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MC MATH 15
OVERVIEW
Welcome to the amazing world of statistics! You might be thinking that the topic is just about a bunch of charts,
graphs, and odd-looking formulas, but in fact, it is a fascinating and challenging field of study. In this course, we
will indeed study those charts and graphs, and yes, that array of complex formulas. But beyond those tools, we will
find an entire new way of thinking, a new way of approaching and understanding the world around us. We will learn
why taking aspirin helps lower the risk and severity of a heart attack; how researchers have determined that the more
friends you have on a social networking site, the more likely you are to have fewer friends in real life; and how
political pollsters almost always know the outcome of an election even before the polls open. This module
describes advanced statistical topics. This includes binomial test and one sample test.
LEARNING OUTCOMES
Abstraction
The binomial test is useful to test hypotheses about the probability of success where is a user-defined value
between 0 and 1.
If in a sample of size there are successes, while we expect, the formula of the binomial distribution gives the probability
of finding this value:
If, we need to find the cumulative probability, if we need. The value of the test is then twice this value.
One common use of the binomial test is in the case where the null hypothesis is that two categories are equally
likely to occur (such as a coin toss), implying a null hypothesis. Tables are widely available to give the significance
observed numbers of observations in the categories for this case. However, as the example below shows, the binomial
test is not restricted to this case.
When there are more than two categories, and an exact test is required, the multinomial test, based on
the multinomial distribution, must be used instead of the binomial test.
For large samples such as the example below, the binomial distribution is well approximated by convenient
continuous distributions, and these are used as the basis for alternative tests that are much quicker to compute,
Pearson's chi-squared test and the G-test. However, for small samples these approximations break down, and there is
no alternative to the binomial test. The most usual (and easiest) approximation is through the standard normal
distribution, in which a z-test is performed of the test statistic, given by where is the number of successes observed
Example:
Suppose we have a board game that depends on the roll of one die and attaches special importance to rolling a 6. In a
particular game, the die is rolled 235 times, and 6 comes up 51 times. If the die is fair, we would expect 6 to come up
times. We have now observed that the number of 6s is higher than what we would expect on average by pure chance
had the die been a fair one. But, is the number significantly high enough for us to conclude anything about the
fairness of the die? This question can be answered by the binomial test. Our null hypothesis would be that the die is
fair (probability of each number coming up on the die is 1/6).
To find an answer to this question using the binomial test, we use the binomial distribution with pmf.
As we have observed a value greater than the expected value, we could consider the probability of observing 51 6s
or higher under the null, which would constitute a one-tailed test (here we are basically testing whether this die is
biased towards generating more 6s than expected). In order to calculate the probability of 51 or more 6s in a sample
of 235 under the null hypothesis we add up the probabilities of getting exactly 51 6s, exactly 52 6s, and so on up to
probability of getting exactly 235 6s:
If we have a significance level of 5%, then this result (0.02654 < 5%) indicates that we have evidence that is
significant enough to reject the null hypothesis that the die is fair.
Normally, when we are testing for fairness of a die, we are also interested if the die is biased towards generating
fewer 6s than expected, and not only more 6s as we considered in the one-tailed test above. In order to consider both
the biases, we use a two-tailed test. Note that to do this we cannot simply double the one-tailed p-value unless the
probability of the event is 1/2. This is because the binomial distribution becomes asymmetric as that probability
deviates from 1/2. There are two methods to define the two-tailed p-value. One method is to sum the probability that
the total deviation in numbers of events in either direction from the expected value is either more than or less than
the expected value. The probability of that occurring in our example is 0.0437. The second method involves
computing the probability that the deviation from the expected value is as unlikely as or more unlikely than the
observed value, i.e. from a comparison of the probability density functions. This can create a subtle difference, but in
this example yields the same probability of 0.0437. In both cases, the two-tailed test reveals significance at the 5%
level, indicating that the number of 6s observed was significantly different for this die than the expected number at
the 5% level.
One Sample t Test
The One Sample t Test determines whether the sample mean is statistically different from a known or hypothesized
population mean. The One Sample t Test is a parametric test.
This test is also known as:
Single Sample t Test
The variable used in this test is known as:
Test variable
In a One Sample t Test, the test variable is compared against a "test value", which is a known or hypothesized value
of the mean in the population.
The second section, One-Sample Test, displays the results most relevant to the One Sample t Test.
KEY POINTS
The binomial test is useful to test hypotheses about the probability of success where is a user-defined
value between 0 and 1.
The One Sample t Test determines whether the sample mean is statistically different from a known or
hypothesized population mean. The One Sample t Test is a parametric test.
LOOKING AHEAD
SELF-EVALUATION
Rate the extent of your learning in this module using the scale blow. Check the column corresponding to
your rating in the space provided. Do not hesitate to contact me if you need further assistance.
4- I’m an expert. I understand and can teach a friend about it.
3-I’m a Practioner. I understand and can cite examples on the topics given.
2- I’m an apprentice. I understand if I get help or look at more examples.
1- I’m a novice. I do not understand the topic.
My learning: 1 2 3 4
I can now
REFERENCES
Now that you have finished the review of the various concepts outlined above, it is now time for an assessment to see
how far you have improved. Write your answers on the blank space provided for each question.
Direction: TRUE or FALSE. Analyse the following statements. Write TRUE if the statement is false and write
FALSE if the statement is true
FALSE 1. The binomial test is useful to test hypotheses about the probability of success where
is a user-defined value between 0 and 1.
FALSE 2. The binomial distribution is well approximated by convenient continuous
distributions,
FALSE 3. The One Sample t Test is a parametric test.
FALSE 4. In a One Sample t Test, the test variable is compared against a "test value", which is
a known or hypothesized value of the mean in the population.
FALSE 5. The One Sample t Test can only compare a single sample mean to a specified
constant.
FALSE 6. The One Sample t Test is commonly used to test the statistical difference between a
sample mean and a known or hypothesized value of the mean in the population.
FALSE 7. Tables are widely available to give the significance observed numbers of
observations in the categories for this case.
FALSE 8. When there are more than two categories, and an exact test is required, the
multinomial test, based on the multinomial distribution, must be used instead of the binomial test.
FALSE 9. The One Sample t Test cannot compare sample means between two or more groups.
FALSE 10. Statistical difference between the sample mean of the test variable and chance.
FALSE 11. In a One Sample t Test, the test variable is compared against a "test value", which
is a known or hypothesized value of the mean in the population.
FALSE 12. The null hypothesis (H0) and (two-tailed) alternative hypothesis (H1) of the one
sample T test can be expressed as:
H0: µ = x ("the sample mean is equal to the [proposed] population mean")
H1: µ ≠ x ("the sample mean is not equal to the [proposed] population mean")