
which means that the created ANFIS model can be applied as an
excellent instrument for predicting tensile strength of microwave
post-cured composite. Surface and contour plots have been created
in MATLAB by furnishing the ANFIS model with lattices of the input
parameters. In this investigation, two out of the five input param-
eters were examined at a time and their effects on tensile strength
of microwave post-cured composite are shown in three dimen-
ð11Þ
sional surface plots of Figs. 10 and 11.
Fig. 10a showed that tensile strength increases as particle size
(mm) tickles down to 100 mm; previous studies have shown that
decreasing the particle size give rise to stronger compaction [10]
and stronger compaction increases tensile strength without affect-
ing the tensile modulus [9]. From Fig. 10a, the tensile strength
increased steadily up to 2.26 MPa at the lowest curing time of
5 min; this is in line with the observations by Kim et al. [3] who
achieved optimum properties of polymer composite at lower
microwave processing time. Notably, the fiber–matrix adhesion is
usually compromised as microwave processing time increases
leading to decrease in mechanical properties [27].
As shown in Fig. 10b tensile strength increase slightly as power
level decreases from 500 Watts to 300 Watts, this might be
because of degradation of the strength-giving cellulose and break-
ing of fiber cells arising from increased microwave radiation [28]. A
similar report was also made by Singh et al. [29] who found that
composites cured at 360 Watts was 28.26% higher in tensile
strength compared to composite samples cured at 900 Watts.
Fig. 11a shows that the tensile strength increased gradually
from 30% volume fraction up till 40% and remained constant at
0.8 MPa; the reason for this increment can be attributed to higher
fiber packing effect which is more pronounced at higher volume
fraction leading to improved strength [30]. Adeodu et al. [1]
reported similar improvement in tensile strength from
6
Christian Emeka Okafor, Ezekiel Junior Okafor and Kingsley Okechukwu Ikebudu Engineering Science and Technology, an International Journal xxx (xxxx) xxx

Table 4
Box-Behnken design matrix with actual and predicted responses.

Run order Control factors Actual Value (MPa) RSM ANFIS ANN
A (mm) B (min) C (Watt) D (%) E (Deg.) Pred. Value Residual Pred. Value Residual Pred. Value Residual
1 188 35 423 40 10 0.57 0.56 0.01 0.57 0 0.54 0.03
2 75 20 423 30 45 1.00 1.04 0.04 0.9 0.1 1.09 0.09
3 75 35 423 40 45 1.37 1.36 0.01 1.35 0.02 1.35 0.02
4 188 20 423 40 45 1.08 1.09 0.01 1.09 0.01 1.06 0.02
5 188 20 423 40 45 1.08 1.09 0.01 1.09 0.01 1.06 0.02
6 75 20 423 40 80 1.88 1.91 0.03 1.87 0.01 1.93 0.05
7 188 5 423 50 45 2.02 1.99 0.03 2.03 0.01 1.92 0.10
8 75 20 423 50 45 2.14 2.11 0.03 2.12 0.02 1.99 0.15
9 188 20 423 30 10 0.41 0.34 0.07 0.41 0 0.51 0.10
10 188 20 423 40 45 1.08 1.09 0.01 1.09 0.01 1.06 0.02
11 75 20 423 40 10 0.90 0.97 0.07 0.8 0.1 1.10 0.20
12 188 20 286 30 45 0.76 0.77 0.01 0.76 0 0.82 0.06
13 188 20 423 30 80 0.86 0.82 0.04 0.86 0 0.88 0.02
14 188 20 423 50 10 0.89 0.92 0.03 0.89 0 0.90 0.01
15 188 5 423 40 80 1.77 1.79 0.02 1.77 0 1.68 0.09
16 188 20 423 40 45 1.08 1.09 0.01 1.09 0.01 1.06 0.02
17 188 20 423 40 45 1.08 1.09 0.01 1.09 0.01 1.06 0.02
18 188 35 423 30 45 0.63 0.66 0.03 0.63 0 0.54 0.09
19 188 5 423 30 45 0.94 0.97 0.03 0.94 0 0.92 0.02
20 188 35 423 50 45 1.34 1.32 0.02 1.34 0 1.33 0.01
21 300 5 423 40 45 1.21 1.21 0.00 1.11 0.1 1.11 0.10
22 188 20 286 50 45 1.63 1.61 0.02 1.64 0.01 1.81 0.18
23 188 20 286 40 80 1.44 1.43 0.01 1.44 0 1.63 0.19
24 188 20 560 40 10 0.60 0.53 0.07 0.6 0 0.58 0.02
25 188 20 423 40 45 1.08 1.09 0.01 1.09 0.01 1.06 0.02
26 188 5 423 40 10 0.85 0.90 0.05 0.85 0 0.80 0.05
27 188 20 560 50 45 1.42 1.45 0.03 1.43 0.01 1.43 0.01
28 300 35 423 40 45 0.80 0.86 0.06 0.7 0.1 0.70 0.10
29 300 20 423 30 45 0.59 0.63 0.04 0.58 0.01 0.60 0.01
30 188 35 286 40 45 1.04 1.05 0.01 1.04 0 1.00 0.04
31 75 5 423 40 45 2.06 1.99 0.07 2.05 0.01 1.89 0.17
32 300 20 560 40 45 0.85 0.83 0.02 0.84 0.01 0.80 0.05
33 188 35 423 40 80 1.18 1.15 0.03 1.18 0 1.17 0.01
34 188 35 560 40 45 0.91 0.89 0.02 0.91 0 0.70 0.21
35 300 20 423 40 10 0.53 0.53 0.00 0.52 0.01 0.50 0.03
36 188 20 560 40 80 1.25 1.27 0.02 1.26 0.01 1.24 0.01
37 188 5 286 40 45 1.57 1.54 0.03 1.58 0.01 1.67 0.10
38 75 20 560 40 45 1.45 1.47 0.02 1.44 0.01 1.44 0.01
39 188 20 560 30 45 0.66 0.62 0.04 0.66 0 0.61 0.05
40 188 5 560 40 45 1.37 1.38 0.01 1.36 0.01 1.30 0.07
41 300 20 423 50 45 1.26 1.23 0.03 1.24 0.02 1.25 0.01
42 75 20 286 40 45 1.67 1.63 0.04 1.66 0.01 1.69 0.02
43 300 20 286 40 45 0.98 0.99 0.01 0.97 0.01 0.90 0.08
44 300 20 423 40 80 1.11 1.06 0.05 1.1 0.01 1.09 0.02
45 188 20 286 40 10 0.69 0.69 0.00 0.68 0.01 0.74 0.05
46 188 20 423 50 80 1.85 1.91 0.06 1.86 0.01 1.85 0.00

0.0032 MPa to 0.0040 MPa as volume fraction of carbon black rein-
forced polyester composite increased from 10% to 20%. From
Fig. 11b, tensile strength increased with an increase in curing Angle
E (deg) from 10 deg to 65 deg and remained constant at 1.7 MPa till
80 deg. This result is in compliance with the results by Bin-Yaakob
et al. [31] who reported that samples at 0° (horizontal) curing
angle had lower mechanical properties compared to specimen
cured at 60°. The results of ANFIS model shown in Figs. 10 and
11 correlates with the perturbation plot and the fitted regression
model of tensile strength obtained using RSM of Design-Expert
software.
predictive accuracy is enhanced as MSE value gets closer to zero.
Fig. 12 respectively shows the correlation plot for network training,
validation, testing and the whole dataset with R-Squared values of
0.988, 0.995, 0.992 and 0.982. These correlation coefficient values
are very close to unity which is an indication of very good fit.
The data is fairly aligned within a 45° boundary where input and
target matched.
Fig. 13 shows the best validation performance was 0.00373 at
epoch 6. The performance plot shows no problem of over fitting
as the validation and test curves are comparable and are close to
the best fit. Also the error was very small.

2.4. Results of artificial neural network model 2.5. Comparison of RSM, ANFIS and ANN models

The implementation of ANN methodology in predicting tensile
strength of microwave post-cured composite showed very good
abilities of the network to learn the patterns corresponding to
material characteristics of reinforced composites with an Mean
Square Error (MSE) value of 0.00684. This is comparable to the
findings of Khalefa [32] who obtained an MSE of 0.0335 for Al-Si
alloys synthesized by stir casting. Hunt et al. [33] noted that model
7
RSM, ANFIS and ANN models were compared in Table 5. It is
seen that except for MAE value which is lower in RSM, all of the
statistical values in Table 5 indicate a precise surmising intelli-
gence of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System. ANFIS accom-
plishes a superior prediction than the RSM and ANN in
microwave post-curing process of composite. This could be as a
result of the fact that ANN is exceptionally susceptible to insuffi-
Christian Emeka Okafor, Ezekiel Junior Okafor and Kingsley Okechukwu Ikebudu
Fig.8. Predicted vs Actual plots.
Fig. 9. Plot of (a) predicted by ANFIS model vs experiments for training dataset (b)
ANFIS model testing.
cient and rowdy information and cannot discover exact spatial
connection between the factors while existing datasets are noisy
and deficient [34]. This outcome is in line with past discoveries
8
Engineering Science and Technology, an International Journal xxx (xxxx) xxx
Fig. 10. Surface view showing (a) influence of Curing time and Particle Size on
tensile strength (b) influence of Volume Fraction and microwave power Level on
tensile strength.
which demonstrated a higher forecasting viability from ANFIS con-
trasted with the RSM and ANN [35]. Apart from MAE index of
0.0002 which shows viability of RSM model, all other error indica-
tors suggests that a factual prediction of tensile strength of the
material could be achieved by using ANFIS model.
Table 5 also shows that the RMSE value for RSM, ANFIS and
ANN is 0.0339, 0.0307 and 0.0827, respectively, while the R2 val-
ues for RSM, ANFIS and ANN is 0.994, 0.995 and 0.988 respec-
tively. This point out that ANFIS shows an exceptionally
promising degree of precision in predicting tensile strength of
microwave post-cured composite, a general improvement con-
trasted with the ANN technique. Although ANFIS is more fitting
than RSM and ANN as per exactness, the three models supple-
ment each other in explaining the material response to micro-
wave post-curing conditions. While ANN is more dependable in
catching the nonlinear connection between the tensile strength
and microwave post-curing parameters, RSM and ANFIS shows
the statistical significance and interaction of factors based on
analysis of variance (ANOVA) and three dimensional surface plots
respectively.
Christian Emeka Okafor, Ezekiel Junior Okafor and Kingsley Okechukwu Ikebudu
Fig. 11. Surface view showing (a) influence of Volume Fraction and Curing Angle on
tensile strength (b) influence of Curing time and Curing Angle on tensile strength.
2.6. Numerical optimization by graft of ANFIS – MOGA method
Optimization of tensile strength of microwave post-cured com-
posite was carried out in line with the set objectives and con-
straints. ANFIS model was considered for further optimization
program because of its established adequacy in predicting tensile
strength of microwave post-cured composite. The obtained ANFIS
model was streamlined into ANSYSÒ (Ver.15) optimizer for assess-
ment of the best combination of control factor levels and the opti-
mum tensile response using the Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm
(MOGA). MOGA is a modified version of Non-dominated Sorted
Genetic Algorithm-II (NSGA-II) established through restrained elit-
ism theory [36]. Optimization parameters used in the present
study are declared in Table 6.
The solution was achieved after 2 iterations and system con-
verged after 142 evaluations for 5 candidate points. The optimal
combination of control factor levels and the optimum tensile
response determined by ANFIS-MOGA optimization are shown in
Table 7. Table 7 and Fig. 14 shows the five candidate points for
the global optimal. Therefore, the choice of the data in Table 8 as
the global optimal conditions was govern by logical tradeoffs
among the candidate points, guided by economic considerations.
Figs. 15 and 16 shows the trade-off chart for various factors
indicating feasible design points, these feasible points represent
the robust process parameter region defined by particle size values
9
Engineering Science and Technology, an International Journal xxx (xxxx) xxx
in the region between 174.13 mm and 195.41 mm, curing time
between 32.38 min and 36.37 min, power level between 392.12
Watt-430.19 Watt, volume fraction between 41.8% and 42.12%
and curing angle between 10.23 ° and 10.97°.
Corresponding confirmation experiments conducted at 177 mm
particle size, 33 min of curing time, power level at 411 (Watt),
42% volume fraction and 11° curing angle gave a tensile strength
of 2.34 MPa which is in reasonable accord with the statistical
results of 2.27 MPa, showing that they are reasonable conditions.
In this way, it is suggested that the optimum tensile strength of
microwave post-cured Gmelina arborea wood ash reinforced poly-
urethane composite tailored for weight-sensitive applications is
achievable at the given optimal conditions in Table 7.
2.7. Applications and prospects of polyurethane/wood ash composites
Light weight reinforced composite configuration is a widely
investigated and used concept in numerous businesses, particu-
larly in aviation applications and automotive industries. The wood
ash reinforced polyurethane composite developed in this study is
favourably comparable to various other materials (Table 8) used
in the design of cores for sandwich structures, footwear and con-
struction of weight sensitive furniture.
Selecting microwave post-cured composite for weight-sensitive
applications is justified considering that its established material
properties are suitable for sandwich core and footwear applica-
tions; low density characteristics adds as meagre as conceivable
to the overall weight of the material. Additionally, selection of
the material is also possible in the light of commensurate density
and stiffness. The least difficult selection tool when candidate
materials are to be compared is the utilization of desirability factor
Df which is a function of material performance indices. These
indices can be positioned to proffer an unbiased guess of suitability
and effectiveness of a material in different generic profile [38]. The
microwave post-cured composite is therefore compared with other
materials in Table 9 with respect to their desirability function.
Ihueze et al. [39] reported that material with highest desirability
value is usually selected. The desirability functions were thus cal-
culated using material properties depicted in Table 8. It can be
observed from Table 9 that desirability factor for polyurethane
(40% wood ash) is fairly higher than other material in the same
class, this point to the fact that deployment of the microwave
post-cured composite in weigh-sensitive applications could benefit
weight reduction and energy saving.
3. Conclusion
The present work has illustrated the performance of various
machine learning methods in predicting tensile strength of micro-
wave post-cured composite. The study provides optimal model
that capture sundry ranges of control factors relevant in micro-
wave assisted composite development. As such, the following con-
clusions were drawn:
The RSM modeling was carried out using the Box-Behnken
design while ANFIS and ANN analysis followed Takagi-Sugeno
Fuzzy and Cascade-forward Back-propagation architectures
respectively. The RSM, ANFIS and ANN models were compared
using relevant error function which shows that RSM and ANFIS
have preferred performance abstraction than ANN. It was discov-
ered that ANN (MSE = 0.00684) and RSM (MSE = 0.00115) predict
the tensile strength with larger MSE than ANFIS
(MSE = 0.000946); this suggests that ANN and RSM could be
deployed as primal decision models while ANFIS model is recom-
mended for use in optimization of tensile strength of microwave
post-cured composite.
Christian Emeka Okafor, Ezekiel Junior Okafor and Kingsley Okechukwu Ikebudu Engineering Science and Technology, an International Journal xxx (xxxx) xxx

Training: R=0.98772 Validation: R=0.99526

Output ~= 0.93*Target + 0.055

Output ~= 1*Target + -0.011

2 Data 1.8 Data
Fit Fit
1.6
Y=T Y=T
1.5 1.4
1.2
1
1
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.5 1 1.5 2 0.5 1 1.5
Tensile strength(MPa) Tensile strength(MPa)

Test: R=0.9923 All: R=0.98168

Output ~= 1.5*Target + -0.59

Output ~= 0.98*Target + 0.014

1.8 Data 2 Data
Fit Fit
1.6
Y=T Y=T
1.4 1.5
1.2
1 1
0.8

0.6 0.5
0.5 1 1.5 0.5 1 1.5 2
Tensile strength(MPa) Tensile strength(MPa)

Fig. 12. Regression plot of the ANN model at 6 Epochs.

Table 5
Best Validation Performance is 0.0037331 at epoch 6 Comparison between statistical indices for RSM, ANFIS and ANN models.
0
10
Train Indices RSM ANFIS ANN
Validation
Test RMSE 0.0339 0.0307 0.0827
-1
10 MAE 0.0002 0.0098 0.0124
Best
Mean Squared Error (mse)

SEP 0.0295 0.0267 0.0719

R2 0.994 0.995 0.988
-2
10

Table 6
-3 Parameters used in the Optimization scheme.
10
S/N Parameter Setting
1 Type of initial sampling Optimal space-filling
-4
10 2 Random generator seed 0
3 Maximum number of cycle 10
4 Number of initial cycle 100
-5
5 Number of initial sample 46
10 6 Maximum allowable Pareto % 70
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
7 Convergence stability percentage 90
12 Epochs 8 Maximum number of iteration 1000
9 Mutation probability 0.01
Fig.13. Neural Network performance analysis. 10 Crossover probability 0.98
11 Maximum number of candidates 5

The experimental results showed that an increase in the volume

fraction and curing angle in the fitted regression model increases The optimization exercise implemented through a graft of
the tensile strength while a decrease in particle size, curing time Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm (MOGA) and ANFIS model gave
and power level increases the tensile strength. the optimal tensile strength of microwave post-cured composite

10
Christian Emeka Okafor, Ezekiel Junior Okafor and Kingsley Okechukwu Ikebudu Engineering Science and Technology, an International Journal xxx (xxxx) xxx

Table 7
Optimal combination of control factor levels and the optimum tensile response determined by ANFIS- MOGA optimization.

Parameters Candt Point 1 Candt Point 2 Candt Point 3 Candt Point 4 Candt Point 5
P1-Particle Size (mm) 190.47 176.79 174.13 195.41 191.23
P2-Curing time (min) 35.945 32.935 36.365 32.375 34.265
P3-Power level (Watt) 411.58 410.73 430.19 399.74 392.12
P4-Volume fraction (%) 42.76 42.12 42.28 41.8 43.88
P5-Curing angle (Deg.) 10.97 10.85 10.81 10.77 10.23
P6-Tensile strength (MPa) 2.27 2.27 2.27 2.27 2.27

Fig.15. Trade-off chart for curing time (min) vs Volume fraction (%) vs tensile
Fig. 14. Spider chart showing five candidate points found for the global optimal. strength.

and a complementary trial at the named optimum process setting

conveyed workable results. The graft of ANFIS-MOGA method was
established as a surpass approach for optimization of tensile
strength of microwave post-cured composite.
Finally, selecting microwave post-cured composite for weight-
sensitive applications was justified and deployment of the devel-
oped composite in weigh-sensitive applications was advocated.
The procedure developed in the present study can be generalized
for quick forecast of material properties during microwave curing
of composites.

Declaration of Competing Interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing finan-

cial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared
to influence the work reported in this paper.
Fig. 16. Trade-off chart for particle size (mm) vs power level (Watt) vs tensile
strength.

Table 8
Family of light weight reinforced composites.

S/ Properties polyurethane Aluminum-SiC Polyurethane (30% PAN Polyurethane (30% Polyurethane (50% Polyurethane (60%
N (40% wood ash) Foam (0.07)* Carbon Fiber)* Long Glass Fiber)* Long Glass Fiber)* Long Glass Fiber)*
1 Young’s 7.451 57.5 3445 7585 1630 16,450
modulus E
(MPa)
2 Yield strength 2.019 0.038 71.8 133.5 179 192.5
ry (MPa)
3 Density q(g/ 1.58 0.068 1.33 1.43 1.63 1.76
cm3)

*Source [37].

11
Christian Emeka Okafor, Ezekiel Junior Okafor and Kingsley Okechukwu Ikebudu Engineering Science and Technology, an International Journal xxx (xxxx) xxx

Table 9
Material performance indices for minimizing weight.

Desirability Material polyurethane Aluminium-SiC Polyurethane (30% Polyurethane (30% Polyurethane (50% Polyurethane (60%
factorDf indices (42% wood ash) Foam (0.07) PAN Carbon Fiber) Long Glass Fiber) Long Glass Fiber) Long Glass Fiber)

Local, q 0.212052 0.001183 0.000386 0.000189 0.001000 0.000107

E
Stiffness
Panel, q 0.808945 0.017618 0.088062 0.072781 0.138503 0.069203
E1=3
stiffness
Beam, q 0.578828 0.008968 0.022660 0.016419 0.040373 0.013722
E1=2
stiffness

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